STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 12 January (#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday January 12, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 378
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 31 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 83 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 295
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 779
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 9, 2004

Dow... 10,458.89 -133.55 (-1.26%)
Nasdaq... 2,086.92 -13.33 (-0.63%)
S&P 500... 1,121.86 -10.06 (-0.89%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.09% -0.16 (-3.84%)
Gold future... 426.80 +2.40 (+0.57%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT

There is no doubt that 2003 turned out to be a good year for the stock market. What began as a bear market rally has ended in a mania. Some are now even saying that we never were even in a bear market to begin with. My study of market history simply does not confirm this view. All indications are that the current rally is a bear market rally. I continue to believe that this rally is the all important rally that serves to separate the first phase of the bear market form the second phase. That makes this rally equivalent to the rally that was seen between November 1929 and April 1930.

<cut>

I am also seeing hard evidence of these extreme sentiment readings. I talk with money managers all over the world. These money managers represent smart money. The stories that I hear from these people are all the same. They tell me that they have been very conservative with playing this rally as there indicators and past experience with the market is telling them that this rally is also most likely a bear market rally. Yet, their clients have now become irritated and no longer are believing these professional market analyst and money managers. I hear story after story where clients are moving their money from these managers because they are “just too conservative” in their money management practices. The average investor is now the expert. He is listening to CNBC and these guys are telling us all that everything is just fine and the average investor is believing it. The current situation with the market is stretched and it continues to stretch even more. Moreover, Joe Six Pack is now the expert and has begun firing his money manager. At this point, the best way I can describe the market is that it is simply nuts! I urge you to please, exercise caution with the market.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. My DU is sooooo sloooooooow.

I will have to limit my participation while the upgrades hobble the system. It takes 3 to 4 minutes for my pages to load (I use dialup). So my communication is a bit challenged.

I will check back periodically to *ping* the server.

Be well marketeers! Have a wonderful day!

Ozy

[54anickel]

4. Morning Ozy, I had trouble logging in as well. Seems better now.

message states they were working on an upgrade. Must have hit a hitch in the process.

[Maeve]

5. When it is good, it's very, very good

But when it is slow, it's bad! And during the workday, we can expect more of those sloooow times. (a measure of DU's popularity)

BTW, lovely little bit of spin here...
Retail growth seen at 5% in '04
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Retail sales are expected to grow by 5 percent in 2004, up from 4.3 percent last year, as an increase in hiring and low inflation lift the economy, the National Retail Federation said Monday.
<snip>
Underpinning an increase in consumer spending, the report says, is low inflation and the increase in job creation. Prices are not expected to move significantly higher in the near future and interest rates are expected to remain low, despite signs of increased strength in the economy, the report said.

Also, evidence that the labor market is finally turning around led Wells to predict that "faster job creation is achievable in 2004."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Faster than 1000 jobs a month? I should bloody well hope that's achievable!!!!! :grr:

[54anickel]

41. Well here's a fine quote from your article.

I see in LBN that the Iraqis are rioting about jobs, when do we start?

The report met with some skepticism from an industry observer.

"The NRF is again very optimistic about next year," said Kurt Barnard, independent retail consultant. "The NRF isn't taking into account the jobs picture. We're exporting jobs and retailers are using all kinds of methods to increase efficiency that don't require workers. So how can we expect a break in the jobs picture."

[Maeve]

3. Even some bulls are making bearish noises

Stocks have rarely gone for so long without a selloff. Can the rally last?
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Any day now the market is going to turn south. Really.

We're not talking bear market, heaven forfend, just one of those quick jogs down that foster a little worry among investors -- a little reminder that the stock market is a two way street.

Such a correction would be a long time coming. The S&P 500 hasn't experienced a selloff that took it 5 percent or more from its closing high of the previous 90 days since late March of last year. You have to go all the way back to 1996 to find a streak that lasted so long, according to sentimenTrader.com.

"The best thing that could happen is for this market to have a reasonable correction," said Scott Larry Rice, vice president at investment firm Janney Montgomery Scott. "I would have thought we would have had one a long time ago."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Gotta get those warnings out now and again...

