Another Drop in polls for Bush

[Timefortruth]

.

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Jan. 14-15, 2004. N=1,003 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection, how likely are you to vote for him: very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?"
1/14-15/04
.

Very Likely
Some what likely
Unlikely Very
Unlikely
Not Sure

1/14-15/04................30...19...12...36...3
12/30/03 - 1/1/04.......33...18....8....38...3
11/03.......................32...15....10...38..5

49% very likely or somewhat likely to vote for Bush.
48% very unlikely or someone unlikely to vote Bush.

[jamesinca]

1. YIPEEE!!!

I have not a lot more to say on the issue except: expect a disaster.

[patricia92243]

2. Great news! Especially I thought Time Magaine was a right-wing hack

[kath]

17. Time magazine IS right-wing

[rusty charly]

3. but will we see this

as front page news, as when his numbers go up?

[RUexperienced]

4. Don't get too excited

about surveys of "adults" rather than "registered voters" or "likely voters."

<<Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Jan. 14-15, 2004. N=1,003 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.>>

The poll would be more accurate if it surveyed "Registered" Voters.
And would be much more accurate if it surveyed "Likely" Voters.

Counting people in a survey who are not registered, and who have not voted in years, is as accurate as Jay Leno's "Man On The Street" surveys.

[Frances]

5. Good point

Elections also depend on who turns out to vote. If one group that usually votes strongly for one party turns out in higher than expected numbers, then the results will be different than what the polling predicted. The same is true if fewer voters in that group come out. Bush senior felt that the fundamentalists did not go to the polls in the numbers that he expected and that was one reasons he lost in 1992.

[lancdem]

8. Absolutely

we need to get our voters out in huge numbers in 2004 because Bush's will be out in force, you can be sure.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

12. 1992 Voter turnout was 56% percent which is 6% higher than the...

average. Moderates came out for Perot and the Liberal Democratic base came out for Bill Clinton (our last ELECTED President); the Conservative base stayed home because of their anger Bush I.

[Mikimouse]

6. Actually though, if they surveyed adults...

that means that they didn't survey the freeps. Their input might have skewed the results by at least .0002%

[lancdem]

7. One thing to keep in mind, though

is the last CNN/Time poll did poll likely voters in a head-to-head matchup of Dean and Bush, and Dean trailed by just 5 points.

[RUexperienced]

9. But that poll also included

non-registered voters, registered-but-never-voted-in-my-life adults.

[Dems Will Win]

23. That is absolutely incorrect

The CNN/Time poll 51-46 was 604 likely voters. They switched at that point from releasing the usual Registered voters.

[Pale_Rider]

10. True .... and watch out for ...

...election day shenanigans by Baker and company.

[alcuno]

15. I didn't notice that the first time. He usually does better w/ adults

than registered or likely voters. He could be lower yet. I thought that many polls had switched to voters in the election year. Wonder why they are polling adults?

[grava lox]

18. beat me to it

Does anyone have the most recent "likely voter" surveys that ask similar questions? My guess is that they show Bush with a slightly bigger lead, maybe 6 percentage points. Just don't want to get overly optimistic here from a survey of "adults" vs. likely voters.

[joeybee12]

11. Get out the Turkey and the Flight Suit--Put that Turkey in the Flight Suit

Something will be done soon by the demon Rove to try and bring the numbers back up.

[Virginian]

13. How is Reagan's health?

n/t

[UrbScotty]

16. He's "rarely awake"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/Default.aspx?id=3660926&p1=0

LOS ANGELES, Dec. 4 - President Reagan, who suffers from advanced stages of Alzheimer’s disease, is now confined to a bed, rarely awake and unable to walk or talk, according to a story in the latest issue of People magazine.

...

[snippy]

22. Bush will deliver a nauseating eulogy when the time comes.

Bush also will lie in the eulogy. And he probably will get a bump in the polls. However, many republicans may become disabled as a result of a never ending sobbing orgasm.

[Poiuyt]

25. The Reagans hate the Bushs

though I suppose they won't be able to stop him from giving one. I would love to hear Ron Jr. tell Bush to just stay away.

[Virginian]

14. I liked the numbers better in November.

[mike1963]

19. Yes but there was that little bump from 'catching' Saddam, now going down

again. But you can bet the BFEE will manufacture something at the "appropriate time"...
:grr:

[Dr Fate]

20. Even with the media ignoring the O'Neil allegations...

...I guess 3 or 4 people heard about it, even though all media outlets are ignoring it now...

[progressiverealist]

21. I think the "Saddam bump" is officially over- have you all noticed

that each bump is a little smaller than the last?

The 9/11 bump was truly huge. The Iraq war bump was smaller, but still significant. This last one was very very small.

[number6]

24. and I want to see it keep going down

:)