Sharp heatwaves likely to be common for European summers: scientists

[Barrett808]

Sharp heatwaves likely to be common for European summers: scientists
GENEVA (AFP) Jan 11, 2004

Summer heatwaves in Europe, similar to the one that struck the continent last year causing the premature death of many elderly people and fuelling massive forest fires, are likely to be common before the end of the century, Swiss scientists predicted Sunday.
"Our models show that, in Europe, by then about one summmer in two should be at least as hot as the one in 2003," said Christoph Schaer, a professor of climate sciences at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ).

The research found that such heatwaves were likely to be "the rule rather than the exception" in more than 70 years' time, the institute said in a statement.

The summer of 2003 was marked by several weeks with daytime temperatures well above 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) in many parts of western Europe, as well as record-breaking peaks above 40 degrees.

There were massive forest fires in several countries, destroying about three to four times more woodland in France than usual, severe droughts and water shortages, while mortality rates for the elderly and infirm often rose sharply.

(more)

http://www.spacedaily.com/2004/040111180050.iu4h08nf.html

[Dogmudgeon]

1. They're forgetting something

Heat causes Arctic ice melt.

Melted ice runs off into the North Atlantic, reducing its salinity.

Reduced salinity inhibits the Thermohaline Circulation which replaces cold Arctic water with warm Equatorial water.

The ocean gets much colder.

The temperature of Europe falls by 5, 8, 12 degrees Celsius.

At the same time, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) becomes more active since the oceanic temperature gradient increases.

More hurricanes and "Wave 2" winter storms (like the 1993 "superstorm") form.

And the balmy, 10000-year-long interstadial era ends as the more normal Ice Age conditions return.

Well ... I hope I'm wrong.

--bkl