Dean Polls 5% Behind Bush.

[reprehensor]

But remember, 'Dean Can't Win'.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[rumguy]

1. Dean is doomed! Doomed I say!

He's to liberal! He can't win the South! He's out of touch with the Nascar dads! He's angry!

Fuck it. I like several candidates, including Dean, but I am so sick of hearing that Dean can't win...if he makes the right choices he stands a good chance, and this poll proves it.

[goforit]

7. I suggest you go see the LORD of THE RINGS!!!......

No one even Frodo could believe that they could succeed.

It is so early and hasn't even begun.......
And if Dean can't do it none of them can.

Dig deep within and search for your belief and be patient.

And if Bush wins then it is truely the
PEOPLE'S Responsibility to Change the course from then on.

[chasqui]

19. I cannot believe you are comparing Dean to Frodo.

(a) You need to see better movies
(b) Apples & oranges
(c) Compare Dean to someone less goofy: I propose Truman (DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN)

[goforit]

23. You need to RE-read what I said.

(a)I never said Dean was Frodo.

(b)I was speaking to the other poster in his reference that
he/she sees the presidential race as a DOOMs day situation. In the Lord of the Rings, Mordor lost and everyone lived happily ever after.

(c)Dean is better than Truman and more like Franklin D Rosevelt

(d)Your literal perception may be off

[are_we_united_yet]

24. One comment...

I think the DOOMSDAY poster was being sarcastic. I think he does believe Dean can win.

[fjc]

30. I'd say that's good company..

Frodo turns out to be the bravest and most capable of all the characters in the film. He has an unasailable moral character and an unshakeable devotion to duty and above all, his friends.

[adamrsilva]

2. As I said earlier, on the electability issue

Perception versus reality is very telling here.

[Catch22Dem]

3. DU is so wishy-washy

In the course of 24 hours you'll have 100 people saying polls are meaningless and 100 more using polls to reinforce their opinion. It's funny.

[markses]

10. You'd prefer 200 saying the same thing?

There's a lot of folks here, after all. There is no "DU," strictly speaking.

[Catch22Dem]

22. I think that was my point

Unless I screwed up somewhere.

[sendero]

28. they...

... are meaningless if they go against you and important if they don't. What is so hard to understand?

:)

BTW - I recently read that at this stage of the game Clinton polled really horribly against Bush 41.

It's not only polls I am skeptical of. It is the very idea that a year in advance of the vote that matters any predictions have any value whatsoever.

There are things that can happen, not even long shots, just little events - that turn a political race on its ear. There is no way to predict these things hence all predictions of the sort of "Bush has it sewn up" or "Dean can't win" are ridiculous and indicate a less than fully functional brain IMHO.

[Danieljay]

29. does it matter if the voting machines are rigged?

after the last election I have little faith in the system. How will we really know...especially if there isn't a paper trail to verify.

[seventhson]

4. He is within 1% given the margin of error

I do not know if Bush could be 4 points down and Dean four points up under these stats making Dean possibly ahead -- but that looks like a dead heat to me.

After he wins the primaries I believe it will be almost a cakewalk.

America is sick as shit of the Bushes and their Bush-shit!

We really are.

And I am hopeful again!

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Yes thuis is a statistical dead heat

[truthisfreedom]

6. rove's early announcement about wanting Dean has backfired on the pukes.

he's built-in complacency as part of the 'puke viewpoint, and now he doesn't know how to undo it.

[goforit]

9. Thanks to all that bashing..........Dean can elevate himself above it.

I wonder what evil powers lurks from the land of Mordor
at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Hmmmmmm........Dean is prepared!!

[Unforgiven]

18. Is

Dean prepared, that's my worry. :(

[BeyondGeography]

8. And Lieberman is only 6% down

So he might be even closer than Howard, if his numbers are skewing low and Howard's are high. What does that mean?

Another thing to think about: Bush hasn't been hitting back at Howard or anybody for that matter. What the Pubs have in store for Howard will make these past two weeks look like a love-fest.

I like that our guys are close, but we've been doing all the bashing. This poll is meaningless.

