STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 26

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 26, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 391 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2535 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2257 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2218
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 24, 2007

Dow... 13,549.33 +98.68 (+0.73%)
Nasdaq... 2,713.50 +21.51 (+0.80%)
S&P 500... 1,496.45 +11.99 (+0.81%)
Gold future... 816.50 +1.10 (+0.13%)
30-Year Bond 4.62% +0.04 (+0.94%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.21% +0.04 (+1.06%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: A CRUDE CONUNDRUM

BY ROB KIRBY

Over the past few weeks much has been written about the Bernanke led Federal Reserve and whether or not the Fed has been “ahead” of the game where monetary stimulus is concerned in an economy that is showing increasing signs of systemic stress.

I have even read articles claiming that money growth has in fact been stagnant for much of this year – from market analysts such as John Hussman - arguing that the Fed is perhaps “behind the curve” and generally only injects money into the system on a “temporary” (repo) basis:

“So it's difficult to understand why investors would get all excited about the Fed temporarily buying up a few billion in government securities, when we've got a Federal government that's simultaneously and permanently issuing and then constantly rolling over many, many times that amount. It‘s an escape into dreamland to believe that Fed actions have any chance at all of providing more “liquidity” when the Federal government's deficits suck up in a matter of weeks every bit of liquidity that the Fed has provided in a year. These Fed actions are nothing but marginal tinkering around the edges of the global financial system, and investors are starting to catch on.“

For a minute now, let’s just put “what the Fed does” aside.

Instead of viewing money creation from a “temporary-Fed-can-do” perspective, I’d like everyone to consider money creation from an oil centric perspective:

-chart-

If we discount recent developments in Iran whereby Iran now settles their trade in crude oil in currency other than dollars; we can empirically see that a rising crude oil price is in fact synonymous with U.S. Dollar support and fiat money creation. Remember folks, 4.25 billion in “newly discovered fiat per day” amounts to an annual run rate of 1.551 Trillion in incremental “new” money growth versus two years ago.

Amazing how this “new money” being created amounts to (more or less) roughly the same stipend required to fund a war in the Middle East and America’s burgeoning trade deficit.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermint reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises as US crude stocks tipped down

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Wednesday on new supply concerns amid expectations that data from the U.S. will show a new decline in its oil inventories.

Crude oil supplies in the United States are expected to fall 1.2 million barrels, the sixth straight weekly decline, in a report from the U.S. Energy Department, according to the mean of forecasts by analysts in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The drop is expected because of a decline in imports that market watchers blame in part on fog that kept tankers outside the Houston Ship Channel last week.

The report by the department's Energy Information Administration will be released on Thursday this week, a day late due to the Christmas holiday.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery added 53 cents to $94.66 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, midafternoon in Singapore. The contract rose 82 cents to settle at $94.13 a barrel Monday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

They (the oil futures traders) are setting us up for $100/bbl oil.

[Ghost Dog]

28. Oil prices rise on Turkish air raids, supply concerns

NEW YORK (AFP) - Oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday as speculators' nerves were rattled by Turkish air raids against Kurdish rebel hideouts in northern Iraq and lingering supply concerns.

Oil prices spiked after Turkish president Abdullah Gul praised the United States for providing military intelligence as Ankara confirmed its third air strike in 10 days against apparent Kurdish rebel bases.

New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for February delivery, closed up 1.84 dollars at 95.97 dollars a barrel following the US markets break for the Christmas Day holiday on Tuesday.

In London, Brent North Sea crude for February delivery settled up 1.24 dollars at 93.94 dollars a barrel halfway through a holiday-shortened trading week.

US-based traders said confirmation of fresh Turkish air strikes had once again raised geopolitical angst, particularly as Iraq has some of the world's largest oil reserves.

In earlier New York trading, prices had surged as high as 96.54 dollars. Prices struck a record high of 99.29 dollars on November 21.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071226/bs_afp/commoditiesenergyoilprice_071226205409;_ylt=AjY6KBYtEKJdN4TDln3UO1imOrgF

[ozymandius]

4. US braces for baby boom retirement wave

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The first of the vast US baby boom generation goes into retirement in January, setting off a demographic tidal wave with wide-ranging economic, political and social implications.

Kathleen Casey-Kirschling, born on January 1, 1946, is acknowledged as the nation's first baby boomer and the first to apply for social security benefits, for which she will be eligible in 2008.

The New Jersey grandmother is the first of an estimated 80 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964, a generation that led a social revolution in the 1960s and changed the fabric of most facets of society.

