STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday December 27

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday December 27, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 390 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2536 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2258 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2219
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 26, 2007

Dow... 13,551.69 +2.36 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq... 2,724.41 +10.91 (+0.40%)
S&P 500... 1,497.66 +1.21 (+0.08%)
Gold future... 829.50 +13.00 (+1.57%)
30-Year Bond 4.69% +0.07 (+1.47%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.28% +0.07 (+1.64%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Update on Refiners

BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

A previous WrapUp on October 10th looked at a potential rebound for refinery stocks based upon historical price relationships between crude oil prices and refinery margins, 3-2-1 crack spread. Typically a bottom in refinery stocks is seen when the ratio of crude oil prices to the crack spread rises to several standard deviations above the long term average (10+ years), with tops in refinery stocks seen when the ratio falls below the average.

In October the ratio peaked at a multiple of 18.64, nearly six standard deviations below the average multiple over the past ten years of 5.5, which indicated that refining margins were severely depressed relative to crude oil prices.

-chart-

Refining margins typically track closely with crude oil, with the multiple of the two primarily oscillating within two standard deviations of the average (between the two solid red lines). However, as can be seen in the figure above over the last two years there have been dramatic price swings primarily the result of elevated crude oil prices from supply disruptions and geopolitics as refiners are not able to pass on as much of the cost inflation (crude oil) to the consumer by way of higher gasoline prices, thus refinery margins become depressed relative to crude oil.

This presents attractive entry points into positions in refinery stocks as reversion to the long term average is likely. As seen in the figure below, refining margins undershot crude oil in October of 2006 and set the stage for a rebound in refinery margins that later overshot crude oil prices in late May of this year. Again, refining margins have undershot the price of crude oil causing the crude oil to crack spread multiple to rise nearly six standard deviations above the average, with a reversion to the mean underway.

....

It is widely known that no refinery has been built domestically in roughly 30 years, with the number of domestic refineries falling from 325 in 1980 to few than 150 today. The age of currently operating refineries presents a problem as more maintenance and capital investment will be required to keep them running. This has the potential to lead to longer outages and greater maintenance work that will led to lower refinery utilization and gasoline production. Lower refinery utilization is a greater problem today than in the past as refinery capacity is below levels seen in 1980 making us more dependent on imports of gasoline.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Durable Orders Nov
Briefing Forecast 4.0%
Market Expects 2.2%
Prior -0.2%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/22
Briefing Forecast 345K
Market Expects 340K
Prior 346K

10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Dec
Briefing Forecast 87.5
Market Expects 87.0
Prior 87.3

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 12/21
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior -7586K

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

13. Initial Claims in at 349,000 - last week rev'd up 2k

03. U.S. Nov. durable goods orders ex-defense rise 1.2%
8:30 AM ET, Dec 27, 2007 - 6 minutes ago

04. U.S. Nov. durable goods orders ex-transport fall 0.7%
8:30 AM ET, Dec 27, 2007 - 6 minutes ago

05. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 75,000 to 2.71 mln
8:30 AM ET, Dec 27, 2007 - 6 minutes ago

06. U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims down 1,000 to 342,500
8:30 AM ET, Dec 27, 2007 - 6 minutes ago

07. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 1,000 to 349,000
8:30 AM ET, Dec 27, 2007 - 6 minutes ago

08. U.S. Nov. durable goods orders rise 0.1%
8:30 AM ET, Dec 27, 2007 - 6 minutes ago

[bain_sidhe]

54. Voodoo math

(Apologies to practitioners of Vodun)

Last week's initial jobless claims revised up 2,000

This week's claims rise 1,000...

So, the number of people who lost their jobs last week was actually up 3,000 from the level reported last week (which is what most people will remember).

Neat trick... because we all know a 1,000 increase in the jobless is way better than a 3,000 increase. See? Things don't look so bad, now, do they?

It's not quite ponies-for-everyone territory, but way better than it *could* have looked.

[ozymandius]

23. Durable-Goods Orders Edge Up

WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. factories saw orders for costly manufactured rise only marginally in November -- falling short of expectations for a much bigger gain and underscoring the strains to the economy from housing and credit problems.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that orders for "durable" goods -- products expected to last at least three years -- increased by just 0.1 percent last month. The tiny rise came after durable-goods orders fell by 0.4 percent in October. Economists were hoping for a larger rebound -- of a 2.2 percent increase -- in new orders placed at the nation's factories in November. Still, the November rise did mark the first increase in durable-goods orders in the last four months.

....

Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, which can swing widely from month to month, demand for all other costly manufactured goods fell by 0.7 percent in November, marking the second straight monthly decline.

Orders for machinery, computers and electronic products, communications equipment, defense aircraft and fabricated metal products all posted declines in November. However, those losses were more than offset by gains in demand for electrical equipment and appliances, automobiles, commercial airplanes and primary metals, including steel. That led to the small rise in overall durable-goods orders in November.

