STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 23 February (#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday February 23, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 336
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY...
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 73 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 125 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 337
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 821
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 20, 2004

Dow... 10,619.03 -45.70 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq... 2,037.93 -8.03 (-0.39%)
S&P 500... 1,144.11 -2.95 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.10% +0.05 (+1.14%)
Gold future... 398.00 -12.30 (-3.00%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
"A Look At The XAU"

Notice on the daily chart of the XAU below, that I have marked each trading cycle low, since the March 2003 rally, with a “t.” As you can see, this cycle runs approximately one month in duration. Now, look at how each of the trading cycle lows, between March 2003 and December 2003, occurred at a level above the previous trading cycle low. Also, notice that during this same time period the trading cycle tops all occurred above the previous trading cycle top. This is all indicative of a bullish pattern.

However, this bullish pattern was broken in January 2004. The breaking of this pattern has consequently turned the cyclical structure of this index bearish. This occurred with the move below the December 2003 trading cycle low. Notice that after that break, the next trading cycle low, which occurred in January 2004, occurred well below the December low. Additionally, we have moved into the timeframe for the current trading cycle top and it has thus far fallen short of the previous trading cycle top. If we have in fact seen the current trading cycle top at these levels, it should set the stage for another move down to retest the most recent trading cycle lows. If the most recent trading cycle low is violated on this retest, such violation will serve as further confirmation that the bearish forces are still dominant in the gold sector.

<cut>
So, the point that I want to make here is that we have already seen a breakdown of the shorter-term trading cycles in the XAU. This indicates that the XAU is leading this time around. Also, remember that we have just completed the 13th week of the current 20-week cycle in the DJIA and that it should be approaching a top in the not too distant future. So, when we combine the fact that the XAU has thus far been the weakest and the fact that the 20-week cycle low still lies ahead for the DJIA, it is hard not to at least consider the possibility that more weakness in the XAU could still lie ahead. Also, the cyclical structure of the XAU will remain bearish until we see either a higher trading cycle top and/or a higher trading cycle low. So, until this happens, we must leave the door open for further downside in the XAU.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Bubble Jr. On Its Deathbed? by Mark M. Rostenko

After nearly a year of relentless gains, is the stock market finally topping out? Has the “mini-bull” market (which I continue to believe is little more than a secondary reaction in a primary, secular bear market) finally run its course? While you’d be hard-pressed to find a bearish comment in the mainstream financial press, from a technical perspective the market is flashing some major danger signs.

<cut>
What’s different this time? The confluence of factors: all the bearish ducks are lining up in a row. The S&P 500 is trading at excessively high valuations typical of bull market extremes while bumping up against a hugely significant technical resistance level:1161.If there’s a good place for the market to back off from, this is certainly it!All the while, market sentiment is at extremes, most everyone is bullish but we’re seeing large divergences between key indices.

Does this mean we’re most certainly witnessing the formation of a major top? Not necessarily. There are no certainties in this game. But I believe that we’re still in a primary, long-term secular bear market. Within that context, 50% counter-trend moves are not unusual nor do they signify the emergence of new bull markets. Today we find ourselves at a critical juncture that stands a very good chance of marking the end of the secondary, countertrend “mini-bull” market and the resumption of the primary, long-term bear market.

Will it burst? Count on it.

[54anickel]

21. I find this a bit disturbing in light of what I posted in #11.

This is just IMHO, but it concerns me that there is perhaps a bit of an attempt to take advantage of ordinary folks for a bit of fleece. Probably nothing to it other than coincidence, but there's that bit of paranoia, CT in me that calls for caution.

snip>
Bullish action should bring in new buyers. Instead, this past week we saw the market probe into new high territory and then reverse sharply. The absence of buyers emboldened sellers who appear to be taking to the task with a vengeance.

Bullish sentiment is at major extremes. Market Vane Bullish Consensus recently reported that 70% of market advisors are bullish. That's a two-year high and it stands well above the 61% reached in January of 2000.You remember 2000, don’t you? That was when the biggest stock market bubble in history finally topped out and sent the Nasdaq skidding more than 80% while the S&P 500 lost half of its value over the next few years. And today market advisors are even MORE bullish than they were when the bubble topped out!