Morning, Marketeers! And another cheerful, happy-talking day it is, too! The employment numbers are soooo last week and we're gonna go to the moon and Mars! Plenty of money, we still have checks...

[JNelson6563]

6. o'Neil's book making waves

Deficits doen't matter to Team Bush eh? heh heh Well they should! Idiots.

The dollar taking severe beatings. Gold lookin' good. Seems to me the wall of happy thoughts has more chinks out of it than last week.

Should be one fun week to watch. Hope all have safe positions.

Happy Monday Marketeers!

Julie

[54anickel]

10. Good Morning Julie

Wonder if the gold push up toward 430 was on the heels of O'Neill's 60 minute interview? The following drop could have been the blurb from the G10/G7 I posted regarding dollar intervention. Seems we have the whole world willing to prop that puppy up now.

Lots of interesting news going on around gold. I don't know if it is good or bad for gold bugs. Probably good in the short run, maybe bad a few years down the road.

WGC had finally made it thru all the red tape last month to offer their Gold Bullion Security on the London Stock Exchange. Pent up demand had it off to a good start, but it dropped way down. They are speculating the drop had to do with the holidays.

Anyway, there are a lot of these types of Securities coming on board world-wide, including the US. They are being promoted as owning physical gold without the storage hassle. A piece of paper that gives you ownership to bullion in a vault, but unlike the Canadian Security, it is open-ended.

Don't know what all this will mean in the future. My speculation is that these will take the heat and risks off of the central banks and bullion reserves regarding leasing. It may be the final attempt to demonetize gold, making it just another commodity vs a safe haven. I think if that is their objective, they might have a difficult time convincing the East Asian and South American folks. Gold could be very interesting to watch the next couple of years. The renewal of the Washington Agreement in September will come in to play.

I have no idea what to make of this right now. :shrug:

[JNelson6563]

22. I don't know but my

instinct has been screaming "Go long on gold" for a long time now, since last summer at least.

I've always regreted when I didn't listen. haha

Julie

[54anickel]

26. Same here.

[54anickel]

25. Some links to go with that

Of course, my speculation is tainted by my mistrust of the Markets. This could all be good for gold, I just "feel" it's been compromised, somehow made dirty, by it's entrance into the stock markets.

http://www.gold.org/sp_archive/html/Survey.html
from 98 & 99 - a little marketing research?
How do we know about people’s attitudes toward their countries’ gold reserves? It’s simple – we asked them. What we are going to present today is the results and analysis of a unique series of surveys of public opinion in five of the world’s leading economies.


http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=91&story=31587
Bit of press to wet the appetite in India. Like how they use the word scheme?


http://www.dailystar.com.lb/07_01_04/art22.asp
An interesting read from the view of Lebanon

http://en.ce.cn/insights/t20031120_214633.shtml
An interesting view from China, and an explanation of their holding off on floating their currency - low gold reserves


http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2003/Dec-2003/BullionSecurities101203.htm
Debut Of Gold Bullion Securities On LSE Exceeds WGC’s Wildest Hopes.


http://www.madhunt.com/robandrusseptember242003.html
One more, when I read between the lines, it seems to take advantage of FUD, based on the premise of fear, uncertainty and doubt. Some snippets:

Another way to play the sector is to purchase gold bullion. Canada's first gold bullion trust, Central Gold-Trust, was created this year to provide investors with a convenient and cost-effective way to buy unencumbered physical gold bullion, in 400-ounce international bars physically stored in Canadian chartered bank treasury vaults.

The shift towards commodities and, in particular, gold, may be for short-term reasons, as investors have been quick to recognize and take positions in a sector that's on fire. And while its short-term volatility and trends are primarily determined by the U.S. dollar and economic and political dislocations, there is growing evidence that a long-term, upward trend is underway - one that may be greatly affected by improving levels of world prosperity, especially outside Europe and North America.

In times of economic or political uncertainty, high inflation or global calamity, traditional investments like stocks, bonds and mutual funds don't fair too well. These paper assets have no intrinsic value. Gold, on the other hand, tends to be a safe haven and it's the only true money source recognized through the centuries and around the world. It is easily converted to cash, simple to store and often purchased by investors looking to diversify risk.