Demand for capital goods, excluding aircraft -- a category considered a good proxy for business investment -- fell by 0.4 percent in November, the second straight monthly decline.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071227/economy.html

[UpInArms]

38. Crude Inventories: U.S. crude inventories down 3.3 mln barrels in latest week

02. U.S. gasoline inventories up 700,000 barrels in latest week
10:31 AM ET, Dec 27, 2007 - 15 minutes ago

03. U.S. distillate stocks down 2.8 mln barrels in latest week
10:31 AM ET, Dec 27, 2007 - 15 minutes ago

04. U.S. crude inventories down 3.3 mln barrels in latest week
10:30 AM ET, Dec 27, 2007 - 16 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

39. Consumers smoking crack - U.S. Dec. consumer confidence 88.6 vs. 87.8 in Nov.

06. U.S. Dec. consumer confidence above 86.4 expected
10:00 AM ET, Dec 27, 2007 - 46 minutes ago

07. U.S. Dec. consumer confidence 88.6 vs. 87.8 in Nov.
10:00 AM ET, Dec 27, 2007 - 46 minutes ago

[ozymandius]

3. Oil down ahead of US supply report

LONDON - Oil prices fell Thursday ahead of the release of U.S. fuel inventory data expected to show that crude stockpiles fell last week.

At midmorning in Europe, light, sweet crude for February delivery was down 69 cents to $95.28 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract had jumped $1.84 on Wednesday as traders braced for what was expected to be the sixth straight decline in U.S. crude stockpiles in the report to be released by the Energy Department.

....


In the weekly inventory data, oil supplies are expected to fall by 1.2 million barrels, according to the mean of forecasts by analysts in a Dow Jones Newswires survey. The drop is expected because of a decline in imports that market watchers blame in part on fog that kept tankers outside the Houston Ship Channel last week.

Distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, are seen falling by about 600,000 barrels, according to the analysts' average, while gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels.

Refinery use is seen increasing by 0.6 percentage point to 88.4 percent of capacity.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Stocks end flat on unease about consumer

NEW YORK - Stocks finished largely flat Wednesday as investors returned from the Christmas holiday to news of weaker-than-expected retail sales. A jump in oil prices also concerned Wall Street.

The International Council of Shopping Centers said its index of retail chain store sales rose 2.8 percent last week, rounding out a sluggish December performance that puts merchants on track for a smaller sales gain than the trade group originally expected. Still, there is some hope sales will rebound as shoppers start spending with holiday gift cards.

Other reports released alongside Christmas proved disappointing. Target Corp. indicated its sales may have fallen in December, while MasterCard Inc. said holiday spending — including credit, cash and checks — climbed a modest 3.6 percent between Thanksgiving and Christmas, weighed by a slowdown in sales of women's apparel. That compares with a rise of 6.6 percent over the same period last year. The 2007 holiday figure is at the low end of its 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent range. Excluding gasoline and auto sales, that figure was 2.4 percent.

The news could raise concerns about the strength of consumer spending and, in turn, the economy. However, it has been widely expected that holiday sales would be slow.

A report that U.S. home prices fell for the 10th consecutive month in October also appeared to limit stocks' gains.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071226/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

[ozymandius]

5. Retailers look for post-holiday bump

NEW YORK - The nation's retailers slashed prices further Wednesday in hopes that a post-Christmas shopping rush will salvage holiday sales that, so far, have fallen below even modest expectations. They're waiting in particular for legions of shoppers armed with gift cards to snap up bargains and buy new merchandise that has just hit store shelves.

Merchants in past years have received a late bounce during big clearance markdowns, and they find themselves again in the position of hoping that bargain-hunting consumers will come through in the end. Gift card sales are not recorded until shoppers redeem them.

Investors, however, are more pessimistic about this holiday season and the financial well-being of consumers in a challenging economic environment. Shares of most retailers fell Wednesday.

....

The International Council of Shopping Centers said Wednesday that same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year during the November-December period, are coming in just below already slim projections for a 2.5 percent gain, though it said a post-Christmas buying splurge could erase that shortfall. That contrasts to a more upbeat assessment from its chief economist, Michael P. Niemira, who predicted following the weekend that holiday sales could at least meet forecasts.

Target Corp. warned late Monday that its same-store sales might decline for December. Meanwhile a broad gauge of consumer spending released by Mastercard Advisors — a division of the credit card company — that includes estimates for spending by check and cash, reported Tuesday an increase of 3.6 percent from Nov. 23 to Dec. 24, the low end of expectations. That compared with a 6.6 percent gain in the year-ago period. Excluding gas purchases, holiday sales were up only 2.4 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071227/ap_on_bi_ge/post_christmas_shopping

[TalkingDog]

32. Non-econ here with a serious question:

Okay first, I know that markup prices on most of these good are ridculously high. But having worked in theatre managment I also know that a decent fraction of that goes to paying the help, admninistration, running the physical plant and purchasing goods/materials.

