STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 31

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 31, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 386 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2540 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2262 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2223
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 28, 2007

Dow... 13,365.87 +6.26 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq... 2,674.46 -2.33 (-0.09%)
S&P 500... 1,478.49 +2.12 (+0.14%)
Gold future... 842.70 +10.90 (+1.29%)
30-Year Bond 4.51% -0.10 (-2.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.10% -0.10 (-2.45%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp BY TIM W. WOOD

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[specimenfred1984]

21. "Rather, my opinion is based strictly on statistical analysis and very specific indicators"

Sphincter says what?

[ozymandius]

31. Pro Forma

Whenever Tim Wood authors the WrapUp this post is always "Pro Forma". Notice how nonexistent the snippets are from his writings. The poor man still believes the 1896 rules somehow apply today.

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermint reports today n/t

[UpInArms]

18. U.S. Nov. median existing-home price down 3.3% vs. year ago

02. Nov. existing-home inventory falls to 10.3-month supply
10:00 AM ET, Dec 31, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

03. U.S. Nov. median existing-home price down 3.3% vs. year ago
10:00 AM ET, Dec 31, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

04. U.S. Nov. existing-home sales in line with expectations
10:00 AM ET, Dec 31, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

05. U.S. Nov. existing-home sales rise 0.4% to 5.0M pace
10:00 AM ET, Dec 31, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices moderate on US econ concerns

VIENNA, Austria - Oil prices edged up Monday amid continuing awareness of tighter U.S. inventories, recovering ground after a decline in the previous session on concerns about the U.S. economy.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery added 12 cents to $96.12 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by noon in Europe.

On the ICE future exchange in London, Brent crude was selling for $94.60 a barrel, up 72 cents.

The contract fell 62 cents to settle at $96 a barrel Friday after a report showed weak figures on new home sales in the United States. The data again raised fears about a possible economic slowdown in the world's largest consumer of oil products.

Oil prices remain supported, though, by concerns about supply disruptions from the oil-rich Middle East. As well, Vienna's PVM Oil Associates noted that "falling inventories in the US may have affected prices in a bullish way."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

17. Oil steady near $96, eyes biggest gain this decade

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUST3904820071231?sp=true

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil steadied near $96 a barrel on Monday, heading for its biggest annual gain this decade as dwindling fuel stocks and growing concern over political turmoil offset the impact of a softening U.S. economy.

U.S. crude edged 30 cents lower to $95.70 a barrel by 8:15 a.m. EST, while London Brent crude gained 31 cents to $94.19.

With prices starting the year at around $61, oil is now up almost 58 percent. It hit an all-time high of $99.29 on November 21 as a falling dollar and thinning inventories stoked investor interest.

Oil's rally is entering its seventh year, more than quadrupling its market value of below $20 at the start of 2002.

If prices hold, they will register their best performance for a front-month contract since 1999, when oil prices more than doubled from a $10 low.

Oil is set to average around $72.30 this year, up about 9 percent from 2006.

In January, as futures prices tumbled, analysts had expected prices to fall to an average $63.23 a barrel this year, according to a Reuters poll.

...more...

[ozymandius]

4. Gold heads for largest yearly rise in 3 decades

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold was on track for its biggest yearly gain since 1979, with prices hovering on Monday about $10 away from its historic highs.

The metal has jumped more than 30 percent this year as a slide in the dollar, record high oil prices, credit market turmoil, falling U.S. interest rates and geopolitical tension helped to increase its safe-haven appeal.

In the past days, the metal gained on speculative buying driven by dollar weakness and tensions in Pakistan following the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

....

Spot gold hit a 7-week high of $843.20 an ounce before falling to $834.70/835.40 by 6:17 a.m. EST, compared with $837.80/838.50 in New York late on Friday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071231/bs_nm/markets_precious_dc

[Ghost Dog]

26. U.S. gold ends lower, but up 25 pct for year

NEW YORK, Dec 31 (Reuters) - U.S. gold closed lower Monday
in light profit-taking on the last day of 2007, but the market
was up almost 25 percent for the year, with analysts expecting
the bull run to continue.

"You've got the end of the year today, and naturally you're
going to see some chop in volatility," said Zachary Oxman,
senior trader and analyst at Wisdom Financial. "But I expect
this to be very short-term and very short-lived."

Most-active gold futures for February GCG8 settled down
$4.70, or 0.6 percent, at $838 an ounce on the COMEX metals
division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, moving between
$847.40 and $833.00.

