STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday February 23

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday February 23, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 1

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 20, 2009

Dow... 7,365.67 -100.28 (-1.36%)
Nasdaq... 1,441.23 -1.59 (-0.11%)
S&P 500... 770.05 -8.89 (-1.14%)
Gold future... 1,002.20 +25.70 (+2.56%)
30-Year Bond 3.57% -0.12 (-3.34%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.77% -0.09 (-2.98%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp with Tim W. Wood

Go ahead and read if you really, really want to waste your time.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

5. Tim-may still not willing to admit the "system" is/has been in chaos yet, huh. His

damn charts make about as much sense as reading endtrails and tossed bones these days - good medicine for a time long ago, today-not so much.

[ozymandius]

11. I wonder when he upgraded his car to one that does not require a hand crank.

The abacus he uses is a little disturbing too.

[54anickel]

23. Heh-heh, car?

[specimenfred1984]

49. Tim Wood is a coward, a "Good German" too afraid to learn anything

so he lies for a living and I would be honored to say it to his face. That's the type of courage that it takes to change things in America, to be willing to personally tell the sellout off. I won't bother emailing the douchebag or paying any attention to him ever again though, technical analysts like him are common mathematician frauds in our system of corruption.

[Dr.Phool]

2. Good morning. Sleep-in today?

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Sleep in? Yes, somewhat. I set my alarm a little later since Mrs. ozymandius and I were tending to our sick child around 2am. He's much better now. Somehow, I'll manage to muddle through teaching my classes today.

[Dr.Phool]

8. I hope the kid gets better.

I'm stuck is S.C. this morning. Gotta get my dad out of the hospital this morning. Hopefully, I can get him relocated to a retirement community in Clearwater, and stop making this trip.

It's Monday. We have Tim Wood, a hangover, and freezing in the middle of nowhere. What more could I ask for?

[ozymandius]

9. Thanks. Good luck with your difficult tasks.

I offer my thanks to your father's neighbor who has not yet discovered how to encrypt his network. :)

[Roland99]

20. Here's to better health and better times to ya both

I'm at the best I've felt in over a week. Even left the house for a few hours yesterday. Job hunt is still fruitless but opportunities still exist here and there. Some phone calls to make today.

[ozymandius]

22. Good luck to you Roland.

I think it's time to pester the Admins again about the job opportunities forum. I see some posts in my local Georgia forum. I imagine it would be nice to have all this information in one place.

[Demeter]

24. I Wonder If This Isn't One of Those Cases

where asking forgiveness after the fact is better than begging permission?

[AnneD]

35. I have pestered them twice I think......

I think the will isn't there for them. Too bad because this has been brought up on other threads. I think the time is right.

I've thought of nesting it in the SWT but we get so long sometimes. Maybe if we have someone to start it and we all keep it up-just like we do here. I think it could be a daily feature too.

Just my 2 cents.

[Warpy]

52. Oh, gawd, been there and done that

The good news is that Florida is probably the best state in the country for assisted living and nursing home regulation. In addition, home care people have to be bonded and that weeds out a lot of rotten apples.

You'll still have to make unannounced visits from time to time, but the chances for good treatment are better there than most places.

Here in the high desert we have Monday morning, Tim Woods, and clouds that steadfastly refuse to release a drop of moisture. Fire season this year is going to be very bad.

[Demeter]

10. Good Morning, Guys!

Hope the wee one is on the mend, Ozy.

Well, nothing dramatic happened on the weekend, even though the Oscars would have provided good cover. Lots of discussion about bank nationalization and its meaning and consequences at:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x427089

I suppose they would want to wait until Obama was back from Canada, etc....

How odd is it that Bush and Obama would both go to our neighbor to the North at the same time?:tinfoilhat:

[ozymandius]

14. Good morning, Demeter.

Thank you for the well-wishes. He's much better since he purged what seems to be a bit of bad food. I think he came out really fortunately in that his head does not ache - just mild stomach pains after the initial bout. He is sleeping soundly with no repeat performances with 'Uncle John'.

I checked into the WE thread - per the usual to recommend and post something I had found. But everything seemed well under control and covered ever-so-thoroughly.

[Pachamama]

27. Good Morning Ozymandius! Hope the Lil Ozy is better...

Both my Pachababies were sick about two weeks ago with a flu bug that had them vomiting non-stop and diarhea. It seemed like it was more like food poisoning - until I got it. It lasted about 24-48 hours and is brutal. Is it possible that your lil one has the same flu bug that is going around?

Glad he is better and hopefully the rest of the family! :hi:

[AnneD]

37. I have been innundated with stomach flu....

a respiratory bug with fevers around 100 and those kids with temps of 101-102+ have had flu. That's why posts have been spotty.

[kickysnana]

38. TV Newz identified that one as norovirus here in frigid MN.

There was a 24 hour one going around at that same time.
Our germ identifiers seem to be spot on this year.

[CatholicEdHead]

70. I had that around inauguration

it was a miserable time to get :puke: sick.

[CountAllVotes]

41. ugh

I have it too. Started with a sore throat - then the fevers. Now laryngitis. :(

[ozymandius]

3. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

6. Oil rises above $40 amid weak demand, OPEC cuts

SINGAPORE – Oil prices crept above $40 a barrel Monday in Asia as investors weighed a deepening U.S. recession against signs that OPEC production cuts are eroding supply.

Benchmark crude for April delivery rose 40 cents to $40.43 a barrel by late afternoon in Singapore on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 15 cents to settle at $40.03 on Friday.

The March contract expired Friday at $38.94 a barrel.

Dismal jobs, industrial production and corporate earnings reports so far this year have heightened investor fears that the worst U.S. recession in decades is deepening.

....

OPEC has pledged to cut 4.2 million barrels a day from production since September, and the group's former president, Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil, told state media on Sunday that the 13-nation cartel is likely to cut further when it meets on March 15.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures were steady at $1.07 a gallon. Heating oil rose 0.33 cent to $1.20 a gallon, while natural gas for March delivery jumped 1.7 cents to $4.02 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

7. SEC probed Stanford companies; red flags abounded

WASHINGTON – For years, there were red flags — so many they could have massed into a crimson blanket.

As with the Bernard Madoff case, the scandal surrounding billionaire R. Allen Stanford now seems clear and obvious in hindsight. Yet Stanford managed to run his alleged scheme even while the Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators had him on their radar screens and investigated his businesses. Stanford wasn't charged until last week.

....

Stanford, who was served legal papers by FBI agents last week, hasn't been charged with any crime.

The SEC began investigating Stanford's businesses in October 2006 but was asked by another, unidentified federal agency to suspend its inquiry, an SEC official in Texas told news organizations last week.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090223/ap_on_bi_ge/stanford_sec_warning_signs

---

Please read the list of warning signs that caught the SEC's interest. Somebody who gave the 'stand down' order is gonna be in trouble.

[Demeter]

12. Yeah, Sure

These lily=livered "protectors of America" can't even prosecute or impeach a confessed war criminal, and they are going to go after white collar crime?

Don't hold your breath.

[radfringe]

16. ..."Somebody who gave the 'stand down' order is gonna be in trouble."

my money is on blaming Linda Chatman Thomsen - she'll be the scapegoat for everything that has gone wrong with the SEC ( http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/02/09/sec-enforcement-chief-to-resign/ )

Obama seems more and more reluctant to investigate what has happened over the past 8 years - and this is very disappointing to me.

yeah, Reid, Pelosi, and Conyers are making noise about investigating this and that... so far that's all it is - NOISE

If anyone is going to get the Investigation Train moving down the tracks it's going to be Waxman - IF he's not squashed in the meantime. Kuchinich is making noise to demand who gave the order to shut down the investigation, but - (and I know I'll get flamed for this) - Kuchinich has been marginalized, not much pull left.