When these news articles say retail stores only made 2.4 percent, I'm assuming we are still discussing monies in the profit margin. How little can they make before they start collapsing under their own weight?

And if they keep lowering prices just to keep pace, when does that exactly constitute a deflation? Intellectually, I understand the definition, but I don't know what the demarcations are in praxis.

Somebody with a good analogy or two, toss me a bone.

Always appreciate the (sometimes unintended) education I get here. Thanks.



My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[Hugin]

51. I've had many questions in my head lately, too.

Like how can an economy be expected to maintain a 20% annual growth rate? When historically over time the
best markets have only returned between 5% and 7% after inflation.

Why are labor costs always blamed for everything bad when incomes have stagnated or declined over the last 30 years?

So many questions...

Sorry, I don't have an answer for you. But, you're not the only one wondering... I'd like some answers too. :)

[Roland99]

55. Retail traffic declines 10.6% last week, ShopperTrak says

Retail traffic declines 10.6% last week, ShopperTrak says
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/retail-traffic-declines-106-last/story.aspx?guid=%7BC8CC4682%2D57E4%2D451C%2DBD7A%2DA2C74CB915E4%7D&dist=hplatest

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. retail foot traffic for the week ended Dec. 22 fell "a significant" 10.6%, contributing to a sales drop of 2.2% during the same period, according to ShopperTrak RCT Corp.'s retail traffic index, which gauges mall traffic. Total U.S. foot traffic for the month of December through Christmas Eve declined 4.36%, while total holiday season foot traffic, including a boost from post-Thanksgiving weekend traffic, was expected to decline 2.5%, ShopperTrak said. "Various economic pressures plus the availability of certain online deals may have caused some people to conserve and make as few trips as possible to retail locations last week," said Bill Martin, ShopperTrak co-founder.

[ozymandius]

6. U.S. stocks head for flat open

NEW YORK - U.S. stocks headed for a mixed open Thursday as investors awaited consumer confidence figures that Wall Street hopes will give some clues about the economy's direction in the new year.

Investors will also receive readings on durable goods orders and weekly jobless figures as well as domestic crude oil inventories.

The handful of economic data arrive as those investors returning from the Christmas holiday are trying to assess whether initial lackluster readings on holiday shopping signal fatigue among consumers who have been battered by weakness in the housing market and higher prices for energy, food and other goods and services.

The Conference Board will issue its report on December consumer confidence, and economists surveyed by Thomson Financial predict confidence dipped this month compared to November.

The weekly reading on workers seeking unemployment benefits, while considered volatile, is nonetheless important for investors as employment is considered crucial to maintaining consumer spending, which represents about two-thirds of economic activity in the U.S.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071227/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

[ozymandius]

7. Mortgage mess tops 2007 housing topics

Inflation floats all boats. If this was not the reality of the housing industry the past decade, it was certainly the perception.

How can you ask consumers to use caution in their home-buying decisions when one respected gauge the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index showed that single-family homes gained 84 percent in value from 2001 through 2006.

This astounding run-up led to over-building, over-lending, over-borrowing and over-selling. All caution flew out the door. The concept of purchasing a house for home and hearth was replaced by purchasing a house to make money and get ahead financially.

The resulting thud: defaults, foreclosures, lower home prices, more expensive mortgage money -- was the most talked-about real estate story of 2007.

....

The subprime market's reputation has been damaged by unscrupulous lenders who have taken advantage of borrowers unfamiliar with the mortgage process. They have not given enough time to explain the "worst case scenario" payments and timeframes. Often, these borrowers have qualified for better rates and fees than they actually received but simply did not understand what they were signing. Bait-and-switch stories often surface and language challenges for immigrants are common.

http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2007/12/26/mortgage__mess_tops_2007_housing_topics/

[ozymandius]

8. The Original Subprime Crisis (opinion & historical fact)

WHILE critics of today’s mortgage crisis call for government intervention to suppress subprime lending, few are aware that government intervention created subprime mortgages in the first place.

The National Housing Act of 1968, part of President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society, provided government-subsidized loans to expand home ownership for poor Americans. Liberal policymakers hoped that these loans, called Section 235 loans, would enable poor Americans — urban blacks in particular — to buy their own homes.

....

By 1971, Congressional and press investigations found the program riddled with fraud. Section 235 accelerated existing white flight by providing poor African-Americans with money to buy out their anxious white neighbors, who in turn accepted below-market prices for their houses. Real estate agents frightened white homeowners with visions of all-black neighborhoods financed by government money, and then pocketed the proceeds from the resulting high home turnover.

....

But corrupt opportunists were not the only reason Section 235 failed. Structurally the program could not work because it tried to solve a problem of wealth creation through debt creation.

