Signs of strong support for John Kerry among Catholic voters could mean big trouble ahead for George Bush, say Albert Scardino and John Scardino
The religious war that is of most concern to George Bush these days has nothing to do with Wahabi, Shia or Sunni Muslims.
It involves Roman Catholics, and particularly those in the five swing states of Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Judging by the enthusiasm that Catholics are showing for Senator John Kerry, Mr Bush may be in greater jeopardy than he ever expected.
Where his father lost the Catholic vote to Bill Clinton by 16 percentage points, Mr Bush won it against Al Gore by three points, according to exit polls on election day 2000. That gave him enough states for Florida to make a difference.
So long as the Democrats were tainted with the sex scandals of the Clinton White House, the Republicans could provide comfort and sustenance in a party led by a Sunday school teacher given to daily prayer breakfasts. It would be tougher to woo Catholics away from a war hero with an Irish name married to a Latin widow born in Africa.
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Around one third of the New Hampshire population identifies itself as Catholic, and they identified strongly with Mr Kerry. He won nearly as many Catholic votes as the seven other candidates combined. The more people attended church, the more strongly they preferred him.
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/story/0,13918,1137835,00.html