STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday February 6

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday February 6, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 1

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 5, 2009

Dow... 8,063.07 +106.41 (+1.34%
Nasdaq... 1,546.24 +31.19 (+2.06%)
S&P 500... 845.85 +13.62 (+1.64%)
Gold future... 914.20 +12.00 (+1.33%)
30-Year Bond 3.63% -0.04 (-1.06%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.90% -0.02 (-0.55%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

The Pictures Tell the Story
BY MICHAEL PANZNER

Today, the Labor Department reported that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose a greater-than-expected 626,000. Curiously, some commentators have downplayed the fact that claims are back to where they were more than 26 years ago because the labor pool is much larger than it was then.

However, even if you graph jobless claims relative to the number of (nonfarm) workers it paints a bleak picture. Using the most recent data (and assuming that tomorrow’s jobs report is in line with expectations), the ratio has just hit its highest level since 1983, lending further support to the notion that the current downturn is the worst in decades.

(lotsa charts)

....

Stocks ended the day higher, boosted by speculation of an imminent change in bank mark-to-market accounting rules and optimism that Washington’s multi-billion dollar federal stimulus package would soon be passed into law. Strength in energy shares following a late-day recovery in crude oil prices also gave the market a lift.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Average Workweek Jan
Briefing.com 33.3
Consensus 33.3
Prior 33.3

08:30 Hourly Earnings Jan
Briefing.com 0.3%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.3%

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jan
Briefing.com -525K
Consensus -540K
Prior -524K

08:30 Unemployment Rate Jan
Briefing.com 7.5%
Consensus 7.5%
Prior 7.2%

14:00 Consumer Credit Dec
Briefing.com -$1.5B
Consensus -$3.5B
Prior -$7.9B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

36. NFPs lose 598,000 - unemployment rate @ 7.6%

01. U.S. Jan. nonfarm payrolls fall 598,000, most in 34 years
8:30 AM ET, Feb 06, 2009

02. U.S. Jan. unemployment rate rises to 7.6% from 7.2%
8:30 AM ET, Feb 06, 2009

03. U.S. payrolls drop 3.6 million since start of recession
8:30 AM ET, Feb 06, 2009

04. U.S. Jan. average hourly earnings up 5 cents, or 0.3%
8:30 AM ET, Feb 06, 2009

05. U.S. Jan. total hours worked fall 0.7%
8:30 AM ET, Feb 06, 2009

06. U.S. Jan. nonfarm payrolls worse than 525,000 loss expected
8:30 AM ET, Feb 06, 2009

07. U.S. Jan. unemployment rate higher than 7.5% expected
8:30 AM ET, Feb 06, 2009

08. U.S. benchmark revision lowers Dec. payroll count by 311,000
8:30 AM ET, Feb 06, 2009

09. U.S. Jan employment rate highest since Sept. 1992
8:30 AM ET, Feb 06, 2009

10. U.S. Jan. factory payrolls fall 207,000, most in 26 years
8:30 AM ET, Feb 06, 2009

(changed embarrassing typo) :blush:

[UpInArms]

39. U.S. January job losses most severe in 34 years

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE5153B720090206

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers slashed 598,000 jobs in January, the deepest cut in payrolls in 34 years as the national unemployment rate shot up to 7.6 percent, according to a Labor Department report on Friday that underlined a deepening recession.

January's job losses were worse than the 525,000 that had been forecast by Wall Street economists, who also had expected the unemployment rate to come in lower at 7.5 percent. The bleak employment data is certain to be cited by the Obama administration as a fresh reason for Congress to speed up debate over a multibillion-dollar package of proposals to try to stimulate economic activity.

Last month's job reductions were the largest since 602,000 in December 1974, while the jobless rate reached its highest level in more than 16 years.

"January's sharp drop in employment brings job losses to 3.6 million since the start of the recession in December 2007," Commissioner of Labor Statistics Keith Hall said in a statement, and "about half the decline occurred in the last three months."

January's losses followed upwardly revised cuts of 577,000 in December and 597,000 in November.

The manufacturing sector bled jobs at the sharpest rate during January in more than 26 years, shedding 207,000 workers after cutting 162,000 in December. The last time more factory jobs were lost in a single month was in October 1982 when 221,000 were cut. An index measuring total paid hours for factory workers dropped to its lowest level since 1940, department officials said.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls below $41 as recession batters US

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $41 a barrel Friday in Asia as soaring U.S. unemployment and bleak corporate results kept investors pessimistic about demand for crude.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell 32 cents to $40.85 a barrel by afternoon in Singapore in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract overnight rose 85 cents to settle at $41.17.

....

The number of people remaining on the unemployment compensation rolls increased slightly to nearly 4.8 million, the most since records began in 1967.

With millions out of work, investors fear a downward spiral of falling consumer demand and company losses could lead to further job cuts and weakening crude demand.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 1.14 cents to $1.26 a gallon. Heating oil dropped 0.58 cent to $1.36 a gallon while natural gas for March delivery was steady at $4.64 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

29. March crude down $1.38 to $39.80 a barrel on Globex

01. March crude down $1.38 to $39.80 a barrel on Globex
8:08 AM ET, Feb 06, 2009

[ozymandius]

4. Pink slips stack up as recession drags on

WASHINGTON – Worn down by a drawn-out recession, cost-cutting employers are laying off workers at an alarming clip and there's no end in sight.

The Labor Department releases a report Friday expected to show that January was another cruel month for workers and companies.

With employers in no mood to hire, the unemployment rate is expected to jump to 7.5 percent in January from 7.2 percent in December, according to economists' forecasts. If they are right, that would mark the highest jobless rate in 17 years.

....

With fallout from the housing, credit and financial crises — the worst since the 1930s — ripping through the economy, analysts predict up to 3 million jobs will vanish this year — even if Congress quickly approves the stimulus measure.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090206/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

[ozymandius]

8. Sharp to cut 1,500 jobs, forecasts annual loss

TOKYO – Japanese electronics maker Sharp Corp. said Friday it will cut 1,500 contract workers in Japan by the end of March, and is headed for a billion dollar annual loss, its first in nearly 60 years.

Sharp said costs to restructure its flat-panel display business, together with losses in its stock holdings and regulatory fines would lead to a net loss of 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) in the current fiscal year through March.

The company, which previously forecast a 60 billion yen net profit, hasn't had a net loss since 1950.

Sharp said it will cut jobs by not extending the contracts of some of its temporary workers, and the cuts will not affect the company's full-time global work force, which currently numbers about 55,900.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090206/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earns_sharp

[radfringe]

14. every day the repubs delay the jobs bill...

Total job loss for 2008: 2,600,000
January 2009 jobs lost: 522,000
Total: 3,122,000

Based on a 30-day month, this averages to 8,005 jobs lost per day.

