STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 11 February (#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday February 11, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 348
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY...
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 61 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 113 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 325
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 809
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 10, 2004

Dow... 10,613.85 +34.82 (+0.33%)
Nasdaq... 2,075.33 +14.76 (+0.72%)
S&P 500... 1,145.54 +5.73 (+0.50%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.10% +0.04 (+0.91%)
Gold future... 407.00 -0.40 (-0.10%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif (Weekly Charts)

Current Analysis We did get the additional 2% loss in NASDAQ, but the SP held above the critical 1122 level, while all indicators got near the bottom of their range. Last week's action was identical to the action that we have seen over and over since March of last year. We got a sharp internal correction while giving up very little in terms of price, suggesting that the bull is alive and well. The only element of difference in this latest corrective episode was the total absence of concern, or bearishness on behalf of market participants, no increase in the assets of the Rydex Bear Index funds, no spike in the put/call ratios. Strictly speaking from a technical point of view, since the SP held above trend-line support at 1122, and given the strong breadth that accompanied Friday's rally (over 2000 net advancing issues), in combination with the rising Thrust Oscillators, the odds favoring continuation are better then even! Consequently, as we said last week, we ought to trade on the long side with a stop loss at the support levels indicated in the table below. We got two concerns going forward; one is the lack of total concern among market participants, and the other is the fact that the McClellan Oscillator got to the -200 zone for the NYSE. Usually when it gets to that level, we get a rally up to the zero line, and then it turns back down again. In summary, the technicals and the price action are telling us to be bullish. At the same time, the action by the McClellan Oscillator and the lack of bearishness on behalf of market participants also suggest that we need to keep trailing stops on long positions.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.05 Change +0.21 (+0.24%)

related article:

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/02/11/1076388438686.html

Speculation that China is about to revalue renminbi

A Chinese commitment to maintain a "basically stable" currency has been interpreted by financial markets to mean exactly the reverse, fuelling speculation that the renminbi would be revalued upward as early as next month.

China Central Television reported the comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao yesterday after a closed- door meeting of financial market regulators in Beijing.

It follows a call for flexible exchange rate policies by the Group of Seven and strong pressure from the US to redress a $US100 billion ($128 billion) two-way trade deficit.

<snip>

The official China Business Post and investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, have predicted Beijing would soon allow the renmimbi to rise by 5 per cent.

Last month, officials from China's National Bureau of Statistics said there was "no chance" of this and speculators banking on a rise "will be burned".

Other economists say China will move but will go out of its way to show that it had not been pushed into doing so.

...more...

There were lots of articles out there that say the market is awaiting the Greenspin goop-speak mumbo jumbo - but as we already know what he is going to say, that makes very little sense. I think the question would be more appropriately asked: How much will the BoJ toss into the ring to keep the yen/dollar equation above 105.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

4. More speculation. So, will folks report being "surprised" when

nothing happens as they were "surprised" by yesterdays OPEC announcement?

JMHO, but I tend to agree with this part. Blaming China's peg is only serving political purposes and it's removal would do little to help the trade imbalance.

A one-off 10 per cent appreciation of the renminbi (also called the yuan) would reduce domestic demand, introduce short-term deflation and reduce demand for imports, thereby failing to improve the US trade balance.

"As other countries realise that Chinese appreciation is no panacea for their imbalances, and that the renminbi is appreciating anyway, so calls for Chinese authorities to revalue the yuan will diminish," the study says.


The last line in that article was interesting, I think more and more nations are feeling the same.

"They are willing to make a change but just want to do it at a time of their own choice," said Citigroup economist Huang Yiping. "They don't want to be pushed around by foreigners."

[Merlin]

12. China unplugging from the dollar = TIT; US discouraging Taiwan= = TAT

Look for US officials to make the first move here, in the form of attempting to force Taiwan to forego the use of the referendum and specifically any vote on sentiments against China's missiles aimed at Taiwan.

It is a sell-out of the first order.

Queries:

Will China's de-linking be, ironically, the first step in a world-wide move away from the dollar and toward the Euro as the international currency of reference?

