Housing Starts at Another Record Low

[RedEarth]

Source: CalculatedRisk

Total housing starts were at 464 thousand (SAAR) in January, by far the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959.

Single-family starts were at 347 thousand in January; also the lowest level ever recorded (since 1959).

Single-family permits were at 335 thousand in January, suggesting single family starts may fall further next month - although total permits were greater than starts, suggesting total starts might increase next month.





Read more: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/housing-starts-at-another-record-low.html

[n2doc]

1. Frankly, in these times, I can't see why anybody is building houses.

Plenty of inventory, falling prices, hard to get loans, why compound the problem by building more. I know building employs people, but right now there is no economic reason to build other than that. Another reason for Government stimulus, get those workers building other things.

[snappyturtle]

5. My husband is a home builder. At 56 years of age he's not trained

to build highways and bridges. You won't get him building "other" things. Thankfully, he has a good lick right now for the next year and a half or so.

I shouldn't come down so hard on you but I've tired of being told home builders built too many homes. I guess we built too many shopping centers,etc. too. The frenzy didn't start with the home builders although I do have a problem with builders with too many spec houses but they're paying the price which is more than I can say for the sectors that brought us the economic mess.

[n2doc]

7. It wasn't his fault, but he is paying the price

Just like the Auto workers. I do think there is hope in the Stimulus bill- Things like buildings need to be put up as well. I don't know if your Husband's skillset translates into bigger buildings, hopefully it does. If he can survive the next 18 months, hopefully we will be back in recovery. Unless the population of this country goes down, eventually people will need new houses.

[snappyturtle]

17. He has work that should last quite a while and we're lucky we're in TX

because there's plenty of money here that is doing just fine! His present job is for a man he's worked for in the past and he doesn't need loan financing, which we're very thankful for.

[XemaSab]

11. The maintenance backlog in the national parks and forests is huge

We need another WPA...

Your husband isn't rained to build highways and bridges, but how about bathrooms? Visitor centers? Lodges? Kiosks? :shrug:

[snappyturtle]

16. Thank you for your concern. He has a job, matter-of-fact one that

should see us through for a year and a half. BUT, if all of this fell through he could do the above....that's just a lot to think about from my point of view.

[goforit]

12. Over built and overpriced for too many years. Yes there are too many strips.

I would rather see builders focus on fixing up older homes and cities rather than
building "new" causing a limitless sprawl of BURBs. Building new in cities is OK.
The environment is #1 today.
Builders who disrespect the environment shoulded be banned.

I'm happy you're husband has work for 1 1/2 years, But his industry needs to rethink through the issues at hand as well.

[snappyturtle]

18. Your post makes me want to scream but it's not your fault; you don't know my husband.

He's been building green long before it became fashionable....always very energy efficient homes. We live in ranch country....ranches don't grow in cities. BTW, publications we get from the industry are VERY cognizant of the environment. It's the populace we are always having to convince. As I said in another reply, fixing up older homes is not generally the answer....it is quite expensive. But tearing down, recycling and building new, smaller,green, works. My husband tries to build homes that will out live their normal life span.

[WriteDown]

32. You nailed it...

I am in a home in Dallas that would probably cost the price I bought it for to make it energy efficient. It was built in 43 and is an unbelievable house, but leaks like a sieve. It would probably be cheaper to actually have it bulldozed and build a new one.

[snappyturtle]

36. Unfortunately, that is probably true. nt

[marksmithfield]

21. Thank You

You put it so well. I'm 54 and been building for 25yrs. How do you build "other" things? Without these few remodels I've picked up in the past year I would be in deep doo doo.

[snappyturtle]

23. You're certainly welcome. Is the government going to supply the tools?

I think of all that building entails and it's mind-boggling!people just don't understand. Building different things could mean a lot of re-education and money for tools! It's not just simple...unfortunately, as you well know.

We've been living, if you want to call it that, on small jobs until the latest one popped up in December. It wasn't ONE day too soon. My husband has built for thirty years in this area EXCEPT for the five years he moved up north where we met. He always did well, until he lost a boat load with the Silverado debacle.

I'm glad he has such a good reputation here and now that people know he's back--took two years to get our place, old and small, liveable, the acreage straightened up and a building erected for storage and cabinet building. FINALLY, we get everything ready and although we knew a turn down was coming, we didn't think it would be this bad. But he has enough work to hire his son and as of last week we hired another man who had been out of work. Subs are hurting too. I just pray everything holds! Good luck to you!

[marksmithfield]

28. It took a while to re-find this topic

But I hope it holds up for you too snappyturtle. I also have been building green for years. Some of the first in Tucson. Custom only so no large developments and land rape. Always had a back log of clients till last year. I was so broke I answered an ad in craiglist for someone to cut some bottles for gas money, and it turned into an extensive remodel.

