on this "New World Order". Alas, I am a dinosaur. Thanks to rapier for this link.
http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.aspsnip>
The dirty little secret about the American economy today (that no central banker dare acknowledge publicly) is that there is no anti-inflation constituency left within the United States. There cannot be, given the preposterously high levels of debt, which makes the only socially acceptable policy response at this stage a deliberate policy of debt confiscating inflation. The ongoing weakness of the dollar over the past 2 years stems from the growing realisation that the United States cannot continue to be the source of global demand indefinitely, so long as its economic imbalances—from budget and trade deficits to record levels of private debt—remain firmly entrenched. Given the comparatively poor America social welfare safety net (in contrast to its Euroland counterparts), and its continued high levels of immigration, the political economy imperatives of the United States invariably push monetary and financial officials in the direction of growth, employment and higher inflation. There is no savings constituency to speak of any longer which might oppose this policy (at least in an electoral sense).
This position stands in marked contrast to the nations of the euro bloc, which helps to explain the ECB’s apparent obstinacy in refusing to cut rates further. In Euroland, there remains widespread opposition to liberalised immigration, despite adverse demographic trends in Western Europe and the increased social welfare burdens of an ageing population. Just last week, Sweden announced that it was going to take a tougher approach toward workers from the new European Union member states because it was worried about the impact on its generous welfare system. The announcement follows recent decisions in neighbouring Denmark and in the Netherlands to keep in place some restrictions on migrant workers from Poland and most of the other nine states joining the EU on May 1st of this year. There has also been widespread populist backlash throughout the continent against a perceived rising tide of illegal immigration and “bogus” asylum seekers.
The consequence of this reluctance to accept young newcomers into Western Europe is an ageing electorate, which has a natural predisposition to save. Consider the contrast: over the course of the 1990s, the US household saving rate fell from a peak of 8.7 per cent of disposable income to a low of 2.3 per cent in 2001, before rising very modestly to an estimate of 4.6 per cent last year. In the UK, it fell from 11.4 per cent to 4.3 per cent in 2000, before rising to 5.5 per cent last year. But French and German household savings rates hardly changed: they remained above 10 per cent in virtually every year. And savers are, in a general sense, deflation beneficiaries.
In contrast to the US, therefore, an ageing household sector with relative high savings rates in the core Euroland countries biases policy making toward greater anti-inflationary measures, which in turn has reinforced the ECB’s legislated mandate of price stability.
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From a currency perspective, therefore, these divergent political imperatives imply that the dollar’s recent recovery against the euro is likely to prove ephemeral.
What about Asia? The informed consensus response to the Bank of Japan’s announcement of its unprecedented dollar support operations was as follows:
“The dollar didn't manage to strengthen this month against the yen despite the amount of dollars the Bank of Japan bought,” Harriett Richmond, who manages $50 billion as head of currency management at J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management in London, said in a televised interview with Bloomberg News. “It was an extremely large number and this is unsustainable.”
Ms Richmond seems to forget that in a fiat currency system, any such constraint faced by a central bank is ultimately illusory. The BoJ is the monopoly supplier of yen. As long as private agents are willing to accept yen credits to their bank accounts, there is little besides pure accounting formalities between MoF and the BoJ that prevents the BoJ from creating and selling all the yen it desires in foreign exchange markets. There is simply no limit to the BoJ's ability to create its own fiat currency and sell it. Therefore, to state BoJ sales of yen are "extremely large" and "unsustainable" is to ignore the very nature of virtually unlimited money creation available not only to the BoJ, but to any central bank running a fiat currency.
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