How soon before the Yuan becomes the bellweather currency? 2 decades? 5?

[54anickel]

3. Good morning Ozy, UIA and all

I needed to take a bit of time this morning to go back and finish reading some of the referenced articles from yesterdays thread. I fell a bit behind yesterday. I will try to keep up on my reading today. B-)

[ozymandius]

5. 9:45 - yesterday's gains going away

Dow 10,578.96 -34.89 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,073.79 -1.54 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,143.07 -2.47 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.128% +0.026

[JNelson6563]

6. Ouch! A grim beginning

Good morning all--

Well things don't look as bright and shiney as some would like but I am sure someone will announce massive lay-offs and we can all get rich off the "good" news. ;-)

UpInArms and 54anickel, I really have enjoyed reading all the posts you guys have gone to the trouble to write. You rock!!

I've got a board meeting later so I am trying to get myself and all my data together so I can present another fab report on the membership front. I signed up 72 new members over the weekend at the caucus and they were pretty fired up. So much so that we also took in lots of $$$. My mailing from last fall cost about $300 and I took in almost $3000. I'd like to see Wall Street replicate THOSE kinda returns! haha

To a successful revolution! :toast:

Julie

[54anickel]

8. To a successful revolution! Indeed! Great return on that mailing too!

Getting pretty exciting over here in Wisconsin now. I expect a huge turn out next week. Looking forward to casting that ballot for the over throw of the Bushco regime. :bounce:

:yourock:

[llmart]

27. Way to go Julie!

I've been curious about what the numbers show for Michigan's caucus. How did the turnout compare to what we normally get? I worked at a caucus site in Macomb County and turnout in this mostly Repug area was great!

[54anickel]

7. What's going on with Russia? Poppy & Baker?

This was posted in the Economic Forum, thought maybe some here might have some thoughts.

Original post:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=114&topic_id=5620

Direct link to article:
http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/89/358/12018_dollar.html

US to take over Russian Stabilization Fund
02/10/2004 16:25
Russia continues investing all its profits in the US economy
Russian government has always been proud of its innovation - Stabilization Fund, but lately this fund started causing problems. Indeed, there is no reason to convert extra revenues of national economy into US dollars and accumulate them in the special fund provided that the US dollar is steadily depreciating.

The amount of money in the Stabilization Fund exceeded the most optimistic prognoses of the government analysts. On February 1, 2003 the fund had 106.3 billion roubles (about $3.5 billion). The Fund will pile up money even faster than today if oil price do not decrease (and the decrease is unlikely to take place in the 6 months to come).

However, independent experts are do not share the joy of the government financiers. Russian government does not seem to believe in the perspectives for Euro and strengthening Russian rouble, therefore the government continues converting the Stabilization Fund assets into the US dollars. However, the dollar is decreasing. The last meeting of the G7 countries demonstrated that the world economic leaders are not going to undertake any measures to stop depreciating US dollar. For Russian Stabilization Fund this means no profit at best and losses at worst case scenario. This does not look like the government"s achievement.

snip>
Russian government says the Stabilization Fund is designated for next generations. All additional state budget revenues are supposed to be accumulated in the fund if the oil price is higher than 20 dollars per barrel. Today oil price is much higher - one barrel of Russian Urals oil is sold at the price about $30. Naturally, the government has no problem with filling this "next generation fund". However, there is another problem.

snip>
According to her, all operations will be conducted in accordance with the law. Russian legislation allows to invest the Stabilization Fund money only in the most valuable stock. What kind of stock? The ones Russian government has always invested all its finance in - US state treasure borrowings in dollars. Most Russian gold and exchange currency reserves have already been invested in them. This means that Russian main financial assets - its gold and exchange currency reserves - are working for the US economy, and these reserves are depreciating along with the US dollar. The government is going to place its stabilization fund resources in this very "hole".

High-ranking Russian government officials seem to be losing their mind from time to time. The President could hardly mean investing in the US treasure borrowings when he told the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance to establish the Stabilization Fund. Were there any secret reasons for Russia, who like a whore is giving all its revenues to the American master?

more....

