spread thin (except for Alberta), so the NDP can win more seats than the Conservatives with a lower percentage popular vote.
Even though the Liberals stand at 49%, the poll shows considerable dissatisfaction with their performance, which suggests their support is potentially soft. And since the likelihood of anything but a Liberal re-election is extremely remote, "social liberals" who have been frozen out by Martin may be inclined to consider a vote for the NDP a safe way of registering disapproval for his moving the government to the right. Perhaps enough for minority rule, which historically has given Canada its most progressive governments.
I think once the election is called and Martin is really forced to perform in the spotlight, particularly a debate, the numbers will quickly move in the NDP's favour, putting us around 20%-25% by election day. Jack Layton will be a much more able campaigner than either Martin or Harper/Stronach/Clement, and the media will not be able to - nor want to - ignore him, as it decided with Alexa McDonough.
On edit:
"Across English Canada, Liberals had 51% support, versus 24% for the Conservatives and 20% for the NDP." I hadn't noticed this on first read, and it's a very encouraging result for the NDP. It equals the NDP's historic election high from 1988, more than doubles its popular vote of 2000 and - given the Liberal numbers in Quebec would virtually rout the BQ, and the fact that the NDP's distribution of support is more favourable than the Conservatives - would likely be enough for the NDP to capture official opposition status.
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