Worst job losses in almost three decades expected

[Omaha Steve]

Source: MarketWatch

Manufacturing, services activity also headed lower, forecasts say
By Ruth Mantell
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The gainfully employed have good reason to give thanks this holiday season.
More than one million jobs have been lost this year through October, according to the Labor Department. And the upcoming November employment report is expected to show a loss of another 350,000 jobs, according to analysts surveyed by MarketWatch. A decrease of 350,000 would be the largest drop since May 1980, when more than 400,000 jobs were shed.

Economists are basing their gloomy forecasts in part on the uncomfortably high levels of first-time filings for state unemployment insurance benefits. These weekly initial jobless claims have vaulted over the half-million mark -- up more than 50% from last year -- and are way above a level of about 300,000 to 325,000 that is seen as consistent with healthy job growth.
Economists at IHS Global Insight have a particular gloomy outlook for nonfarm payrolls, and are looking for a "huge" decline of 370,000, despite a boost of about 27,000 from Boeing workers returning from strikes.
"Unemployment insurance claims have climbed rapidly as businesses are shedding labor, and hiring is anemic," Global Insight analysts wrote in a research note. "Retail employment is likely to fall very sharply since the usual seasonal uptick in hiring will be muted -- translating into a steep seasonally adjusted decline."


Read more: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/worst-job-losses-almost-three/story.aspx?guid={9318D669-4188-4756-94AC-6ACB011F4429}

[TomInTib]

1. 20,000 retail doors are expected to close in 2009.

A friend of mine is with the largest retail liquidator in the Nation, and that is their projection for next year.

I hope ours are not two of those doors.

[Jane Austin]

3. I hope ours isn't either.

Or yours, Tom.

I'm hoping the drop in business can be offset by not ordering too much product and by not having to pay too much overtime (and a half, of course) during the Holiday rush.

We don't hire extra people this time of year, but everybody has to work long hours and weekends, usually.

This year, so far, we've avoided overtime.

I do fear that a number of our vendors - dog toy manufacturers, dog-themed giftware and clothing - will go out of business. :(

I'll find out at the January gift market.

Good luck to all of you small business owners!

[TomInTib]

6. What Winter Show(s) do you attend?

I will probably hit Dallas, Atlanta, Vegas, and, regrettably, San Francisco (before it is finally put out of its misery).

I gather your business is pet-related. Let me know, and if I find anything new, I will pick up some info for you. I used to do 30 Shows a year, and know my way around a bit.

[Jane Austin]

9. Just Dallas in the winter.

I never get to see everything there, so I'd be much obliged if you'd note anything for me.

Do you attend as an exhibitor or buyer?

I used to go to the Toy Fair at Javitz when we had dogs showing at Westminster. They were always the same week, but I haven't been in several years.

I go to the Backer Pet Trade shows and I try to get to the Stationery show every year, but don't aways make it.

Thanks for your offer!

[TomInTib]

12. I used to have showrooms in Dallas.

Home & Garden Marketing and OutsideIn.

But I are a buyer, now.

[Jane Austin]

21. Showrooms that have been there forever are disappearing. :( n/t

[nevergiveup]

5. We are close to closing our doors

after 35 years. Customers expect everything below cost. Our traffic this week-end was way below anything I have seen. Everyone was at Walmart and Kohls. Many of my suppliers (small American companies) are in huge trouble. There will not be many small Ma & Pa retailers remaining after the dust has settled.

[nbcouch]

8. You're a Mom & Pop shop

and you're still in business - after nearly 30 years of unrelenting Corporatism? You are to be congratulated for surviving THIS long, for resisting the homogenization of Main Street into just another strip mall of big boxes and franchises.

[nevergiveup]

10. Thank you

I quit teaching and opened a store in 1975. It has been a struggle and hours beyond belief but we did establish a very successful business. We have four employees (families) depending on our success. We saw steady gains for 30 years but 2 years ago things leveled off and this year sales are down drastically. We will try to hang on through the melt-down but it is going to be very difficult.

