STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 6 February

[ozymandius]

Friday February 6, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 353
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY...
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 56 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 108 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 320
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 804
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 5, 2004

Dow... 10,495.55 +24.81 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq... 2,019.56 +5.42 (+0.27%)
S&P 500... 1,128.59 +2.07 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.17% +0.05 (+1.21%)
Gold future... 398.80 -2.90 (-0.72%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

(lots of charts - for good reason)

Current Strength in Drugs, Weakness in the Technology Generals
A Concise Technical Analysis (Nasdaq Technical Analysis Follows)

Similar to the late 90s bull market, the current rally’s leadership is from the “Technology Generals” such as Intel, Cisco, Oracle, Dell, and Microsoft. Another characteristic of the both the market top and this rally is a notable laggard group – the large capitalization drug stocks. Whereas in March of 2000, the drug stocks bottomed at about the same time as the Technology Generals topped, this time the drug stocks appear to have already bottomed and are showing strength. However, the similarities in leadership and “laggardship” between the last market top and the current rally, suggest that when the rally finally ends for large cap technology, it is likely to continue for the large drug companies. Are the technical charts of Technology Generals healthy? In this article, I present a comparative technical analysis of the major drug stocks and the Technology Generals. It shows that there is strength in big drug stocks, and weakness in large technology. <cut>

NASDAQ Technical Update

Around Thanksgiving week, I noted that the Nasdaq has formed a “fan” pattern. This classical technical analysis pattern is a method used to identify the end of a corrective (up) trend against a secular (down) trend. The standard rule is that when the third trend line is broken, “the high has been seen”. However although the pattern was identified accurately, the “rule” was broken at about New Years when Nasdaq broke above 2,000 decisively. At that time I noted that if the “fan” pattern had any remaining usefulness it would be if the third trend line (L-3) became a resistance line. As you can see from the chart below, trendline L-3 did in fact, become a resistance line. If Nasdaq 2,000 is broken decisively (say by 3%, and not reclaimed in a few days), then we may consider the fan pattern alive, and an indicator of the end of the Nasdaq bull run. <cut>

Today’s Market

It was a weak rally today, fed (Fed?), by comments by Ben Bernanke. The aggressors in today’s market were listening to Bernanke. Good luck with that! With the exception of Oracle, all of the technology generals were down today. Cisco is now at a critical juncture, since it is sitting below its support trendline. If it doesn’t reclaim it soon, then Wall Street may be inclined to look at its market capitalization, stock option accounting, and long-term growth outlook. <cut>

Why is all of this important? Because we can fiddle with charts all we want; but in the long run, valuations, dividends, and the definition of actual earnings do matter. I’m using charts as a tool to help establish when the nonsense will end. When it does end, it’s a long way down. There’s opportunity there!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.03 Change +0.13 (+0.15%)

related articles

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2404984

Asia's game

In essence, Asian governments are buying American Treasury bonds in order to ensure that Americans can afford to keep spending money on Asian goods. This cannot go on forever. Despite their mercantilist instincts, sooner or later Asia's central banks will have to face the fact that they are holding far too many risky, low-yielding dollars. If they stop buying, it could trigger a sharp fall in the dollar and a jump in bond yields. Delaying the natural adjustment in the dollar and bond yields is likely to mean that, when the inevitable correction comes, it will be much more painful.

If financial markets do turn nasty, then everybody will carry some of the blame. Japan and China will be guilty of trying to block market forces and hence an earlier adjustment in America's trade deficit. With Japan's economy now growing faster than the euro area and its firms' profits surging, Japan can probably afford a stronger yen. Its continuing worry about deflation can be better addressed by printing more money. And China needs to allow its currency to move upwards, not just to help the rest of the world, but also to rebalance its own overheating economy. Without such a rebalancing, inflation or a property boom and bust could destroy growth. The Chinese might find it easier to accept such advice if they are given a seat at the G7 table, where they clearly belong.

The euro area is also far from blameless. Policymakers wring their hands about the “brutal” rise in the euro, yet the euro is still close to fair value against a basket of currencies. If Europeans are worried that a stronger euro will hurt their economies, then the solution is simple: the European Central Bank should cut interest rates to boost demand.