I expect the result of any investigation will end with a couple of mid to low level functionaries taking the heat and that will be it. A couple of lambs to shut us up.

[AnneD]

40. No flame here......

anyone with a sense of outrage at the theft, lying, and other crimes of high treason against the state have been marginalized and portrayed as loonies by the media. I hate to think what our children and our grandchildren will say about our spinelessness. I am so ashamed of what the bulk of our citizenry as become. What WILL it take for people to get off their butts and demand justice-when the money is all gone and we are totally bankrupt? I am so ashamed. We have become a nation of whiners!

[specimenfred1984]

45. It takes the guts to speak up and run the criminals out of your area

A lot of people aren't able to do that due to age, illness, etc... and many others are simply cowards. Standing up for what you believe in frequently involves being hated everywhere and facing direct personal threats and danger. Most of the time, it also involves being ignored and discredited. Only a few people are actually willing to go the distance.

[Demeter]

58. And Far Too Many Are Living Lives of Crime Themselves

and unwilling to upset their own apple carts...that's the problem with corruption---it spreads.

[AnneD]

65. But here is a secret for you.......

The criminals and bullies you speak out against are more afraid of you than you are of them. I have been out on a limb many a time. Cussedness must just run in the family.

[Tansy_Gold]

68. First hand from a former whistleblower --

No they aren't more afraid of you than you are of them.

I've done it twice in my lifetime, and I've been made to regret it.

If they were afraid, they wouldn't have done the shit in the first place. They do not think like "us." They have neither a guilt nor a shame gene.

In order to be a whistleblower, you have to be prepared to lose EVERYTHING. Most people aren't.



Tansy Gold

[AnneD]

86. I never make a threat I can't back up.....

I also like to keep them off balance.

And yes-you have to be prepared to lose all.

And yes, they are afraid of what can happen if it does leak out. Most of the folks above like to run it like their fifdom. I work under a union so we do have some leverage.

That's the power of Unions and why they are so 'dangerous'.

[PassingFair]

83. By the media?

By our own party.

Sick. Sick. Sick...

[Festivito]

13. Debt: 02/19/2009 10,802,021,982,124.74 (UP 12,096,206,927.98) (12B$.)

(Like a Friday dump, but not an extravagant amount.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,495,008,105,385.21 + 4,307,013,876,739.53
UP 12,906,622,783.22 + DOWN 810,415,855.24

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.81, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 305,832,086 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $35,320.11.
A family of three owes $105,960.32. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 34 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 7,527,847,678.89.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,771,349,887.15.
The average for the last 34 days would be 5,092,367,547.49.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 21 reports in 30 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.07B$ per report, 0.09B$/day so far.
There were 96 reports in 142 days of FY2009 averaging 8.10B$ per report, 5.47B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,431 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 12.8 and 18.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/19/2009 10,802,021,982,124.74 BHO (UP 175,144,933,211.66 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 777,297,085,212.30 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/29/2009 +014,335,901,611.96 ------------**********
01/30/2009 +007,363,512,286.86 ------------*********
02/02/2009 +046,334,807,167.90 ------------********** Mon
02/03/2009 -000,138,225,404.41 ---
02/04/2009 -000,068,491,025.50 ----
02/05/2009 +046,668,131,793.54 ------------**********
02/06/2009 +000,340,839,567.98 ------------********
02/09/2009 -000,572,980,736.98 --- Mon
02/10/2009 +000,388,825,726.33 ------------********
02/11/2009 -000,221,760,520.78 ---
02/12/2009 +043,810,585,841.25 ------------**********
02/13/2009 -000,268,428,512.00 ---
02/17/2009 +028,425,868,676.29 ------------********** Tue
02/18/2009 +000,178,127,394.43 ------------********
02/19/2009 +012,906,622,783.22 ------------**********

199,483,336,650.09 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,137,390,178,865.67 in last 154 days.
That's 1,137B$ in 154 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 112% of that highest year ever only in 154 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 154 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3747988&mesg_id=3748026

[tclambert]

33. What is the wealth of America?

Sometimes you see lists of wealthy people saying, "So-and-so has a net worth $33 billion," or "Daddy Warbucks has assets valued at $25.7 billion." But what is the total wealth of the USA? Does someone keep that figure?

The real question I want to ask is, "Did America gain or lose wealth during the Bush administration?" With $4.899 billion added in national debt, and private debt increased tremendously, and housing prices plummeting, and commercial real estate, too, and trillions lost in the stock market, did the net worth of the United States of America shrink in the last eight years? My suspicion is "Yes," because I find it hard to think of any counteracting gains in any area. Exxon Mobil made obscene record profits the last two years, but at great cost to other parts of the economy. It wouldn't surprise me at all if every dollar they made cost the rest of the economy $5 or $10.

Does anyone know where the numbers live that could answer these questions?

[Festivito]

95. Don't know. Last heard it from Thom Hartmann of AAR.

The value probably rose during **. Fake bubble making money from CDO/CDS. That's why we're in such trouble now -- all the fake holdings and not enough dollar bills to chase it. At least that's my guess. But then, I'm harboring a tin-foil hat deluxe idea that the Fed is holding dollar bills in order to create deflation and when their real masters say so, they'll release them unleashing an inflation that will make Wiemar Republic look like a fresh mosquito bite. (They still won't report the M3.)

There was an attempt under Carter to assess the value of the US. Include forests, pristine land, and other items that defy pricing. (Those wondrously silly Dems in Congress back then.) Would have been nice as Reagan's junk bond boom destroyed ancient forests and hardly a peep was heard. Had we had a dollar amount on the loss, at least we'd have had an arguing point for the self-righteous fiscal conservatives turned fools.

I'd like to find a source for Gross World Product, and then GWWealth along with Gross Domestic Wealth. I'm sure it's out there, somewhere.

I'd love to plug it in. Also want to change some of the calculations to separate ** time from Obama's time on the debt. Just don't even have time to keep up reading. Haven't even had dinner yet.

[DemReadingDU]

100. List of countries by GDP (nominal)

Does this help? List of countries GDP that total for the world.

List of countries by GDP (nominal)
edit for tinyurl...
http://tinyurl.com/y2pn7u

[tclambert]

103. GDP is more like income. I was wondering more about net worth.

Real estate, stock market value, natural resources, business assets, that sort of thing. Probably hopeless as so many of those things have questionable or volatile valuations.

Thanks for the reference link, though. That gave me three sources for national GDPs for when I have questions about them.