[snappyturtle]

29. Yeah....you sound like my husband. Custom only....no large developments.

I'm sure you're long off to work as I write this but I have hope we'll all have enough to get through this time. I've got to get something done today on my work to help out. I had a production art company of one, ha!, with an agent in CA. I did quite well for twenty some years until the Chinese got into my market. I could not compete with them and frankly, got tired of supplying them with 'ideas'! I have been contacted by a local, contemporary art gallery to exhibit and I am currently frozen. I have a lot riding on doing the 'right' stuff so that it sells so I can continue exhibiting. Today feels like a fresh start so I'm off! Gotta strike while the iron is hot, so to speak.

[marksmithfield]

33. Home today, my choice

So the main question is: do projects at your house sit forever? I can build a mansion in the time it takes to finish re-modeling a bathroom around here... Lucky for me my wife has a sense of humor! There is always something to do in the shop instead..LOL

Production art? Imitation is not flattery in your case. Hopefully people will learn every dollar leaving this country is another job gone.

Good luck to you and yours. I believe we will see a rise in remodel soon, more people fixing up than buying new. At least it will keep people like your husband and I going till things pick up again. This won't be forever, just seems like it.

[snappyturtle]

35. Projects? OMG.....I am losing my sense of humor about that subject

except to say that we just don't have much extra $$ or time to do the projects. This property had an old hill country cottage, I mean cottage...small, on it. It has now been leveled, re-wired, re-plumbed, some new windows (more needed), some insulation and as of last weekend a heat pump system. Yes! good-bye space heater and wall air conditioner! So nice to filter out the dust....we're in a drought here. We're eventually going to add on a master bedroom and bath and a common area off the kitchen and when we get really rich (ha!) a garage but that's got to come after a water collection system in case we ever get more rain and a hydroponic greenhouse. But, the cottage is coming along thanks to my dear husband's generous giving up of spare time. It is light years from the run down condition we found this place in.

My husband is doing a re-model complete with new operating systems of a couple's inherited home (wife's family's homestead) where they'll eventually retire. After that he will go to their present home over looking the Guadalupe River to build an enclosed party veranda with kitchen, to re-model an old barn into office and guest bedroom apartment and to build a garage for their antique car collection. The green part should be interesting! So it's great work and these people are wonderful to work for and they value my husband's past work for them. It's been a journey but an adventure at the same time.

And, now I really have to go...work! I had to do some more replying here. I hate seeing builders being blamed for EVERYTHING wrong with the housing market.

[Lost in CT]

2. Well in many places in the country the overstock of homes is quite high.

I would think housing starts for various factors will be depressed for quite a few years to come.

[earthside]

3. Actually Good News

Until the excessive inventory of houses is finally worked down, this bubble will not have completely deflated.

Besides, as Jim Kunstler points out, this suburban sprawl lifestyle is what has been so destructive of our quality of life for decades now.

Of course, I'm empathetic to U.S. citizen carpenters, framers, dry wallers, plumbers, electricians, etc. I hope that the 'stimulus package' helps them find other means of a livelihood.

[defendandprotect]

13. Agree . . . and peak oil/peak gas may be able to bring that to an end . . .???

[jazzjunkysue]

22. I'd like to see a federal moritorium on all building permits for a year or two.

residential or commercial.

Let's inhabit what we have. All of florida is for sale.

[cliss]

24. I agree.

As long as builders keep building, the price of real estate will keep going

down....down....down.

I've read that we have in the U.S. fully 25% of unneeded real estate. Meaning, we have TOO many homes already.
And that includes Texas :smoke:

[snappyturtle]

34. I don't think you understand.

Blame the builders and not blame the financial sectors that saw housing as the new bubble and exploited it to everyone's detriment??????????

What I think we have TOO many of is people with no place to live. If we could figure out a way to get these people into the vacancies and stabilize the communities it would be a win-win-in for those living in the houses and their neighbors and their communities(taxes).

Unneeded? That assumes builders just kept building, building and building with no buyers in mind? Builders don't do that. The small ones can't afford to and the mega-builders spend big money to determine the market. The latter is riskier but they didn't set out to glut the market! Cutting off their noses to spite their faces? We may nationally have 25%(link?)of 'unneeded' real estate,I assume existing housing and new homes combined, but those homes didn't just magically appear on the market for sale. What we need is JOBS! to keep people in their homes and the righting of the loan industry.

You say as builders keep building the price of real estate will go down. It's not going to go down IF priced properly. I heard a realtor from TX on Washington Journal this morning say they are selling and getting mortgages BECAUSE Texas didn't over-inflate prices. My area has people moving in here, not only retirees from the north but people who want out of CA. Houses are cheaper to build here. Also Texas has no state income tax which attracts many.

I have lived in Texas for 2 and a half years. Previously I spent a little over another year here and I am truly amazed by the size and diversity of the state. So even within a state, housing needs differ from area to area.

[snappyturtle]

31. I wish you would take a few minutes to think about the ramifications

of what you've said. Building permits are granted locally. I don't think towns, villages and cities across the country would allow the feds to tell them not to allow permits. To do so will cut out more than just the builders who seem to be taking the brunt of the blame here. From what I have gathered reading building publications is that the mega-builders who went crazy speculating won't be asking for any more permits soon.