However, America must bear much of the blame for its failure to do anything to curb household and government borrowing and so boost saving. Its easy monetary and fiscal policies are now beginning to look reckless. The dollar's slide has rightly shifted some of the burden of economic adjustment on to other economies. Sooner or later, though, America will have to face up to its own responsibilities, too.

...more...

and

http://www.asahi.com/english/opinion/TKY200402040167.html

BOJ on shaky ground in anti-deflation fight

In an unexpected move to open the monetary spigots even wider, the Bank of Japan decided at its Jan. 20 policy board meeting to raise its target for required reserves at the bank to between 30 trillion and 35 trillion yen, up from an already staggering 27 trillion to 32 trillion yen. The central bank's credit easing came when the economy was heading for recovery largely in line with the bank's scenario, although it was not in very fine shape yet, and the stock and other financial markets were relatively stable. Market attention was inevitably focused on the reasons given by the BOJ for its policy change.

``Quantitative easing is effective to a certain extent as a step to deal with deflation,'' BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui declared at a news conference following the decision. His remarks took many people familiar with the central bank's theory about deflation by surprise.

Three years ago, embarking on so-called quantitative easing, the BOJ switched its money policy target from money market interest rates to the levels of commercial banks' reserve account balances. The move was designed to supply a huge amount of funds with interest rates virtually at zero.

The bank's unprecedented step was encouraged partly by the prevailing view in political and academic circles that a torrent of liquidity triggered by the BOJ's quantitative easing would end deflation. Since then, the central bank has been lifting the liquidity target steadily in response to various worrying signs from the economy and the banking system. But deflationary pressure has not disappeared completely, and the recovery is still on shaky ground.

<snip>

All of a sudden, Fukui changed the bank's official position. ``Since the quantitative easing policy worked to stop the deflationary downturn, it must have the power to give an additional push to the economy when it has started picking up,'' he said.

There is, however, no room for any further significant decline of interest rates, which are already at extremely low levels. No explanation has been given about how the central bank can stimulate top corporate executives to ramp up investment for business expansion.

<snip>

Anyway, Fukui has made a very risky move. If he really believes the quantitative easing formula can stoke up the deflationary economy, he should launch a study to prove the effects and publish the results as quickly as possible. Otherwise, the perception that there is no solid logic behind the BOJ's monetary policy will only spread further in the markets, threatening the credibility of the central bank.

...more...

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/06/business/06finance.html?pagewanted=2&ei=5062&en=05c484d8b4f4f076&partner=GOOGLE&ex=1076734800

Finance Chiefs to Chide Bush on Deficit

excerpt:

"The administration wants a continued gradual orderly decline in the dollar, and the Europeans want to stop the rise in the euro," Mr. Bergsten said. American and European leaders would like to see the Japanese reduce their intervention and the Chinese relax their policy of locking their own currency, the yuan, at a fixed exchange rate to the dollar.

Regardless of what the administration does, analysts predict that the dollar will continue to fall for some time. The United States is now running a current-account deficit of $500 billion a year, or 5 percent of the gross domestic product. The current account is the broadest measure of trade and financial balances with the rest of the world.

Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has called that imbalance unsustainable. A drop in the dollar serves as an automatic adjustment mechanism, making exports cheaper and imports more expensive.

But some analysts predict that investors are now so pessimistic about the dollar that they could push it down much further if the Group of 7 countries show willingness to stem the decline.

Investors will be closely watching the communiqué issued by the finance ministers on Saturday. At the last meeting, the group helped depress the value of the dollar by issuing a united call for greater "flexibility'' in exchange rates - a message intended to pressure Asian nations, especially China, to allow their currencies to rise in value.

This time, European ministers would like some kind of acknowledgment that the dollar has fallen enough.

They would also like to drop the word "flexibility," with its implication of letting the dollar float to whatever level set by the market.

Larry Greenberg, an international economist at Reid, Thunberg, an investment advisory firm, said the differences between Mr. Snow and his counterparts would not be easy to smooth over.

The following is not necessarily related, but thought that it might play in all of the political processes:

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=565&fArticleId=342417

Shell reports 33% drop in profit

London - The Royal Dutch/Shell Group yesterday reported that fourth-quarter profit fell 33 percent as chairman Philip Watts vowed to keep his post and resolve investor criticism about declining reserves at Europe's second-biggest oil company.

"My priority is to fix this problem," Watts said, his first public comments since the company lowered its proven oil and gas holdings by 20 percent on January 9.