Individual investors are not any more rational these days. The AAII reports that 61% are bullish, well above the 47% observed last year. In terms of mutual fund inflows, that translated into $40.8 billion in January. Individual investors have once again grown recklessly bullish, throwing record amounts of capital at the markets. Sound like an emerging, healthy bull market to you?

I realize that some of that bump in the January in-flow is caused by the way some 401Ks are set up. It would be nice to know what percentage that is.

[ozymandius]

3. Japan's upturn clouded by deflation quagmire, expected US slowdown

TOKYO (AFP) - Japan's economy scored the highest growth among major nations in the December quarter but economists warned its heavy reliance on exports and stubborn deflation hindered it from leaving decade-old doldrums.

<cut>
Japan has a small window of opportunity, they said, to spur domestic demand by spreading the current export-led recovery in large-scale manufacturers to smaller firms and service sectors, given expectations the US economy, the world's largest consumer market, will slow in about a year.

<cut>
Japanese consumers have benefited from the lower prices in general and the emergence of 100-yen (dollar) stores that accompanied them, but deflation has also squeezed corporate profits, triggering broad-based salary cuts and layoffs.

story

[54anickel]

24. Question and notes....

Would some of the demand for Japanese exports (especially the machinery) be due to the US manufacturers that have relocated there? Wouldn't those be considered exports to China vs US?

This sounds familiar, are we looking at a future comparable to where Japan is now? Seems 0% interest hasn't helped them much.

Corporate investment is supported only by strong exports and demand for digital consumer electronics, raising the question of how Japan can boost and sustain consumer spending.

That has to come with regular pay hikes but overall salaries in Japan have stopped merely falling and are stagnant, because the bulk of economic output comes from non-manufacturers.

"In order to raise profits, non-manufacturing firms have to cut costs, including salaries, which means household income will not increase," Kono said.

snip>
"The Japanese economy has remained trapped in a deflationary cycle, in which non-manufacturers cannot increase sales, which prompts them to cut salaries and depress consumption, which in turn hurts their sales."

[ozymandius]

4. Fed Officials Say Jobs on Way Eventually

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A chorus of Federal Reserve (news - web sites) officials tried on Friday to reassure Americans that new jobs will emerge to replace the millions of jobs lost in recent years, but warned workers must add skills to stay competitive.

"There is a palpable unease that businesses and jobs are being drained from the United States, with potentially adverse consequences for unemployment and the standard of living of the average American," Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) told a Chamber of Commerce (news - web sites) group in Omaha, Nebraska.

<cut>
"Those imbalances have the potential to hamper the adjustment flexibility of our economy overall," Greenspan cautioned. "The single central action necessary to ameliorate these imbalances and their accompanying consequences for income inequality is to boost the skills, and thus earning potential, of those workers lower on the skill ladder."

story

BTW - Nevermind that they never mention what kind of training is necessary for people to find jobs. Nevermind that the Bush administration has cut funding for worker retraining and the Small Business Administration.

[UpInArms]

6. Hi Ozy! Do you think that

the training will involve learning how to say:

Would you like that supersized?


(edited for html)

[ozymandius]

7. OMG! How funny that you should mention "supersizing".

I read yesterday a story reporting the debate over whether or not to include a fast food assembly line (assembling a slab of meat, pickle, lettuce, bun) in the "manufacturing" sector. This way, the Bush admin could boost and boast about the number of "manufacturing" jobs.

[UpInArms]

8. it is quite rich, isn't it?

Do you think we will soon have to re-categorize other jobs too?

There will be the "clean bedpan makers" and the "renewed carpet" manufacturers.

How about the "lint from ritzy homes" manufactures?

[54anickel]

10. Good morning Ozy and UIA. Wasn't that a great article! I had to print

serveral copies out for the hubby to take to work. He wanted to post them on the boards as work.

[UpInArms]

20. here's that article for anyone who wants it :)

http://www.shortnews.com/start.cfm?id=37255&rubrik1=Politics&rubrik2=US%20Politics&rubrik3=All&sort=1&start=1

Bush Wants to Classify Fast Food Worker as a Manufacturing Job


The latest edition of the Economic Report of the President has questioned whether fast-food restaurants should be reclassified as manufacturers or continue to be part of the service sector. Congress currently has no answer.

This is comparing the making of a hamburger to making an automobile. N Gregory Mankiw, Council of Economic Advisers chairman, says this is "an important consideration" in setting economic policy. Fast-food jobs would be listed with industrial jobs.

