New Poll Shows Kerry in the Lead (Iowa)

[wyldwolf]

Statistically, anyway.

Des Moines, January 15, 2003 - We've just gotten some new numbers in from a Zogby Poll. It shows that John Kerry is now in the lead at 22 percent. Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt are tied at second place with 21 percent. And John Edwards is coming in at 17 percent. So if the poll holds, it would show that times are changing for the campaign. The Margin of error is +/- 4.5%

http://www.whotv.com/global/story.asp?s=1601723&ClientType=Printable

[cthrumatrix]

1. this thread poll as the drudge headline -- media bias should be

investigated.

The media (TV, Press and radio) have been slamming Dean in concert.

WHY...becuase he is a threat to the establishment.

WHy...becuase they want the easiest candidate for the king.

Why...beucase they can and nobody can stop them.

What does this mean...the media will pick the dem. winner...let's see might that be kerry, Gep?


This is BS in action.

[wyldwolf]

2. You should know better...

...it links to a legitimate new source.

By your reasoning, the drudge headline "Salon hires Sidney Blumenthal as consultant, columnist... " is biased as is "Ecstasy linked with long-term memory loss, study says... "

[maddezmom]

3. can't get the link to work

is it working for you?

[wyldwolf]

4. Like a charm

[cthrumatrix]

17. I guess "corporate media" endorsement of Kerry has played their hand

Because the corporate media has served us "so well"...

The media is picking the candidate they will continue the facade that we have choice.

[joeunderdog]

33. My favorite debate statement last week was by Kerry

He said tht he would contest the validity any Liebold-run vote count before the election. He asked other candidates to join him in this. Unfortunately, the issue didn't get any traction.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

34. Kerry on top of Diebold because he really cares about corruption

Damnit John's a true fighter for us.

[nightperson]

5. Another day begins with great news.

:donut: and (benevolent O8)) "front-runner status". And the bounce goes on...... :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :toast:

[necso]

6. As I have posted elsewhere...

"Besides the hot thing now may be ABDOC, Anybody But Dean Or Clark. I see nothing definite yet, but things are happening. Surprises may be in store."

This would not be to my liking, but it may be more of a horse race that anybody imagines.

[Poets4Clark]

7. woot!

there is a god!

[adadem]

8. I feel like

:bounce:

[stickdog]

9. The nomination in now Kerry's to lose! (nt)

[underpants]

14. I think who ever wins the Feb. 10th Va. Primary will get the nomination

I'm not saying this because I live in Va. but because after Iowa, and then NH, and then the Feb.3rd primaries the dust will have settled and whoever has to momentum going into Va. will win the nomination.

It may already be decided by that point so the Va. primary will be the crowning.

[mobuto]

19. Interesting thought

the last Virginia poll I'm aware of (the notoriously bad Mason-Dixon) queried 308 Democratic primary voters, has a margin of +/-6% and was done December 3-5.

It has:

Howard Dean 21
Joe Lieberman 13
Wesley Clark 11
Richard Gephardt 8
John Kerry 7
Al Sharpton 6
John Edwards 5

Source: PollingReport

Those numbers are very strange (Why is Gephardt so high? Why is Edwards so low?) and reflect more on the polling organization than they do on the candidates.

[underpants]

24. Primary timeline shows that Va/Md will be 11th & 12th primaries (2/10/04)

http://www.vademocrats.org/Press_Room/Topics/Primary_timetable.asp

1-19 Iowa
1-27 NH

2-3 Arizona Delaware So.Carolina Penn Missouri New Mexico possibly Oklahoma

2-8 Maine

2-10 Va. and Maryland (very close proximity to so if there is still a tight race they can cover a lot of ground in the same day and cheaply)

My point is that Feb. 3rd is really going to clear the field to 2 or maybe 3 (4 possibly) so by the time the 10th comes around it should be pretty much decided unless it is really close or someone hangs around because they have the money or won't give up (nothing wrong with that).

Thanks also, I think this would be a great GD 2004 discussion but alas not yet.

[mobuto]

26. SC is very interesting

Where I am at the moment.

It seems to be increasingly a showdown between Messrs. Clark and Edwards. Clark has other prospects, but if Edwards loses it looks like he's out of the race.

But we can't talk about this because we're in the wrong forum...

[underpants]

27. Sssssssssh

Oh I am sure SC is between them. We are geting Clark ads here in Va. the first political ads I have seen here for a long time.

[mobuto]

28. Howard Dean is actually

first in recent published SC polls, despite the fact that he hasn't campaigned here, and Sharpton is also within MoE. But, how can I put this, "other" polls indicate its narrowing down to Edwards and Clark. February 3 will be very interesting.

[isbister]

15. Re: The nomination in now Kerry's to lose!

Nobody's voted yet, its only a poll or two.