I was looking for some follow up, and all I could find so far was this:

http://newsfromrussia.com/main/2004/02/11/52239.html

Euro goes down
Following today's special euro session, the weighted average exchange rate of the European currency reached EUR/RUR36.21, which is 0.21 rubles below the official euro rate set by the Central Bank of Russia for February 11. In other words, it is for the first time over the past three working days that the euro lost its position against the ruble on the domestic market. It is worth mentioning that on February 6, 9, and 10, it was the ruble that was falling against the euro, loosing 0.69 rubles in total.

The euro loosing its position against the ruble is prompted by the dollar moving up against the euro on international exchanges. Currently, the euro is traded at $1.2680, against $1.2780 yesterday. Consequently, the US dollar has edged up some 0.8 percent against the European currency since yesterday.

The weighted average dollar exchange rate with tomorrow settlements amounted to RUR28.53 as of 11:30 Moscow time, driving the official dollar rate set for February 12 up by RUR0.02, which is exactly equal to yesterday's rise in the dollar.

There were few reasons for this growth in the dollar rate however....

more...

[UpInArms]

9. Carlyle's moving around in Russian circles

these days

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A43428-2004Jan23¬Found=true

Carlyle Group hired Andrei Terekhov to help raise and manage a $300 million fund to buy companies in Russia, less than three months after the firm scrapped a plan to start one with Moscow-based Alfa Group. Terekhov, 38, joins Carlyle from Moscow-based private equity firm Baring Vostok Capital Partners. Washington- based Carlyle said it is recruiting a second managing director to help run the fund.

http://www.iht.com/cgi-bin/generic.cgi?template=articleprint.tmplh&ArticleId=126689

Carlyle is expanding operations in less-crowded private equity markets like Russia and China to make investments that it says it expects to generate returns for the next 10 years. The company plans to start a $300 million fund in Russia this year, Rubenstein said.

[ozymandius]

10. 10:44 numbers and blather

Dow 10,612.81 -1.04 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,065.82 -9.51 (-0.46%)
S&P 500 1,143.36 -2.18 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.131% +0.029

U.S. stocks in opening slide

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks opened in the red Wednesday as a $66 billion bid for Walt Disney and a better-than-expected profit report from Coca-Cola failed to inspire investors.

"The main focus of the day will be Greenspan, especially his comments during the Q&A," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst and strategist at S.W. Bach. "Investors will want to know exactly what the Fed means by being "patient" on interest rates and whether job creation is finally catching up with the rest of the economic expansion."

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will begin his two-day testimony to Congress on the state of the economy at 11:00 eastern.

story here

[54anickel]

11. Oh look, they touched on one of my favorite topics.

"It's nice to see M&A activity back in the markets. It shows companies have cash," said Brian Williamson, vice-president of equity trading at Boston Company Asset Management. "It also fuels speculation on whether or not there are other companies in the sector which are possible takeover targets."

[ozymandius]

13. Look at that SPIKE!

11:22
Dow 10,680.14 +66.29 (+0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,080.03 +4.70 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,151.44 +5.90 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.122% +0.020

[Frodo]

14. Greenspan opened his mouth.

``The picture has brightened,'' Greenspan said in the text of testimony to the House Banking and Financial Services Committee. ``The prospects are good for sustained expansion of the U.S. economy.''

"The Fed's estimate is that the unemployment rate would average 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter."


But take a look at the dollar:
?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=f&w=5&a=2&v=s

[54anickel]

15. What'd Greenspin have to say?

[htuttle]

17. But what's up with gold and the dollar?

At the same time equities spiked, so did gold, and the dollar started dropping pretty fast. I used to think those were contrary movements.

What's up with that? Were some people were happy with Greenspan, and bought stocks, while others were unhappy, and bought gold (and sold dollars)?

[54anickel]

23. That dollar/gold inverse expectation has not been as rock solid in the

past few months. On more and more occassions you'll see that "rule" broken these days. There seem to be more inputs into that formula than in the past 20 to 30 years.

