STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 16 January (#1)

[ozymandius]

Friday January 16, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 374
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 35 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 87 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 299
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 783
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 15, 2004

Dow... 10,553.85 +15.48 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq... 2,109.08 -2.05 (-0.10%)
S&P 500... 1,132.05 +1.53 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.97% -0.02 (-0.38%)
Gold future... 408.70 -13.30 (-3.15%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ClintonTyree]

1. Seems as if............

the Gold bugs have shifted positions as of late. Temporary lull, or honest shift out of precious metals?

[ozymandius]

2. This is a testing period.

Markets are testing the strength of the dollar, varying the degree to which values can be bent. Gold will naturaly react to these values in a kind of see-saw effect. Gold goes up; dollar goes down - and vice versa.

At the center of it all is the BOJ. There is a conference scheduled very soon in which all interested Japanese government parties will discuss their dollar-floating strategy. They stepped back from the playing field for about two days. I reckon this to taking one's hands off the bicycle handlebars "to see what happens" for a moment.

[54anickel]

4. I think the dollar went up with the return of UIA ;-)

[54anickel]

15. Yes Ozy, hands off the handle bars! But that's where it gets confusing &

why I am glad UIA is back.

Tuesday seemed to be soooo stable, dollar barely moved from 85.5 and Yen was fairly steady at 106.2. Everything I've read seemed to say under 107 was OK with BoJ, but remember reading that dollar had much further to go - 80 preferable 85 tops. So who's telling the truth and who's pushing what in which direction?

[54anickel]

3. Interesting, from the charts they BOTH went up overnight.

[ozymandius]

5. Question about the BOJ

It just seems to me that the BOJ is making itself a fat, slow moving target because of its precarious paranoia over a rising yen's effect on the Japan's exports.

I contend that the whole financial world knows where the dollar is headed (down) and that arrival is just a matter of time. What do you think about this idea: for their insurance against sudden, shocking loss - many nation's central banks and currency traders are slowly loading up the BOJ with soon-to-be unwanted dollars?

Could this be a metaphorical bunch of little guys teaming up on one big guy?

[aneerkoinos]

8. BoJ

My perception also. Funny to see that even while dollar is rocketing against gold/euro (that still go hand in hand), BoJ and Yen continue to stay under extremely heavy attack, peaking under 106 several times.

One aspect of the attack must be that the little hyenas and sharks smell blood and know that yen can go only upwards and buy yens with surplus dollars, everybody just love to take a bite at a bleeding big fat central bank.

[54anickel]

12. It's very possible

There is a lot of movement going on with foreign and gold reserves in many of the central banks. I was just digging thru my articles to find more info. I think it has become a team effort to prop the dollar to buy time. BoJ has been quite open on their intervention, as seen from UIA's post yesterday (even the US got involved per that article). So I think BoJ has become the "front man".

Let me do a bit more digging - I have never been one for great organization of my bookmarks. ;-)

Meanwhile, here's one that was pretty recent. I'd like to know the breakdown of those foreign reserves, some is Euros, but what else? They lead you to assume it's all $US...

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nb20040110a1.htm

Foreign-exchange reserves at all-time high

The reserves grew by $203.80 billion from a year earlier, rising for a fifth consecutive year. Compared with the previous month, the reserves were up $28.96 billion, marking an all-time high for a fourth straight month.

Japan remained the largest holder of foreign reserves of any country or territory for the 49th straight month, the ministry said, citing the latest comparable data.

The official said the strengthening of the euro against the dollar also pushed up the value of Japan's euro-denominated assets in dollar terms.

The previous record high for Japan's foreign-exchange reserves stood at $644.57 billion, recorded at the end of November.

The foreign-exchange reserves consist of securities and deposits denominated in foreign currencies plus International Monetary Fund reserve positions, IMF special drawing rights and gold.