"When a fast-food restaurant sells a hamburger, for example, is it providing a 'service' or is it combining inputs to 'manufacture' a product?" - report. Economist D Huether says this will make stats show more jobs in a declining part of the economy.

[54anickel]

26. Here's the one I printed up. Has a bit more details.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/02/20/politics/main601336.shtml

snip>
As first reported by The New York Times, the fast food issue is taken up on page 73 of the lengthy report in a special box headlined "What is manufacturing?"

snip>
But, the president's report notes, even the Census Bureau has acknowledged that its definition "can be somewhat blurry," with bakeries, candy stores, custom tailors and tire retreading services considered manufacturing.

"Mixing water and concentrate to produce soft drinks is classified as manufacturing," the president's report reads. "However, if that activity is performed at a snack bar, it is considered a service."

snip>
Instead, it concludes that the fuzziness of the manufacturing definition is problematic, because policies — like, for example, a tax credit for manufacturers — may miss their target if the definition is overly broad or narrow.

[54anickel]

25. JMHO, what always seems to be missing in the discussions of the

benefits of free-trade is the difference between the economic theory and principals of free-trade and the "bastardization" of those principals in NAFTA. So, when Greenspins says, as he has in the past, that jobs will be created as they always have in the past, he overlooks what is not the same. He brings up that these are the same arguments that were brought up regarding Japan back in the 80's. I don't think the situation is similar, thanks to the underlying principals and objectives of NAFTA. I think it is a totally different beast. But again, JMHO.

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.83 Change -0.41 (-0.47%)

related articles

Dollar rally loses steam after technical shakeout

http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=4414504&newsType=usDollarRpt&menuType=currencies

LONDON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The dollar came off a three-month high against the yen hit earlier on Monday and eroded the session's gains versus the euro after a broad-based dollar recovery at the end of last week ran out of steam.

After months of heavy selling, the dollar rocketed about two percent higher against major currencies on Friday, led by a move up against the yen after news Japan had tightened security as more troops left for Iraq.

But traders said the security news was merely a catalyst for a long overdue adjustment after the greenback's tumble to record lows on the euro, three-year lows on the yen and multi-year troughs versus other currencies this month.

Now the focus seemed to be shifting back to concerns about U.S. current acount and budget deficits as well as prospects of continuing low interest rates there, analysts say.

"People were giving up dollar short positions, but there is little out there that underpins the dollar from a fundamental point of view," said Mark McFarland, currency strategist at UBS.

<snip>

"(But) people are not putting on fresh dollar positions because the dollar is not worth buying from a fundamental point of view. The current account deficit is likely to get worse and Washington's political will is to keep the dollar weak."

<snip>

As long as U.S. interest rates remain low, global capital is likely to continue to shun the dollar and head to higher-yielding currencies, some traders say.

...more...

and

Gold ticks higher as dollar dips

http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/23/markets/gold.reut/

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold prices inched higher Monday to drift just under $400 an ounce as last Friday's jump in the U.S. dollar limited buying in the precious metal for investors seeking havens.

Dealers said the market had garnered some support from buying at current levels, but all eyes were expected to stay glued on the dollar for definitive direction.

Analysts said the market looked set for a choppy ride this week in tandem with the dollar, as players were still convinced that the U.S. currency's overall downtrend remained intact.

<snip>

"I suspect the pattern of trading will be choppy, not just for today but for the coming weeks because it does look as though the trend decline in the dollar is still there," HSBC metals analyst Alan Williamson said.

...more...

Good Morning Ozy and all you Marketeers!

I guess it's a wait and see day :hi:

[ozymandius]

9. Treasuries Idle While Watching Dollar

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Treasuries hovered near the unchanged mark in quiet trade on Monday as a rare bout of strength from the dollar was seen curbing foreign central bank appetite for U.S. debt.

Traders also were waiting to see what Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) says in a speech on "Understanding Household Debt Obligations" at 9:15 a.m. Greenspan depressed bond prices on Friday with upbeat comments on the employment outlook, saying jobs growth should come soon.

<cut>
Traders were concerned the dollar's bounce, if sustained, would lessen the need for Asian central banks to intervene, leaving them with fewer dollars to buy Treasuries. Overseas central banks have provided crucial support to the market in recent months, picking up $45 billion of Treasuries so far this year.