[Sherman A1]

27. You have done extremely well lasting 35 years, but I know

that is no consolation for having to look at the end. I closed my retail hobby/game store after 18 years (in Spring of 2001) and while I felt we had outlasted the odds, it didn't make me feel any better having to close the doors. Our market had just disappeared and I had made enough mistakes along the way that proved to be too costly to the business. I will tell you that, we had a great going out of business sale over 5 weeks (actually had to order more product to get to the end), saw lots of old customers come by and wish us well, had a big "Irish Wake" on the last day with an auction to finish off what was left in inventory, paid off all the bill, gave the help a bit extra and had some left for the original investors.

The upside personally, was having to work only one job again, not having to be the 'one man band" for everything, marketing, sales, merchandising, planning, accounting, bookkeeping, etc, etc.... felt much better when it was all over.

I do miss the Friday after Thanksgiving, as we would not only do pretty good business, but would see many an old customer come by who was visiting family over the holiday.


Best of Luck to You and grab whatever positive you can out of the situation. You did the best you could and that's all you could have done.


:toast:

[Donnachaidh]

2. "hiring is anemic"??? WTF?

It's non-existant in my area. Even the temp agencies are seeing lines out the door when they advertise ONE job opening.

It's time someone in the MSM grow a set of bollocks and admit we are in a DEPRESSION.

[Jane Austin]

4. I don't think they're even admitting we're in

a recession, yet!

[OhioChick]

19. Same here

And has been for some time.

[llmart]

7. The Bush legacy......

I thinked he topped his ole' man on this one.

[MadMaddie]

11. 30 years of Republican Rule that adds up just about right

Rebublicans war against the middle class, any minority, workers rights and unions has led us the this "Depression".

While everyone is trying to play nice, I say we need to place the blame where it belongs. Deregulation started during the Reagan years escalated under the following Republican congresses. The Dems in leadership positions in Congress didn't put up a fight. Those few Dems that did put up a fight were ignored.

This is the Republican Free Market at it's best and we need to remind them of it every chance we get.

[silverojo]

24. Every time, Republicans' failed policies cause a Depression

Then a Democrat is elected and called upon, to fix the mess.

Sound familiar? The Great Depression 2: The Sequel.

[tomhayes]

13. I got laid off in November

Along with 300 other people :(

[TalkingDog]

15. Welcome to DU tomhayes

Sorry to hear about the lay-offs. Times are indeed tough.

We ain't got much here except a "Welcome friend" to offer you.

Glad you decided to join us.

[sarcasmo]

20. Been out of work since April, good luck.

[Doctor_J]

14. According to Dana Whorino and Cabal "News", this would improve if

these people would just get jobs. :crazy:

[benld74]

16. AND WHOCOULDANODE?

[CountAllVotes]

17. there was a small encampment near the grocery store the other day

and it was people that had nowhere to go it seemed to me. Very sad indeed. :(

The food bank is not far from where they were located. Maybe they were waiting for it to open I thought.

Happy Thanksgiving huh?

:dem: :kick:

[DollyM]

18. In regards to Wal-mart, an interesting thing is happening . . .

We live in a small town and can drive to one of two wal-mart stores, one is 10 miles away, the other is five. The store farther away just went through their remodel and did away with their fabric department. They also did away with curtain rods and blinds and plan to do away with more household items like that. The store five miles away will also do away with their fabric department when they remodel. That means the nearest wm with a fabric department will be 25 miles away until they remodel . . . you get the picture. Soon I will have to drive 70 miles to get a spool of thread or a piece of fabric. Wal-mart drove out all the mom and pop fabric stores and now they are not going to offer it at all. I wonder if we will see a resurgence of small business that will come back and open small shops to meet these needs again. One can only hope.

[defendandprotect]

23. So much destroyed by capitalism ...corporatism ---

[Zhade]

25. Order online -- and not from wal-mart.

NT!

[defendandprotect]

22. We may have Congress but they're taking the Treasury with them --

leaving us with 2 wars for profit and an overempowered and bloated Pentagon --

War & bankruptcy ---

Remember peace and the surplus ---???

[pfitz59]

26. This weekends Help Wanted section in the paper

4 pages! Half healthcare and high tech. In an area with almost 2 million people! Only a couple hundred advertised jobs! Sucks...