[54anickel]

20. Still digging, but came across this one. Intervention - not something we

talk about....This is interesting. Here's a bunch of snippets, but read the entire article when you get a chance.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/14/rtr1210632.html

NEW YORK, Jan 13 (Reuters) - The dollar's decline is proving, somewhat bizarrely, to be a boon for Treasuries as central bank intervention funds find a home in the bosom of U.S. debt markets.

On Thursday the Federal Reserve is expected to report that its holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency debt for foreign central banks hit a record high this week.

snip>
"The unprecedented scale of the intervention has grossly distorted traditional correlations between the dollar, bond yields and equities," argues Alan Ruskin, chief economist at 4CAST. He even equates the trend as equal, in all but name, with the great Plaza and Louvre currency accords of the 1980s.

This flood of money, analysts suggest, is a major reason why market interest rates have stayed so subdued in recent months despite a startling acceleration in economic growth.

snip>
But while capital flows data shows foreign private investors have indeed shied away, their governments are more concerned with preventing an export-damaging rise in their currencies.

Just last year foreign central bank holdings of Treasuries ballooned by $172 billion to a record $862 billion -- meaning they funded almost half of the United States's $375 billion budget deficit last year.

snip>
IT'S NOT SOMETHING WE TALK ABOUT

While the importance of foreign central banks in funding the United States's twin deficits is abundantly clear, it is rarely mentioned by anyone in power.

Treasury Secretary John Snow last week claimed the budget deficit was eminently manageable, while only a day ago Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan saw no problem in funding the current account shortfall.

Neither mentioned the contribution of foreign governments.

The White House stance is understandable since the flow of foreign money is making it easier to argue that budget deficits do not push up interest rates, and so justify past tax cuts.

But the Fed also has reason to be thankful.

The central bank caused a stir in markets last year by suggesting that, if deflation became a real danger, it might respond by buying long-term Treasuries directly and driving yields lower.

In the end, officials decided the proposal had too many dangers of its own and it fell from favor. But, the Fed seems to have no problem with foreign governments buying Treasuries.

"One of the great ironies of the latest events, is that for all the debate about the implications of the Fed buying Treasuries to suppress bond yields, it is foreign central banks, notably the BOJ, that is doing the job for them," said 4CAST's Ruskin.

NOTES: So you see, while Greenspan publicly cries foul against market intervention and continues to demand China float their currency (bad idea at this point IMHO) the Fed is not only counting on it but relying on it.

[54anickel]

38. OK Ozy and all, here's what I've got - Lots of players in the intervention

game.

Russia
http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=41436
MOSCOW - Russia’s gold and foreign currency reserves amounted to $65.4bn as of November 14, 2003, against $64.7bn a week earlier, the Central Bank reported Thursday. This is an all time record. The previous record of $64.9bn was set on June 20, 2003, and it was repeated on July 4 and October 31.

snip>
However, this year, unlike last year, Central Bank officials have not said a word about the Central Bank’s massive interventions on the foreign exchange market. The market situation is such that domestic demand for dollars is currently low and unlikely to rise any time soon, while the supply of dollars is high due to high oil prices. Under the circumstances, the Central Bank is doing its best to protect the dollar.

Indeed, the Central Bank has not allowed the dollar to fall below 29.7950 RUR/USD over the past two weeks. Sergey Ignatyev, Chairman of the Central Bank, has said recently that the Bank would try to prevent the ruble’s effective exchange rate from rising by more than 6 percent. From Monday to Thursday, the Central Bank had to buy foreign currency from banks. According to different estimates, the Central Bank has purchased about $300m to $400m this week on the open market alone. Perhaps, the bank also purchased dollars directly from exporters.


Asia - SKorea, Thailand
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073281076842

snip>
South Korea has now restricted the dollar amount overseas investors can sell to domestic players via the non-deliverable forwards market. The move is designed to head off the sort of speculative activity that led to the currency crises of 1997 and 1998 by curbing the bets foreigners can place on currency direction.

The won weakened on the news but stayed near recent highs due to strong investor interest in the region.

