New Hampshire Exit Polls Present Warning Signs for President Bush*

[kskiska]

President Bush is paying heed not only to the criticism from his Democratic rivals but the dissatisfaction among independent voters who will play a crucial role in New Hampshire and other battleground states this November.

The president's trip to the Granite State Thursday comes after months in which the Democratic hopefuls charged through New Hampshire assailing his policies, from his tax cuts to handling of postwar Iraq to education.

In Tuesday's primary, independent voters played a major role, making up almost half -- 45 percent -- of New Hampshire's record Democratic primary turnout of about 200,000. Seven in 10 independents who voted in the primary said the nation's economy is not in good shape, according to an exit poll conducted for The Associated Press and television networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

Almost nine in 10 said they were worried about the direction of the nation's economy in the next few years. Eight in 10 said the Bush tax cuts should be canceled altogether or only for the wealthy. The views about the economy of independents who voted in the Democratic primary were almost as sour as those of Democratic voters.

more…
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/01/28/politics1705EST0743.DTL

[capriccio]

1. Who are these people?

Not the same ones who were manipulated by the media whores, the corporate elite, and skull & bones to vote for Kerry, I hope.

[joeunderdog]

11. Name ONE group Chimp hasn't offended. (Asie from the Wealthy)

Otherwise, he's pissed off the Conservatives, the Democrats, the blacks, women, his Intelligence community, OT workers, working class people, Europeans, Asians, Canada, Mexico......

I've been saying all along that the media polls are lying to promote a false sense of unity for Chimp. The real polls bear this out.

He has overplayed his hand. His brash hubris and arrogant style will be his undoing.

[dbt]

12. And remember how Clinton captalized on similar (simian?) behavior

back in the Bush I era? All he had to do was reach out to ALL those groups that Poppy had alienated to land his Hillbilly ass in the White House (Perot notwithstanding)!

:evilgrin:
dbt

[bluestateguy]

2. NH is winnable

Al Gore won 266,000 votes in 2000 in NH and we generated a turnout in the primary of 219,000. The Democratic base may not have united around a candidate, but they turned out. The Nader vote, which cost Gore in NH, will likely be lower this year. New Hampshire is winnable in 2004.

[markses]

4. NH 2000 turnouts

Total Democratic Votes 2000

Bradley – 69993
Gore – 76681

Total – 146674

Total Republican Votes 2000

Bauer – 1656
Bush – 72262
Forbes – 30197
Keyes – 15196
McCain – 115490
Other – 155

Total – 234,956

Total Combined: 381,360

President

Bush – 273135
Gore – 265853
Nader – 22156
Brown – 2723
Buchanan – 2603
Phillips – 326

Total – 566,796

[Malva Zebrina]

14. all the Naderites I know realize they MUST get Bush out

and cannot split the vote, much as they would like to. They realize it is too crucial this time around.

[markses]

3. Not about 200,000...about 220,000

217,000 is closest w/o going over.

[JoFerret]

5. His goose can be cooked

Start to believe it and work for it.

[Fovea]

6. I have been predicting that things would unzip for Bush

in June and July.

I now admit that I may have been wrong. I now suspect
that he will be completely unelectable long before then.
I would be surprised if he makes it to April with an intact candidacy.

It now appears that Ashcroft recused himself because Cheney is going down in an indefensible way.
I think it may be Cheney as well as Rove on Plame.
Something horrible is happening, and Karl will also go before Dubya makes his LBJ speech. Bush will have to
declare his non candidacy before he pardons much of his cabinet, in what might be called a lame duck swan song. The deal is that Giuliani will have to support the pardons, and pardon *, in turn.

George does not have the strength to run the kind of campaign he is going to get with half the media turning and all the Dems whacking his knees with bats, and the economy tanking with no oil coming from Iraq
and a fresh campaign in Pakistan (which I hereby dub Operation Charlie Foxtrot) so horribly maintained that Hunter S. Thompson will be embedded for the color commentary.

Look for Giuliani or McCain to be top of the pachyderm ticket this fall.
Look for Rudy or John to go down in flames. Sure, they will generate a lot of excitement, but they will not get a walk on Bush's record. That is the other edge of the Republican sword oath, you can't plead innocence when your toga is spattered with the same blood that brought down Dubya.

Now let me ask an obvious question--

Bush Exploration, Arbusto, Harken, Spectrum 7...
Why is it we expected Dubya *not* to run America into a highway pylon at high speed? Was there a precident for him not crashing his business in some previous endevor? What made us think it would be otherwise when he was captaining the ship of state? I mena, you saw the movie "Titanic," right? And let's face it, with his jaunty flight suit and strategic sock initiative, George was King of the World...

New Hampshire is a freakin nightmare for the Pubs, and even Novak has to admit that now. The swingin independents are voting "Anyone but Bush" by a wide margin. Say goodnight Karl.

[TexasProgressive]

8. Great post

That's beautiful. I hope you're right on every point.

[Malva Zebrina]

15. I so hope you are right

[gate of the sun]

7. does that mean we can expect another

"terroist" action by our government in the near future....if they are serious about their agenda expect one unless one of our illustrious candidates can supply what they want. They aren't going down without a fight and that's my opinon.....for what it's worth.

[truthisfreedom]

9. so what kind of voting machines do they have in NH?

anyone know?

[Thoth]

10. NH voting

For the small towns, it's mostly hand counted paper ballots or those old fashioned pull lever machines. For the larger cities, it's mostly
the optic scan type of machine, in which you feed your paper ballot (with choices blackened out) into the machine. I do not believe there are any places using the purely touch screen machines, though I could be wrong.

[remfan]

13. Then expect a lot of hot air policies aimed at Independents to be

trotted out in the coming weeks. Expect a heavy dose of smoke to be blown up the country's ass, and be on the lookout for mirrors passing themselves off as policy.

[catmandu57]

16. We get our turn Tuesday

I hope we send the same message as NH sent, the chimps* goose is cooked and by this summer it'll be a crispy black. Hopefully, the party willo find someone to run for the Senate so we can get rid of that damn whiskey drunk we have now, and it's buddy in 06.