...

Monday's high in February gold was 20 cents short of its
Nov. 9 peak of $847.60, and traders put that as first
resistance to testing the contract's Nov. 7 record high of
$855.

...

In the physical bullion market, the price of spot gold
<XAU=>was up around 30 percent from a year ago. It hit a
seven-week high of $843.20 an ounce in Monday's European trade,
before sliding to $832.70/$833.50 in New York's afternoon
business, against Friday's late quote of $837.80/$835.50.

Silver for March delivery SIH8 was up $2.50, or 0.2
percent, at $14.92 an ounce. The contract was up about 10
percent on the year.

Spot silver <XAG=> was at $14.77/14.82 an ounce, compared
with New York's late Friday quote of $14.72/$14.77.

Platinum for January PLF8 closed down $12.10, or 0.8
percent, at $1,528.40 an ounce. The benchmark contract surged
33 percent on the year amid a tight physical market due to
lower output from top producer South Africa.

Spot platinum <XPT=> was quoted at $1,520/$1,525, against
New York's late Friday trade of $1,534/$1,538.

Palladium for March PAH8 finished up $8.15, or 2.2
percent, at $378.2 an ounce.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN3158160120071231?rpc=44

[ozymandius]

5. New home sales drop to lowest in 12 yrs

WASHINGTON - The housing market plunged deeper into despair last month, with sales of new homes plummeting to their lowest level in more than 12 years.

The slump worsened even more than most analysts expected, heightening fears that the country might be thrust into a recession.

New-home sales tumbled 9 percent in November from October to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 647,000, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was the worst sales pace since April 1995.

"It was ugly," declared Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. "It is the one sector of the economy that doesn't show any signs of life. It doesn't look like there is any resuscitation in store for housing over the next year," he said.

The housing picture turned out to be more grim than most anticipated. Many economists were predicting sales to decline by 1.8 percent to a pace of 715,000.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071231/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

[ozymandius]

6. Recession question to mark 2008

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street is set to end 2007 with modest gains this week and kick off the new year with all eyes trained on jobs data for signs of recession that could make 2008 a hostile environment for stocks.

Volume will probably be thin on Monday, when New Year's Eve coincides with the final trading day of 2007. The market will be shut for New Year's Day on Tuesday. But Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will be closely watched because the first five trading days tend to mirror the market's performance over the course of the year.

....

MILD DECEMBER JOBS FORECAST

The nonfarm payrolls report, the most closely watched U.S. employment indicator, is set for release on Friday. Economists expect the data to show the economy added 70,000 new jobs in December, compared with 94,000 in November.

The ADP National Employment report, a measure of private-sector employment, is set for release on Thursday. The indicator, which is seen as a preview to the government's payrolls report, is forecast to show a gain of 50,000 jobs in December.

Signs of trouble in the job market emerged on Thursday when weekly initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly and the number of longer-term unemployed workers rose to its highest level in more than two years. Another round of weekly jobless claims data is set for release on Thursday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071230/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc

[ozymandius]

7. This week brings jobs data, Fed minutes

NEW YORK - As 2007 comes to a close, Wall Street is almost as jittery as it was over the summer, when worries about the housing slump and banks' losing bets on mortgages first came to a head.

Investors know more now about how much exposure financial institutions have to bad loans — quite a lot — but they remain uncertain about how the credit crisis of 2007 will hurt the economy in 2008. Market participants will be paying close attention to this week's economic data, particularly the monthly report on employment, seen as the most important factor in preventing housing woes from crippling consumers.

.....

The three major indexes will finish the year with gains, barring any extraordinary drops Monday, but problems with credit, housing and the financial sector are likely to keep Wall Street nervous at least early on in 2008.

It's been a dismal fourth quarter for the stock market, and the "Santa Claus rally" Wall Street often launches at the end of every year failed to gain steam. The Dow has fallen 3.8 percent since the end of September, when many investors were driving the blue-chip index toward record heights and betting that the worst of the credit crunch was over.

....

Wall Street will start the new year with minutes from the Federal Reserve's Dec. 11 meeting, when policy makers lowered key interest rates by a quarter point. The move at the time disappointed investors who had been hoping for a more aggressive cut to keep the financial system running fluidly. Any comments implying the Fed is worrying more about inflation and hesitant to reduce rates further could jolt the market.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071231/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street_week_ahead

[DemReadingDU]

19. Robert Shiller says America could plunge into recession

12/31/07 Top economist says America could plunge into recession
Suzy Jagger in New York


Losses arising from America’s housing recession could triple over the next few years and they represent the greatest threat to growth in the United States, one of the world’s leading economists has told The Times.

Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, predicted that there was a very real possibility that the US would be plunged into a Japan-style slump, with house prices declining for years.

Professor Shiller, co-founder of the respected S&P Case/Shiller house-price index, said: “American real estate values have already lost around $1 trillion <£503 billion>. That could easily increase threefold over the next few years. This is a much bigger issue than sub-prime. We are talking trillions of dollars’ worth of losses.”

He said that US futures markets had priced in further declines in house prices in the short term, with contracts on the S&P Shiller index pointing to decreases of up to 14 per cent.

Related Links
Middle America will continue to feel the pinch
Wall Street braces itself for more sub-prime misery

more...
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3111659.ece

[ozymandius]

8. Asian markets strong in 2007

BANGKOK, Thailand - Asian stock markets had a strong, if volatile, year with China leading the pack as investors bet on the region's continued growth prospects.

Several exchanges notched gains of more than 20 percent and among Asia's major markets, only Japan and New Zealand ended the year with losses.

But the outlook for 2008 remained clouded by soaring oil prices, accelerating inflation in both China and India, and above all, the health of the U.S. economy.

....

The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 96.7 percent on the year, the world's best performing major bourse for 2007. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 11.1 percent and the benchmark NZX-50 in New Zealand fell 0.3 percent.

....

On Friday, a report from Goldman Sachs said mortgage-related writedowns at U.S. banks may deepen, helping to send several markets lower on their last trading day of 2007 and fostering broad pessimism about the U.S. economy next year.

Oil prices and the unfolding credit crisis in the United States have extensive ramifications in Asia, which depends on exports to the world's largest economy for growth. The U.S. is the world's largest consumer of oil. In addition to cutting the buying power the American consumer, rising energy costs can cut into industrial demand.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071231/ap_on_bi_ge/asian_markets_in2007

[Ghost Dog]

9. GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil, gold near record highs to cap turbulent yr

LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Oil and gold prices stayed close to record highs on Monday, while global stock indices slipped as political instability mounted in nuclear-armed Pakistan and trading volume stayed thin on the last day of 2007.

Markets in Japan, South Korea, China, Germany and Italy were closed while London and Paris have a shortened trading day but shares in Pakistan slid almost 5 percent to a three-week low in their first reaction to the killing of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, whose death last week plunged the country into crisis.

The index is not allowed to move more than 5 percent in a session. The Pakistani rupee fell to a six-year low against the dollar <PKR=>. Bhutto was killed on Thursday ahead of Jan. 8 elections, throwing into doubt a smooth transition to civilian-led democracy after almost a decade of military rule.

The turmoil has helped trigger a flight to safer assets like bonds precious metals while the yen is benefiting from investors' reluectance to hold risky positions over the holiday.

In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was marginally weaker while Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE and the French CAC 40 .FCHI eased about 0.3 percent.

The pan-European index looks set to end the year with gains of about 1.5 percent versus 16 percent in 2006 -- its worst annual performance since 2002.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL3137785320071231?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

11. European stocks up 1.5% in '07, worst since 2002

LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - European equities ended flat on Monday in thin trade as key markets stayed closed, with the region notching a slender gain of 1.5 percent in 2007, its worst performance since 2002 as a credit crunch whacked stocks.

By 1305 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index closed up 0.04 percent at a provisional 1,506.6. The year's gains paled with a 16 percent jump recorded in 2006.

The DJ STOXX basic resources index , took pole position this year with a 28 percent rally while banks were the worst performers, down 16.8 percent, in a sector battered by losses tied to credit markets and the outlook for equities is still uncertain.

"The key question is the knock-on effect the subprime problem has in terms of slowing growth, consumer lending and the overall impact that has in the wider market," said Andrea Williams, head of European equities at Royal London Asset Management.

UK and French markets ended weaker in a shortened trading session ahead of the New Year's Day holiday while German, Italian and Spanish markets remained closed.

On the year, the FTSE 100 index .FTSE rose 3.8 percent versus a 11 percent rise last year and France's CAC 40 .FCHI edged up 1.3 percent versus a 17.5 percent rally in 2006.