Homeowners cannot build equity in an overvalued house, no matter what the terms of the mortgage. Whether that inflated value comes from corrupt inspectors or frenzied markets is immaterial. The crisis, now as then, is a symptom of inequality — not its cause.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/26/opinion/26hyman.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

[ozymandius]

9. Analyst Increases Estimates Of Merrill Lynch Write-Downs

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) may write off between $4 billion and $7 billion this quarter, according to a note from CIBC World Markets analyst Meredith Whitney following the U.S. firm's capital boost on Monday.

She previously estimated write-downs of $6 billion.

very brief

[ozymandius]

10. Sallie Mae to raise $2.5 bln to pay off forward contracts

SLM Corp. said Wednesday it will sell $2.5 billion in stock and other securities to raise cash needed to settle contracts under which it effectively bet that its own stock wouldn't fall sharply in price.

The company, better known as Sallie Mae, said it will sell $1.5 billion in common stock and $1 billion in preferred stock that will convert later into common stock. The sales will dilute current shareholders' stake in the company.
Sallie Mae's shares fell 6% in after-hours trading to $20.80.

While a number of financial services companies have sold equity to bolster their capital bases as they try to weather the credit crunch, Sallie Mae's goal is to raise funds to make good on contracts under which it agreed to purchase SLM Corp. shares from its banks at set prices if the value of its stock fell.

Sallie Mae entered into the contracts under its share buyback program. On Wednesday, the company said it will spend about $2 billion to settle the contracts by purchasing more than 44 million shares of stock. That means the student lender will be paying around $45 a share, more than twice the current value of its stock. Any remaining proceeds from the equity sales will be used for general corporate purposes, SLM said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sallie-mae-raise-25-bln/story.aspx?guid=%7BF1623707-C6DE-45CD-9351-34F8765137FC%7D

[ozymandius]

11. Rate cuts will hammer dollar: Chinese official

BEIJING (AP) -- Further cuts in U.S. interest rates would have a "harmful effect" on the dollar and the international finance system, a Chinese finance official wrote in a commentary Thursday in an official newspaper.

The dollar's fall against many currencies has prompted investors to sell dollar-denominated assets, Hu Xiaolian, director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, wrote in the Financial News, a newspaper published by the central bank.

....

Despite his warning, Hu wrote, "the U.S. dollar's dominant position in international currency markets is unlikely to change in the near term."

The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered its federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other for overnight loans, to 4.25 percent, a full percentage point lower than it was in September, to ease a credit crunch in the U.S. financial system.

Chinese officials have said that cutting the rate could encourage investors to move money to Asia or elsewhere in search of better returns, which could depress the dollar.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/27/news/international/bc.apfn.as.fin.china.us.dollar.ap/index.htm?postversion=2007122707

[Roland99]

12. CNBC foresees a stabilizing and even a rising dollar in 2008.

WHEEE!!

[ozymandius]

15. You mean C 'N' B C(een)?

They would trumpet the magic of capitalism if Citi went belly-up.

[ozymandius]

14. Citi could cut dividend by 40%

NEW YORK (AP) -- Citigroup could cut its dividend by 40 percent and write down billions of dollars more than expected in the fourth quarter, Goldman Sachs analysts said, forcing it to raise even more capital than it already has.

"Although we have seen many firms take the appropriate actions in recent weeks as they relate to write-downs and capital raises, we still believe it will be a couple of quarters before the current credit crisis is fully digested by the markets," wrote Goldman analysts William F. Tanona, Betsy Miller and Neil C. Sanyal in a note to investors late Wednesday.

The analysts said Citi could write off as much as $18.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

Goldman's projection estimates write-offs as much as 70 percent higher than the $8 billion to $11 billion Citi forecast in early November, when it ousted Chief Executive Charles Prince as the extent of its bad bets in mortgage-related debt became known.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/27/news/companies/bc.apfn.apfn.citigroup.ahead.ap/index.htm?postversion=2007122708

[UpInArms]

16. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.115 Change -0.088 (-0.11%)

Top 10 Trading Lessons from 2007

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Top_10_Trading_Lessons_from_1198512279550.html





<snip>



...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Enron Case Settled

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/19/business/19enron.html?ex=1355720400&en=26ba475fbf6ef41d&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Deutsche Bank has agreed to pay creditors of the Enron Corporation, the energy trading company, $25 million to settle a lawsuit related to transactions between the companies, Enron said on Tuesday.

The Enron Creditors Recovery Corporation, said Deutsche Bank would get $35 million for its remaining interests in three transactions. The bank agreed essentially to give up $416 million of claims against Enron as part of the deal.

[Hugin]

40. Gee, $25 mil for $416 mil... Sounds like a fair trade to me.

:crazy:

[Robbien]

56. Hedge fund fraud case settled also

Futures and options broker MF Global Ltd. agreed to pay more than $77 million to settle federal charges that it failed to watch over a hedge fund charged with fraud more than two years ago. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission settled the charges with MF Global, formerly known as Man Financial. The government said the company did not adequately supervise accounts used by Philadelphia Alternative Asset Management Co., a hedge fund that regulators charged with fraud in summer 2005. The hedge fund, the CFTC said, lost about $133 million in MF Global accounts, but hid large losses by restricting Internet access to accounts and backdating execution dates of some trades executed through MF Global.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20071227/BUSINESS/712270400/-1/newssitemap

A whole bunch of dirty dealing going on in the hedge fund world, and these guys are just unlucky to have been caught at it.

