STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday December 4

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday December 4, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 47
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2591 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2888
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 3, 2008

Dow... 8,591.69 +172.60 (+2.05%)
Nasdaq... 1,492.38 +42.58 (+2.94%)
S&P 500... 870.74 +21.93 (+2.58%)
Gold future... 770.50 -12.80 (-1.66%)
30-Year Bond 3.18% -0.02 (-0.56%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.68% -0.02 (-0.63%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[truthisfreedom]

1. My Prediction for the Stock Market Today:

A lot of up (or down) for a bit, followed by a lot of down (or up) for a bit, which will repeat most of the day, drastically, until it ends either up or down. Tomorrow, the opposite may happen, or more of the same.

America's stock market is suffering from shaken baby syndrome.

[ozymandius]

3. You need your own tee-vee show.

People are paid lots of money to say words like that on the tee-vee. Your prediction is a great deal more accurate than Kudlow's and Kramer's.

[lapfog_1]

16. In the weather... tonights forecast is dark, followed by widely scattered light in the morning. n/t

[AnneD]

40. Morning Marketeers.......

:donut: I don't know about you guys, but I was a bit underwhelmed about them finally saying that we have been in a recession since last DEC. Why did it take them so long to polish that turd as we say in Texas. The SMW was saying we were heading into one a full year before it hit and have said we were in one all this last year. Many have already made adjustments as they could. So now it is official-we are in a recession.:eyes:

I heard something yesterday that really stuck in my mind. Paulsen and Congress would rather help folks that have to take a shower before they go to work and not those that have to shower after they get off work. And that my friends sums up Wall Street's AND Congress' contempt and bias against the Middle Class folks on Main Street. And before anyone accuses me of inciting a class war let me ask the question.....do you shower before or after work and how often do you have to clean under your nails in a day?

And you might ask-how is the pronounstication that we are officially in a recession connected to when you shower? My friends, how you answer this question and whether or not Congress decides to help those of us that shower after work will decide whether or nor we go into a full blown Depression or not.

Armed with a few facts and the courage of my convictions-I will make a prediction about the future of our economy. First-We will not go totally into the abysses of a full blown Depression if Congress gets around to helping those of us that shower after work. While the GOP was able to put some serious holes into the safety net FDR created-they didn't totally destroy it. Yes, folks will fall through the holes and God willing, it will be those that helped create those holes. But I think the net will hold for most provided Congress finally decides to help those that need it the most and can do the most to restart the economy......the workers. It will be a tough go but the net will hold and will need serious repair. Because of these safety nets and the way they cook the books now days, the stats for a 'depression' will be skewed a bit. But again, how bad will it be and how long it will last depends on what is done next. If Congress doesn't act, I say at least 5-7 more years of this, under 5 if they get it together.

Well, there you have it-my predictions for the upcoming year. I am not happy about it but would be even less happy if we had a different leader.

Of course-those that make predictions frequently end up eating glass. So if I am wrong-I will cheerfully eat my ground glass with a pint of half and half.:spray:

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[truedelphi]

46. Congress has not helped those of us who shower after work since the 1930's

They have given a full blown coronation to Paulson, and that pretty much sums up the dire direction we are all being herded.

[Tansy_Gold]

66. Many who shower before work are falling down the hole too

It's an apt phrasing, but it's not entirely accurate to say that only those who labor physically, who work in the plants and mills or on the farms, the mechanics and or whatever are the ones who've been left behind.

Retail clerks, office workers, teachers, many health care providers (CNAs) and others (many of whom might very well shower after work as well as before) have watched their wages stagnate in comparison to upper management.

Consider the grocery clerks hired after the big strike a few years ago. Voting union members kept their $14-$20+/hour wages but voted to "allow" incoming members to receive only $7/hour. I was one of those new hires, and I was all too often accused of dragging wages down by those who voted to keep me at $7/hour. And yes, I know they did it because they were being threatened by Wal-Mart's non-union supermarkets, but that's no excuse for them to blame the victims.

Consider the battalions of temporary office workers -- secretaries, receptionists, data entry clerks, HR assistants, customer service reps -- who are still making $8-$12/hour in 2008, which is exactly what they were making back in 1995. I'm one of them.

I'm not denigrating those who do physical labor. My late husband was an auto mechanic and a printer, so I know about dirty fingernails and grease stains and ink stains and skinned knuckles and calluses. At least he was paid reasonably well for his work. I never was. Yet on my $9/hour I was expected to dress "nicely" and go out to lunch "with the rest of the girls" every day. Brown bagging was frowned upon -- but I did it anyway.

Following up on a sub-thread from yesterday regarding college degrees and student loans -- one of the reasons I went back to college at age 50 was because I was tired of being passed over for "promotions" or excluded even for consideration for many jobs because of the lack of a degree, any degree. And in too many instances, I was denied the promotion AND the corresponding increase in pay (and benefits) only to end up doing the work anyway because I knew how but the person hired to do it, the person with the degree, was incompetent. While a degree wouldn't prevent me from being the victim of a boss who foisted his girlfriend's (or boyfriend's) work on me, at least I wouldn't be locked out of the promotion ladder. I don't regret getting those degrees, as thoroughly useless as their subject matter is in terms of the workplace. I had great fun and learned a lot and will struggle to pay off the loans one way or another.

But I think it's unfair to say that those of us who work with clean hands aren't getting the shaft out of this economy. Many of us are among the first to be outsourced and/or laid off and/or made to perform double duty. We're expendable. The payroll clerk can double as the receptionist; the receiving clerk can keep the inventory records. The cashier can stock shelves and the teacher can clean her own classroom.

Remember, too, that many of these are the jobs that were "given" to women when we entered the work force in greater numbers in the 50s and 60s, and almost always at lower pay. Our pay has never equaled men's and yet we have increasingly been the heads of households, responsible for our own support and that of our children or our parents.

Don't pit the clean hands people against the scabbed knuckle people. We're really all in this together.


Tansy Gold, clean hands, dirty mind :evilgrin:

[AnneD]

68. Getting down to the nitty gritty.....

Nursing is suppose to be a 'white? collar' job but I find my self showering before AND especially after a shift. We don't call them Code Browns for nothing.

And I spent HOW much money to get and keep this license:spray:

AnneD, clean hands, filthy shoes, dirtier mind :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

2. Market WrapUp

The Value of Money
BY JAIME E. CARRASCO CFP

The global financial storm that we have entered is causing much worry and concern throughout the world. I too have stayed awake many a night reviewing this tempest so that I can decide on our best course of action. So far, I have only been surprised by the speed by which it has unraveled — never in my wildest assumptions did I think the system was this weak. Through recent careful study of the situation, I believe I can see how this financial mess may unravel and what course of action the rational investor might take.

Inflation or deflation? — that is the question as to how the mess will unravel. It is extremely important that we understand this debate as its outcome will have serious implications for your financial wellbeing. My observations and conclusions are that the outcome of this mess will lead to inflation. I believe "the deflationists" are wrong. The main arguments for the deflationists are based upon two premises: first, the fact that deflation was the outcome of the Great Depression of the 1930s and of Japan in the 1990s; second the argument that the levels of debt are so big that the Central Banks could never print as much to offset the deflationary effect of unwinding the debt. A historical study of these arguments reveals that deflation is a rarity. Furthermore, we have the experience of all other financial storms over the past century (apart from The Great Depression and Japan in the 90s) creating inflation. Inflation has been the historical norm. It is important to understand why so that one can make rational investments decisions.