Germany's DAX index .GDAXI was a star performer, up 22 percent, matching last year's gains and Spain's Ibex index .IBEX added 7 percent versus a 32 percent surge last year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL3138358720071231?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

10. FOREX-Dollar under pressure as housing data weighs

LONDON Dec 31 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Monday as weak data fuelled speculation of more U.S. interest rate cuts while the yen benefited from jitters caused by turmoil in Pakistan and ongoing financial concerns.

The dollar was still smarting from weak U.S. new home sales data on Friday which added to speculation the Federal Reserve would have to cut rates further next year, perhaps a number of times.

"There are some uncertainties around the housing market and which this data underscores and this has led to renewed dollar weakness," said Phyllis Papadavid, currency strategist at Societe Generale.

By 0822 GMT, the euro was steady at $1.4713, having earlier hit a three week high of $1.4747 <EUR=>.

Against a basket of currencies the dollar was down 0.15 percent at 76.115, having earlier touched a three-week low of 75.962 .DXY leaving it down over 9 percent for the year as a whole.

Credit concerns and geopolitical jitters also kept investors away from carry trades, where they borrow at low rates in yen and Swiss francs to buy higher-yielding currencies.

Instability in nuclear-armed Pakistan after the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto has prompted investors to cut back riskier positions and buy save-haven assets like gold, Treasuries and the Swiss franc.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL3133219620071231?rpc=44

[UpInArms]

12. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&t=f

- seeing as this is the last day of the year, I have used the link for the yearly chart for the dollar - I do advise you all to go and look at the downward trend that this chart will show you is occurring - I wish I knew where this will end, but it isn't going to be pretty -

Last trade 76.013 Change -0.096 (-0.13%)

US Dollar - The Odds Are Against A Major Comeback...For Now

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Dollar_The_Odds_Are_1199082454267.html

The US Dollar tumbled significantly last week amidst heightened risk aversion following the assassination of former Pakistani PM Benazir Bhutto. Indeed, the greenback was clearly not even close to being the “safe haven” of choice, as the Euro and Swiss franc saw the greatest gains. Meanwhile, US data has been broadly mixed, with consumer confidence surprisingly proving to be more optimistic, while production and housing figures have been generally disappointing. Nevertheless, with fed fund futures pricing in a 90 percent chance of a 25bp rate cut by the FOMC on January 30, pure interest rate differentials raise the risk of further declines in the greenback. Add to that the geopolitical turmoil that has re-emerged and the low liquidity we see so often around this time of year, and the situation is ripe for softness in the US dollar.

Looking ahead to this week, many of these issues will remain pertinent, as housing data, ISM manufacturing, ISM non-manufacturing, and employment reports – including the market-moving non-farm payrolls release – are all anticipated to weaken. Moreover, the IMF reported over the weekend that international foreign exchange reserve holdings of the US Dollar dropped to 63.8 percent in Q3 from 66.5 percent a year earlier, as central banks increased their holdings in the Euro to 26.4 percent in Q3, up from 24.4 percent a year ago. This is a slow trend that we will likely see continue, as the Euro-zone is a major player in the international arena when it comes to the financial markets and trade. Now, this doesn’t mean the greenback is destined to become worthless in 2008, but as Technical Strategist Jamie Saettele said Friday in his Daily Technical Report, EUR/USD may be on its way to 1.50 and beyond. Currently, the odds are against the beleaguered dollar, and until the FOMC takes a more firm monetary policy stance that does not waver in the face of the market’s demands, or until other central banks (like the ECB) jump on the rate-cut-bandwagon, additional losses may be on the way.



...more...

Bad News Leads to More Dollar Weakness

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Bad_News_Leads_to_More_1198880292716.html

The US dollar continued to weaken after news that the help wanted index dropped from 22 to 21 in the month of November and new homes sales fell to 12 year lows. Any hope for a housing market recovery has been eradicated by today’s release as the steep decline points to the lack of buyers. Prospective homeowners are holding out until they see a bottom which is certainly not healthy for a market that desperately needs buyers. Interestingly enough, the median price of a new home actually rose $10,000 while inventories dropped. Still, the data suggests that the housing downturn is not over. On Monday, we are expecting existing home sales which should reconfirm the overall vulnerability of that sector. Chicago PMI was also released today and even though the index bucked the trend of other manufacturing reports by jumping from 52.9 to 56.6, the dollar failed to budge in the minutes following the release as traders held off for the new home sales report. In the week ahead, bond markets have an early close on Monday and all financial markets are closed on Tuesday. However this does not mean that it will be a week without volatility. It would actually be very surprising if that became the case because we have a lot of important US data due for release including existing home sales, manufacturing and service sector ISM and non-farm payrolls. Conditions in the labor market are expected to deteriorate because of a rise in jobless claims and a drop in the employment component of the Chicago PMI and Philly Fed indexes.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. FOREX-Dollar on track for biggest annual loss in 4 yrs

http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSL3138194320071231?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=trueLONDON Dec 31 (Reuters) - The dollar fell versus a basket of major currencies on Monday, keeping it on track for its worst annual performance in four years, as investors speculated that 2008 could bring slower U.S. economic growth and lower interest rates.

Following Friday's weaker than expected U.S. new home sales data, futures markets are now pricing in a 90 percent chance of a quarter percentage point Federal Reserve rate cut to 4.0 percent in January FEDWATCH.

In total, they have priced in nearly 100 basis points of cuts over the next nine months, making the dollar a much less attractive bet for yield-hungry investors.

The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed speculators reducing their net short dollar position to its smallest since June, suggesting there is plenty of scope for more dollar selling in the future.

"It's not looking particularly pleasant (for the U.S. economy) and it does mean that this dollar-bearish story is starting to re-establish itself," said Sebastien Galy, FX analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort.

"If you look at the IMM positioning you'll see that dollar shorts have been reduced ... so the potential for the dollar to continue to weaken has increased into next year," he added.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

25. FACTBOX-Top performing major currencies in 2007

 NEW YORK, Dec 31 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell across
the board in 2007 and suffered the deepest losses against the
Canadian dollar, among the world's most heavily traded major
currencies.

 The greenback registered its biggest decline against the
Canadian currency in four years, down almost 15 percent and
falling below parity for the first time in 31 years.

 The extent of the U.S. currency's weakness in 2007 was
largely not predicted. The 12-month forecast for the euro,
according to the median estimate from a Reuters poll a year
ago, was $1.32. But it is currently trading at around $1.46.

 The table below shows the dollar's performance against nine
major currencies this year and the current 12-month forecasts.

 CURRENCY         2007 CLOSE  ANNUAL %   12-MO FORECAST

                               CHANGE    
U.S. dlr/Canadian        0.9930    -14.8         1.04
U.S. dlr/Norwegian Crown 5.4291    -12.9         5.57
Australian/U.S. dlr      0.8768     11.1         0.87
Euro/U.S. dlr            1.4599     10.6         1.40
New Zealand/U.S. dlr     0.7664      8.9          N/A
U.S. dlr/Swiss franc     1.1331     -7.0         1.16
U.S. dlr/yen             111.38     -6.4        110.0
U.S. dlr/Swedish Crown   6.4603     -5.6         6.51
Sterling/U.S. dlr        1.9848      1.3         1.96

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAN3156863720071231?rpc=44

[UpInArms]

14. Record Number of Data Breaches in 2007 After TJX Credit-Card Thefts, Groups Report

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071231/data_breaches.html

BOSTON (AP) -- The loss or theft of personal data such as credit card and Social Security numbers soared to unprecedented levels in 2007, and the trend isn't expected to turn around anytime soon as hackers stay a step ahead of security and laptops disappear with sensitive information.

And while companies, government agencies, schools and other institutions are spending more to protect ever-increasing volumes of data with more sophisticated firewalls and encryption, the investment often is too little too late.

"More of them are experiencing data breaches, and they're responding to them in a reactive way, rather than proactively looking at the company's security and seeing where the holes might be," said Linda Foley, who founded the San Diego-based Identity Theft Resource Center after becoming an identity theft victim herself.

Foley's group lists more than 79 million records reported compromised in the United States through Dec. 18. That's a nearly fourfold increase from the nearly 20 million records reported in all of 2006.

Another group, Attrition.org, estimates more than 162 million records compromised through Dec. 21 -- both in the U.S. and overseas, unlike the other group's U.S.-only list. Attrition reported 49 million last year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. 9:53 EST and in the red

Dow 13,318.31 -47.56 -0.36%
Nasdaq 2,665.00 -9.46 -0.35%
S&P 500 1,472.71 -5.78 -0.39%
10 Yr Bond(%) 4.0370% -0.0590

[UpInArms]

16. Slow growth, inflation eats global profits

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN3053625620071231?sp=true

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Corporate profit margins are set for an uncomfortable squeeze in 2008 as companies pay more for materials yet have little leeway to raise prices.

