STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 14 January (#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday January 14, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 376
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 33 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 85 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 297
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 781
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 13, 2004

Dow... 10,427.18 -58.00 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq... 2,096.44 -15.34 (-0.73%)
S&P 500... 1,121.22 -6.01 (-0.53%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.03% -0.06 (-1.35%)
Gold future... 424.00 -2.60 (-0.61%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

"Points of Interest"

<cut>
Last week NASDAQ, provided the best set up, but this week we need to turn our attention to the SP. To give you a better idea of the different possibilities, we'll take a look at the SP500, which offers the cleanest and most illustrative picture of the current situation. We can see that it is in a well defined rising channel, it reached channel resistance, and all the pertinent indicators are at the top of their respective ranges as well. Consequently, this would be a perfect place for the SP to pull back. Unfortunately, the markets rarely make it that easy. Based upon our observation of price behavior the last 15 years that we have been students of the markets, we believe that the three most possible scenarios are the ones shown in chart 2, 3, and 4. If Friday's pullback continues into the first part of the week, and the SP finds support between 1006 and 1095, then we can get another run towards channel resistance between Wednesday and Friday to be followed by another decline next week, as shown in chart #2. If the 1106-1095 can't provide support, then we ought to look for a further decline to 1080, and then another rally towards the highs to be followed by a decline towards channel support, as shown in chart #3. Finally, if the SP can stay above 1108, and ideally above 1114, then in all likelihood, it will ultimately break out of channel resistance and rally towards the 1160-1175 zone, as shown in chart #4. Keep in mind that there are other possible scenarios, but these three tend to be the most common. From a trading point of view, if scenario #2 was to take place, we could have 5 potential trades, each about 30-40 SP points.

<cut>
Last but not least, we have a significant development with regard to the intermediate and long term. Notice that the Dow is at a triple resistance point, which actually defines a bull from a bear market. The red line is the declining top line going back to 2000, the blue line is the 2002 bear market top, and the black line is the long term support for the indices dating back to 1991, which was violated in 2002 and now represents long term resistance. The triple resistance point for the Dow is at 10650.

If the Dow manages to overcome this triple resistance point, then all three significant resistance lines will be invalidated, and by definition, the bear market for the Dow is finished and we would expect new all time highs to follow. Moreover, the current phase of the rally should extend by another 4.5%-6%, before it pauses. On the other hand, if the triple resistance holds the indices down, then by definition the bear market is still in effect.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Frodo]

2. So, what he's saying is....

...We're either going to go up or down from here?

I need to get a job forcasting the market! This stuff is easier than I thought.

[ozymandius]

3. Basically, yes.

With a 50% chance of rain - it might rain and it might not.

My sentiments too. There are many "free" opinions here on this thread that lay so many "paid" ones to waste.

[Maeve]

11. Well, at least he's a bit more honest than most

If A happens, then B, but if C, then D (and E, then F are also possible....) And he's a chart-wonk. Nothing wrong with that, but they seldom venture clear predictions.

Always adding the "to be fair" POV! ;-)

Anyone for coffee??

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

[JNelson6563]

4. Good Morning Marketeers!!

Happy Wednesday to ya! Well the way I see it, things could go very well or very badly. ;-)

We'll see this morning's numbers and plenty o' earnings will be comin' our way too.

Too bad my dentist hasn't gone public yet. With today's appointment his stock would be going up significantly. I head out before markets open and should be back for mid-morning action.

Looks like the dollar has stopped plummeting. Everybody's probably busy reading Teh Price of Loyalty (whicih I bought last night).

Strap in could be bumpy!

Julie

[izzie]

5. My retirement plan is paying around 1% now I need help

So much for those bad Clinton years.

[ozymandius]

6. Good morning Julie and all!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

I have enjoyed reading snippets and spoilers from The Price of Loyalty here at DU. I may buy the book for my Republican brother-in-law. Last time I checked, he would vote for Bush even if we had, on camera, the Beast raking loot from the Treasury into a swag bag.