If those banks do curb their appetite for bonds, it could spell trouble for Treasury's auction of new two-year notes on Wednesday, which dealers expect to total $26 billion. At the last sale in January indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks, took a hefty 42 percent of the offer and anything less this time will alarm the market.

story

[54anickel]

11. So, you want to grow up to be a currency trader? I stumbled across

this Forex site over the week-end.

http://www.forex-training.com/hedging.htm

Then last night, in one of my insomniac stupors, I saw an infomercial. It was for some software/seminar package to teach you how to make BIG BUCKS in the stock market. :eyes:

You can practice trading with the software and get "Really good at it" before loosing your arse on the real thing. What a joke! The testimonials were supposedly folks that had dead-end, low skill jobs, had never invested in the stock market (except one who lost nearly everything in the market). Now they are all making thousands of dollars a day! Loses never came up.

They must be desperate to get new money in the market as they prepare for the exodus of "smart" money.
:puke:

[UpInArms]

12. Greenspan says U.S. household debt not troubling

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?storyID=4415671&type=bondsNews

WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday that U.S. consumers seemed in generally good financial shape, able to carry more debt comfortably because they are cushioned by rising home prices.

"Overall, the household sector seems to be in good shape," Greenspan said in prepared remarks to the Credit Union National Association.

<snip>

"So long as financial intermediation continues to expand, both household debt and assets are likely to rise faster than income," he said, but added that did not necessarily imply a heavier debt burden.

Well I guess that settles it. It is now an accepted practice to "spend" your house.

:wtf:

[ozymandius]

13. Oh great! Virtual money.

So you can go out and spend your house and forever cement our legacy as a debtor nation. At which point do we become "upside down" in non-liquid assets?

[54anickel]

16. Virtual money to tide things over while we wait for virtual jobs. In the

mean time, if you loose your "Real" job, you can "manufacture" burgers and get virtual money from those credit cards to make the payments for that virtual money you just bet the farm on.
What a moron! :crazy:

[Frodo]

17. I don't think that's quite the point.

There are two big issues in personal debt.

1) How does it compare to your net worth? and
2) How do the monthly payments compare to your monthly income.


With #1 - it isn't wise to "spend your house", but there is no question that someone else buying your house wouldn't be putting 50% down, so borrowing some of that equity doesn't put you in a worse situation than the average Joe. It can improve things if used correctly.

With #2 - Lower interest rates mean that even the larger dollar amounts borrowed still have lower payments than what you might have paid a few years ago for the smaller debt. That really DOES matter.


Conversations on public debt rotate too heavily on total dollars owed, but $100,000 mortgage at 7.5% is harder to live with than $125,000 mortgage at 5.75%.

Lots of people have found over the last several years that they now have a positive net worth and have paid off all their other debts and STILL have a lower mortgage payment than they had before. This just isn't a "bad" thing.

However, if you don't develop any fiscal discipline, you can still end up like the guy who takes out a "consolidation" loan to pay off all his cards and then just runs them back up.

[UpInArms]

27. I think this thread will help

for a deeper understanding regarding Greenspin's statements.

(which imho encourages a bubble in mortgage financing and inflation of value)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x380109

[54anickel]

30. But don't forget, Greenspin admitted he cannot determine a bubble

in the making. So when it pops he'll claim he didn't see this one coming either.

[54anickel]

29. To Greenspins credit, although not much. At least he has concluded the

household surveys are not giving an accurate picture of unemployment.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/22/business/yourmoney/22view.html

snip>
Unfortunately for the optimists, the Federal Reserve has just thrown cold water on the household data. It concludes that the gloomy payroll data is essentially accurate and that the household survey is probably off base.

"I wish I could say the household survey were the more accurate,'' Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, said in his testimony at a House hearing on Feb. 11. "Everything we've looked at suggests that it's the payroll data which are the series which you have to follow.''

snip>
The Fed's conclusion was that the household survey's results have been inflated by overestimates of population growth.

Because the household survey is a sample, the Bureau of Labor Statistics infers the total change in jobs by multiplying the ratio of employed to unemployed workers in the household survey by its estimate of the total population. If the population estimate is too high, the estimated number of jobs will also be too high.

snip>
Indeed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics lowered its population estimate in January. Plugging the new estimate into the previous household surveys, the bureau found nearly half the apparent increase in jobs during the last three years vanished.