Inflation is tricky enough on its own, but when it comes along with slowing economic growth, the pain is magnified because cash-strapped consumers often force companies to absorb the bulk of the pricing pressure.

Recent inflation reports suggest that many businesses are doing just that. The rate of inflation at the factory gate far outstripped consumer price increases in both the United States and Britain in November.

This week, investors will get an early peek at inflation data for December with surveys of global purchasing managers -- the people who make buying decisions for businesses -- from both the manufacturing and services sectors.

The November reports showed input prices spiked as oil, food and other commodities remained stubbornly high, powered by demand from fast-growing emerging markets such as China.

December's numbers are likely to reflect more of the same, and with oil once again approaching $100 per barrel, inflationary pressures look likely to linger.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

20. Merrill in talks for bigger boost to capital: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co (MER.N) is in talks with Chinese and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds that could lead to the sale of another big stake in the U.S. bank, British newspaper The Observer reported, citing sources in London and New York.

The Observer report, published this weekend, follows Merrill's announcement last Monday it was shoring up its capital base by as much as $7.5 billion by selling up to $6.2 billion in shares to Singapore's Temasek (TEM.UL) and asset manager Davis Selected Advisers.

...

"The multi-billion cash injection from Temasek was not enough and Thain is taking calls from a host of other potential saviors, which are understood to include sovereign fund investors from the Gulf and China," the newspaper quoted a US observer as saying.

...

Analysts expect another large write-down for Merrill Lynch in the fourth quarter, with some estimating the hit will be bigger than the $8.4 billion write-down Merrill recorded in the third quarter.

/.. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071231/bs_nm/merrill_dc;_ylt=AjYAL6M00E8ADuVaEjS9SEK573QA

[UpInArms]

22. 11:18 EST DOW off almost 100 points

Dow 13,268.81 97.06 (0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,649.36 25.10 (0.94%)
S&P 500 1,467.55 10.94 (0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.04% 0.056

NYSE Volume 635,894,625
Nasdaq Volume 423,611,125

11:00 am : Stocks extend their losses, trading at fresh intraday lows. All ten economic sectors are in the red. News has been slow, and volume remains light.

2007 Performance Review: It is too close to call which Dow Jones Industrial Average Component will be the best performing this year. Honeywell (HON), Merck (MRK) and McDonald's (MCD) are all posting gains near 35%. Citigroup (C; -48%) is the worst performing Dow Component this year.
DJ30 -72.68 NASDAQ -21.51 SP500 -8.83 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1985/861/309 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1915/1140/183 mln

10:30 am : There has been a bit of choppy trading during the past half hour. The major indices continue to post modest losses, with nine of the ten economic sectors posting a loss. Telecom (-1.2%) is pacing the decline. Utilities (+0.01%) is in the green, although it is basically at the unchanged mark.

2007 Performance Review: Although the large gains in crude oil (+54%) have dominated headlines this year, it is not the best performing commodity year-to-date. RBOB Gasoline leads the way with an 81% rise, while Kansas Wheat comes in second with a 74% rise. Zinc posted the largest loss of 49%.DJ30 -50.81 NASDAQ -16.51 SP500 -6.90 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1786/1001/215 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1964/1007/109 mln

[UpInArms]

23. check this updated blather

11:30 am : The stocks market continues to slip, hitting fresh session lows. There has not been a specific news item to account for the selling pressure, and declines have been broad-based. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is modestly underperforming the other indices, with weakness in the tech sector (-1.0%) to blame.

Crude oil has given up earlier gains, and is now posting a loss of 0.8%.

2007 Performance Review: The weakness in the dollar has been making headlines this year, as the DXY Index has fallen 8%. The euro has made a hefty 11% gain against the dollar this year, but that is not enough to crack the top ten list. The Turkish Lira leads the way with a 21% gain, while the Brazilian Real comes in second with a 20% gain. The Zimbabwe dollar comes in last with a whopping 99% loss. A July 2007 report states Zimbabwe's inflation is running at roughly 20,000%, according to the UK's Guardian. DJ30 -109.66 NASDAQ -24.76 SP500 -12.33 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2083/813/422 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2100/991/253 mln

[Roland99]

27. 3:59pm - Dow had cut losses in half but now back to triple digits

Dow 13,257.34 -108.53
Nasdaq 2,651.51 -22.95
S&P 500 1,468.08 -10.41
Oil $95.98 $-0.02
Gold $838.00 $-4.70
10 YR 4.04% -0.06

[UpInArms]

24. Profit projections slide for fourth quarter - S&P 500 cos to lose 6.1 percent

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN3155842820071231?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Projections for S&P 500 companies' fourth-quarter earnings swung to a 6.1 percent drop on Monday from an 11.5 percent rise on October 1, in the biggest quarterly move since Reuters Estimates started compiling analysts' forecasts in 1999.