According to UBS, foreigners poured more than $2.8bn into the region in the first full trading week of 2004 - a record weekly flow and far higher than the average $520m the bank saw each week in 2003.

Overseas investors are buying Asian equities to take advantage of the region's relative cheapness and its exposure to a recovering global economy.

But Korea intervened heavily last year to stem currency strength and - judging by yesterday's announcement - it intends to continue fighting.

It is not alone. Japan spent Y20,000bn on intervention last year and is planning to raise the ceiling sharply on the amount it can spend this year. Thailand last year announced similar measures to Korea's, and this week warned it would intervene if the baht continued to strengthen.


Latin America
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/040114/15/3h9fy.html

snip>
But whereas Asian central banks have long been intervening in currency markets - typically buying U.S. fixed-income securities - to keep the falling value of the dollar from eating into exports, Latin American policy makers are for the most part just starting to get into the game.

"It's starting to look a little bit Asian," said Guillermo Estebanez, currency strategist at Bank of America in San Francisco. "It's not to say that investments aren't going to continue to flow to (Latin America), but it's probably going to reflect more in gains in equity or debt markets than in currency markets."


Brazil
http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2004/01/14/rtr1210513.html

SAO PAULO, Brazil, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Brazil's financial markets drifted lower on Wednesday for the second day in a row as investors locked in gains following a heady surge kicking off the new year and waited for the central bank to buy dollars.

The country's currency, the real <BRBY>, backtracked 0.29 percent to 2.815 per dollar in cautious trade after the Central Bank said it would intervene and buy greenbacks later in the session for the fifth day running.


Singapore
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/story/0,4567,105203,00.html

SINGAPORE's official foreign reserves last year surged 17 per cent to US$96.3 billion - double the 8.5 per cent growth in 2002 - as the Monetary Authority of Singapore tried to keep the currency 'neutral'.

snip>
Adds Simon Flint, Bank of America strategist for Asia: 'It's a fair interpretation to say that the central has been intervening from time to time, buying foreign currencies, smoothing appreciation.'

But unlike in other Asian countries, the intervention has not come at a cost, because Singapore's domestic interest rates are lower than those associated with the US dollar.

Mr Flint notes that the cost of intervention for other Asian central banks resulted from the difference between their higher domestic rates and holding lower-interest US Government bonds.

'This argument does not apply to Singapore, where domestic interest rates are lower than the US$ Sibor rate, reflecting the confidence in the S$ and hence the discount it enjoys in the market,' the MAS spokesman said. Sibor refers to the Singapore interbank offered rate.

Intervention for Singapore has been 'free', according to Mr Flint


Only one not playing, or at least claiming not is ECB

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/13/rtr1208477.html

LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - European central bankers face tough choices on how to deal with the relentless rise of their currency and its impact on the euro zone economy, but the image of the euro itself may be a worry too.

Since its launch in 1999, the euro has established itself as the world's second largest currency but the dollar still dominates international finance.

The euro's image suffered in 2000 when it dived to record lows and had to be rescued by central bank intervention.

Now the tide has turned analysts believe the European Central Bank will examine any potential responses to its breakneck rise, including intervention in foreign exchange markets, for their effect not only on the economy but also on the currency's credibility and international standing.

snip>
"If the ECB has ambitions for the euro to pose a serious alternative to the dollar as a global reserve currency, they would want to keep it strong and stable," UBS wrote in a recent research note.

"And, perhaps more importantly, (they must) not be seen by the market as manipulating currency values."

snip>
Few analysts expect the ECB to try forcing down the currency just yet by stepping into the market as it is likely to get little help from peers such as the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The chief argument is that intervention could push up euro zone inflation. This would be difficult for the ECB to accept when euro zone inflation is running just above target.

But the euro's credibility might be another argument against intervention.

[CaptainClark23]

32. I tihink the goldbugs are dug in

and tightly. The selling we're seeing is the margin players, people trying to turn around profit. Goldbugs (to my mind) are longterm players and some I've spoken to are welcoming this dip as an opportunity to pick up some deals.

