Global warming will plunge Britain into new ice age 'within decades'

[Stephanie]

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/environment/story.jsp?story=484490

Global warming will plunge Britain into new ice age 'within decades'
By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor
25 January 2004

Britain is likely to be plunged into an ice age within our lifetime by global warming, new research suggests.

A study, which is being taken seriously by top government scientists, has uncovered a change "of remarkable amplitude" in the circulation of the waters of the North Atlantic.

Similar events in pre-history are known to have caused sudden "flips" of the climate, bringing ice ages to northern Europe within a few decades. The development - described as "the largest and most dramatic oceanic change ever measured in the era of modern instruments", by the US Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, which led the research - threatens to turn off the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe's weather mild.

If that happens, Britain and northern Europe are expected to switch abruptly to the climate of Labrador - which is on the same latitude - bringing a nightmare scenario where farmland turns to tundra and winter temperatures drop below -20C. The much-heralded cold snap predicted for the coming week would seem balmy by comparison. <more>

no words.

[onebigbadwulf]

1. I get it now

Republicans are trying to force Europe into the ice age so America will have the monopoly on food.

[kskiska]

2. Drudge really played up Al Gore's speaking on global warming

on a cold day. Will he post this?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

3. With the Gulf Stream hugging the U. S. coastline, I wonder how the loss...

...of that ocean current will affect the weather in the U.S., particularly along the East Coast. It's bound to affect wind/steering currents as well.

[midnight armadillo]

16. 10 deg drop in avg temps

Harbors and navigable rivers in the northeast would freeze...

[reprobate]

24. The south will heat and the north will cool

Without the gulf stream feeding the atlantic current--which is the moderating force for the whole north atlantic--all the land masses which the current effects will seek their natural temps.

[GreenGreenLimaBean]

52. Only those nasty Blue States will suffer

The red ones will get hotter.

[Gingersnap]

4. this is deeply disheartening...

Just like Peak Oil, we've ignored these problems (that we're creating) for too long for any last minute fixes.

Reading things like this make me glad I chose never to have children.

[arcos]

6. I agree wholeheartly...

Everything will happen at once... new ice age, peak oil, nuclear war (http://www.hipakistan.com/en/detail.php?newsId=en52006&F_catID=&f_type=source), overpopulation... and even things we don't control like Yellowstone's overdue explosion :P.

The next 15 years are going to be very interesting, and I'm glad I won't be having any children either.

[loftycity]

17. Did anyone read "Waking up in Time" by Peter Russell?

Whole book based on Critical Mass. He's a Physicist and has done the nice thing for all interested. He has published his books on line so you can read them.
He's very interesting...wish Moyers's would have him on "Now."
www.peterrussell.com

[Wwagsthedog]

5. This is very facinating, not to mention scary

The following link, discussed last month, backs up the premise of the Independent column. Are things happening faster than than anyone can control?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=275562

[demconfive]

7. I always wondered ....

...what it would be like to live in historically monumental times.

Well, now I'll find out. I can't say I'm not a bit curious. I do have a feeling of dread in the pit of my stomach,though.

[demdave]

10. We have the best seat for the end of the current times.....

You go get the popcorn and I will chill the beers.

[demconfive]

12. Get english beers...

...They'll already be chilled.

[demdave]

13. Then Mackeson Triple XXX Stout it is.

[Dirk39]

8. I'm aware of all these dirty tricks around to convert me to...

religion, again. But this is the best, so far.
Some nice gothic novels and music will follow, instead of the mediocre Brit-Pop we were exposed to during the last years?
Hello from Germany,
Dirk

[cprise]

9. Brought to you by...

[Lorien]

11. Our voluntary wars are doing a good job

of keeping the focus elsewhere. Ask most liberals what their top five issues are, and "the environment" rarely makes the list any more. Our very survival depends on taking action NOW, but instead, we turn into masses of Ostriches. I, too, am glad I've had no children.

[Dirk39]

14. You're so right...

I'm one of those, who doesn't care much about the environment, too. I mostly consider this to be a kind of middle class issue, only. But you're simply right. I just remember, reading an interview with a former german minister for the environment, Klaus Toepfer. He is a conservative and during his time as a minister for the environment, he stood against everything, the greens and environment-groups were standing for.

Just a few years after leaving his office, and this is about 15 years ago, he admitted that most politicians have surrendered this issue somehow. It's allready too late, anyway.
The way, Lobby groups hired "scientists" to prove that global warming isn't an issue at all and succeded is one of the most cynical events during the last decades. And it hits poor countries much more than us or Great Britain. It's allready there.
Just take Peru as an example:
http://www.cipotato.org/news/pressreleases/english/global_warming.htm

Hello from Germany,
Dirk

[FlaGranny]

47. The United States gets a large portion of

it's winter supply of vegetables and fruits from Peru. If farming in Peru suffers, it could cause, if not food shortages, then greatly increased costs for fresh vegetables.

[Emillereid]

15. I've been reading about this phenomena for several years --

it should also affect northern parts of North American and the eastern seaboard too. Ice is melting all over the North Atlantic making the waters much fresher. A friend of mine in Iceland says the meltdown is happening right before their eyes. Think of it this way, the first life on earth finally poisoned themselves with their waste product -- oxygen, which made life possible for our kind. We seem hell bent on polluting ourselves out of existence. Just hope the next path life takes leads to real intelligence.

[jpak]

42. I've visited alpine glaciers in Canada, New Zealand and Antarctica

They are ALL undergoing rapid melting.

This study should be a wake-up call for the entire planet.

I'm speechless...

[JohnOneillsMemory]

18. Fuck Bush and the war horse of the apocalypse he rode in on. n/t

[Piperay]

19. But but but

chimp and his gang say that there is no such thing as global warming so how can this be true. :shrug: *SARCASM*

[slor]

20. This is why...

we must win the election. This is why when I hear that we need to get off the oil and implement renewable energy over the next 20 years I get angry. Clinton and Gore should have pushed this on a much grander scale! We need to implement Solar/Wind power as soon as this jerk is fired!

[gristy]

22. I just hope it isn't too late...

:( I too have been reading about this predicted gulf stream shutdown for some time. From what I can tell from the snippet posted, Woods Hole seems to have measured what they think is a precursor to this event, if not the event itself. Can't get to the independent web site right now...

[SidDithers]

21. Global Warming is such a bad name for this....

I wish the term had never been used. I much prefer Climate Change to describe the effect that we're having on the atmosphere and weather patterns. With Climate Change, people might realize that we're talking about serious changes to the relatively stable weather we're used to, with far mor extreme conditions - cold, hot, storms - than normal.

I'd hardly describe Labrador as similar to an ice age, tho.

Sid

[slor]

23. I agree and we should call it...

ELE Climate Change. Elimination Level Event. This is the real terror this world is facing, and you hear those right-wing anti-environ fools
saying this does not exist. Well if you call it this you might perk up some ears on the sheeple. And yes, I did watch "Deep Impact" last night. We have to turn this whole argument around on environmental issues. Re-Frame the argument if you will, we need to hire that guy from the Buzzflash article that talked about how the rethugs "frame" their crap and how we can do it best! If people get scared so be it, they need to be. We can tie in all the issues with the food supply too, from mad cow, to the arsenic in the chickens, to the mercury in the fish! That will get their attention. Those that belittle the environment have set the stage for all these problems!

[ewagner]

33. thanks for that post

I agree that the net effect is more extremes. From all that I've learned (a meteorologist in the family) this seems to be the case. When the subject is framed in the "global warming" term, it becomes counter-intituitive because the extremes are both warmer and colder.

[reprobate]

25. There is one bright spot. If you can call it that.

The one bright spot is that bush will be know throughout the world and for whatever generations will be left on earth as "The Great Depopulater."

And if there are survivers the corporation, which is responsible for this by taking over gov't, will be unwelcome the world over.

[Fla_Dem]

26. So is the term "Global Warming"

a really accurate assesment of what is happening? Sounds to me like the northern lattitudes will be getting much, much colder.

[Minstrel Boy]

29. The Gulf Stream is threatened in large part by the

influx of fresh water into the North Atlantic by melted polar ice, so yes, if Europe's climate control is lost it will be on account of global warming.