[Festivito]

94. Debt: 02/20/2009 10,838,758,414,164.46 (UP 36,736,432,039.72) (2 days up.)

(Have to start borrowing for that stimulus sometime. Not going to enjoy it, but, happen it must.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,530,346,473,368.37 + 4,308,411,940,796.09
UP 35,338,367,983.16 + UP 1,398,064,056.56

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.81, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 305,838,258 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $35,439.51.
A family of three owes $106,318.53. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 9,212,233,271.80.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,062,712,175.05.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,834,882,750.05.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 22 reports in 31 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.36B$ per report, 0.31B$/day so far.
There were 97 reports in 143 days of FY2009 averaging 8.39B$ per report, 5.69B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,430 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 12.8 and 20.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/20/2009 10,838,758,414,164.46 BHO (UP 211,881,365,251.38 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 814,033,517,252.00 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/30/2009 +007,363,512,286.86 ------------*********
02/02/2009 +046,334,807,167.90 ------------********** Mon
02/03/2009 -000,138,225,404.41 ---
02/04/2009 -000,068,491,025.50 ----
02/05/2009 +046,668,131,793.54 ------------**********
02/06/2009 +000,340,839,567.98 ------------********
02/09/2009 -000,572,980,736.98 --- Mon
02/10/2009 +000,388,825,726.33 ------------********
02/11/2009 -000,221,760,520.78 ---
02/12/2009 +043,810,585,841.25 ------------**********
02/13/2009 -000,268,428,512.00 ---
02/17/2009 +028,425,868,676.29 ------------********** Tue
02/18/2009 +000,178,127,394.43 ------------********
02/19/2009 +012,906,622,783.22 ------------**********
02/20/2009 +035,338,367,983.16 ------------**********

220,485,803,021.29 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,174,126,610,905.39 in last 155 days.
That's 1,174B$ in 155 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 115% of that highest year ever only in 155 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 155 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3751873&mesg_id=3751900

[ozymandius]

15. U.S. Eyes Large Stake in Citi

Citigroup Inc. is in talks with federal officials that could result in the U.S. government substantially expanding its ownership of the struggling bank, according to people familiar with the situation.

While the discussions could fall apart, the government could wind up holding as much as 40% of Citigroup's common stock. Bank executives hope the stake will be closer to 25%, these people said.

Any such move would give federal officials far greater influence over one of the world's largest financial institutions. Citigroup has proposed the plan to its regulators. The Obama administration hasn't indicated if it supports the plan, according to people with knowledge of the talks.

.....

The talks reflect a growing fear that Citigroup and other big U.S. banks could be overwhelmed by losses amid the recession and housing crisis. Last week, Citigroup's share price fell below $2 to an 18-year low. Bank executives increasingly believe that the government needs to take a larger ownership stake in the institution to stop the slide.

Under the scenario being considered, a substantial chunk of the $45 billion in preferred shares held by the government would convert into common stock, people familiar with the matter said. The government obtained those shares, equivalent to a 7.8% stake, in return for pumping capital into Citigroup.

The move wouldn't cost taxpayers additional money, but other Citigroup shareholders would see their stock diluted. A larger ownership stake by the government could fuel speculation that other troubled banks will line up for similar agreements.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123535148618845005.html

[ozymandius]

17. Asian, European stocks advance on Citigroup report

HONG KONG – Asian and European stock markets advanced Monday, as investors digested reports the U.S. government might expand its stake in troubled banking giant Citigroup to ease the financial crisis.

Worries that major Western banks like Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp might have to be nationalized because of mounting bad debts sent global markets sharply lower last week.

But investors seemed relieved, at least for now, to have some clarity about the fate of Citigroup after the Wall Street Journal said late Sunday the company is negotiating with authorities to increase the U.S. government's stake in the teetering lender to as much as 40 percent.

....

As markets opened in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.1 percent, Germany's DAX added 1.7 percent and France's CAC-40 was up 1.5 percent.

Earlier in the day, Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed up 475.93 points, or 3.8 percent, at 13,175.10, and South Korea's Kospi was up 33.60, or 3.2 percent, at 1099.55 as the country's currency, the won, recovered some after plummeting against the dollar last week.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090223/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[Roland99]

21. US futures up on the news

DJIA INDEX 7,424.00 72.00
S&P 500 777.60 8.10
NASDAQ 100 1,184.00 12.25

[DemReadingDU]

32. Mish Shedlock: Citigroup Begs To Be 40% Nationalized

2/22/09 Citigroup Begs To Be 40% Nationalized
Citigroup is in deep trouble. Its share price is $1.95 and the market is recognizing what I said a year ago: "Citigroup Is Insolvent". Of course it is not just Citigroup that is insolvent, the entire global banking system is insolvent.

Nonetheless, Citigroup pretends otherwise.

Inquiring minds are reading Citi presses officials to take 40% stake.

Citigroup is a black hole, sucking in every dollar thrown at it and it still wants more. No amount seems enough to save it. Taxpayers have already guaranteed a whopping $300 billion dollars worth of Citigroup debt. Now, two months later, Citigroup is begging for still more capital, pretending that will save it.

Not only is Citigroup a black hole from which no taxpayer dollars can escape, but Geithner's brain is a black hole from which no intelligent thought can escape.

How the hell can you preserve a system this way? The answer is you can't.

Spare me the sap.

Geithner is attempting to bail out his banking buddies, no more, no less, and he does not give a damn what it costs taxpayers to do so.

Citigroup is struggling to remain independent even as it knows full well, that without still more government intervention, it is worthless. In fact, Citigroup is less than worthless because without more taxpayer cash infusions it cannot survive.

To hell with Citigroup. Bust it up and sell it. It's the best possible outcome for everyone involved.

a bit more...
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02/citigroup-begs-to-be-40-nationalized.html

[AnneD]

42. 40% nationalized.....

is that like being 40% pregnant. :eyes: There ARE absolutes in this world.

[DemReadingDU]

44. Really!

The banks either are nationalized, or not. I think Geithner is trying to disguise his intent. Um, the markets have already figured it out.

[Demeter]

18. A Slippery-Slope, Stealth Takeover

a real deterrent for other cowboy bankers. Not.

Guess they are afraid of panicking the public. Since the public has no money in the banking business anyway, this seems ridiculously sensitive.

Or maybe it's the overseas money they wish to lull. Another waste of deception.

[ozymandius]

19. Creeping nationalization, maybe?

(thinking out loud)

If 'nationalization' is such a scary word and doubly a scary prospect for the good ol' free market USA - then how plausible might it seem to offer a plan that provides slightly less than a controlling stake in a company's stock? Then here's the odd part: the Obama administration "has not indicated whether it would back the plan". It's their plan. Not Citi's. They express a desire to keep federal ownership at 25%.

So what gives? Is there a communication disconnect here? Maybe over the notion of which federal 'authority' is engaged with Citi in negotiations?

But with a 40% stake - and proven insolvency through the stress-testing - it would just be a hop to full government control. Shareholders would already be dented with the 40% stake. A full federal takeover will wipe them out completely. I am thinking this plan being floated is an early alert.

[Demeter]

25. Somehow I Cannot See FDR Sneaking Around Like This

He wasn't the type. And the situation was much worse. And sneaking around wouldn't give the right feel to the effort to lead.

Hate to think that Obama was so invested in his dream of bipartisanship that his confidence and feelings are damaged by the typical modern GOP boorishness.

[DemReadingDU]

26. As long as people's ATM work, it doesn't matter to them if banks nationalized

Most people want continuity. Don't disrupt their lives. My family thinks that nationalization is fine if it keeps the banking system from failing. It's all about using those debit cards at the ATM.

But for the elites, nationalization is a big no-no. They believe government ownership is just bad.

[tclambert]

31. What scares people about the word nationalization is two-fold.

1) On the political side, the right wingers will reflexively scream, "Socialism! Communism!" and try to heap all the negatives of those onto anything Obama-related or Democrat-related.

2) On the quieter side, it really does bother people that the government can come in and just take possession of our things. When a new highway requires one reluctant landowner to sell against his wishes, it makes us uncomfortable, even when we can clearly see the benefit "for the greater good."

