GDP weaker than expected (4th Qtr half of 3rd Qtr)

[RamboLiberal]

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/30/news/economy/gdp/index.htm?cnn=yes

The U.S. economy followed up a strong third quarter of 2003 with another healthy growth rate in the fourth quarter, the government said Friday, but the pace fell short of Wall Street estimates as consumer spending slowed more than expected.

Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, grew at a 4 percent annualized rate in the quarter after growing at an 8.2 percent pace in the third, the Commerce Department reported.

Economists, on average, expected GDP growth of 5 percent, according to Briefing.com. Given a recovery in U.S. exports, and expected strength in inventory rebuilding and government spending, some economists had hoped for a growth rate as high as 6 percent.

"This reflects a more subdued consumer, given that the pace of refinancing and stimulus eased off a bit in the fourth quarter," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors. "Moving forward, it tells us that this economy is recovering at a nice but unrobust pace."

In all of 2003, GDP rose at a pace of 3.1 percent, compared with 2.2 percent in 2002.

[West Coast Democrat]

1. AP: Economic Growth Report Pulls Down Dow 49

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=530&e=2&u=/ap/20040130/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

NEW YORK - Stocks were mostly lower Friday after a new government report cast more doubt on the pace of the nation's economic recovery.


In late morning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 48.66, or 0.5 percent, at 10,461.63. Broader stock indicators were narrowly mixed. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 4.17, or 0.4 percent, at 1,129.94, and the Nasdaq composite index was up 0.65, or 0.03 percent, at 2,068.88.


While the 4 percent rise in the gross domestic product for the fourth quarter shows an economy continuing to grow, it represented a slowdown from the 8.2 percent growth in the third quarter. More significantly, it was lower than the 4.8 percent growth analysts expected.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. the long and short of it

this economy is in trouble

Yet, they releaseed this BEFORE the market closed and BEFORE the weekend news cycle took fully over... not their usual MO

[area51]

3. economy

Anthony Chan said (paraphrased):

"... the economy is recovering at a nice pace."

I just "love" how rtwing economists don't take lack of job creation into account. Those of us who are unemployed are fscked, & those who are still employed are fscked if they lose their jobs.

[ProfessorGAC]

5. He's A Fool!

Not only is he not taking UE into account, he's ignoring the fact that the "growth" is being propagated by deficit spending. How convenient it must be to have "earned" a Ph.D. in economics without having to actually understand economics.
The Professor

[ProfessorGAC]

4. And Now. . .

. . .almost completely sustained by gov't spending of borrowed funds. ALMOST COMPLETELY! In other words, without the budget deficit, there would be NO GROWTH! Anyone who doubts this should get the most recent 4Q03 data off the SAUS database. It's a plain as day that there's no sustainable economic growth. Just a temporary blip extrapolated into yearlong projections.

Anyone who is independent, knows the first thing about statistics, and anything about economics should know that all the projections were bogus, unidimensional conclusions that were trumpeted for propaganda purposes. They have no basis in fact.
The Professor

[a_random_joel]

7. I just got a raise!!!

I maxed out all my credit cards, and took a second on my house.

This is the equivalent logic at work here.

Good thing my wife is better at economics than I am, and she's not even a PHD.

[Yavin4]

8. It's Enron All Over Again

This is why I keep saying that we're headed for an economic collapse. Collapses happen when people fail to distinguish between debt and equity. All that we've done since Bush has been president is run up debt on the consumer and government levels, and now we're calling that Bush's strong economic growth.

[Just Me]

11. Apparently they are covering up a train wreck in the making,...

,...in hopes of holding the truth at bay long enough for our "freon neocons" to get re-elected and finish the job of finishing off this country.

[iam]

6. So much

for Govt spending being generally bad for the economy. A dollar spent is a dollar spent whether it is by a citizen or a bureaucrat.

[The_Casual_Observer]

9. I doubt that this news will be heralded like last quarters

was. No caps, no headlines, no bush boasts.

[snippy]

10. 4% was much lower than what the supply siders were forecasting.

The consensus forecast was for growth of either 4.8% or 5% depending on whose number you looked at. But the supply siders were forecasting well over 6%.

[The_Casual_Observer]

12. It was clear in late December already

that the news wasn't going to be "good". Last time there was a big run up in the press before the 8% was announced, like they couldn't keep the secret. This time it has been very quiet all month, they all knew that the numbers looked shitty, but didn't want to prolong the pain. Overall, the year was shitty too, and makes the stock market look fairly oversold right now.

[proud patriot]

13. Didn't * just say yesterday "there's excitement in the economy"

sorry bush , but I do not find this exciting
in fact using that word rather disgusts me

[The_Casual_Observer]

14. "excitement in the economy"

Bush always struggles painfully to find the appropriate words when he is unscripted. However, he demonstrates time and again that this is a fruitless endeavor, due to the fact that he is so stupid.

[Trainman91765DB]

15. 4% GDP growth is nothing to sneeze at

Out of Clinton's 32 quarters in office the GDP only beat 4% 14 of those quarters.

http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/TableView.asp#Mid

[The_Casual_Observer]

16. After the big 8% with the brass band, aaaaahhhh choooooo

[mth44sc]

17. Which would be 12 more times than w

And the 22 million jobs gains - reduced poverty - reduction in welfare rolls - income increases across all economic levels - which makes w's 2 million plus job losses - increase in poverty and increase in folks neading health care seem closer to Hoover than to properity.