I think the drop is for the reasons Ozy suggests, and is also not surprising given the length of the climb gold has had. corrections are inevitable and expected.

Psychologically, we're also dealing with weak hearts who view gold with suspicion. many analysts grew up in a period where gold was slumming and have never seen a true gold bull on the rampage. And so the first indication of slippage, they all bail.

[Maeve]

35. And if you look at gold in the long run

Like the chart at the bottom of the Goldberg article on Financial Sense that ozy referenced, it doesn't appear to be a serious drop--normal correction, as you say.

[54anickel]

41. Oh no! Did I miss out on the sale? Why is that metal going UP with

the dollar? I was holding out for a bit more of the drop with the anticipation of the expected temporary rise in the buck. See, I need to be less greedy - always searching for the best bargain in town not realizing the all the money wasted on the gas. :-(

[ozymandius]

6. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

"Stock Indices Go Parabolic! When Tools Do Not Work"

The recent behavior of the stock market averages has gone from a robust bull correction within a secular bear market to a mania. All three averages have gone from a linear uptrend to an accelerated advance. This has made many technical analysts with a longer-term viewpoint look like playoff-eliminated Green Bay Packers coach Mike Sherman. It’s difficult for technical analysts when the tools of the trade are not working. There are some technical tools that are working, though.

This has been a market where Investor’s Business Daily's (IBD), technical methods have worked very well. Buying stocks on “breakouts” to 52 week highs has been a successful game. Since October 2002, that general strategy would have provided better performance than a stack of analyst’s recommendations, or technical macro-market predictions regardless of how sound they will be in the long term. This rally has been about the stock chart base with the cup-with-handle pattern and the “breakout.” Buy high off a good base and sell higher! Momentum investing. It’s a simple and so far successful formula for today’s market.

<cut>

So what happened? Are these technical tools mumbo-jumbo to be put away like so many old ouija boards? Why did they fail time after time over the last 16 months? I think it is because all of these technical tools are those used during secondary corrections within a primary bear market. What has been confirmed with the failure of the NASDAQ fan pattern is that we are in something different than a secondary correction. This is hard to believe given the absurd fundamentals, valuations, miniscule dividends (even after increases), and corporate governance issues. But it can be very difficult and expensive to fight the tape, especially without any technical basis to back a bearish strategy. At this moment, the technical basis for a bearish case appears to be gone.

<cut>

Indices Go Parabolic - Timing the Drop

All three major indices have gone from a nice leisurely uptrend into a parabolic move as the charts below illustrate. There must have been some new rosy economic conditions discovered that warrant buying this buying after such an impressive advance. Either that or we are now in greed-driven panic buying mania.

something is afoot

[ozymandius]

7. The Euro's Losses Snowball

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro's losses snowballed on Friday, boosting the yen and prompting the Japanese currency to hit three-year highs against the dollar before being turned back by suspected Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervention.

European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist Otmar Issing was the latest official to say the central bank was not indifferent to the euro's strength, adding to pressure on the currency to fall.

"It is a euro story now," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange research at Credit Agricole Indosuez in London.

story

[Maeve]

9. "It's a euro story now" is key

I suspect a major point in the dollar story has been the wait for normal economic considerations to force Europe to act--a passive/aggressive form of pressure in lieu of diplomacy and monetary talks.

:donut::donut::donut:

[ozymandius]

11. Good morning!

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Is it any wonder why there have been so many high-level visits to Japan lately?

[ozymandius]

10. not attempting to steal UIA's thunder - it's the BOJ *again*!

Dollar Dives to 3-Year Lows Vs Yen

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar slumped to a three-year low against the yen on Friday and traders said Japanese authorities intervened to try to contain the yen's export-crimping rise.

After drifting sideways for hours, the dollar suddenly spiked down by a quarter yen to around 105.70 yen its lowest since September 2000, as yen demand in the euro/yen market spilled over and triggered stop-loss sales of dollars for yen.