Shell said write-downs and costs to shut a refinery led quarterly profit lower to $1.86 billion from $2.78 billion a year earlier, excluding gains from holding oil inventories.

Falling profit at Shell, based in London and The Hague, contrasts with an increase at Exxon Mobil, where an improving chemical unit and tax gain caused fourth-quarter earnings to jump 63 percent.

...more...

Good Morning Ozy! Great 'Toon today :D

Have a Great Day Marketeers! :hi:

[54anickel]

4. Good Morning UIA, Ozy and all. Happy Friday

I was watching Nightly Business Review last night and I was shocked, shocked, I tell you to see them covering the falling dollar, currency pegs and floats and the effects on Singapore, Malaysia and the US. This was the first time I had seen currency covered on NBR. They did not mention the G7 meeting though.
The declining dollar has finally caught their attention.

[54anickel]

19. Your NYTimes piece bring a question to mind -

European countries like Germany and France have budget deficits that are at least proportionate to that of the United States. But that has not prevented European leaders from complaining about the United States' rising indebtedness to the rest of the world.

I am assuming they are comparing it to percentage of GDP. What I would like to know is what percentage of their GDP goes to debt service? The US figure is now at 78% of GDP for debt service. We learned earlier this week we will be borrowing how much just to make the interest payments on our debt?

I don't know the debt service figures for Germany and France, but I do not believe they are at all comparable. Perhaps someone has that figure available.

Gotta love this quote from that same article:

"The irreconcilable differences are clear," Mr. Greenberg said. "The Europeans have staked out a position that the weak dollar is the Americans' fault. The American view is that they don't really care."

Suck it up and bring 'em on. Sheesh, I hate this misadministration.

:grr: :nuke: :grr: :nuke: :grr: :nuke: :grr: :nuke: :grr: :nuke:

[mbperrin]

21. Is anyone else getting tired of these invalid GDP comparisons?

GDP is only the stated value of all finished goods produced in a certain country in a given year. It is not sales. It is not income. It is not assets. It is not spendable in any fashion, nor is it amortizable in any way.

You could state that the value of an addition to your house is $10,000,000 and that would make you a deca-millionaire in the eyes of GDP number lovers.

But if that house won't sell for 10 mill (and if those manufactured goods don't sell for their stated value), then it means nothing.

This is just a way to get a very large number to make these unbelievably high deficit/debt numbers look smaller.

[ozymandius]

3. Stocks await jobs, G7

Stocks await jobs, G7

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The January employment report and the start of the G7 finance ministers meeting in Florida will get investors' attention as the trading week comes to an end Friday.

<cut>
The jobs report will be closely watched for signs of an employment rebound. But then so was the December report, and it turned out that only 1,000 jobs were created in the month.

This time around, economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect to see 165,000 jobs created, with the unemployment holding at 5.7 percent. But there are also expected to be a lot of caution flags in the report, no matter how high the number, because of a recalibration of last year's figures and such peculiar circumstances as the lack of December retail hiring throwing off the seasonal factors.

The weak dollar is expected to be a major topic at the weekend meeting of finance ministers from the world's seven strongest economies that begins Friday in Boca Raton, Fla. But market participants don't expect anything in the way of concrete action to strengthen the U.S. currency.

[54anickel]

5. There is an interesting 3 part series from Financial Sense posted

over in the Economics forum by Kalian. I thought it neatly packaged many of the concerns raised in this thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=114&topic_id=5394

[ozymandius]

6. Good morning UIA, 54anickel and everyone! Futures just got ugly.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

Stock Futures Fall After Jobs Data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures fell on Friday after the government reported that 112,000 new nonfarm jobs were created in January, below Wall Street's average estimate of 150,000.


Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index were trading lower immediately after the data was released.

(end of short story)

[ozymandius]

7. This is confusing - same story, spin competition

Jobless Rate Drops; 112,000 Jobs Added

WASHINGTON - The nation's unemployment rate dropped to 5.6 percent in January to the lowest level in more than two years as companies added 112,000 new jobs, providing fresh signs the prolonged hiring slump may be ending.

The jobless rate fell 0.1 percentage point last month to the lowest level since October 2001, when it was 5.4 percent, the Labor Department (news - web sites) said Friday. January's rate matched the 5.6 percent posted in January 2002.

