U.S. January Payrolls Rise 112,000 (expected 175000)

[papau]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=afkL2ILwxCyI&refer=us

U.S. January Payrolls Rise 112,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 5.6%
Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy added a smaller-than- expected 112,000 jobs in January, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent. <snip>
Economists had expected payrolls would rise by 175,000 last month following a previously reported increase of 1,000 in December, according to the median of 69 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.<snip>

Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York, had expected a rebound in retail hiring last month because the government has trouble adjusting the numbers for seasonal variations during and after the Christmas holidays.

``Less December hiring by retailers and restaurants should translate into less January firing by these establishments, a positive swing factor,'' Soss said in a research report to clients. Soss had forecast payrolls would rise by 150,000. <snip>


Incomes increased last month. Workers' average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent, or 2 cents, after a 0.1 percent increase the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.2 percent increase in hourly wages. Average weekly earnings rose to $522.01 last month from $518.25 in December. <snip>

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost

Id: LNS12000000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1994 121966 122086 121930 122290 122864 122634 122706 123342 123687 124112 124516 124721
1995 124663 124928 124955 124945 124421 124522 124816 124852 125133 125388 125188 125088
1996 125125 125639 125862 125994 126244 126602 126947 127172 127536 127890 127771 127860
1997 128298 128298 128891 129143 129464 129412 129822 130010 130019 130179 130653 130679
1998 130726 130807 130814 131209 131325 131244 131329 131390 131986 131999 132280 132602
1999 133027 132856 132947 132955 133311 133378 133414 133591 133707 133993 134309 134523
2000 136561(1) 136599 136668 137264 136611 136923 136516 136701 136908 137124 137316 137632
2001 137790 137581 137738 137275 137063 136842 137091 136314 136869 136447 136234 136078
2002 135715 136362 136106 136096 136505 136353 136478 136811 137337 137079 136545 136459
2003 137447(1) 137318 137300 137578 137505 137673 137604 137693 137644 138095 138533 138479
2004 138566(1)
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls in January 2000, January 2003 and January 2004.

[papau]

1. Notice the US Media spin - the UE rate is lowest in 2 years (changes in po

changes in population controls ?)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18401-2004Feb6.html

http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/06/news/economy/jobs/index.htm?cnn=yes

Payrolls grow below forecast

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/ap20040206_557.html

Nation's Unemployment Rate Drops to 5.6 Percent in January to Lowest Level in More Than Two Years

[Laughing Mirror]

4. Are the number of jobs LOST tabulated anywhere?

To compare with the number of new jobs?

[oscar111]

6. lost___ d o l's jolt project

tells opennings

[Fovea]

13. If job growth is below the 150K needed to keep up with new entries

Then how is a figure in the one-teens actually growth.
Thats JOB LOSS!

[salin]

2. going in the right direction

for those whose jobs were squeezed out of the economy over the past couple of years. Still no where near the rate needed to make a dent in the total loss... but in the right direction.

[Yavin4]

3. You Cannot Trust Any Bush Numbers

Anyone remember how they revised November's job creation numbers downward after a couple of months. I'm sorry. I just don't believe these numbers.

Cue Frodo to tell us how ignorant we are for not thinking that the economy is roaring.

[teryang]

5. What a snow job!

The household survey is showing people who are borrowing money to start businesses because they can't get a job. These are all being chalked up in the retail sector inflating the employment figures.

700,000 jobs lost since the recession ended?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

7. For an economy supposedly bouncing back from recession

these numbers are surprisingly weak. Canada's rate is proportionately better, and that's for an economy that didn't go as deep into recession as the US.

[Jim__]

8. Liberal media - Headline and story

Firms added 120,000 jobs in January
Unemployment rate falls to 5.6%
MSNBC staff and news service reports
Updated: 8:49 a.m. ET Feb. 06, 2004

WASHINGTON - Companies added 112,000 new jobs in January, as the nation's unemployment rate dropped to 5.6 percent, providing fresh signs the prolonged hiring slump may be ending.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4191108/

[priller]

9. Those are weaker than expected

And they're seasonally adjusted numbers also (adjusted up). In a few months this number will be revised downward (just as December's 1,000 was revised up to 16,000).

[ramapo]

10. Media spin as good news

Driving to work I heard the lead on the local CBS radio affiliate, "Good news on job front may boost stocks". I didn't listen to the story so I'm surprised to read that the news wasn't so good.

Sometimes though the market likes unemployment as it keeps labor costs down and helps profits.

That darn liberal media....

[papau]

11. Wish the media would explain the new "seasonal adjustments" and the new

changes in population controls in January 2000, January 2003 and January 2004.

Indeed I'd be happy if the media would just let me know why there was no change in population controls in January 2001, and January 2002.


And as to seasonal adjustment which no longer can be compared tp prior seasonal adjustment as the method (sort-of) changes from month to month, perhaps our media could find out what the results would have been the last honest administrations rules - the Clinton administration procedures.

But that would imply that our media is not a right wing Bush biased Rove reprint machine - and that would be wrong ....

sigh....

:-)

[papau]

15. X-12 ARIMA software for seasonal adjustment

CPS began using the X-12 ARIMA software for seasonal adjustment of time series data in 2003 and for some reason my mind tells me these techniques are less stable over time than the X-11 software used under Clinton.

I do like the "fair use" item below:

FAIR USE NOTICE

This post may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. I am making such material available in my efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. I believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material in this post is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml.

If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.

[Cheesehead]

12. Doesn't quite offset the scheduled cuts

The outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., said post-holiday job cuts reached 117,556 in January surpassing the 100,000 threshold for the first time since last October.

Still losing manufacturing jobs! Mine went away 2.5 years ago.

[underpants]

14. Graphic breakdown-46K lost in Manufacturing/Prof&Bus./Govt.

[JCMach1]

16. Great chart... if accurate at only LOW PAYING service

jobs were added...

This is even with the bogus seasonal adjustment...

[pacifictiger]

21. thanks for posting this chart.

Amazing how numbers can be skewed to suit the audience. Rather telling that professional, business & manufacturing fell 33K, while mostly low paying retail, leisure & hospitality grew 97K. Any fool can see that pretty soon there will not be anyone to able to buy stuff and travel except the wealthy.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

17. Home Depot made deal with AARP to hire 70000 PT seniors nationwide

heard this on MSNBC this morning...part time elderly were hired :puke:

[saigon68]

18. THEY NEED TO WORK TO PAY MEDICARE DEDUCTIBLES

No shirking now Grand-Ma

Better yet the clinics sue them
and then garnish for unpaid medical deductibles

[Yavin4]

20. Come On Grandma Get That Box of Hammers Off The Top Shelf

Putting our elderly to work.

[llmart]

19. I heard the same thing....

and I was furious! I am so sick of the media trying to convince those of us over 55 that we should go to work after we retire. No rest for our generation. It'll be good for you! And where are we going to work? Home Depot and Wal-Mart? I have a friend who tried that and he stayed for 3 weeks before he quit. His boss was 27 and he was 57 and took a job in the small tools department. He said the kid had probably never even used a small tool before yet he was his manager. Meanwhile my friend has owned a house for 35 years and done all his own repairs. He had to work Sundays/Saturdays, holidays. Yeah, right - this is fun at our age? I don't think so!

[tom_paine]

22. And they were all "service" jobs

Read piece of shit lowpaying nothing dead-end jobs.

[pinniped]

23. Damm McJobs.

n/t

[Maeve]

24. CBS News just had someone use the phrase "jobLOSS recovery"

A term that has been used here at DU for, oh, a year or so!