[UpInArms]

24. but Greenspin said that the dollar

should be great for us as it becomes worth less (or was that worthless?)

Last trade 85.54 Change -0.30 (-0.35%)

[UpInArms]

16. Greenspin mumbles

http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2004/02/11/rtr1255712.html

Dollar to hit US import prices eventually- Greenspan

WASHINGTON, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday the dollar's steep slide had not yet fed into higher U.S. inflation via import prices, but he warned this could not continue indefinitely.

In his semi-annual address to Congress, Greenspan said low inflation had been "especially notable" given the dollar's 13 percent slide against a broad basket of currencies from early 2002.

He argued import prices might have been shielded from this fall because foreign exporters may have swallowed currency-related costs to protect their market share, with profit margins helped by short-term currency hedging. This, however, cannot go on forever, the central bank chief said.

<snip>

"Accordingly, the currency depreciation we have experienced of late should eventually help contain our current account deficit as foreign producers export less to the United States. On the other side of the ledger, the current account should improve as U.S. firms find the export market more receptive," he said.

Wheeee!!!! The markets are free!!!!! No need to tighten the monetary belt!

[htuttle]

18. Has he checked gas prices lately? (n/t)

[UpInArms]

21. they take the energy prices

out of the CPI now - it is "too volatile a commodity" to use in a chart that should show volatility. (irony is dead - long live irony!)

[UpInArms]

26. from the "Well Duh" Department

http://www.iht.com/cgi-bin/generic.cgi?template=articleprint.tmplh&ArticleId=129121

excerpt:

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on Tuesday to reduce output to try to keep oil prices stable when warmer weather erodes demand in the United States and other major importing countries. The combined cuts, if effective, would squeeze OPEC's actual production by as much as 10 percent, or 2.5 million barrels a day.

"What this means is that consumers are going to carry on paying loads of money for their gasoline for quite some time," said Jan Stuart of Fimat USA, a New York-based brokerage.

Economists said that OPEC's production cut, while unlikely to push prices up enough to damage the world economy, could hamper its recovery.

"Generally, lower oil prices are better for the economy than higher prices," said Joel Prakker, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm in St. Louis, Missouri. "That said, oil at $33 a barrel is not the end of the economy. It just means it won't grow as fast as if prices were falling or were $20."

<snip>

The April cut in production could bite even deeper into consumers' wallets, added Michael Rothman of Merrill Lynch.

"In the near term, it means prices will be rising higher," he said from his New York office.

...more...

[54anickel]

20. Time to hit Skinner up for that credit card again and SHOP!

[UpInArms]

22. let's shop and roll!

[54anickel]

19. Great. Looks like a race in monetary expansion until the last man

falls.

http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2004/02/11/rtr1255712.html

WASHINGTON, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday the dollar's steep slide had not yet fed into higher U.S. inflation via import prices, but he warned this could not continue indefinitely.

In his semi-annual address to Congress, Greenspan said low inflation had been "especially notable" given the dollar's 13 percent slide against a broad basket of currencies from early 2002.

He argued import prices might have been shielded from this fall because foreign exporters may have swallowed currency-related costs to protect their market share, with profit margins helped by short-term currency hedging. This, however, cannot go on forever, the central bank chief said.

snip>
"Accordingly, the currency depreciation we have experienced of late should eventually help contain our current account deficit as foreign producers export less to the United States. On the other side of the ledger, the current account should improve as U.S. firms find the export market more receptive," he said.


On that last part, wasn't our increase in exports last report due to a large purchase of aircraft?

[UpInArms]

25. more Greenspin

http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2004/02/11/rtr1255730.html

US rate futures climb as Greenspan urges patience


In his semi-annual testimony to Congress on the economy, Greenspan said the Fed could remain patient in tightening monetary policy, even though the U.S. economy was headed toward vigorous growth.

...more...

[54anickel]

28. Now here's some economists speaking with a voice of reason IMHO

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2004/02/11/2003098358

The US economy is enjoying a growth spurt that will not last beyond this year because it is driven by military spending and tax cuts while the George W. Bush administration turns a blind eye to a looming deficit crisis, American economists said in Havana on Monday.

