Kerry Wins Iowa Caucus in 11th Hour Surge

[NNN0LHI]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=716&e=1&u=/ap/20040120/ap_on_el_pr/iowa_caucus_rdp

DES MOINES, Iowa - John Kerry (news - web sites) rode an 11th-hour surge to victory in Iowa's kickoff presidential caucuses, upsetting Democratic front-runner Howard Dean (news - web sites) and stunning caucus favorite Dick Gephardt (news - web sites). Kerry's comeback blew the nomination fight wide open, setting the stage for a free-for-all in New Hampshire's follow-up primary.

[psychopomp]

1. All right, people!

It looks like we have a real contest. The front-runners are all good candidates. Let's see what they're made of as the heat is turned on!

[Born Free]

45. All right, people!"

I agree, the good news is the turn out, looks like a lot of people are interested. I was at the doctors office yesterday where you are forced to watch FOX news( and they make you wait an hour to see the doctor for 5 minutes) , and the word they were using was to describe the election was "exciting" . Imagine that, an exciting presidential race, just the opposite of everything we have grown used to hearing. Let's hope the candidates can keep the excitement going - remember each and every one of those people voting are probable volters to replace the bush team and get American back on track. It's ok to like a particular candidate better than the others but the real goal is to replace the bush team so any of the above is a win-win for America.

[loudsue]

2. Another election result that has me scratching my head.....

WHY are elections turning out so differently from the polls? Why are elections NOT looking like they're even real anymore?

I think Kerry's great. I'm FLOORED that Edwards beat Dean in the Iowa election.

This is just too weird.

[fjc]

7. Perhaps Dean is just too strident.

People think, and I guess correctly, that it won't win in November.

[BenFranklinUSA]

58. Polls Reflect That Sentiment

On the question,

"Which ONE candiate quality mattered most in deciding whom to support tonight?"

Strong stand on issues 29% (the only issue Dean beat the other candidates, and barely 31% of total, Kerry 26%, Edwards 23%)
Can beat George W Bush 26% (Kerry 37%, Edwards 30% of total)
Care about people like me 22% (Edwards 41% of total)
Experience 15% (Kerry 71% of total).

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/iowa_caucus.pdf

[BenFranklinUSA]

59. ...and "Newbies" represented 55%; 37% Kerry, 24% Edwards, 22% Dean

so either Dean's "new blood" isn't really there,
or many changed their minds in the end.

[absolutezero]

10. First thing i thought

I knew he and edwards were surging, but i didn't think he'd win...edwards maybe, with dean in a close second but this seems weird

[chester2003]

30. I don't believe the polls

I saw one that was a poll of 150 likely voters. Even the ones from yesterday had a range of 18% for Dean to 26% for Kerry, and the news all had the same line about it being a statistical dead heat. The media wants it to look close so you will watch their programs.

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

41. you know, you're right-the results don't even seem realistic

Anyone know how many Dieold machines are ther in Iowa?
Hate to sound "tinfoilish" but it's just too wierd that Edwards beat Dean.

Let's see how it goes in the less Electronic friendly voting areas.

[demdave]

43. Very tinfoilish...considering there were no machines used at all.

You should do some research on the Dem. Iowa caucus system. This was not an electronic voting event.

[metisnation]

50. media

the media lies daily...I loved Carlson Tucker's look on his face when he had to admit that his guess of Dean winning the Iowa Caucus as being wrong. Thanks for taking the bait stooge.

[Davis_X_Machina]

3. Think of Kerry as the Democratic Bob Dole.

Senator since forever.
Been on TV since forever.
High-profile political wife.
War hero.
No detectable fire in the belly.

He's the "Well, I guess it must be his turn" candidate.

The 1996 race is not a pleasant precedent to contemplate.

[DrBB]

17. Scathing.

And I think you've nailed it to the wall. That is absolutely right. And I speak as a Mass resident, Kerry voter, and former Kerry supporter.

Clark is just ever so much better of a Kerry than Kerry, I'm afraid.

[trogdor]

57. How much "mo" does Edwards have.

I heard somewhere he was polling in the 5% range just a week ago. I like Edwards a lot. I wonder how much momentum he really has, and whether he can sustain it after getting hammered like Dean had.

I think the lead is going to change hands several times before it's over.

[Lorien]

22. The "establishment's" choice

as I keep saying, Kerry is the one the "establishment" and the media wants, therefore, he's the man. Regardless of wether or not he would make a good President, he has no "Elvis" and has, thus far, run a bumpy campaign. America votes for the most "likable" or the most passionate, and I'm not sure Kerry fits either bill. His IWR and Patriot act votes might been a boon for the Greens, as well. :-(

[piece sine]

24. that is so true...

