U.S. nuke study on Iran erodes oil market risk

[Robbien]

Source: Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A U.S. intelligence report showing that Tehran halted its atomic weapons program four years ago reduces the chance of a U.S. military confrontation with Iran and could erode the geopolitical risk premium on crude oil prices, analysts said on Tuesday.

The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) took U.S. friends and foes by surprise after years of strident rhetoric from Washington accusing the OPEC member of pursuing a covert nuclear weapons program.

President George W. Bush said Iran remains a global danger, and that "all options" are on the table for dealing with Iran. U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman dismissed the chance of the report affecting oil markets.

Still, U.S. crude oil prices fell nearly $2 to below $88 a barrel on Tuesday after the report was released, as traders saw a slimmer chance of a disruption from the world's No. 4 oil exporter.

. . .

WORLD WAR III?

Tensions between Tehran and Washington helped fuel the record rally that sent prices up 40 percent to just shy of $100 a barrel from August to late November amid concerns of a supply shortfall ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN0452030820071204

[tridim]

1. Another reason to impeach Bush TODAY

I wonder how much profit the oil companies made because of Bush's fake Iran/WWIII rhetoric? I trust someone will give us a number, it should be fairly simple to quantify as we watch oil prices fall.

Edit: Did anyone else notice gas prices falling early last week?

[LakeSamish706]

2. And as important, how many shares in these companies does Bush have...

And how many of his friends have serious shares in the oil companies as well?

[ixion]

3. or, phrased another way: Bush's false claims on Iraq caused oil to sky rocket

just sayin'...

[DCKit]

4. Even better, who dumped shares and sold short in the past two weeks...

Before the information was made public?

Everyone at last week's conference got one hell of a heads up on this and I'm sure the information was supplied to others as well.

[happyslug]

6. New Moon was December 1, next new moon December 31.

The Air Force prefers to launch air attacks during New Moons, the least amount of Moon light possible. Thus most observers expect an attack around a New Moon. The last New Moon was Saturday, but any attack before Christmas would hurt Christmas Sales (Think about it, how much will people cut back Christmas shopping due to an attack, either to follow the attack or to support our troops someway. Bush and Company does NOT want that).

On the other hand it is a good time to give out such a report, cuts back on the prospects of a War, cut oil prices, increase sales, etc. Then attack on December 31 or even New Years Day. Buy oil futures now, that they are down, sell After January 1 at a premium.

I know it is the conspiracy nut in me that thinks this way, but given Bush's track record, he wants to attack Iran but he takes care of business first, it fits. Most people will have bought for Christmas before December 25. Most Returns occur right afterward. As to sales, New Years Eve is a afterthought to the Christmas shopping (From a business point of view, not which holiday you celebrate more). It is before the Primary season (Which Bush is NOT in) so this will be all over by Spring (Unless some sort of Ground War is implemented either by Iran or Bush).

One last comment. Here is a Scenario I thought of recently. Israel attacks Iran first right after Christmas. Iran then retaliates by launching Missiles at Israel. Bush "to protect Israel" then launches an attack on Iran from Iraq and our Carriers. Bush can say he is "Defending" Israel from the Iranians who attack Israel during Christmas. Israel can claim it only attacked Iran do to fear Iran may launch Nuclear weapons at it. Iran is left looking around and saying "What did we do, other then defend ourselves?" Conspiracy yes, but possible. I doubt probably but possible.

[Supersedeas]

5. oil consumers needed a little shock therapy

[happyslug]

7. Most people buy their oil in October of November.

Basically most people have oil by December 1st of any year. Notice that this was released around December 1st. December tends to be a dead time period for oil sales, oil holds out for a few weeks then people buy new when they tanks start to run dry. That depends on how cold it Stays between now and Christmas. If it warms up, less oil is used, the later the second Fill-up of oil is needed. The colder it is the quicker the oil must be purchased. Someone held this report and released it at the best time NOT to affect oil prices (i.e. most people do NOT need oil this week).

Please also note one of the reason oil dropped the last week or so, is that people have their oil for the next month or so. Less demand, the lower the price.