In the case of nationalization, there's a lot of talk about cutting off the shareholders, punishing those "greedy bastards" for owning a piece of those bad banks. But they weren't the ones who made the costly and ultimately stupid business decisions. Mostly, shareholders are silent partners. Some are less than that, unconscious partners, who don't even know they own shares in those companies because they own them through mutual funds, pension accounts, etc. I might be one of them. I still have a tiny amount in mutual funds, and I do not know everything they invested in. Once in a while I get a statement that gives a list, a long, long list, of companies they bought stock in. There could be a bank on there. If nationalization were to erase the $5.13 I have invisibly invested in banks, I could live with that. I am willing to make sacrifices for the greater good. It's easier when they are small ones. Others could feel more pain. I would understand their objection.

The people who really deserve punitive action, though, are the executives who made the fatal decisions. And they are the people least likely to suffer. They have paid themselves over-generously and insulated themselves from any consequences, largely at shareholder expense. As a shareholder, if I am one, I'd like to sue them for malpractice.

[ret5hd]

43. Well, I guess one option would be to just let those banks fold...

and leave those shareholders with the same bag-o-nothing they'd get if the banks were nationalized.

Unless you are suggesting we (taxpayers) should bail the banks out no matter the cost???

[tclambert]

63. Even that doesn't give the executives their just desserts.

They just always get whatever dessert they want. The shareholders risk getting nothing for their investments. That was a risk they signed up for. But the CEOs, who actually did the deeds we all want punished, they will walk away with bonuses and golden parachutes worth millions. For ruining their companies, ruining the nation's economy, ruining the world's economy, they will not have to get jobs as greeters at the big box store.

I don't much mind the investors losing their investment. Maybe a little bit, because there are innocents who just put their money where they were advised to, who will now have to scale back their retirements. But it's not really justice unless the responsible executives reimburse the investors every penny possible. But putting the concepts of "executives" and "paying back" together doesn't seem to work.

Every scenario seems to come out: Taxpayers pay. Shareholders pay. Executives get paid.

[UpInArms]

29. What is nationalization?

http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/20/news/nationalization.what.is.it.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009022017

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- What does it mean to nationalize a bank, anyway?

That question has weighed on the minds of investors in the two weeks since the Obama administration's comprehensive financial industry stability plan fell flat.

And it came to a head Friday. Nationalization fears helped drag down shares of Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) as much as 36% at one point Friday. BofA recovered most of its losses to finish Friday down just 3.6%. But Cit's stock closed Friday with a 22% loss.

The term nationalization has been used to cover a range of very different outcomes. Most obviously, it refers to the outright takeover of troubled firms, such as when the Treasury Department put mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) into conservatorship.

But it has also been used by some people to cover sizable investments that give government officials considerable say in a firm's activities -- such as the loan guarantees extended in recent months to Citi and BofA.

The Obama administration has said it wants to keep the banking system in private hands, which seems to suggest it isn't aiming to run the likes of Citi and BofA.

"We have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system," Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said two weeks ago.

But the White House hasn't completely ruled out taking over troubled firms, either - if with a very different intent.

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

30. Karl Denninger explains bank nationalization

2/23/09 Karl Denninger: On Bank Nationalization

Let's deal with this directly, since there have been articles on both Bloomberg and The NY Times in the last couple of days, among other places.

First, some definitions. Some would claim that we have "already" nationalized the banks via the TARP. I disagree - a capital injection is not "nationalization", although it shares some characteristics with one.

An FDIC takeover is also not "nationalization". In an FDIC takeover, such as happened with IndyMac Bank, the FDIC (a government agency) strips off the assets and liabilities and then either runs down the portfolios or sells them off. There is no intention to return the firm to private ownership or continue operating it in its present form - it is dissolved,

"Nationalization" is control of a financial or other institution by government while it continues to operate "transparently" for its customers and creditors.

The NY Times said:

"The aim is to clean up the banks efficiently, rather than allow the problems to become bigger, and then — as soon as possible — to sell the banks back to private investors. They will be smaller institutions. And there will be proper regulations in place to ensure that this catastrophe does not happen again."

Unfortunately Nationalization will do no such thing. Nor is it similar to other takeovers done thus far, as is also alleged:

"Critics will charge that government bureaucrats do not have the skills to pull this off. But the United States has a successful history of seizing insolvent banks through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The takeovers contemplated here are larger in scale and would be more complex than those that have generally fallen under the F.D.I.C.’s purview. But the notion that the government totally lacks the know-how to nationalize insolvent banks is not valid. "

Of course it is valid. When the FDIC comes in and takes over an institution it is not to "clean it up"; it is to resolve it - or rather, to dissolve it. The insolvent institution effectively goes into a vat of acid, with the precious metals and other valuables dropping to the bottom where they are fished out and sold. The rest of the firm disappears - literally.

Now on to Bloomberg:

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s refusal to clarify his intentions regarding either bank “is allowing for the absolute decimation of the values of Bank of America and Citigroup on a daily basis,” said William Smith of Smith Asset Management in New York. At the White House today, spokesman Robert Gibbs said the Obama administration “continues to strongly believe a privately held banking system is the correct way to go.”

Now there's reporting. Actual reporting.

"Belief" is not a strategy and is not tradeable.

Let's once again point out what I've pointed out dozens of times before, going back to Fannie and Freddie - The Market always calls all bets.

lots more...
http://market-ticker.org/archives/818-On-Bank-Nationalization.html

[Kolesar]

53. Thanks! eom

[radfringe]

48. flash from the past

As was repeatedly told DUers beginning in 2006, CitiStreet - the 50/50 JV that Citi and State Street set up to "service" pensions - is on the radar of key Dems on Capitol Hill, due to the efforts of certain whistleblowers.
( http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&q=+site:www.democraticunderground.com+citistreet+corpgovactivist )

This is going to get ugly, as pension plans come forward with tales of how Citi and STT engaged in eye-popping transactions with their funds.

-----


Delphi/GM's retirees sue State Street; Michigan's Conyers "pissed ...To see whether your plan also has a State Street or CitiStreet infestation .... CorpGovActivist (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author ...
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2392715 - 104k - Cached - Similar pages -

A Rumsfeldian Remider for BHJ and Others Interested in State ...CorpGovActivist (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author · Click to view this .... don't overlook CitiStreet, their 50/50 JV with Citi. ...
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2682012 - 116k - Cached - Similar pages -

Today's score: Offshore Overlords, 2; American People, 0; Your ...CitiStreet LLC, the 50/50 joint venture between the two companies, ... CorpGovActivist (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author · Click to ...
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2687548 - 39k - Cached - Similar pages -

Democratic Underground - Today, the forecast calls for plenty more ...... and many are discovering that they have a State Street and/or CitiStreet ..... Don't Forget CalPERS, CorpGovActivist, Oct-14-06 02:51 PM, #129 ...
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2359814&mesg_id... - 113k - Cached - Similar pages -

[DemReadingDU]

96. I remember some of those postings

Scary. No doubt my meager pension has been hosed with toxic waste.

[Demeter]

59. Creeping Nationalization. If You Sneak Up on the Unsuspecting Bank

you won't wake Joe Blow or the old lady down the street who calls the cops with every little thing...

[UpInArms]

28. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.541 Change -0.052 (-0.07%)

US Dollar Hits Key Resistance - Nearing a Turning Point?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Hits_Key_Resistance_1235157955175.html

The US dollar ended the week mostly higher, despite big losses on Friday, as the DXY Index pulled back from resistance at the 2008 highs. The outlook for the greenback for the next few weeks may hinge upon whether or not the drop signals a reversal or ultimately yields a break higher. Looking ahead to this coming week, there will be a handful of events that US dollar traders will need to watch as increased volatility could trigger sharp moves in the currency.