To put it another way 333 jobs are lost per HOUR

[tclambert]

18. The Blue Man group is laying off.

Seriously. No, they're not going down to 2 Blue Men. Their Chicago show is cutting the number of backups on payroll. Tobias Funke won't get his shot. (Obscure Arrested Development joke. But I bet a lot of you got it.)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=210x25094

[Pale Blue Dot]

25. It's finally hitting home for me - my ex-wife is in danger.

As some of you may know, I follow the layoff news very closely. One of the reasons that I do this is because my ex works in Philadelphia for a major hotel chain. With the cuts in corporate and personal travel, I've been expecting to see mass layoffs in the hospitality industry - but I've been surprised to see very few so far.

Wednesday my ex-wife was called into her boss's office and was asked to take the rest of this week off - without pay. They're having meetings to determine what the next steps will be, but she thinks that she may lose "one or two days a month". I, on the other hand, think it's entirely possible that she may not have a job on Monday.

Back it 2003 we would talk about the economy. As a "doomer" (as some on DU dismissively call realists), I was beginning to fear this collapse already. She and I would have discussions, and I told her that I believed that our levels of debt were unsustainable and that a collapse was inevitable. I told her that in such a scenario, her job would not be safe. I said that she should examine her options and try to find a job in a safer industry. She didn't listen.

I am not a crazy person. I am not always right in my opinions, but I always base those opinions on the best facts I have. She, and many, many others, based their opinions not on facts, but on what they wanted to believe. I saw this coming, I tried to warn people, and no one wanted to believe any of it. They wanted to believe I was a doomer.

Now the ex is telling me that if she has to get a part time job, she will. As readers of the SMW, you and I both know that there are very, very few parttime jobs out there - or jobs of any kind. She still wants to believe what she wants to believe.

All of this has huge implications for our son. If my ex loses her job, she has very few options available. What would be best for my son, in that case, is for him to come live with me, where he can be in a stable environment and I can put him in a good school. I can't see her letting that happen - not out of malice, but simply because she would miss him too much.

My ex and I get along very well. I am not a ranter, I'm not a doomer, and I don't want the economy to fail. However, I am a realistic. I continue to be extremely frustrated by what I see as a willingness to ignore the facts on the part of Americans. As I feared, this "willing ignorance" is about to have real life consequences for me. I saw it coming, but I could do nothing to stop it.

Thanks for letting me rant. I may cross post this is GD, because I'm a masochist.

[Roland99]

41. Rant away. I know how you feel.

Although I got a voicemail yesterday about another possibility. Waiting on a callback now.

Hope things go well on your end.

BTW, how ironic I drove to Las Vegas to visit a friend to enjoy warm weather and it will be warmer back home next week!

[Tansy_Gold]

43. I can't take much time to post. I'm on deadline (daily)

but I hope to have some time this afternoon or week-end.

I understand where you folks are coming from. I struggle to keep my head above water, and over the past few days as I've REALLY struggled with the day job, I've had time to think.

You're not doomers. You are, like most of us here on SMW, eyes wide open. and pardon the pun, but the reality is what we have to focus those wide eyes on.


More later, if my fingers don't fall off my hands first.



Peace to all,


Tansy Gold

[Warpy]

51. We were doomers three to five years ago

as we saw all the pieces start to assemble into the picture of a major collapse.

Now, of course, we're just telling it like it is. None of us can expect credit for prescience.

[Tansy_Gold]

53. Doom

Well, the thing is, no one is addressing the fundamental problem, which is the concentration of wealth. As long as the majority of the profits from "the economy" continue to flow uphill at the current rate, there will NEVER be a "recovery."

All the resistance to any real change comes from those who do not want a serious alteration of the basic function. Tax cuts = benefit to the rich. Period. End of discussion. worst possible 'stimulus' tactic/strategy possible.

Best stimulus? Taxing the rich. Getting their hoarded wealth back into circulation. That's really the only way.


Off to work. . . .again, yet, still


TG

[AnneD]

45. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers.We play in the same sand box,PBD. Most of us that read this thread with any degree of regularity cannot say we weren't warned. With anything as major as this recession/depression, there are physical and emotional adjustment that have to be made.

The physical adjustments have been going on. People have cut spending and altered their lifestyles to a good degree but there will still be additional cuts before it is all over. We are beginning to see the emotional adjustments. Nuclear families with no extended family to help are hard pressed. Child abuse is up as stressed adults misdirect their anger. before things are finished-we will all find ourselves humbled as we struggle to do our everyday duties.

PBD, it is good that you have a good rapport with the ex because, after all it really is about the kids. Motherhood for most women is a very powerful emotion- as it should be. It is a survival instinct as much as the desire to breathe is. Speaking as a Mom, I can assure you that giving up you kid is the most gut wrenching thing that can happen. You feel like a total failure-even if you did nothing wrong and did the best you could. Perhaps something can be arranged before things get so desperate. We will se a lot of this happening-children sent to relatives that can afford to care for them, folks moving closer to help out, etc.

I truly hope that we rebound from this soon-but I don't see it happening. Perhaps we can help each other through this and make things more tolerable. We can do more pulling together than individually.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Pale Blue Dot]

50. Despite the tone of my post, I promise that I'm a very sensitive person.

I come off as a little harder on the internets, perhaps because here I can let out some of the frustrations that I (wisely) keep in check in the real world.

Of course I will work with her to find a solution that is not so drastic, if it should come to that. My fear is that if there are really no other good solutions, she won't be able to accept that.

[specimenfred1984]

55. I tell people I'm a "conspiracy realist" not a "conspiracy theorist"

It makes them laugh and makes me seem less like a "doomer". Admittedly, I've got a little of a doomer-complex from being called that and 1000 other names all related to my simple ability to see the bigger picture. Studies show that once a person believes something they need to hear the opposite opinion at least 5 times before they will even entertain the new idea, it's the main reason why propaganda is so successful.

[AnneD]

59. PBD.....

Your fears may be justified. This may get very rough and eventually we all may be doing things we don't like or never thought we would have to do.

You are among friends here so let your hair down when you need, vent that frustration, and face the world with renewed hope. That's what we have all been doing for the last 8 years:spray:

It is hard to understand nuances when reading posts-but I just sensed a justified concern for family (even ex) and friends.:hug:

[Hugin]

56. Very interesting...

You're correct. It had to start in the Hospitality Sector sooner or later.

Thanks for the heads-up and congrats on the new DU Moniker... It's a good one. :)

[ozymandius]

5. Toyota sees first annual net loss since 1950

TOKYO – Toyota, the world's largest automaker, sank into the red for the October-December quarter and acknowledged Friday it was heading for its first annual net loss since 1950 because of plunging global sales and the strong yen.

Joining a string of Japanese companies that have slashed forecasts, Toyota Motor Corp. said it expects a net loss of 350 billion yen ($3.85 billion) for the year through March.

That's a stunning reversal from the record 1.72 trillion yen profit the maker of the Prius hybrid and Lexus luxury line had earned the previous fiscal year. In December, the company thought it would eke out a small annual net profit, but the outlook has darkened since then, especially with the dramatic contraction in the U.S. auto market on which Toyota depends so heavily.

For the fiscal third quarter, Toyota racked up a loss of 164.7 billion yen ($1.81 billion), down sharply from the 458.6 billion yen profit it had the same period the previous year, as the global slump squelched sales.