But they ARE a paper asset as well

Throughout all periods in history - times of war and peace, feast and famine - gold has been a consistent store of value and a trusted medium of exchange. In recent years, gold and other commodities have been good tools for investment managers to hedge portfolios, as the price of gold tends to move in a direction opposite to traditional investments.

[54anickel]

7. Lots of chatter about the dollar. Seems to be the talk of the town.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=YGH15G1TAU3HICRBAE0CFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=4109553&pageNumber=1

G10 Bankers Say Currency Tensions a Risk
Mon January 12, 2004 06:34 AM ET

(Page 1 of 2)
By Stella Dawson
BASEL, Switzerland (Reuters) - Japan joined Europe on Monday in expressing concern about instability on currency markets in a sign that central bankers of top industrial nations may be nearing agreement to try to slow the dollar's slide.

Central bankers from the world's richest nations are meeting in the Swiss city of Basel to discuss the impact of the U.S. dollar's tumble on the global economy, plus topics such as a scandal surrounding Italian food group Parmalat and sweeping bank regulatory changes known as Basel II.

Some Europeans have said the euro's gains of more than 20 percent against the dollar since the start of last year could stifle recovery in the euro zone. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Monday that he agreed with policymakers across the globe that currency tensions are a risk.

"The foreign exchange issue is an unstable factor for each country," he said before a meeting of central bankers from the Group of 10 nations at the Bank of International Settlements.

"Foreign exchange is seen as a risk factor by policymakers in relation to global imbalance issues," he told reporters, adding that the BOJ held the same view. A source from the Group of Seven industrial nations told Reuters that G7 finance ministers were also likely to discuss global tensions arising from developments in foreign exchange markets at their next meeting in February.

more.....

[54anickel]

16. Another thought on the US dollar.

I did my usual weekend news google for central bank gold reserves (get hits for gold and foreign currency reserves with that one).

Seems everyone's foreign currency reserve that came up is awash with US dollars - understandable since we've been creating them out of thin air for 3 years. What was more interesting was that they are all intervening in the currency markets.

Here's one I bookmarked for Russia, fairly indicative of the other hits and their fingers silently in the currency exchange.

http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=41436

MOSCOW - Russia’s gold and foreign currency reserves amounted to $65.4bn as of November 14, 2003, against $64.7bn a week earlier, the Central Bank reported Thursday. This is an all time record. The previous record of $64.9bn was set on June 20, 2003, and it was repeated on July 4 and October 31.

snip>
However, this year, unlike last year, Central Bank officials have not said a word about the Central Bank’s massive interventions on the foreign exchange market. The market situation is such that domestic demand for dollars is currently low and unlikely to rise any time soon, while the supply of dollars is high due to high oil prices. Under the circumstances, the Central Bank is doing its best to protect the dollar.

Indeed, the Central Bank has not allowed the dollar to fall below 29.7950 RUR/USD over the past two weeks. Sergey Ignatyev, Chairman of the Central Bank, has said recently that the Bank would try to prevent the ruble’s effective exchange rate from rising by more than 6 percent. From Monday to Thursday, the Central Bank had to buy foreign currency from banks. According to different estimates, the Central Bank has purchased about $300m to $400m this week on the open market alone. Perhaps, the bank also purchased dollars directly from exporters.

[54anickel]

8. Dollar Watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 85.15 Change +0.04 (+0.05%)

Settle 85.11 Settle Time 23:35

Open 85.10 Previous Close 85.11

High 85.24 Low 84.80


A lot of forces attempting to push it up out of the 84 range.

[JNelson6563]

9. I think they will succeed ini pushing it down

and don't import prices comeout this week? Should be somewhat painful. Poor Wal-Mart! ;-)

Julie

[Frodo]

11. Import/export prices were SUPPOSED to be out 30 min ago.

I still haven't seen them.

I also never saw the consumer credit numbers that were supposed to come out on Thursday or the total auto sales figures last Monday (just some internals).

None of these are what you might call "first tier" (or even second tier) numbers, but I wonder where they are???