I weep for my party; we're goners!

[info being]

61. Totally true Kerry = We're toast

[metisnation]

4. TUCKER CARLSON

I LOVED the way he looked when he had to admit that he was wrong. Thanks for taking the bait Tucker u hate monger.

[Dagaz]

The Dean Kool Aid takes another victim

Dean is the candidate of the Big Media.

[KeepItReal]

33. You mean, Dean is the whipping boy of the Big Media

Their bias *against* him is obvious and documented.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2004/01/13/fineman/index_np.html

[Skittles]

5. Clark will wipe the floor with him

my predicion

[Quixote1818]

8. Clark will take Dean supporters

I agree that Clark will now win New Hampshire as the Dean people will move over to Clark and Kerry will struggle to keep vets and the Pro "outsider" vote against someone like Clark.

[chester2003]

32. What do the Dean people and Clark people have in common?

[Skittles]

54. a belief in backing someone they think can beat Bush

that's what

[maryallen]

15. I like Kerry, but ...

He will never carry the south ... not one state in the south.

I say that as a southerner.

[incontrovertible]

20. my prediction:

Kerry puts a dagger through the twin hearts of the Dean and Clark campaigns in New Hampshire. South Carolina is Edwards last stand, and any remaining animosity towards the establishment will manifest itself not in a jump to Clark, but in a better-than-expected Sharpton performance in SC.

It's Kerry plus a player to be named later.

[kysrsoze]

37. Go Lieberman!

Bwaaaahaaaahaaahaaaa! Did anybody vote for him?

[incontrovertible]

38. For those who missed it

a few days ago I offered a wager to donate $50 to DU on behalf of any takers, if my prediction that Dean was going to come in third in Iowa proved wrong.

No takers then, maybe one now.

New prediction: Top three in New Hampshire are the top three tonight. Clark comes in fourth.

My premise: Dean has punched himself out already. Kerry's got momentum in his own backyard. Edwards star is rising. Clark's endorsement by McGovern and Michael Moore do more harm than good within the New Hampshire electorate, and you don't have to dig too deep to discover the man is intensely disliked by his former peers and colleagues.

Same bet: You win, I put in $50 in your name. I win, you reciprocate.

Any takers?

[Robb]

52. Heck, I'll see that one

...is the bet simply that? Top three tonight are top three (any order) in NH and Clark is 4th, I drop 50 to DU? Otherwise, you do?

Can't lose! I love DU, so it's win-win. I'm also a big fan of all four of these guys, so that's also win-win. :)

I'll bite, because Clark's been working too hard to have all three ahead of him there, in my opinion. Plus, if you're right, heck, I wanna have my own gurupundit! Swami Incontroverdamus!

[BenFranklinUSA]

60. That's the ticket :) Kerry/Edwards n/t

[kysrsoze]

36. You've got to be kidding

I didn't see any huge numbers for him. If he wants to get any votes, he had better start showing up for some of the debates.

[JNelson6563]

47. Oh it will be a dog fight for sure

Kerry and Clark are going to fight to the death for NH. This is going to be very interesting to watch.

Julie

[Just Me]

6. ANYONE BUT BUSH!!!!

Hey,...Dean captured my passion, Kucinich captured my hope, Kerry captured my prudence, Edwards captured my dream, Sharpton captured my humor, Clark captured my determination, Braun captured my spirit, Gephardt captured my belief, Lieberman captured my,...ahem,...my,...geez,...cynicism?

Well,...anyway,...they are all fabulous compared to Bush!!!!

ANYONE BUT BUSH!!!

Put them all together,...and we could see the miracle that will be necessary to heal the wounds inflicted by the incumbent administration. Actually, it will take ALL of us to pull together what this administration has blown apart.

[proud patriot]

11. Great post Just Me

I couldn't agree more :hi:

Congrats to Kerry and Kerry Supporters

[markses]

13. EXCELLENT POST!!!

Keep those Bush fuckers guessing.

Nice version. Let's combine those qualities and knock these fascists out in November!!!!!

[enough]

19. Well said.

This post should be our banner for the next few months.

Thanks, Just Me

[DemoTex]

21. Moi too, ABB

Well put, Just Me.

[Mari333]

26. ABB here!!!

My mother is bankrupt, my sister lost her house, and my stepson is going to Iraq..
ABB ABB ABB ABB ABB ABB!!!!
*bUsh has GOT to GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

[ACPS65]

9. Great news.

How's the weather down there, Howard.

[markses]

14. How about some positive, 51er?

No negative tonight. This ain't a fucking football game; it's a decision for the very soul of this nation. STOP THE BLOODY INFIGHTING, if you ain't an imposter trying to stir up shit.