[mobuto]

18. How so?

I'm a big fan of John Kerry, but a one point lead in one poll in one state wouldn't seem to indicate that he has a convincing lead. In Iowa, however, he does seem to have the Mo.

[molly]

10. That's REALLY great news!

:thumbsup:

:toast:

[LincolnMcGrath]

11. Funny toon

[sendero]

12. In recent history....

... compare how many times a sitting Congressman has been elected president to how many times an ex governor has been, then tell me it is good news.

People who are part of the problem are not part of the solution.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. Thank You. I almost forgot Kerry is just a cockroach

but I'll vote for him anyway. He's the best of the best.

[mobuto]

22. Jack Kennedy?

Governors are historically the preferable candidates (its easier to transfer from one executive position to another), but that's not a rule and I think its shallow to assume that Members of Congress or even private citizens (Clark, Sharpton, Moseley-Braun) can't pass the learning curve.

[sendero]

23. It has less to do with....

... any learning curve (Hell, Bush* was almost elected) than the fact that you've been observed in a Federal context and have a record.

I think it is insane to discount the anti-insider feeling this year, it is stronger than ever and it is *always* a big factor (Carter, Clinton).

[mobuto]

25. Well there's perception

and there are two very different kinds of leadership style at issue: one is effective in a parliamantery context and the other is effective in an executive. And voters are usually quick to pick up on the difference. If you haven't made votes of which you are ashamed, then I don't think the voting record necessarily means a whole lot (after all, Governors sign bills, and they can come back to haunt them just as easily).

I'm not going to argue that the anti-insider feeling doesn't exist, but I'm afraid I don't really understand its dimensions. To some extent, it seems to have been an immediate reaction to the Iraq war, and if that's the case, then I think its gradually winding down.

[NNN0LHI]

35. When was the last time a Chickenhawk incumbent president...

...has ran against a war hero during a time of war and won?

Don

[nightperson]

38. Thank you.

It is amazing that these obvious things have to be restated again and again :nopity: :spank: :wow: :dunce: :argh: :crazy: :wtf: .

[isbister]

13. Zogby has the story too

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=780

[TomNickell]

16. Really a 4-way tie.....

Given the difficuties in projecting the results of caucuses, the 'winner' could be any of the top 4.

BUT, the real story is that -nobody- is anywhere near 50%. And that there is likely to be a real actual election campaign in the remaining states.

[bushisanidiot]

21. Dean Supporter Here. I love that this is (supposedly) a 4 way race!

i don't wanna give the pukes too much notice on who to aim their attack ads at. i'd be happy if we were tied going into March, just as long as the candidates focus on Bush and not slamming eachother.

[BJ]

29. WHO has a long history of supporting conservatives.

WHO Television's sister radio station is the local outlet for Rush Limbaugh, among others.

BTW, Kerry is the DLC's official candidate with the endorsement of Christy Vilsack. Gov. Vilsack and Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller are paid up DLC members.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

32. Don't forget Iowa Agricultural Sec'y Patty Judge

that was a good one- and helps counter Dean's lie that Kerry voted against Iowa farmers' interests.

[demdave]

30. It is a three dog race and should be exciting

Exactly how are caucuses reported? Is there a running tally? Do they just come out at once with a decision? How are the numbers tallied and reported? Thanks

[MaineDem]

31. Now we're going to see a race!

This is great news. Something we've been working hard to attain!

[robbedvoter]

36. Oh, no! What will Gore do now? How dares Kerry? Sit down, shut up boy!

The coronation already happened...This is lack of respect for the team Gore! democracy is a team sport and the coach said HD was the captain. You all others are benched!

[Teaser]

37. Guys, this is the product of one day's bad samples...

and two days normal samples. I almost guarantee it.

The fact that Kerry didn't jump up by more than he did today indicates to me that the sampling status is normal the other two days. Monday's sample was an outlier.

This won't last.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

39. Kerry's direction is up.

we like it.

[ronnykmarshall]

40. Cudos for Kerry

I'm with Clark and my parents are leaning towards Kerry. Looks like we have a race on our hands.

[incontrovertible]

41. Dean's History

From steamrolling front-runner to tied for second, four days out, with Edwards screaming up behind after a single newspaper endorsement? The bloom is OFF the rose. Sure, it's all GOTV, but at this point, it's also about half Stop Dean - Kerry and Gephardt are splitting this vote, and damnhowdy, there appears to be a lot of them. I wouldn't be surprised if they both took a bite out of Edwards' percentage by Tuesday.

I'll wager a $50 donation to DU that Dean comes in third. Any takers? I'll donate on behalf of the winner if they'll do the same.

Yeah, I know, I'm not a donor - I suck. I'm less broke than usual because my wife has been less sick than usual.

[ScholarSeeker]

42. Wow! Go Kerry!

This is really getting to be a horse race!