Traders said the dollar/yen selloff was a by-product of a broad-based pullback in the previously bullish euro, given that it came at the same time as the dollar was testing two-week highs around $1.2525 to the single currency, shying away from record lows around $1.29 set earlier in the week.

"Euro/yen has been weak all week, and it ended up causing stop-loss trades in dollar/yen," said a dealer at a Japanese bank.

story

[UpInArms]

23. daily dollar watch

(and you guys rock!)

I guess the trip lag thing set in and here I am ... late to the party.

starting with the numbers

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.17 Change +0.61 (+0.70%)

and then with some related articles

http://onenews.nzoom.com/onenews_detail/0,1227,248944-1-453,00.html

US draw drops oil prices

In London, Brent crude for March delivery shed $US1.23 cents, or 4%, at $US29.30, following New York's slide.

The big action was in US heating oil futures, which closed down 3.9%, or 3.75 cents lower, at US92.99 cents per gallon, and setting a record trading volume in the after-hours market with 5,718 contracts electronically traded after the regular session close.

Although the US Energy Information Agency on Wednesday said that distillate stocks, including heating oil, rose by 2.8 million barrels last week, bucking expectations that extreme cold in the US Northeast would have made a large dent in inventories, analysts said the shortage was yet to come.

<snip>

This is partly due to the slump in the value of the dollar on currency markets. Opec ministers have said the sliding dollar, the currency used in oil trading, means that producers need higher prices to protect their purchasing power.

Analysts also say speculative investment funds have pumped their money into oil and other commodities. Momentum has also come from booming demand in China.

The Opec cartel, which will meet in Algiers on February 10, will most likely decide to leave output unchanged, he said.

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4118269

OPEC Calls for Halt to Oil Price Surge

LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC's president on Tuesday appealed for high-flying oil markets to stabilize as signals grew that sustained price strength will make it hard for the cartel to enact an expected supply cut next month.

U.S. crude has blazed to 10-month highs, topping $35 a barrel for the first time since the Iraq war, on fears that freezing U.S weather will strain crude oil stocks already at their lowest level since 1975.

"We are calling on all parties involved in the oil markets to take an initiative to keep prices stable in the position that represents producers and consumers," said OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro, Indonesia's oil minister.

Prices have leaped $8 a barrel, or 30 percent, since OPEC's September decision to cut production by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) or 3.5 percent from November 1.

OPEC ministers said last month that they expected to cut supply again at a February 10 meeting, fearing a surplus in the second quarter as demand declines after the northern winter.

...more...

and now a few (jumbled as they are) thoughts...

with the yen refusing to "lose" value as the BOJ has attempted to intervene in its rise and the dollar simultaneously gaining and gold stabilizing and gaining from yesterday's profit taking, there seems to be much more that we need to look at. There are some other aspects that must be discovered - because any investigator first must ask the most important question: Who profits?

Well, we know that the average US citizen has had most of his/her income disrupted by the current admin's policies (ie; lost jobs, low interest income on savings etc) so we need to look deeper into the financial markets and see where the money is flowing.

I will go and see what I can dig up and let you know what I find.

Things get curiouser and curiouser.

[UpInArms]

31. Fed Governor Broaddus' remarks in Virginia

http://www.quicken.com/investments/news_center/story/?story=NewsStory/dowJones/20040116/ON200401160931000478.var&column=P0DEC

"A gradual decline in the dollar is part of the process" of adjusting for trade deficits, Broaddus said, as part of a general observation on the currency. He was speaking after an address on the economy in Richmond.

He said the U.S. trade deficit "is reflective of a larger imbalance in the world economy that must somehow be contained."

[54anickel]

33. Hey UIA, see post 20 Shrubs re-selection seems to be coming into play n/t

[aneerkoinos]

50. Oilbuck

Interesting. Looking at Kitco, light sweet crude is back to over $35 (probably blaming weather), even though dollar has jumped to 88.05. So will oil go to $40 if and when dollars resumes its downward trend?