Quarterly sales plunged 28.4 percent to 4.8 trillion yen.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090206/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earns_toyota

[ozymandius]

6. Bush overpaid banks in bailout, watchdog says

WASHINGTON – The Bush administration overpaid tens of billions of dollars for stocks and other assets in its massive bailout last year of Wall Street banks and financial institutions, a new study by a government watchdog says.

The Congressional Oversight Panel, in a report released Friday, said last year's overpayments amounted to a taxpayer-financed $78 billion subsidy of the firms.

The findings added to the frustrations of lawmakers already wary of the $700 billion rescue plan, known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program. Congress approved the plan last fall, but members of both parties criticized spending decisions by the Bush administration and former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

Financially ailing insurance giant American International Group, deemed by the Treasury Department to be too big to be allowed to fail, received $40 billion from the Treasury for assets valued at $14.8 billion, the oversight panel found.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090206/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/bailout_oversight

---

Simple math tells me that AIG received $25.2 billion for nothing. And how much did those union shops in Detroit ask for?

[UpInArms]

40. AIG, Citi deals gave U.S. Treasury least value

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5140SN20090206

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department bank bailout program received the least value from its investments in the most troubled surviving institutions -- American International Group and Citigroup, a new report from a watchdog panel showed on Friday.

The Congressional Oversight Panel report said the Treasury overpaid financial institutions by about $78 billion in its capital injections last year through the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

It paid $254 billion in 2008 in return for stocks and warrants worth $176 billion under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

This conclusion was first disclosed on Thursday by the panel's chairwoman, Elizabeth Warren, in U.S. Senate testimony.

But the new report provided more details on the methodology and it also concluded that the U.S. government received far less value than private investors did in recent major transactions in the financial sector.

The report showed that the Treasury got the worst deal on second-round investments in American International Group for $40 billion and Citigroup for $20 billion under special aid programs tailored for the two institutions.

For each $100 spent on these two companies. the Treasury received securities worth $41, the report concluded.

Earlier investments in eight institutions seen as "healthy" at the time, returned $78 for every $100 spent. These investments included an initial $25 billion for Citigroup, along with funds for Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, PNC Financial and US Bancorp.

The government's "subsidy" -- the percentage difference between the value paid and the value received -- was largest for AIG at 63 percent and smallest for US Bancorp at 5 percent.

The Congressional Oversight Panel hired an independent valuation firm, Duff & Phelps, to devise a methodology for comparing the government's investment to the value of the preferred stock and warrants received -- a difficult task because none of the securities is publicly traded.

...more...

[ozymandius]

7. Obama warns lawmakers that 'catastrophe' looms

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama warned lawmakers Thursday that the economic crisis could become a "catastrophe" unless they stop bickering and act, while the Senate's Democratic leader predicted that the president's economic-stimulus package will pass.

....

He thought — and Republican leaders agreed — that once lawmakers finish slogging through amendments to the plan, now estimated at $920 billion, final votes were likely as soon as late Thursday night or Friday.

Obama made a strong pitch Thursday for the measure's passage, citing data that reflect an increasingly ailing economy. The Labor Department is to report January unemployment figures Friday morning, and the numbers are sure to underscore that the economy is contracting severely.

....

The plan also includes $139 billion for aid to education; $40 billion for roads and transit; $30 billion for social welfare programs such as expanding unemployment insurance and food stamps; $39 billion for renewable energy projects and a rebuilt electricity grid; $22 billion to computerize U.S. medical records; $87 billion to reimburse states for Medicaid; and much more.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/politics/story/61609.html

[tclambert]

20. Obama said, "Don't come to the table with the same tired old policies that led to this crisis."

He extended a hand to them. They slapped it away. He slaps them in the face. It's on, motherfuckers.

The GOP has positioned themselves for a fall. Negativity, opposition, obstruction. All Obama has to do is succeed. Not easy, I grant you. But he doesn't have to be perfect, just not incompetent. In a year or two, say 2010, the Republicans are going to look pretty stupid. Well, even stupider.

[sendero]

23. I hate to sound negative...

.. but Obama has his work cut out for him. This stimulus package will HELP, but it is not going to "fix" anything. And I'm afraid that the public expects a "fix", and 3 years from the the Republicans will have a strong message with "we told you so".

Fact is, Obama is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. He's inherited a catastrophe, and he's expected to just fix it. There is no fixing it.

[tclambert]

60. Ah, but you don't have to achieve full recovery to claim success.

Economists mark the end of a recession as the point it bottoms out and just barely starts back up (peak to trough). If you're predicting 3 more years of continuously shrinking GDP, that is very negative. The Great Depression didn't have that. It was only 43 months. http://www.nber.org/cycles/ The longest was 65 months October, 1873 - March, 1879.)

If you're a politician, you could spin it as an improvement if the rate of job losses declines.

And I'll go out on a limb here and predict U.S. job losses will be less in February than in January.

I will further predict that there will be fewer job losses in 2009 than there were in 2008.

And in 2010, we will see months in which there is a net job gain. Possibly late in 2009.

[tclambert]

61. This tclambert guy must be nuts making happy, feel good predictions like that. What's he base it on?

1) February is 3 days shorter than January.

2 & 3) We now have a government that is determined to DO something about the problem and actually create jobs. In 2008, we had a government determined to let the market careen out of control.

These are not predictions of spectacular success, just moderate success. Obama doesn't seem perfect to me. Every two or three days, though, he seems pretty good. Every five or six days, I swear he's been reading Stock Market Watch and taking a dash of our advice.

(Here's some advice, Mr. President. It's all about jobs. You gotta make lots of jobs. Millions of 'em. We have to literally work our way out of this recession.)

[sendero]

64. Your..

.... scenario is awfully rosy. Just because we're not losing jobs as fast is hardly positive, and it will certainly mean more pain not less among the populace - they are not going to be calling THAT a "success".

[Ghost Dog]

9. Accounting rule change hopes spur Wall St. rally

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks rallied on Thursday on investor hopes that the government's plan to shore up the financial system will include a change in accounting rules that would stem bank write-downs and spur lending.

Bank stocks reversed losses in late morning to lift the Dow off its lowest level since the bear market low of November 21.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090205/bs_nm/us_markets_stocks;_ylt=AiV0Rd5GLJXTE2iGECyhGW.yBhIF

[ozymandius]

12. As I quipped in post #11 -

Who in their right mind would be willing to invest their own money in bank stocks given the record for banks' declared value of their assets and projected future performance?

The idiocy is an affront to the concept of 'intelligent life'.

[DemWynner]

58. I think I would

I see that the banks can do anything yet not be allowed to fail. That means right now there are a lot of bargains out there. Fannymae is at $.40 as opposed to $80 it was last year. now, I don't think it will get back to $80 any time soon, but at $.40, it is a bargain. Citi is at $4 as well. it may go down a little more but not too much, I don't believe. The government won't let them die and after they are on artificial life support for a while, they may get back up and start running again. If they get good physical therapy, they might do very well.

I wish I had the money to invest right now. I think that is the problem with a lot of people.