.....

Having been an institutional bond trader, it is absolutely unbelievable to me that the 30-year US bond is trading at a yield of 3.19%. In light of the current liabilities facing the US government (discussed below) and the fact of the coming Baby Boomer cohort's retirement, I can't help but conclude that the final credit bubble to burst is the US long bond. Yields will greatly increase sooner than later as all these liabilities are assumed by the US tax payers.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[DemReadingDU]

24. Inflation or deflation?

I would say we are already deflating as is evidenced by the decreasing price in houses, companies going bankrupt and massive layoffs. Bernanke and Paulson have created a multitude of programs to try and inflate the economy to keep everything from totally collapsing. According to Mish's graphs, it appears that these programs have already pledged 7.7 TRILLION of our tax money to keep afloat.

11/25/08 Bailout Pledges Hit $7.7 Trillion
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/bailout-pledges-hit-77-trillion.html

[Demeter]

25. I'm Inclined to Deflation, Myself

Based on the massive inflation of the past 30 years and the collapse of the engines of inflation. We have nowhere to go but down, and until some kind of solid surface is reached, nobody will get enough purchase to inflate anything.

The best part is the deflation of the GOP, though. The inflation of the GOP was calculated, cynical, and underlies all the rest of it.

[PassingFair]

38. The fact that we are discussing the occurence of opposites...

at this stage of the game shows how *ucked up the
system really is.

My gut feeling is with the inflation argument, but
it really could go either way.

The pick-up sticks are in the air, and what we wil have
to deal with is totally out of our control.

I feel SO secure...

[AnneD]

41. I lean toward deflation...

all the commodity markets are tanking-manufacturers and stores are taking a hit and additional lay offs of expensive workers are only a matter of time.

[GliderGuider]

43. Same here.

I side with Stoneleigh over at The Automatic Earth. The speed of the collapse (which surprised Carrasco) is one major factor that points towards deflation, at least in the short to medium term. The debt supply is electronic, which means large chunks of it can evaporate instantaeously. Printing presses don't run that fast, so it seems to me the only way to balance events like that would be with the creation of large amounts of new debt to offset the loss of the write-offs. Would there be takers for another $5 trillion or more of US government debt over the next year? I suspect not.

I'm not an banker, and economist or a trader, but that's how I see it.

[ozymandius]

4. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 11/29
Briefing.com 540K
Consensus 540K
Prior 529K

10:00 Factory Orders Oct
Briefing.com -4.0%
Consensus -4.5%
Prior -2.5%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

29. Initial claims @ 509,000 - last wk rev'd up 1k to 530,000

06. U.S. continuing jobless claims up 89,000 to 4.09 mln
8:30 AM ET, Dec 04, 2008

07. U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims highest since Dec. '82
8:30 AM ET, Dec 04, 2008

08. U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims up 6,250 to 524,500
8:30 AM ET, Dec 04, 2008

09. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims up 21,000 to 509,000
8:30 AM ET, Dec 04, 2008

(edited because my title line was incorrect)

[ozymandius]

35. Look how it's being spun.

Jobless claims in surprise decline

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of Americans filing new unemployment insurance claims decreased last week, but remained above the key 500,000 level symbolic of a weak economy, the government reported Thursday.,

The Labor Department said initial filings for state jobless benefits decreased by 21,000 to 509,000 for the week ended Nov. 29. That was down from a revised 530,000 claims in the prior week.

Economists were expecting 540,000 initial claims, according to a consensus compiled by Briefing.com.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/04/news/economy/jobless_claims/

---

And in other news: sawdust clumps still considered to be a perfectly honorable bread substitute.

[Roland99]

37. U.S. October factory orders down 5.1%

U.S. October factory orders down 5.1%
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BB0B89460%2D752C%2D4BDF%2D946A%2DFFD1EA7C569D%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- New orders for manufactured goods fell 5.1% in October, the biggest decline since 2000, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, as new orders for transportation equipment dropped. Action Economics analysts had expected overall new orders to fall 5%. New orders for durable goods fell a revised 6.9%, compared with 6.2% estimated last week. October's drop in overall orders is the third consecutive months of declines, following drops of 3.1% in September and 4.3% in August. Nondurable goods orders in October fell 3.4%. Core capital equipment orders fell 5%.

[UpInArms]

39. Ah-OO-Ga! U.S. October factory orders down 5.1%

21. U.S. October factory orders down 5.1%
10:00 AM ET, Dec 04, 2008

22. U.S. Oct. factory orders fall most since 2000
10:00 AM ET, Dec 04, 2008

23. U.S. Oct. factory orders ex-transportation down 4.2%
10:00 AM ET, Dec 04, 2008

[ozymandius]

44. In case anyone wonders about these figures: they're horrible.

Because they go beyond the auto industry. These numbers also indicated heavy industry that produce materiel and equipment for factories that make the stuff we see in stores. Retailers routinely place orders for holiday goods three to four months in advance of the holiday shopping season. So how did we fare the previous two months?: drops by 3.1% in September and 4.3% in August.

I am very concerned.

[ozymandius]

5. Oil falls to 3-year low at $46 on weak economy

SINGAPORE – Oil prices sank to 3-year lows Thursday in Asia as more bleak news from the world's largest economy signaled that crude could tumble below $40 by the end of the year.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery was down 69 cents to $46.10 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late afternoon in Singapore after earlier trading at $45.60 a barrel — the lowest since closing at $45.42 on Feb. 10, 2005. The contract fell 17 cents overnight to settle at $46.79.

....

Investors were dismayed at more poor economic news from the U.S. The Institute for Supply Management said Wednesday its services sector index fell to 37.3 in November from 44.4 in October. The reading was significantly lower than the 42 the market expected.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 3.15 cents to $1.01 a gallon. Heating oil dropped 2.45 cents to $1.56 a gallon while natural gas for January delivery was steady at 6.35 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

6. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 87.389 Change +0.674 (+0.87%)

US Dollar: Why Fed Rate Cut Expectations Have Lost Their Impact

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/watch_what_the_fed_watches/Speculation_For_A_75bp_Fed_1228334043136.html

With liquidity topped off after last week’s extended US holiday, market participants are once again trying to establish the primary, fundamental driver for the dollar going forward. Through the immediate future, interest rates will continue to influence the greenback; but its impact has certainly changed in the span of a year.


The Economy And The Credit Market

With liquidity topped off after last week’s extended US holiday, market participants are once again trying to establish the primary, fundamental driver for the dollar going forward. Through the immediate future, interest rates will continue to influence the greenback; but its impact has certainly changed in the span of a year. From 5.25 percent back in July of 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has responded to a financial crisis and global recession by lowering the benchmark all the way down to 1.00 percent. However, the Fed isn’t the only central bank that has had to use monetary policy to help revive investor confidence and growth. Policy authorities around the world are quickly bringing their benchmarks towards zero. With the market pricing in a 50 percent probability for another 75bps cut on December 16th, the Fed may soon be the lowest yielder. However, if this is seen helping US growth before its international counterparts, a cut may actually help the dollar as carry interest vanishes.



