look at the map of the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. Through this narrow waterway, only 34 km wide, pass the ships that carry between a fifth and a third of the world’s oil, including that from Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.
The inevitable reaction to the bombing of Iran will be the blocking of this strait. Iran dominates the whole length of the strait. They can seal it hermetically with their missiles and artillery, both land based and naval. If that happens, the price of oil will skyrocket — far beyond the $200 per-barrel that pessimists dread now. That will cause a chain reaction: A worldwide depression, the collapse of whole industries and a catastrophic rise in unemployment in America, Europe and Japan.
In order to avert this danger, the Americans would need to conquer parts of Iran — perhaps the whole of this large country. The US does not have at its disposal even a small part of the forces they would need. The mighty American Navy is menacing Iran — but the moment the strait is closed, it will itself resemble those model ships in bottles. Perhaps it is this danger that made the navy chiefs extricate the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln from the Gulf this week.
http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=111889&d=17&m=7&y=2008