Newsweek Poll: Campaign 2004 (Bush 46% / Kerry 49%)

[TheWebHead]

NEW YORK, Jan. 24 /PRNewswire/ -- Senator John Kerry has taken the lead nationally among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters over Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in the race for the Democratic nomination, according to the latest Newsweek Poll. Kerry leads the field with 30 percent, followed by Sen. John Edwards with 13 percent. Howard Dean falls to 12 percent from 24 percent in the last Newsweek Poll two weeks ago, and is even with General Wesley Clark, also at 12 percent.

Kerry also leads the pack of Democratic contenders among registered voters as the candidate who would have a better chance of beating President George W. Bush if the election were held today. A Kerry-Bush match-up would have Kerry up by 49 percent to Bush's 46 percent. A Clark and Bush match-up would be a close race, with Bush at 48 percent and Clark at 47 percent. Bush would have an edge over Edwards (49% to 46%). Yet, with a plus or minus margin of error, these match-ups result in a statistical dead heat. And the President would beat Dean (50% to 45%) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (49% to 45%).

Meanwhile, a week after President Bush's State of the Union address, his approval rating has fallen to 50 percent from 54 percent in the last Newsweek Poll (1/8-9/04). Yet, a 52-percent majority of registered voters says it would not like to see him re-elected to a second term. Only 44 percent say they would like to see him re-elected, a four-point drop from the last Newsweek Poll. (Of that, 37% strongly want to see him re-elected, and 47% strongly do not). However, a large majority of voters (78%) says that it is very likely (40%) or somewhat likely (38%) that Bush will in fact be re- elected to a second term in office. Only 10 percent believe it is not too likely or not at all likely (10%).

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040124/nysa010a_1.html

[berner59]

1. excellent news!!!

Let the Rove dirt digging begin... So far they're throwing the "Ted Kennedy Liberal" out there...but Kerry can throw back "Liar Liar, Pants on Fire" and that's all he'll need.

[lancdem]

3. What I like is that we have a bunch of candidates

who do well against Bush. Even Dean, who's beginning to recover.

[lancdem]

2. I wouldn't worry about the 78 percent who think Bush will win

That's what they've been told by the media. However, voters will make up their own minds! :)

[kimchi]

6. Also, a lot of people are hearing about BBV--

they know the fix is in.

[TruthIsAll]

10. This is the key stat: 47% strong No Bush relselect , 37% strong yes

Assume 47%-37% is a fixed stat and 16% are undecided, which is split evenly.

Then its a Dem landslide: 55-45

[grytpype]

13. Only 40% say Bush relect is VERY LIKELY!

>Large Majority (78%) Says That it is Very Likely (40%) or Somewhat Likely (38%)

OK, so 38% say it is "somewhat likely." I think it is somewhat likely, too. Does that make me a Bush supporter? Fark no.

[lancdem]

16. Good point

Heck, I think it's somewhat likely, too. It's also somewhat unlikely.

[msanger]

4. this is great news for all of us

Is this the first time bush has been "beaten" by an actual dem in a nation poll. He's often been beaten by the generic "democrat" but comes out ahead of any actual person.

At any rate, we are looking good no matter who our nominee turns out to be.

YAAAAEEEAGGGG. (or however you spell it.)

[kysrsoze]

54. The polls are all over the place this week.

Another poll said Kerry 26%, Dean 22% (this is supposedly after Dean bottomed out). Should be an interesting race.

[aquart]

5. Ah. Voters feel BushCo will steal it again.

[annxburns]

8. Yes, YES

ABB, ABB, ABB

Don't care if it is Clark, Edwards, or Kerry. Will work my ass off for any Dem ....

ABB,ABB, ABB

[Voltaire99]

37. Not unlikely

I think a Bush re-selection is at least as likely as a Bush election.

If someone other than Bush is seated in the White House next year, it probably will have taken more than a thin electoral college triumph. Anything too close to call will be rigged.

[aintitfunny]

7. This makes me happy.

Way to early in the game to take too much hope in it, but it is a wonderful early sign. Also an early warning signal to the Bushies. Its gonna get ugly.

[LiberalFighter]

9. Tell repugs that the poll was of Republicans.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

12. Wahooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!

While it is too early to tell, this poll indicates that this will be hard fight for both sides. Yes, Bushler will have to fight for it even though the "Librul" media will be on his side.