On February 24 at 10:00 ET, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for the month of February is forecasted to reach a fresh record low of 36.0, down from 37.7. With record keeping having begun in 1967, the plunge in sentiment makes the extent of the recession even more clear. However, with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke due to testify before the Senate on the economic and Fed policy at the same time, the consumer confidence result may have little impact on the markets. Instead, traders will be listening closely for more detailed outlooks on growth, unemployment, inflation, and the financial markets. Bearish commentary could weigh heavily on risk appetite, and as a result it will be important to keep an eye on the link between the currency markets and stocks, as the US dollar hasn’t been responding as strongly to shifts in equities but could still benefit from flight-to-quality.

On February 26 at 8:30 ET, signs that domestic demand is showing no sign of recovery should continue to emerge as US Durable Goods Orders are forecasted to have dropped 2.3 percent and even excluding transportation is anticipated to fall 2.0 percent. All told, this would mark the sixth straight month in which the headline reading failed to rise, and while this will have the most impact on forex trading, the markets should keep an eye on non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, as this number serves as a leading indicator for business investment.

Finally, on February 27 at 08:30 ET, the preliminary reading of Q4 GDP for the US is forecasted to be revised even lower after initial estimates showed the index down 3.5 percent. The latest results may show a sharp 5.4 percent contraction, which would still be the worst since Q1 1982. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has already declared that the US has been in recession since December 2007, but a plunge in GDP in line with expectations will only suggest that the contraction in growth will continue to be worse than previously expected.

...more...

Euro Finds Resistance After Citigroup Bailout Inspired Rally, Will U.S. Nationalize Banks?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro_Finds_Resistance_After_Citigroup_1235386561885.html

The Euro shot higher to test resistance at 1.3000 on the news that the U.S. government was increasing its stake in Citigroup. The Euro/dollar has fallen back toward the 20-day SMA at 1.2868 before finding support. A relatively empty economic docket will leave the U.S. intentions for the banking system as the focus for markets today. The final reading for Italian consumer prices was the only indicator to cross the wires. The headline numbers remained unchanged at -0.1% m/m and 1.6% y/y with the EU harmonized reading revised lower to -17.7% m/m and 1.4% y/y.

Inflation data for the region is due out n Friday and is expected to show inflation fell to 1.1% in January which will keep deflation as a possibility as price fall below the central bank’s 2% target. President Trichet is forecasted to cut rates by 50bps next week which may limit the upside potential for the single currency. However, as the ECB is one of the few major central banks which is not on the verge of quantitative easing which could add support for the Euro as other countries start printing more money. 1.3000 is a key level to watch the psychological resistance level could prove formidable and another failed test of the price level could lead to increased downside risk for the single currency.

The Pound would also shoot higher on the Citigroup news breaking above resistance at the 50-Day SMA at 1.4574 to reach above 1.4650. Details of the U.K. government’s January bank bailout plan are expected to be revealed this week which is also aiding bullish sterling sentiment. There exists trendline resistance at 1.4800 with the February 9th high of 1.4984 is the next barrier to watch. Upcoming U.K. 4Q GDP reading could stall sterling momentum if the growth figures are revised lower from their initial readings as is forecasted. The BoE is expected to lower their benchmark rate at their next policy meeting as the current recession deepens.

The dollar/yen would reach as high as 95.00 as the pair has erased all of its losses from Friday. The Yen has seen its correlation to risk appetite restored over the past few days. However, it could be a product of broader based dollar weakness that was seen on Friday on the nationalization fears and today we could be seeing a retrace of those losses. However, this relationship needs to be watch as it may dictate future trends for the currency.

The dollar was battered overnight as news that the government may increase its stake in Citigroup to as high as 40% sparked risk appetite. The government’s clear intentions on its plans for the banking system had sent traders to the sidelines and the dollar benefitted last week from the safe-haven flows. However, the move does increase concerns that President Obama will move closer to nationalizing troubled banks as was hinted by Senator Christopher Dodd on Friday. Indeed, the Senator’s comments had sent equity markets into a freefall before White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs calmed fears when he stated "This administration continues to strongly believe that a privately held banking system is the correct way to go, ensuring that they are regulated sufficiently by this government." An empty economic calendar will leave dollar price action at the mercy of the broader themes. If markets continue to view the Citigroup bailout as a positive then we may continue to see dollar weakness, however if nationalization fears grow then we may see a return to risk aversion and the dollar regain its footing.

...more...

[KoKo]

34. The news this morning would be amusing if it weren’t so sad. (Barry Ridholtz)

Why Bankruptcy For Autos But Not Banks?
By Barry Ritholtz - February 23rd, 2009, 7:09AM

The news this morning would be amusing if it weren’t so sad.

The Obama administration is undergoing a battle between its own good instincts with those of its Treasury Secretary.

Away from Treasury, on the side of intelligence, new policies, a clean break from the Paulson/Bush plans — I believe during the campaign, it was called CHANGE — and inevitability, are prepackaged bankruptcies, clean balance sheets, and a fresh start. This is reflected in the Fed exploration of $40 billion in bankruptcy funding for GM.

On the side of more of the dame, bad decision making, regulatory capture, worshiping sacred cows, and a hard-to-understand goal of saving the banks rather than the financial system, is the utterly absurd proposal to somehow spend 10X the market cap of Citigroup for a 40% stake in the apparently insolvent firm.

This is an accounting maneuver, a convertible preferred that greatly dilutes the common shares, and adds no new capital. Put on paper, it allows the leverage to look less egregious.

One can imagine an incredulous junior Treasury staffer — one who hasn’t been captured by the big banks, and is capable of basic arithmetic — saying the following:

“Explain this to me again: We put in many times the value of this company — we have already given them $45 billion dollars, and guaranteed almost $300 billion dollars worth of bad paper — and we get less than 50%? WTF? How the hell does THAT work? “

Its apparent that this sleight of hand doesn’t work to just about everyone except Tim Geithner (and a few others).

At the same time, an industry that had nothing to do with the current crisis is on the fast track to a healthy pre-packaged bankruptcy.

Moral Hazard aside, the different approaches reflect the relative importance of different sectors. Banks must be saved at all costs, but GM and Chrysler must go the bankruptcy route. The only explanation in treating the two industries so radically differently is an overt hostility to Unions on the part of many.

My views are that they ALL need to go to a prepackaged bankruptcy — banks, autos, etc.

Here’s some excerpts:

The NYT:

Citigroup approached the regulators with a plan that would allow them to convert a large amount of the government’s $45 billion of preferred shares, which is treated as debt, into common stock, this person said. The government owns a stake of roughly 8 percent, but that could grow to as much as 40 percent.

Converting the preferred shares while also issuing more common shares would bring Citigroup closer to the mix of equity that the government is likely to demand when it introduces the stress test. But that would severely dilute the value of shares held by existing Citigroup stockholders

WSJ:

Outside advisers to the U.S. Treasury have started lining up the largest bankruptcy loan ever, talking with banks and other lenders about at least $40 billion in financing for General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, in case the two auto makers need it, said several people familiar with the matter.

While acknowledging the grimness of the task, administration officials involved in the auto talks said they are trying to find a way to restructure the two companies without resorting to bankruptcy proceedings. They stressed the latest efforts were “due diligence” on the part of the government advisers, and that bankruptcy financing may not be necessary.

Still, people involved in talks with senior Obama administration officials said that the administration believes that the option of Chapter 11 filings by the two auto makers needs to be seriously considered.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

[Demeter]

60. The FDR Haters Say Roosevelt Trashed the Banking System

to save the dollar (currency). So this time they want to trash the dollar to save the banking system.

"the fact that there is no "system" per se, just a pile of fraud and gambling, is immaterial. If the really awful banks were put down like old dogs or horses, and the healthier regional banks were nurtured, neither system nor currency would have to take a fatal blow and we could eke a way out to something like a free market.

If I were Obama, I would ignore the "Globalization" freaks, turn my back on international banking, and concentrate my efforts within the physical borders of the nation. Once my own house was in order, I would turn to rebuilding relationships with other nations. Notice I say "nations", not "multinational corporations".

I would keep arm's length or maybe that proverbial ten foot pole between the US govt. and the multiationals. If it means international incidents, so be it. Use the extraordinary powers Bush created to beat them into sumission--except the extraordinary rendition and torture.

The sooner decoupling occurs, the freer and less stressed the whole world will be. And the jobs will come home to roost.

[tclambert]

66. What KIND of bankruptcy are we talking about?

Chapter 7 or Chapter 11? Chapter 7 is death and dissolution. Chapter 11 is reorganization, paying off debt at pennies on the dollar, but staying in business, and emerging in three years or so as a lighter, healthier company. The outcome is vastly different.

It may be that the auto bailout bought us the difference between these two types of bankruptcy. In December, the analysis here on SMW indicated they would probably have to go for a 7. Now, they might be able to make an 11.

Either one puts more stress on the banks. The banks still look like they are headed for a 7. Maybe some of them could try for an 11.

I once invested in a company that was in Chapter 11. Their stock price was low, and I knew they had good products and a solid customer base. It took two years for them to come out of Chapter 11, a year earlier than originally planned, their stock price rebounded, and I made a halfway decent return. That was back when I only invested in companies I knew about and didn't trust mutual funds. If only I'd stuck to that approach.

[Lasher]

36. Forecasters: Economy worse in '09, better in '10

By JEANNINE AVERSA
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Brace yourself: The recession is projected to worsen this year. The country stands to lose a sizable chunk of economic activity in 2009 as consumers at home and abroad retrench in the face of persistent economic troubles. And the U.S. unemployment rate - now at 7.6 percent, the highest in more than 16 years - is expected hit a peak of 9 percent this year.

That gloomy outlook came from leading forecasters in the latest survey by the National Association for Business Economics to be released Monday. The new estimates are roughly in line with other recent projections, including those released last week by the Federal Reserve.

"The steady drumbeat of weak economic and financial market data have made business economists decidedly more pessimistic on the economic outlook for the next several quarters," said NABE president Chris Varvares, head of Macroeconomic Advisers.

All told, Varvares and his fellow forecasters now expect the economy to shrink by 1.9 percent this year, a much deeper contraction than the 0.2 percent dip projected in the fall.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/T/TROUBLED_ECONOMY?SITE=ALANN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

[kickysnana]

39. OK? You children go play now Daddy will take care of it.

(door shuts). Honey we are ruined, there is no way out.

[TalkingDog]

47. Ummmm....You said that last year.

I realize that the sad fact is the majority of Americans are on some type of psychoactive substance. Add to that the highest functional illiteracy rate in the "industrialized" world and the persistance informational overload designed to keep us in a pesistant state of bemusement.....

I know the scant 1/2 a dozen of us who are actually paying attention can't do much damage, so do us a favor: since nobody else seems to notice, stop wasting our time while simultaneously insulting our intelligence. You should, at the very least, attempt to amuse us with the utter brazenness of your bald-faced lies.

[Danascot]

46. Cats have a better track record

It should be CNBC but they're on the right track.

[Danascot]

50. Now they tell us

The 5 biggest lies on Wall Street

These are the tenets you counted on for years, like ‘buy and hold’ and heed the advice of ‘experts.’ Keep these whoppers in mind as you plan your financial future.

By Michael Brush

If you had any money in stocks in the past few years, you might be feeling pretty dumb right now — since you’re down more than 40% on those “investments.”

But stop being so hard on yourself. Yes, you probably should have pulled more money out in time.
But on the other hand, you were probably suckered by any number of big lies foisted on you by Wall Street and market players who stood to profit.

Here are the five biggest lies that probably hurt you the most and will be worth remembering in the future.

* Big Lie No. 1: The market will take care of everything
* Big Lie No. 2: The ‘experts’ will help you
* Big Lie No. 3: Buy and hold
* Big Lie No. 4: Overpaid CEOs are worth the money
* Big Lie No. 5: Buy a flat-screen TV, save the economy

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/the-5-biggest-lies-on-wall-street.aspx?page=1

[specimenfred1984]

51. Number 6: real estate always goes up

Lie number 7: TV business whores have value.
Lie number 8: Diversify.
Lie number 9: "Free" markets.
Lie number 10: Outsourcing creates jobs.

[Demeter]

61. And That King of All Whoppers: the GOP Supports the Marketplace and Business

[tclambert]

67. "Buy and hold" and that last one, "GOP supports the marketplace" are the ones that cost me.

I had a nice little fortune even after the tech bubble burst. I thought I could hold 'til those pro-Wall Street Republicans brought the stock market back up. But George Bush was president for 6 years, 6 freakin' years before the DJIA hit a new record high. And the broader indices were still down from their historic highs. Then he brought on this recession, and we see what I think has never happened before in the history of the stock market: a two term President leaves office with the stock market lower than when he entered. A few one-termers did that.

[tclambert]

91. Wrong, wrong. Get yer history straight, TC.

In addition to George W "Worstpresidentever" Bush, Wilson was a two termer, and the stock market lost about 10% over his eight years as Prez. Nixon saw the market down about 19%, but didn't finish out his second term. Among the one termers, Hoover saw a drop of 83%. Carter and Taft were about even. Every other president since 1900 saw the market go up.

Don't you hate it when facts spoil a good story?

[Tansy_Gold]

93. Hey, Tansy, we'd better keep an eye on ol' TC. He's

talkin' to hisself again.

:hi:


TG

[Danascot]

54. Stock-Market Pullback Isn’t Just ‘Financial’ Now

While eyes have been locked on the steep descent of Citigroup and Bank of America, financial stocks are no longer the main culprits in pulling the stock market toward 11-year lows.

Instead, manufacturers and even makers of basic consumer goods are now the biggest drags, a shift that has some investors worried.

Although the current bear market began as a housing and banking crisis, the damage has spread. Financial stocks have shrunk so much in value that their continuing declines, while still large in percentage terms, are too small in dollar terms to move the indexes as much.

A more diverse group is leading the declines today. A look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average this year shows declines in stocks like 3M and Procter & Gamble have had more of an impact than the drop in Citigroup or American Express.

“What started as a subprime mortgage crisis became a U.S. credit crisis, then a U.S. recession, and now we are in a full-fledged, globally synchronous recession of historic proportions,” says Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer BNY Mellon Wealth Management in New York. “There are very few areas that have been insulated from the decline in earnings and in stock-price performance.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106629/Stock-Market-Pullback-Isn%27t-Just-%27Financial%27-Now;_ylt=Aq42oN0F5HYzizFH8W5zjoa7YWsA

[Roland99]

55. DJIA dips under 7200, then a nice little rally at 1pm

Program trading or faeries?

[CatholicEdHead]

69. It is almost below 7100 right now

[Danascot]

56. Shiller: Stocks Not Yet Cheap Enough for Me

Yale professor Robert J. Shiller, the author of "Irrational Exuberance," created one of the most useful and predictive measures of stock-market valuation: the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE).

As Professor Shiller explains here, the CAPE mutes the impact of the business cycle by averaging 10 years of earnings. It thus provides a good picture of the market's value regardless of where we are in the business cycle.

<snip>

Professor Shiller's P/E has finally dropped below fair value for the first time in 15 years. The S&P 500 is down significantly since this chart was created, moreover, so the market's cyclically adjusted PE is now under 14X (compared to a long-term average of about 15X).

So is Prof. Shiller going all-in? No. He's waiting until the P/E drops below 10X, which it has done at major market lows in the past. That could happen either through an additional severe drop or a long period in which the market moves sideways and earnings grow again.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/190252/Shiller-Stocks-Not-Yet-Cheap-Enough-for-Me;_ylt=Ah6DEEsi4EVczjopCk2rI2q7YWsA?tickers=%5Edji,%5Egspc,DIA,SPY

[AnneD]

57. Antiques and collectibles keep gathering dust

CINCINNATI — People trying to sell their prized possessions these days are finding that — as with homes or stocks — the market value of everything from baseball cards to antique furniture has sunk.


Across the country, collectibles dealers and antiques appraisers are delivering bad news, and feeling pain themselves. The reason is simple: Potential buyers are outnumbered by desperate sellers.

That’s been dashing dreams of an Antiques Roadshow moment in which the TV show’s hosts appraise family heirlooms many times higher than the owner expected.

Super disappointment

In suburban Chicago, Ron Anderson put his treasured 1985 Bears’ Super Bowl game ball up for sale online through Craigslist.

“Instead of sitting around and worrying about things, I thought I’d do something,” said Anderson, whose construction contracting business is down. Anderson priced the ball, which was autographed by the late Hall of Fame running back Walter Payton and other stars, at $4,500, figuring he’d draw interest from wealthy Bears fans.

He was still waiting for an offer a month later.

more.......

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/6273365.html

At last-a chance to finish my Star Trek collectors plates.:evilgrin:
Folks keep forgetting....A BUYER'S MARKET IS NOT ABOUT A SELLER GETTING WHAT HE ASKS FOR, BUT WHAT BUYER'S ARE WILLING TO PAY.

[amandabeech]

62. GAAK!!! S&P below 752 autumn 2008 low.

Over 200 drop in Dow.

This is looking ugly a little before 3:00.

PPT? Page, Mr. PPT?

[specimenfred1984]

64. I wonder when it'll sink into the politicians that the U.S. economy will not change

until corruption is addressed? I think most politicians already know it and have moved on to lives of acceptance of fascism and crime. To me, this is the great question of our day, "our" day being the current era in America; will the USA be a corrupt nation of paid off cronies or a nation of ideals, laws and justice?

The next question is what will it take to achieve justice?

[TheWatcher]

71. Well, since most of them are either complicit, directly involved, or remain

aware but silent about the corruption, I think it's safe to say that ship sunk a long time ago.

As far as what it might take to achieve justice.

I am not sure the majority of the Public could handle or even consider that answer.

Sadly, this is what we face.

[Dr.Phool]

72. I thought I asked you kids to play nice while I'm out!

I turn my back, and you wipe out half the gains of the second Clinton Administration. At this rate, by the time I get back in town, we'll be back in the Reagan era.

[ozymandius]

73. It's the sickness.

And please - Jeebus! no! Not the Reagan administration again. The economic gains in the era had all the substance of a John Hughes movie.

[Tansy_Gold]

76. Maybe we'll get to go all the way back to the Carter era

and give it a better ending???????



TG

[ozymandius]

79. That would be a great start.

If we could erase the past thirty years of Saint Reagan-inspired destruction - then even greater.

[TheWatcher]

77. Hey now, ozy, Let's NOT Diss The Breakfast Club.

Or Weird Science.

Or Ferris Bueller.

Or Sixteen Candles.

Or Planes, Trains, And Automobiles.

They may not have substance, but they were very fun. :)

::TheWatcher is a shameless 80's whore::

:hi:

[ozymandius]

81. Heh. Planes Trains and Automobiles.

Good game! Good game! ("Those aren't pillows!")

[Ghost Dog]

84. Back to Kennedy's day would be something else;

and fast-forward into an alternate universe from right there.

edit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4TbrgIdm0E (So What, Davis/Coltrane).

(Good follow-on here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIVh2o9yKcs&NR=1 (Hancock)).

[CatholicEdHead]

89. Or Blues Brothers

Or Dragnet
Or License to Drive
Or Fletch
Or Goonies
Or The Great Outdoors
Or National Lampoons Vacation


/another shameless 80's movie whore. ;)

[TheWatcher]

102. License To Drive!!!!!!!!!

"That's OK Dad, I don't need a BMW. I already have a Mercedes."

And let's not forget Dream A Little Dream.

And Ghostbusters.

And Friday The 13th.

And Nightmare On Elm Street.

And Lost Boys.

And Escape From New York.

[TheWatcher]

74. Forget Reagan, the way we are going we could end up back in The Carter Years.

I will freely admit, I was very surprised by today's action.

Last night's Overnight Party in The Futures was very strong, and the Coordinated Support for Asia and Europe pointed to yet another day of reality defying antics by Da Boyz, and it sure started out that way, but it sure didn't end that way.

Nationalization for City and BAC seems all but certain now, but the one thing I was correct about last night was that both of those Stocks would rally today, and they did, albeit anemically. So for our illustrious Retail Insider who chastised me last night, remember what I said. They never need an excuse. And never believe anything until it is officially denied.

The Broader Market was horrific, with ADV/DEC numbers that reflected such.

Since this Decline began, 12 YEARS of Gains have been wiped out, and the 2003 Lows have been broken.

What this means is this entire, Fake, Manipulated, Bubble Fantasy that started in 1997 has now been WIPED OUT. I wonder how those who have cheered this on feel now?

And for those who have constantly berated members of this Forum for being Conspiracy Theorists, Doom-And Gloom Fetishists, and have Pooh-Poohed EVERY WARNING AND PIECE OF USEFUL, INFORMATIVE INFORMATION that has been shared here:

Are you done?

Are you ready to listen?

Are you awake?

CAN you allow yourself to awaken?

The news continues to deteriorate, the propaganda and happy talk continues to flow freely, and leadership is nowhere to be found.

As for this news about Citi this morning, my take on it is that Nationalization has BEGUN, and it's being done incrementally. More Boiling Frogs.

And yet more programs, schemes, and facades were announced today. NOW they promise to "Regulate" things. And the Stimulus Oversight. How ADORABLE. :eyes:

This is getting scary, my dear Marketeers, and it is deteriorating more rapidly than I thought it would.

Be safe.

It's getting ugly.

Wanted to post more stuff, but too busy around the household.

Watch for falling knives.

[ozymandius]

78. Never try to catch a falling knife. As for nationalization -

AIG is expected to post the largest loss in American history tomorrow, in excess of $60 billion. So, naturally, AIG has asked the Unites States taxpayers to prop them up buy them out - AGAIN. How many times do we have to buy this damned company?

Nationalize them too.

[TheWatcher]

80. After the way they have behaved with their assistance, I'd say DISMANTLE them.

How many times do we have to pay for them to throw another lavish party and throw it in our faces.

Criminals the lot of them.

Dismantle, Liquidate, Indict, Incarcerate.