Employers added new jobs last month at a pace not seen in three years. The last time payrolls expanded more than 112,000 was in December 2000, when companies added 124,000 positions.

more here

and then there's this...

January Payrolls Weaker Than Expected

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy created just 112,000 new jobs in January, far fewer than expected, government data showed on Friday, in a disappointing report that will weigh on President Bush (news - web sites)'s re-election campaign.

The fifth straight monthly gain in non-farm payrolls followed a revised increase of 16,000 new jobs in December, the Labor Department (news - web sites) said. The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.6 percent, the lowest since January 2002, from 5.7 percent the previous month - but those numbers are taken from a separate, smaller, survey.

Analysts had been expecting the improving economy to create 150,000 new jobs in January. They were looking for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.7 percent.

more here...

Is the glass half-empty or half-full?

[54anickel]

12. From UIAs article above:

``When viewed through the eyes of faith, anything can seem good''

Those Japanese central bankers, such catchy phrases. }(

[UpInArms]

18. more reading material :)

regarding the dollar's reaction to the jobs data

Dollar, shares slide, bonds jump on U.S data

http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2004/02/06/rtr1249231.html

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The dollar, which had rallied against the euro and yen in anticipation of a strong U.S. employment number, dropped sharply and bonds rose in value after investors were surprised by weaker than expected job creation.

Investors had sold yen and euros and bet on the dollar in anticipation the data would indicate the strength of the U.S. recovery and point to higher interest rates.

But those expectations were disappointed when data from the world's biggest economy had created just 112,000 new jobs in January, well below analyst estimates of 150,000 and the dollar plunged one percent against the euro, sterling and Swiss france.

"It's disappointing, 112,000 is below the consensus. It just shows that companies are still moving tentatively. Stocks will will move lower on this," said Larry Wachtel, market analyst at Wachovia Securities in New York.

"There isn't any sense the Fed is ready to do anything and they had talked about the slack labour market -- this shows it's still slack," he said.

...more...

[54anickel]

23. There's those expectations again.

So, when does reality set in? 3 years of unprecedented stimulus, humongous debt and what have we got to show for it so far? Sure, the data may point to some upward movement, but not nearly enough in relationship to what we put into it.

It's been like feeding a dying horse by shoving extra hay up it's a$$. You've been giving double the amount of feed, but the SOB still dies.

[UpInArms]

8. I don't think that the markets

are going to be very happy with those employment numbers

Here's gold's reaction

GOLD
02/06/2004
09:05
bid 404.90
ask 405.40
change +6.90 +1.73%
low 395.30
high 409.80

and the dollar's

Last trade 86.57 Change -0.33 (-0.38%)

[54anickel]

10. Hmmm, there goes my favorite old dog again. Now he's

peein' on the neighbors bushes. :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

9. Payrolls grow below forecast

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. employers added thousands of jobs to their payrolls in January, the government said Friday, but the number again fell short of Wall Street forecasts.

Payrolls outside the farm sector grew by 112,000 jobs, the Labor Department said, compared with an upwardly revised gain of 16,000 in December. It was the sixth straight month of payroll gains. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent from 5.7 percent in December.

Economists, on average, expected 165,000 new jobs and unemployment at 5.7 percent, according to Briefing.com.

"Two and a half years into this recovery, and the economy can only muster up 112,000 new jobs?" said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research. "That's a bad number, not a good number."

story

[54anickel]

22. I am confused on this statement -

The report also did little to settle the vast discrepancy between the household survey, which produces the unemployment figure, and the broader establishment survey, which produces the payroll figure. The household survey -- which includes the self-employed -- said employment grew by nearly 500,000 people in January.

Some economists had also hoped that the Labor Department's annual benchmark revisions, applied to the last 12 months of payroll growth, would have raised the number of workers on payrolls, to bring them more in line with the household survey. But the revisions actually drove the payroll total lower by about 81,000.

The revisions did make January's payroll growth the strongest since 124,000 in December 2000.

I thought they use the household survey?

[kysrsoze]

24. What they still fail to mention is that unemployment most likely fell

due to the record number of people who were dumped from unemployment benefits and counting last month. Incidentally, how many jobs were lost in Jan? I saw LOTS of layoff announcements.

38. Exactly

That was not mentioned.

More people "giving up". But if benefits are continued, won't that make the rate skyrocket next month? The states are getting funding again, no???