...more...

British Pound Could Rise Even If the Bank of England Slashes Rates

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/British_Pound_Could_Rise_Even_1228327193601.html

The outlook for the British pound looks dim as the Bank of England is widely anticipated to follow up their October 8 and November 6 rate cuts with yet another aggressive reduction on Thursday morning. Currently, the markets are betting on a 100bp cut to 2.00%, which would bring the Bank Rate its lowest level since 1939. However, the BOE's subsequent monetary policy statement will be just as important, as it will provide a gauge as to what the central bank will do next, and may determine the British pound's next move.

The Bank of England is widely anticipated to follow up their October 8 and November 6 rate cuts with yet another aggressive reduction at 7:00 ET on December 4. As of November 26, a Bloomberg News poll shows that the majority of economists surveyed thought that the BOE would reduce the Bank Rate by either 50 or 100 basis points, with the consensus forecast calling for the latter. Likewise, Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are fully pricing in a 100 basis point cut, and it seems increasingly likely that the BOE will slash the Bank Rate to the lowest since 1939, when rates were at 2.00%.

<snipping chart>

The BOE’s upcoming decision will be just one of many efforts put forth in an attempt to prevent the UK economy from falling into a prolonged recession, as Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling downgraded growth forecasts during his pre-budget report on November 24 to 0.75 percent in 2008, between -0.75 and -1.25 percent in 2009, and between 1.5 to 2 percent in 2010. Chancellor Darling also announced a £20 billion fiscal stimulus plan, which calls for a cut to the Value Added Tax (VAT) to 15 percent from 17.5 percent, boosts to state pensions and child benefits, extensions of employment support, and a housing support package, among other things. In order to accommodate for some of these costs, Chancellor Darling said that after April 2011 those earning at least £150,000 a year would face an income tax of 45 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. JPMorgan seizes fund's collateral - WSJ

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSBNG39764620081204

Dec 4 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) seized tens of millions of dollars of collateral from a commercial property debt fund run by Guggenheim Partners LLC, the Wall Street Journal said citing people familiar with the matter.

The move followed the fund's failure to provide additional capital to meet margin calls and JPMorgan started to auction off the seized collateral this week, the paper quoted the people as saying.

Guggenheim Partners' debt funds have some $8 billion in capital, the paper said.

The short-term debt triggered margin calls in recent weeks as the weakening economy wreaked havoc in the commercial real estate debt market, the paper said.

Under the terms of the debt, a drop in the value of the fund's collateral led lenders to demand additional cash, according to the paper.

The woes of Guggenheim, which was founded by the philanthropic New York family best known for the Guggenheim museums, follows the forced liquidation of a $1.5 billion real-estate debt fund with investors including the family of one-time presidential candidate H. Ross Perot, the paper said.

...more...

[ozymandius]

11. commercial property debt fund

Anyone else hear the sound of another shoe hitting the floor? Sounds like a really huge shoe too.

[ozymandius]

8. Credit Suisse cuts 5,300 jobs worldwide

ZURICH, Switzerland – Credit Suisse Group said Thursday it is cutting 5,300 jobs — about 11 percent of its global work force — in a bid to reduce costs and take its business back into the black.

Jobs will be lost in all parts of the world, said spokesman Marc Dosch, including in New York, London and Switzerland.

Switzerland's second biggest bank predicted another loss-making quarter, saying it was 3 billion francs ($2.5 billion) in the red by the end of November because of adverse market conditions and expenses associated with the job cuts.

A fourth-quarter loss would be the third this year, following losses totaling over $3 billion in the first and third quarter.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081204/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_switzerland_credit_suisse

[UpInArms]

9. Record number of Americans using food stamps: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE4B28CB20081203?sp=true

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Food stamps, the main U.S. antihunger program which helps the needy buy food, set a record in September as more than 31.5 million Americans used the program -- up 17 percent from a year ago, according to government data.

The number of people using food stamps in September surpassed the previous peak of 29.85 million seen in November 2005 when victims of hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma received emergency benefits, said Jean Daniel of the USDA's Food and Nutrition Service.

September's tally -- the latest month available -- was also boosted by hurricane and flood aid, Daniel said on Wednesday.

But anti-hunger groups said the economic downturn is the main reason behind the higher figures.

"It's a disturbing trend," said Ellen Vollinger, legal director with the Food Research and Action Center. She said she expects more people will turn to food stamps as unemployment figures rise and the economy remains weak.

One in 10 Americans were participating in the food stamp program as of September, said Dottie Rosenbaum, analyst with Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a think tank.

That's approaching the all-time high of 10.5 percent of the population that used the program in 1994, and is similar to levels seen in the early 1980s, she said.

...more...

[SpiralHawk]

10. Perfect cartoon. Republiconism in a nutshell

Republicon = fail freaks with no sense of honor or responsibility.

[UpInArms]

12. Too Big Not To Fail We need to stop using the bailouts to rebuild gigantic financial institutions.

By Eliot Spitzer

http://www.slate.com/id/2205995/

Last month, as the financial crisis and the government rescue plan dominated headlines, almost everyone overlooked a news item that could have enormous long-term impact: GE Capital announced the acquisition of five mid-size airplanes—with an option to buy 20 more—produced by CACC, a new, Chinese-government-sponsored airline manufacturer.

Why is that so significant? Two reasons: First, just as small steps signaled the Asian entry into our now essentially bankrupt auto sector 50 years ago, so the GE acquisition signals Asia's entry into one of our few remaining dominant manufacturing sectors. Boeing is still the world's leading commercial aviation company. CACC's emergence—and its particular advantage selling to Asian markets—means that Boeing now faces the rigors of an entirely new competitive playing field and that our commercial airplane sector is likely to suffer enormously over the coming decades.

But the second implication is even bigger. The CACC story highlights the risk that current bailouts—a remarkable $7.8 trillion in equity, loans, and guarantees so far—may merely perpetuate a fundamentally flawed status quo. So far, at least, we are simply rebuilding the same edifice that just collapsed. None of the investments has even begun to address the underlying structural problems that are causing economic power to shift away from the United States, sector by sector:

Our trade deficit has ballooned from about $100 billion to more than $700 billion annually in the past decade, and our federal deficit now approaches $1 trillion. These twin deficits leave us at the mercy of foreign-capital inflows that may diminish as Asian nations, in particular, invest increasingly at home.
Our household savings rate has been close to zero—and even negative in some years—not permitting the long-term capital accumulation required for the investments we need; China's savings rate, by comparison, is an astonishing 30 percent of household income.

U.S. middle class income has stagnated over the past decade, while the middle class in China—granted, starting from a lower base—has seen its income growing at about 10 percent annually.

Our intellectual advantage could soon turn into a new "third deficit," as hundreds of thousands of engineers are being created annually in China.

We are realizing that the service sector—all the lawyers, investment bankers, advertising agencies, and accountants—follows its clients and wealth creation. This, not over-regulation, is the reason investment-banking activity has begun to migrate overseas.

...lots more worth reading...

