*BREAKING* 52% of Americans DO NOT want to see Bush re-elected!!

[leftyandproud]

Wow....Looks like his immigration proposals and massive deficit spending have pissed off his conservative base.


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040124/nysa010a_1.html

[TrueAmerican]

1. Dupe

In before the lock.

[slor]

2. Still not as high as it...

should be...but I'll take it!

[havocmom]

27. Actually, the 52% are those with the sand to admit it

The percentage of those who fel it in their hearts and bones but don't have the strenght to admit it is probably much higher.

The more people who start pointing out that the emporer is a naked, lying jerk, the more people will nod in agreement. There are folks who are just followers and will follow a weasel if that is all that shows up. We just have to point out that there are alternatives to weasles or theiving bastards.

edit header

[0rganism]

3. I think his "conservative" base is well represented here

There are 37% who "strongly want" bush to have a 2nd term, and from these I'd say we have the NEW republican party faithful, the "neo-conservative" base. They are the young ignorant brownshirts, the corporate kleptocracy, the propagandized nationalists, the religious fanatics, and the libertarian wannabes. The paleo-conservatives, on the other hand, are probably a little bit less likely to be gung-ho in favor of bush's platform due to his incredible runaway budget, bizarre immigration policies, and destruction of manufacturing infrastructure.

Where bush is probably hurting the most is among fickle independents. They would probably vote for him if they saw the slightest bit of honesty, consistency, or compassion from this misadministration. He has thus far been a huge disappointment in that respect.

This is all a meaningless lead-up to the October Surprise, of course. The level of national dissatisfaction will serve to determine the kind and quantity of Surprise we receive.

I am not planning any air travel this October.

[hippiechick]

11. I don't think the Libertarian wanna-bes are part of the base ....

The Patriot Act, Homeland Security and BFEE international interventionism are way, waaay too much government involvement for the Lib's.

They're as pissed as we are about it, but coming from the opposite
side of the fence. Dems somehow need to capitalize on that.


Rest of your analysis is spot-on, though :thumbsup:


:hippie:

[T Bone]

15. I know a lib who is ready to support a dem to get Bush out

He may bring one or two others with him. They will go for the lesser of two evils in their eyes. This year it will be the democrats. Although you know from knowing this guy I detect that libertarians really do have a streak of authoritarianism in them that they try hard to overcome.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

17. I do, too...he hates Junior with a passion....

...and had the same thoughts BEFORE the 2000 election. By the way, this guy lives in Alabama, as do I.

Even Junior's die-hard supporters that I know personally are starting to ask questions and have some real concerns about the little would-be Hitler.

[joeunderdog]

33. My lib uncle thinks Shrub is the most dangerous man on the planet.

My RW pal won't vote for him either.

[jab105]

22. Agreed...

I know a lib...he says that most were dead set against Iraq-nam...and they want * out just as much as we do...

Of course, then there are the Neil Boortz libertarians who just tow the Bushline through hell or high water...

[0rganism]

34. the "Neil Boortz libertarians" are exactly what I meant

They pretend to be libertarians, because it sounds "hip and independent", but they're authoritarian bushbots to the core. A lot of the freepers will claim to be libertarians, but they're as ideologically neo-republican as the RNC.

[pacifictiger]

30. regarding the patriot act etc

I haven't heard anyone else pick up on a statement Bill Clinton included in a speech in Switzerland the other day - "25 terrorist cells rolled up before 9/11, 27 cells after that"
Only a 2 cell difference!!!! seems that that is a huge indictment against the patriot act!

[daveskilt]

14. My republican friends.

Being in an MBA program I am surrounded by conservatives (the sell your own grandmother for a tax break kind) There are a few guys who proclaim bush as the greatest president since Reagan, but most of them, including people who campaigned for saxby chambliss, dont plan to vote at all unless there is a third party candidate like Pat buchanan or Ross perot. They are so pissed off about the massive spending and the new immigration proposal that even though they will still claim to be staunchly republican and still claim Bush is doing a good job overall they don't want to vote for him. He has pissed off the republican base so much that if a third right wing candidate entered the field they could make a good showing and let the dem win in a landslide. Any takers?

[DarkSim]

4. I question how legitimate this poll is....

[0007]

10. That's the question

[0rganism]

35. 1006 adults 18+, +/- 3%

It's just as legit as all those other polls about W's popularity.

Note: this poll apparently makes no "likely voter" distinction on the question of bush re-elect.

[DrBB]

5. The 3d-Party Principle

There's a thing in social measurement called "The 3d-Party Principle." It says that outcomes are not based so much on peoples' own opinions but on "What I think everyone else thinks." It's used in PR a lot. If I can give people the impression that "everyone thinks 'X,'" then 'X' is likely to prevail, even if everyone actually thinks 'Y' is what should happen.

The classic example of this: Asked whether there is too much sex or too much violence on TV, a majority said "too much violence." Asked how they thought everyone ELSE would respond to the question, they said "too much sex." So sex (though obviously this is changing now) tended to be more heavily censored than violence.

That's why this result should make us nervous:
But a Large Majority (78%) Says That it is Very Likely (40%) or Somewhat Likely (38%) That he Will Get a Second Term

Most people don't want Bush to be president. But most people think he will be anyway (i.e., they think everyone else thinks he should be). That number can change, of course, but the fact that it is so high is not good news.

