AP Poll Notes Decline in Support for Bush

[TSIAS]

-snip-

WASHINGTON - President Bush's public support dropped sharply over the past month, especially among older voters, political independents and people in the Midwest, an Associated Press poll found.


And for the first time, more voters in this poll's two years of tracking the question said they would definitely vote against Bush than said they would definitely vote for him.


Bush's approval rating stood at 47 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll taken in early February, down from 56 percent approval just a month ago. Half, or 50 percent, said they disapproved in the latest poll.


The poll findings marked a difficult month for Bush, as public attention focused on the Democratic presidential primary and the Democrats' daily bashing of the incumbent. The survey came at a time when the public is nervous about the economy and the chief adviser to the administration on Iraqi weapons, David Kay, said last month "we were almost all wrong" about Iraq (news - web sites)'s weapons of mass destruction.

(more)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040206/ap_on_el_pr/ap_poll_bush&cid=694&ncid=716

[aquart]

1. Older voters?

You mean they didn't LIKE the Medicare Bill?

But...but....they were supposed to cheer and throw flowers.

[northzax]

28. uh, lots of people who were supposed to cheer and throw flowers

aren't doing quite that, are they, Mr. Sistani?

[POed_Ex_Repub]

2. My favorite quote

said Richard Bidlack, a 78-year-old retiree from Boonton, N.J., who says he voted for Bush in 2000. "I'm so upset at Bush, I'll vote for a chimpanzee before I vote for him."

Well, if he does vote for a chimpanzee instead, I hope he can differentiate which chimp he's voting for. (we don't want him to mistakenly vote for Bush again)

:silly:

[Enraged_Ape]

11. LOL. That was my first thought!

If he hadn't voted for a chimpanzee the last time around, he wouldn't be feeling this way.

[yellowcanine]

16. If the choice is between a chimp and a chimp......

No doubt the chimp will win - a new take on old HST's saying that if the choice is between a Republican and a Republican, the people will always go for the Republican.

[rocktivity]

17. He'd rather vote for a chimpanzee?

Bad news, Mr. Bidlack--that's exactly what you did.

:evilgrin:
rocknation

[Arugula Latte]

50. No. Chimps are intelligent primates.

To lump Bush in with them is being way too generous to A"W"OL.

[JasonDeter]

3. "daily bashing of the inscumbent?"

Telling the truth about the 'inscumbent' is not bashing you partisan hack reporters!

[lancdem]

25. I think there's much more going on than that

There are fundamental, serious problems Bush has that are independent of who our nominee is. As usual, the media doesn't understand that.

[Tims]

41. It's those damn Democrat's fault

If they just had the common decency not to "bash" Lord Emperor Dubya, we would all see him for the great guy he really is. Those Democrats always have to "play politics", and we all know Dubya is above politics. We know that is true because he always reminds us of that each time he runs off to a fund raiser.

[bluestateguy]

4. Hurry up! Let's hold the damn election NOW!!!!

Quick! Hurry up and get 'em to the polls before their minds are changed! Oh God, I don't know if those numbers are going to hold once Karl Rove's stormtroopers get started on our candidate.

[LosinIt]

5. Agreed and a lot of that depends on who our candidate is.

I think that yours, and mine by the way, can weather the storm, but the current media-appointed 'front runner' worries me a bit.

[michaud]

14. I agree

Kerry has got to go!!!

Vote Dean!!!

:)

[NJCher]

6. that's an interesting question

Will Rove's media strategery be able to drive the increasing questioning over Iraq off the pages?

As a former PR/marketing person, I'd hate to be in this situation. The scandals are flying so hot and heavy they beat the news cycle!

On the other hand, we taxpayers are not only paying for Rove, we're paying for a staff of 48 people to propagandize on the WH's behalf.


Cher

[BeatleBoot]

7. These numbers probably won't hold

Its going to be a rollercoaster ride, so buckle up!

[yellowcanine]

13. Maybe not - but they still taste delicious

I will take 50:47:: disapprove:approve anyday. I believe this is the first time for "disapprove" to reach 50% and for it to exceed "approve" since the selection, so I am going to savor it. Carl Rove has to be displeased today and that in itself is worth any dashed false hopes in the future.