"Developing countries that still rely on the American market as an engine of growth should be cautious about expecting too much after 2004," said University of Texas professor James Galbraith at an annual economists conference on globalization issues hosted by Cuba.

snip>
"The current administration in Washington is making no serious effort to deal with the looming failure of its programs," McFadden said in a lecture to 1,300 economists from 43 countries.

"There is a high risk that social and financial turmoil will result, threatening the continued prosperity of the US economy and the stability of the globalized markets in which it is a key player," he said.

snip>
McFadden said the unregulated flow of speculative "hot money" had created global financial volatility and burdened developing nations with unpayable debt and attacks on national currencies.

The support provided to nations in difficulties by the International Monetary Fund is often "cold comfort" due to painful austerity demanded in return for bailouts.

"We need to cool down hot money, keeping long term flows while reducing short term volatility, and warm up the cold comfort currently provided by the IMF to countries that are in trouble," he said.

[UpInArms]

29. I wish McFadden had more clout within our Fed

'cause this wretched piece of shit has caused a definite fall in the dollar (INO is not working correctly, but as of 30 minutes ago the dollar was at 85.12

http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2004/02/11/rtr1255790.html

Dollar drops on Greenspan current account remark

CHICAGO, Feb 11 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against the euro on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. currency's decline should help narrow the gaping U.S. current account gap.

The Fed chief, in his semi-annual report on monetary policy to the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, said the economy has turned the corner to vigorous growth but policymakers can be patient about raising interest rates.

It was his comment about the dollar's impact on the current account gap, however, that sent the euro to a fresh session high against the dollar and sterling to a new 11-year high.

A weaker dollar makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive, which should narrow the U.S. trade deficit, a major component of the current account.

"That is the most direct comment that I've seen Greenspan make in a very long time," said Bob Priore, desk manager at Carr Futures in Chicago. "It takes the place of any G7 statement. This will force the hand of the European community to tell us what they really think."

...more...

[54anickel]

30. ARRRRGH!

This will force the hand of the European community to tell us what they really think."

A weaker dollar makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive, which should narrow the U.S. trade deficit, a major component of the current account.

the economy has turned the corner to vigorous growth

The Bush administration has forecast a record $521 billion deficit this year, adding to the dollar's woes, but has vowed to halve that by 2009.


:bangingheadagainstwallsmileythingy:

[UpInArms]

33. here - let me help

:argh: :spank: :7

[54anickel]

34. Snarf! Thanks!!!

[54anickel]

32. I'm guessing the BoJ stepped in as the yen was 105.18 and now is

at 105.34 dropping to 105.31 on last trade. Not getting much bang for the yen anymore and that 105.18 was just too damn close to that 105 stop-loss trigger for my comfort.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[54anickel]

35. USDJPY GENETIC ALGORITHMS

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/102610/content.asp?menu=technicalanalysis&dia=1122004

Wednesday February 11, 2004 : NEW SIGNAL : OPEN SHORT USDJPY POSITION
Yeneticus attacks again (and again). At 11:45 hrs. european (spanish) time with USDJPY bidded at 105.53 we have a SIGNAL TO OPEN A SHORT USDJPY POSITION.


What is this, war games? :eyes:

[ozymandius]

36. whaa???

I followed your link. Then I googled "USDJPY definition" and got:

USDJPY US Dollar / Japanese Yen "Dollar Yen"

Then I found this:

In contrast to Equities, the other capital markets mentioned above are more naturally ambidextrous: In FX, for example, going long USD against JPY is by definition simultaneously going Short JPY against USD. Moreover, a trader can choose to go long USDJPY or short USDJPY with equal ability.

One can also see this symmetry with interest rates, where a purchase of 3-mo Treasury Bills is effectively an exchange of one type of currency/money/collateral for another: going long the Treasury Bills is simultaneously going short the Dollar Bills, and going short the Treasury Bills (ie. borrowing them to sell) is the same as going long the Dollar Bills (raised from the sale). This cash market is not 100% as naturally ambidextrous as the FX market, but the restrictions related to supply for loans are not as contrived as with Equities.