[Triana]

14. Excellent, but...

...with all the 'texass-style' redistricting, the tamperable voting machines, the complicit bush buttkissing corprat-owned media, the voter cleansing lists a la Florida 2000 being used nationwide now, it is still all too easy for Bu$hit, Inc. to STEAL votes - or manufacture them, or trash Democratic ones - or get SELECTED again and mark my words - THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THEY PLAN ON DOING...

They can't win on our issues, so they'll cheat. it's the Repuglican Way...same as they did in 2000 - AND THEY GOT AWAY WITH IT. that was just a 'test run', folks....this country is as occupied by that weaselly cabal as Iraq is, don't kid yourself.

I'm not saying don't be happy, but don't rest either! Fight, fight, fight, fight the Right. This is good news and it WILL make it harder for bu$hit to say he 'won' if he cheats. And he WILL cheat, lie, steal, whatever it takes.

[are_we_united_yet]

27. Absolutely a good point!!!

And let us not kid ourselves: this is the type of crap you're up against if you want to give * administration a pink slip.

[CalProf]

15. My question:

Is this the first time a POTUS has actually LOST points after the SOTU? I'd thought it was always good for at least a four point bounce.

This could be significant.

[lancdem]

17. I don't recall it ever happening before

Even if the speech is not great, POTUS normally gets at least a small bounce.

[IowaBiker]

22. Yes, it could be significant.

Personally I thought the SOTU was an embarassment for Bush and the party.

He came across as declaring that he has a license to lie to the American public. And that turns off all but the staunch loyalists.

I have believed all along that a strong left-of-center candidate with military experience could leave Bush's final numbers under 40%.

I think a lot of Bush's numbers are due to the fact he is the CIF during a war.

However his lack of honesty about the war will hurt him. Given a candidate who can credibly declare he will protect this nation, Bush will be in trouble. On economic issues, Bush is overwhelmingly recognized as a miserable failure.

The RNC is displaying some Newt Gingrich arrogance when they state Kerry is too liberal and out of touch. It is the RNC that is out of touch.

I don't yet think the RNC really understands what when on in Iowa. People are just plain fed up with his talk and his bullying and are still carrying a grudge over the 2000 election.

If those kind of questions are what's bothering the rest of the electorate, it will be a very exciting campaign season.

This country is a lot worse off that it was four years ago, and Bush is a big part of that problem.

this President promised he was a uniter, not a divider; and he and his PR machine has been one of the most divisive forces in American politics since the civil war.

--Brian

[Blue Gardener]

43. Welcome to DU IowaBiker!

:toast:

[fishnfla]

44. excellent post IB

welcome to the jungle!

[Jack Rabbit]

53. Question, Mr. Biker

I got the idea from watching Kerry come on strong towards the end that what many Iowa Democrats really decided they wanted was somebody who could beat Bush more than wanting to push some particular agenda, whether it was anti-war or for for national health care or whatever.

Is that what's happening?

[Arugula Latte]

81. How can you say SOTU was an embarrassment?

I mean, sure, 3 million jobs have been lost and the country's digging itself into a financial hole that we won't get out of for decades, but, my god, how can you ignore our fearless leader's strong stance against the scourge of STEROIDS in athletics and his astute recognition that we must go back to the MOON? :evilgrin:

[JoblessRecovery]

46. That's what I was wondering if I read right??? He LOST points

after the SOTU?? This IS significant if it's true. I'm so sick of him getting a free pass just for completing a whole sentence that I can hardly stand it.

[TruthIsAll]

51. POS, not POTUS

...

Dead chimp bounce..

[Jackpine Radical]

58. "Dead chimp bounce."

Consider that line officially stolen.

[Jack Rabbit]

52. That was my first thought when I saw this

This is the first poll that has any Democrat ahead of Bush; in addition, the others are within striking distance. Last week, Bus lead each of them by about 15 points.

Was the SOTU really that bad? To me, it seemed like just another SOTU that might be given by any other President, even a real one, in an election year.

Is it possible that what Bush is suffering from in this SOTU is that he lied so much in the last one and in almost everything he has said since? That people finally realize that when he open his mouth that all we should expect to come out of it are lies? That we know his numbers don't add up? No one can make the promises he did while making crippling tax cuts permanent.

We will beat him.

[Norbert]

55. Exactly what I was thinking

Either the voting populace was not moved by the SOTU or they were distracted by the Iowa Caucus. Not good news for Bu$hco. Shrubs base is not as solid as I thought.