[Jack Rabbit]

11. This is very encouraging news

While I am still not committing, Dean is our front running candidate and he is within striking distance. The poll was taken as Saddam was captured.

This is excellent.

[Dems Will Win]

12. Dean is probably AHEAD in this poll, notice how they switched from

registered voters in the last surveys to likely voters in this one. Since likelys are always more conservative, my bet is that Dean was tied or AHEAD of Bush in this CNN poll. Plus, the poll CANNOT BE FOUND ANYWHERE ON THE CNN TIME WEB SITES!!!!!!

Look at the pollingreport stats again:

-snip-

CNN/Time Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Dec. 30, 2003-Jan. 1, 2004. N=604 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today and you had to choose between , the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote: ?"

Bush Dean Unsure
51 46 3
Among all registered voters:

11/03
52 40 8

9/03
52 42 6

-snip-

They are switching from Registered to Likely voters. That's like comparing Liberal apples to Conservative oranges as Likelys are always several points more Republican!!

THEY ARE COVERING UP THE REAL RESULT. DEAN MUST HAVE BEEN MUCH CLOSER OR BEAT BUSH IN THE FULL SURVEY OF REGISTEREDS!

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. Good observation let me check the Ipsos Reid

reelectability

The last is December 6th, so watch out

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=1989

I suspect the numbers will no longer be stable

[Dimsdale]

13. Right, and Dean needs to get more religion into his campaign.

The Dems aren't open about religion. They don't relate to people of faith. Dean is a leader among them, thus he needs to more openly address religion in his policies. According to the following, The Dems are missing the boat, but Chimpy, a lying sack of shit who's responsible for the deaths of thousands, is a fine, upstanding leader. Fucking hell, he's a flaming hypocrite.

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/editorial/7626711.htm

Dems must learn how to bring religion into politics

An overwhelming majority of Americans consider themselves religious. Yet according to the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, those who attend church more than once a week vote Republican by 63 percent to 37 percent; people who seldom or never attend vote Democratic by 62 percent to 38 percent.


This disparity should concern Democrats - if not as a matter of faith, then as a matter of politics. More important, it should concern anyone who cares about the role of religion in public life. By failing to engage Republicans in this debate, the Democrats impoverish us all.


President Bush and the Republicans clearly have an advantage with people of faith. Republicans are comfortable talking about religion, and they are quick to promise that their faith will affect their policies (even if, like their Democratic counterparts, they don't always keep their promises). President Bush is as public about his faith as any recent occupant of the White House.


Democratic candidates, in contrast, seem uncomfortable with religion....

more..

[Demobrat]

25. Dean was just talking about that.

About how Northeasterners don't talk openly about their spiritual and religious beliefs, but that southerners do, so he was going to learn how to do that down there. I personally couldn't care less about religion, but Dean gets that some people care a lot. So he'll talk about his to people who care.

[cally]

15. Great news!!!

I think Gore was way behind at this time. Bush can be defeated!!

[POed_Ex_Repub]

16. This is a good starting point

And when you consider the "Name recognition" factor of Bush (considering the main election hasn't even started yet), this is very encouraging.

[tridim]

17. It's early, he has no running mate yet, and

our base is divided among the 9 candidates. I'm sure a few dems that were polled were casting anti-Dean votes. The way I look at it, Dean is miles ahead of Bush NOW. He'll be lightyears ahead come November.

[rock]

20. Not bad

Considering he's up against a "popular war-time president" AND he's merely a contingent opponent.

[Lostmessage]

21. It's more like Dean is 20% ahead of Bush

The polling place is republican owned and they have to keep the numbers up for Bush.

[GOPBasher]

26. I'm so psyched about this poll.

Didn't the media tell us that Bush is a lock b/c Saddam was captured? :shrug:

[bspence]

27. WTG Dean!

I'm glad the race is much closer than I thought. Dean was a total unknown only a few months ago, and now he's positioning himself to take over the presidency.

I just hope the other dems don't sabotage everything by saying 'anyone but Dean'. I know they're already doing it, but it's so bad for the party. Whoever the winner is, he shouldn't be beaten up by all of the other Dems. That would only hurt us in November.

And we all know we need 'anyone but Bush'.