Now, we can see in the Stock Market that a selling panic can certainly be matched by a buying panic: Essentially, if one views the purchase of Shares as an exchange of small rectangular pieces of engraved green paper (or colourful plastic in Australia!) for larger squarish pieces of engraved white paper -- really no different than delivering Dollars for Yen -- then one can appreciate that a bull market in the price of the Shares is simultaneously a bear market in the price of the Dollars used to measure the Shares. That is, going long Shares is by definition going short Dollars, and going short Shares is by definition going long Dollars. Hence, if there is a panic selling of Shares, it involves a panic buying of Dollars ... and quite naturally, a panic buying of Shares involves a panic selling of Dollars. Since panic selling has already been accepted in principle, it follows that panic selling of Dollars is permitted, and this is simply an unusual way of describing what amounts in reality to a panic buying of Shares.

I still don't know what to make of it.

EDIT: Many sites in Russian popped up.

[54anickel]

38. I don't know what it is Ozy. I stumbled across the link while looking

for something on BoJ intervention shortly after Greenspin. I thought it looked pretty odd, especially the "Hollerin" part so figured I'd toss it out here. :shrug:

Lots of Russian pop ups, hey? Hmmm, did Russia give us that 3.5 BILLION in funds to help cover a panic sell of dollars? NAH! :tinfoilhat:

[54anickel]

39. For crying out loud! I didn't know this.

If you follow that itty bitty link under the all caps title

Wednesday February 11, 2004
Real time report.
By Neuronal Systems
http://www.neuronalsystems.com

You find that Forex is powered by an artificial intelligence network. No wonder they get a bit worried about those "trigger" points. Snoop around, it's kind of interesting.

http://www.neuronalsystems.com/

[ozymandius]

37. at 1:42

Dow 10,686.44 +72.59 (+0.68%)
Nasdaq 2,080.92 +5.59 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,152.94 +7.40 (+0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 4.008% -0.094

[ozymandius]

40. Greenspan must have promised them the sun and moon - update #s

2:36
Dow 10,729.10 +115.25 (+1.09%)
Nasdaq 2,085.12 +9.79 (+0.47%)
S&P 500 1,156.45 +10.91 (+0.95%)
10-Yr Bond 3.994% -0.108

[54anickel]

41. Ahhh, the beauty of speculative investing. You can completely

ignore the basic fundamentals and still make a ton of cash.
:evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

42. and up...

2:51
Dow 10,734.14 +120.29 (+1.13%)
Nasdaq 2,087.27 +11.94 (+0.58%)
S&P 500 1,157.43 +11.89 (+1.04%)
10-Yr Bond 3.997% -0.105

[54anickel]

43. Bit more in the currency markets

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20040211-001055-1405

snip>
"Although the foreign exchange value of the dollar has fallen over the past year, the decline generally has been gradual, and no material adverse side effects have been visible in U.S. capital markets," Mr. Greenspan said in testimony prepared for the U.S. House of Representatives' Committee on Financial Services.

snip>
"He's not saying anything particularly hawkish about the economy, and that's taking down yields," Mr. Englander said. "And it doesn't sound like the Fed is concerned about the dollar."

snip>
The dollar also hit a fresh three-year low at about 105.20 yen, but bounced back almost immediately to 105.37 yen, still below 105.65 yen just prior to Mr. Greenspan's remarks.

Traders said they suspected that the Bank of Japan, which intervenes on behalf of Japan's Ministry of Finance, provided some covert support at the lows through Japanese agent banks.

"People were playing with the BOJ and trying to see if they were really committed to capping the yen, and so far it looks like they have," said a market source.

snip>
With the dollar at these low levels, dealers short of the currency are taking profits and will also become more aware of the threat of intervention from central banks around the world keen to prevent their own currencies from appreciating to fast too soon.

more...

[ozymandius]

44. Have a great afternoon 54anickel and all!

I am signing off. Family is flying in from LA today and we need to get ourselves ready for the day's activities.