[Frodo]

34. I'm not sure that's quite what he said.

The two surveys measure very different things. The household survey gives a MUCH more "accurate" picture of Unemployment because the establishment survey doesn't address unemployment at all. it tells you how many jobs there are. If shrub "creates" a million new jobs at McDonald's and they are all taken by people who need second jobs to pay the bills (I know, I know, bear with me here), the establishment survey will show the rise in jobs, but the household data will show no change. In this case, the household data would be more "accurate" for measuring unemployment.

I think "accurate" is an unfortunate term. Since both are likely to be quite accurate for what they measure. The establishment survey is certainly more "precise", but both would be INaccurate if used to measure in the other's bailiwick. You simply can't use the household survey (as you indicate) to measure the number of jobs out there. It isn't up to the task. And the establishment survey has no data to emasure how many people WANT jobs.

But that doesn't mean it's useless. It just measures a different thing. It could, for instance, be indicating a reduced NEED for some employment. Perhaps some people are spending their real estate "income" and - combined with some tax credits (for children?) - don't NEED a second breadwinner.

[54anickel]

35. Interesting take. Did you read the entire article? n/t

[Frodo]

37. Of course not!

What kind of fun would that be?

Ok, now I've read it. I don't see what it changes?

The article makes a few mistakes. First, the numbers shrub has been touting lately (# of jobs "created" in the last 4-5 months) are FROM the establishment survey. I haven't seen ANY claim that jobs were created based on the household survey until I read that Nickles quote. Only that the unemployment rate had gone down. Those are two different things.

There's also no question that there are lots more "self employed" people than there were ten years ago (I considered it a GOOD thing until the tech bubble burst). The estabblishment survey has no way to measure those people and every year that goes by makes that less and less "accurate" for measuring UNemployment.

""Everything we've looked at suggests that it's the payroll data which are the series which you have to follow." This is news? Of COURSE it's what they need to follow. Because they need a measurement of jobs... NOT a measurement of how many people WANT jobs and don't have them. There COULD be a shift in the number of people who NEED to work.


"The household survey shows that we're at an all-time high in employment" Nickles - THAT is even MORE ridiulous than trying to use the establishment data to estimate UNemployment.

[54anickel]

39. Probably changes nothing for what you stated. Other than your subject

line, "I'm not sure that's what he said."

It is what he said. Perhaps you meant your subject line to mean, "that's not how I take it" or "I disagree with him".

I took your subject line that I was putting words into his mouth.

on edit:
Perhaps you are taking issue that I used the term unemployment vs jobloss/job creation.

[Frodo]

40. It wasn't the quote that was I questioned but your interpretation of it.

You said - "At least he has concluded the household surveys are not giving an accurate picture of unemployment."

I said "I'm not sure that's quite what he said". I stick by that...


""I wish I could say the household survey were the more accurate" Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, said in his testimony at a House hearing on Feb. 11. "Everything we've looked at suggests that it's the payroll data which are the series which you have to follow."

Since the payroll data doesn't MEASURE unemployment (doesn't even TRY to measure it), he can't be saying it is "more accurate" than the household data for that purpose. It clearly IS MORE ACCURATE than the household survey at measuring EMPLOYMENT because the household survey doesn not measure THAT (except by extension using assumptions).

[54anickel]

41. "EMPLOYMENT" Doesn't that mean job loss/ job creation?

Which was what I was trying to clarify in that last point. Yes, I should not have used the word unemployment.

I will grant you that I was incorrect in using the incorrect term.
I am happy for you and hope you enjoy your victory of semantics.

[UpInArms]

14. market numbers and blather

9:57 am EST

Dow 10,639.03 +20.00 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,032.51 -5.42 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 1,145.06 +0.95 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.088% -0.010

9:45AM: In-line with futures indications, the cash market is off to a higher open... The market is rebounding from last week's pullback, which marked the fifth consecutive down week for the Nasdaq... Generally speaking, the market has been trading in a whipsaw fashion over the past month, which is likely to continue over the short term, as explained in Briefing.com's The Big Picture column... Accordingly, long-term investors should stay in the market, but take a cautious, conservative approach...