[Maeve]

13. One of the consumer credit stories from last week

I found this one rather worrisome...
Credit crunch coming?
Card delinquencies have hit a record; the housing slowdown could mean more pain is coming.
January 7, 2004: 1:09 PM EST
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The record percentage of consumers behind on their credit-card payments could be the ugly result of a weakening housing market -- and an ominous sign of greater credit pain to come, economists said Wednesday.

But some analysts suggested that the improving labor market would ease the sting of a softer housing market and help stop the bleeding in consumer balance sheets.
The American Bankers Association (ABA) reported Tuesday that 4.09 percent of all credit-card accounts were delinquent in the third quarter, the highest rate on record, and said the weak job market was probably to blame.
~~~~~~~~~~~`
Most worrying is that they were figuring the improved labor market would fix this...and we all know how "improved" the labor figures were...

And I don't like it when reports are late, either. Mkaes me wonder what's wrong.

[mbperrin]

15. Auto sales lowest since 1998

Here:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20040106-9999_1b6autos.html

[54anickel]

19. HA! "Despite record incentives" They need to be looking at the sales

of Mercedes and Infinity! At least according to last weeks pundit!

[Maeve]

20. Import/Exports out tomorrow

http://financial.washingtonpost.com/wpost/briefing.asp?mode=MARKCAL&dispnav=business

[Frodo]

24. Ahhh! Is today the 12th then???

oops.

[54anickel]

12. The WTO will be after us on the Byrd Amendment too.

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/story/0,4567,104765,00.html

Japan to hike tariffs on US goods
Move follows US failure to scrap law WTO found illegal

JAPAN plans to raise tariffs on US imports after the US missed a World Trade Organization deadline to repeal a law that allows millions of dollars in tariff revenue to go to companies, a trade ministry official said yesterday.

Japan on Monday will notify the WTO of its intention to raise tariffs, said an official at the Ministry of Trade, Economy and Industry in Tokyo. The WTO will review the plan, deciding how much in tariffs can be imposed and on what products, which could take several months, he said.

The threat comes as trade tensions were defused last month when Japan and the European Union dropped plans to impose US$2.3 billion in sanctions on US products after President George Bush abolished tariffs on steel imports.

His efforts to scrap the law may be delayed by some in Congress who support its aim of helping companies and farmers that complain of unfair trade.

snip>
The EU has been the most vocal about threatening to retaliate, but other countries that challenged the Byrd amendment also could take that step.

They are Japan, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Chile, India, Indonesia, Korea, Thailand and Mexico.

The EU and others face a Monday deadline to put their retaliation request on the agenda for the WTO Dispute Settlement Body's next meeting on Jan 23.

[54anickel]

14. I had filed this under "Things to Ponder". Thought I would share it

with you Marketeers. It involves a new measurement to GDP, called
GPI (Genuine Progress Index). You may be aware of it already. I'm sure it will never come to pass, but it's nice to dream.

It's an eye opener for those work-a-holics chasing the almighty buck and constantly watching/playing the market.

http://www.gpiatlantic.org/

[JNelson6563]

17. you mean "accurate" instead of

"whatever we want to say it is"? haha That would be nice. Now they need to "fix" the UE#s too.

Julie

[KoKo]

30. This is interesting. If you don't mind I might post it over in the

"Meeting Room Forum," where those of us who are spirtually inclined might be heartened by this new measurement of "Genuine Progress" as opposed to "Money Growth and Productivity." Some of us are hoping some good will eventually come out of the Decades of Greed which are culminating in all this corruption we are dealing with now from the White House to the World Economy which affects us all.

[54anickel]

33. Feel free. The more interest in it the better.

[Maeve]

18. And here we go again--9:35

Dow 10,475.41 +16.52 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,096.36 +9.44 (+0.45%)
S&P 500 1,123.92 +2.06 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.109% +0.023

[Maeve]

21. 9:50 and bouncing...down

Dow 10,465.04 +6.15 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,094.42 +7.50 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,122.77 +0.91 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.109% +0.023

running to do, see y'all later!

[JNelson6563]

23. and downward still

just 4 mins later and we're here:

Dow 10,453.63 -5.26 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,088.85 +1.93 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,121.90 +0.04 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.109% +0.023


Storm clouds moving in? Well I go to the dentist at 11:00 so I'm doing my part for the economy. The reprieve from the ongoing horrors ends today. The real kicker is I pay these people some serious cash to torture me so. Is this the masochist in me screaming to get out? haha

I'll occupy my mind speculating at what's happening in the markets....and of course, how to successfully complete overthrowing this Team Bush Regime from our government. Should get a quick up-date in before I head out.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

27. 10:43 update

Dow 10,464.96 +6.07 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,092.10 +5.18 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,123.24 +1.38 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.057% -0.029

Things evening out a bit. Quite a turn-around in 10yrs. for a short period.

Off to dentist, will check back later.

Julie

[54anickel]

28. Seems G10 shows concern, but pretty much tabled discussion

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/12/rtr1207084.html

WRAPUP 2-Trichet says Europe concerned at "brutal" FX moves
Reuters, 01.12.04, 11:03 AM ET

(Updates with new markets data, recasts)
BASEL, Jan 12 (Reuters) - European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet said on Monday Europe was concerned about "brutal" currency movements but a meeting of the world's top central bankers did not discuss the dollar's rapid slide as a risk to global economic recovery.

The absence of a common front on currencies from the Group of 10 meeting suggests that the United States is unwilling yet to halt the dollar, which has fallen 18 percent against the euro over the past year, analysts said.

snip>
But Trichet, chairman of the meeting, said foreign exchange risks were not part of the G10 discussion at the bi-monthly health check on world growth, which the central bankers see as improving steadily.

"It was not discussed as a risk," Trichet said after the talks in the Swiss city of Basel.

Analysts say this raises questions about whether the Group of Seven finance ministers can craft a new currency accord at their next meeting in early February in Boca Raton, Florida.

snip>
"Europe would prefer that the U.S. express some interest in stabilising the dollar," said Stephen Englander, chief currency strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. "But from the U.S. point of view, they simply don't see it in their interest to do that. There is no downside for the U.S.."

For the Bush administration heading into a presidential election, the dollar's decline is a blessing. It quietens complaints from U.S. manufacturers that they cannot compete with a flood of cheap imports from Asia and it helps to boost exports, lifting overall economic growth.

Europeans, meanwhile, are bearing the brunt of the dollar's decline, particularly since many Asian countries are buying up dollars to weaken their own currencies and protect exports.

[54anickel]

29. China is making some real headway into moderizing their banking

industry by 2006 as mandated by the WTO.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200401/09/eng20040109_132243.shtml

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), one of the country's four biggest banks, announced on Friday an increase of 17.8 billion yuan (2.17 billion US dollars) in profits to 62.1 billion yuan (7.57 billion US dollars), up 40 percent year-on-year.

The bank, one of the four state-owned banks, has maintained rapid growth in profits for four consecutive years with rates ranging from 27.7 percent to 24 percent, while its total operating profits stood at 150 billion yuan (18.2 billion US dollars), said a statement from the bank.

In the past year, the bank's assets profit margin and capital profit margin reached record highs of 1.24 percent and 38.8 percent, respectively.

A leading official with the bank said the continued improvement in the quality of the bank's loans was behind the extraordinary growth in profits.

The ratio of non-performing loan to its increased loans has been below 1.5 percent each year since 1999.

The bank has cut its outstanding non-performing assets by 159.4billion yuan (19.4 billion US dollars) since 2001, of which the outstanding non-performing loans was reduced by 106.5 billion yuan (12.9 billion US dollars), down an average of four percentage points each year.

The bank reported a 21.3 percent ratio of non-performing loans to total loans by the end of 2003 with its total outstanding non-performing assets down to 69.8 billion yuan (8.5 billion US dollars).

The Bank of China, the second biggest bank in China, also reported fast progress in its efforts to control non-performing assets and restructuring.