[Frodo]

13. I wouldn't say "ugly" (they're still "up") But look at gold go!

$12 (or so) jump in gold in just a few minutes. Big drop in the dollar as well.

[Teaser]

17. They are not up relative to the job force size, though.

IIRC We're not even making numbers that cut into employment, because of new entrants to the work force.

[Frodo]

20. You had me confused.... I was referring to the "futures" number.

Which was still up when a post said "futures just got ugly"

The "new entrants to the workforce" is not a data related argument. It's an assumption based on population growth nationally, and can be way off in any given month. Part of the monthly release is the number of people in and out of the labor force, and while it is a less-than-entirely-precise measurement, it's bunches better than "'job-age' population grows by 1.8 Million a year, so that's 150,000 new job seekers per month"

Five straight months of SOME job growth is at least SOMETHING. And the fact that it has yet to even approach "bush expectations" is good politically too.


What's also not included in the conversation much so far is the effect the seasonal adjustment adjustment may have had. Dec to Jan is not a straight line comparison and any of these figures could be "off" several thousand without it being a "real" change.

[Coventina]

11. The "I Ching" on today's market

Good morning everyone! Happy Friday!

Today's reading is CREATIVE POWER changing to RESOLUTION. Creative Power is one of the most positive and powerful of the hexagrams, however, it is lessened by having the changing line: "Your ambitions far exceed the possibilities of your Creative Power. If you pursue this dream you will lose touch with reality. When you no longer know how to behave appropriately you will come to regret your actions."

RESOLUTION demands action: "Resolution must spring from your heart and must be voiced to your friends, family, and community. Let others know fully of your intentions to overcome obstacles."

Well, how to interpret this....I am going to say that Ching is saying that the current economy does not have the power to fulfill the expectations being put upon it. I think Ching is saying that more concrete action has to be resolved upon before this economy can get off its knees.

I predict a day of malaise in the markets.

[UpInArms]

14. Great Reading Today, Coventina!

this sentence:

"Your ambitions far exceed the possibilities of your Creative Power. If you pursue this dream you will lose touch with reality. When you no longer know how to behave appropriately you will come to regret your actions."

could it apply to the BoJ? :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

15. Casino's open for business

9:44

Dow 10,492.81 -2.74 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,031.37 +11.81 (+0.58%)
S&P 500 1,129.91 +1.32 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.115% -0.059

[ozymandius]

16. Job numbers, Bush share early blame for hosing market numbers.

The same reasons, cited above, are getting heavy circulation to explain why we may have bad numbers today -AND- why Bush's re-(s)election hopes continue to dwindle.

[54anickel]

29. Check out the chart that underpants posted in another thread.

Very telling...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=349553#349985

[54anickel]

25. It's up and away now!

Dow 10,576.29 +80.74 (+0.77%)
Nasdaq 2,048.72 +29.16 (+1.44%)
S&P 500 1,139.23 +10.64 (+0.94%)
10-Yr Bond 4.091% -0.083

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040206/eae3ba50d5a4369d2dd6ee20308179b2_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks were broadly higher Friday as data showing job growth was strong in January, but not quite as strong as expected, soothed investor fears that interest rates would rise sooner rather than later.
snip>
Tom Schrader, head of listed trading at Legg Mason, said the data was good for stocks, since it was weak enough that the Federal Reserve "won't have to raise rates as fast or as soon as some people anticipated.".

The data also prompted a rally in the bond market, but sent the U.S. dollar reeling.

"Overall, the report offers only a tantalizing glimpse of the future - payrolls are accelerating but not yet very rapidly, though the unemployment rate is dropping steadily," said High Frequency Economics' chief U.S. economist Ian Shepherdson.

He said he had "hoped for better," and does not expect the report to change the Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy.


Some thoughts - I took Greenspins earlier comments about jobs, retraining, the market will create jobs as it always had in the past, blah, blah, blah, as a bit of a hint that he would not be willing to wait forever to see huge jobs growth. Just movements in the general directions.

Did anyone else read his comments that way?

[ozymandius]

31. This is the way I typically read his comments.

My opinion of Greenspan is that we can depend on him for a wait-and-see approach to everything. I also know that he is heavily invested in the bond market - so there is some deference to keeping things just the way they are.

