U.S. Plan to Transfer Power In Iraq May Shift Drastically

[kskiska]

UNITED NATIONS, Feb. 5 -- The U.S. plan to hand over power in Iraq is increasingly likely to undergo major changes rather than merely "refinements," because of increasing skepticism about the June 30 deadline for creating a provisional government and erosion of support for the proposal to use caucuses to select it, according to senior U.S. and U.N. officials.

The Bush administration still publicly clings to its transition plan, but a U.N. team scheduled to arrive in Iraq as early as Friday has been given a free hand to present its own blueprint for the country's political transition if it determines elections cannot be held by June in Iraq, U.S. and U.N. officials say.

(snip)

One option is extending the June 30 deadline for installing an Iraqi government to allow enough time for the direct elections demanded by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Iraq's leading cleric. There is already talk about a hypothetical extension to Jan. 1, 2005.

This could mean that the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority would stay longer, which could carry political costs for President Bush in an election year and anger Iraqis who want an end to foreign occupation, U.S. officials concede.

more…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17262-2004Feb5.html

[truthspeaker]

1. It may shift even more when the Iraqis SEIZE power

as is their right as a sovereign nation, rather than waiting for an illegal occupying force to "give" it to them.

[Frances]

2. But if one group seizes power, then I would predict

a civil war. There are 3 major groups there who are antagonistic toward each other. I don't know how many factions there are within those groups.

[krkaufman]

9. Turkey

And don't forget Iraq's neighbor to the northwest, Turkey. If the Iraqi Kurds take a stand, and fight for an independent Kurdish region, Turkey is likely to invade. They've said it couldn't be allowed to stand because it would then destabilize the Kurdish sections of Turkey.

[lastknowngood]

3. unless the CIA gets a better shot

at the Ayatollah

[Leilani]

4. Wes Clark has said all along

that this a bogus date, used for political reasons.

[Barrett808]

5. So, here's a brief assessment of the current situation

The insurgency is openly handing out pamphlets detailing its own "plan to transfer power" after the imminent withdrawal of US forces;

Putting the lie to all official pronouncements, the rate of US casualties has remained rock-solid since May, recently worsening in January;

Ayatollah Sistani has the US by the stones and is squeezing, mailed fist firmly in velvet glove;

Today, Sistani survived an assassination attempt, which is curiously denied by SCIRI;

The assassination attempt comes four days after twin suicide bombings in Irbil -- targeting Kurdish political parties -- killed and injured upward of 300;

The police and ICDC, which the US is relying on take over counterinsurgency duties, are woefully undersupplied, undertrained, and vulnerable;

Power, water, and fuel are, nine months after "Mission Accomplished," still chronically unreliable and intermittent.

Now add this little gem to the pile. How does that look?

[Oilwellian]

6. Let me guess...

a timebomb? It sounds like the civil war has already begun and our kids over there are sitting ducks. I fear things are about to get worse in Iraq.

[daleo]

7. Bushco will stay on through the U.S. election

Withdrawing is unlikely:

- it would risk control of the oil, even if they did plan to come back in force after November 2004.

- the uncertainty of what would happen after U.S. forces leave is too great (civil war, a fundamentalist takeover, some revival of Saddam or a Saddam clone beyond U.S. control), better to take the political cost of a 100 or so dead soldiers.

- it would make the whole war seem pointless to many who still support it (go in, lose 500 troops, leave - what was that all about?).

- it leaves the burden of disengagement with the incoming Democratic administration, should the election be reasonably fairly run.

- they want the staging ground for further PNAC outrages.

[Rex]

8. What a shock

Iraq meet South Korea...South Korea meet Iraq.