The sharp decline comes as financial write-downs and an economic slowdown take their toll on corporate results, pushing down forecasts for the fourth quarter.

First- and second-quarter estimates have also fallen significantly. Analysts now expect first- and second-quarter earnings to rise just 5.1 percent and 5 percent, respectively, according to Ashwani Kaul, senior market analyst at Reuters Estimates.

That's down from an October 1 expectation of 11.4 percent earnings growth for the first quarter and 9.4 percent growth in the second.

"The surge in analysts' conservatism is primarily the result of the subprime crisis in the U.S. and globally and its impact on the write-downs in the financial sector," said Ned Riley, chief investment officer at Riley Asset Management.

...more...

[AnneD]

28. Afternoon Marketeers.....

:beer: and lurkers. It is never too early to get a head start on your New Year's Eve. I am in the sunny state of Arizona with the fam. Haven't done much of anything unless you count eating out, playing yatzee (we are pretty cut throat on that), the odd bit of shopping, and knitting as doing something. It has been a nice break for me. Teen age daughter is chafing at the bit and has been completing college applications and scholarship papers. Grandma drives her crazy because she talks alot. I try to explain that one day, Grandma won't be around to talk to me-and I will be very sad. So for now-her constant talking is like music to my ears (I am quite like my daughter-I think that is an Indian thing). It's the old words are silver, silence is gold thing.

There are many things that I have seen and some things are a bit disturbing as far as the future of AZ and our country. But it will take a while to absorb them all and fit the puzzle pieces into a picture. I really miss the wide vistas and the stark beauty that is here in the deserts. It is nice for my lungs to get a nice break.

Happy New Year......and watch out for the bears...

[UpInArms]

29. Year is Done - stickin' the fork in

Dow 13,264.82 101.05 (0.76%)
Nasdaq 2,652.28 22.18 (0.83%)
S&P 500 1,468.36 10.13 (0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.035% 0.061

NYSE Volume 2,478,001,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,528,908,500

4:25 pm : There will be plenty of celebrating tonight as revelers welcome the new year. During business hours, though, it looked as if stock market participants were already hungover as the indices languished in negative territory the entire session.

There wasn't any noteworthy news to account for the lack of buying interest, but it was noteworthy that the early losses were broad-based, particularly since the Existing Home Sales report for November was better than feared. Specifically, home sales rose 0.4% to an annualized rate of 5.00 million units, which was in line with expectations.

At their lows of the morning, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were down 119, 28 and 13 points, respectively.

Those losses were pared considerably in the early afternoon behind a bargain hunting effort in the financial (+0.7%) and consumer discretionary (-0.3%) sectors. The recovery effort, however, failed in striking fashion in the final half hour as the indices ended 2007 with a whimper.

Again, there wasn't any specific news catalyst for the reversal of fortune. Bids just dried up and sellers led the way to a weak close in another thinly-traded session. Volume at the NYSE was just shy of 1.2 billion shares.

Despite the late day retreat, the market still ended the year with a gain, albeit a modest one, which marked the fifth straight year the S&P 500 has recorded a gain.

The S&P 500 gained 3.5%, excluding dividends. That left it trailing the Dow and Nasdaq, which were up 6.4% and 9.8%. The S&P 400 Midcap Index gained 6.7% while the Russell 2000, an index of small-cap stocks, declined 2.8%. Separately, large-cap technology issues drove the Nasdaq 100 to an 18.7% gain.

With that we mark the end to 2007. We look forward to covering the market for you in 2008 and wish you a very happy new year! DJ30 -101.05 NASDAQ -22.18 SP500 -10.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1632/1426/1.47 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1671/1501/1.15 bln

Happy New Year Everyone!

Before the next year is out - we will know more about the direction of this country - hopefully it will not continue in the downward spiral that this crapweasel illegitimate squatter regime has taken us.

:hi:

[Roland99]

30. Hmm...interesting Dec/Adv numbers there, actually.

A flight from the biggies?