[Demeter]

19. You Mean, Go Back To Making Up Numbers All by Yourself?

[Festivito]

10. Debt: 02/04/2009 10,669,192,308,562.45 (UP 548,927,205.54) (Little, mixed-again.)

(Tiny amounts again today.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,363,352,273,371.93 + 4,305,840,035,190.52
DOWN 68,491,025.50 + UP 617,418,231.04

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.81, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 305,739,515 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $34,896.35.
A family of three owes $104,689.04. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 1,792,652,723.12.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,374,367,087.73.
The average for the last 33 days would be 1,249,424,625.21.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 11 reports in 15 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.54B$ per report, -0.31B$/day so far.
There were 86 reports in 127 days of FY2009 averaging 7.49B$ per report, 5.07B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,446 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 12.5 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/04/2009 10,669,192,308,562.45 BHO (UP 42,315,259,649.37 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 644,467,411,650.00 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/14/2009 -000,515,208,818.51 ---
01/15/2009 +020,470,437,698.93 ------------**********
01/16/2009 -000,579,761,204.80 ---
01/20/2009 -001,254,116,733.01 -- Tue
01/21/2009 -000,225,946,840.81 ---
01/22/2009 -010,383,446,466.83 -
01/23/2009 -000,119,553,441.75 ---
01/26/2009 -001,004,948,620.76 -- Mon
01/27/2009 +000,188,054,837.85 ------------********
01/28/2009 -000,240,130,414.24 ---
01/29/2009 +014,335,901,611.96 ------------**********
01/30/2009 +007,363,512,286.86 ------------*********
02/02/2009 +046,334,807,167.90 ------------********** Mon
02/03/2009 -000,138,225,404.41 ---
02/04/2009 -000,068,491,025.50 ----

74,162,884,632.88 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,004,560,505,303.38 in last 139 days.
That's 1,005B$ in 139 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 99% of that highest year ever only in 139 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 139 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3724024&mesg_id=3724064

[tclambert]

62. They say the Fed loaned out trillions of dollars as well.

Okay, that doesn't count in the debt. But what if borrowers (banks) default on the Fed's loans? Would those bad loans then show up in the debt? Have any done that yet?

[Festivito]

66. Bush admin quit reporting the M3.

Another group was calculating it, but just as they reported a huge increase in Fed holdings (just as the debt began to rise readying to bail AIG and then the banks), I did not see those reports any more and someone somewhere indicated that the private organization quit calculating the M3 also, or quit reporting their calculations.

The Fed prints money. I don't know if they call it loaned, or how they operate.

I do understand that if they have taken in a bunch of US dollars into their hold, that those dollars would be out of circulation, i.e. out of the money supply, and that would cause deflation, the kind of deflation we are experiencing now.

It makes me go Hmmmm.

[Festivito]

65. Debt: 02/05/2009 10,717,998,123,287.70 (UP 48,805,814,725.25) (Big 46B$.)

(This could be the start of something big.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,410,020,405,165.47 + 4,307,977,718,122.23
UP 46,668,131,793.54 + UP 2,137,682,931.71

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.81, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 305,745,686 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $35,055.27.
A family of three owes $105,165.82. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 3,586,350,538.29.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,749,535,412.69.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,660,840,721.95.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 12 reports in 16 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.06B$ per report, 0.04B$/day so far.
There were 87 reports in 128 days of FY2009 averaging 7.97B$ per report, 5.42B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,445 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 12.7 and 18.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/05/2009 10,717,998,123,287.70 BHO (UP 91,121,074,374.62 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 693,273,226,375.30 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/15/2009 +020,470,437,698.93 ------------**********
01/16/2009 -000,579,761,204.80 ---
01/20/2009 -001,254,116,733.01 -- Tue
01/21/2009 -000,225,946,840.81 ---
01/22/2009 -010,383,446,466.83 -
01/23/2009 -000,119,553,441.75 ---
01/26/2009 -001,004,948,620.76 -- Mon
01/27/2009 +000,188,054,837.85 ------------********
01/28/2009 -000,240,130,414.24 ---
01/29/2009 +014,335,901,611.96 ------------**********
01/30/2009 +007,363,512,286.86 ------------*********
02/02/2009 +046,334,807,167.90 ------------********** Mon
02/03/2009 -000,138,225,404.41 ---
02/04/2009 -000,068,491,025.50 ----
02/05/2009 +046,668,131,793.54 ------------**********

121,346,225,244.93 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,053,366,320,028.63 in last 140 days.
That's 1,053B$ in 140 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 104% of that highest year ever only in 140 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 140 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3726176&mesg_id=3726195

[ozymandius]

11. Geithner’s Bank Rescue May Emphasize Guarantees Over ‘Bad Bank’

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s strategy to aid the nation’s banks will likely emphasize guarantees of toxic assets over proposals to create a so-called aggregator bank that would remove them from balance sheets, according to people familiar with the plan.

The government guarantees, which might be modeled on those already given to Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp., may be coupled with the purchase of preferred shares in the banks that would be later convertible into common stock, some of the people said. The aggregator bank or ‘bad bank,’ has lost favor, in part because the potential costs involved, they added.

.....

Such a dramatic strategy isn’t likely this time, the people said. The administration, smarting over the fight in Congress over its $800 billion plus economic stimulus plan, is wary about asking lawmakers for more money now for the banks, according to some of the people.

That’s one reason why the administration looks to be backing away from setting up a giant aggregator bank to buy up the assets and at most may settle on a smaller version of that, they added.

.....

Banks are also pressing for the plan to include a temporary easing of mark-to-market rules that require them to reduce the value of assets they hold. The firms maintain that at least some of the assets are not that impaired, arguing that investors are being too pessimistic about their ultimate value.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4kNe4UbH6k8&refer=home

---

Banks have been so honest, thus far, about the value of their assets. Who could possibly say 'no' to such a plum deal? :sarcasm:

[tclambert]

22. OK, it sounds like you got part of what you wanted, Ozy.

De-emphasis of the "bad bank."

"The aggregator bank or ‘bad bank,’ has lost favor," the article says. Seems like it lost favor here quite a while back.

It's almost like this administration is actually listening, listening to people outside the bubble, listening to smart people who don't always agree with them. Sweet.

[Demeter]

30. Too Early to Hope, IMO

We've been jerked around before.

[ozymandius]

32. I would cheer - 'cept it's difficult to trust the judgment of those to get us

out of this mess who are equally responsible for getting us into it.

But yes. I am glad the aggregator bank idea has been discredited.

[ozymandius]

13. Fed Calls Emergency Consultants to Treat AIG, Stricken Markets

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Every Sunday night, New York bankruptcy lawyer Marshall Huebner spends a 13-hour shift on call as an emergency medical technician. His day job involves work on another sort of rescue: The government’s $152.5 billion bailout of American International Group Inc.

Huebner, 41, is part of an army of outside lawyers and consultants the Federal Reserve has called upon to help fight the biggest financial crisis in 70 years. While the central bank won’t disclose how much work it has outsourced, Fed watchers say the institution is relying on Wall Street experts to an unprecedented extent, seeking help from insiders in the very industries where the turmoil originated.

....

“Once the government starts getting into the business of restructuring companies, there are competency deficits,” said Phillip Phan, professor of management at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School in Baltimore. “It’s inevitable they’ll go back to Wall Street for advice.”