[UpInArms]

13. Ex-NY Gov Spitzer to write column for Slate.com

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE4B28CI20081203

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer, who resigned earlier this year over his involvement in a prostitution ring, will write a column for online magazine Slate.com about the economy and financial regulation.

The column, which will be called "The Best Policy," will appear every other week, Slate Group Editor Jacob Weisberg told Reuters in an interview.

The first column, which is appearing Wednesday evening, will deal with the financial crisis and Spitzer's opinion that the United States should not recreate financial institutions that are considered "too big to fail," Weisberg said.

Spitzer, who stepped down as governor in March during a scandal over his connection to a $1,000-an-hour prostitute, previously served as New York attorney general and became known for cracking down on financial crimes and prostitution. His nickname among many became "The Sheriff of Wall Street."

"He was the de facto national regulator of the financial industry," Weisberg said. "I think he just has a keen understanding and a shrewd perspective on those issues."

...more...

[mdmc]

42. thanks for those Spitz link

I am interested in where he is going...
In the mid 70's Ralph Nader was one of the most respected and trusted people in the country. Now he is far less so.

Spitz is currently not so trusted and respected. Perhaps he can be our next Ralph Nader - consumer advocate that is one of the most trusted / respected people in the county.

[ozymandius]

14. GM, Chrysler considering bankruptcy to get bailout: report

(Reuters) – General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC are considering accepting a pre-arranged bankruptcy as the last-resort price of getting a multi-billion dollar government bailout, Bloomberg reported, citing a person familiar with internal discussions.

In response to automakers' bailout plea, staff for three members of Congress have asked restructuring experts if a pre-arranged bankruptcy -- negotiated with workers, creditors and lenders -- could be used to reorganize the sector without liquidation, Bloomberg said.

....

All three automakers have urged Congress to authorize $34 billion in loans and credit lines, saying they will restructure, and cut models, jobs and executive pay to remain viable.

....

Senate Majority leader Harry Reid wants to try to find a way to avert threatened bankruptcies in the U.S. auto industry with Detroit Three chief executives readying for a make-or-break hearing on Thursday on the bailout request.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081204/bs_nm/us_autos_bailout_options

[Demeter]

76. Congress, Led By the GOP Minority Blowhards and Slavishly Followed by Pelosi and Reid, Will Do

NOTHING! ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! THEY WILL SIT THERE, FLUSH AMERICA DOWN THE TOILET, AND PAT THEMSELVES ON THE BACK BECAUSE THEY KILLED OFF "DIRTY" INDUSTRY AND SAVED THE PARASITICAL "FINANCIERS". THAT'S ONE WAY TO MEET THE KYOTO AGREEMENTS, I SUPPOSE.

[tclambert]

83. Dammit, dammit, dammit! Car companies MAKE something. Financial companies

just move money around and swipe a slice as the pie plate passes. We need people and companies that make things, real things, that actually manufacture real wealth.

[Tansy_Gold]

92. Whatsamatta? You some kinda marxist or sumpin'?

Oh, goddess, it was so painful to listen to Sherrod Brown on Rachel Maddow a few minutes ago (and Michael Moore on Olbermann last night), because he was so right about we need real jobs for real people, and yet we can't continue the way we have. The U.S automakers haven't kept up with their competition in terms of quality of product and meeting the needs of a changing planet. How do we keep the jobs -- and expand the whole manufacturing base -- while at the same time altering the corporations so they're more responsive to progressive needs?

And we need, as painful as it will be, the collapsing of the enormous bubble that is the whole capitalist/corporatist/consumerist economy that thrives on wealth disparity. The current catastrophe is the NATURAL result of the policies that promote bottom line above all else (pun intended) and stockholder protection from risk even while increasing that risk a thousand fold.

A day or so ago someone here on SMW was asking about good economics texts/references. I'd recommend William Appleman Williams' "The great evasion: An essay on the contemporary relevance of Karl Marx and on the wisdom of admitting the heretic into the dialogue about America's future." How many of our "economics" texts even consider that there might be something other than corporate capitalism?

Tansy Gold, considering

[UpInArms]

15. Vermont called healthiest state, Louisiana last

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B276H20081203

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Louisiana has displaced Mississippi as the unhealthiest U.S. state and other Southern states were close rivals due to high obesity and smoking rates in new rankings that deemed Vermont the healthiest.

The overall health of Americans remained static for a fourth year, according to an annual report issued on Wednesday assessing a series of measures also including binge drinking, health insurance coverage, air pollution, infectious disease rates, crime levels and immunization coverage.

<snip>

Vermont, with the second smallest population of any state, had the third-highest public health spending and an obesity rate of 22 percent, four points below the national average.

It also had low child poverty and violent crime, a large number of doctors per capita and good high school graduation rates.

<snip>

President-elect Barack Obama and leading lawmakers want to engineer a major reform of U.S. health care, which leaves 45.7 million people without coverage while costing more than any other national health system.

The United States trails many other industrialized nations in infant mortality, life expectancy, mortality for treatable conditions and overall health care system performance.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

17. Fortress suspends redemptions from biggest hedge fund

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Fortress-suspends-redemptions-biggest-hedge/story.aspx?guid=%7B4AD083D9%2D2E63%2D42C5%2DA63B%2DB2478AC33C67%7D

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Fortress Investment Group LLC said late Wednesday it is suspending redemptions in its largest hedge fund. In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Fortress (FIG: 1.87, -0.63, -25.2%) said the suspensions apply to amounts requested with respect to the firm's Nov. 30 and Dec. 31 redemption dates. "The Boards of Directors and General Partner of the applicable Feeder Funds have evaluated the most appropriate course of action to take in response to the Requested Redemptions in light of applicable requirements and current market conditions, and have acted unanimously to temporarily suspend pending redemptions from the Fund," Fortress said. Fortress shares, which fell over 25% during regular trading, fell a further 13% in after hours trading, to $1.63.

[UpInArms]

18. Citigroup executives ready to give up bonuses: report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/citigroup-executives-ready-give-up/story.aspx?guid=%7BB952A54F%2D2C77%2D4E46%2D907E%2D8783E335ADF5%7D&dist=morenews

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup's (C: 7.82, +0.60, +8.3%) top executives and Robert Rubin, a director and senior adviser, are ready to give up their bonuses for 2008 after the bank's massive losses and a government bailout, the Financial Times reported Thursday. Citing a person close to Rubin, the newspaper said he had told the board that the funds allocated for his bonus would be better spend on other employees. People close to the situation said the government's rescue of the firm makes it almost impossible for the board to award cash bonuses to other executives, the report added.

[ozymandius]

19. ECB May Deliver Most Aggressive Interest-Rate Cut Yet (Update2)

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank may be forced to deliver the most aggressive interest-rate cut in its 10-year history as the economic slump deepens.

Investors are now betting that ECB policy makers, meeting in Brussels today, will lower the benchmark lending rate by 100 basis points to 2.25 percent, the biggest single reduction ever, Eonia forward contracts show. Economists were divided in a Bloomberg survey conducted last week, with 35 of 56 predicting a 50-point reduction and 21 forecasting a move of 75 points or more.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aYVMngnDih0E&refer=economy

---

I wonder what their 'Plan B' looks like should this do nothing to bolster confidence and liquidity.