Methinks everything will be very very nervous until OPEC meet Feb. 10. Everything but stocks, they will stay happy no matter what... :D

[JNelson6563]

13. Top o' the mornin' Marketeers!

Well well well, quite a mixed picture this morning eh? Well I think it's a BUY! BUY! BUY!! kinda day. I can sense the lemmings chomping at the bit!

Me, I'm just reveling in gold's drop so I can scoop up a couple of slabs for a bargain. :-)

Have caught little blather but love the articles and insights ya'll have posted. Been so terribly busy building up the troops for the revolution here in my corner of the world it's nice to breeze in here, read your posts and be up to speed.

Now we've got the dual expert team on currency added to our happy little band who could want for more? (Ok, ok, I admit I wish Rad could still play with us).

Strapping in for who-knows-what??

To a few profits for us all this day! :tost:

Julie

[ozymandius]

14. Egads! I'm running late.

The day is peppered with job-related appointments and phone calls. So I will not visit back here until this evening.

Thank you all for providing real-time riveting commentary! Coventina's I Ching reading yesterday was one of the most memorable is quite some time. It is worth reading for some healthy introspection.

I wish you all a wonderful day at the Casino!

Ozy

[Maeve]

16. Reports due out today

8:30 November business inventories expected to drop from .4% to .2-.3%

9:15 December Industrial Production (expected to drop from .9% to .3-5%)
.....Capacity Utilization (expected to stay fairly steady around 75.7%)

9:45 Michigan Sentiment(prelim for Jan) expected to rise from 92.6 to 94-95

Not a lot of weigh to these reports, altho radically different numbers than expected might cause a blip on the Street

[jimbot]

17. Business Inventories Rise 0.3 Percent

Inventories at the nation's manufacturers, retailers and wholesalers rose 0.3 percent in November after a 0.4 percent increase the previous month, the Commerce Department (news - web sites) said.


Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2 percent gain.

Link: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20040116/bs_nm/economy_inventories_dc

[Frodo]

18. Moderately bullish

And the pre-market movement is somewhat positive...


But the big numbers for the day will be out in five minutes (35 for the sentiment figures).

[Coventina]

19. The "I Ching" on today's market

Happy Friday everyone!

Today's reading is DEVELOPING changing to CONTEMPLATING. The changing line from DEVELOPING reads: "If you provoke a conflict or make a bold and forceful advance, you will place yourself and those close to you in danger. This results in misfortune. You would be much wiser to allow things to develop naturally and, instead, secure what you have."


HMMMMM----The first thing I heard on awaking this morning was the news about the first Japanese troops to leave Japanese soil since WWII......I wonder if this reading is a response of my subconscious mind to that news.

Here is a quote from CONTEMPLATING for us to consider: "By Contemplating the present situation and taking note of what immediately preceded it, you should be able to determine what will follow. The individual who can objectively contemplate in this way masters his world. He becomes a part of the cosmic law, reacting instinctively and appropriately."

I think this is good advice for us marketeers!
Take care everyone! See you Monday....or are the markets closed Monday for the holiday?

[Maeve]

21. 9:41 and beginning up

Dow 10,586.22 +32.37 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,126.72 +17.64 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,136.37 +4.32 (+0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 3.940% -0.031

[JNelson6563]

22. I've missed all the action

on the phone all morning with Party business. Busy times here in Michigan!

Anyhoo, looks like quite a day on the Sreet, eh?

9:54 and we are here:

Dow 10,584.88 +31.03 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,128.32 +19.24 (+0.91%)
S&P 500 1,137.63 +5.58 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 3.940% -0.031


Will try to get in from time to time today but man it's busy work overthrowing the government! The pay's not too good but I do it for the thrill! :-)

Julie

[Maeve]

24. The action is just starting--10:00

And all the love is going out of the Dow!
Dow 10,562.81 +8.96 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,123.05 +13.97 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,135.05 +3.00 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 3.949% -0.022

[Teaser]

25. Why?

Consumer confidence was better than expectations. I wonder what's going on.