What a day yesterday! Those numbers felt so familiar in the sense that what goes up must come down. Air cools, ya know.

I will be out most of the day as last-minute finishing touches are applied to the remaining commissioned pieces. On the job front, I spent all day narrating, editing and sweetening audio for a short documentary. It was a freebie - but also an audition for an audio production job. ANY audio production job.

You have my very sincere sympathies as one who has spent too much time in a dentist's chair. Best of luck to you Julie on the dentist trip!

[54anickel]

15. Heh heh, I've got a few "brother-out-laws" like that too.

[ozymandius]

7. Weekly Mortgage Applications Hit Year Low

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Americans filed more requests for mortgages to refinance or to buy homes last week as 30-year mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels since July 2003, a U.S. mortgage industry group said on Wednesday.

<cut>
Mortgage rates fell sharply last week in response to a decline in yields on longer-dated Treasuries after government data released on Friday showed poor U.S. job growth in December. The jobs report shook the market's confidence that the U.S. economy gained traction in the latter part of 2003.

The decline in mortgage rates rejuvenated loan demand, but is not likely to produce the record high set in 2003 in line with record sales in the housing market, the persistent bright spot in the U.S. economy, economists said.

Home sales slowed toward the end of 2003 from their earlier torrid levels, which economists said were unsustainable.

they use the word 'unsustainable'

[Frodo]

10. Is there a disconnect between your subject line & message?

Did rates fall to a new low for the year yet applications were DOWN? The first line of the Reuters text just says "applications were filed" it doesn't make a comparison.


Edit - OK, I read the link. I think your title is misleading.

[ozymandius]

12. I was about to post something about that misleading headline.

But decided not to when the 'lead' became apparent. It is a badly written article. Talk about burying your lead!

[Frodo]

16. Apology

I shouldn't have said "your" title.

[ozymandius]

8. Fed Plays Down Jobs Data

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Top Federal Reserve (news - web sites) officers said on Tuesday recent weak U.S. jobs data was no cause for alarm and inflation remained in check, backing a conviction that low U.S. interest rates are here for many months to come.


Economists said the Fed's focus on slack in the economy and lack of price pressure showed policy-makers were in no hurry to raise interest rates from a 45-year low of 1 percent, or to cut them again either, despite job market gloom.

<cut>
"This cannot go on indefinitely...it's just a matter of time before we begin to see employment start to pick up quite significantly, as it always has in the past," he said.

story

Looks like Greenspan got the re-(s)election memo.

[54anickel]

18. I read a similar story last night, really made my blood boil. I mean

it's like they are saying, we can climb out of this - to hell with the UE they'll just have to be patient. Yet they cut the UE extensions. Greenman almost seems to not believe the UE numbers, while putting full faith in all the numbers that are put together is some bizarre way that only the Fed can understand.

Such a disconnect to Main Street. We all understand and can feel the UE and underemployment, it's real. They look at the rest of the numbers and basically say, nope can't be doesn't fit the model. Well keep plugging along doing nothing until those UE numbers change their ways to conform.

Really starting to tick me off. :grr:

[ozymandius]

9. KB Toys Follows FAO Into Bankruptcy

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Toy retailer KB Toys Inc. on Wednesday filed for bankruptcy on the heels of a soft holiday shopping season wrought by harsh competition from bigger rivals, according to court papers.

KB, controlled by the private investment firm Bain Capital, is the second major toy chain to fall into bankruptcy in about the past month. FAO Inc. (FAOOQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) , parent of the iconic FAO Schwarz toy-store chain, in December filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for the second time in a year.

story

[ozymandius]

13. Have a wonderful day Marketeers!

:hi:

I am off to the world of work, work, work. I am extremely grateful for the wonderful contributions made here. This thread provides me with meaty reading at the end of the day.

all things good,

Ozy

[Frodo]

14. PPI numbers are in. (Balance of trade as well)

PPI up .3% (consensus up .2%) - modestly bearish,
Core PPI DOWN .1% (again?) with consensus UP .1%. - Somewhat bullish.