[ozymandius]

15. Here's how we look at 9:59.

Dow 10,635.77 +16.74 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,032.79 -5.14 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,145.24 +1.13 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.086% -0.012

[UpInArms]

19. market numbers at 10:30 am EST

Dow 10,596.85 -22.18 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,022.25 -15.68 (-0.77%)
S&P 500 1,142.19 -1.92 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.079% -0.019

[UpInArms]

18. Labor says U.S. PPI data won't be released today

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/02/23/rtr1271503.html

WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - A U.S. Labor Department official said on Monday that it was not publishing its January producer prices report today and said she did not know when it will be issued.

"We have no plans to release the PPI (Producer Price Index) today," said Marta Norton, an economist with the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Asked whether she knew when the report would be released, Norton replied: "I have no idea when we're going to release it."

The report was originally scheduled to be issued last Thursday but the department said it was delayed because of difficulties in updating seasonal adjustment factors.

Well, well, well.

If they can't make the numbers look good - just don't release them?

This is a pretty blatant attempt to conceal the news (imho)

[54anickel]

31. The seasonal adjustments alone can no longer hide the real inflation?

Tweak a little here and there. Waiting for an announcement that they'll be changing how those stats are evaluated next. Mess with the definitions in the PPI, the definition of manufacturing in the employment data, the definition of debt and what have you got? One hell of a booming economy. :eyes:

Greenspin worries about how history will treat him. Perhaps his name will be buried much like many of the Fed Chairmen of the past when a drastic change took place in monetary policy. His legacy will be the misjudgements of his tenor that lead to some drastic and significant change.

[ozymandius]

22. 10:57 numbers (all red) and blather

Dow 10,603.40 -15.63 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,025.22 -12.71 (-0.62%)
S&P 500 1,143.54 -0.57 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.077% -0.021


U.S. stocks lower as blue chips erase early gains

Blue chips join Nasdaq in negative territory
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks were lower Monday as blue chips followed technology stocks into negative territory, as investors succumbed to the temptation to lock in gains after a strong run-up in the latest earnings season.

"The market is a little tired," said Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan, Beck & Co. "and you're going to see it trading sideways until there is a new catalyst in the form of real evidence of jobs growth in the U.S. economy."

<cut>
Currencies

In currencies, the U.S dollar retreated from three-month highs against the Japanese yen and three-week highs against the euro as low U.S. interest rates and trade deficit factors continue to hang over the currency.

The euro eked out a 0.1 percent gain to $1.25758 against the U.S. dollar. The greenback was earlier trading at $1.2450, its best euro value in three weeks. The British pound was up 0.1 percent against the greenback at $1.8637.

more...

[UpInArms]

23. Warning: Downsizing May Be Dangerous to Health

http://www.wtopnews.com/index.php?nid=106&sid=172520

(scroll down to last paragraph)

A Finnish study suggests company downsizing may increase the rate of illness and risk of death from cardiovascular disease among workers who remain. The researchers studied 22,430 municipal employees in four Finnish towns who kept their jobs during a national recession between 1991 and 1993. Rates of sickness-related absences and deaths from heart disease were monitored for seven years. Major downsizing -- a staff reduction of more than 18 percent -- was associated with increased sick days among permanent, though not part-time, employees. These employees also were twice as likely to die from cardiovascular disease, particularly during the first four years after the downsizing, than those in companies that did not cut their workforce.

[54anickel]

32. Burn out, stress regarding "more with less" mantra, and stress worrying

about whether you're next to be downsized. After a major downsizing the work environment also tends to get a bit more hostile and stressful as it becomes "every man for himself" in trying to stay off the "next to be downsized" list. Much back biting and brown nosing, shortcuts, less quality, etc. But the productivity numbers always look good. Usually, what you're producing ends up being of lesser quality but higher quantity. Been there, done that, seen that several times in my lifetime.

[ozymandius]

28. 12:13 and the Dow, Nasdaq taking a header

Dow 10,564.29 -54.74 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,008.79 -29.14 (-1.43%)
S&P 500 1,137.67 -6.44 (-0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.079% -0.019

[54anickel]

33. 2:49 numbers and blather

Dow 10,590.22 -28.81 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,004.40 -33.53 (-1.65%)
S&P 500 1,139.37 -4.74 (-0.41%)
30-yr Bond 4.926% -0.027

2:30PM: The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have dipped to new session lows since the last update, while the Dow continues to trade near its earlier-established lows... In its decline, the Nasdaq briefly dipped into the red for the year, but held above the psychologically-significant 2000 mark... The bulk of the sectors continue to trade in the red, with leadership to the upside remaining difficult to find... In the commodities market, the price of gold is rebounding from an almost 3-month low established on Friday...
Specifically, the price of gold rose $1.30 to $399.30/oz as the dollar retreated relative to the euro and the yen in today's session... The price of crude oil is $0.14 higher at $34.40/bbl... Analysts suspect US fuel supplies will stay at sufficient levels for the remainder of winter...NYSE Adv/Dec 1213/2012, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 916/2200

[54anickel]

36. Currency games and the devauled dollar policy myth. Do you think this

guy has a point, that Snow's calling for a lower dollar is just to pacify manufacturers? This seems like a dangerous game.

http://www.republicons.org/view_article.asp?RP_ARTICLE_ID=1071

snip>
Conservative financial analyst Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics warned that the effects of monetary policy cannot always be controlled by the causes. “ Snow always says he believes in a ‘strong dollar’ policy. And indeed my administration contacts assure me that he really does. They tell me that the administration is just trying to appear to be working for a weaker dollar, so that the Midwest lobbyists think they're ‘doing something.’ That makes lobbying our trading partners to strengthen their currencies far worse that a case of ‘be careful what you wish for.’ It's a case of ‘be careful what you pretend to wish for.’ That's worse, because you just might get it — and in the meantime the world thinks you're somewhere between a fool and a fake (maybe both),” he wrote on September 29.

“In the end, it's a reality that's been proven over and over that you can't affect the amount of trade between two countries by playing games with their currency exchange rates. But while you're waiting to have no long-term effect, you cause no end of short-term mischief as the values of everything denominated in both currencies have to undergo painful readjustments. And when it's all over, there aren't going to be any additional manufacturing jobs in the Midwest than there would have been anyway.”

And if large US corporations and multinational firms are buoyed by the weakened dollar who suffers; the US consumers, according to Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX). “Unlike Warren Buffett, most Americans are stuck with their U.S. dollars. Average people, particularly those who depend on savings or fixed incomes to fund their retirement years, cannot abide the continued devaluation of our currency. A true strong-dollar policy would require constriction of the money supply and higher interest rates, both of which would cause some short-term pain for the American economy. In the long run, however, such a correction is the only alternative to the continued erosion of our dollars,” Paul wrote on December 8.

He also warned of the perilous slide in confidence that weak dollar may affect. “The problem is that faith can be shaken, and the precipitous drop in the dollar shows how investors around the globe are very concerned about American deficits and debt. When government policies in a fiat system are the sole measure of a currency’s worth, the currency markets act as a reliable barometer of how those policies are viewed around the world. Politicians often manage to fool voters and the media, but they rarely fool the financial markets over time. When investors lack faith in the U.S. dollar, they really lack faith in the economic policies of the U.S. government,” he concluded.

more....

[54anickel]

38. Closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,609.62 -9.41 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,007.52 -30.41 (-1.49%)
S&P 500 1,140.99 -3.12 (-0.27%)
30-yr Bond 4.917% -0.036

Close: The market spent the bulk of the session in negative territory, with the blue-chip averages showing moderate losses and the Nasdaq spearheading the decline and closing more than 1.5% lower for the session... Notably, after closing below its 50-day simple moving average last Friday, the Nasdaq continued to struggle with the technically-significant level in today's session...

The tech-composite's inability to lift above its 50-day simple moving average (at 2043) and its retreat into losing territory for the year, as well as below the psychologically-significant 2000 mark on several occasions throughout the session, limited the Nasdaq's and the blue-chip averages' upside potential, resulting in the fourth consecutive down session for the major indices... Leadership to the upside was difficult to come by, while laggards of note included the hardware, internet, networking, software, semiconductor, electronic manufacturing services, storage, aerospace/defense, gold, broadcasting & TV, broker/dealer, transportation and airline sectors...

Overall, today's action was a continuation of the whipsaw-like trade seen through the bulk of the past month and which Briefing.com expects to continue (please see The Big Picture column for more details)... Accordingly, long-term investors should maintain exposure to the stock market, but practice a cautious, conservative investment approach... Elsewhere, the bond market closed the session higher, with the 10-year note up +14/32, bringing its yield down to 4.04%...