See you in the morning! :hi:

Ozy

[54anickel]

45. 3:39 numbers & blather

Dow 10,735.33 +121.48 (+1.14%)
Nasdaq 2,086.61 +11.28 (+0.54%)
S&P 500 1,157.29 +11.75 (+1.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.021% -0.081

3:30PM: Sellers continue to contribute little to this session as the indices remain at significantly higher levels... Greenspan's monetary report has placated fears about an interest rate increase over the near-term, and unleashed buying interest after two sessions of unimpressive trade... The market may not see gains of this magnitude tomorrow - as Greenspan's report to the Senate Banking Committee is expected to be along the same lines - but it is encouraging that it responded favorably to his assessment of the economy...
Tomorrow, the market will also take into account weekly initial claims, December Business Inventories, and the January Retail Sales report...NYSE Adv/Dec 2210/1080, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1805/1352

[UpInArms]

46. and the dollar

says:

"Help! I've fallen and I can't get up!"

Last trade 85.17 Change -0.67 (-0.78%)

[54anickel]

47. Ker-plunk. And that puts it just about back to the all time low we had

in the first part of January.

On edit add:
That was just before this crazy "Rally" that start just as UIA returned from vacation.

[54anickel]

48. Hmmm, BoJ was effected by a holiday today?

Must have been all that automated artificial intelligence stuff kicking in. :shrug: :tinfoilhat:

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/2377/content.asp?menu=market&dia=1122004

The yen was confined to another narrow range vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today, principally on account of Japan’s national Foundation Day holiday. Traders lifted the greenback to an intraday high around the ¥105.70 level during North American dealing but the pair came off following the release of Fed Chairman Greenspan’s testimony, dropping to the ¥105.35 level. Greenspan’s comments about foreign exchange suggested a complacency of sorts with the dollar’s effects on the economy. Dealers continued to cite talk of dollar bids from BoJ around the ¥105.20/ 30 level, the same area where official Japanese demand has been seen for weeks. Many market participants believe the BoJ’s ability to sell yen is reduced during Japanese holidays such as today’s and this may or may not be true. Options traders cite the a large ¥ 104.00 expiry at 1500 GMT today. Additional strikes are seen around the ¥105.45/ 50 level. Dollar bids are seen around the ¥105.20 level. The euro spiked significantly higher vis-à-vis the yen today as the single currency spiked higher to the ¥135.00 figure after the release of Fed Chairman Greenspan’s testimony. The cross was trading around the ¥133.90 level prior to that release.

[54anickel]

49. Japan Can Rise Above A Rising Yen

Companies are stronger -- and less dependent on U.S. trade -- than ever

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_07/b3870080.htm
snip>
Japan's finance mandarins should relax. The Japanese can't change the U.S. budget and trade deficits, the real reasons for the dollar's fall. More important, the BOJ's actions reveal an almost hysterical insistence that Japan's trading relationship with the U.S., which accounts for a quarter of its overall trade, just can't function without a weak yen to boost its shipments of DVD recorders, digital cameras, and cars. The fact is, Japan is a lot tougher than the government's actions would indicate -- tough enough to take a stronger yen.

Hard to believe? Talk to some of Japan's top executives, and you'll find a surprising level of equanimity. Big exporters, such as Honda Motor Co. (HMC ), are confident that they'll be able to stay profitable "even at a rate as low as 100 yen to the dollar," says Satoshi Aoki, Honda's senior managing director for finance. "There's not nearly as much impact as in the past."

The reasons are clear. For one thing, Honda and other Japanese auto makers have spent years bolstering their defenses against a weaker dollar. They've shifted production from Japan to key markets such as the U.S. and increased local procurement of parts. Yen swings just don't affect sales generated by those Japanese factories in Alabama and Ohio.

The best-run factories in Japan are less affected, too. After years of quiet restructuring, the consequences of a rising currency aren't what they were. Production has been trimmed and job growth rolled back. The result: Although statistics are hard to come by, Japan's manufacturing productivity appears to be on the rise -- and with it the ability to absorb the shock from a stronger currency. For instance, Canon Inc. came through the latest round of endaka, or yen appreciation, with flying colors, posting a record net profit of $2.62 billion for 2003. It offset $70 million in currency-related losses with a $1 billion belt-tightening drive, in the process boosting output per worker.

