New poll trends against Bush.

[Timefortruth]

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Jan. 14-15, 2004. N=1,003 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection, how likely are you to vote for him: very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?"
1/14-15/04
.

Very Likely
Some what likely
Unlikely Very
Unlikely
Not Sure

1/14-15/04................30...19...12...36...3
12/30/03 - 1/1/04.......33...18....8....38...3
11/03.......................32...15....10...38..5

49% very likely or somewhat likely to vote for Bush.
48% very unlikely or someone unlikely to vote Bush.



edited for editing

[0007]

1. Man, like am getting drunk looking at numbers, LOL!

...until I viewed the bottom line which sez it all. Thanks

[alcuno]

2. And it's "likely" to be reported (if at all) as only two numbers

Likely and unlikely. They squeeze the data together so that people can't really see what is going on.

[seventhson]

3. You kinda skewered the numbers wrong by accident

VERY UNLIKELY (Anti-Bush) is 36 percent!!!

Somewhat Unlikely is 12 per cent.


Very Likely (Pro-Bush) is 30 per cent


and somewhat likely is 19 per cent.

In other words the very unlikelys are much more solid and higher numbers (by 20%) against Bush than the very likelys are FOR Bush.

Bushes support is way squishy in the middle.

Opposition is way stronger/deeper and solid.

Just wanted to point out that you switched the categories and so the site has the numbers more clearly.

(Hard to cut and paste those damn polls here)

This is GREAT news . Thanks for posting!

[Hokie]

4. Bush* is toast..unless

Shrub* is toast with poll numbers like this early in the game - unless there is a another war or terrorist attack or both. So you can count on it folks. Duck and take cover.

:nuke:

[salinen]

5. If by some miracle chimp loses

I will be so impressed with this nation, and welcome a heathier government.

[lancdem]

6. I look at those hardcore numbers, too

The only word of caution I'd add is, this is not likely voters. But I do think there is a strong anti-Bush animus that will bring many Dems (and perhaps new voters) to the polls in 2004. BTW, wasn't it CNN/Time that had Howard Dean just 5 points behind Bush in its previous poll? Can't wait to see how he, Clark and others do against Bush in this poll.

[Aristus]

7. How could the Chimp possibly benefit from another terrorist attack?

The Repukes managed successfully to place the blame for September 11th on Bill Clinton. But what will they do next time? Won't another attack prove that the Oaf of Office is falling down on the security issue?

[bigwillq]

8. Agree. I don't think Shrub will get the sympathy vote for another

attack. I think people will be as mad as ever that it happened again.

[TomNickell]

9. No terror attack, but appearance of progress in Iraq.....

Another terrorist attack doesn't help Bush.

The history, surprisingly, is that the party in power when a war starts loses ground in the next election. Roosevelt lost seats after Pearl Harbor. Didn't work that way in '02, but the War on Terror isn't really a war. And the Democrats weren't really an opposition party.

Some attempt at phony progress in Iraq is their best shot. Some jury-rigged government and military that -might- hold together until November.

[bigwillq]

10. I agree with "phony" progress in Iraq

although I still think shrub needs to clean up a lot more to guarantee re-election. Look out chimp.

[calimary]

13. Well, it would certainly blow his argument that we're safer now because

of his policies, if such were to happen. Considering this, I find it highly unlikely that he'd have his people stage something else. Unless it's another war. But even THAT may not be an easy sell.

Let's hope, anyway.

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

11. This is exactly why we'll see RED ALERT on Halloween next year

RED ALERT-
Temporary military law-
Oct 31, 2004
Election week

And Elections will be held with armed soldiers at each and every poll -
the mission: to search and destroy !!!
To intimidate each and every voter,
To encourage long hours in line,
To discourage any busy citizen from waiting all day to vote.

They don't need another 911-
-they just get a red alert to do the work for them.

Absentee ballots may be the way to go.
(unless they conveniently lose them all)

[joefree1]

12. Please board trains