[treepig]

30. right, so that means that only europe will be impacted

not northern latitudes in general (they will mostly continue to warm).

that's because if all northern areas plunged into an ice age, the influx of fresh water into the north atlantic would slow, and the gulf stream would re-start (there are indications from the past that it could indeed restart on it's own), thereby thwarting the european "ice age."

further, the prediction of an "ice age" in europe may involve just a bit of hyperbole. instead, the climate will probably just cool to comparable climates in north america, which might be bad enough by the way (think of london with edmonton's climate).

[Muddleoftheroad]

31. Ice age

In the 1970s, scientists widely predicted that we were in an ice age. Then its warming. Now a climate event.

I have no doubt that major serious change is afoot. But their credibility isn't the best. I honestly don't think they know exactly what is happening.

[Kitsune]

41. We are in an Ice Age

According to my prof for Environmental Science, if there aren't palm trees growing in Alaska then we're in an Ice Age. What are popularly called 'Ice Ages' are really Glacial Maximums.

It's much more complicated than that, but it was two years ago and I'm a History major, so you get the 25 cent version. :P

[jpak]

44. They know exactly why it's happening.

Richard A. Kerr (2001) It's Official: Humans Are Behind Most of Global Warming. Science Vol. 26: pp 291: 566

T. P. Barnett, D. W. Pierce, R. Schnur (2001) Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change in the World's Oceans. Science Vol. 292: pp 270-274

S. Levitus, J. I. Antonov, J. Wang, T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, and A. J. Broccoli (2001) Anthropogenic Warming of Earth's Climate System. Science Vol. 292: pp 267-270

J. E. Harries, H. E. Brindley, P. J. Sagoo, R. J. Bantges (2001) Increases in greenhouse forcing inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997. Nature Vol. 410 pp 355 - 357

There is no debate about the science.

[modrepub]

45. I remember

all the Ice Age talk of the 70s, the blizzards and cold winter (I was in elementary school then). I remember reading not to long ago that this period of cool weather observed in the US during the 70s was the result of a pool of melt-water circulating in the North Atlantic. This would fit into this theory. I can't see this lasting "too long" because the freshwater lens would not be resupplied and would eventually disperse. Not to say this is insignificant since a decade of abnormal weather in the northern hemisphere would have a huge economic impact.

BTY, this was a topic this morning on Coast to Coast. Sorry, I often drive real early in the morning and can't help but tune in from time to time to listen to those UFO nuts...

[Spentastic]

32. Interesting

I've read contrary research suggesting that restart is considerably more difficult than curtailment. What's your source?

[treepig]

38. my source is "The Definitive Journal of Non-Contrary Research"

actually, i don'the exact reference at my fingertips - and i won't dispute the relative difficulty of curtailment v. re-start (in fact, i've not seen a good analysis of this topic - if you happen to have a relevant citation handy, i'd be interested in that for sure)

[Fovea]

43. All of these analysis are simplistic

Other factors not mentioned here-

Change in planetary albedo.
Change in pacific currents.
Change in oceanic flora/fauna changing atmospheric
content.
Change in jet stream, with attendant change in
hemispheric weather patterns...

When it comes to weather, you cannot disconnect
regions from the global system of energy balance,
carbon, nitrogen cycles, oceanic circulatory systems.

It is as though one assumed that a severe heart attack will have
no effect on your brain or kidneys.

It is this simple. If humans do not cooperate with the planet, the planet will stop cooperating with them.

[FlaGranny]

48. No, the whole earth will be affected.

You see, the great stream of water we call the Gulf Stream encircles the entire globe and modulates the weather the world over. When it stops, severe, unpredictable, extreme weather everywhere, not just northern Europe.

[hatrack]

34. "Climate Destabilization" probably a better phrase

Kind of unwieldy, though.

[treepig]

27. more information

here: http://williamcalvin.com/1990s/1998AtlanticClimate.htm

[harper]

35. Any one who hasn't read this article in Atlantic Monthly

provided by the above link, go read it now. Fascinating and frightening stuff.

[CaptainClark23]

40. Off-topic observation

"Harper" promoting "Atlantic Monthly"?

the end of days is surely upon us! ;-)

[chelaque liberal]

28. Climate Change is much more of a WMD

than anything * claims Saddam had hidden. The US, which creates 25% of the earth's pollution is the world's worst terrorist.

[Lorien]

37. Agreed

and what's more, we're the ones most capable of changing (because of our wealth and innovation), yet we are also the most resistant to change (rampant greed and stupidity).

We MUST make this a major issue again, because it will BECOME THE issue in the near future, like it or not.

[Neshanic]

36. There was a PBS show on this and it explained it very well.

They showed the way the gulf stream wraps around in a huge conveyor belt that makes our climate what it is and the effects of non-salt water disrupting it. This is bad.

[CaptainClark23]

39. wanna really lose some sleep?

Try "The Coming Global Superstorm" by Art Bell and Whitley Streiber (no alien communions in this one).

The books website "http://globalsuperstorm.com" had some great resources and materials on the subject. My impression is that they have taken all the worst case scenarios for global warming and climate inversion to make up the book, but there's enough in there to take seriously.

Sadly, the site is now down, I suspect due to a movie being released this spring based on the book. The studio I'm sure wants to control web presence of the title.

In the interim, I would recommend the Atlantic article by William Calvin, linked above.

In the meantime, watch the vacation schedules of your local weather forecasters. If they all take unplanned vacations in the tropical climes, run.

And for those of you that can't shake the feeling of owning front row seats to cataclysm...I hear ya....

[Fovea]

46. PLEASE Read This

To see how climate destabilization will affect
as area quite far from the ocean.

Read down to the latter half of the page, and follow the climate data links.

http://65.64.114.185/7leveesReport/7leveesMeetingPersonalResponse.htm

And if you write the Army Corps, realize that in this fight, they appear to be wearing the white hats.

[Stephanie]

49. This story has me absolutely terrified

I'm wavering between trying to figure out where I could relocate to that might still be safe in the future - and jumping off the George Washington Bridge. I am truly losing hope for the planet. Is there any?

[CaptainClark23]

50. Yes Stephanie, there is hope

We don't know which, if any, of these numberless cataclysms will come to pass, or when.

Safety is a relative term. You could hie yourself to seclusion, calculating all odds for your survival..then trip on a rock on bust your head open and die.

Being prepared is a good thing, but most important is a mental preparation for the fact that things might turn south in a big way. You need to be prepared so that if things do get nasty, you can spend your time reacting calmly and wisely, instead of having to come to grips with the fact that its all gone so shitty 'all of a sudden'.

And rule No. One (ask anybody!): DON'T PANIC.

Go for a walk by the GWB and admire the scenery instead (nice ice floes today on the Hudson)

[Stephanie]

53. You're sweet - thanks.

But it's too damn COLD to walk along the Hudson today!

[reprobate]

54. Rule 2: Always carry a clean towel.

[CaptainClark23]

55. Of course!

Bad of me to omit that gem of preparedness. You are of course, correct.

No joke, I've been laughed at for carrying a small towel rolled up in my briefcase. On 9.11 I was downtown and it served me in good stead throughout the afternoon, moistened in water and wrapped about my face to breathe through.

[Stephanie]

57. A small towel?

The liberal answer to duct tape?

[MacCovern]

56. Cheer Up - Look at these predictions from 1970

"If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder by the year 2000...This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age." Kenneth E.F. Watt on air pollution and global cooling, Earth Day 1970.

"In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish." Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day 1970

"In a decade, America's mighty rivers will have reached the boiling point." Edwin Newman, Earth Day 1970

All of these bogus predictions scared the crap out of me when I was a kid and back then I didn't know if I should have been more scared of the coming ice age, all the dead fish in the sea, or rivers that would eat your skin right off your body.

One day Britain will face another ice age, but it won't be in our lifetime.

[yellowcanine]

51. Rush will no doubt entertain the dittoheads with this.

"How can global warming cause an ice age?" I can hear him ranting already. Remember how the wingnuts made such a big deal of the fact that Gore was talking about global warming on the coldest day of the year in New York City? As if one had anything to do with the other. Why bother trying to understand complexity when a simple minded answer will do?