[ozymandius]

20. Dubai Speculators Quit as Lending Drought Bursts Desert Bubble

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The classified ads in Dubai read like an obituary for a real-estate market that until a few months ago seemed immune from the global credit crisis.

.....

The property bubble in the desert emirate, home to the world’s tallest building, most expensive hotel suite and largest manmade islands, is bursting as scarce credit and slumping oil prices have international investors scurrying to dump assets. That may shatter Dubai’s goal of creating a sustainable economy by building the Persian Gulf hub for finance and tourism, forcing it to depend on oil-rich neighbor Abu Dhabi for financing.

....

‘Nasty Downturn’

Real-estate prices may drop 20 percent or more, analysts at EFG-Hermes Holding SAE, the biggest publicly traded investment bank in Egypt, said in a report this week.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2jrSPqYhVzY&refer=exclusive

[ozymandius]

21. Paulson Still Doesn’t Understand Housing’s Problems (wants to re-inflate the bubble)

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson once again reveals his appalling misunderstanding of the Housing market and its problems today when he floated his latest idea to “Stem Home-Price Declines.”

There are two problems with Housing:

1. Ultra low rates and an abdication of lending standards put 3 - 4 million people in homes they could not afford. The real costs of home ownership have been forcing many of these people to move back into more affordable quarters (i.e., rentals).

2. By just about every measure, home prices remain significantly elevated over historic metrics.And given the chain of sales that accompanies any existing home sale — the starter home/move up home/bigger house/even nice home/downsize retiree — anything that keeps home prices out of reach of the starter and move up buyers damages the entire chain fo purchasers.

Excerpt:

“The Treasury Department is considering a plan to revitalize the U.S. housing market by reducing mortgage rates for new loans, according to people familiar with the matter.

The plan, which is in the development stages, would use mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bring loan rates down as low as 4.5%, a full percentage point lower than the prevailing rates for 30-year fixed mortgages.

Government officials are under pressure to stem foreclosures, which underpin much of the current financial crisis. Treasury has struggled for months to come up with a plan that would ease the market without appearing to bail out homeowners and lenders.

Under the plan, Treasury would buy securities underpinning loans guaranteed by the two mortgage giants, which are temporarily under the control of the government, as well as those guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration. Fannie and Freddie guarantee a large proportion of all new home loans made in the U.S.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/paulson-still-doesnt-understand-housings-problems/

---

Again I ask: How did this fool become the head of Goldman Sachs?

[Demeter]

26. Why Is This Fool Still in the Treasury?

It's a large pyramid of fools, which needs a wrecking ball at their base to take them all down.

Thank you, Sister Sarah!

[DemReadingDU]

31. Who is Sister Sarah?

I think I have missed something?
:shrug:

[Demeter]

75. Sister Sarah Is a Character from "Guys and Dolls"

She runs a missionary for Manhattan lowlifes in Damon Runyon's fiction, and ends up marrying one.

It is my pet name for Sarah Palin.

[DemReadingDU]

28. It's all about saving his wealth and wealth of his cronies

Paulson doesn't have to understand the housing market. It's not about our housing. It's all about them, the uber uber rich. He was head of Goldmans because he has friends in high places, and can preserve their wealth.

[ozymandius]

34. Upton Sinclair said it best.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

[Dr.Phool]

52. Old Chinese Proverb.

It's not who you know, it's who you .....

[AnneD]

70. This ignorance of Paulsen and Bernanke is based.....

on the myopic view of the uber rich on WS. They could drop the interest to 0% and houses would still not move, because folks don't have good paying jobs to afford them. In a buyers market...it is what the buyer can afford to pay. AND THAT IS THE REAL BOTTOM LINE. So if you keep suppressing wages (in the name of fighting inflation)don't expect to find someone to slam down a huge chunk of change for your house.

[tclambert]

85. Yes, it's all about jobs.

And they keep forgetting that workers are also customers. You want customers to have more income, not less.

[tclambert]

84. Dammit, dammit, dammit! Still 47 days to go!

Can't we make the dumbasses go away? Just go, George, go!

[BelgianMadCow]

22. Europe opens higher on expectations of major rate cuts

From the belgian financial paper De Tijd
http://www.tijd.be/nieuws/markten/Beurzen_hoger_door_speculatie_op_forse_renteknip.8114043-442.art

De Europese beurzen koersen donderdag, na een lagere opening, flink hoger. De markt speculeert erop dat zowel de Bank of England (BoE) als de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) later op de dag een forse renteverlaging zullen doorvoeren.

My translation:

The European stock markets are going higher on thursday, after a lower opening. The market is speculating both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will implement rate cuts later today.

-----

Swedisch Central Bank has set the tone, cutting 175 basis points...

regards
bmc

[Festivito]

23. Debt: 12/02/2008 10,685,166,611,275.20 (UP 4,030,690,812.20) (76% of report-avg)

(Mostly FICA moved last Tuesday. Enjoyed hearing responses in yesterday's thread. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,435,078,596,060.30 + 4,250,088,015,214.90
UP 199,375,927.74 + UP 3,831,314,884.39
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,289,149,919.38.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,702,404,943.57.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,471,004,634.59.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 42 reports in 63 days of FY2009 averaging 15.72B$ per report, 10.48B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 49 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.8 and 11.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
12/02/2008 10,685,166,611,275.20 GWB (UP 4,956,970,815,093.63 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 660,441,714,362.80 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/10/2008 -000,178,876,517.33 --- Mon
11/12/2008 +000,116,562,137.90 ------------********
11/13/2008 -037,830,308,231.82 -
11/14/2008 +039,714,906,312.49 ------------**********
11/17/2008 -001,168,758,314.18 -- Mon
11/18/2008 +035,027,406,490.17 ------------**********
11/19/2008 -000,433,628,717.22 ---
11/20/2008 -000,189,695,810.14 ---
11/21/2008 -000,151,096,322.01 ---
11/24/2008 -000,086,920,504.20 ---- Mon
11/25/2008 +001,468,316,558.23 ------------*********
11/26/2008 +000,650,427,812.76 ------------********
11/28/2008 +000,783,239,406.89 ------------********
12/01/2008 +038,288,359,563.07 ------------********** Mon
12/02/2008 +000,199,375,927.74 ------------********

76,209,309,792.35 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,020,534,808,016.13 in last 75 days.
That's 1,021B$ in 75 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 100% of that highest year ever only in 75 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 75 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3628478&mesg_id=3628566

[DemReadingDU]

32. I liked tclambert's response yesterday

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3628478#3629578

and I'm repeating my response
forego $10 in ice cream to help feed hungry kids. Sure!

but $10,000 for the banksters to continue corrupted financing...Hell no!

but $10,000 to promote research and innovation into solar energy and wind power to generate electricity for our homes, and reduce dependence on oil/gasoline in our cars? At this point in my life, yes I would.

and some of that money should be used to bring back our manufacturing from China/elsewhere, so that we can become a self-sustaining nation again. We need to produce our own clothes, shoes, the basics that everyone needs.

[Festivito]

45. Remember, those figures are for a family of three.

And your decision gives it up for your family also.

[DemReadingDU]

65. Right. At this point in my life,

If we all can be guaranteed that our country will again be self sustaining, energy efficient without demand on oil, it would be worth it.
From what I read elsewhere, most of us won't have other alternatives, and are going to find it very difficult to survive.

[Festivito]

71. It's going to be ugly.

It's that bad-boy-banker's money out there, and its real, and it's in people's retirement accounts, in other countries, and it's waiting to kill anything Obama wants to do just by showing up in the markets.

[DemReadingDU]

79. very ugly

How could the power and greed of a few banksters let our country collapse, and the whole world? I really don't see how any amount of money is going to save us. I am trying to do a few things now for my family to help us during the next few years, but after that?

:(


edit for clairty

[tclambert]

86. Here's my best guess on how it happened.

The financiers wanted to make a lot of money without producing any real wealth. They don't build any houses, manufacture any cars, make any shoes, sew any blankets, or grow any corn. Yet they get fantastically rich by moving numbers around in computers. And they make more money when they take bigger risks, as long as they keep rolling sevens. And greed keeps them playing until the risk catches up with them and they roll snake eyes. Unless someone sets a limit on the wagers at the table, or makes them walk away, they fall prey to the same failure many gamblers face--the inability to quit while they're ahead.

Wait, that last part isn't actually true. The top execs who placed the bets and rolled the dice made sure they got theirs. The analogy breaks down because they are playing WITH OUR MONEY!

[tclambert]

87. Here's my best guess on how to save us.

You are right, we can't print enough money to save us. It's gotta be jobs. Throw a few million more jobs into this situation, and everything looks brighter. History books say the giant jobs program known as World War II is what really restored our economy after the Great Depression beat it down. And almost any government jobs program would be more economically beneficial than a world war.

Build roads, bridges, canals, levees in New Orleans, giant desalinization plants to make water for California, solar cell farms, windmill farms, colonies on Mars, anything that employs a lot of people. Give people an income, people at the bottom of the economic ladder, and everything will improve. The people at the top will find a way to benefit, have no doubt. They are really good at that. And if you can get unemployment low enough, employers will have to compete for workers by paying them more. Imagine real incomes rising for a change.

It is all about jobs.

[DemReadingDU]

90. It is all about jobs.

Yes, jobs to produce something. Not service jobs like restaurants and retail. Jobs to build us basic things - clothes, food, rail travel, solar energy, water power. All these people being laid off, they need to get back to work, and soon.

edit: Hope Obama's stimulus plan includes lots of jobs.

[Tansy_Gold]

93. Yes, but a 2009 version of the WPA or CCC will only go so far

To keep an economy going beyond the public works projects, the general consumer manufacturing sector must be resuscitated. People are going to continue to need shoes and clothes, dishes and lamps, cars and buses and trucks and computers and shovels and hammers and dog leashes and pencils. If you put them to work building bridges but they turn around and spend their wages on Chinese-made crap, you've still just postponed the eventual collapse.

The more "local" the economic loop of producer and consumer is, the less opportunity there is for the capitalist/corporatist to come in and siphon off the profits. The more "local" the economic loop, the less opportunity there is for the consolidation of economic power in the mold of corporate distribution chains like Wal-Mart.

The ONLY way to do that is to destroy the economic power of the corporation. Make its profits -- and the dividends paid from them -- more highly taxed. Make the tax shelter of the corporation less attractive than investment in the local community, even if "local" simply means national.

Understand that the "global" economy is perfectly healthy for the uber wealthy; it is only the masses who are suffering, and we are suffering mightily in comparison. But if we do nothing, we are tacitly supporting the plutocrats.


Tansy Gold, who is not feeling very supportive tonight and probably won't feel any more supportive tomorrow, or the next day, or the one after that.. . . ... .

[Festivito]

69. Debt: 12/03/2008 10,675,932,885,390.20 (DOWN 9,233,725,885.00) (-162% of report-avg)

(Mostly FICA again. All down. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,434,552,796,939.87 + 4,241,380,088,450.35
DOWN 525,799,120.43 + DOWN 8,707,926,764.55
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,702,625,587.86.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,991,837,911.50.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 43 reports in 64 days of FY2009 averaging 15.14B$ per report, 10.18B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 48 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
12/03/2008 10,675,932,885,390.20 GWB (UP 4,947,737,089,208.63 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 651,207,988,477.80 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/12/2008 +000,116,562,137.90 ------------********
11/13/2008 -037,830,308,231.82 -
11/14/2008 +039,714,906,312.49 ------------**********
11/17/2008 -001,168,758,314.18 -- Mon
11/18/2008 +035,027,406,490.17 ------------**********
11/19/2008 -000,433,628,717.22 ---
11/20/2008 -000,189,695,810.14 ---
11/21/2008 -000,151,096,322.01 ---
11/24/2008 -000,086,920,504.20 ---- Mon
11/25/2008 +001,468,316,558.23 ------------*********
11/26/2008 +000,650,427,812.76 ------------********
11/28/2008 +000,783,239,406.89 ------------********
12/01/2008 +038,288,359,563.07 ------------********** Mon
12/02/2008 +000,199,375,927.74 ------------********
12/03/2008 -000,525,799,120.43 ---

75,862,387,189.25 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,011,301,082,131.13 in last 76 days.
That's 1,011B$ in 76 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 99% of that highest year ever only in 76 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 76 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3630175&mesg_id=3630246

[tclambert]

88. At that rate, 365 days would give 4,855B$

Can that be right? My calculator swears at me when I try to do trillions. So the good news is, it has got to get better soon, right?

Right?


Dammit, dammit, dammit! 47 more days.

[muriel_volestrangler]

27. Bank of England cuts interest rate to 2% - equal lowest since 1694

The Bank of England slashed interest rates by a full percentage point on Thursday to shore up Britain's crumbling economy and head off the threat of deflation.

The cut took rates to 2.0 percent, their lowest level since 1951. UK interest rates have never gone below this level since the central bank was created in 1694.

Analysts had widely expected the move following business indicators suggesting the economy could be heading for an even deeper recession than most people had predicted.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4B32Q820081204

[MilesColtrane]

47. Next up, the Middle Ages?

[ozymandius]

49. I know a few people who would like to get medieval on Paulson and Bernanke.

And I would pay to watch.

[AnneD]

73. Got Mace?

Or a trebuchet. I prefer the simple things in life-a simple draw and quarter would be pleasing.

[Demeter]

77. But Far Too Mild, IMO

[UpInArms]

30. AT&T cutting 12,000 jobs, books $600 mln severance costs

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ATT-cutting-12000-jobs-books/story.aspx?guid=%7B22F4AE5F%2DD6DF%2D4D10%2DB850%2DD15CF7E55E42%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- AT&T Inc. (T: 29.08, +1.04, +3.7%) said Thursday it'll take a $600 million charge in its fiscal fourth quarter as part of a plan to cut 12,000 jobs, or 4% of the Dallas-based telecommunication giant's work force. AT&T also plans to cut its 2009 capital expenditures over 2008 levels, with a specific dollar figure to be announced in January. "While AT&T is reducing jobs in some areas, it continues to add jobs in other parts of the business -- such as wireless, video and broadband -- to meet customer demand," the company said. AT&T cited economic pressures, a changing business mix and a more streamlined organizational structucture for the layoffs.