Still, he said, “the man in the street would say, ‘We’re paying to fix somebody else’s mistake by paying the very people who are part of the system that produced the mistake.’”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a.yAFsg.Y5kU&refer=exclusive

[Demeter]

16. Pull the Plugs on Them All

AIG, Citi, Morgan, BoA

Let them go the way of other has-beens. Or Better yet, as Miserable Failures.

Or the best of all possible worlds---book 'em, Danno!

[sendero]

24. I believe..

... that would, in the long term, be the best solution. But there is simply no political will to do it.

[Dr.Phool]

37. It's well past time that someone in this country developed a political spine.

They're insolvent. Plain and simple.

Throw their asses out. The stockholders lost their bet. Wipe them clean, and nationalize them.

[ozymandius]

15. Willem Buiter: The US and UK as Banana Republics (with nukes)

from Naked Capitalism

The "banana republic with nukes" meme has since gone mainstream.

Willem Buiter, who has some expertise in dodgy debtor nations, has a typically insightful post today, "Fiscal expansions in submerging markets; the case of the USA and the UK."

Despite the dry title, what is noteworthy is that Buiter discusses in some detail how corruption, both in the government and society, limits policy choices. Put simply, diseased leadership has trouble pulling a country out of a debt crisis because no one trusts that they will do the right thing (and frankly, why should they?).

Buiter makes a compelling case that lack of credibility has real costs, and uses it to bolster his argument that the US and UK should not go on the kind of whole hog spending spree that most orthodox ecconomists are demanding right now. He thinks a currency collapse, a scenario that most would dismiss as impossible for the dollar, is in fact probable at higher deficit levels in part because creditors and investors know the US and UK lack the discipline to trim the sails soon enough.

....

But the most important aspect of the post is not the policy implications, but the fact that a Serious Economist has finally said that the lack of scruples in America and Britain has gone beyond the tipping point, and is going to exact high societal costs. The parasites are eating the host. I hope someone out there is taking notice.

From Buiter:

During the decade leading up to the crisis, current account deficits increased steadily and became unsustainable. Strong domestic investment (much of it in unproductive residential construction) outstripped domestic saving. Government budget discipline dissipated; fiscal policy became pro-cyclical. Financial regulation and supervision was weak to non-existent, encouraging credit and asset price booms and bubbles. Corporate governance, especially but not only in the banking sector, became increasingly subservient to the interests of the CEOs and the other top managers.

There was a steady erosion in business ethics and moral standards in commerce and trade. Regulatory capture and corruption, from petty corruption to grand corruption to state capture, became common place. Truth-telling and trust became increasingly scarce commodities in politics and in business life. The choice between telling the truth (the whole truth and nothing but the truth) and telling a deliberate lie or half-truth became a tactical option. Combined with increasing myopia, this meant that even reputational considerations no longer acted as a constraint on deliberate deception and the use of lies as a policy instrument.

.....

The only element of a classical emerging market crisis that is missing from the US and UK experiences since August 2007 is the ’sudden stop’ - the cessation of capital inflows to both the private and public sectors. There has been a partial sudden stop of financial flows, both domestic and external, to the banking sector and the rest of the private sector, but the external capital accounts are still functioning for the sovereigns and for the remaining creditworthy borrowers. But that should not be taken for granted, even for the US with its extra protection layer from the status of the US dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency. A large fiscal stimulus from a government without fiscal credibility could be the trigger for a ’sudden stop’.

So just don’t do it. Focus fiscal resources on getting the credit mechanism and other key parts of the financial intermediation process going again. Effective Keynesian fiscal policy requires a virtuous policy maker, capable of credible commitment - that is, commitment capable of resisting the future the siren calls of opportunistic reneging on past commitments. The Obama administration is new and has had but limited opportunity to abuse the trust placed in its promises and commitments. That puts it in a better position that the UK government, which has been in office since May 1997. But many of the top players in Obama’s economic team are strongly identified with the failed policies, regulations and laws that brought us the disaster we are facing. So the amount of credibility capital is severely limited even for Obama. Use it to get credit flowing again. Tax cuts for friends and favoured constituencies, replacing clapped-out infrastructure and even the fight against global warming will have to wait until trust - public credit - is restored.

---

We have frequently read here at the SMW in our not-so-quiet discussions that bailouts, particularly for banks who are responsible for headaches, present a complexly faceted moral hazard. To me, it is exactly the same as the great heaps of praise given to Alan Greenspan, and his un-earned moniker "The Messtro" (sic), for trying to solve problems that he nearly singlehandedly engineered.

While those who helped create our crises should be kept nearby to assist with repairing the damage - they should not be on payroll. By 'nearby' - I mean in terms of how Jack Abramoff is kept 'nearby' as an occupant of an 'informant's desk' at the FBI.

[Demeter]

17. Good Morning, Ozy! Doing Your Ray of Sunshine Routine Again, I See.

The futures look very stable--am I missing something?

[ozymandius]

31. My Ray of Sunshine costume looks a bit tattered, with grease and ketchup stains.

The futures are just in a holding pattern while trading waits for the "Oh Shit" moment that is sure to herald the fugly job figures. Hope is the plan for right now.

[Demeter]

34. Well, at least you're eating!

Saving the fruits and vegetables for ammo, I take it?

I thought the markets soared yesterday because of the unemployment numbers.

This world doesn't recognize any Oh, Shit moments. Probably because that's all that's out there. Gresham's Law, isn't it?

[Demeter]

21. Mark Fiore Sends Up Business

http://www.markfiore.com/wall_street_executive_air_0

[UpInArms]

26. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.042 Change -0.033 (-0.04%)

US Dollar Rises Against Euro, British Pound Ahead of Jobs Report (Euro Open)

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/US_Dollar_Rises_Against_Euro__1233897539572.html

The US Dollar gained against the Euro and the British Pound despite a strong rebound on Asian stock exchanges. Swiss Unemployment and UK Producer Prices are on tap in European hours, but traders are likely to look past these releases to the US Non Farm payrolls report due late into the session.

Key Overnight Developments

• Reserve Bank of Australia Slashes Economic Growth, Inflation Forecasts
• Japan’s Leading Index Sinks to Lowest in Nearly a Decade
• Euro, British Pound Decline Against US Dollar Despite Rising Stock Markets

Critical Levels



The Euro trended gently lower against the US Dollar in overnight trading, reaching as low as 1.2761. The British Pound followed suit, testing below the 1.46 mark. The greenback added as much as 0.2% in Asian hours despite a strong rebound on Asian stock exchanges. Stock markets and the Dollar have moved in opposite directions in recent months with USD seen as one of the top safe-haven plays amid bouts of risk aversion. Overall technical positioning continues to favor extended EURUSD and GBPUSD downside in the weeks to come.

...more...

US NFPs Expected to Fall by 540,000 - How Will It Impact the US Dollar?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_NFPs_Expected_to_Fall_1233865846812.html

The US dollar will encounter one of its most market-moving pieces of data on Friday: non-farm payrolls (NFPs). The US dollar index has been consolidating below its January highs, and with job losses anticipated to have reached 540,000 in January, the news could determine whether or not the currency will reverse or break higher.

What is the Market Expecting for January Non-Farm Payrolls?



1. The ADP private payrolls gauge reported its 12th straight drop in net payrolls, amounting to 522,000
2. Initial jobless claims hit a fresh 26-year high, while continuing claims have steadily risen to all-time highs of 4.788 million.
3. Challenger Job Cuts surged for the 11th consecutive month at a rate of 222.4% in January from a year ago.
4. ISM Manufacturing employment gauge continued to hold near its 26-year lows.
5. ISM Non-Manufacturing index shows employment conditions near worst levels since at least 1997.
6. Conference Board’s consumer sentiment survey hit the lowest levels since recordkeeping began in 1967.

Based on both a Bloomberg News poll of economists and a variety of leading indicators, Friday’s release of US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) is likely to show job losses for the thirteenth straight month in January. At the time of writing, Bloomberg News was calling for NFPs to plunge by 540,000, leaving 2009 to start as 2008 left off: negative. Looking at the range of estimates, economists are anticipating that NFPs could fall anywhere between 400,000 and 750,000, but based on leading indicators like Challenger job cuts and the ISM employment indices, we think there’s potential for payrolls to fall by 450,000 - 550,000 in January. Meanwhile, something that is starting to garner even more attention is the unemployment rate, which is projected to hit 7.5 percent, the highest since September 1992.

The steady accumulation of job losses does not bode well for economic growth going forward, as falling incomes will only contribute to further contractions in personal spending. Since the start of the US recession in December 2007, per the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the unemployment rate has climbed from 4.9 percent up to 7.2 percent in December 2008 while personal consumption has slowed from 1 percent in Q4 2007 down to -3.5 percent in Q4 2008.

...more...

lemme see.... who what fucking up the country in 1992????? Oh, that's right!!! It was POS's daddy!

Why do the Bushes hate Americans?

[UpInArms]

27. When sugar dust ignites: questions shadow Ga blast - more evidence of BUSH malfeasance

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090206/ap_on_bi_ge/refinery_blast_year_later

SAVANNAH, Ga. – A year after he escaped badly burned from a huge blast at the nation's second-largest sugar refinery, Jamie Butler still needs physical therapy once a day to stretch the skin grafts on his arms, hands and legs.

He still takes painkillers. And he needs steroid injections to reduce scarring on his face, now covered by a black mask that applies healing pressure to the skin.

The 26-year-old cannot forget what happened at the Imperial Sugar refinery on Feb. 7, 2008. And he wonders why his older brother, who worked beside him filling bags of sugar, had to die when fine sugar dust exploded.

"I've been thinking about my brother all the time," said Butler, who was burned over almost half his body. "I know it could've been prevented."

Despite the outcry after the blast, which killed 14 people and injured 40 others, the U.S. still lacks federal regulations requiring industrial plants to prevent the buildup of fine dust particles that can form explosive clouds in confined areas.

<snip>

In 2006, the U.S. Chemical Safety Board, which investigates industrial accidents, called on OSHA to close that gap by adopting a new combustible dust regulation. Over the past three decades, the board says, about 300 dust explosions have killed more than 120 workers nationwide.

OSHA opposed a new industrial dust standard following the Georgia explosion. The agency argued existing regulations on plant cleanliness and maintenance — which it used to cite Imperial Sugar — have been sufficient.

Members of Congress tried to force OSHA to adopt a new standard by law last year after the Imperial Sugar blast. A bill passed the House but stalled in the Senate amid a promised presidential veto.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. Was SECer Now Running Madoff Case Involved in Failed Earlier Inquiry?

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/02/was_secer_now_running_madoff_case_involved_in_fa.php

The SEC is deep in the midst of beating itself up over its failure over many years to catch Bernard Madoff's alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme. Just yesterday, agency chair Mary Schapiro told Congress in a letter that "there needs to be a full accounting, both of Mr. Madoff's activities and why we did not detect the fraud, which we regret."

But is it in danger of making the same mistakes the second time around as the first?

The SEC's civil case against Madoff, hurriedly filed in December 2008 after Madoff allegedly confessed to his lawyer, is being conducted out of the agency's New York regional office, where Madoff's business was based. But it was the New York office that conducted the 2006 inquiry into Madoff that famously came up dry. That inquiry, which found only a few technical violations and recommended that Madoff register as an investment adviser, is now itself one focus of the investigation by the SEC's inspector general into how the agency failed to catch Madoff.

According to one former SEC enforcement veteran, in other cases where the agency opened a second investigation after a regional office was found to have slipped up the first time around, the second probe has sometimes been run out of the Washington headquarters, to ensure that it retains public confidence. That wasn't done here.

Asked about the matter by TPMmuckraker, an SEC spokesman declined to comment.

But there may be even less distance between the two Madoff investigations.

The current case is being led by Andrew Calamari, the Associate Regional Director for the New York office, who last month publicly called the Madoff case "a stunning fraud that appears to be of epic proportions." Calamari's name is listed prominently on the agency's civil complaint.

But Calamari appears tied to the ill-fated 2006 effort. Doria Bachenheimer, an Assistant Regional Director in the New York office "reviewed and approved" the decision to close that inquiry, according to a "Case Closing Recommendation" document obtained by the Wall Street Journal.

...more...

[UpInArms]

38. Did middleman know about Madoff losses beforehand?

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE51502I20090206

BOSTON (Reuters) - When federal investigators first examined whether Bernard Madoff ran a Ponzi scheme 17 years ago, they focused on Frank Avellino, an accountant who had delivered investors to Madoff since the 1960s.

Court documents filed in recent weeks in the wealthy Massachusetts island of Nantucket suggest Avellino continued to channel money to Madoff and may have known crucial information about the losses a week before the revelation of Madoff's suspected $50 billion Ponzi scheme shocked world financial markets.

Nevena Ivanova, a Bulgarian who cleaned Avellino's summer home in Nantucket, said in court papers filed in Nantucket District Court on December 29 that she invested her family's $200,000 savings with him and was told the money was gone on December 1 -- 10 days before Madoff's arrest.

"It's an indicator that he may have known what the Madoff scheme was all about," said Jay Gould, a former investment- management attorney at the Securities and Exchange Commission who heads the hedge-fund practice at Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw and Pittman LLP.

"Did Madoff tell him 'look, your money is gone. You're not going to get it back.' Is that why he knew? Or is it that he didn't know and he wasn't a participant, but he took money from these other people and didn't intend to give it back. It's hard to say."

Avellino's lawyer did not return calls. Two other investors have filed a lawsuit against Avellino in Nantucket seeking to recover more than $1 million lost to Madoff. But legal experts say Ivanova's case is unique in suggesting a Madoff middleman may have known of the losses before Madoff's arrest.

...more...

[UpInArms]

33. Gold rises for third day on jobless expectations

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Gold-rises-third-day-jobless/story.aspx?guid=%7B5153D1A1%2D519F%2D444D%2DA121%2DBD5BACB57DDC%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose Friday for a third session as expectations that U.S. unemployment has climbed to a 16-year high increased safe-haven buying. Gold for February delivery rose $4.90, or 0.5%, to $918.50 an ounce in early North America trading. The unemployment rate in the U.S. may have rose in January to 7.5%, the highest since 1992, economists said.

[UpInArms]

35. News Corp posts steep loss on writedown (FAUX sucks up $6.41 billion Q2 loss)

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE51356420090206?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Rupert Murdoch's News Corp posted its biggest ever quarterly net loss, after taking an $8.4 billion writedown for the value of its Dow Jones acquisition, broadcasting licenses and other assets.

Excluding the charge, the results missed Wall Street forecasts as the recession exacerbated the fall in newspaper advertising sales and hit the company's other properties.

News Corp shares fell 6.3 percent to $6.50 in after-hours trading and have shed about 65 percent of their value in the past 12 months.

"It is the worst global economic crisis since News Corp was formed 50 years ago," Murdoch, chairman and chief executive, said on a conference call with analysts.

He said it was impossible to be completely prepared for such a harsh economic downturn, but News Corp is cutting costs and staff where appropriate, as it expects advertising-supported businesses to weaken more.

Its Fox businesses have cut about 800 jobs, while its Wall Street Journal, which has seen ad revenue fall 20 percent, said it had eliminated 25 journalist jobs. The company also has slashed $100 million in costs at Dow Jones, though it said there were no plans for layoffs at Dow Jones Newswires.

The latest media company to report gloomy results as advertisers slash their budgets in the weak economy, News Corp said its net loss was $6.41 billion, or $2.45 a share, for the fiscal second quarter ended December 31. That compared with a profit of $832 million, or 27 cents a share, a year earlier.

...more...



mayhaps they could get rid of the fake "journalists" - Rove, O'liely, inSanity et al?

[Dr.Phool]

48. They'll change their name to Faux Bank to get a bailout.

Rupert Trust.

[DemReadingDU]

42. Even Reagan raised taxes

some snippets I found on the Internet


2/26/08 Even Reagan raised taxes
Past governors boosted rates drastically during recessions; Schwarzenegger should do the same.
Reagan ended up approving a $1-billion tax increase on a $6-billion annual budget, which was, proportionately, the biggest tax increase in state history.
more...
http://articles.latimes.com/2008/feb/26/opinion/oe-stall26


2/5/09 Rachel Maddow
Reagan revolution dead?Feb. 5: GOP in Exile: Republicans seem to be pushing the Reagan myth of fiscal conservatism and tax cuts to fight the stimulus package. Why does the idea that tax cuts are the solution to everything still exist? Rachel Maddow is joined by Will Bunch, author of “Tear Down this Myth.”
http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-US&brand=msnbc&vid=a0db652e-bd3c-4d06-b0a5-51885243256e


2/4/09 Tear Down This Myth: How Reagan's Legacy Haunts Our Future By Will Bunch
The Great Communicator still speaks from the Great Beyond. But he leaves out some very important details about his time in office.

Editor's Note: The following is an excerpt from Tear Down This Myth, by Will Bunch. Copyright © 2009 by Will Bunch. Reprinted by permission of Free Press, a Division of Simon and Schuster, Inc.

His epic $1 billion California tax increase in 1967, the largest of its kind at that time,

more...
http://www.alternet.org/mediaculture/124855/tear_down_this_myth:_how_reagan's_legacy_haunts_our_future/
http://www.alternet.org/mediaculture/124855/tear_down_this_myth:_how_reagan's_legacy_haunts_our_future/?page=entire

[CatholicEdHead]

54. That is not an option in the current GOP at all

it is work to cut it all if possible, if not all, then as much as possible. :crazy:

[UpInArms]

44. 9:47 EST stock markets jump up and run around like a chicken with its head cut off

Dow 8,187.80 124.73 (1.55%)
Nasdaq 1,571.58 25.34 (1.64%)
S&P 500 858.50 12.65 (1.50%)
10-Yr Bond 2.949% 0.049

NYSE Volume 632,084,812.5
Nasdaq Volume 168,959,906.25

09:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80. The tone during premarket trading has firmed a bit since the release of the January jobs report, which reflected continued weakness in the labor market. The data was expected to be bad, though, given the ongoing job cuts announced by the private sector. With that hurdle cleared, market participants can now fully focus on the government's efforts to help stimulate the financial system and the broader economy. The U.S. Senate continues to haggle over details for the next economic stimulus plan, which could be announced by this weekend. Meanwhile, a plan to help banks is expected to be announced Monday. There haven't been any major earnings announcements since the prior session's close. The results that have been released are generally mixed.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50. U.S. stock futures are pointing toward a flat-to-positive start in the wake of more glum economic data. Bank stocks are providing support to the early morning bias. Their strength comes as a follow through from the prior session's rally. Shares of Bank of America (BAC) are up almost 10% to $5.32 per share in premarket trading. Wells Fargo (WFC) is up almost 4% to $16.90 per share ahead of the opening bell. Financial stocks are also helping many major foreign indices. France's CAC is up 1.0% as BNP Paribas provides leadership. Total (TOT) is also trading with leadership after its shares were upgraded to Buy from Hold by analysts at Citigroup. Britain's FTSE is up 1.1%. HSBC (HSB) is the primary leader there. Integrated oil outfit BP (BP) and metal mining company Rio Tinto (RTP) are also showing strength. Germany's DAX is up 1.4%, but its support is coming from engineering giant Siemens (SI). Farther to the east, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 1.1% higher. Japan's Nikkei gained 1.6%. Exporters were strong. Honda Motor (HMC) gained, though Toyota (TM) said it expects its annual loss to be triple its original estimate. Toyota also had its credit rating downgraded one notch by Moody's and S&P. Shares of Toyota still finished higher. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 3.6% higher. Financial stocks surged with help from ICBC and China Life (LFC). In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 4.0% higher.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50. Stock futures have ticked modestly higher. Nonfarm payrolls fell 598,000 in January. A loss of 540,000 jobs was expected. Manufacturing payrolls fell 207,000, which is more than the drop of 145,000 that was widely expected. December nonfarm payrolls were downwardly revised to reflect a drop of 577,000. December manufacturing payrolls were downwardly revised to reflect a loss of 162,000. Unemployment now stands at 7.6%, up from 7.2%. The consensus forecast pegged unemployment at 7.5% for January. Average hourly earnings during January were up 0.3% month-over-month, and up 3.9% year-over-year. Average hourly earnings were expected to increase 0.2% month-over-month, and 3.6% year-over-year. The prior readings were both upwardly revised to reflect an increase of 0.4% and 4.0%, respectively. Weekly work hours averaged 33.3 during January. That was in-line with the consensus.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50. There is a relatively subdued mood ahead of the government's January jobs report, which is due at the bottom of the hour. Stock futures currently point to a flat start. The Wall Street Journal is trying to lend some insight into the development of the government-led financial rescue plan; capital injections and expansion of existing credit and asset purchase facilities are likely. The article indicated a "bad bank" plan to purchase toxic assets appears less central to the plan. Treasury Secretary Geithner is expected to detail the plan Monday. Meanwhile, the Senate continues to haggle with the details of the latest economic stimulus plan. Corporate headlines are relatively light this morning. Biogen Idec (BIIB) reported adjusted earnings of $0.93 per share for its fourth quarter. Earnings were in-line with analysts' consensus estimate. The company expects earnings for fiscal 2009 to be above $4.00 per share, which exceeds the current consensus forecast of $3.99 per share. New York Times reports Toyota Motor (TM) expects to incur a full-year operating loss that is triple the size initially expected. Meanwhile, credit rating agency Moody's cut its grade for Toyota to Aa1, down one notch from Aaa. The downgrade is the first Moody's has issued for Toyota since 1998, according to Reuters. According to CNBC, analysts at JPMorgan believe General Electric (GE) cannot sustain its triple-A credit rating and will be forced to cut its dividend. Analysts have been making similar claims for some time, but the company has repeatedly vowed to sustain both its credit rating and its dividend.