But rates NEED to go up. We cannot sustain these sub-basement levels. And the Fed needs wiggle room in case things go terribly wrong. Raising rates will provide some space to maneuver.

Call it either laziness or greed as motivating factors behind his words and actions (never impartial stewardship). But I also do not think that he wants to be perceived as an outright political player. So he may not be able to afford to wait long before tweaking short-term interest rates.

He also needs to time monetary policy changes early-on as political cover in an election year.

In conclusion, he just needs an excuse to up the rates. Any excuse. Even a spectre of one.

[54anickel]

32. Thanks Ozy. So do you consider all of this yammering in the markets

of, "oh, it's safe - jobs are down so interest won't go up" as a false assumption? That's what I'm seeing, but then I see most of the assumptions these days as false.

[ozymandius]

33. I believe it's wishful thinking.

While there are economic factors that I cannot even pretend to understand at play here - the correlation between jobs creation among an interest rate hike is spurious, IMHO. I think the logic here is circular: Interest rates go up; the stock market takes a dive; jobs are either lost or never materialize. Therefore: interest rates remain at historic lows; the stock market goes up; and where are the jobs? 'Not important', it would seem, is the answer to this rhetorical question.

36. Did you notice

What's unexplainable about the employment numbers is most of the jobs were retail--in January. It's as if the retail hires were reported one month later. Is it not usually the case that retail numbers are up in December, and down in January?

Beyond retail, manufacturing and professional jobs fell...

This report is actualy much worse than the headline number, and suggests next months report may show a huge drop overall (if the retail numbers are "late").

[54anickel]

37. Yes, but it is hard to make a comparison in these "unusual" times

to what is "usually the case". Perhaps all the retail hiring in taking place in the ever expanding new Wal-Mart Superstores. :shrug:

43. Good point

Wars are fought based on phony claims...

Black holes show up in economic indicies...

Houses, bonds, stocks, oil, and gold all go up at the same time in a "delationary" economy.

Taint normal.

[ozymandius]

26. 11:20 numbers and blather

Dow 10,567.11 +71.56 (+0.68%)
Nasdaq 2,046.44 +26.88 (+1.33%)
S&P 500 1,138.25 +9.66 (+0.86%)
10-Yr Bond 4.089% -0.085

U.S. stocks broadly higher as data soothes rate fears

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks were broadly higher Friday as data showing job growth was strong in January, but not quite as strong as expected, soothed investor fears that interest rates would rise sooner rather than later.

The technology sector also cheered a strong quarterly report from telecom equipment maker Ericsson, while blue chip stocks got a lift from strength in McDonald's, Caterpillar and Citigroup.

<cut>
Tom Schrader, head of listed trading at Legg Mason, said the data was good for stocks, since it was weak enough that the Federal Reserve "won't have to raise rates as fast or as soon as some people anticipated.".

The data also prompted a rally in the bond market, but sent the U.S. dollar reeling.

story here

Wow! Imagine how much higher the market would rise if the work force were cut in half!

[ozymandius]

27. You Are Lovin' It! McDonald's Sales Jump (churning stomach time)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - McDonald's Corp. (NYSE:MCD - News) on Friday said worldwide sales at fast-food restaurants open more than a year rose 10 percent in January as items like new entree-sized salads boosted results in its primary U.S. market.

<cut>
McDonald's U.S. same-store sales growth suggests "they're not only doing well, but also seem to be taking share," said Harris Nesbitt Gerard analyst Matthew DiFrisco, who has an "outperform" rating on the shares. "They're outpacing Wendy's and outpacing Burger King significantly."

Wendy's International Inc. (NYSE:WEN - News), the third-largest U.S. hamburger chain behind McDonald's and Burger King, on Monday said January comparable sales at company-owned Wendy's restaurants were up 8.3 percent. The Dublin, Ohio-based company also lowered its long-term earnings outlook as it makes improvements to its Baja Fresh Mexican-style chain.

story

[ozymandius]

28. Super Size Me

PARK CITY -- Following in the footsteps of Michael Moore's work, "Super Size Me" is one of the new generation of documentaries in which the filmmaker becomes the subject. In this case, director Morgan Spurlock had the bright idea that he would eat at McDonald's three meals a day for a month and see what happens. The outcome is not a pretty picture, but thanks to Spurlock's oversized and buoyant personality and some pretty nifty filmmaking, the results are as entertaining as they are sobering.