The other factor in Japan's favor is that the U.S. is no longer the be-all and end-all of its trade policy. Japanese auto makers and other companies have sought out new business in other Asian markets, such as China. Plus, Japan is benefiting from a decline in the value of its currency against the euro -- the yen fell 7.7% against the euro last year -- which is providing a crucial boost to exports bound for the euro zone. The upshot: Japan Inc. is in its strongest position in years, weak dollar or no. "The Japanese economy is much less sensitive to the yen-dollar relationship than it used to be," says Peter Morgan, chief economist at HSBC Securities Inc. in Tokyo.

more...

[ze_dscherman]

51. German exports surge in 2003 // Strong euro hits German US exports

WIESBADEN - Germany's export sector remained a major economic pillar in 2003, exporting a record-high EUR 661.6 billion worth of goods, officials reported Wednesday.

The Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said the figure was up by 1.6 percent on the 2002 export volume of EUR 651.3 billion with the exports growth defying the rise in the value of the euro thanks to strong trade within the European Union.
SNIP

http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=52&story...

Yesterday it was reported that German exports to the U.S. plunged, but the U.S. market takes only 10% of German exports:

WIESBADEN - Apparently feeling the effects of the strong euro, German exports to the United States plunged by 14.1 percent year-on-year in November, officials reported Tuesday.

The Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden at the same time reported strong growth in Germany's import-export trade relations with China and eastern Europe.

The office said that German exports to the US in November weighed in at EUR three billion. The 11-month figure reached EUR 57 billion, down 10.1 percent from the same January-November 2002 period.
SNIP

http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=52&story...

[54anickel]

52. Hey hey! Good news. The EU should be able to relax bit. I hope

they do not follow Japan in messing with their domestic economics based on the dollars fall. I saw were there was speculation that EU was also considering currency intervention or dropping their interest rate. Here's hoping they can "hang tough".

[aneerkoinos]

53. Euro and Yen

I've been thinking about this for a long time. US and Dollar is more of a sideshow (do they make exportable stuff there? is there anybody believing US can keep up consumtpion at current rate?), the real fight is between the strong manufactors of Europe and East Asia competing for emerging markets, and Japan and others have tried to gain advantage over Europe by currency manipulation. The strategy for ECB should be obvious, when BoJ buys worthless dollars, ECB buys Yen matchingly and makes a nice profit on the side. How long do you think BoJ could fight against this aggressive strategy?

[54anickel]

54. Hi Aneerkoinos, Interesting angle

Ozy once brought up the thought that EU and BoJ were somehow planning to work together to slow the dollars slide, but that was months ago and things sure change fast these days.

I've not thought about that possibility. I've thought about the rest of the world pretty much writing off having to worry about competing with US exports (can't think of a lot of them anymore). But yes, there would be competition for exports to the emerging markets.

JMHO, I don't think Japan has been plotting against Europe. I believe they truly were and are concerned about slipping back into deflation. From what I understand deflation is miserable and extremely difficult to overcome once it starts.

That said, I think Japan is finding that it's going to make it out of this OK and that continuing this crazy business of expanding their money supply to throw those freshly printed yen away on greenbacks is a lost cause. They've not lost that much market share to China and could stand a bit of a rise in the yen. Once they get their confidence up, look out Europe her she comes!

I think there is enough market share to go around for Europe, Japan and the US (should we get rid of the Idiot Son of an Asshole and get back to exporting goods & services instead of jobs, equities and securities) to fairly compete for exports. It is China that all need to be concerned about right now as they can produce so cheaply with the lack of labor and environmental standards.

[54anickel]

50. Final numbers

Dow 10,737.70 +123.85 (+1.17%)
Nasdaq 2,089.66 +14.33 (+0.69%)
S&P 500 1,157.76 +12.22 (+1.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.021% -0.081

Have a great night. :hi: