9th January:
EU says agreement on monitoring gas flow via Ukraine reachedRussia ready to pay market price for gas transit via Ukraine - PMWhen you look at the numbers provided by Vladimir Putin in that article (an increase in the transit tariff from $1.6 to $3.4 per 1000 cubic meters per 100km), one can only notice that he is effectively reducing the net gas bill of Ukraine to Gazprom by the same amount that they wanted to increase it with respect to gas prices. That means, that just like every other year, Ukraine will get about 25 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in exchange for the transit of Russian gas to Europe, ie Gazprom gets no money for that volume. Now, officially, all the gas sold to Ukraine (50 bcm) comes via RosUkrEnergo (about which questions are finally beginning ot be raised in the Western media). RUE is half-owned by Gazprom (thus the first 25 bcm of deliveries) and half by Centragas, officially owned by Ukrainian businessmen Firtash and Fursin. The real stakes are not what's happening with the 25 bcm provided by Gazprom, which generate no cash, it's what happens with the other half of the business.
There is no political, economic or diplomatic reason for that structure to be in place, both governments officially call for it to be dismantled, and yet, year in and year out, it remains. Why? Who is powerful enough to instrumentalize the official international policies of the two countries, and put them in the middle of an international crisis?
Maybe the EU could ask these questions, now that the urgency is fading?
http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2009/1/9/5822/93987 13th January:
Is Gazprom really expecting Europe to take its side against Ukraine?
It looks to me that Gazprom seems to be thinking that it had successfully managed to put the blame for the conflict on the Ukrainians, and was trying to push its advantage and finally separate the issue of payment for gas delivered to Ukraine from that of the transit of gas (thanks to the European monitors enlisted to put the blame on Ukraine for blocking further gas deliveries).
But it looks like we're back to square one: the Ukrainians will not accept to pay for the portion of the gas delivered by Gazprom, and will still hold transit hostage to impose that. It will be interesting to see Europe's reaction, but I don't see them taking sides in favor of Russia in this conflict.
...
Gazprom's main asset has been its reliability. Its extended shenanigans in Ukraine (where their case, once again, is rather narrow and weak, altogether) are endangering this a lot more than they improve prospects for additional revenue from Ukraine.
Unless, of course, this is still about the sharing of the behind-the-scenes loot. In which case, Europe might wonder how private interests can hijack the highest decision-making levels of a country for so long...
http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2009/1/13/72727/6938