There are people who have money who need no financing and therefore can well afford to build....thank God. They'll help keep many employed who actually do the building and also those who do the supplying. I think when the floor adjusts in housing the glut of homes will be re-absorbed at realistic prices and I'm sure there are people who will become rental moguls....unfortunately...but.....imho.

What's good for one area doesn't mean it's good nationwide.

[earthboundmisfit]

4. I have a really stupid question.

Are we supposed to just keep building new houses, office buildings, shopping centers, apartments/condos, etc. TILL THERE'S NO MORE LAND LEFT? Perhaps I'm overly simplistic - but even when the economy was "strong" (albeit artificially), I wondered about this endless development - is it ever "enough"? When do we start remodeling/fixing what's already there instead of NEW development?

edit: cain't spel

[snappyturtle]

6. Remodeling/fixing can be lots more expensive than building new

and green from the foundation up. I'm for tearing down, recycling useable materials and building new, smaller homes.

I, too, have wondered if it's ever 'enough' but we can't all live in the urban centers. As the population grows, we have to expand, don't we? Then, with people living 'out' do we insist they shop in the urban centers? Seems to me that would be counter productive.

[Robb]

8. You've told the story of Denver right there.

We've seen new developments get built, followed by the commercial needed to "support" them (read: a new mall), followed by more residential on the other side of the mall, followed by a new mall, rinse, lather, repeat.

Geographically, there's nothing to stop us doing this all the way into Kansas. Except, of course, that at some point (e.g. right now) you run out of people with money to buy the houses.

[defendandprotect]

14. Neither can we afford any more "population growth" . . . !!!

We need to go backwards on that if the planet and humanity are to survive!

PLUS peak oil/peak gas is going to bring an end to suburbia --

and, I would guess, industry as we know it now.

Everything has to return to local buying, local growing of food, local errands.

[snappyturtle]

20. What do you want us to do about population growth? Should I shoot my kids?

I do buy local...I certainly do not drive 65 miles to San Antonio or 125 to Austin to shop. We buy local produce, have a garden and share our abundant chicken egg 'crop'. One thing I wish for is efficient mass transit. The cost of living today will reduce the population. imho

[Zhade]

25. Yes, the poster clearly wants you to shoot your kids.

What a ridiculous response.

Do you spawn litters to get rich like octomom? If not, why are you assuming the poster even CARES how many kids you have?

[defendandprotect]

26. Obviously, population control means "shoot your kids" . . . !!!

Maybe you've never heard of limiting population growth before as a national

and international concern/interest . . . as in birth control?

Additionally, contrary to your reaction, I'm not trying to hold you PERSONALLY

responsible for the planet's population growth--!!

Many of our local stores sell asparagus from Peru, garlic from Argentina, food from

Mexico and Chile, etal. That's what I'm talking about.

IMO, we don't have quality mass transportation nor efficient mass transportation

because too many of our elected officials are owned by the oil industry.

[snappyturtle]

30. Why didn't you define population control in the first place? I was

being facetious....! I've heard of population control; like in China? Large families are not commonplace as they were when we were still an agriculture society. I really don't have a problem with our re-producing here in the U.S.

Thanks for defining buying locally. When I say buy locally I mean buying locally produced products.

I think we don't have mass transportation because too many people are in love with their cars and like traveling solo. Fortunately some have seen the light when gas prices spiked.

[LeftinOH]

9. There are a lot of people in this country who would never buy a "used" house..

Sure, sometimes people are left with little choice (depending on the area), but I'll take my "used" house in an established neighborhood (with sidewalks!) over anything in a new development.

[groundloop]

10. Our area is waaaay overbuilt

A national survey listed the metro Atlanta area as the 3rd 'emptiest' in the country. That is, the 3rd most vacant houses and apartments. For several years now builders and developers have been slapping up new subdivisions all over the country side, full of crackerbox spec houses and McMansions. I'm praying that once things pick back up people will use a little more intelligence, remodel existing housing, or at least tear down, recycle as much as possible, and build on the existing lot instead of clear cutting acres and acres to put in new subdivisions.

I feel for the people who are out of work now, my son is an HVAC guy and he's real slow now (somewhat saved by the fact that he quit concentrating on housing a few years ago and went more towards commercial work). But quite a few of the developers and builders in our area exhibited plenty of greed and poor planning to get us to where we are now.

[defendandprotect]

15. And "new" is also dismissive of what the actual costs are ---

the immediate yardstick of a dollar bill suggests a greed value --

the value of the planet and humanity -- ending pollution -- dealing with

Global Warming suggest we need a quite different yardstick!

[Vinca]

19. Actually, that's a good thing right now.

The market needs to absorb the existing homes.

[Zhade]

27. I'd buy one, except 1) bad credit and 2) no help for a down payment in the stimbill.

It's impossible -- IMPOSSIBLE -- for me to save up enough to buy a home here in L.A.

With the cost of living, I'd have enough when I'm, oh, ninety.

Meanwhile, as a renter, no relief for me.

Which is bullshit.