[yellowcanine]

15. But I still want 61:39::disapprove:approve!

I know, it does take a lot to make me happy. I actually can't decide if I would be happier with a blowout of Bush by the Democrat in November or a cliffhanger where the Democrat prevails after winning Florida by about 500 votes and the winning margin provided by military absentee ballots - and oh yes, also after Fox called the state for Bush and had to retract it 1 hour later. Now that would be a mighty fine outcome. See, it really doesn't take much to make me happy.

[starroute]

33. Disapproval is stronger and longer-lasting than approval

When I was a kid, my uncle had been police and fire commissioner of a town in New Jersey for something like 20 years. He'd been re-elected so often I though he'd be doing it forever. But one year, when I was maybe 10 or 12, he lost the election. I didn't understand that at all and asked my mother what had happened.

She explained to me that when you are a politician, people rate you according to whether you've helped them out or supported their pet causes. But you can't help everyone, so over time you build up a larger and larger group of disappointed or angry voters who will vote for your opponents the next time round.

Moreover, it's far easier to lose a supporter by letting them down than to get back a former supporter whom you've disappointed. The process is asymmetrical -- it's essentially all downhill.

Bush is in the same position as my uncle was, except that the whole process is moving much faster. The disillusioned Republicans and independents who are turning against him now aren't going to be won back over just because he runs a bunch of tv commercials. These aren't just wavering supporters -- they're people who've been personally harmed by the policies of the last three years. That can't be turned around just by smiling and making more promises.

[radfringe]

8. from Polling Report.com

http://www.pollingreport.com/





CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Jan. 29-Feb. 1, 2004. N=1,001 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
http://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm
"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. George W. Bush."
.................Favorable / Unfavorable / Never Heard Of / No Opinion

1/29 - 2/1/04.................. 52 47 - 1
1/2-5/04.......................... 65 35 - -
10/6-8/03....................... 60 39 - 1

---------------------

What I'm hearing from the reich-wingers --- they are very upset with the deficits and this is the issue that is swinging them away from bush*

[RoadRunner]

9. "Bush fatigue" is starting to set in

At least one good thing has come of this for me personally. There's this jerk in my office, pretty high up, who used to come by several times a year to "encourage" me to vote Republican. He doesn't come by anymore.

[LiberalFighter]

43. If you haven't had your primary or caucus yet...

and petitions need to be signed by voters to get candidates on the ballot for President in your state...

Get some petitions and go up to that jerk and see if he will sign one of them.

You never know.. he just might.

[RoadRunner]

45. our caucus is over

but I'll hit him up to vote D in the general election. Great idea, thanks!

[dusty64]

10. Was there EVER

anything to approve of? Cause I never saw it.

[colonel odis]

12. let's don't think in terms of traditional media

bushco and rove will use traditional media to spend that $200 million. (well, what they don't give operatives and assassins.)

but i think they'll use most of that money on traditional media -- television, radio, outdoor. media that reach fewer and fewer people every day. living in a world where beaver comes home every day to june vaccuming the drapes, they're going to go with the tried and true.

however, there are more media choices today than ever before, especially non-measured/"guerilla" media. they're often a lot cheaper than wasteful television buys, too.

bus benches. yard signs. bills in public places. bumper stickers. signs on telephone poles. a sticker in a bathroom. a wrap around a newspaper. lapel buttons. banner ads on the internet. interesting web sites. wraps around coffee cups.

inexpensive, quick-hit media choices like that also give you the advantage of creating numerous executions. when you're printing something on a sticker, it's a lot cheaper to print a new sticker than it is to produce a new tv commercial. (though bush certainly has the money to do a ton of that.)

yet another advantage of a guerilla approach is it works from the ground up. grassroots marketing often sells products because it's a communication that's closer to a consumer's consciousness, as opposed to a television commercial people generally get up to go whiz during. and if you see 30 edwards/clark/kerry/dean messages in a day, as opposed to 2 or 3 bush messages on television, who are you going to subconsciously think more people like? and there are a lot of voters in this land who simply want to cast their ballot for the winner.

we can beat bush. we can. we can. we can. we can take his $200 million and shove it right back up his lazy, pampered butt. we can do it with more passion, more people, and more brains.

[Timefortruth]

18. In the middle of nowhere, in the heart of the Bible belt, where

the description Democrat and Devil worshiper are used interchangeably by the majority of the population there is a ground swell like you have never seen. Up to 200 people now show up to county meetings, up from 9 or so a year ago. These people will walk on hot coals, contribute until it hurts and give every single part of themselves to oust Bush. It isn't party politics so I don't know how long after November it will last but nothing like it has ever happened before.