[UpInArms]

18. This Is the Sound of a Bubble Bursting

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/23/business/23house.html?ei=5087&em=&en=32f4dbfe6fb3752a&ex=1198904400&pagewanted=all

TWO years ago, when Eric Feichthaler was elected mayor of this palm-fringed, middle-class city, he figured on spending a lot of time at ribbon-cuttings. Tens of thousands of people had moved here in recent years, turning musty flatlands into a grid of ranch homes painted in vibrant Sun Belt hues: lime green, apricot and canary yellow.

Mr. Feichthaler was keen to build a new high school. He hoped to widen roads and extend the reach of the sewage system, limiting pollution from leaky septic tanks. He wanted to add parks.

Now, most of his visions have shrunk. The real estate frenzy that once filled public coffers with property taxes has over the last two years given way to a devastating bust. Rather than christening new facilities, the mayor finds himself picking through the wreckage of speculative excess and broken dreams.

Last month, the city eliminated 18 building inspector jobs and 20 other positions within its Department of Community Development. They were no longer needed because construction has all but ceased. The city recently hired a landscaping company to cut overgrown lawns surrounding hundreds of abandoned homes.

“People are underwater on their houses, and they have just left,” Mr. Feichthaler says. “That road widening may have to wait. It will be difficult to construct the high school. We know there are needs, but we are going to have to wait a little bit.”

Waiting, scrimping, taking stock: This is the vernacular of the moment for a nation reckoning with the leftovers of a real estate boom gone sour. From the dense suburbs of northern Virginia to communities arrayed across former farmland in California, these are the days of pullback: with real estate values falling, local governments are cutting services, eliminating staff and shelving projects.

Families seemingly disconnected from real estate bust are finding themselves sucked into its orbit, as neighbors lose their homes and the economy absorbs the strains of so much paper wealth wiped out so swiftly.

...more...

[ozymandius]

19. Jeebus! That's harsh.

I pity those who thought they'd realized a dream.

[ozymandius]

22. Pain Street USA: '08 housing outlook

The forecast is for a longer, deeper home-price slump than previously expected, with double-digit declines in many markets.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The United States is deep in its worst housing slump since the Great Depression, and according to a new report, it's not going to get better any time soon.

In a new survey, Moody's Economy.com says many metro areas will record losses of 20 percent or more during the downturn, with the national median price for single-family homes dropping 13 percent through early 2009. Factoring in discount offers from sellers, the actual price decline would be well over 15 percent.

Eighty of the 381 metro areas covered by the report will record double-digit losses, according to the report. Most of the worst-hit markets are in once high-flying areas, such as California and Florida.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/19/real_estate/steeper_price_slump/index.htm?postversion=2007122116

[ozymandius]

25. Atrios on RMBS ratings downgrade watch

http://atrios.blogspot.com/2007_12_23_archive.html#6242020112685844264

Basically Fitch is saying the insurance is crap and the assets are probably crap. If one side of the deal, at least, doesn't pull it together it's all gonna come crashing down.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

---

Go there and read the story.

[ozymandius]

20. Mortgage applications tumble

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Mortgage application volume dropped 7.6 percent during the week ending Dec. 21, despite a drop in interest rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly application survey.

The MBA's application index fell to 603.8 from 653.8 the previous week.

Refinance volume fell 8.5 percent during the week, while purchase volume dropped 6.6 percent. Refinance applications accounted for 53 percent of total mortgage applications during the week ending Dec. 21.

The index peaked at 1,856.7 during the week ending May 30, 2003, at the height of the housing boom.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/27/real_estate/bc.apfn.apfn.mortgageapp.ap/index.htm?postversion=2007122708

[ozymandius]

21. Mortgage mess has government scrambling

WASHINGTON (AP) -- After a slow and stumbling start, Washington is scrambling to prevent the unfolding mortgage crisis from pushing the country into recession during an election year. There is a strong feeling, though, that the government will need to do more to avert a financial disaster.

Former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers advocates temporary tax cuts and emergency spending on the order of $50 billion to $75 billion. Such action could help the U.S. from slipping into what Summers, who served under President Clinton, fears could become the worst downturn since the steep 1981-82 recession.

Some Republicans are worried, too.

Both Martin Feldstein, who was President Reagan's top economic adviser, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan have called for deeper government intervention.

...