[ozymandius]

82. Hear! Hear! (nt)

[Ghost Dog]

85. And claw back, of course. n/t

[DemReadingDU]

97. Dismantle, Liquidate, Indict, Incarcerate

Yes indeedy

[DemReadingDU]

99. No more propping with our tax money.

Why nationalize? As TheWatcher says: Dismantle, Liquidate, Indict, Incarcerate

[Demeter]

90. All Reagan, All the Time

I'd dig him up and burn the bones if I thought it would exorcise his evil spirit.

[ozymandius]

75. Here's the close in all it's warty glory.

Dow 7,114.78 Down 250.89 (3.41%)
Nasdaq 1,387.72 Down 53.51 (3.71%)
S&P 500 743.33 Down 26.72 (3.47%)
10-Yr Bond 2.777% Up 0.005
NYSE Volume 7,575,876,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,076,772,875

4:30 pm : Monday's session began on a promising note as stocks opened with solid gains following word the government may help Citigroup increase its tangible equity, while several government agencies pledged their support for the banking system as Treasury prepares to begin a series of stress tests for banks. The upward move was short-lived, though, as participants refocused on the lack of concrete solutions for the broader banking system.

In the early going, stocks were up 1%. Participants reacted positively to word the government may convert its preferred Citigroup (C 2.14, +0.19) shares into common shares. Though the government could hold as much as a 40% stake in the company, which would drastically dilute existing shareholders, such a move would bolster Citi's tangible equity and improve the bank's ability to absorb losses.

The announcement comes as Treasury's Capital Assistance Program is set to begin Wednesday. The plan aims to assess the health of banks.

Separately, government agencies pledged their support for a strong financial system in a joint statement. The government will provide temporary capital if it is unavailable from private sources. The announcement suggests the government will provide the banking system the capital it needs to survive, while helping to keep credit flowing so that economic conditions can recover.

Financial stocks reacted positively to the announcements, climbing to a gain of 4.6%, but finished with a 3.0% loss as investors recognized the plans may help bank capital ratios, but they won't solve their troubles.

To that point, CNBC reported AIG (AIG 0.53, -0.01) is in discussions with the government to secure additional funds so it can keep operating after next Monday, when it will report the largest loss in corporate history. Sources say the losses will be near, if not exceeding, $60 billion.

The broader market declined steadily throughout the session, closing down 3.5% at session lows. That handed the Dow its lowest intraday and closing levels since October 1997, taking out the lows set in the prior session. The S&P 500 settled just two points above its November lows. The Nasdaq remains 7% above its November lows.

Despite the broad losses, automakers gained as Ford (F 1.73, +0.15) reached a tentative agreement with the UAW regarding funding for benefits. Ford is expected to be able to use a mix of cash and stock. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal stated Treasury consultants are lining up funds in the event they are needed to finance bankruptcy at General Motors (GM 1.77, +0.00) or Chrysler.

There were neither market moving earnings announcements nor economic data this session. Tomorrow is also light on earnings and economic data, but Fed Chairman Bernanke will provide his semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee. He follows with a semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday. DJ30 -250.89 NASDAQ -53.51 SP500 -26.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 547/2.05 bln/2158 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 417/1.61 bln/2694

[Ghost Dog]

87. Bloomberg take, snipping:

By Lynn Thomasson

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a 12-year low, as concern that the deepening recession will erode earnings offset the government’s pledge to give more capital to banks.

...

The S&P 500 lost 3.5 percent to 743.33, its lowest close since April 1997. The six-day losing streak in the U.S. stock benchmark ranks as its longest since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 250.89 points, or 3.4 percent, to 7,114.78, its lowest since May 1997. The Russell 2000 Index lost 4 percent.

...

The S&P 500 Information Technology Index, which has lost 8.7 percent this year for the second-best performance among 10 industries, fell 4.4 percent today.

...

“We’re still being governed by how deep the recession will be,” said Mike Ryan, head of wealth management research for the Americas at UBS Financial Services Inc. “There just don’t seem to be any clear signs that some of the problems have run their course.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.3 percent today and Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 0.9 percent. Yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes were little changed at 2.78 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data, as the government prepared to sell a record amount of notes this week.

Health-Care Retreat

Humana Inc. fell the most since March after the U.S. government proposed fee increases of less than 1 percent to companies providing subsidized health coverage for the elderly.

S&P 500 health-care stocks collectively lost 2.5 percent. Humana tumbled 24 percent to $30.83 for the biggest drop in the S&P 500. The second-largest provider of U.S.-funded health insurance said the new rates, scheduled for 2010, would have a “significant adverse impact.”

General Electric Co. retreated 5.7 percent to $8.85, the lowest price since March 1995. The company’s dividend is “highly vulnerable to a material cut” as its finance arm GE Capital may require additional equity, Deutsche Bank analyst Nigel Coe wrote in a Feb. 22 note.

Disappearing Dividends

The fastest reduction in U.S. dividends since 1955 is depriving investors of the only thing that gave stocks an advantage over government bonds in the last century.

U.S. equities returned 6 percent a year on average since 1900, inflation-adjusted data compiled by the London Business School and Credit Suisse Group AG show. Take away dividends and the annual gain drops to 1.7 percent, compared with 2.1 percent for long-term Treasury bonds, according to the data.

...

Governments across the world are stepping up measures to stem the worst global recession since World War II. Bank of America and Citigroup have received a combined $90 billion in U.S. aid in four months.

‘Firmly Behind’ Banks

Federal officials said today that they will make sure banks have enough capital to boost lending and spur economic growth. The joint statement from regulators, including the Federal Reserve and Treasury, promised they will stand “firmly behind the banking system during this period of financial strain.”

...

The financial crisis will be harder to end than the Great Depression and may force banks to be nationalized, “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Rare and unforeseen events are known as “black swans” after Taleb’s 2007 book, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.” The financial crisis isn’t one, he said.

“The black swan for me would be for us to emerge out of this unscathed and return to normalcy,” Taleb said. Compared with the Great Depression, this crisis is “very different, and it requires much more drastic action.”

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=akf.aRGsNZgQ&refer=stocks

[Tansy_Gold]

92. $60B worth of what?

Is this airy fairy nonsense money we're talkin' about? CDOs and CDSes that used to be worth billions if not trillions and now they're worth zilch?

If it was a gain on paper, it can be a loss on paper.


I'm tired of this bullshit.



Tansy Gold

[Demeter]

88. Time to Toboggan Down That Slippery Slope of a Dow

What a slide....

[Individualist]

98. Asian markets are also down tonight

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Asian-shares-tumble-on-rb-14447031.html

[TheWatcher]

101. I am still thinking they have to bounce this at some point.

Things are deteriorating too rapidly.

Overnight Futures point to that again (+53), but last night they were well above +121 and we saw how that worked out.

Once again they are trying to stem the tide in Asia, but it's having minimal effect. We'll see if Europe follows suit.

Of course if they CAN'T, even if they want to, then the mask is about to be taken off, and the truth about what we are really facing is no longer going to be able to be hidden behind electronic buy programs and propaganda.

Things are just getting plain weird out there.

I would expect Obama will be addressing the Nation in Prime Time in the near future, to at the very least announce the Nationalization of The Banks.

That is speculation on my part, and as always, to be take with a shaker full of salt.

Meanwhile, in News you will NOT see reported here in the US, because we are behind the Ignorant Curtain, The Natives Are Getting Restless, so to speak:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1150062/Britons-flee-French-island-Guadeloupe-rioters-turn-white-families.html

There is massive unrest going on all over the world.

Iceland's Government has fallen, and the country is in complete chaos. Not too long ago, Iceland had one of the highest standards of living in the World, and now it's in turmoil, and on the brink of collapse.

The hour is definitely getting late.