There is no way to gage this in the polls.

[oscar111]

37. tell us more!

pls tell us about where in teh bible belt this phenomenon is . Sounds great! Also, what sort of meetings did you mean?

This sounds important, so pls fill us in with much more details.

How say that it will not show up on the polls? They query folks all over, so how will they miss it?
oscar111

[Timefortruth]

47. What mean is that with almost no effort we can get 200 people

in a room to stuff envelopes, drop literature, call or organize. People are aching to act on their fear that * will be reelected. The location of party meetings has been changed to accommodate the crowd. Some people who have nevereven voted before much less been politically active are now fighting the mother of all good fights. All this in a place where it takes political courage to come out as a Democrat.

Shoot, we have 4 or 5 people who changed their registration and immediately became active Democrats because of a sincere concern for the future of the nation and world.

If any of these people were called they would poll as ordinary Democratic voters or unlikely voters, so the polling won't reflect the ground swell. If this is happing here people elsewhere will be out as never before. This year is like no other.

[lancdem]

24. I read on another Web site that $33 million of that has been spent

Plus, he never did raise $200 million; it's more like $170 million.

Also, I find this very significant: Bush is exactly where his father was in 1992. Clinton and Reagan were not under 50 percent.

[LiberalFighter]

44. Polls

New York Times/CBS
Date Ap Da DK/NA
1/96 47 40 13
2/96 52 38 10
3/96 54 35 11

###
USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll results
A year-by-year breakdown of President Clinton's job approval ratings in the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll:

1996: Approval at 58% to start year, moves to 62% by mid-January, stays in the high 50s and low 60s much of the year, though dipping to 52% in mid-August.

###
GALLUP
Approve Disapprove No Opinion
REAGAN
1/13-16/84 Gallup 52 38 10
1/27-30/84 Gallup 55 37 8
2/10-13/84 Gallup 55 36 9

BUSH 41
1/16-19/92 Gallup 46 48 6
1/31-2/2/92 Gallup 47 48 5
2/ 6-9 /92 Gallup 44 48 8
2/19-20/92 Gallup 39 47 14

CLINTON
1/ 5-7 /96 Gallup 42 49 9
1/12-15/96 Gallup 46 47 7
2/23-25/96 Gallup 53 40 6

[JPace]

19. Rove must be sweating and nervous.....

this makes me so happy. Rove tried to
rally the sheep by offering trips to
mars.....bahhhh!! "We want jobs!"

Rove tried to rally the sheep by catching
Saddam.....bahhhh!! "boring, we want health care!"

Has Rove lost his edge?

[Beetwasher]

20. Rove is A Moron Trying to Sell A Defective Product (The Chimp)

Remember when you were a kid and some new toy would come along and the commercials for it were plastered all over the Saturday morning cartoons and before you knew it everyone you knew had one and of course, you had to get one too? It looked so great in the commercial, shiny and fun and promising endless enjoyment. I'm sure it happened numerous times during your childhood. Only, you get the toy and it's not nearly as fun as it looked and it breaks after using it a couple of times. The dissapointment and resentment would well up every time you saw the commercial after that. You knew the truth now and no amount of marketing would ever get you to buy another one of those toys. Maybe they'd sucker you in again for a NEW product, but that toy? History.

Bush is that toy. He was sold to the American people through a marketing and propoganda campaign of epic proportions. 9/11 didn't change Bush, it changed the way the country saw him. The country desperately needed a leader and they projected everything they thought a leader should be into Bush. Unfortunately for Bush and his bosses, they picked a defective product to foist on the American people.

The lustre has worn off and no amount of PR or marketing or propoganda can bring the people back to once again accept what they now know is a defective product. Bush's neocon bosses might have actually been able to pull off their complete seizure of the country if they had picked a different puppet. Someone who had at least a modicum of competence. Bush is not that puppet. He has neither the competence, the charisma or the intelligence. He's lazy, incurious, dull-witted, boorish, obnoxious and astoundingly arrogant. He's defective through and through right down to the very core of his essence and no amount of propoganda or PR will make people believe otherwise now.

And in addition, Rove, who one can say is the puppet master, is not all he's cracked up to be. I've never shared the opinion of many that Rove is brilliant. I've always thought he was a low-brow, ham fisted goon with a few obvious moves: Massive full frontal attack, or backstab and bait and switch. He's over rated.

