Swine flu may be less potent than first feared

[L. Coyote]

Source: Associated Press

Mike Stobbe And David B. Caruso – 29 mins ago

The swine flu outbreak that has alarmed the world for a week now appears less ominous, with the virus showing little staying power in the hardest-hit cities and scientists suggesting it lacks the genetic fortitude of past killer bugs. President Barack Obama even voiced hope Friday that it may turn out to be no more harmful than the average seasonal flu.

In New York City, which has the most confirmed swine flu cases in the U.S. with 49, swine flu has not spread far beyond cases linked to one Catholic school. In Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak, very few relatives of flu victims seem to have caught it.

A flu expert said he sees no reason to believe the virus is particularly lethal. And a federal scientist said the germ's genetic makeup lacks some traits seen in the deadly 1918 flu pandemic strain and the more recent killer bird flu.

Still, it was too soon to be certain what the swine flu virus will do. .................

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090502/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu

[kestrel91316]

1. And if we are all VERY VERY lucky, it will stay that way.......

[Igel]

14. Nah.

That implies that we expect the random swine flu virus to mutate to a truly dangerous form. Most don't.

Unless we're very, very unlucky it'll stay that way.

I'd like to know, eventually, exactly how lethal the strain is, and whether it's behavior in Mexico is different from its behavior in the US. And if there's a difference, how to account for it in an honest way.

[L. Coyote]

19. In 1918, people were healthy in the morning, and dead by sundown. Big difference!!

Read up on the symptoms and the speed of demise in 1918 flu.
This is a very, very different situation. People are not projectile sneezing blood a few hours after becoming symptomatic..

[LeftyMom]

2. Ya think?

[Happyhippychick]

3. How many more nanoseconds before the media comes up with something else for us to panic about?

Did it happen while I was typing?

[Just-plain-Kathy]

10. Yes, last week we were talking about holding Bush accountable for torture...

...now we're talking about a flu.

[geomon666]

4. THANK YOU!

Bout friggin time the news caught up with common sense.

[rtassi]

5. Not so common as it turns out! n/t

[Mike 03]

6. It is less potent. Just because this is called a "pandemic" does mean it will be a

replay of 1918. In fact, it looks like it may not be that bad unless it smolders until next winter.

[Mojorabbit]

7. South America

is starting their flu season. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Also I love these articles as they always add the caveat, In this one it is "Still, it was too soon to be certain what the swine flu virus will do."
If it is too soon to be certain than one should not be making predictions.

[Divine Discontent]

13. EXCELLENT POINT! eom

[Psephos]

8. This is catastrophic news...for cable news outlets n/t

[junior college]

9. This is very bad news for all the people

who insist that the swine flu is going kill us all.

[celestina]

12. It seems to be lethal to Mexicans only...

and even if the mortality is not as high as initially reported...
attention should be paid to the practices and higiene of the "pig farms"

please check this pictures... Note: they are very graphic!


http://suburbiodeimagen.blogspot.com/2009/04/contaminacion-de-granjas-carroll-de.html

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_WoWmr6NjW2I/SeIu35JpHlI/AAAAAAAAAJM/WFER0hnGiLQ/s1600-h/Biodigestores+de+Granjas+Carroll+5-sh+(1).jpg

and if there is no connection to the influenza as they say...this could be the reason why they did not allow any inspection to the farms.

[ohheckyeah]

11. That's just not possible

as we are already geared up for a pandemic. ;-)

Good news!

[Mojorabbit]

15. Confusing messages

http://www.oregonlive.com/health/index.ssf/2009/05/swine_flu_smolders_while_scien.html
Swine flu smolders while scientists keep watch
by Joe Rojas-Burke, The Oregonian
Friday May 01, 2009, 8:28 PM
The swine flu outbreak persists at a smoldering stage: It might die down to nothing, or it might flare up into a pandemic causing widespread illness around the world. No one can predict.

On Friday, government health officials and infectious disease experts reported some signs that the new virus may pose a lesser threat.
snip
Amid much uncertainty, here's what to expect in the coming days:

Confusing warnings about risks: Political leaders and medical authorities are struggling to balance the need to alert the public and the need to avoid panic. It's politically treacherous because a worst-case pandemic remains unlikely but would have severe consequences if it happens.

snip
For now, scientists don't know enough to make accurate predictions about how the new virus will behave. And in different people, flu tends to cause drastically different degrees of sickness, from mild sniffles to acute lung failure and death. Flu viruses also mutate rapidly, setting the stage for rapid and unpredictable shifts in infectious capability and harm.

"We're trying to understand the severity of this virus at a pretty early stage," said Dr. Anne Schuchat, interim deputy director of the CDC's science and public health program. "It's like trying to estimate a baseball player's batting average the first week of the season."

[PaulaFarrell]

16. Oh dear

what will the news shows hyperventilate about now? probably the economuy again...wish they could work themselves up into the same lather about climate change

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

17. Someone tell Biden.

[FarCenter]

18. In any case it is an interesting test

A lot will be learned about speed of detection, probability of contagion, rate of spread, controls on international travel, and the effectiveness of "social distancing" stragegies.

All of which will be useful for the next time.

Not that this one is at all over yet.

[dipsydoodle]

20. Somebody had better tell Poo

[Raksha]

21. I've suspected all along that swine flu was a media-driven manufactured panic.

It probably never was more dangerous than the average seasonal flu. The number of cases even in Mexico never seemed high enough to justify all the school closures, etc. Some schools are closed in my area (SoCal) and there doesn't seem to be any good reason for it.