CIA warns of Iraq civil war

[durutti]

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/7765415.htm

WASHINGTON - CIA officers in Iraq are warning that the country may be on a path to civil war, current and former U.S. officials said Wednesday, starkly contradicting the upbeat assessment that President Bush gave in his State of the Union address.

The CIA officers' bleak assessment was delivered verbally to Washington this week, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the classified information involved.

The warning echoed growing fears that Iraq's Shiite majority, which has until now grudgingly accepted the U.S. occupation, could turn to violence if its demands for direct elections are spurned.

Meanwhile, Iraq's Kurdish minority is pressing its demand for autonomy and shares of oil revenue.

[liberalnurse]

1. Where will they get their weapons?

I don't want to be viewed as having a "Blondie moment" but how will they actually do this if our troops are in the middle?

Didn't *bush just say in the new, 2004 version of the SOTU, that all was under control essentially?

[JailForBush]

3. Our troops can't maintain law and order as it is (especially when

some of them are apparently among the gangsters). Moreover, I believe Iraqi freedom fighters and terrorists comprise just a small pecentage of the population. Triple their numbers and factor in the Kurds, and things could get interesting. And if the bloodshed draws another nation(s) into the fray, then it could turn into a Republicans' wildest dream - endless war.

[chenGOD]

4. I don't know if you're serious about that "blonde" moment, but...

AFAIK, in the middle east, one of the ways men show off, is by the size of their arsenal. I don't think that weapons will be any problem...

[Go Eagles]

5. under control from someone who doesn't read papers or worry about details

There is no shortage of conventional weapons in Iraq and various armed militia groups. When Baghdad fell, the military dispersed their forces and arsenals. There are also a number of ways to obtain weapons through black market sources and since security is almost non-existent and the borders are porous, it would be easy to do so. If a civil war occurred in Iraq it would not be waged by large conventional forces on the battle field but it would likely involve smaller guerrilla attacks, ethnic mob violence, rioting, terrorist attacks from one group directed at another, all while our forces are caught in the middle of it. Similar to what is happening currently in Iraq/Afghanistan or Beirut in the 80's except on a much larger scale.

[mmm]

6. Good Post Go Eagles

I think you summed it up

[JPace]

2. Civil war....almost everyone on DU knew that would

be the most likely thing to happen even
before the arrogant bush regime went
there.

What is sooo hard to accept is the terrible
waste in human life that is being wasted
trying to force American style of democracy
on to a nation that needs to find its own
style of democracy. There are no short cuts
to democracy.

[Moderator]

7. Duplicate

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=324818