[Zero Gravitas]

12. This is great

and I don't mean that from a pro- or anti- any given candidate point of view. I mean it because we have a strong group of candidates here and people are not making any snap judgements. The number one issue is who has the best chance to beat Bush ? Also good news is the high turnout, people are motivated to get rid of Bush, if they showup in November, Bush is toast!

[markses]

16. Hear Hear, Dizzawg!

Put the hurting on the Bushites, no mistake!

[LiberalFighter]

23. That is the difference.

The top 4 are strong candidates. More so then republicans in 80, 88, 96, and 2000.


What happened to Clark? No mention of him.

[Zero Gravitas]

25. Clark didn't Campaign in Iowa

and you need a good organization on the ground to do well in Iowa, NH will be his first real test.

[onehandle]

18. Excellent....

I still say, Kerry/Clark or Clark/Kerry and the chimp goes back in the bottle.

I hate to admit that I wrote off Kerry two months ago.

Glad I didn't have bets in on Clinton in 1992.

[leesa]

27. ABB! Hope Kerry sprouts some balls soon and stops being so wishy washy

He is weak, but maybe this will make him stronger.

[alfredo]

28. He came across very forceful tonight. What surprised me was

Edwards. He could find a place on the ticket. Kerry would need him or Clark if he has any hopes to win in the south.

Let's see what happens in NH. Can Dean regroup? Where will Gephardt's people go?

As long as there is drama, the Dems will get free media exposure. There isn't much bush can do about it.

[incontrovertible]

31. as I recall

Gephardt wasn't polling jack in New Hampshire. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. I think he'd expected all along to lose NH by a wide margin. Whatever voters he had up for grabs there will be in the Kerry camp by tomorrow - Gephardt is nowhere near being an outsider, and his supporters aren't going there, either. What kind of dyed-in-the-wool establishmentarian do you have to be to have hitched your wagon to Gephardt, for God's sake?

SOTU tomorrow. Bush always excels with the public at these, whether anyone here cares to admit it or not. He'll get a bump out of it. Not a lot, but enough to go back over 50%. The appearance of Bush as a collected and steadfast "leader" will only add to Kerry's appeal to former Gephardt voters and undecideds, and probably a nice piece of Clark's, too. The experienced voter base is NOT going to nominate somebody who has the potential to wind up looking like a yapping dog chasing after Bush's heels. Whatever Kerry's image, that isn't it - the man towers over Bush, from war record to foreign policy expertise to economic policy to life accomplishment, and he carries himself with confidence and dignity.

Whatever they say, Kerry's the one the Bush camp least wants to face. They want Dean desperately, which is why he's being stopped. Clark? They've got something on the order of three thousand former generals of equal or higher rank ready to rip him up and down the line, from now until doomsday. There are several on-record excoriating the man in public. A british general told him to his face that he was an idiot who was about to stumble into World War III by parking combat helicopters on a runway to block Russian transports, then flat refused to carry out his directive. Compared to these two soon-to-be-defeated also-rans, about the only thing the Bush people can say about Kerry is that he's from Massachusetts, and he's kind of funny looking.

[daleo]

29. It's probably good that lots of the candidates are still in play

The horse race aspect will force the media to pay attention, without knowing who to slam too early. Same thing for the BFEE. All of the candidates seem of high quality, especially when compared to *. One gets the feeling that the status quo would prefer Kerry, but that could still change.

[gauguin57]

35. woo hoo!

Kerry/Edwards '04 (my dream ticket). That ticket could definitely beat Bush. I don't feel confident in any of the others -- they all have too many more weaknesses than Kerry and Edwards. The right two guys won tonight. I look forward to more wins in the future.

[maggrwaggr]

34. in 1988 Dick Gephart won Iowa

and where is he now?

[Entente]

39. I like this assessment of what hapenned

From Salon's Joan

Walsh:http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room//index.html

"The optimistic spin on the Iowa upset is that maybe Democrats have more attractive candidates than the media gave them credit for. At least real Democrats have now spoken, and the race is finally on. "

[Emillereid]

40. God I hope he's not our candidate --

of course he will get my vote, but I don't know if I can give him my legs. Maybe if he would apologize for his vote giving the Chimp a blank check to go to war... But how can I vigorously work for someone who committed such a serious breach of good judgment by giving this idiot president the wherewithal to wage unprovoked war. God save us from these fools.

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

42. can't give him my legs either-the war blank check still really bothers me

I'll vote for anyone but Bush- but he knew just as well as we did that there were no valid reasons to invade that oil rich country.
Maybe his Bonesman loyalties showed a little.
They do take an oath to back each other thru thick or thin.

Can we really have another "obligated" man in the White House?

[isbister]

44. Re: God

Blank check to go to war? Read the resolution:

http://usinfo.state.gov/regional/nea/iraq/text/1010res.htm

and what Kerry had to say at the time of the IWR vote. The two things just do not add up to the picture you've painted of Kerry.

[info being]

62. Exactly. I will totally disengage if he's the candidate

[JNelson6563]

46. Delightful news really

They had to tag-team him to stop Dean in Iowa. hahaha!!! I love it!!

On to NH where there will be fewer player to do the tag-team efforts and we'll see more manno a manno. To see Gep throw to Kerry and DK to Edwards, well this only makes me more determined to changed my party.

Time to kick some well feathered nests out of their lofty perches.

:toast:

Julie

[trapper914]

48. Two Things...

First, I'm glad Gephardt dropped out. I wish a few more would. I'm glad the Dems have several quality candidates, but I for one don't relish a long, hard primary fight. Too expensive. How much will the remaining candidate have left for Bush?

Also, Iowa changed more than just perception. Kerry and Edwards are now targets. Get ready for every "controversial" position Kerry took in the Senate, or every questionable class action suit Edwards represented to be trotted out by the "so-called liberal media" in the next week. Hell...Dean got criticized because a Vermont State Trooper was a wife beater!

For a guy Karl Rove says he couldn't wait to run against, he sure is making it difficult for Dean to get the nomination.

[llmart]

49. I agree with trapper 014....

The media kept hammering on Dean precisely because he was the front runner and virtually ignored Kerry/Edwards. They'll be coming out with their "labels" this week. They labeled Dean "too angry" and that's all you heard. Just like Gore was "too stiff". Do you ever hear them say Bush is "too stupid"? Or "too uninterested"? Or "out of touch"? No. The great news in all of this (it's only Iowa after all)was the turnout. If we're to win this election, turnout by Dems will be the key. Iowas Dems turned out in the greatest numbers since 1988. Let's keep it up!

[pintobean]

53. Right. Don't count Dean out.

The repugs, the media and most of his opponents were labeling Dean as angry.In the minds of Iowans, he confirmed this when he told that guy to shut up and sit down. A repug, but he was one of them. That attitude doesn't play well in the Midwest. Hopefully, he learns from this. He has the money and a large army of supporters. He will be around for a long time. For this reason, no one but Dean will be able to wrap up the nomination early.

[LeftHander]

51. To much made of Iowa

Bush was third in Iowa in 2000, Gephardt won it once...frankly because things are so close it will be after Wisconsin before we see any thing really emerge. I suspect Dean and Clark will do well and we may even see DK....

I wouldn't expect Kerry to last beyond Wisconsin.

[GinaMaria]

55. From the AP article

Kerry scored strongly across a spectrum of political leanings and age groups, according to a survey of caucus-goers done for The Associated Press and the major TV networks.

Young adults, older voters and independents liked him. So did voters who identified themselves as everything from somewhat liberal to conservative.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040120/ap_on_el_pr/iowa_caucus_rdp_89

If Kerry has broad appeal, he may be the one to beat bush. If he can come across as both liberal and conservative he can grab the votes in the middle.

[Native]

56. You're right, Kerry's numbers were high across the spectrum.

People need to focus on the significance of that.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

63. Kerry absolutely has broad appeal

he is assembling a formidable backing. Read this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=144884

[ConcernedCanuk]

64. I thought Kerry's speech was powerful - (LINK to full text)

.
.
.
Finally, my friends, we need a Democratic nominee who can stand up to this President eye to eye, toe to toe, face to face and make it clear: We Democrats know how to make America safer.

George Bush has run the most arrogant, inept, reckless and ideological foreign policy in the modern history of our country.

Now George Bush and Karl Rove say that in 2004, they want to run on national security. I can see why. They certainly can’t run on jobs or health care or the environment. Well, as I have said, I know something about aircraft carriers for real.

And if George W. Bush wants to make national security the central issue in this campaign, I have three words for him I know he understands: Bring it on.

/snip/



(click on graphic above for full text of Iowa spech Jan 19, 2004)

While I remain undecided on exactly who I'd prefer in the WH, as long as it is an anti-war Dem, I will sleep better.

I read some of JK's speeches dating back to before 9-11, and his position has been consistent. On reading some of those speeches carefully, I see that the media(suprise) and other opponents have taken phrases out of context to paint him as inconsistent.

Anyhoo - congrats to Dems, and right now, specifically "Comeback Kerry". :thumbsup:

I don't want to alienate those that support other Democratic candidates, but ANY Dem that can unseat the Texacutioner, and put the rest of the Republican WarMachine on the back bench sits ok with me!

[Hell Hath No Fury]

65. Congratulations...

to the Kerry campaign and to his supporters here at DU. :)