[antigop]

46. Obama to name economic panel (check out this cast of characters)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123391937985456623.html

Making good on a promise to name a diverse outside economic advisory panel, President Barack Obama Friday will appoint a slate of business, economic and labor leaders – from conservative economist Martin Feldstein to AFL-CIO secretary-treasurer Richard Trumka – to help guide him on the path out of recession.

The President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, chaired by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, will be modeled after the existing Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board to bring in voices from outside government to help shape policy. Obama aides say the board will focus on short-term measures to stimulate the economy as well as longer-term efforts to restructure the regulatory apparatus overseeing financial markets. Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist and close campaign aide, will be its executive director.

Some of the panel's members have close Republican ties, such as Mr. Feldstein, a Reagan White House economist, and William H. Donaldson, a former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission appointed by President George W. Bush. Others have close political ties to the president, including Penny Pritzker, an heir to the Hyatt hotel fortune, and Robert Wolf, chairman of chief executive of UBS Group Americas. The group also includes Roger W. Ferguson Jr., a former Federal Reserve vice chairman, not chief executive of TIAA-CREF, Silicon Valley venture capitalist John Doerr, and Jeffrey R. Immelt, chief executive of General Electric.

Mr. Obama will make the announcement this morning with Mr. Volcker.
A full list of the advisory board:

William H. Donaldson, Chairman, SEC

Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., President & CEO, TIAA-CREF

Robert Wolf, Chairman & CEO, UBS Group Americas

David F. Swensen, CIO, Yale University

Mark T. Gallogly, Founder & Managing Partner, Centerbridge Partners L.P.

Penny Pritzker, Chairman & Founder, Pritzker Realty Group

John Doerr, Partner, Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers

Jim Owens, Chairman and CEO, Caterpillar Inc.

Monica C. Lozano, Publisher & Chief Executive Officer, La Opinion

Charles E. Phillips, Jr., President, Oracle Corporation

Anna Burger, Secretary-Treasurer, SEIU

Richard L. Trumka, Secretary-Treasurer, AFL-CIO

Laura D'Andrea Tyson, Dean, Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley

Martin Feldstein, George F. Baker Professor of Economics, Harvard University

Jeffrey R. Immelt, CEO, GE

[Tansy_Gold]

67. one word

:puke:

[antigop]

47. In case you haven't read about Wall Street CEOs, investment bankers, and hookers....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3726407

[antigop]

49. Krugman: On the Edge

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/opinion/06krugman.html

A not-so-funny thing happened on the way to economic recovery. Over the last two weeks, what should have been a deadly serious debate about how to save an economy in desperate straits turned, instead, into hackneyed political theater, with Republicans spouting all the old clichés about wasteful government spending and the wonders of tax cuts.

It’s as if the dismal economic failure of the last eight years never happened — yet Democrats have, incredibly, been on the defensive. Even if a major stimulus bill does pass the Senate, there’s a real risk that important parts of the original plan, especially aid to state and local governments, will have been emasculated.

Somehow, Washington has lost any sense of what’s at stake — of the reality that we may well be falling into an economic abyss, and that if we do, it will be very hard to get out again.

It’s hard to exaggerate how much economic trouble we’re in. The crisis began with housing, but the implosion of the Bush-era housing bubble has set economic dominoes falling not just in the United States, but around the world.

[antigop]

52. Oh, crap! State Street adds $610 million to stable value

http://www.pionline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090126/PRINTSUB/901239934/1031/TOC

State Street Corp., Boston, voluntarily contributed $160 million in January 2008 and an additional $450 million in the fourth quarter to stable value accounts to bring the accounts back to market level, according to an 8-K filed by the bank on Jan. 16.

The accounts are managed by subsidiary State Street Global Advisors.

Further, fixed-income liquidity and pricing issues in 2008 so negatively affected the market value of SSgA’s stable value accounts that “third-party guarantors considered terminating their financial guarantees,” leading SSgA to purchase about $2.5 billion of risky securities from the accounts, according to the 8-K.

[Demeter]

63. Why the Dismay, UIA?

they are doing what every responsible European bank is doing--making whole the people they bilked.

[Dr.Phool]

57. How Theresa Hatt Caused The Financial Crisis

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/02/how_theresa_hatt_caused_the_financial_crisis.php


How Theresa Hatt Caused The Financial Crisis
By Zachary Roth - February 6, 2009, 11:23AM

Last month, Theresa Hatt died at 52, after a brief struggle with cancer.

Hatt, who lived in Portland, Maine, and worked for the city of Scarborough, had had several credit cards in her name. So, shortly after her death, Hatt's son, Paul Kelleher, began the sad task of calling his mother's creditors, to inform them of her passing.

The calls were uneventful, if depressing, until Kelleher got to Bank of America. Here is how he says his conversation with a representative of the company's estates unit went:

Paul Kelleher: Yes, I'm calling to inform you that my mom died on the 24th of January.

Bank of America Estates representative: I'm sorry. Oh, it looks like she never even missed a payment. That's too bad. Well, how are you planning to take care of her balance?

PK: I'm not going to. She has no estate to speak of, but you should feel free to just go through the standard probate procedure. I'm certainly not legally obligated to pay for her.

BOA: You mean you're not going to help her out?

PK: I wouldn't be helping her out -- she's dead. I'd be helping you out.

BOA: Oh, that's really not the way to look at it. I know that if it were my mother, I'd pay it. That's why we're in the banking crisis we're in: banks having to write off defaulted loans.

"I lost it there," Kelleher, a mild-mannered 30-year-old who lives in Brookline, Mass., where he works remotely for a Washington DC-based non-profit, told TPMMuckraker. When pressed, he said, the estates rep backed off that last claim, but only a little, continuing to suggest that cases like his mothers had played a role in the financial crisis.

The rep's apparent intention, as Kelleher described it, was to mislead him into believing that he was obligated -- at first legally, then, failing that, morally -- to cover his mother's debt (which, in any case, was not large: she had had a $1000 limit on her card). Of course, Kelleher was sophisticated enough to know that's not true. But how many other less savvy callers in similar situations, he wondered, might respond to the rep's breezy "how are you planning to take care of her balance?," with a confused "I guess I'll mail in a check"?

(more)