Also gaining some currency is the idea of a government agency modeled after the Resolution Trust Corp. of the S&L days that would buy up mortgage-backed securities as a way of dealing with bad loans. If the government spent $150 billion to $200 billion to purchase mortgage-backed securities, the thinking goes, it would prevent a fire-sale that would drive prices of these securities even lower.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/24/real_estate/mortgage_crisis_next_moves.ap/index.htm

[ozymandius]

24. futures numbers and blather

09:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.8.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.8. The futures market continues to point to a negative start following the killing of Pakistan's form Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and the weaker than expected economic data. The Dept. releases its weekly energy inventory report at 10:30 ET. The report was delayed a day due to the Christmas holiday. Crude oil is trading up 0.7% to $96.65 per barrel.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Futures slipped on reports that ex-Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was killed by a suicide bomber. Futures then dip a bit more on a pair of economic reports. The Dept. of Commerce reports that November durable orders rose 0.1%, which was less than the consensus estimate of 2.0%. Separately, there were 349K initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 22. Economists expected 340K claims.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.3. Early indications suggest a slightly higher open for the stock market. Goldman Sachs said Citigroup (C) may cut its dividend by 40% and may write-down $18.7 bln in CDOs, which is more than the previous estimate of $11 bln. There are a handful of economic reports. Durable orders (consensus 2.2%) and initial claims (consensus 345K) are both set to be released at 8:30 ET. Consumer confidence (consensus 87.0) is slated for release at 10:00 ET.

[w8liftinglady]

26. will the death of Bhutto have any impact on the market today?

[ozymandius]

28. That event seems to have an impact on oil prices.

Crude oil is trading up 0.7% to $96.65 per barrel.

[Ghost Dog]

50. Investors seek safety after Bhutto death

Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday after Benazir Bhutto, Pakistan's opposition leader, was killed in a gun and bomb attack leading to a flight to safety in US markets.

News of her death prompted safe-haven buying in US treasuries. Gold hit a fresh one-month high amid fears of heightened geopolitical tension in the region while crude oil futures also rose after the news.

US equities were also hit by news that durable goods orders rose much less than expected last month, adding to fears of a US economic slowdown.

Financials were weak after Goldman Sachs warned of more writedowns in the brokerage sector and said Citigroup (NYSE:C) may cut its dividend.

However investors in the retail sector were offered some respite after an index of US consumer confidence rose unexpectedly.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071227/bs_ft/fto122720071039459874

:-(

[ozymandius]

27. The opening ugly

9:52
Dow 13,495.03 Down 56.66 (0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,715.89 Down 8.52 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,491.39 Down 6.27 (0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211% Down 0.07
NYSE Volume 190,192,562.5
Nasdaq Volume 109,820,367.188

09:45 am : Stocks open modestly lower on a pair of weaker than expected economic reports and news that Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was killed by a suicide bomber.

On the economic front, durable goods orders rose by 0.1%, which was lower than the expectation of a 2.0% rise. Separately, weekly initial jobless claims came in at 349K. Economists expected a reading of 340K.

Goldman Sachs said that Citigroup (C) may cut its dividend by 40% and may write-down $18.7 billion in debt, which is higher than previous estimate of $11 billion. Goldman also said it expects a larger write-down at JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Merill Lynch (MER). This news did not have much of an effect on the broader market in futures trading, which is a stark contrast to a month ago when it would have slammed the entire market.DJ30 -66.82 NASDAQ -10.72 SP500 -7.42

[ozymandius]

29. Bhutto Death, Weak Data Send Stocks Down

Stocks Fall Following Bhutto Assassination, Weak Increase in Durable Goods Orders

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks fell in early trading Thursday after the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto and after the U.S. government reported a weak increase in durable goods orders.

Bhutto's assassination raised the possibility of increasing political unrest abroad, always an unsettling prospect for investors. Oil, gold and bond prices rose following the news.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said orders for durable goods -- big-ticket items from commercial jetliners to home appliances -- rose by just 0.1 percent last month. Economists had been looking for a rise of 2.2 percent. Still, November saw the first rise in durable-goods orders in the last four months.

The notion that the economy is slowing was also unnerving for the market.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071227/wall_street.html

[ozymandius]

30. The 10am thud cometh.

10:04
Dow 13,477.72 Down 73.97 (0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,711.89 Down 12.52 (0.46%)
S&P 500 1,489.86 Down 7.80 (0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211% Down 0.07
NYSE Volume 279,592,718.75
Nasdaq Volume 171,292,656.25

[UpInArms]

31. GLOBAL MARKETS-Gold, bonds rise after Bhutto death

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL2770807220071227

LONDON, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Gold and government bonds rose while U.S. stock futures fell on Thursday after news Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was killed in a gun and bomb attack after a rally in the city of Rawalpindi.

Financial market moves accelerated after weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data released shortly after the news. Data showed new orders for long-lasting U.S.-made manufactured goods rose by a much less-than-expected 0.1 percent during November.

Gold <XAU=> rallied to a one-month high, reaching $834.70 an ounce.

Analysts say the shock of the Bhutto news triggered a classic capital flight to assets which are considered as safe havens in times of geopolitical stress.