Very good news for the Democrats but there is a lot of work to be done in the next ten months.

[TheWebHead]

18. the funny thing is

that Faux News is refusing to report it. I e-mailed that former Republican speechwriter Tony Snow to have the balls to report it, but still nothing.

[Raenelle]

59. Of course, if Clinton had had a negative reaction to a SOTU

there'd be more pundefecating about that than about Dean screaming.

[BeatleBoot]

19. I think the wheels are coming off of their Circus Wagon

:7

[tabasco]

20. A great way to put it.

The wheels are coming off the getaway car of the biggest robbers to ever occupy the White House. They could only cover up their crimes for so long. Now, they will try to steal more from the American people before they are put out on the street where they belong. I hope we can hold them accountable through criminal laws.

[wryter2000]

21. Great news

Bush is toast! :bounce:

[Beetwasher]

23. Now's the Time for the Full Court Press

All the Dems have to be absolutely RELENTLESS in shredding the Chimp.

[goforit]

50. The battle of the Skull n Bones......but true kissing cousins!!!!

So watch out who you support no matter how pretty the guy looks!!!


:puke:

[scarface2004]

24. wait till karl rove sees this!!!

don t let kerry on small planes pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze!!

[Pax Argent]

25. Proof of the people's belief in Bush's invulnerability

"However, a large majority of voters (78%) says that it is very likely (40%) or somewhat likely (38%) that Bush will in fact be re- elected to a second term in office. Only 10 percent believe it is not too likely or not at all likely (10%)."

The poll shows that the people polled would vote in Kerry or Clark, or that Bush would win with only very narrow margins, but the people also believe that Bush would win overall. The corporate media has built him up to the point that the people feel that he is untouchable, regardless of how unelectable he is from a logical or moral point of view.

The trick will be to teach, as Dr. Dean has been trying so desperately to prove, that the people do have the power to shape government and that apathy is not the answer. If that can be imparted, we can bring Bush down.

[Poiuyt]

26. Don't become overconfident

As long as bush/Rove control the media, I'm worried.

It's important that we all work VERY hard to get people to actually go to the polls

[TheDonkey]

28. BRING IT ON CHIMP!!!

Bush is hurtling towards disaster.

This scares me, either he will pull Osama out for political gain (doubtful as he has all but forgotten how to pronounce Bin Laden)

Or the war machine into Syria is pumping back up.

[fjc]

29. Look out for that October suprise....

[mike1963]

41. Oct. surprise...damn right, it's a high probability.

Reagan croaking, Bin Ladin "captured", another terist attack a la dirty bomb in Nashville or something bizarre like that.

[JoFerret]

42. Reagan dies and his last words are

Re-elect Bush for the Gipper. The bounce lasts two days so one week later they release Osama from the have where they've kept him and his dialysis machine ready in waiting for the necessary moment.

[Norbert]

56. Maybe a Rovian press release about Reagans demise

but don't think for a moment Nancy Reagan would have anything to do with it. The Reagans and Bushes aren't that chummy from what I hear. Besides, realistically Ronald Reagan hasn't the motor function anymore to swallow food much less speak.

[Zero Gravitas]

60. another "terrist" attack would sink Bush

[JoFerret]

63. Don't believe it

Who knows how people would respond. The fear. The panic. Don't even think it. It could be all we need to push toward even more repressive self serving crapola at home and abroad.

[Garion_55]

30. F'ING YAY!!!!!!!!!

now lets hope that this holds up or increases over time.

[Manix]

31. ..they didn't win last time and still grabbed power.....this is what

worries me. Can we overcome Republican corruption and dirty
tricks? We must be strong and vigilant.

[underpants]

32. Fox:"those who think Bush's re-election was a foregone conclusion....."

I heard that earlier today. They then ran numbers from another poll showing W still winning and seemed alarmed that it was as close as it was.

They can continue to tell the already convinced that it is over but that may backfire on them as those people may not deem it necessary to vote.

This is awesome news.

[Norbert]

57. This could end up being a double benefit.

Bu$h becomes the second president never to be elected to office.

And FOX does a "Thomas Dewey Wins" most of the year. Hopefully their credibility takes it on the chin.

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

33. the numbers will only get better

The Chimp could point to an annual growth rate of 8.2 -- that's EIGHT POINT TWO -- percent in economic growth late in '03. He will not come close to that number for the rest of '04. Even if the Dow hits 12,000, which most people are expecting anyway, Bush will still have unemployment of about 6 percent, millions of uninsured and tens of millions questioning the foreign policy.

[democrank]

34. Leave no Kleenex behind.

In fact, buy a case Karl. Democrats are stirring, the country is waking up and Junior is going to be held accountable.

[KayLaw]

35. Frigging Lying Corporate Media

I think a lot of people dislike Bush but feel isolated. The televised media are still hammering the idea that Bush is unbeatable. Just last week I heard Katie Couric quote " many who say Bush is unbeatable."

On CNN I heard four experts in a row say that the economy is great, the Democrats have nothing to run on, Bush is a shoe in, Wall Street is betting on Bush, and I can only imagine what they're saying on Fox.

The big corporations love Bush. They can carry on anyway they want, pay their employees crappy wages or shift jobs to China, treat them like trash, pollute and not have to clean up, screw up and not pay for their mistakes - no wonder they work so tirelessly to brainwash us and shove their boy down our throats!

[Voltaire99]

36. Well said

Recipe for a somnambulent public!

But if these numbers are to be believed, it looks like the sleepyheads are starting to stir.

[mitchum]

38. Wonderful news

[ramapo]

39. Meaningless

Don't get excited one way or the other. It's very nice for us to read but doesn't mean a thing.

[GinaMaria]

45. Meaningful for the moment

It doesn't say anything about the end of the game, just where we are now. Sustaining this is our challenge and objective.

I sent this to a friend LCV, they just endorsed Kerry. She said his life time score for environmentalism is high 90's, higher than Gore's lifetime score.

[GOPBasher]

40. It looks like unless Diebold can steal it for him,

it's bye-bye Bush.

[teryang]

47. Chimp is a goner

No one believes the hype about the economy. Job security and reduced working conditions are concern number one. Many thinking rock ribbed working class republican veterans are disgusted with the Chimp. The Armed forces, and veterans are being abused and war time vets know it. Clark is the bridge getting their attention. Kerry is working these working class voters big time.

Once white males decide they can vote democratic, they will abandon the chimp. Their wives are chronically under and unemployed. The patriotic message from democratic candidates is winning them over. They will vote against the chimp. This is the cross over vote. Anyone but Bush.

[JoblessRecovery]

48. I can hardly believe my eyes! Do I dare believe it - that 2 Dem candidates

are already polling ahead of Bush this early in the game? That is indeed wonderful news. We can't afford another 4 years of Bush and Cheney.

[goforit]

49. Not according to MADMAN Dick Cheney........he'll use force!!!

He will never give up the thrown!!!!!!!!

[osaMABUSh]

61. Beside everything else - Kerry is a likeable guy

and for some that's what they'll vote on.

OK, if the debate is not the deserter vs the 4 star General then it'll be the AWOL vs the Vietnam Hero

[ignatius]

62. Yahoo!!! Kerry and Clark, I know Clark says he will not be the

VP but for the good of his country I bet he would change his mind.

Kerry and Clark would pulverize Spacemonkey and Snaggletooth.

[Malva Zebrina]

64. this is really exciting

Bush , I believe, will do anything to get elected and that which he will do will be against all citizen's rights in the country. We simply do not matter to him and his handlers and his cronies.

He will pursue his own narcissicistic delusions in spite of the people of the country and their protective Constitution which he has vowed to "protect' and has made , indeed, an mockery out of that
Constitution.

He will do anything and it will be declared, "legal"

. If so, and if we see it, all of us, young and old must take to the streets to demand his impeachment and his ouster and even his criminal prosecution.

The man is the dumbest poliyical thing that has ever forced itself on the American people and has made a complete mess out of this once great country as well as a complete ass out of himself and the office of the Presidency.

I cannot wait to see him get stomped and clobbered in some debates as the election draws near, if he has the courage to even attend one.

He is a proven coward who runs from conflicts and lets someone else take charge until it is "safe" for him to make his appearance and so I think he will avoid any debates.

Like everything else that requires up fron honesty and confrontation and dealing with the situations, he will run away from it, scared and trembling, and menawhile order his propaganda machine to tell us all that he is a great "Churchillian" leader, or a "Linconesque" leader when all he really his is an evil, coward of a bloviating man seeking to make a fortune for himself and his buddies with his administration.

I believe that is the truth about George Bush and the contributions to his incredible and illegal jolt into office tells me that it is his goal--he has much payback to scurry to.

He needs to be taken down fast and secured into a one term presidencey, a failed one at that, like his daddy's, so that he cannot invent another "tragedy" like 9-11, to scare us all into voting for this warmongering idiot.

[dolstein]

65. Enjoy it while it lasts -- Kerry will lose to Bush

Heck, even Dukakis managed to leads Bush Sr. in the polls for a while. But there is no way in hell that Kerry would beat Bush in the general election. He may lose more respectably than McGovern and Mondale did, but he'll lose nonetheless. The Republicans are going to tag him with the "more liberal than Ted Kennedy" label, and that label will stick, because it happens to be true.

[Name removed]

66. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Forkboy]

68. Dont mind him

It's tough being positive with all the Joementum.

[dolstein]

74. You want the truth? You can't handle the truth!!

NT

[are_we_united_yet]

67. Hey Dolstein

See above post

[are_we_united_yet]

69. Yeah but they CANT tag him

with the more AWOL than George tag.

[dolstein]

75. Yeah, and that world so well in 2000

Face it, you and Michael Moore are the only people who care about it. If the AWOL changes didn't work in 2000, they're not going to work in 2004. Sorry, better luck next time.

[are_we_united_yet]

77. Jeez

Such a compelling argument. I guess you win.

[sonias]

70. time for terra, terra, terra, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11

This is fabulous news (his nose dive in the polls). I don't buy polls but some of them have been accurate. They certainly were in Iowa about that 11th hour surge.

We've beat bu$h before and we can beat him again. Of course that assumes they don't steal another election from us.

Don't take anything for granted and keep vigilant.

Sonia

[AlFrankenFan]

71. Hooray! That brightens up my day!

:D

[NewYorkerfromMass]

72. They will have to drag John's name down into the gutter to beat him

They will have to pull out every stop- launch everyting they've got. But I have a feeling no matter what they do- we're coming, they're going, and the door's hitting them in the ass on the way out.

[TexasProgressive]

73. Who will be the VP if Kerry is the P?

It's a waste of time I know, but I keep running possible tickets through my head. Most people are saying Kerry/Clark or Kerry/Edwards. I tend to like Kerry/Edwards with Clark as Sec. of Defense. And I would love to see prominent positions for Moseley Braun and Kucinich, but what do I know about anything? At Harkin's Steak Fry last year, Bill Clinton said "Democrats want to fall in love, Republicans just fall in line. Go ahead and fall in love, but when it's down to one candidate, fall in line."

What the hell. Anything could happen. I honestly like 'em all.

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

76. They are trying to pick out candidate for us- False #'s!!!!Wake up!!

What kind of people are we?
Are we going to let them tell us that Kerry is our nominee ???
These folks at Newsweek are Bush Cheerleaders!
Have they ever said anything bad about the invasion or the false WMD's Bush sold us the war on?
Doesn't that tell us something?

They don't want Bush to go up against CLARK 'cause they know that a 4 star General would take Bush down hard!
They don't want him to run against Dean because Dean has so many supporters and raised most of his money from small donations--No match for Bush and his few Corporate supporters.

We must think for ourselves.
If they want Kerry to be our nominee there is a reason!

Dont Buy IT

[Norton]

78. If the R's were going to shove someone down our throats

it would be Dean. He's so much more beatable than Kerry... Dean folks won't admit it, but he's pretty kooky at times. I expect the "Iowa rant" cost him New Hampshire and maybe the whole nomination... it was really freaky. You can't be "really freaky" and get the independent vote.

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

79. energized with a hoarse voice is not freeekee!!oooooh scarry?

Looks like You fell for it!
They played it and played it and played it-
I just saw tonight on one of the news channels --mentioned how many times per hour they played that..unbelievable !!

You are just the voter they want to reach!!
Just take a few of Bush's assenine statements and one could write a book!!
ohh sorry, they already did Bushisms...vol I and Vol II
have you ever once seen anything played over and over and over?

realize!
Wake UP !
whatever they play over and over is ONLY in the corporate media's immediate interest and ultimate benefit

What's really scary os the deaths in Iraq--not a hoarse yippie yi yay!

keep on Sheepin on bruthuh--
vote for the Media's top horse race choice!
everyone else is right?

[Freddie Stubbs]

80. But I though that Kerry was unelectable

;)