The bank said it had cut ties with 1,155 economic entities it set up years ago, and had disposed of 72.4 billion yuan (8.8 billion US dollars) worth of non-performing assets by the end of 2003.



A little info on the WTO 2006 deadline:

http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=E0B384DE-E8C1-41C7-A35D4444E12EF4E9

snip>
China's government-owned commercial banks are largely insolvent due to bad loans they have made over the years, often on government orders, to now-bankrupt state-owned enterprises. With bad debts accounting for about a fifth of their outstanding loans, the banks are said to be in no position to compete on international markets.

This worries Chinese leaders as the country prepares to open its markets to foreign banks in 2006, as mandated by the conditions of its membership in the World Trade Organization.

The infusion of capital was aimed at easing the banks' non-performing loans, but observers say improving corporate governance is more important in the long term.

Chris Murck, head of the China office of the international consulting firm APCO, said the infusion is also essential to maintaining public confidence.

"You might get to December 2006 and a whole bunch of major foreign institutions could open branches and the confidence of Chinese citizens in the soundness of their banks began to waiver," said Mr. Murck. "You have a massive transfer of funds from Chinese banks to foreign banks."

Chinese officials say they intend to make a similar infusion into another of major bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, but the amount and time and have not been set.

[mrsteve]

31. 12:40 - stocks moving sideways then down after a busy morning

"Choppy" as Yahoo Fi says the morning was, they were stable but have begun nosing over in the last 15 minutes - what was the news? Did I miss something?

Dow 10,457.04 -1.85 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,098.20 +11.28 (+0.54%)
S&P 500 1,123.28 +1.42 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.047% -0.039

(on edit - typo)

[Maeve]

32. Blather from Briefing.com says so much...

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
<snip>
Despite this change, we believe stocks remain the best available investment vehicles and think long-term investors should maintain exposure at current levels... Keep in mind that a sluggish employment sector alleviates the threat of a Fed tightening, which is good for stocks, as explained in The Big Picture brief... Prior to Friday, Briefing.com did not expect rates to be hiked until mid-2004... Post the Employment report, though, there was increased talk among analysts that the Fed will not raise short-term rates through the entirety of 2004...

Bull-y for them :eyes:

[mrsteve]

34. Yeah, there's a lot of boilerplate there

They've been using phrases like "we believe stocks remain the best available investment vehicles and think long-term investors should maintain exposure at current levels" for the last 3 months. Guess they see only blue skies on the horizon, despite the trade deficit, dollar valuation, and the federal budget deficit, to name a few currently deep problems.

But then, you wouldn't expect a bunch of stock analysts to tell you to buy gold now, would you?

[54anickel]

38. Ah, but they are....

Herding folks into the funds and away from physical gold.
Interesting, isn't it.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A5381-2004Jan10.html

[JNelson6563]

35. a bunch of bull(s) haha

12:56 and a bit mixed:


Dow 10,456.29 -2.60 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,096.91 +9.99 (+0.48%)
S&P 500 1,123.10 +1.24 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.045% -0.041

Some $$ into Treasuries though, not a lot.

But yes, the bullish brokers are sounding their siren song to the lemmings, "Buy! Buy!! Buy!!!" For the lemmings resistance is futile. ;-)


Julie

[mrsteve]

39. I miss that lemmings Gif that someone had...

Was that Radfringe that had the big lemmings graphic and their run back and forth from "Sell" to "Buy"?

I miss it. Funny stuff.

[Maeve]

43. Yeah, that was rad's

I'll PM her and see if we can get it available for use! She also had some cute "Diggit the Mole" toons with the critter getting the dirt on the misAdministration....

[Maeve]

50. As requested--go, lemmings, go!

[mrsteve]

51. Bwa-ha-ha-aha!

Love it - thanks Maeve, and thank Rad for me.

[54anickel]

36. Dollar update - maintaining its gains & Japan on holiday

Need to run some errands. Will check back later.

Last trade 85.32 Change +0.21 (+0.25%)

High 85.49 Low 84.80

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20040112-000817-0922

snip>
In a market well overdue for a correction from the sharp moves of late, Mr. Trichet's remarks were certainly having an impact early Monday, with the euro coming sharply back off its latest high.

Indeed, his comments helped the dollar rebound from new multiyear lows plumbed Monday against many other major currencies.