"(Bhutto) is just a concern. The move to gold is the flight to safety and quality on the headlines on a quiet illiquid day," said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

...more...

[Hugin]

34. ...

:hi:

Nice to see you back UIA! :D

[Hugin]

35. Oh, and Platinum hit a new record high... n/t

[UpInArms]

37. it's good to be back!

lessons on power dependency learned and then some :mopsbrow:

:hi:

:hug:

[Hugin]

47. Looks like you were on the 'good list' this year and Santa brought you some POWAH!

:D

[Hugin]

33. Reports of Wal-Mart Gift Cards Not Working

"Imagine how frustrated you'd be to get a gift card for Christmas, you go in the store today to use it, and find out it won't work?

Well, that's happening to thousands of Wal-Mart customers across the country and, here, in Charlotte.

Joe Casco said he and his family went to the Wal-Mart at 9101 Albemarle Road to use a gift card they received on Christmas.

They filled up their cart and went to the check out to use the card.

That's when they found out the gift card wouldn't work.

The manager said there was a technical problem affecting stores nationwide.

Casco was upset the store didn't have a note posted at the front door to alert customers before they wasted time shopping.

Instead, he went across the street and shopped at Target.

The following is posted on the Wal-Mart website:

"Last Updated: Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Earlier today, we were made aware that some of our stores had issues with processing gift cards. We immediately investigated and discovered that our third-party verifier’s systems had an inadvertent processing error, causing Wal-Mart and other retailers to experience delays in gift card verifications. We are working with the supplier to resolve the issue as quickly as possible and we apologize for the inconvenience to our customers."

Story Created: Dec 27, 2007 at 9:46 AM EST

Story Updated: Dec 27, 2007 at 9:46 AM EST"

http://www.wbtv.com/news/topstories/12848687.html
_____________________________________________________________________________

Looks like Wal-Mart has decided to play the "Gift" Card loophole. (You know that fine print you don't
read when you buy one.)

My New Year's prediction... Wal-Mart's year end profit statement will somehow correlate to the percentage
of unredeemable 'gift' cards. Probably the 10% of people who won't bother to fight this. How convenient
for Wal-Mart that it was a 'third-party processing error'. "Gift cards make theft legal", should be
the headline.

Just sayin' :eyes:

[ozymandius]

41. This happened to me years ago with a Home Despot gift card.

They all but accused my sister of stealing the gift card, saying that it wasn't "properly activated" at the time it was (*may have been*) purchased.

[DemReadingDU]

44. I enclose the receipt with the gift card

That way, there is proof of purchase!

[Hugin]

45. I just give cash...

Very few restrictions or fine print on cash.


If the recipient chooses they can even put it into savings or an investment. :think:

Also, I'm lazy and it saves me from having to go to the store. :zzzz:

But, yes... Always include the receipt with a gift card. (for lots of reasons)

Great advice DemReadingDU! :)

[DemReadingDU]

53. Actually, this year, I gave cash too!

Cash for my kids and grandkids bank accounts.

I did not step into any stores this holiday season, nor bought anything online. Everyone loves cash!

:)

[UpInArms]

36. 10:41 EST What Santa Giveth - the Markets Taketh Away

Dow 13,448.86 102.83 (0.76%)
Nasdaq 2,707.16 17.25 (0.63%)
S&P 500 1,487.81 9.85 (0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.22% 0.061

NYSE Volume 498,438,375
Nasdaq Volume 312,097,593.75

10:30 am : Stocks are off their lows, but continue to trade with modest losses. All ten economic sectors remain in negative territory. Similar to yesterday, volume is light as many traders take an extended holiday.

Just reported by the Energy Information Administration, for the week ended Dec. 27 crude oil inventories slipped by 3.3 million barrels. Analysts expected a smaller stockpile drop of 1.5 million barrels. Crude oil for February delivery was trading up 0.4% to $96.35 just prior to the report.DJ30 -66.33 NASDAQ -9.25 SP500 -6.45 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1780/862/219 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1773/1068/95 mln

10:00 am : Just hitting the wires, the Conference Board said December consumer confidence rose to 88.6. A reading of 87.0 was expected. The major indices did not react much to the data, as they continue to post a loss.

All ten of the economic sectors are in the red, with financials (-0.9%) leading the decline after Goldman Sachs raised its write-down estimates on a handful of Wall Street banks. The materials sector (-0.9%) is also a laggard.DJ30 -75.41 NASDAQ -12.87 SP500 -7.72 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 817/1563/89 mln

[Neshanic]

42. CNBC say recession is not going to happen. Consumer confidence is up.

[Delphinus]

43. Really?!

Wonder which consumers they're talking to. No one that I speak with thinks we're not already there!

[Hugin]

49. Well, SEE, it didn't happen in 2008!

... chalk another one up for CNBC!