The cost for government-funded social security and medical care for the boomers leaves a funding gap of between 40 and 76 trillion dollars for next 75 years, according to various estimates.
....
Leonard Steinhorn, an American University professor and author of "The Greater Generation: In Defense of the Baby Boom Legacy," says the generation often wrongly maligned as latte-sipping Yuppies has transformed most of American society.
....
He said boomers will push politics to a more progressive bent even though that has not yet happened because the more conservative over-60 generation still carries much weight in the electorate.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071225/bs_afp/lifestyleusdemographicselderly

[Ghost Dog]

26. (UK) Pension buy-outs set to grow

Big companies will be looking to solve the problems with their final salary pension schemes "for good", the consultants Deloittes said on Wednesday, as it published figures estimating that FTSE 100 companies have a £15bn surplus in their pension schemes at the end of the year.

The surplus compares to a £40bn deficit at the start of the year and equals a £55bn improvement over the last twelve months.

And unless the stock market plunges, 2008 is likely to be the year of the pension buy out, David Robbins, a pension partner at Deloitte said.

"Companies are becoming worried about pension fund surpluses because, in general, once they have built them up, they cannot get the money back," he said - even though the government has promised to consider giving employers some easier access to surpluses as they occur.

On top of that, new players have entered the market interested in buying out pension schemes, or parts of them - in effect taking them off employers' hands.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071226/bs_ft/fto122620071154459778;_ylt=AmNLGHWIF2N7O.1pvvb_7qb2ULEF

[ozymandius]

5. Berkshire to pay $4.5B for Marmon stake

CHICAGO - Warren Buffett's investment company announced Tuesday it will pay $4.5 billion for 60 percent of Marmon Holdings Inc., a private company of more than 125 manufacturing and service businesses.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc., based in Omaha, Neb., said it plans to acquire the remaining 40 percent of Marmon over the next five to six years depending on future earnings of Marmon, according to a statement released Tuesday by both companies.

Marmon is owned by trusts for the benefits of the Pritzker family of Chicago, the family that developed the Hyatt Hotel chain.

The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2008. Before the closing, Marmon said it will make a "substantial distribution of cash and certain assets to the selling shareholders," according to the statement.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071226/ap_on_bi_ge/berkshire_marmon

[ozymandius]

6. Retailers usher in post-Xmas business

NEW YORK - With the pre-Christmas season turning out to be unimpressive despite a last-minute sales surge, retailers are rolling out after-Christmas discounts, hoping bargain shoppers and gift-card splurgers can help salvage the season.

Target Corp., the nation's No. 2 retailer, warned late Monday that its sales at established stores might decline for December, while a broad gauge of consumer spending released by Mastercard Inc., which includes estimates for spending by check and cash, showed a modest 2.4 percent increase for the holiday season.

So stores are once again trying to position themselves to extend the holiday season.
....
According to the National Retail Federation, consumers are expected to spend a total of $26.3 billion in gift cards this holiday season, up 42 percent from $18.5 billion in 2005.

ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said that the week after Christmas accounts for about 16 percent of total holiday sales.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071226/ap_on_bi_ge/post_christmas_shopping

[TalkingDog]

21. Clash of the Titans: St. Valentines vs St. Nick

Your holiday shopping experience now last 365 days a year.

I was out looking for some small picture frames over the weekend and noticed a few valentines items up on the shelves.

I just want to see a graphic for my subject line. That would be awesome!

Seriously....

If holiday spending was up roughly 3.5% and inflation was up ???% (I really can't ever find 2 numbers that match up, there are always wiggle words) isn't that a flatline?



My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[ozymandius]

7. Stock futures edge down on holiday sales

NEW YORK - U.S. stock futures slipped Wednesday as investors returned from the holiday to news of weaker than expected retail sales.

Target Corp. indicated Tuesday its sales may have fallen in December. The nation's No. 2 retailer scaled back sales projections, saying same-store sales for the five weeks through Jan. 5 would range from a 1 percent increase to a 1 percent decrease versus earlier expectations for a gain of between 3 percent and 5 percent.

MasterCard Inc. said holiday spending — including credit, cash and checks — climbed a modest 2.4 percent, weighed by a slowdown in sales of women's apparel.

The news could raise concerns about the strength of consumer spending and in turn the economy. However, it was widely expected that holiday sales would be weak.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071226/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

[ozymandius]

8. Merrill shores up capital by as much as $7.5 bln

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (MER.N) shored up its capital base by as much as $7.5 billion after selling a stake to Singapore's government and an asset manager, and unloading much of a lending business, as it wrestles with huge subprime mortgage losses.

Merrill said on Monday it would sell up to $6.2 billion in shares to Singapore's Temasek (TEM.UL) and asset manager Davis Selected Advisers. Both investors bought their stakes at $48 a share, or more than 13 percent below where the stock closed on Friday. News of the discount pushed Merrill shares 3 percent lower on Monday.

The announcement of these deals is likely a prelude to another large write-down for Merrill Lynch in the fourth quarter. Some analysts estimate the hit will be bigger than the $8.4 billion write-down Merrill recorded in the third quarter.

Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst David Trone estimated the deal's dilution to existing shareholders would be about 13 percent from the total potential investment. Trone and other analysts estimate Merrill's potential losses on mortgage-related securities could exceed $16 billion in 2007.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071224/bs_nm/merrilllynch_temasek_dc

[ozymandius]

9. UPDATE 1-RESEARCH ALERT-Citi cuts Merrill Lynch price target

Dec 26 (Reuters) - Citigroup cut its price target on Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to $80 from $85, citing equity dilution as a result of the company's decision to raise more than $6 billion of equity from two investors and sell its financing business.

The brokerage, however, said it expects these sales to be accretive to return on equity.

The brokerage maintained its "buy" rating on the stock, saying the company is well positioned to continue to be able to drive growth from the benefits of significant investments over the past couple of years.

The sale of its finance business will free up an additional $1.3 billion, Citigroup analyst Prashant Bhatia wrote in a note to clients dated Dec. 24, adding it is just the beginning of management's actions to sell noncore operations.

http://www.reuters.com/article/etfNews/idUSBNG26345220071226

---

Merrill Lynch is getting carved up like Thanksgiving bird.

[UpInArms]

10. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.380 Change -0.137 (-0.18%)

How 2007 Changed the Foreign Exchange Market

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/How_2007_Changed_the_Foreign_1198522005753.html

For the financial markets and the foreign exchange market in particular, 2007 was a year that gave everyone a much needed reality check. Over the past 6 years, the financial markets have become irrationally exuberant. Record low volatilities in the foreign exchange market sparked a vigorous appetite for risk, one that caused money market and state funds, which are suppose to be extremely conservative to be exposed to subprime risk. The hunt for yield and the belief that the good times would continue tempted many managers to look to increase their returns by investing in mortgage backed securities. The availability of cheap and easy money also led many mangers to leverage their bets which escalated their risk. Unfortunately the problems in the subprime sector blew up in 2007 and everyone learned the consequences of taking excess risk, the hard way. The lesson that money managers and investors learned in 2007 is to be more selective with their investments, be less exposed to risky assets and more conservative with leverage. For the foreign exchange market, this will have a direct impact on carry trades. The primary reason why carry trades have thrived over the past few years is because volatility fell to a record low. They have now doubled from their June 2007 levels which means that carry trades will no longer be easy one way bets. The multi-decade highs that we have grown accustomed to will be much more difficult to achieve as everyone becomes more careful with their investments and strive not to repeat the mistakes made in 2007. Also, with the US dollar falling to a record low against the Euro, currencies have become water cooler talk. The general public has become much more aware of how currencies can affect their daily way of life and this is a lesson that will remain with them for the foreseeable future. Countries around the world and the financial markets have become much more intertwined, or in other words globalization has also been taken to another level this past year. Sovereign wealth funds have become a force to be reckoned with. Between the U.A.E, Singapore, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and China, there are as much as $2 trillion to spend. Their shopping spree has led to some of the biggest deals this year with the latest being Singapore’s $4.4 billion investment into Merrill Lynch. Saudi Arabia also just announced that they are setting up their fund which is a big reason why we expect this trend to continue. As many of these government funds invest in US financial firms, it will help the US dollar and bring the world much closer together. The FX market is closed on Tuesday and Wednesday. Although there are some housing and manufacturing numbers on Wednesday, there are no major US reports until Thursday.

...more...

Carry Trades Hold Strong, But Stale Price Action Could See A Shake Up Tomorrow

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Carry_Trades_Hold_Strong__But_1198492640205.html

As we were expecting, thin trading in the FX markets has left the majors within tight ranges, though Cable has started to test support at 1.9800 more aggressively while Euro has crept higher towards 1.4400. Nevertheless, the moves are minor and we are unlikely to see the volatility we saw around Thanksgiving with Japanese markets closed today for the Emperor’s Birthday, Europe and North America closed on Tuesday for Christmas, and a many countries closed down on Wednesday for Boxing Day.

Overnight, the open Asian stock markets including China’s Shanghai Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index both gained following Friday’s gains on Wall Street, which helped support carry trades like GBPJPY and USDJPY. However, like the rest of the majors, price action in the pairs was insignificant. The Japanese yen could see a bit of volatility, though, when Tokyo re-enters the market tomorrow amidst signs that business sentiment in Japan faltered in Q4 as a stronger yen hurts exporters and a global credit crunch increases borrowing costs and damages prospects for growth worldwide. In fact, the BOJ’s Tankan index of manufacturer sentiment fell more than expected in Q4 to 19 from 23, and over the past two years, large shifts in the Tankan reading tend to coincide with movements in the BSI. The performance of businesses in Japan is of great concern to the BOJ, as the bank’s governor, Toshihiko Fukui, said last week that he was concerned falling profits would hamper wage growth and put a dent consumer spending. Nevertheless, neither of these factors have shown sharp improvements in recent months, so if anything, the greater concern for Fukui may be that he will be prevented from pursuing further rate normalization before he leaves his post at the central bank early next year.

Indeed, the most recent policy meeting resulted in a unanimous vote to leave rates steady, as even the sole hawk on the monetary policy board, Atsushi Mizuno, backed off in light of the tumultuous credit market conditions and its threat to the economies of the US, UK, and Europe. Furthermore, with the BOJ having downgraded its assessments of the economy for the first time in three years last week and with inflation showing few signs of building, the markets are actually starting to consider the potential for a rate cut before Fukui’s departure. As a result, a disappointing BSI release may only lead this speculation to be exacerbated amongst traders and push USDJPY towards 115.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. MAXJet files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2618590320071226

NEW YORK (Reuters) - MAXJet Airways Inc (MAXJ.L: Quote, Profile, Research), an all-business class airline, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from creditors after canceling all flights earlier this week, according to court documents.

The company said on Monday it had ceased operations and expected to liquidate all or part of its business due to pressures from high fuel costs and competition.

It filed for bankruptcy protection late Monday in U.S. bankruptcy court in Wilmington, Delaware, according to the court documents.

MAXJet, which operated flights from London to New York, Los Angeles and Las Vegas, was on track to record a fourth-quarter loss of more than $20 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, the company's chief financial officer John Severson said in the court documents.

The company listed state-owned Israel Aerospace Industries as its largest creditor, saying it owes the group about $2.4 million.

...more...

okay - is this the first victim of nearly $100 a barrel oil?

[UpInArms]

12. Hedge Fund manager Klein among 3 killed in air crash in Panama

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/air-crash-kills-3-including/story.aspx?guid=%7BA4DBDAE6%2D4065%2D4DE8%2DBBAD%2D42E4FA2DD95E%7D

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) - Three people, including the investment manager Michael Klein, his 13-year-old daughter, Talia, and a Panamanian pilot, were killed in a Sunday plane crash, media reports said.

The one survivor, a 12-year-old friend of Klein's daughter, was taken to a Panama hospital. The bodies and wreckage were located on Christmas Day in a densely forested mountain area, the reports said.

Klein, 37, and the girls were vacationing at the executive's private island, the reports said. The cause of the crash was as yet unclear, the reports said.

Klein was chief executive of the Santa Barbara, Calif., investment firm Pacificor LLC. He also had been president and CEO of eGroups Inc., an e-mail communication service that Yahoo (YHOO:) acquired in August 2000 for $450 million and turned into Yahoo Groups.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Cigna stands by liver-transplant-coverage decision

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/cigna-corp-liver-transplant-coverage-controversy/story.aspx?guid=%7B8C101DE8%2D8A81%2D4AD4%2D985C%2D4D44831132AF%7D

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) - Cigna decided not to pay for a liver transplant, then reversed itself, but the 17-year-old patient died before she could undergo the procedure, the attorney for the patient's family said.

Media reports say the Los Angeles attorney Mark Geragos, representing the family of Nataline Sarkisyan, said he would sue the Philadelphia insurer (CI: 54.50, 0.00, 0.0%) and would ask the district attorney to press criminal charges as well.
In a statement on Monday, two Cigna HealthCare executives expressed condolences to the family but stood by the firm's determination that the patient's plan did not cover the transplant.

Cigna went to "two independent experts in the field who agreed that the procedure in question, given the patient's particular circumstances, would not have been an effective or appropriate treatment," Cigna HealthCare President David Cordani and Chief Medical Officer Jeffrey Kang said in the statement.

Sarkisyan was diagnosed with leukemia at 14 and received a bone-marrow transplant from her brother a month ago, but complications arose and she needed the transplant, the reports said.

Doctors from the University of California at Los Angeles Medical Center urged Cigna to enable the transplant.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Corporations get Christmas gifts - Misdeeds get a pass, it appears

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/merry-christmas-corporations-your-misdeeds/story.aspx?guid=%7BBFEB575B%2DC573%2D48C2%2DB20D%2DFEE1EC285287%7D

SANTA MONICA, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- 'Tis the season to let corporations off the hook this year, it seems: some fines have been lowered, some cases tossed and some charges won't be pursued.

Ethical Corporation, the watchdog publication out of London that keeps an eye on things in North America as well as around the world, from a socially responsible perspective anyway, notes Exxon, Caterpillar and Dupont on its December list of corporations getting "off the hook."

Besides Ethical Corporation, other ethics watchers are spinning from the developments, and you'll soon see why:

Exxon Mobil (XOM: 93.66, 0.00, 0.0%) is back in the news related to the famous Valdez spill in 1989. You might remember that the tanker Valdez spilled millions of gallons of crude oil off the coast of Alaska. Well, the U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to review the $2.5 billion in punitive damages owed by Exxon Mobil after all this time.

Exxon, of course, had complained that the fine was excessive under laws governing shipping, especially compared with what courts have imposed before. A federal appeals court already cut in half the original $5 billion fine. Those damages were awarded by a jury more than a decade ago.

The case is now expected to be heard in the spring, and Exxon could get off with an even lesser amount to pay. It should be noted that Exxon earns about $10 billion a quarter.

The government is bringing good tidings to Caterpillar (CAT: 72.70, 0.00, 0.0%) as well. A U.S. federal appeals court dismissed a lawsuit charging that Caterpillar bulldozers aided killing and torture in the Palestinian territories. The heavy-equipment maker was being sued under the Alien Tort Claims Act by the relatives of 16 Palestinians and one American in Israeli demolitions.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Holiday spending raises recession flag: James Saft

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSL2087955720071220?sp=true

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending in the crucial holiday period looks weak, upping the chances that the credit crunch tips the economy into recession.

Americans spent less in stores last week compared to a year ago for the third week running. More of them say they will spend less this year, while fewer say they will spend more.

Little wonder. The seemingly unsinkable American consumer is weighed down by debt, has seen the ATM machine they call home shrink in value and is now finding loans are harder to come by.

With consumer spending accounting for about 70 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, the stakes this Christmas couldn't be higher.

Sales in the week ending December 15 fell 0.4 percent from a year earlier, compared to falls of 2.7 percent and 4.4 percent the two weeks before, ShopperTrak RCT said on Wednesday.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. more from that link: U.S. household debt hit $14.2 trillion in the third quarter

To understand why the outcome of consumer spending is both important and a likely source of recession you need to understand just how deeply indebted they have become.

U.S. household debt hit $14.2 trillion in the third quarter, or a record 138 percent of household disposable income, up from 113 percent in 2002.

"People don't realize how far expenditure is above income. Each year the consumer needs to increase its debts by the equivalent of 4 percent of GDP just to keep that level of that expenditure (consumption plus investment) the same," said Albert Edwards, global strategist at Societe Generale Cross Asset Research.

"With the current imbalance between spending and income, debt carries on ballooning upward just to keep expenditures the same. If the rate of borrowing falls back a bit, expenditure falls back very sharply."

[DemReadingDU]

17. NYT: Holiday Spending Is Weak, as Retailers Expected

Spending from Thanksgiving to Christmas rose just 3.6 percent over last year, the weakest performance in at least four years, according to MasterCard Advisors, a division of the credit card company. By comparison, sales grew 6.6 percent in 2006 and 8.7 percent in 2005.

“There was not a recipe for a pickup in sales growth,” said Michael McNamara, vice president for research and analysis at MasterCard Advisors, citing higher gas prices, a slowing housing market and a tight credit market.

more....
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/26/business/26shop.html?

[burf]

18. Something here does

not make sense. In the past month, the most of the talking heads at CNBC and the "Decider Guy" have told us how strong this economy and the dollar are doing. Makes one wonder just how much of this years Christmas Cheer was put on the plastic. My guess the default rate on credit card payments will be rising.

[DemReadingDU]

20. unpaid credit card bills are rising

Associated Press - December 23, 2007 6:33 PM ET

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Unpaid credit card bills are piling up in a nation seemingly obsessed with plastic. An Associated Press analysis of financial data shows Americans are falling behind on their payments at an alarming rate, resulting in a surge of delinquencies and defaults.

The AP examined 17 large credit card trusts and found the value of accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26% to $17.3 billion in October compared to a year earlier. And some of the nation's biggest lenders report increases of 50% or more in the value of accounts that were at least 90 days delinquent when compared with the same period a year ago.

Until recently, credit card default rates had been running close to record lows. Experts say deteriorating finances are partly a byproduct of the subprime mortgage crisis and could spell more trouble ahead for an already sputtering economy.

http://www.mysuncoast.com/Global/story.asp?S=7536993&nav=menu577_2_1


and it's only going to get worse in 2008

[DemReadingDU]

19. Home prices post record drop

Home prices fell 6.7 percent in October, compared with a year ago, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-city home-price index, a record drop as housing markets continued to deteriorate.

It was the largest drop in more than 16 years and marked the 10th consecutive month of price depreciation and 23 months of decelerating returns.

"No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim," said Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets in a release.

Case-Shiller's 20-city index fell 6.1 percent. Shiller noted that 11 of the markets in the 20-city index posted a record fall.

a bit more...
http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/26/real_estate/Case_Shiller_down/index.htm?postversion=2007122609

[TrogL]

22. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-11-15 Thursday, November 15 1.01999 USD
2007-11-16 Friday, November 16 1.02807 USD
2007-11-19 Monday, November 19 1.01636 USD
2007-11-20 Tuesday, November 20 1.01543 USD
2007-11-21 Wednesday, November 21 1.01071 USD
2007-11-22 Thursday, November 22 1.01071 USD
2007-11-23 Friday, November 23 1.01143 USD
2007-11-26 Monday, November 26 1.01245 USD
2007-11-27 Tuesday, November 27 1.00321 USD
2007-11-28 Wednesday, November 28 1.00939 USD
2007-11-29 Thursday, November 29 1.00725 USD
2007-11-30 Friday, November 30 0.9993 USD
2007-12-03 Monday, December 3 1 USD
2007-12-04 Tuesday, December 4 0.989511 USD
2007-12-05 Wednesday, December 5 0.987459 USD
2007-12-06 Thursday, December 6 0.987654 USD
2007-12-07 Friday, December 7 0.994926 USD
2007-12-10 Monday, December 10 0.989805 USD
2007-12-11 Tuesday, December 11 0.989413 USD
2007-12-12 Wednesday, December 12 0.989413 USD
2007-12-13 Thursday, December 13 0.978857 USD
2007-12-14 Friday, December 14 0.98668 USD
2007-12-17 Monday, December 17 0.992851 USD
2007-12-18 Tuesday, December 18 0.989609 USD
2007-12-19 Wednesday, December 19 0.994431 USD
2007-12-20 Thursday, December 20 1.0017 USD
2007-12-21 Friday, December 21 1.00573 USD
2007-12-24 Monday, December 24 1.01307 USD
2007-12-25 Tuesday, December 25 1.01307 USD
2007-12-26 Wednesday, December 26 1.01688 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0168 1.0185 1.0168 1.0170 +0.0023 +0.23% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0192 1.0207 1.0180 1.0185 +0.0018 +0.18% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0110 1.0140        1.0163 +0.0084 +0.83% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9785 0.9785 0.9780 1.0158 +0.0084 +0.83% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9750 0.9750 0.9750 1.0150 +0.0084 +0.83% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9870 0.9870 0.9870 1.0142 +0.0084 +0.83% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9995 0.9995        1.0134 +0.0084 +0.83% 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.H08 Mar 2008  0.88730 0.88730 0.88730 0.85265  -0.00215 -0.25%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.H08 Mar 2008           0.8662  0.8662  0.8662  +0.0042  +0.48%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.H08 Mar 2008  111.020 111.020 111.020 115.195  +1.705   +1.48%  
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.H08 Mar 2008  1.68140 1.68140 1.68140 1.66340 -0.00355  -0.21%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.H08 Mar 2008   0.7322  0.7325  0.7322  0.7333 +0.0025   +0.34%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.H08 Mar 2008  1.43480 1.43600 1.43480 1.41815 -0.00645  -0.45%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.H08 Mar 2008  163.670 164.170 163.670 164.170 +0.775    +0.48%   
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.H08 Mar 2008  1.43700 1.43700 1.43700 1.44065 +0.00365  +0.25%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday and above the 25% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 100.74. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, the 38% retracement level crossing at 102.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 99.49 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 101.55. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 102.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.62 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 99.49.

Analysis

Yet another :wtf: day. I'm supposed to be on vacation but I saw the graphs and both the Euro and Loonie are on the climb doing x/y so I figure Something Bad happened to the greenback.

[Ghost Dog]

23. China duty cuts lift equities and metals

A strong performance on Asian equity markets helped lift most major currencies against the yen, while oil and industrial metals were supported by moves from China to curb import taxes on certain commodities.

Markets in the UK and across most of Europe were shut for a public holiday on Wednesday, but Asian shares traded higher, while futures trading in the US indicated opening gains on Wall Street.

Tokyo shares rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to end at a two-week high, with the weak yen helping exporters.

...

The Nikkei 225 Average ended the session up 0.7 per cent to 15,653.54.

Bombay's Sensex index climbed 1.7 per cent to 20,192.52, driven by basic materials producers. Aluminium producer Hindalco rose 4.2 per cent to Rs209.40, while Reliance Industries, the refiner and petrochemicals group, added 3.9 per cent to Rs2,896.70. Tata Steel climbed 3.5 per cent to Rs892.75.

On commodity markets metal and oil prices were lifted by China's announcement that it was to scrap import duties on copper, coal and aluminium, and halve tax on oil products starting on January 1.

London Metal Exchange was closed for the Boxing Day holiday, but speculation over Chinese demand in 2008 drove Shanghai copper futures 1.5 per cent higher to Rmb58,850 ($8,030) per tonne. Shanghai aluminium was up 0.2 per cent to Rmb18,280.

Oil prices also climbed on China's announcement, which will halve to 3 per cent import duty on products like diesel and petrol.

...

The yen remained near a seven-week low against the dollar at Y114.09 and fell 0.2 per cent against the euro to Y164.68.

The euro was stronger against both sterling and the dollar as traders continued to expect futher interest rate cuts in the UK and the US, but a more hawkish stance by the European Cetral Bank.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071226/bs_ft/fto122620070655289766;_ylt=AlEulzjSo.qmTBfQmqFs5Qz2ULEF

Rainy season started here, so internet connectivity has been more intermittent than usual...

[Robbien]

24. G-8 Chiefs: "Risks are to the downside"

No shit sherlock

But at least these idiots are talking about the worries caused by the massive influx of hedge fund robber barons into oil and metals markets. It is likely the Hedge funds funny speculations will be doing to those markets what they did to financial markets.

Group of Eight leaders forecast global growth will be solid next year, but risks to the outlook "are firmly on the downside" due mainly to "uneven conditions" in financial markets stemming from the U.S. subprime mortgage turmoil, according to draft discussion papers for the G-8 summit next July in Japan.

The leaders have also grown concerned about the flow of speculative funds into the oil, metal and other raw materials markets, calling the phenomenon a "threat" to the world economy, according to the draft papers, which will serve as a basis for talks by G-8 members in preparation for the summit.

. . .

"We see that the functioning of financial markets is improving, but uneven conditions are likely to persist for some time."

"We acknowledge that securitization and financial innovation have contributed significantly to the growth of the global economy, yet their shortcomings were exposed recently, such as in the areas of liquidity and risk management and methodologies and use of credit rating agencies," they say.

To prevent a recurrence of the subprime woes, G-8 leaders are expected to consider ensuring greater transparency in financial markets and reviewing the roles of credit rating agencies, whose lax evaluations of subprime-related securities products have been blamed for exacerbating the problem, the papers show.

http://www.mbtmag.com/articleXml/LN720982422.html

[Ghost Dog]

27. Business in 2008: Opportunities will rise from a treacherous landscape

Eleven years ago, Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, mused: "How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?"

The answer was we do not; we only discover afterwards. But we do know when exuberance has turned to fear and that is the mood in which many businesses enter 2008. <-- :silly:

...

As this new year approaches, the US has had a perilous few months in markets and the rest of the world is realising how bad the contagion could be. The UK is feeling the effects of the Northern Rock debacle and there are fears of both a housing market crash and a falling currency. The European Central Bank is still pouring liquidity into financial markets. Only the Middle East and Asia motor smoothly onwards, if anything faster.

All of this brings varying degrees of uncertainty and worry to business leaders for 2008, depending on which industries and countries they are in. The common theme is that the landscape is more treacherous than a year ago. It could also be a year in which the brave and deep-pocketed thrive at others' expense.

The most troubled businesses in 2008 are likely to be banks, which are suffering from write-downs of structured credit and lack of liquidity. It is possible, even likely, that there will be a repetition of the liquidity crisis that hit Northern Rock and led to the UK government having to guarantee its deposits. Credit problems have been most obvious at Wall Street banks such as Citigroup and Morgan Stanley but they could easily emerge elsewhere.

That lack of confidence is likely to leak into cyclicals - the car industry is already suffering. It could spread more widely. "Even if you are three steps removed from financials, say in natural gas distribution, you will have a sense that you should be a bit more cautious," says Jack Malvey, chief global fixed income strategist at Lehman Brothers.

Uncertainty and weakness at many businesses will provide opportunities. Chris Zook, head of the global strategy practice at Bain & Company, says that 2008 will see "a significant acceleration" of the rate at which weaker businesses in commoditised industries, from steel and cement to airlines and utilities, are acquired by others. "The softening climate means that companies which are four or five or six in their industries are likely to become shock absorbers in the early part of the cycle."

The end-of-year rush by sovereign wealth funds from Singapore and the Gulf states to buy minority stakes in Wall Street banks is likely to continue and to spread to other industries. The high oil price means these funds must keep buying not only government bonds but public and private equity stakes in order to deploy the cash they are accumulating; and the downturn in the US economy is providing opportunities. Crossing borders will also be an imperative for companies that want to escape tepid consumer markets in their own countries. Investors have realised that globally diversified US companies are likely to have stronger revenue growth than those that focus purely on the US itself, as companies such as General Electric and Procter & Gamble have shown. As a result, US companies will keep trying to expand overseas.

All of these forces will come into play next year whether or not the US goes into recession. In themselves, they will create uncertainty and volatility for companies in many industries. But a US recession - even a short and sharp one - would be even more disruptive.

As the year ends, financiers who felt the brunt of the credit squeeze are becoming pessimistic about the economic outlook. Bill Gross, chief investment officer of the fund manager Pimco, believes the US is already in recession and bankers who were blindsided by the sudden deterioration in credit markets are no longer trying to predict an upturn. "I don't even know what would trigger a recovery," says one banker.

That does not mean they are simply sitting back and hoping for the worst to be over. The stronger firms say that further trouble would suit them. It would create more problems for rivals that misjudged markets, and let them recruit the latter's staff. Distressed debt funds, value investors and bargain-hunters are looking for cheap assets in dislocated markets and troubled industries.

/more... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071226/bs_ft/fto122620071440009806

[Robbien]

25. Jaw dropping stupidity at Northern Rock

SMWers know of the huge problems over at Northern Rock and now the hedge fund vultures are closing in making demands of the crippled bank. No surprise there.

But buried in the article is this

Meanwhile, a Northern Rock small shareholder has opened a new savings account with the beleaguered bank – and urged other others to do the same with money they hold with clearing banks.

"This is an expression of confidence in Northern Rock, a sort of Christmas present for the bank, the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the taxpayer," said Robin Ashby of the Northern Rock small shareholders group.

"I have e-mailed all members of the group asking them to do the same, perhaps with short-term surpluses in current accounts. I would also urge all those who have taken out funds in the last few months – not just shareholders – to come back to the rock.

"If every small shareholder could find £1,000, there would be over £100m available for mortgage lending, and the money from the Treasury for other short-term support could be that much less."

http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/New-year-showdown-for-Northern.3619046.jp

:wow:

Oh sure, all the little Mr and Mrs John Does out there opening up xmas savings accounts at Northern Rock is going to solve the credit liquidity problem.

And even worse, hedge fund vultures are circling and this idiot is telling people to hand over their cash?

double :wow:

[ozymandius]

29. Fork stickin' time.

Dow 13,551.69 Up 2.36 (0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,724.41 Up 10.91 (0.40%)
S&P 500 1,497.66 Up 1.21 (0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.281% Up 0.069
NYSE Volume 2,025,040,125
Nasdaq Volume 1,260,348,625

4:20 pm : On Wednesday, stocks struggled shortly after the opening bell on disappointing news regarding consumer spending and worse-than-expected home price data. The S&P 500 managed to end the day slightly above the unchanged mark, though, after stocks were lifted by the disclosure of two investments in a pair of flagging financial companies. Trading volume was light, as many traders were on an extended holiday.

MasterCard reported overall holiday sales through Dec. 24 were up a modest 3.6%, compared to last year's 6.6% increase. Excluding gasoline, retail sales increased by only 2.4%.

Target (TGT 51.16, -1.31) was the worst performing retail stock after the company warned its December same-store sales will come up short of expectations. The company said it now expects sales to be down 1% to up 1%, well below the previous forecast that called for sales to rise 3% to 5%.

Internet retailer Amazon.com (AMZN 92.85, +1.84) bucked today's negative retail trend after the company said it had its best holiday season ever in 2007. Strong demand for GPS systems, digital cameras, high-definition televisions and other consumer electronics helped boost sales. Amazon is also outperforming the S&P 500 Retailing Index year-to-date, its stock has soared more than 130%, which is in contrast to the 17% drop in the Index.

In acquisition news, Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 138,500, +520) is acquiring 60% of Pritzker family owned Marmon Holdings for $4.5 billion. Berkshire will purchase the remaining 40% of the company during the next five to six years at a price based on future earnings of Marmon.

The stock market recovered to the unchanged mark in afternoon trade after Davis Selected Advisors disclosed a new 5.1% stake in struggling bond insurer MBIA (MBI 22.33, +2.21).The disclosure aided other mortgage finance names, such as Ambac (ABK 30.14, +3.46).This investment in MBIA follows Monday's announcement that Davis would invest $1.2 billion in Merrill Lynch (MER 54.54, +0.64).

On a related note, British billionaire Joe Lewis disclosed a 9.57% stake in Bear Stearns (BSC 89.29, +0.49). The news helped send the company's shares into positive territory. His previous stake in the company was 8.1%.

On the economic front, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index indicated October home prices dropped a more than expected 6.1% year-over-year. Economists expected a drop of 5.7%. Of the 20 metropolitan areas that make up the Index, Miami was hit the hardest with a 12.4% decline year-over-year. Only three areas saw prices rise, led by a 4.3% gain in Charlotte. The report has spurred some selling interest in the residential REITs group (-2.6%).

Of the six sectors that traded lower, the consumer discretionary sector (-0.5%) was the main laggard, in part due to the weakness in retailers (-1.2%). The financial sector (-0.5%) was also a laggard, as REITs were under selling pressure following the weaker than expected home price data.

The energy sector rose 1.2% thanks to the 1.9% rise in crude oil prices. Telecom posted a decent gain of 1.3%.DJ30 +2.36 NASDAQ +10.91 NQ100 +0.4% R2K +0.3% SP400 -0.3% SP500 +1.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1317/1667/1.23 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1598/1570/839 mln