<cut>
Spurlock starts out the picture of health, a strapping 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds. Three doctors and a nutritionist, who reappear throughout, examine him and attest to his well being. But within a few days he's vomiting out of the window of his car. And it's downhill from there. Spurlock's body goes through a general deterioration that surprises even his doctors in its rapidity. (His girlfriend, a vegan chef, is beside herself.) Gaining weight is just the outward sign: His liver becomes toxic, his cholesterol skyrockets, his libido sags, he gets headaches and becomes depressed.

I'm lovin' it.

[ozymandius]

30. During the lunchtime break

12:11

Dow 10,558.29 +62.74 (+0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,048.80 +29.24 (+1.45%)
S&P 500 1,137.89 +9.30 (+0.82%)
10-Yr Bond 4.093% -0.081

[ozymandius]

34. 1:39 numbers

Dow 10,564.59 +69.04 (+0.66%)
Nasdaq 2,053.16 +33.60 (+1.66%)
S&P 500 1,139.26 +10.67 (+0.95%)
10-Yr Bond 4.083% -0.091

U.S. stocks higher as data soothes rate fears

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks were broadly higher Friday in afternoon trading as data showing job growth was strong in January, but not quite as strong as expected, soothed investor fears that interest rates would rise sooner rather than later.

(The last sentence of the first paragraph is misleading.)

Tom Schrader, head of listed trading at Legg Mason, said the data was good for stocks, since it was weak enough that the Federal Reserve "won't have to raise rates as fast or as soon as some people anticipated.".

one very sloppily written article

[ozymandius]

35. 2:13 numbers and have a great weekend!

Dow 10,555.03 +59.48 (+0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,052.03 +32.47 (+1.61%)
S&P 500 1,138.56 +9.97 (+0.88%)
10-Yr Bond 4.099% -0.075

Other duties call. See you folks Monday!

:hi:

Ozymandius

[54anickel]

39. 3:19 numbers & blather

Dow 10,578.14 +82.59 (+0.79%)
Nasdaq 2,058.60 +39.04 (+1.93%)
S&P 500 1,141.22 +12.63 (+1.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.089% -0.085

3:00PM: The bulls continue to run on Wall Street as the major indices reach for new best levels... As it stands now, the Dow and S&P 500 are poised to finish the week mildly higher - an impressive feat considering the magnitude of Wednesday's sell-off... As for the Nasdaq, it is about 10 points away from ending the week with gains as the mid-week thrashing was concentrated in the tech shares... Encouragingly, though, the sector has come back today, and paced today's rally...

[54anickel]

40. Rush to golds pushes Toronto stocks up 100 points

http://www.forbes.com/iraq/newswire/2004/02/06/rtr1249862.html
TORONTO, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Toronto stocks jumped 100 points late on Friday afternoon with gold-mining stocks leading the rally as the price of bullion surged on the back of a weak U.S. dollar.

The Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX composite index <.GSPTSE> was up 100.04 points, or 1.17 percent, at 8,648.45.

All of the TSX's 10 subindexes gained ground with gold miners, a subsector of materials rising 4 percent.

[54anickel]

41. And the blame games are off!

http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=26&story=33846

CALLING THE BLUFF

IMF plays dirty economics
Strangely, for the IMF, the US CA deficit is not a Chinese yuan problem, says Surjit S. Bhalla

snip>
In a recent report, the world’s economic umpire, the IMF, states that there could be dire consequences of irresponsible US policies; “unless corrective action is taken, (US policy) raises a number of longer term and multilateral concerns” (press briefing on IMF occasional paper, “US Fiscal Policies and priorities for Long-Run Sustainability”, emphasis added).

The sheer courage of the IMF needs to be applauded — it is taking on, and strongly criticising, the number one economic power in the world, and from a vantage point just 100 yards away from the seat of imperial power at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Does the IMF not realise the risks it is taking in criticising the Americans; what will happen if the US got pissed off and stopped paying its dues, as it did with the UN some years back? Given the runaway imperialness of the US these days, this bold IMF report is what courage is all about. Or is it?

more...

[54anickel]

42. Closing numbers

Dow 10,593.03 +97.48 (+0.93%)
Nasdaq 2,064.01 +44.45 (+2.20%)
S&P 500 1,142.76 +14.17 (+1.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.089% -0.085


Have a great weekend! :hi: