STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 22

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 22, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 29
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2609 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2906
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 19, 2008

Dow... 8,579.11 -25.88 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq... 1,564.32 +11.95 (+0.77%)
S&P 500... 887.88 +2.60 (+0.29%)
Gold future... 837.40 -23.20 (-2.77%)
30-Year Bond 2.56% +0.02 (+0.63%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.13% +0.06 (+2.75%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[Mnemosyne]

1. Great toon, ozy! Only 29 days!

:woohoo:

Morning! :hi:

[ozymandius]

3. Good morning!

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Hard to believe isn't it? Our long national nightmare will finally end.

[DemReadingDU]

33. Perhaps

While Bush will be gone, the terrifying economic nightmare is just beginning.

I think Bush and his administration have left Obama nothing but turds at the front door and emptied the Treasury.

Obama and his team are starting out with lots of hope and ideas and the faith of the American people that his leadership will get us through the difficult times ahead.

[ozymandius]

35. You have a strong point.

At least Bush and his ilk will not be around to crap on anything anymore. What Obama can/will do with this mess... :shrug:

[DemReadingDU]

38. Bush won't be around, but his administration left ticking timebombs

those toxic derivatives are everywhere getting ready to explode

unemployment is getting ready to skyrocket

credit is drying up

Hopefully, Obama and his team can lead us thru this mess with their programs and stimulus packages.

[Dr.Phool]

46. Not to mention, cronies "burrowing in" at Justice and other departments.

The EPA, FDA, and others are moving them into career assignments to continue the carnage.

[Karenina]

62. The program "extensions" most assuredly remain in place.

Their functions continue.

[radfringe]

50. i don't call him bush or dubya or even smirk-boy anymore

to me he's a MOTHER DUCKER

[DemReadingDU]

51. lol!

:rofl:

[eowyn_of_rohan]

59. yeah, I am so sick of typing any form of "it's" name or pseudonym...

I think i'll just type "IT" from here forward.

[ozymandius]

2. Market WrapUp

The View From the Executive Sweet?
BY BRIAN PRETTI

To suggest the markets have been quite the volatile beasts these days is quite the understatement. Have equities already fully discounted the economic negativity that has both transpired so far and is yet still to come? As we move into 2009, this is indeed one of the key questions. Yes, we all know that equities bottom prior to recession conclusions. And if indeed the US remains in recession as of next April, ours will be the longest continuous recession since the depression. Hence, we have a lot of folks quite ready to jump the proverbial gun and get a good head start on the next bull market, which is sure to ultimately arrive. But, ahhh…the important question is when? And that will determine a true bear market bottom as opposed to a bear market rally bottom. Quite the differentiation, no?

Time for a very quick check in on the current sentiment from the executive suite, if you will. Just what have the CEO’s and CFO’s of this wonderful world been telling us lately. THE reason I’m bringing this up, as you’ll see in just a minute, is that in very recent surveys, CEO and CFO optimism has taken one very big step backward. Historically, it has paid to listen to these folks as their sense of economic, and really market, timing has been exceptional. Time to listen.

....

But maybe THE most important piece of data from the recent survey is a response series regarding earnings expectations. Unfortunately the history of this question to the CFO’s is limited, but again it’s the level and direction of current period response that is quite the important message and marker of change. We’re looking at CFO responses to the question of earnings growth expectations over the forward twelve-month period. Be aware that this data covers only public company CFO responses and the CFO’s are answering this question specific to circumstances at their own firms, not corporate earnings growth in aggregate.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

4. no goobermental reports today (nt)

[ozymandius]

5. Oil rises slightly on US auto bailout, rate cut

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose slightly Monday in Asia as investors looked for signs that U.S. interest rate cuts and a government bailout of two key automakers could help cushion what may be the worst recession in decades.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery gained 50 cents to $42.86 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract fell Friday 69 cents to settle at $42.36.

....

The January contract, which expired Friday, fell $2.35 overnight to settle at $33.87, the lowest level since early 2004. With U.S. stockpiles rising at the key storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma, the price dropped as brokers and traders attempted to unload supply for whatever price they could get.

....

One potential boost to demand is the falling price itself. The average price of U.S. regular gasoline Friday was $1.66 a gallon, oil industry analyst Trilby Lundberg said. The last time gas prices dipped so low was in February 2004, while the all-time high was on July 11, 2008, when the price peaked at $4.11 a gallon.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 1.51 cents to 99 cents a gallon. Heating oil gained 2.25 to $1.41 a gallon while natural gas for January delivery fell 2.4 cents to $5.31 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

7. I feel embarrassed about missing this chunk of news.

The Enron Loophole is Closed!

This was trumpeted in a diary at DailyKos.

I know this might be a rare event, but lets congratulate one of our Democratic Senators who has really achieved greatness. Every time you fill up at the gas station, you should thank Senator Levin. We all heard endlessly about the Enron loophole. Well did you know Senator Levin closed it? I didn't until yesterday when I was digging around in the the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, also known as the "Enron Loophole." Senator Levin worked tirelessly to close it, and succeeded when the bill overrode President Bush's veto on June 18, 2008. Since then gas prices have dropped by over 60%.

[Hugin]

15. Yay! So that's what happened!

:applause:

[ozymandius]

16. Even better -

This happened after the House and Senate overrode Bush's veto. That's 2/3 of each house telling Enron Phil to "eat shit". :woohoo:

[Hugin]

18. How'd we miss it?

Thorough bunch that we are? :/

Anyhow.... Wheeee! :woohoo:

:bounce:

[tclambert]

17. Why wasn't this big news?

Even the fact that Congress overrode a Bush veto should have made it newsworthy. Isn't there a single reporter left alive in America? Bleeding Jesus in 3-inch spike heels.

[GliderGuider]

24. How exactly did that piece of American legislation affect the global oil market?

Inquiring minds want to know. After all, the USA uses less than a quarter of the world's oil, and buys only a sixth of the global oil export volume. Since gas prices are tied to oil prices, the drop in gas prices would have to come in large measure from the fall in global oil prices. How did closing the Enron Loophole in the USA destroy the price of oil in Indonesia?

[ozymandius]

26. Anyone, anywhere can buy into the oil futures markets.

I recall in 2005 a radio interview with someone who used to work for Goldman Sachs in their energy investments department. The interviewee said that the major investment banks in the United States were buying oil because of the guaranteed return on the investment.

It basically worked like this. GS purchases a thousand barrels of oil at any transfer point (well head, onloading platform, offloading platform, domestic transfer hub, refinery, etc.) and receives a certificate showing their ownership of said oil. So GS never takes possession of the product. They merely own a thousand barrels of oil as it flows through a pipe. They can sell a portion of this oil domestically and internationally either as crude or as a derivative product. As global markets go, this is good as gold in its demand and instant monetary return.

The 'Enron Loophole' allowed GS (and any other investment entity, for that matter) to buy unlimited quantities and to shield those trades from any oversight into their exaggerated pricing structures. The closing of this loophole only affects domestic oil trades. A peripheral effect of this legislation, I believe, will influence the price of oil elsewhere on the global market.

This has effectively thrown a wet blanket on the behavior of energy traders worldwide.

[GliderGuider]

36. So are you saying that American money was driving the world oil market?

And that when American commodity money pulled out (BTW, where did it go?) The global price of oil collapsed from $147 to $40? I have a hard time wrapping my head around that.

[ozymandius]

37. American money, British money, Dutch money, Russian money

When my sister majored in Economics in the early nineties, she grew increasingly amazed at the incestuous relationship between business and government and the symbiotic relationship between governments that are reported to be enemies in the news. This frightful reality is so pronounced that nearly one-third of Economics majors switched degree programs because of this new enlightenment into how the world works.

Liquid assets, as it has been reported, have been pulled to the sidelines. When speculative interests were explored, the money suddenly withdrew like a turtle tucking its vulnerable parts inside its shell. The 'greater fool' theory also operates here. Speculators in line behind those that started the trend lost hat and hand.

[ozymandius]

12. U.S. Retail Gasoline Falls to $1.66 a Gallon, Lundberg Says

Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The average price of regular gasoline at U.S. filling stations fell to $1.66 a gallon as the nation’s recession sapped demand.

Gasoline slipped 9 cents, or 5.1 percent, in the two weeks ended Dec. 19, according to oil analyst Trilby Lundberg’s survey of 7,000 filling stations nationwide.

....

Crude oil, which accounts for about 59 percent of gasoline’s pump price, has tumbled 77 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel reached July 11 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

AAA, the nation’s biggest motoring club, said today that regular gasoline at the pump averaged $1.668 a gallon, down 59 percent from the record $4.114 in July.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ac7awTOtQMZU&refer=us

[Roland99]

25. RBOB about $0.96/ gal this morning.

[Festivito]

6. Debt: 12/18/2008 10,598,468,155,070.30 (DOWN 57,083,912,363.40) (Debt down.)

(Very little FICA change, lots of public debt change: less debt.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,360,780,102,719.10 + 4,237,688,052,351.27
DOWN 57,877,925,051.10 + UP 794,012,687.70
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is -2,815,895,427.36.
The average for the last 30 days would be -2,064,989,980.06.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 54 reports in 79 days of FY2009 averaging 10.62B$ per report, 7.26B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 33 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.5 and 10.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
12/18/2008 10,598,468,155,070.30 GWB (UP 4,870,272,358,888.73 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 573,743,258,157.90 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/28/2008 +000,783,239,406.89 ------------********
12/01/2008 +038,288,359,563.07 ------------********** Mon
12/02/2008 +000,199,375,927.74 ------------********
12/03/2008 -000,525,799,120.43 ---
12/04/2008 -022,902,653,130.86 -
12/05/2008 -000,187,074,568.06 ---
12/08/2008 -000,759,942,653.72 --- Mon
12/09/2008 +000,031,558,514.41 ------------*******
12/10/2008 +000,087,731,393.17 ------------*******
12/11/2008 -019,940,834,952.80 -
12/12/2008 -000,182,958,692.63 ---
12/15/2008 +027,986,876,028.13 ------------********** Mon
12/16/2008 +000,172,636,444.49 ------------********
12/17/2008 -000,200,107,551.80 ---
12/18/2008 -057,877,925,051.10 -

-35,027,518,443.50 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $933,836,351,811.23 in last 91 days.
That's 934B$ in 91 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 92% of that highest year ever only in 91 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 91 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3651810&mesg_id=3651825

[Festivito]

72. Debt: 12/19/2008 10,598,195,081,084.50 (DOWN 273,073,985.80) (Nearly zero.)

(An almost imperceptible change.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,360,410,841,483.38 + 4,237,784,239,601.18
DOWN 369,261,235.72 + UP 96,187,249.91
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is -2,460,383,733.79.
The average for the last 30 days would be -1,804,281,404.78.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 55 reports in 80 days of FY2009 averaging 10.43B$ per report, 7.17B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 32 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.5 and 10.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
12/19/2008 10,598,195,081,084.50 GWB (UP 4,869,999,284,902.93 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 573,470,184,172.10 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/01/2008 +038,288,359,563.07 ------------********** Mon
12/02/2008 +000,199,375,927.74 ------------********
12/03/2008 -000,525,799,120.43 ---
12/04/2008 -022,902,653,130.86 -
12/05/2008 -000,187,074,568.06 ---
12/08/2008 -000,759,942,653.72 --- Mon
12/09/2008 +000,031,558,514.41 ------------*******
12/10/2008 +000,087,731,393.17 ------------*******
12/11/2008 -019,940,834,952.80 -
12/12/2008 -000,182,958,692.63 ---
12/15/2008 +027,986,876,028.13 ------------********** Mon
12/16/2008 +000,172,636,444.49 ------------********
12/17/2008 -000,200,107,551.80 ---
12/18/2008 -057,877,925,051.10 -
12/19/2008 -000,369,261,235.72 ---

-36,180,019,086.11 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $933,563,277,825.43 in last 92 days.
That's 934B$ in 92 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 92% of that highest year ever only in 92 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 92 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3655650&mesg_id=3655662

[ozymandius]

8. Last holiday shopping weekend keeps retailers edgy

CHICAGO – The deals were there and, by most accounts, so were the shoppers. But at the close of the final holiday shopping weekend, consumers confessed they were still nervous about buying.

....

From flagship department stores to main street shops, consumers found packed parking lots, massive markdowns and extended hours — in some places, around-the-clock shopping — as merchants hope to salvage one of the worst shopping seasons in decades, brought on by the recession and growing economic uncertainty.

....

The International Council of Shopping Centers expects established stores to post their worst performance for the holidays since at least 1969, when it began tracking such data. It predicts same-store sales — or sales at stores open at least a year — will fall as much as 1 percent for the November and December period, and fears the decline could even be steeper.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081222/ap_on_bi_ge/holiday_shopping

[Pale Blue Dot]

19. This weekend may have destroyed a lot of retail businesses. (Reposted from GD)

I'm (thankfully) two years out of retail now - I used to be a General Manager for Staples - but I still remember how important the holiday shopping season was. Most of you have already read stories about how poorly retailers are doing this year. Last week I spoke to some of my former collegues and they said that business was way down and that the company was putting tremendous pressure on them; including making thinly veiled threats about how replacable they are in this current economy. It's important to note that I don't even think that Staples is one of the companies in deep trouble; imagine what it must be like working for Office Depot or OfficeMax or Circuit City. There is no wiggle room for retailers this year - everything had to go perfectly for the rest of the holiday season.

This is the weekend before Christmas - typically the biggest sales weekend of the year. And what's happened? Snow, and lots of it, blanketing the entire northeast and much of the rest of the country. The storm has already taken away many millions of dollars of Friday-before-Christmas sales. Worse than that is that there's another storm coming tomorrow, Sunday, that is likely to cost retailers many millions more.

Had the storms come earlier in the month there still would have been time to make up these lost sales. And while it is likely that some of these dollars will be made up on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, there simply isn't enough time to recover all, or even most, of them. This is a disaster for a retail industry that needed to have everything go exactly right in the closing weeks of 2008 to even have a chance to stay afloat.

I think that years from now historians may look back upon this weekend as the straw that broke our economic back.

[ozymandius]

21. Retail Space to be Vacated

from Calculated Risk

Back in October, the WSJ reported that mall vacancy rates increase sharply in Q3:

For strip centers and other open-air shopping venues, the vacancy rate climbed to 8.4% in the third quarter from 8.1% in the second quarter. That marks the highest rate since 1994, according to Reis. Meanwhile, retailers' closures outpaced new leases by 2.8 million square feet in U.S. strip centers in the third quarter, the third consecutive quarterly net decline. It is the first nine-month period of so-called negative net absorption since Reis started tracking the data in 1980.
...
The vacancy rate at malls in the top 76 U.S. markets rose to 6.6% in the third quarter, up from 6.3% in the previous quarter, to its highest level since late 2001, according to Reis.

-see graph-

This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate since Q2 2007. Note that the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

But clearly it is about to get much worse.

Pre black Friday closing & liquidation announcements have come from Shoe Pavilion, Steve & Barry's, Gordman's, Radio Shack, JoAnn Fabric, Boscov's, Bennigan's, Winn Dixie, Office Max, Comp USA, Pier 1, and Sigrid Olsen. Of the 2 billion square feet of community/neighborhood retail space in the largest 76 metropolitan areas, vacancy has increased by 0.75% so far in 2008 (source: REIS).

---

Calculated Risk has an extensive list attached to this posting. It is by no means exhaustive despite the fact that the number of companies closing stores, liquidating outright is extremely long.

[DemReadingDU]

39. Maybe the after-Christmas sales will bring in the people?

:shrug:

[Ghost Dog]

44. "historians may look back upon this weekend..."

Referring specifically to the weather-factor?

That's interesting.

[Dr.Phool]

64. I plan on going to a new mall tomorrow evening.

But, I have no intention of entering a store. And I'll put my wife on one of those kid leashes.:evilgrin:

I saw on the local news that they have their outdoor light display choreographed to Trans Siberian Orchestra music, and it looked like some cool, free holiday entertainment.

[ozymandius]

9. World stocks mostly lower after Toyota warning

LONDON – World stock markets mostly fell Monday in light pre-Christmas trade after Japan's Toyota Motor Corp. issued its second profit warning in less than two months amid plunging car sales around the globe.

The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 53.10 points, or 1.2 percent, or 4,233.83, while Germany's DAX was 86.57 points, or 1.8 percent, lower at 4,610.13. The CAC-40 in France fell 56.54 points, or 1.8 percent, to 3,169.36.

The losses in Europe were stoked by the warning from Toyota, the world's biggest automaker, that it will likely post an operating loss of 150 billion yen ($1.66 billion) in the year to end-March, the first such loss since Toyota began reporting such numbers in 1941.

....

But early gains in Asia soon faded amid worries about the U.S. and global outlook, as well as shrinking demand for Asian-made products like cars and electronics that keep the region's economies growing, analysts said. In Japan, new figures showed a record 26.7 percent plunge in exports last month compared to a year ago.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081222/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

10. Hong Kong stock index falls 3.3 percent

HONG KONG – Hong Kong's key stock index dropped over 3 percent Monday as worries about the global economy and company earnings led investors book profits after the market's recent run-up.

The blue-chip Hang Seng Index lost 505.12 points, or 3.3 percent, to finish at 14,622.39, its lowest close in more than two weeks. Since hitting its November lows, the benchmark had bounced back more than 20 percent as of Friday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081222/ap_on_bi_ge/as_hong_kong_markets

[tclambert]

20. You think Sen. McConnell will vote for a bailout for Toyota?

Toyota's financial troubles might affect HIS state.

[ozymandius]

22. If a bailout puts money in his pocket? Sure.

That man is all about money: His money.

[ozymandius]

11. China Cuts Key Rates for Fifth Time in Three Months

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- China cut interest rates for the fifth time in three months to support the world’s fourth-biggest economy after trade growth collapsed because of recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan.

The one-year lending rate will drop by 0.27 percentage point to 5.31 percent and the deposit rate by the same amount to 2.25 percent from tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said on its Web site. The central bank also reduced the proportion of deposits lenders must set aside as reserves by 0.5 percentage point.

Exports fell for the first time in seven years last month, imports plunged and manufacturing contracted by a record. China’s slowdown will deepen before a 4 trillion yuan ($584 billion) stimulus package kicks in from the second quarter of next year, Liu He, a senior policy official, said Dec. 12.

....

China reduced rates by the most in 11 years last month and announced the package of spending through 2010 on infrastructure and low-cost housing. The State Council pledged Dec. 13 to boost money supply by 17 percent next year to encourage lending and buoy domestic consumption.

Still, economic growth may slump to 5 percent in the first half of next year, less than half the 11.9 percent expansion in all of 2007, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Plc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aj0treTULm6w&refer=home

[ozymandius]

13. Saving Capitalism No Sure Thing as Statism Undermines Economy

...
The Bush administration’s $13.4 billion rescue of GM and Chrysler is a fitting finish to a year in which governments around the world expanded their role in the economy and markets after three decades of retreat.

The intervention comes at what may prove to be a steep price. Future investment may be allocated less efficiently as risk-averse politicians make business decisions. Whenever banks decide to lend again, they are likely to find new capital requirements that will curb how freely they can do it. Interest rates may be pushed up by government borrowing to finance trillions of dollars of bailouts.

....

The increase in the government’s role in the economy has been breathtaking. The U.S. looks set to rack up a budget deficit of at least $1 trillion this fiscal year, while the Federal Reserve has already increased its balance sheet by $1.4 trillion since last December. By way of comparison, U.S. gross domestic product last year was $13.8 trillion.

....

Government activism has become a “necessary evil” to help pull the global economy out of recession, says Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit MIB in London. Even Bush, who ran for the U.S. presidency espousing smaller government, agrees. He told a CNN interviewer last week he has “abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system.”

....

Regulation is back in style as policy makers seek to avoid a repeat of the financial crisis. Leaders from the Group of 20 nations are crafting a plan to require banks to maintain higher capital levels and disclose more about their holdings.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&refer=us&sid=aDjmuEpDoctc

---

Good! Speculation in the go-go stock markets has become erratic like discussing existentialist philosophy with a crazy person.

[ozymandius]

14. What Does Regulation Regulate?

Here’s one of the simple truisms that gets lost in the political (i.e., bumper sticker) discussions.

Don’t regulate the free markets! Don’t interfere with innovation! Don’t stifle incentives!

What bullshit.

....

When we discuss “Regulations,” we are talking about regulating human behavior. And that behavior can range from following misplaced incentives to falsifying accounting data to overtly legal but destructive actions — like putting people into loans they knew (or reasonably should have known) were likely to default.

What a terrible sham the no “regulation cry” has been. It is really a vote for no rules against illegal and/or criminal behavior . . .

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/what-does-regulation-regulate/

[tclambert]

23. When the free marketeers praise the virtues of the free market,

they are always praising the virtues of a competitive market. They freely quote Adam Smith's On the Wealth of Nations and talk about the "invisible hand" of the marketplace guiding us to a better, brighter future. Then they pull the ol' switcheroo, and talk about the "free market" being free of regulations, free of all controls, free for monopolies and cartels to stifle competition. The open secret is businesspeople don't like competition. They all have a natural desire to corner the market. They want to take control of the market and dictate to it, rather than following the dictates of the customers who make the decisions in a competitive market.

A "free" market, free of regulations and competition, morphs into a centrally planned market, run by corporate executives. It ends up remarkably similar to the old Soviet centrally planned economy.

[Dr.Phool]

27. I think the Doublespeak Award goes to the banking industry.

I've watched banks merge and acquire each other for the last 20 years or so. It's always been a good thing. It allows them to "better compete", or be "more competitive".

Compete with whom? You've eliminated a rival. Closed branches. Shed jobs. And done absolutely nothing for the communities involved, other than allow former employees to "compete" for the jobs that are left.

[ozymandius]

28. This philosophy also rhymes with Ayn Rand's 'objectivism'.

We have seen this notion discussed here at the SMW before. So naive is this notion that people willfully obey inherent codes of reason in dealing with others.

[Tansy_Gold]

43. . . . . .

:shrug:


pun intended



Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

57. Ayn Rand's definition of 'objectivism'

"My philosophy, in essence, is the concept of man as a heroic being, with his own happiness as the moral purpose of his life, with productive achievement as his noblest activity, and reason as his only absolute."

and on J.K. Galbraith's response:

"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."

Hardly any room for altruism, IMO.

Edit: In Rand's philosophy, an act of kindness gauged by its 'opportunity cost'.

[Tansy_Gold]

58. Oh, I know all that, Ozy. I was just

shruggin' is all :evilgrin:


:hi:

[Joe Chi Minh]

77. Kind of like saving those villages in order to bomb them again at

some later date. Interesting.

[ozymandius]

29. Futures around 8am

S&P 500 +4.20 885.50 12/22 8:14am

NASDAQ +6.25 1217.25 12/22 8:01am

Dow Jones +42.00 8575.00 12/22 7:49am

[UpInArms]

30. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.935 Change -0.139 (-0.18%)

Euro Momentum Stalled By Record Drop In Industrial New Orders

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro_Momentum_Stalled_By_Record_1229943150670.html

The Euro pushed back above 1.4100 as the single currency has steadily climbed since Friday’s low of 1.3828 before a record low in industrial new orders reversed gains. October saw demand drop 4.7% after a revised 5.4% decline the month prior, dragging the annualized rate down by a record 15.1%. The Euro found early momentum from The Gfk German consumer confidence report showing that sentiment remained unchanged at 21 as easing inflation has offset the recession concerns. Meanwhile, November French factory gate costs fell by 1.9% following a 0.9% decline the month prior. A 7.1% drop in energy costs would lead the way with a 1.3% drop in intermediate goods adding to the decline. Also, German import prices fell 3.4% in November following a 3.6% drop the month prior.

The Euro has seen extreme volatility as risk appetite and interest rate expectations have fluctuated. The ECB has reverted back to its hawkish tone following its aggressive 75 bps rate cut on December 4th . This has offset markets expectations of another 150 bps of cuts aver the next 12 months. If the region’s economy continues to contract the central bank will be forced to follow policy maker sin the U.S.., U.K., and Japan and move toward a ZIRP. This could lead to Euro weakness throughout the beginning of 2009 with a move below 1.200 as a possibility.

The Pound gave back most of its gains from late Friday and is now looking to test last week’s low of 1.4813. Outgoing BoE Deputy Governor John Gieve"s admission that the BoE knew "crazy borrowing" was taking place during the boom years--but did not understand the severity of the problem, has hurt the pound. Expectations that more easing from the BoE is forthcoming will continue to weigh on the Sterling which could see it look to re-test 1.4500 before the end of the year.

An empty economic calendar will leave the dollar at the mercy of risk winds and end of the year activity. The upcoming Christmas holiday will lead to a week of low trading volume which will leave price action susceptible to large swings as institutional buying will have a larger impact. The rescuing of the U.S. auto industry and a large fiscal stimulus plan that is being prepared for 2009 may lead to traders looking to grab up bargains sending equity markets higher and the dollar lower. However, we could see continued demand for U.S. Treasury’s as the government will need to continue to issue new debt in order fund the growing deficit. The safe-haven flows could continue to add dollar support.

...more...

Dollar May Be Relegated to Ranges Amidst Holiday Trading

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/Dollar_May_Be_Relegated_to_1229737737527.html

The US dollar has many fundamental reasons to pull back, including: the White House’s auto bailout that may help to boost risk sentiment, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate cut last week, and the prospect of quantitative easing that could drive long-term interest rates lower. However, over the next week, the big question is: what sort of price action will we see? With the Christmas holiday looming on December 25, many of the world’s financial markets will close and trading volumes will fall dramatically. Thin markets have a tendency to result in either very choppy or very quiet price action. Given the volatility seen recently, there’s a greater risk that these sorts of trends will continue, but they may ultimately leave the US dollar consolidating above its recent lows within wide ranges.

Data wise, the final round of US GDP readings for the third quarter is not expected to show any revisions upon release at 8:30 ET on December 23. Indeed, annualized GDP is forecasted to go unchanged at -0.5 percent, while personal consumption is expected to hold at -3.7 percent. It will likely take a surprisingly low result to illicit any sort of reaction from the markets, as traders are already well aware that economic conditions in the US remain dismal. Meanwhile, economic releases due out at 8:30 ET on December 24 are likely to be broadly disappointing and add to indications that the US recession only worsened during Q4. Indeed, personal spending in the US is forecasted to have fallen negative for the fifth straight month in November at a rate of -0.7 percent, while durable goods orders are expected to have dropped 3.0 percent, marking the fourth straight month that demand has either stagnated or declined.



...more...

[UpInArms]

31. Who isn't a Madoff victim? The list is telling.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/16/news/madoff.hedges.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008121710

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- As the number of victims of Bernard Madoff, the criminally charged founder of the investment firm that bears his name, seems to multiply with the speed and force of a hurricane, certain types of investors seem to be absent -- so far, anyway -- from the casualty list.

That's no accident, argues James Hedges IV of LJH Global Investments, a boutique firm that invests in hedge funds and private equity for high-net-worth families. In other words, score one for the big institutions that stick to standard rules rather than allowing their managers to invest on personal connections or hunches.

"There's no Duke Endowment ," Hedges says. "There's no Harvard management, there's no Yale, there's no Penn, there's no Weyerhauser, no State of Texas or Virginia Retirement system."

The reason is simple, in Hedges' view. Letting Madoff manage your money "wouldn't pass an institutional-quality due diligence process," he says. "Because when you get to page two of your 30-page due diligence questionnaire, you've already tripped eight alarms and said 'I'm out of here.' "

In short, in Hedges' opinion, any sophisticated entity that actually did its homework would have seen the warning signs.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. The alleged $50-billion swindle shows that this country's financial deregulation has failed.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-rutten17-2008dec17,0,5635106.column

In one of his more melancholy moods, Isaac Newton mused that he could measure the movement of distant celestial bodies but could not gauge the magnitude of human folly.

It's a reflection with a certain compelling relevance given the stunning news that one of the country's most respected securities traders, Bernard L. Madoff, allegedly has swindled investors out of at least $50 billion. It's a staggering sum, one that approaches the ghastly totals rolled up by such epochal corporate frauds as Enron and Worldcom. More staggering yet is the roster of victims, which includes not only banks but high-flying hedge funds, professional investors such as Mortimer Zuckerman, cultural luminaries such as Elie Wiesel and Steven Spielberg, an Orthodox Jewish school and a variety of other charitable foundations.

Madoff, moreover, was not some brash outsider. For nearly half a century, he and the firm he founded have been pillars of Wall Street. He and his brother helped create NASDAQ and helped lead the securities trading industry's transformative conversion to electronic trading.

Robert Graves dismissively quipped that while there is no money in poetry, neither is there poetry in money. As we've all recently learned, there sometimes is the stuff of other literary genres: farce and tragedy. There's a little of each in the proud declaration that was featured on the website Madoff's firm maintained:

"In an era of faceless organizations owned by other equally faceless organizations, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC harks back to an earlier era in the financial world: The owner's name is on the door. Clients know that Bernard Madoff has a personal interest in maintaining the unblemished record of value, fair-dealing and high ethical standards that has always been the firm's hallmark."

In retrospect, it's a sentiment that brings to mind not Graves but Groucho -- "The secret to life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made." The breathtaking hypocrisy of publishing such a declaration suggests a lesson to be learned, and a mystery to be pondered.

...more...

bi-partisan blame passed around by the buckets -

and this is what happens when the country is led by fools who insist on doing this crap and anyone who doesn't go along with them are called "traitors" and the screamers on FAUX go after people with their one-sided bullshit and never have any discussion that shows the lies for what they are

[Joe Chi Minh]

76. ".... neither is there poetry in money." That reminded me of something former

UK premier, and subsequent European chief of the Carlyle Group, John Major, once remarked on the subject of some government money he had allotted for cricket, test matches or some such. "It must be the poetry in my soul...", he intoned, in that distinctively tinny, plangent, almost whiney kind of voice he has. To his credit, with a broad smile.

[ozymandius]

34. Meanwhile, SEC Chairman Cocks was focused on dismantling the SEC.

Cox "Worked to Dismantle The SEC," Says Commission Vet

That view has been echoed by several others in a position to know. Ross Albert told TPMmuckraker for a post published yesterday: "Under Cox, SEC had de-emphasized the enforcement program. Cox worshipped at the same altar of de-regulation that the rest of the Bush administration worshipped at."

And a former enforcement division supervisor told Portfolio for a lengthy October story about the SEC under Cox: "It was like someone poured molasses on the enforcement division."

How, specifically? Let us count the ways -- many of them detailed in that Portfolio story -- which focused on what it described as Cox's scaling back of the commission's enforcement role and was titled "SEC No Evil" -- as well as a followup web piece by the same writer, Scott Paltrow.

5 Failures of SEC Chairman Cox
1. Failure to enforce disclosure laws and regulations.
2. Failure to enforce accounting standards.
3. Failure to supervise the rating agencies.
4. Failure to investigate and prevent market manipulation, i.e., naked short selling.
5. Failure to protect small investors.

[Overseas]

54. Looks like he has done "a heck of a job" like a true Republican.

Destroy government institutions from within so people will lose even more faith in government.

[Tansy_Gold]

40. Does this then suggest that those who DID "invest" were more

interested in the high return than in how those returns were generated? In other words, were they motivated more by greed (yes, even well-meaning charites can be greedy) than anything else? They wanted the money and didn't care where it came from?



Tansy Gold, eyes wide open today

[ozymandius]

41. I have had the displeasure of meeting investors of this sort.

One personally told me that he would willingly invest in a company the showed aggressive return on pouring nuclear waste into the North Sea. I haven't spoken with him in years. On purpose.

[Tansy_Gold]

42. Well, you just made my point for me, Ozy

I have no sympathy -- as I have made very clear -- for those who invested with Madoff and lost everything. I have said from the start that ANYONE who has huge piles of money to "invest" and puts it all in one place must be doing so for a reason. Safety?? Maybe. But if one wants to be "safe" -- always remembering the caveat that one should only "invest" money that one is (financially and psychologically, I suppose) prepared to lose -- one should diversify one's investments. Say, invest in a variety of "safe" places.

But those who put everything with Madoff had to have a reason. And as we've seen ever since this story broke (pun intended), the key element seems to be the unusually high returns. That means pure unadulterated greed had something to do with it. And yes, I can with a clear conscience accuse Elie Wiesel of naked greed. I don't care how noble (or nobel) his operation is: he was going for the MONEY. Nothing else mattered as much as the money. Not Madoff's reputation, not his religion, nothing. It was "gimme the money" from the beginning.

"But but but, we thought he was safe! He had been around so long! He was a pillar of the investment community! He gave to Democrats!" It's all hogwash to me -- they just wanted the money, they didn't care where it came from, and they can all go scratch as far as I'm concerned.

THAT SAID, however, NO ONE has mentioned the investors who DID get something back. How much did they get back? You can't tell me that investors were giving Madoff millions, hundreds of millions, and got noting in return. They were getting something. And that something, however much it was, needs to be accounted for.

And one way or another, it will be. Eventually.

But I have no sympathy for them. Obviously there were many investors who had the brains and/or the ethics to stay away. Piss on those who had neither.

Tansy Gold

[tclambert]

49. The way I looked at it back when I had investments,

was that I was hiring the mutual fund managers to do the research and follow the information for me. A lot of investors hired Madoff based on his rep and the returns he made. You could look at it as an employee embezzling from you. And that shouldn't happen because the SEC is there to protect you.

I DO feel for the victims. Their sin was trusting someone. And the someone in this case was a skillful deceiver. Banks and billionaires were fooled. The little people whose retirements were ruined didn't have a chance.

[Tansy_Gold]

55. the very first caveat of "investing" is make sure you can afford to lose.

there is NEVER a guarantee. NEVER NEVER NEVER.

Those who forget that -- or ignore it -- are doing so for a reason. Stupidity? In this case, I don't think that's gonna wash.

Now, if some of these people invested through a third party, that's different. The middle man is the one who got greedy, who wasn't anymore trustworthy than Madoff. His first duty is to his investors and he failed.

I'm sorry. I just have no sympathy. None. Not a fucking drop.




TG

[PassingFair]

45. "They're laughing all the way to the bank"

I am also repulsed by folks who think
that profit trumps common sense and morality.

I have no problem with them crying
about having to drop to "my level".

[Dr.Phool]

48. Oh, yes. I stayed up all night crying for those who lost "everything".

Some interesting comments on a lot of these "entitled" assholes.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Pamela%20Troy/63

[Tansy_Gold]

60. Oh, damn I shouldn't've read that when I have so little time to reply

words can't express my anger at the mentioned ms. penney. any relation to James Cash Penney, of the J C. Penney line? Oh well, no matter.

I'll write more -- oh, yeah, ms. Penney, i'm a writer, too -- when i get back from the cash job.

all puns woefully intended



including


Tansy Gold

[Joe Chi Minh]

79. Wow. By the second page! It's really surreal; and, I suppose, all too surreally real.

Could Kafka have written today? He would have depended on a world with ostensibly reliable bearings to counterpoint the louche, ambagious world of his novels. This world was bereft of the merest patina of plausibility, never mind reliability, to anyone who knew squat about the relationship between relatively massive profits and the risks incurred in seeking them.

[tomm2thumbs]

47. thanks for showing all of this stuff

it sure has a strange feeling to see so much change in so many months as this

[Pale Blue Dot]

52. Caterpillar slashing executive pay

PEORIA, Ill. - Heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar said Monday it will cut executive compensation by up to 50 percent next year because of weakening demand triggered by the global economic downturn.

The world's largest maker of mining and construction equipment also says it will reduce compensation for senior managers by 5 percent to 35 percent in 2009. Other management and support staff will see a reduction of up to 15 percent.

The Peoria, Ill.-based company says the cuts reflect planned reductions in its incentive program and equity-based compensation.

Caterpillar Inc. is also offering incentives to U.S. management and support employees to voluntarily leave the company. Eligible employees have until Jan. 12, 2009, to join the program.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28351182/

[Pale Blue Dot]

53. More Companies Are Cutting Labor Costs Without Layoffs

Even as layoffs are reaching historic levels, some employers have found an alternative to slashing their work force. They’re nipping and tucking it instead.

A growing number of employers, hoping to avoid or limit layoffs, are introducing four-day workweeks, unpaid vacations and voluntary or enforced furloughs, along with wage freezes, pension cuts and flexible work schedules. These employers are still cutting labor costs, but hanging onto the labor.

And in some cases, workers are even buying in. Witness the unusual suggestion made in early December by the chairman of the faculty senate at Brandeis University, who proposed that the school’s 300 professors and instructors give up 1 percent of their pay.

“What we are doing is a symbolic gesture that has real consequences — it can save a few jobs,” said William Flesch, the senate chairman and an English professor.

He says more than 30 percent have volunteered for the pay cut, which could save at least $100,000 and prevent layoffs for at least several employees. “It’s not painless, but it is relatively painless and it could help some people,” he said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/22/business/22layoffs.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

[ozymandius]

56. Update on down markets as developers are punished.

11:40
Dow 8,508.86 Down 70.25 (0.82%)
Nasdaq 1,533.37 Down 30.95 (1.98%)
S&P 500 873.01 Down 14.87 (1.67%)
10-Yr Bond 2.175% Up 0.044
NYSE Volume 1,602,499,375
Nasdaq Volume 535,960,000

11:30 am : With the economy on tenuous footing, property developers are making their case for government assistance, according to The Wall Street Journal. Many developers are warning that office complexes, hotels, shopping centers, and other commercial buildings are headed into defaults, foreclosures, and bankruptcies.

Developers Diversified Realty (DDR 4.91, +0.18) is trading higher, but General Growth Partners (GGP 1.43, -0.33) is markedly lower. General Growth fell to multiyear lows in recent months as concerns mounted regarding the company's ability to refinance its heavy debt load.

Automakers are trading with weakness. Shares of General Motors (GM 3.74, -0.75) and Ford (F 2.62, -0.33) are slumping despite the White House's recent decision to make more than $17 billion in TARP funds available to automakers. Canada even announced it would make more than $3 billion available to the Big Three's Canadian business arms, according to Reuters.

Despite the efforts to help automakers work through their current problems, the market understands the funds are not a cure all for the Big Three, and that a sluggish economy and weak consumer enviornment will slow their progress.

Separately, shares of GM were downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by analysts at Credit Suisse.DJ30 -48.35 NASDAQ -24.90 SP500 -12.05 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1790/841/495 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2023/969/311 mln

[4dsc]

61. Commercial real estate developers seek bailout

Filed under WTF header..

The commercial real estate industry is the latest to seek a government bailout.

A dozen real estate development groups have asked Uncle Sam for help to avoid defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies. The Wall Street Journal reports that some of the country’s biggest developers have asked Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to be included in a $200 billion loan program recently created by the government to support the market for car loans, student loans and credit card debt.

http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/stories/2008/12/22/daily2.html

[Dr.Phool]

63. Who's going to apply next? Burglars? Truck Hijackers?

"But, Mr. Paulson, they ain't shippin' nuthin worth stealing anymore".

"People already hocked their jewelry and TV's and ate the dog".

There's still too many developers running roughshod all over Florida. Come down here and punish them some more. It got so bad around here, that we now have 2 Mall-Wart Supercenters within 5 miles of my house. A third just a little further away. In the last 2 years they were planning on building 2 more within walking distance of my house. Public outrage got those 2 canceled.

[specimenfred1984]

67. Pirates! Evil pirates are going to get us all!

My TV keeps yelling that at me so I'm waiting for the TV poll question "Should we allow pirates on the high seas to steal everything?" That'll follow the usual nonchalant "Should we torture people"?

[Dr.Phool]

65. Krugman: Southern Discomfort.

Interesting Times article at the link.

December 22, 2008, 9:28 am
Southern discomfort

Heartrending story in the Times about the woes of South Carolina. In fact, unemployment rates in the Southeast have risen more than in the United States as a whole; there’s a sort of Slump Belt extending from the industrial Midwest down to the Carolinas.

Why is this happening? The Slump Belt does sort of look like the “auto corridor”; maybe what we’re seeing is the geographical location of cyclically sensitive manufacturing industries. Anyway, it’s striking that the worst of the crisis is hitting states that largely didn’t experience a housing bubble.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/22/southern-discomfort/?8ty&emc=ty

[Dr.Phool]

66. Mortgage re-defaults up; no sign of slowing

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28352594/

Mortgage re-defaults up; no sign of slowing
Number of delinquencies rose across all loan categories

updated 1 hour, 51 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - The rate of home mortgage borrowers defaulting after their loans are modified is rising and shows no signs of leveling off, U.S. banking regulators said on Monday.

The data showed that after six months, nearly 37 percent of mortgage loans modified in the first quarter were 60 or more days delinquent. After three months, 19 percent were 60 or more days delinquent or in the process of foreclosure.

"One very troubling point is that, whether measured using 30-day or 60-day delinquencies, re-default rates increased each month and showed no signs of leveling off after six months or even eight months," John Dugan, head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, said in a statement.

The number of delinquencies rose across all loan categories, although subprime loans had the highest default rates. At the same time, nine out of 10 mortgages remain current, the joint report by OCC and the Office of Thrift Supervision said.

(snip)

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

68. Goddamnit!

[ozymandius]

69. 3:44 update

Dow 8,434.70 Down 144.41 (1.68%)
Nasdaq 1,517.94 Down 46.38 (2.96%)
S&P 500 863.39 Down 24.49 (2.76%)
10-Yr Bond 2.141% Up 0.01
NYSE Volume 4,147,427,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,366,093,625

3:30 pm : Crude oil futures finished their session nearly 6% lower at $39.91 per barrel. That was a bit off their session lows.

Crude prices gyrated during the early going, but mounting weakness in the broader market proved too much for prices to stage a sustainable recovery.

Oil futures prices are now down more than 70% from their highs. Oil's precipitous decline has led OPEC to slash production as part of an effort to realign supply with demand, though the cuts seem to have had limited impact. Still, a Saudi oil minister indicated OPEC is determined to bring stability to the oil market.

January natural gas slipped almost $0.03 to nearly $5.31 after putting in lows of $5.21

The energy sector continues to trade with weakness. It is down 3.8%.

Gold shined in the face of the broader market’s glum. It maintained its gains through the session to finish more than 1% higher at $847.20 per ounce. March silver added just a penny to settle at $10.86 per ounce.

Despite the strength in metals, commodities traded lower. The CRB Index is off 1.6%, which has weighed on the materials sector (-5.3%).DJ30 -204.38 NASDAQ -60.44 SP500 -30.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 667/1.28 bln/2137 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 714/790 mln/2398

[Festivito]

70. Detroit FREE Press: Analyst: Game over for GM stockholders (->$1)

Source: Detroit Free Press

The game is over for holders of General Motors Corp.’s existing stocks and bonds, Credit Suisse auto analyst Chris Ceraso wrote in a note to investors today.

Ceraso downgraded Credit Suisse's rating of GM from neutral to underperform and dropped its target price for the stock to $1 from $2.


The news caused many investors to dump their investment in GM.


Shares of GM were trading at $3.72 mid-day. That’s down 17.59%, or 79 cents, from Friday’s close.


“Over the next two months, as bondholders, union representatives and company management meet to hammer out concessions, we think it will become increasingly clear that the enormous sacrifice of value on the part of the union (upwards of $10 billion) and bondholders (about $24 billion) will require the complete or near-complete elimination of the existing GM equity,” Ceraso wrote.

http://www.freep.com/article/20081222/BUSINESS01/81222018

DU POST:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3656342

Oh, this is going to hurt. Glad I sold mine three years ago, but so many have their retirements in this stuff.

[specimenfred1984]

71. MSNBC Douchebag, "Oil prices won't fall forever"

Darn, I thought they would until they hit negative infinity.

[truthisfreedom]

74. $20 this coming year, $10 in a few years. That's my prediction.

[ozymandius]

73. all over but the blather

Dow 8,519.69 Down 59.42 (0.69%)
Nasdaq 1,532.35 Down 31.97 (2.04%)
S&P 500 871.63 Down 16.25 (1.83%)
10-Yr Bond 2.141% Up 0.01
NYSE Volume 4,900,865,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,629,324,875

[DemReadingDU]

75. Fiscal Insanity Virus Rapidly Spreading The Globe (Part 1 & Part 2)

By Mike Shedlock
12/22/08 Warning: A dangerous new virus, FIV, is rapidly spreading the globe.

This part 1 of a very long post. The symptoms of the disease are complex. Part 1 addresses the symptoms of the disease and part 2 continues with more symptoms and a discussion about preventative measures and cures.

Scientists have dubbed the disease, FIV, the Fiscal Insanity Virus.

FIV is more contagious and far more dangerous than the common flu virus now making its rounds. The primary symptom of FIV is irrational, often delusional fear of deflation. The virus has an uncanny ability to seek victims in positions of authority. Those afflicted with the virus start taking (or promoting) fiscally reckless actions guaranteed to damage the host country.

lots more...
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/dangerous-virus-rapidly-spreading-globe.html


12/22/08 Fiscal Insanity Virus Rapidly Spreading The Globe (Part 2)

This post is a continuation of Dangerous Virus Rapidly Spreading The Globe (Part 1).

If you have not yet done so, please read part 1. The symptoms of the FIV disease are complex. Part 1 addresses the symptoms and part 2 below continues with more symptoms and a discussion about preventative measures and cures.

lots more...
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/fiscal-insanity-virus-rapidly-spreading.html

[Dr.Phool]

78. What credentials for a regulator! From Keating to Indy Mac.

I guess some guys just have that magic touch.

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/12/top_ots_official_removed_in_wa.php


Top OTS Official Removed in Wake of IndyMac Failure
By David Kurtz - December 22, 2008, 4:17PM

The Office of Thrift Supervision has removed its west region director as a result of an inspector general's investigation into the collapse of IndyMac earlier this year, according to correspondence made public today by Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA).

Darrell Dochow was fingered by the OTS inspector general as having approved a backdated capital infusion of $18 million into IndyMac by its holding company to stave off a downgrade in the rating assigned to the bank. A downgrading in its level of capitalization would have triggered additional regulatory restrictions on IndyMac, according to a letter to Grassley (.pdf) from OTS Inspector Eric M. Thorson.

This isn't the first time Dochow has been the regulator involved in a major banking collapse. A generation ago he resisted calls to shut down Charles Keating's Lincoln Savings and Loan before its collapse, which became notorious thanks to the Keating Five scandal.

Dochow's approval for the backdating came in early May and was intended to buttress the bank's capital position as of the end of the first quarter, March 31. The plan -- some details of which, Thorson concedes, remain unclear -- was discovered by the inspector general for the FDIC in documents held by IndyMac's auditor, Ernst and Young, and were turned over to Thorson's office.

Thorson's investigation, which is ongoing, found that OTS allowed other thrifts to similarly backdate capital infusions, but the letter provides no additional details about those other cases.

(snip)

Update:

Late Update: The Washington Post has more:

Dochow was appointed regional director in September 2007 after serving as the No. 2 in the western region. He was paid $230,000 in 2007, according to government records. Dochow got the job shortly after playing a leading role in persuading Countrywide to move under OTS supervision, a major coup for the agency, which is funded by fees from the companies it oversees.

In the late 1980s, Dochow had been the chief career supervisor of the savings-and-loan industry, and federal investigators later concluded he played a key role in the collapse of Charles Keating's Lincoln Savings and Loan by delaying and impeding proper oversight of that thrift's operations.

Dochow was shunted aside in the aftermath and eventually sent to the agency's Seattle office. Several of his former colleagues and superiors have said that he gradually reestablished himself as a credible regulator and again rose in the organization.

[UpInArms]

80. Heck of a job, Dochow!

good grief!

why are these people allowed to screw us over so badly!

[specimenfred1984]

81. Arrest the corrupt (R)s or they just come back to commit crimes again

It's doesn't matter how many times I say it or how much evidence there is to back it up, there are always millions of people who think they are the better person by offering "redemption" to the criminals. These people are spread all over DU too, every single day. America is screwed, for years and possibly decades.