[ozymandius]

33. pre-open numbers

S&P 500 -12.00 856.50 12/4 9:11am

NASDAQ -19.00 1137.00 12/4 9:06am

Dow Jones -104.00 8475.00 12/4 9:09am

[ozymandius]

36. Casino's open.

9:33
Dow 8,508.46 Down 83.23 (0.97%)
Nasdaq 1,473.25 Down 19.13 (1.28%)
S&P 500 860.32 Down 10.42 (1.20%)
10-Yr Bond 2.631% Down 0.045
NYSE Volume 101,561,796.875
Nasdaq Volume 40,554,167.969

[ozymandius]

48. updating numbers and blather

1:48
Dow 8,547.65 Down 44.04 (0.51%)
Nasdaq 1,476.48 Down 15.90 (1.07%)
S&P 500 862.75 Down 7.99 (0.92%)
10-Yr Bond 2.595% Down 0.081
NYSE Volume 3,558,061,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,087,276,750

1:30 pm : The S&P 500 recently fell to its worst point of the session. Its counterparts, however, have thus far resisted fresh session lows.

A wide range of performances is being logged by the major economic sectors.

Energy is down 5.3%. Materials (-1.3%), telecom (-1.6%), utilities (-3.5%), and technology (-2.6%) are each down 1% or more. On the other end of things, financials (+1.0%) and consumer discretionary stocks (+2.2%) are showing strong gains in excess of 1%.

Within the discretionary sector, retailers, as a group, are up a hefty 3.6%. Their advance comes despite lackluster same-store sales results from the likes of Target (TGT 34.36, -0.12), Kohl's (KSS 34.39, +1.02), Macy's (M 7.80, +0.41), and Nordstrom (JWN 12.23, +1.33). Wal-Mart (WMT 54.94, +0.56) posted a solid increase in comparables, however.DJ30 -116.52 NASDAQ -23.27 SP500 -14.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1199/1.04 bln/1449 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1135/644 mln/1918

1:05 pm : The stock market continues to chop along without clear direction.

Distress and uncertainty in financial markets has pushed investors toward the relative safety of government securities. The 10-year Note has been spiking during recent sessions; it is currently up 15 ticks. Demand for the 10-year Note has pushed its yield down to 2.61%. The Note has not traded with a yield at such low levels in more than a decade.DJ30 -79.17 NASDAQ -13.66 SP500 -8.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1282/952 mln/1350 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1267/590 mln/1773

[specimenfred1984]

50. I need a $2000 LCD HD digital TV with blueray DVD Recorder TIVO Premium Package

for my Cadillac Escalade, LOL. I also need a cellphone with a 2.0 megapixel camera w/5x zoom, a 4gb music player, internet access, qwerty keyboard and national access for each family member. In addition, I'll be requiring a 6000 sq. ft McMansion with marble everything, gated community, golf course and pool.

In order to get these things, I plan on giving Congress a bankruptcy plan (oops, flew there in my private jet -- didn't look good) err I mean "loan" to support my failed business, err I mean "difficult economic times", in which I've already fired as many people as I could for my own personal gain, err I mean restructured to become leaner and meaner.

Who cares if I'm lying to Congress, spreading propaganda, destroying millions of lives: I NEED MONEY!!!

[CatholicEdHead]

51. 2.0 Megapixel cameras are pretty cheap if you can still find them

Maybe 12-21 Megapixels. ;)

/Bring on the personal bailout
//not

[Dr.Phool]

53. I couldn't even find a phone without a camera.

I just want to talk and listen when I need to talk or listen. I don't want to take pictures. I don't want to text. I don't want a music player. I don't want a GPS on it. And I don't want to bake bread or microwave popcorn with the fucking thing.

It's a phone dammit!

[tclambert]

89. Skynet needs the eyes to keep track of you.

Is your real name John Connor? No? Do you know where I can find him?

[happyslug]

58. Why stop at 2.0, go for 50 Megapexil, only about $50,000, how else can you take pictures?,

It is a Hasselblad and with it you do NOT need to stop at 12-21 megapexil when you can have 50 megapixils. You need every pixel when you take the picture of the fall of another bank.

http://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/571017-REG/Hasselblad_70380532_H3DII_50_SLR_Digital_Camera.html

[ozone_man]

80. I'm not giving up film

until I have a 20 megapixel camera for $400, or a 50 megapixel for under $1,000. In the year 2012 I think.

Of course you have to use a tripod to get the most out of film, and I usually don't.

[CatholicEdHead]

54. Start of the last hour of the day and down we go

I guess the PPT has the day off.

[PassingFair]

61. Look out below!

Down 314 at 3:30....

[Dr.Phool]

62. 3:38pm. Looks like they ran out of Kool-Aide.

Down over 300pts now.

[Juneboarder]

55. I'm young and curious...

...as to what economic indicators I should be watching that might show an upward trend once we've finally hit a bottom and start recovering. Is that a dumb question?? Also, do you think things will start to recover once Obama gets into office or that it will still take more time?

I try and follow the conversations in the SMW thread and just want to see how I can decipher things myself.

[fedsron2us]

57. When all bulls become bears and economic doom is the universally accepted paridigm

then we will have reached bottom.

Don't expect a recovery until at least the end of 2009.

Watch the Baltic Dry Shipping Index as it is a leading trade indicator. At the moment it is 94% off its highs. If it start to revive then it will be a sign that international trade is beginning to revive.

[Juneboarder]

59. That's better than my gut was telling me!

I've been fearing that this could spiral down and down to the point where we are a 3rd world country again... I mean, healthcare is just about there...

I just hope, hope, hope that Obama sticks with what he says and truly pulls us out of this nasty mess.

[tclambert]

91. To answer your first question: Yes, it is.

As far as the Baltic Dry Index, I thought he was making it up to fool with you. Turns out it is real, and is considered a "leading economic indicator." But everything in the market is so emotional right now, I don't think anybody knows what rules apply. The old paradigms are just worth 20 cents.

It is possible that Obama taking office will by itself create such a positive feeling that confidence in the system will be restored and it will create a feedback loop that improves everything. FDR wasn't just cracking wise when he said, "All we have to fear is fear itself." Emotion has a big effect on the market. We like to pretend it's all rational and makes sense. Over the long term, it usually does. I will predict that in 100 years, the market will be significantly higher.

ON THE OTHER HAND, people may take a more cautious wait and see attitude. Real policy changes will take a while to have an effect. Possibly years. And a lot depends on whether they loan the automakers some spare change. Gross Domestic Product dropped for 43 months straight at the beginning of the Great Depression. We're at 12 months in this recession, and counting.

I will go out on a limb and optimistically predict we'll bottom out before 2 years have elapsed.

And I'll suggest you keep an eye on the employment figures. When we start adding jobs again, that's the sign of a real turnaround.

The best investment advice I ever heard was: "Don't invest money you will need anytime soon. Only invest what you can live without."

[UpInArms]

63. gooberment reports are way too cooked to be

really reliable -

when you feel your wallet and it isn't thin, that's the best sign.