Economists care a tad more about the Core numbers (excluding oil/energy and food). SO this bodes well for the open.

Edit - Balance of trade figures also in. Slight improvement from 41.6B to 38B (expected 42B). This is the only pre-report clue on the export portion of GDP for later this month.

[trogdor]

17. Rising dollar means mixed to lower indicies.

My $0.02.

[54anickel]

19. Dollar Watch - much greater range of movement again today.

compared to yesterdays hugging of 85.5


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 85.80 Change +0.29 (+0.34%)

Settle 85.51 Settle Time 23:35

Open 85.58 Previous Close 85.51

High 86.04 Low 85.32


An article with a view from the EURO side, seems there's been some more outcry from the ECB

http://www.finance24.co.za/Finance/Markets/0,,1518-21_1469457,00.html

[UpInArms]

21. Hello All!!! I'm back from the

the highways and byways!

It is going to take me a bit to get back up to speed on everything - my email box runneth over and the snailmail folks are delivering a giant box of paper mail for me to plow through later today.

Oh well - the hazards of going away for a month - just trying to make my life fit me again will be a challenge - the house must be reclaimed and ...

the dollar looks to be soaring today - here is a piece of news that I found interesting

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/breaking_news/7701541.htm

According to the Kyodo News Agency, Japan's government sold about 5 trillion yen worth of U.S. Treasurys to the BOJ Tuesday to procure yen for intervention to support the dollar. The report said it was the first time the central bank has done so in 17 years and the volume is a record amount in the history of government sales to the central bank.

54anickel :yourock: and many thanks to all for such a great daily thread!

[54anickel]

22. Welcome back - Thank God you're back! Things got a little

eerie while you were away.

:hi:

[Maeve]

23. Hello! I must be going

Welcome back, UIA! 54anickel did a wonderful job of filling in (and we hope will stay!) but it's good to have you back! :grouphug:

I've got places to do and things to be today--catch you all later. Have fun at the Casino!

[Frodo]

20. Gold falling through support.

Next support level $415?

Rapid fall this morning and in the last 30 min.

~$424 to ~$419

[54anickel]

27. From what I've been following, 415 was the support level and expected

(been holding out for 415 - 418 myself) ;-)

Here's on article, there were more that I bookmarked but I'm on a different system.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/bonds/newswire/2004/01/13/rtr1208453.html

"I think a period of consolidation will be healthier for gold longer-term, with a test back to $415.00 sill leaving the up-trend intact," he added.

[54anickel]

24. U.S. Nov trade gap narrows unexpectedly to $38 bln

Can you here the gloating?

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?storyID=4125319&type=economicNews

WASHINGTON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in November to $38.0 billion, as civilian aircraft sales pushed exports to their highest level in three years, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Wednesday.
The monthly trade gap was well below the mid-point estimate of $42.0 billion from analysts surveyed before the report. Exports rose 2.9 percent to $90.6 billion, while imports retreated slightly to $128.6 billion from October's record high.

The rise in exports was led by a $1.2 billion month-to-month jump in civilian aircraft shipments. Exports of other capital goods, such as industrial and aircraft engines, also showed healthy gains.

U.S. exports have risen steadily over the past year, aided by a weaker dollar. The reversal has led to string of European policy-makers expressing concern that the euro's rapid rise against the dollar could snuff out an export-led recovery in Europe.

Despite the unexpected narrowing in November, cumulative figures show the trade deficit has already set a new annual record. The trade gap totaled $446.8 billion for the first 11 months of 2003, surpassing the record of $418.0 billion in 2002

[54anickel]

25. So, was it rumors of this or the rumblings by the ECB et al that upped

the buck? Then there's the G7 coming up as well. Must be a combination of everything. But hey, there goes Greenmans goal of 80 -85 for the dollar.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=4125174&pageNumber=0

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - The dollar extended its gains on the euro on Wednesday, pulling further off this week's record low as the market weighed European concerns about the greenback's drop against apparent U.S. nonchalance.