Always remember, he didn't get the Chimp in by WINNING the election. If he could have done it that way, with smarts and finesse, I would say it was brilliant. To actually successfully sell a defective product takes brilliance. His tactics however, were ruthless thuggery and threats of violence and complete reliance on the Supreme Court. Nothing brilliant there. The Chimps approval ratings skyrocketed because of 9/11, not Rove's brilliance. A brilliant Political strategist would have been able to sustain those numbers. Rove is unable to do that and has NEVER been able to do that. He's a moron and he sucks at his job. He doesn't understand subtlety or nuance or the big picture. He's neither the intellect, the insight or the instincts of a brilliant person. What he does have is vicious ruthlessness in abundance and a propensity to take big risks. That's not brilliant, as a matter of fact, with no sense of moderation, it's quite stupid.

There's no marketing tactic, no amount of propoganda, no selling this defective product anymore. The best they can hope for is another anemic, short-lived blip in the polls as a result of some stunt, like capturing Bin Laden. This ride is over.

Keep in mind, I'm not claiming they won't "win" the next election, they very well might, but it won't be because they get the most votes.

[NJCher]

51. defective product and defective strategy

I am of the same opinion about Rove. But I've not run up against many people who will go along with me. Rove is shortsighted and he doesn't have the big picture, as you say. He also lets his meanness get out of control and that affects how the game is played. He's not really a dangerous enemy because he's predictable. Look at how we here all know what he'll pull next.

Also, I have always thought them stupid at the way they played their hand when they had their big chance at the WH/Senate/House. Arrogantly abusing their power, throwing their weight around, offending our allies and making us a world pariah. With just a little finesse they could have crossed the line but no one would have noticed because they would have acted in a subtle way. If they'd even selected a figurehead who was halfway intelligent, it would have played out better. But no one, not one person on their side or ours will say that bush has any brains. He is universally viewed as of substandard intelligence.

There have been a lot of big mistakes in the way they've executed their plan in the last three + years.



Cher

[yellowcanine]

27. If he is he is most dangerous

but also most likely to make a mistake - after all, we all agree the carrier landing is something that he wishes he could undo, right?

[underpants]

21. Graph

[onehandle]

22. Bingo.

"Bush saw a drop in support among most demographic and regional groups, but those were most pronounced among voters with a high school education or less, voters over age 65, political independents and voters in the Midwest."

[David__77]

23. Note the Midwest decline in ratings.

Our strategy most likely will have to focus on North-Midwest-Pacific, plus NM and maybe AZ. Ohio especially comes to mind.

[yellowcanine]

26. Yep - Ohio is winnable for a Democrat this year.

Got to juice up the turnout in the industrial cities, though - I still think Gore could have won Ohio had more of an effort been made to improve Dem turnout.

[Beetwasher]

29. If the Dems Keep all Of Gore's States

and pick up Ohio, it's a done deal...

[colonel odis]

32. or florida

and you can bet your hiney turnout will be huge down there.

[Raenelle]

36. If the primaries are any indication,

Dem turn out is going to be huge everywhere.

[LiberalFighter]

46. They better do a massive absentee vote down in Florida

Can't do chads with absentee votes. Or can they?

Democratic Party better conduct an education program for everyone that they can. In addition, they need to work closer with their coalition members.

[David__77]

30. It's Ohio's Democrats who have to get their act together.

The national party can win there. But the state party seems a shambles. I wonder why this is. A labor/Black/urban coalition should be able to at least maintain parity in the state.

[West Coast Democrat]

31. Yeeee Haaawwww!!!!!!!

You know the ACTUAL numbers have gotta be 5-10 pts lower!!

[Sliverofhope]

34. Quoth Atrios:

Can we stop saying he's a popular president NOW?!

[West Coast Democrat]

42. Let's Ask Cokie Roberts......

and see what she thinks

[wabeewoman]

35. Some excellent thoughtful posts here

I ventured to guess bush will not be reelected a month or so ago when my very repug brother stopped talking about bush-won't even discuss it. And a childhood friend who is a stauch republican hates bush. I don't know a lot of people but everyone I know, including republicans, do not support bush and many loathe him. I can't see him turning that around. It was funny but I was talking to a friend I hadn't talked to in quite a while and she said she just couldn't watch bush on tv because he would say something and then make this face while waiting for people to appaud. I said, you mean that smirky, arrogant face and she said, yeah, that's it! When you get a bad taste in your mouth, even honey doesn't make you forget what it tasted like.