"It's one of the first real shots over the bow," said Jason Bonanca, director and foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York. "He's choosing to sound a different note from his press conference last week."

snip>
With no U.S. economic data on tap or Federal Reserve officials due to speak Monday, currency dealers will likely take direction from Mr. Trichet's comments.

In other news Monday, a key German government adviser on economic issues said the G7 nations will likely issue a statement at their upcoming meeting in February that will take some pressure off the euro.

"I expect state and government heads on both sides of the Atlantic to agree on a joint foreign-exchange policy at the next G7 meeting," said Axel Weber, a member of the German government's council of economic advisers known as the Five Wise Men. "There will be an attempt to keep the euro from bearing the burden of the dollar's moves on its own in the future."

This would appear to put the onus back onto Asian currencies. But central banks in the region show little sign of stepping back from currency markets and letting their currencies appreciate, which makes their countries' exports more expensive on world markets.

Thailand's central bank has intervened in recent days to stabilize the baht's exchange rate, Assistant Governor for Financial Markets Operations Tasna Rajatabhothi said Monday.

And Japanese monetary authorities are thought to have intervened to the tune of $40 billion or more last week to stop the yen from strengthening too much.

Japanese markets were closed Monday for a public holiday.

[mrsteve]

37. 1:35 - little change since the last update

Dow 10,458.22 -0.67 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,097.17 +10.25 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,123.27 +1.41 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.051% -0.035

Finally, a bit of real analysis (instead of cheerleading) from Yahoo Fi:
"1:30PM: Little change since the last update as the Dow and the S&P 500 are sticking near the flat line, while the Nasdaq is boasting modest gains... The Nasdaq has been leading the market's advance since the beginning of January, just like it has in the market's advance off its March lows... Specifically, the tech composite is up 4.6% on a year-to-date basis, while the Dow and the S&P 500 are up 0.4% and 1.0%, respectively...
Such activity is in stark contrast to trades observed in December, which saw a rotation out of momentum plays in favor of value stocks, which resulted in the blue-chip averages' relative outperformance of the Nasdaq for the month.. The small- and mid-cap averages are particularly strong today and are outperforming their large-cap counterparts on a relative basis..."


(on edit - fixed html tag)

[mrsteve]

40. 2:35 - fairly boring - not a lot of movement

Stocks are all up into the black at least by a hair, with the Nasdaq still near it's high for the day.

Dow 10,466.52 +7.63 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,100.91 +13.99 (+0.67%)
S&P 500 1,124.83 +2.97 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.069% -0.017

[nolabels]

44. I like that bond figure, bodes well for my refi on the homestead

Locking in at 5% on a 15 yr today. Rates this low I was dreaming of for years.
I can pay the joint off in less years at lower payment, what could be nicer.

[0007]

42. The cartoon sez it all, 'eh?

[54anickel]

45. Would be even more truthful if the blank chart was a pic of buffalo chips

[mrsteve]

46. 40 minutes left - near the highs for the day

Guess the naysayers have been pushed aside - small but solid gains on stocks, 10 year slowly rising as money leaks out (probably to stocks).

Dow 10,473.47 +14.58 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,105.59 +18.67 (+0.89%)
S&P 500 1,125.98 +4.12 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.083% -0.003

[Maeve]

47. The bulls may not be bellowing....

But they are making themselves heard today!

Dow 10,481.48 +22.59 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,108.79 +21.87 (+1.05%)
S&P 500 1,126.68 +4.82 (+0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.083% -0.003

[CaptainClark23]

48. Making themselves herd?

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[Maeve]

49. Moo--ve along, now!

Dow 10,485.18 +26.29 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,111.78 +24.86 (+1.19%)
S&P 500 1,127.23 +5.37 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4.083% -0.003

[54anickel]

52. Last update on the buck - Perhaps BoJ should take more holidays

Hard to believe no one is minding the store ;-)

Last trade 85.57 Change +0.46 (+0.54%)

High 85.64 Low 84.80


The Yen staying in that 106 range:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=s

Last trade 106.59 Change +0.17 (+0.16%)

Open 106.42 Previous Close 106.42

High 106.73 Low 106.31

Bid 106.59 Ask 106.64