[UpInArms]

26. here's the Michigan Sentiment link

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/16/news/economy/michigan/?cnn=yes

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for January jumped to 103.2 from 92.6 in December, according to market sources quoted by Reuters. Economists, on average, expected a reading of 94, according to Briefing.com.

and the market is going back up

Dow 10,565.33 +11.48 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,122.06 +12.98 (+0.62%)
S&P 500 1,134.85 +2.80 (+0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 3.942% -0.029

[Teaser]

27. That explains the post dip jump...

but what about that precipitous dip itself. That was an "event dip", the kind you see when something bad just happened, or bad news was released.

[Maeve]

42. One other note on the Michigan survey

It's a survey of 500 phone calls.

It's a poll; take it for what it's worth.

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicReleases/mich.htm

[Maeve]

28. Truth is, behavior and "confidence" aren't always linked

And the Michigan isn't the most predictive of measures. Do you really believe consumers are more confident than they've been since November 2000? Neither does Wall Street.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/16/news/economy/michigan/index.htm
In any event, consumers don't always spend the way they feel. Confidence plunged after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, for example, but consumers still managed to make their way to auto dealers and buy cars at zero-percent financing.

[Maeve]

29. 10:30 and the ball is bouncing

Almost afraid to say which way, cuz it keeps on changing!

Dow 10,575.81 +21.96 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,124.74 +15.66 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 1,136.29 +4.24 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 3.951% -0.020
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[Maeve]

37. 11:01 and there it goes again

Dow 10,553.70 -0.15 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,122.40 +13.32 (+0.63%)
S&P 500 1,134.83 +2.78 (+0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 3.976% +0.005

[54anickel]

30. Here's an interesting bit I missed on Monday, Airbus looking to get some

of its facilities out of the Eurozone, thinking about the US. Then the article goes on about the rising Euro and ECB and intervention yes/no, etc.

http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=2400434

Dollar Slump May Force Airbus Out of Eurozone

The euro hit a new all-time high against the dollar today but then slipped after statements by France’s prime minister and the head of the European Central Bank appeared to signal growing official concern.

At one point it stood at US dollar 1.2898.

Airbus, the world’s leading manufacturer of airliners, is so concerned at the dollar’s slump against the euro that it is considering moving some production out of the eurozone.

“The dollar has depreciated by about 30% in a year, which potentially costs us about three billion euro (£2.08 billion),” said joint chief executive Philippe Camus.

Its main production plant is at Toulouse in France. Airbus’s British partner, BAE Systems is not in the eurozone.

Camus also said company would be prepared to construct aircraft in the United States as it seeks to land Pentagon contracts to supply refuelling jets.


more, but that's it on Airbus, the rest is ECB.....

[UpInArms]

34. and if the ECB cuts interest rates

(an option to contain the rising euro) there are those that are hedging their bets

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=PWN03JJUPPSWACRBAELCFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=4140091&pageNumber=1

Markets were focused on the next batch of U.S. data with the University of Michigan consumer confidence index, due at 9:45 a.m. EST and U.S. industrial production for December at 9:15 a.m. EST.

Government bond yields fell sharply as speculation grew that the strength of the euro would push the ECB to cut interest rates.

"Speculation about an ECB rate cut has triggered massive buying at the short ends from hedge funds," said one euro debt trader in London. "We've also had central bankers talking about the euro this week so this is also having an impact."

[UpInArms]

36. more regarding ECB intervention

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073281075805

Lorenzo Codogno of Bank of America believes that the respite bought by Mr Trichet's words may be brief.

"I think it is a temporary situation: the underlying position has not changed," he says. "In the run-up to the Group of Seven meeting next month, there could well be another spike up."

As Ken Rogoff, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, put it this week, a euro at $1.40 "can be easily imagined", and $1.50 or even $1.60 is not impossible.