[joeunderdog]

39. The dichotomy of truth and media image is now backfiring.

Most of the Bush polls lie because everyone wants to vote for a winner. But people are starting to question why Bush has been said to be so popular for this long. Now, even Non-Dems are starting to notice what a farcical image is portrayed on TV for such an auful pResident and a compromised America. The idea of RW media propagandizing is no longer farfetched. They are seeing an element of truth in the liberal caution not to believe the news.

People without jobs can't be convinced they're working. Blacks don't feel equal. Iraq doesn't feel like such a good idea anymore. Yet the media marches on with the Bush mantras. Fortunately, people are starting to question him and the media. This kind of doubt will take the legs off of future lies spewn by this administration

No one likes this guy if they have an ounce of independent thought in their head. Except millionaires, maybe, and there aren't enough of those to win an election.

[joe1991]

40. I am seeing it in my own family

My dads a moderate repub. We used to have minor arguments, more like fun discussions, our way bonding I guess.
But the other day, out of the blue, he said "I think Bush lied about the WMDs to get us into that war".
Same with most of the repubs I know.
They doesn't praise Shrub any more.

Just my opinion, but I think with our friends & family, we need to
try the "soft-sell" approach. Ask them who they voting for,
or if they like a particular bill, etc.
Most of them are not stupid or evil, a lot were mislead.
Yelling "I told you so" is never a good idea.

But I am not suggesting a "soft-sell" for the media.
I hope they turn up the heat. Bush is gonna pour those
millions in, and try to "McCain" our nominee.
Put your fight in the media.

[LiberalFighter]

48. We need to make a distinction between Republicans and people voting...

republican.

Republicans are those that are involved in the Republican Party from the precinct committee person to the highest elected Republican.

99.9% of them will vote Republican no matter what.

It is the voters that are not in this group that we have a chance at convincing if we treat them properly. Not all of them but plenty to make a big difference.

We want to reach the voters that have a brain. We want them to know the truth.

[joeunderdog]

52. You are wrong about this. Conseratives are PISSED.

Many Repukes--even Rush fans--feel betrayed.

People like winners. In Iraq--WE LOST. And we looked like idiots. We got Sadaam, but not the WMD prize that, lies or no lies, was why we all knew we supposedly went in there. We look like a Bush League country. Voters are embarrassed. They talked tough, and now they have to eat crow because they got duped by a Pres that put us in bigtime debt. We aren't even making money on their oil!

Medicare will be incredibly costly, the budget was the worst pork-barrell disaster ever, descretionary spending is at record highs, we are laxing immigration and Middle income Repub taxpayers are seeing no benefits. He's costing us money--the Cardinal sin for a Repuke pres. Unforgivable.

Plus the guy looks like a bad Jerry Lewis scene every time he tries to read or speak off the cuff.

MANY repukes are staying home this November. I know several myself, and it's a painful admission to them.

[DemMother]

38. Today's letters to editor in LA Times

All were anti-Bush. And they covered some pretty interesting territory--budget, AWOL, Iraq, and gay marriage.

"White House Defends Bush's Military Service"--three against Bush, none in support.
"Intelligence Probe: Look Beyond the CIA"--four against, none in support
"President Has Budget Priorities Mixed Up"--two against, none in support
"Massachusetts Affirms Gays' Rights to Marry"--four in support of gays, none against

Wish I could figure out how to link to letters; there are some terrific lines. My favorite is "November can't get here fast enough."

And remember, seniors usually vote in higher percentages. When I lived in Chicago I worked in the Abner Mikva campaign. He won by a very thin margin (I think it was his first run for congress). We tirelessly visited senior centers and helped get them to the polling places on election day. I'm convinced they made the difference.

[LiberalFighter]

49. I have been compiling a list of "Letters to the Editors"

at Website

I have the "Views" and the "Misquided Views".

There are many "Misquided Views" that show their stupidity and the Republican Party. They can and will help the Democratic Party.

[monobrau]

53. Work the phones this weekend!

A lot of my relatives and inlaws who were Bush supporters are starting to see the light. It's a good time to make sure they are paying attention. My mom was kind of in the neutral "let's give him a chance" camp for awhile, but is livid over the lies at this point.
It's a good time to pass on information and avoid saying "I told you so" while the scam comes undone.
I don't think any good will come from his appearance on MTP this weekend, so this is a critical time.