http://americaneconomicalert.org/blogger_home.asp?Prod_ID=37#3129Alan Tonelson's Blog
The Rise and Too Partial Fall of Bob Rubin
Friday, January 16, 2009
Ain?t life just full of amazing coincidences? On January 9, Bob Rubin resigned in quasi- (and thus totally inadequate) disgrace as Senior Counselor and board member of the financial giant cum welfare queen Citigroup. The move came almost exactly ten years after the former Treasury Secretary was famously lionized ? along with former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Deputy Treasury Secretary Larry Summers ? by TIME magazine as a pillar of the Committee to Save the World.
Those were indeed the days for these outspoken champions of outsourcing-focused U.S. trade deals and unfettered globalization. In case you forgot, Russia and much of East Asia and Latin America were convulsed by sequential financial crises during the late-1990s. The crackups were so big and unexpected and the contagion spread so rapidly that many feared a worldwide economic collapse. (Sound familiar?)
Thank heavens, TIME?s editors decided, Rubin and Greenspan and Summers were running the free world?s most powerful economy. They expertly steered the planet past the danger, saved the day, and even averted major systemic damage. In so doing, they once again demonstrated the virtues of free global markets, and taught a valuable lesson to those foolhardy Asian protectionists in particular.
How times change. Greenspan has now been exposed as the economic equivalent of a drug pusher. He enabled Americans? overspending addiction for most of this decade and created the illusion of prosperity by throwing unheard of amounts of cheap money at consumers. Savvy analysts recognize that he responded to the late-90s financial crisis essentially the same way ? by blowing asset bubbles.
Rubin and Summers also played key roles in this supposed strategy. In particular, they persuaded President Clinton to in effect bail out the bankrupt Asian and other third world mercantilists by keeping the U.S. economy fully receptive to their exports no matter what. Explained the president to a Tokyo audience in 1998:
?I made a decision with the full support of my entire economic team that we would do everything we could to leave America?s markets as open as possible, knowing full well that our trade deficit would increase dramatically for a year or two. I did it because I thought it was a major contribution we could make to stabilizing the global economy and the economies in Asia.?
Rubin, Summers and the rest of the Clinton-ites supported these steps even though they must have known that these export-led economies would try to recover by flooding the United States with super-cheap goods. They also must have known that U.S. outsourcing multinational companies would try exploit such largesse to the max. Clearly, their own countrymen?s jobs and earnings ? not to mention the productive base of their nation?s economy ? weren?t even on their screens. No wonder that after a decade of such bipartisan economic irresponsibility, America and the world find themselves careening toward a second Great Depression.
Citi?s woes over the last year finally tarnished Rubin?s Golden Boy reputation. After all, if the Senior Counselor and board member was such a whiz, why did the company make such boneheaded moves? I mean, I could have ruined Citi in return for a much smaller payout.
Tragically, Washington remains way behind the curve. Since Citi literally began falling apart over the last year (the company just announced this morning a break-up into two units), Rubin has remained a policy heavyweight. His proteges, like Summers, Timothy Geithner, and Jason Furman, were all either major Obama campaign advisors or big-time economic decision-makers (especially Geithner at the New York Fed). And these and many other Rubin-ites have been tapped to staff the incoming administration at the highest levels.
Moreover, Rubin created and for several years has financed the so-called Hamilton Project, a think tank inside the Brookings Institution aimed largely at preventing the Democratic party from rejecting outsourcing-focused trade policies. The main Hamilton message? Yes, these policies have created many more economic losers than we promised, but the best response is compensating them with crumbs of welfare and false promises of job-training and reeducation. Nothing must interfere with the march of outsourcing. True, this thinking is simultaneously silly and cynical -- and utterly un-Hamiltonian. But it has greatly influenced the national trade policy debate, and Obama in particular -- largely because it has Rubin's imprimateur.
Rubin's resignation letter made clear that he has no intention of moving to the policy sidelines. ?...I intend to intensify my engagement with public policy,? he declared, ?for example, the type of activity we have done at The Hamilton Project, where we have charted a more effective way forward in many economic policy areas.?
Some wag once wrote that, in Washington, nothing succeeds like failure. We can hope the Obama administration has the good sense not to make Bob Rubin and the demonstrable sham of Rubinomics the latest example of this syndrome. So far, however, the president-elect?s instincts seem to be just the opposite.
A final irony: Several observers (but none I?ve seen in the mainstream media), have noted the suspicious circumstances that surrounded Rubin?s move to Citigroup to start with. After all, he and Greenspan were among the 1990s leaders pushing hardest to repeal the Depression-era Glass-Steagall restrictions on financial corporations. Among other stipulations, this legislation required the separation of investment banking and commercial banking.
Glass-Steagall was repealed in 1999, and enabled Citigroup and others to be created as ?financial supermarkets? in the first place. In the process, of course, they became ?too big to fail,? and we taxpayers are now bankrolling them ? sky-high executive compensation and all. Rubin?s tenure at Citi began that year, and earned him at least $115 million through last week. Sound fishy to you?
But here?s the irony: The main substantive argument that Rubin and others made reflected globalization-related considerations. How, they asked, could American financial institutions compete adequately against foreign counterparts not hamstrung by Glass-Steagall-like regs? In particular, how could they compete against the scale their competitors enjoyed?
Wall Street and its shills insisted that the only response was what I call ?globalization defeatism?: the United States has no choice but to adopt these foreign practices. For as everyone knows, America needs the rest of the world more than the ROW needs us.
Of course, Rubin & Co. had it (and still have it) completely backwards. The United States still holds at least the plurality of the cards ? despite the globalizers? best trade-related efforts to squander them. The answer to Wall Street?s 1990s competitiveness problem was to recognize that doing business in America for foreigners is a privilege, not a right, and to use U.S. leverage to require foreign entrants to conform to our standards. If they refused, that would be their decision to make. But would many of them really have let their pride shut them out of the world?s largest and deepest capital markets? Get serious.