European Central Bank council member Christian Noyer was among the latest European policymakers to comment, saying authorities remained vigilant on the euro's level but there was no need to over-dramatise, although he did add intervention was always "something that can be used".

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan led the U.S. camp, saying on Tuesday the dollar's decline had yet to cause inflation or deter foreign capital inflow that is needed to fund the gaping U.S. current account deficit.

"Without the warning comments from Europe we would have tested $1.30 this week," said Mark Henry, currency strategist at GNI.

"With the G7 meeting starting to loom on the calendar as well, people are looking at the timing of that and suggesting we may be heading towards a situation where there may be some coordinated move to try to stabilise things a bit."

[jamesinca]

28. Let me see if I can figure it out

Good morning everybody. I think Americans are buying less because of their unemployed status. A drop in domestic sales as well as imported sales. Remember December was lackluster at the register and only 1k jobs created. A drop in the U.S. dollar makes it very cheap to buy $4bn worth of airplanes at this time along with other export items. These numbers don't have the full effect of the mad cow in them. I expect a change in the trade back to where it was unless something like the airplane industry comes through again for us. I was also seeing that the rest of the world, mostly Japan, was looking at some type of punishment for the U.S. for not dropping the steel tariffs. We did promise, but we have not done it yet. I believe that this will have some impact on things, here comes the pun, corrective action in the markets.

[Frodo]

26. At the open - Dow up ~40 Nasdaq up ~7 S&P up ~3

eom

[Coventina]

29. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hello everyone!

I have to make this quick because I'm running late.
Today's reading is CONTINUING with no changing lines. Here's a quote: "In business and political affairs, pay particular attention to the support of policies that have proved themselves useful. This is not the time to change methods for the sake of change. Instead, it is a time to make these methods work with new trends in thought. Success now comes through CONTINUING movement toward long-standing objectives - objectives that are harmonious with a well-ordered life."

Gotta run!
:hi:

[54anickel]

30. Wall St counting on jobs burst, Fed more patient

Lots of wishful thinking and cheerleading on the street.
Hate to admit and and hope I am wrong, but I'm with the Greenman on this one.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/bonds/newswire/2004/01/14/rtr1210778.html

snip>
Many Wall Street economists, who had forecast as many as 250,000 new jobs, gathered themselves up off the floor to dismiss the weak report as an aberration and confidently predicted big gains in the next month or two.

But Fed officials have warned that changes in the way the U.S. economy works -- especially a big acceleration in productivity growth -- mean consistently strong jobs gains could still be some time away.

That suggests official interest rates will be on hold for many months, probably for longer than financial markets expect.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in Germany on Tuesday that when productivity slows, jobs will follow. But he gave no indication of when that might be.

"Since we have never seen an event such as the productivity trends of the last several years, we don't know when this considerably above-average rate of productivity growth is going to ... fall back," he said.

When that happens, businesses will no longer be able to meet new orders with their existing work forces. "At that point, we'll begin to see, in my judgment, fairly marked increases in employment growth in the U.S.," Greenspan said.

BETTING ON NEXT MONTH

That is not a transition that occurs from one month to the next. Yet on Wall Street, analysts remain bullish.

Morgan Stanley was one of many firms pointing to other signs of an improving job market, such as falling unemployment insurance claims and upbeat surveys of hiring intentions. Economist David Greenlaw forecast a "catch-up" 250,000 gain in January payrolls.

snip>
She saw no quick turnaround. Mester said she hopes to see solid job gains of 150,000 to 200,000 a month "perhaps by the middle of 2004, for sure by the end of the year."

That is many months later than Wall Street expects. Financial markets predict the Fed will start raising interest rates in the third quarter, which is highly unlikely if jobs have only just started to recover.

[mrsteve]

31. 1:30 - Nasdaq falling, Dow up

Looks like a bit of profit taking on the Nasdaq gains yesterday. Dow is doing well, though.