Although rhetoric will again be the first line of defence, if that line is breached the next step would probably be for the ECB to put its money where its mouth is, and back its words with intervention in the currency markets.

<snip>

If intervention is also a failure, a cut in interest rates would be the ECB's last resort. Given that its last staff projections, released in December, were based on a euro at $1.17, two or three months above $1.30 would probably result in substantial changes to the bank's forecasts.

But it will probably take concrete signs that the currency's strength is seriously jeopardising the eurozone's recovery for it to cut again.

"We would need to see business confidence really taking a lot of damage, and there are not really signs of that yet," says David Walton of Goldman Sachs.

In an echo of the 1987 Louvre Accord that tried to put a brake on an earlier steep decline in the dollar, a eurozone rate cut could be the price for securing US help in the currency markets.

...more

[aneerkoinos]

40. ECB and BoJ

Could it be that ECB has been buying yen with euros on massive scale? Europe has not happy about Japan interventions to inflate their own currencies, which gives them competitive advantage over Euro. On the other hand, yen can go only up and BoJ can only slow the trend with its interventions (like now), so buying yen with euros is a win-win for ECB, balancing euro against dollar and making profit from yen - if ECB can beat BoJ? Could this be the final pissing contest between ECB and BoJ?

[rodbarnett]

39. FOREX-Dollar recovers, buoyed by strong data

Reuters, 01.16.04, 10:15 AM ET

By Gertrude Chavez

NEW YORK, Jan 16 (Reuters) - The dollar rose steeply against most major currencies on Friday, boosted by robust economic data that seemed to confirm a more vigorous U.S. recovery.

http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2004/01/16/rtr1214551.html

[Maeve]

43. 12:48 and where's the market THIS time?

While the Nasdaq is remaining relatively calm, it's a "got dramamine?" day for the Dow:
Dow 10,569.40 +15.55 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,128.80 +19.72 (+0.94%)
S&P 500 1,136.54 +4.49 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.016% +0.045

[mrsteve]

44. 1:45 - Nasdaq roaring along

Looks like the consumer confidence numbers were good for the Nasdaq. The Dow and S&P are up and down for the day, but a bit above the red.

Dow 10,562.74 +8.89 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,131.52 +22.44 (+1.06%)
S&P 500 1,137.13 +5.08 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.014% +0.043

[Frodo]

45. Did the Gold market close early today?

Seems to have been completely flat well before the normal daily close.

[54anickel]

46. Always does this time of day. NY Close

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

It's the way they cycle the 24 hour spot...starts Sunday 1:00am
Believe that's it for the week - set to open in 90 hours 14 minutes.

[Frodo]

48. Take a look at it again.

There's no active trading from 1:30pm ET to about 3:15 every day. So the chart "flatlines" during that time.

Today it went completely flat (at least it loks that way to me) around 12:30.

[54anickel]

49. Right, but at the beginning of the week they stagger. I've seen it often

enough, I can't explain it, never really bothered to think about it. The first 3 days of the week it's easy to see the stagger. I'm sure the 24 hour loops with close time in between explains it somehow.

[Frodo]

51. "COMEX gold ends short pre-holiday session lower"

Found it. FYI

COMEX gold fell to a one-month low in a choppy abbreviated session Friday, extending a shakeout as the dollar recovery against the euro accelerated and the appeal of safe-havens dimmed.

[54anickel]

52. Thank you for clarifying and digging up the answer.

[Maeve]

47. 2:34 update

Nasdaq has had a pretty steady climb, but oh! that Dow! Up and down and up and down and erp and ....

Dow 10,576.51 +22.66 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,137.11 +28.03 (+1.33%)
S&P 500 1,138.78 +6.73 (+0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 4.014% +0.043

[Maeve]

53. Final numbers

Hard fought, but a nice boost across the board:
Dow 10,600.51 +46.66 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,140.46 +31.38 (+1.49%)
S&P 500 1,139.82 +7.77 (+0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.014% +0.043