:hi:

[Juneboarder]

64. Yes, very true about the govt. reports,

but my only problem is that my wallet is always thin!! Wife keeps a close eye on my cashola...

Do you know if the price of oil and metals go up or down based on the economy, or are those based on different indicators?

[AnneD]

74. Depression Era Joke.......

the soles of his shoes are so thin-he can tell if the dime is heads or tails with out looking.

[natrat]

72. after 29 it took like 30 years to get back so uh.....l

[Demeter]

78. When People Start Getting Hired at a Living Wage

Then the world will right itself.

I think that Obama will have 4 years of heavy lifting before things can even start to turn around.

[ozone_man]

81. Buy and hold is dead.

For now anyways.

I'm not sure the stock market as we know it will survive the present "downturn". When 80% to 90% of the equity is gone, will it still exist? It survived the 1929-1932 crash, when it dropped 90%, so maybe it will still exist in 2010-2012, or whenever it bottoms. In 1932 the Dow was worth 10% of it's peak in 1929, which if repeated, would put the Dow at 1,400 or so.

I think it's safe to say that we have a long way down still, wherever the ultimate low may be. And probably no one will know when the bottom is in until it's significantly up from the bottom. Everything else will be a false bottom or local minimum and there will be lots of them.

The only thing I'm really sure of is that the top is in. ;)

[UpInArms]

56. Chrysler CEO says ready to accept GM merger if that is a condition of government funding

Chrysler CEO says ready to accept GM merger if that is a condition of government funding 2:59pm EST

[antigop]

60. Afternoon, Marketeers -- I found some very interesting info on securities lending

http://www.pionline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081013/PRINTSUB/310139968/1031/PIIssueAlert01

A growing minority of institutional investors has been axing their securities lending programs, concluding that the risks have become too great for the incremental income they've been earning.

Investors who've stopped lending out their holdings over the past year include the $45.7 billion Massachusetts Pension Reserves Investment Management Board, Boston; the $1.3 billion City of Hartford (Conn.) Municipal Employees' Retirement Fund; and the $1 billion University of Colorado Foundation, Boulder.

The risks first surfaced this year in the investment vehicles where managers of securities lending programs — including big custodial banks such as Northern Trust Corp., Chicago, and Bank of New York Mellon Corp., New York — park the cash collateral they receive from borrowers. That collateral is typically 102% of the value of domestic shares and 105% of the value of non-U.S. shares.

Institutional investors thought the collateral was invested in safe, plain-vanilla securities. Somewhere after 2000, however, the range of permissible investments was expanded to include things such as asset-backed securities and home equity loans, which have been eviscerated by the credit crisis, said Cynthia Steer, chief research strategist with investment consultant RogersCasey, Darien, Conn.

One corporate pension fund executive, who declined to be named, said he's been surprised to learn just how much long-dated paper — with maturities of five years to 25 years — was in his program's cash-collateral vehicle, which is designed to offer daily liquidity.

WHAT THE HELL ARE THEY DOING WITH OUR RETIREMENT MONEY????

[DemReadingDU]

67. I think they are stealing our retirement money

My IRA is in a mutual fund consisting only of Short Term Government Treasury Bills, the safest of all securities. What worries me, is that someone could be using that money in those Treasury mutual funds to purchase toxic investments for others, in effect, making my IRA worthless.

We only own a portion of a mutual fund, the mutual fund is not exactly in a person's own name. So I've been debating whether to cash out the IRA, take the tax hit, and get control of my own money.

It wouldn't surprise me if this same securities lending has gone on in my spouse's pension, in effect, making it worthless too.

I don't have any way to prove any of this, though, until a future fateful day when we get a letter.

I really appreciate you finding articles that keep us aware of these shenanigans.

[ozymandius]

82. Here's the cap.

Dow 8,376.24 Down 215.45 (2.51%)
Nasdaq 1,445.56 Down 46.82 (3.14%)
S&P 500 845.22 Down 25.52 (2.93%)
10-Yr Bond 2.57% Down 0.106
NYSE Volume 6,706,718,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,093,321,625

4:30 pm : A sell-off in the final hour of trading sent stocks tumbling Thursday. Late, sharp moves have become the norm during recent sessions, feeding volatility.

This was the fourth session this week that the stock market swung by more than 2.5% in either direction.

Such wide and unpredictable swings have had investors pursuing the safety of government securities. That has pushed the yield on the 3-month Bill to just 0.01%. The yield on the 10-year Note fell as low as 2.54% during the session, while the yield on the 30-Year Bond fell to 3.07%. Treasuries haven't seen such low yields in decades.

Stocks were shunned almost entirely across the board.

Helped by retailers (+1.5%), only the consumer discretionary sector finished in higher ground (+0.3%). Retailers showed strength despite flagging November same-store sales results. Target (TGT 34.04, -0.44) reported a 10% drop in comparables, Macy's (M 7.83, +0.44) saw a 13% slump in same-store sales, and Kohl's (KSS 34.32, +0.95) experienced a near 18% drop in comparables. On the other hand, Wal-Mart (WMT 55.11, +0.73) posted an enviable 3% increase in comparables.

Energy suffered the steepest decline among the major economic sectors. It dropped 6.2% as oil also fell as much as 7.3% to trade as low as $43.36 per barrel. It has been nearly four years since oil futures traded so low. The commodity is now 70% off its all-time high.

Oil's retreat has been driven by reduced demand, reflecting slower economic growth. Slower growth also has many widely held companies issuing disappointing outlooks.

More specifically, Dow component Merck (MRK 25.00, -1.46) issued downside guidance for 2009, overshadowing an in-line estimate for the current fiscal year.

Likewise, fellow Dow component DuPont (DD 23.69, +0.08) forecast a fourth quarter loss and issued downside guidance for fiscal 2009. The company also plans to cut around 2,500 jobs and trim capital spending in 2009. AT&T (T 28.17, -0.91), another Dow component, announced plans to cut 12,000 employees, and will also trim capital expenditures.

The planned job cuts reflect the weak labor market. Initial claims for the week ended Nov. 29 declined 21,000 to 509,000. Though that was better than the consensus estimate of 540,000 claims, continuing claims jumped 89,000 to 4.09 million. The four-week moving average for initial claims jumped slightly to 524,500, while the four-week moving average for continuing claims increased to 4.00 million from 3.94 million.

As a side note, the Department of Labor will issue official November unemployment data ahead of tomorrow's opening bell.

Automakers are back in front of Congress to continue making their case for government financing. Ford (F 2.66, -0.19), General Motors (GM 4.11, -0.79), and Chrysler are all testifying, providing plans for the use of the proposed funds, and also attempting to convey the implications of a failed government-led bailout.

With global economic conditions weakening, the Bank of England cut its target lending rate by 100 basis points to 2.00%. The European Central Bank cut its interest rate target by 75 basis points to 2.50%. The cuts come as central banks abroad continue working to stimulate economic growth. The dramatic size of the cuts, however, comes as a reminder that foreign central banks have been behind the curve.DJ30 -215.45 NASDAQ -46.82 NQ100 -3.3% R2K -3.1% SP400 -3.5% SP500 -25.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 770/2.07 bln/2003 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 814/1.47 bln/2302