[lostnfound]

6. A small part of THAT is the Black Box Voting issue

as well as a general sense that Bush will do whatever it takes to get elected, as we saw in 2000

Also, as we saw in 2000, what matters is electoral vote, and the Repubs have been rigging that through redistricting, etc.

[baby_bear]

9. Well then, DrBB, we must change what people think will be the outcome

I believe your premise may be correct, and not a few of us here, via three years of the media cheering this misadministration on, have come to feel fatalistic about the chances of replacing it in November 2004.

If that tone changes, and we get people to believe there is a possibility of something better, something not so pessimistic as Agent Orange Alert, then we might even get people voting, even dancing in the streets, rather than lurking under their beds.

I'm as guilty as anyone probably. I'm willing to dance though!

:party:

s_m

[DrBB]

12. Yup--this is why internal sniping is so bad

Anything that reinforces the impression that the Dems are in disarray, the Dems are backbiters and squabblers, the Dems don't think candidate X, Y, or Z can win--it's all bad. I don't know if there's any simple answer to this problem, but a lot of it has to do with the intangibles of candidate charisma--does this person SEEM like a winner?

God how I wish Dean had IMMEDIATELY turned "The Scream" into his own joke about himself (see Tom Tomorrow's blog on this). That's one way of doing it--you DON'T crawl back into your shell and get all defensive and apologetic except as the very last resort (ie, sex scandals). Much better ways to handle this stuff. Word is now that Dean is playing Scream mixes before his speeches. GOOD. Needed to do this earlier though. Jiu jitsu is the only way to handle this stuff. He has to SEEM like a winner to be one.

PR is an ugly business, but the other guys are playing it better than we are. We need to change that.

[wryter2000]

19. Letterman

Dean did a pretty funny bit on Letterman about the scream. As I recall, #7 was "less caffein."

[trogdor]

28. #10 was "switch to decaf."

I have it on tape.

[RainDog]

18. Cognitive therapy for an America abused by Bush

Lately I have had conversations with people who say that others they talk to think that Bush is horrible, but they don't think anyone will beat him.

I've begun saying that I am absolutely sure that Bush can be beaten, that he does not have broad support, that he did not have a majority or a mandate in the first election, but he has ignored the will of the people.

So I keep saying that he can be beaten.

And I do believe this, with the caveat that voting machines can make the difference.

This election is so crucial. I know I'm not the only one who will be watching closely for signs of vote tampering and I will gladly take to the streets of Washington D.C. to stop an imperial resident from assuming power yet again.

This election is so key, we must defeat Bush.

I think that conservatives who are not fundie cultists know this in their hearts, as well.

[baby_bear]

20. Good points, Raindog

Each of us needs to talk up our confidence in the American people's ability to turn this country around by first getting rid of the Bush administration.

I too am scared to death about the voting-machine rigging. And this time, I too would take to the streets, not sit in my living room in tears like in December 2000.

Confidence!

s_m

[no one in particular]

7. The other thread...

Another thread with this info

Newsweek Poll: Campaign 2004 (Bush 46% / Kerry 49%]

[Stuckinthebush]

8. I don't see that going down, either

That is a pretty solid 52%.

The numbers I'd like to see are state by state numbers using the same question. That way we could get an idea about which states are safe and which are on the edge.

[libview]

13. yup, and Deans the frontrunner

These polls mean less than nothing right now.

[colonel odis]

16. if this keeps up and i were a democratic candidate

i'd stay the hell off small planes.

i'd also watch very closely, those whom i surrounded myself with, literally speaking.

[LiberalFighter]

21. Just don't file a flight plan with passengers until last minute

File the flight plan but don't include the passenger name(s) until just before takeoff.

If it is legal don't include the passenger names or misspell the names.

Or fly out of friendly airports or reliable charters that have plenty of security.

[Gem]

23. Bush runs for election in 2004

I wish we could all refrain from the non-sequitur of re-elected when referring to Bush. Since he has never been elected president in the first place, he can't very well be re-elected. More accurately spoken would be to say "Bush invaded Iraq in an attempt to assure his election in 2004."

[trogdor]

29. the "non-sequitur" reassures us.

...that should the Chimp somehow win, it will be for the first and only time, thanks to what's left of the Constitution.

[LiberalFighter]

24. I was surprised yesterday at our Democratic Party's caucus...

to elect a new chair.

In the last 16 years I had never seen this person at any Democratic function until yesterday. I thought it had to be someone else when I saw her. She is in management at our factory plant.

The reason she gave for showing up was her being upset with George Bush and she wanted to do anything she could to get him out.

[LostInTheMaise]

25. Sure, all his base are going to vote democraric this year

And I'm the Maytag man with nothing to do but watch the meltdown.

I'm not buying it.

[daveskilt]

32. no but

a lot of republicans are no longer planning to vote at all.... see my post above.

[kentuck]

26. Look out ! When the rats start jumping ship....

It's liable to flip on its side and sink...

[AlinPA]

31. When the media gears up to smash the Dem candidate and

with several hundred million $, Rove and the broadcast media will try to put the hurt on our candidate with the most negative ads we have ever seen. But think about PA again, where negative ads were rejected by voters in recent elections. With the media against us, we are going to depend on ground work, just like the last time.

[Claire Beth]

36. drip....drip...drip....

I hope dubya continues to decline in the polls. I fear they have some "october surprise" prepared.