:lol:

[JNelson6563]

46. They always say that

When I feel anxious about the economy I just tune into CNBC. My friends there, like Steve Liesman and the rest of the gang, can all be counted on to tell me that everything is fine, great in fact! All the "bad" news is really good news!

Julie--who excludes Rick (The Great) Santelli from the pack of cheerleader~whores on CNBC and the like

[fascisthunter]

48. They Say it to Keep Investors from getting scared

Just like the dot.com crash, many, many folks will get screwed.

[Roland99]

52. 12:14 - Still dropping

Dow 13,414.88 -136.81
Nasdaq 2,697.65 -26.76
S&P 500 1,484.83 -12.83
10 YR 4.23% -0.06
Oil $97.30 $1.33
Gold $835.00 $5.50

[lovuian]

57. oil up to 96.73 but was a dollar higher earlier on

approaches the 100/barrel marker

[Roland99]

58. And we ended up at...

Dow 13,359.61 -192.08
Nasdaq 2,676.79 -47.62
S&P 500 1,476.27 -21.39
10 YR 4.20% -0.08
Oil $96.62 $0.65
Gold $831.80 $2.30

[JNelson6563]

60. Picked up downward momentum toward the end, eh?

An ugly, bloody day on several levels.

Julie

[Viva_La_Revolution]

59. "Investors don't like uncertainty" ... Oh, Really?

"Investors don't like uncertainty" ... Oh, Really?
12/27/2007 4:08:01 PM


By Robert Folsom

"Investors don't like uncertainty" is one of Wall Street's most time-honored, stupid clichés. We haven't heard it much lately, but that could change very soon, given the stock market trend -- a flood of "investors don't like uncertainty" articles could begin any day.

You could say that the notion sounds practical until you think about it, oh, for 12 seconds. It assumes that something resembling "certainty" is normal in politics, international affairs, economics, and finance when in fact there is no such thing. Today's assassination of Pakistan's former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, as she campaigned for the parliamentary elections, is a case in point.

But it's possible to make the argument that about seven years ago the markets were rising, the economy was raging, international affairs were stable, and a popular two-term president dominated the political scene.Wasn't all the "certainty" of that moment in time consistent with U.S. history for the past 50 years?

more - http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=mw*aid=3583*time=pm

[fascisthunter]

61. 1 Euro= $1.45

thanks conservatives... thanks for nothing.

[ozymandius]

62. Here's how The Ugly ended.

Dow 13,359.61 Down 192.08 (1.42%)
Nasdaq 2,676.79 Down 47.62 (1.75%)
S&P 500 1,476.37 Down 21.29 (1.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.199% Down 0.082
NYSE Volume 2,368,107,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,456,901,250

4:15 pm : The stock market had a bearish bias throughout the trading day on Thursday. The major indices each finished at or near their worst levels of the session, and all ten economic sectors closed in the red.

The main selling catalysts were a Goldman Sachs report that several Wall Street banks will have larger than expected write-downs and a disappointing durable orders economic release. The assassination of a former Pakistani Prime Minister provided some additional selling pressure.

Goldman Sachs said Citigroup (C 29.52, -0.93) may cut its dividend by 40%, and raised its write-down estimate to $18.7 billion, up from $11 billion, according to Bloomberg.com. Goldman also doubled its write-down estimates on JPMorgan Chase (JPM 43.64, -1.30) and Merrill Lynch (MER 53.20, -1.34). The report acted as a noticeable drag on the influential financial sector (-2.2%), which finished the day as the main laggard.

Regarding today's economic data, November durable orders rose 0.1%, which was less than the expected 2.2% rise. Excluding transportation, orders declined 0.7%, compared to the expectation of a 0.5% rise. Business investment trends are sluggish, but the data don't indicate a recession. The weaker than expected data is serving as a profit taking catalyst in the materials sector (-1.8%), which is one the best performing sectors year-to-date (+21%).

Jobless claims basically held steady at 349K for the week ended Dec 22. The data were more than the expected 340K claims, but remains lower than recessionary levels. On a positive note, the Conference Board reported December consumer confidence rose to 88.6, higher than the expected reading of 87.0. The better than expected report had a muted effect on the stock market.

Reports of the assassination of former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto added to the negative bias today, although not as much as the media is making it out to be. After the suicide bombing hit news wires, stock market futures modestly slipped while oil, gold, and Treasury bonds gained. The media, though, is attributing too much of today's weakness to the murder. If it was the main selling catalyst, the European markets would most likely not have finished the day with a gain. In addition, the bottom-line impact for U.S. companies from this tragedy is insignificant.

Crude oil (+$0.65 $96.62) closed higher after the government's weekly inventory report showed stockpiles declined by a larger than expected amount. The gains in crude were not able to lift the energy sector (-1.0%) into positive territory, although it did outperform on a relative basis. DJ30 -192.08 NASDAQ -47.62 NQ100 -1.4% R2K -3.0% SP400 -1.5% SP500 -21.39 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2331/716/1.32 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2446/759/832 mln