Dow 10,497.40 +70.22 (+0.67%)
Nasdaq 2,099.49 +3.05 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,125.80 +4.58 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 3.998% -0.030

Good to see you back, UIA! :hi:

[mrsteve]

32. Ha! some Stock Market thread...

Seems that the first market numbers post was mine at 1:30 EST. LOL!

Although everyone has down their usual fine work in find background articles on the markets. And the dollar value info has become almost as important as the stock markets and the unemployment numbers, these days.

[54anickel]

33. The DU servers have not been "poster friendly" today. That and the

fact that Maeve, Ozy and Julie have all had to step out for a bit.

Sure am glad you came along. :hi:

[mrsteve]

34. 2:31 - movin' on up, to the top

Looks like the Dow is setting new highs, and the S&P and Nasdaq are approaching their highs for the day. Tomorrow's earnings reports must be expected to be doozies!

Dow 10,518.37 +91.19 (+0.87%)
Nasdaq 2,105.29 +8.85 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,128.17 +6.95 (+0.62%)
10-Yr Bond 3.993% -0.035

Sounds like I missed some annoyance with DU this morning. Well, like I said yesterday, we must all suffer a little for improvement.

And hardware/software upgrades are rarely painless - especially if you have to do them live (like Elad is doing right now).

[54anickel]

35. Absolutely No Pain, No Gain. I have the highest regards for Elad,

Skinner and the rest. DU is flying pretty darn good again now too.

[JNelson6563]

37. Hey Steve! UpInArms back too!

Hey everybody!!

Whew! I've had to run out in our blizzard several times today and have had terrible time getting into DU!

Looks like an absolutely stellar day!

3:25:

Dow 10,542.52 +115.34 (+1.11%)
Nasdaq 2,109.67 +13.23 (+0.63%)
S&P 500 1,130.15 +8.93 (+0.80%)
10-Yr Bond 3.986% -0.042

Hope everybody made a few pennies. :toast:

Good to see everyone!

Julie

[mrsteve]

40. Blizzard! Ha!

Just getting that snow we keep dumping into the fan here here in Chicago, huh? :evilgrin:

The weather radar seems to indicate the northern Lake Michigan snow machine is dumping on Michigan.

[KoKo]

36. This is an interesting article linked from another DU Forum. Folks here

might enjoy the read for speculation and comment. Calls for some Federal Reserve resignations and questions Govt. data reporting. An interesting angle on the "Housing Bubble," too.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php

[54anickel]

38. Ewww, what's this momentary 411 on gold? That's an interesting chart

Actually showing up as a low too. Hmmmm? Something fishy going on, or everyone out to lunch on that bid?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s

Last trade 421.15 Change -3.17 (-0.75%)

Open 424.32 Previous Close 424.32

High 424.5 Low 411.0

[Maeve]

39. So...looks like it's been an interesting day

Nasdaq stumbled, but recovered nicely mid-day, the Dow has been chugging right along...they heard Maeve was shopping, right? (Ha! fooled them; I was at a three-hour meeting, so there!) :silly:

With just minutes left in the day:
Dow 10,544.89 +117.71 (+1.13%)
Nasdaq 2,110.21 +13.77 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,130.74 +9.52 (+0.85%)
10-Yr Bond 3.986% -0.042

[Maeve]

41. Final numbers

Hope everyone got a piece of the pie, because it sure got piled higher today!
Dow 10,538.37 +111.19 (+1.07%)
Nasdaq 2,111.13 +14.69 (+0.70%)
S&P 500 1,130.52 +9.30 (+0.83%)
10-Yr Bond 3.986% -0.042

[Frodo]

42. Selling on the news?

Intel posted better than expected earnings (http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040114/tech_intel_earns_2.html) with .33/shr (consensus .23 to .28) but falls a percent or two in after market trading.


Other interesting news is the JPMorgan-Bank One merger and whether it will start a bidding war.