Swine flu no worse than regular flu, Napolitano says

[steven johnson]

Source: CNN

UPDATED: 07:13 PM EDT 05.04.09
 
WASHINGTON (CNN)
The swine flu virus that has sparked fear and precautions worldwide appears to be no more dangerous than the regular flu virus that makes its rounds each year, U.S. officials said Monday.

"What the epidemiologists are seeing now with this particular strain of U.N. is that the severity of the disease, the severity of the flu -- how sick you get -- is not stronger than regular seasonal flu," Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said Monday as the worldwide number of confirmed cases of swine flu -- technically known as 2009 H1N1 virus -- topped 1,085.

The flu has been blamed for 26 deaths: 25 in Mexico and one in the United States, according to the World Health Organization.

Still, Napolitano noted, the seasonal flu results in "hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations" and roughly 35,000 fatalities each year in the United States. There are still concerns that the virus could return in the fall, in the typical flu season, as a stronger strain.



Read more: http://m.cnn.com/cnn/lt_ne/lt_ne/detail/296511;jsessionid=83F19402B77A3E9EF33097C30F3EC361.live7i

[aquart]

1. Hallelujah.

Let it stay that way.

[Downwinder]

11. So it will only kill 36,000

Is that in addition to the regular flu?

[dipsydoodle]

17. May depend

on the outcome of a necessary decision regarding manufacture of flu vaccines.

If they decide to manufacture a vaccine in bulk it may become necessary to dump all production of the existing vaccine for the current flu types against which it protects. So - deaths from current types excluding the new one could escalate with a particularly adverse affect on the elderly.

[Downwinder]

20. Putting it that way, I think I would prefer to get in on this wave.

[wtbymark]

2. let's just hope the fall version is just as whimpy

and let's not even mention the word 'Pandemic' unless there are 1million reported dead. Since 412BC influenza epidemics have only been catagorized as pandemics when more than 1 million people died. Get off the 24hr news cycle folks.

[kestrel91316]

4. The WHO definition of "pandemic" has nothing to do with numbers of dead.

You probably don't want to be dictating to public health people how to define their terms, as THEY are the experts.

[Rage for Order]

10. These people were the experts?

Seriously? Because if the reaction to this flu is considered to be "dead-on balls accurate", I'd hate to see the results when they screw up. It looks like everyone predicted the worst-case scenario just in case the shit hit the fan. That way, if it turned into a big deal, they could say "See? I told you so." However, if it ended with a whimper, as it is doing now, they could say "See? All of our preventative measures saved hundreds of thousands of lives!" Experts indeed :eyes:

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. I hope you and Napolitano are both right-

but if not, and we get a pandemic version of this flu in the fall, let's hope this "dry run" has prepared us all for what is yet to come, if not this year, somewhere down the road- it's not "if", but "when".

[hedgehog]

3. It's good to see world health agencies working together and responding quickly

to a threat. Call it a drill for when the real thing hits.

[kestrel91316]

5. She forgot to add the very important "at this time" part.

[Mojorabbit]

21. I agree

We are still very early into this. I don't think it is responsible to be making definitive pronouncements yet.

[Hannah Bell]

31. kind of like lots of people forgot to add "unconfirmed" to their death tallies.

[tuvor]

6. Yeah, well, she also says the 9/11 hijackers entered the USA from Canada.

[Skink]

7. It's not being severe enough is the scary part.

[KoKo]

9. It's wonderful to have a "tone of reason" in our new Administration...

on some issues we can breathe a sigh of relief...although we must ever keep vigilant.

Thanks Janet!

[Mojorabbit]

22. I don't think it is responsible

There is a fine line between trying to quell panic and fostering responsible public awareness. We are early on into this. Almost every infectious disease doc says it is mild so far but not to let our guard down as things can change. It is still spreading all over this country and the world and will be mutating as it goes along esp with south america starting it's flu season. The population still needs to be on guard and practicing good hygiene and we should still be trying to curtail the spread as much as possible. I see a concerted effort to downplay this and that is ok up to a point but it is almost going too far the past few days.

Already we have the WHO saying we may need to go to phase six esp if it starts spreading among people in Europe or Asia and the UN saying we are not going to go to phase six. I imagine a lot of political pressure is being put on the UN due to the economic fallout phase six would entail.

[nolabear]

12. As someone who has the non-swine variety right now

I can attest that it's bad enough. Next time I say "Oh, I'll just pass that flu shot by, somebody slap me.

But I'm glad it seems to be just regular, and I'm sorry regular is so bad.

And BOY are we a spooky world right now.

[texastoast]

14. Spooky, indeed

When the company the subject of this story:

http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009/02/27/8560781.html

Is making the next batch of vaccine.


http://www.prisonplanet.com/baxter-to-develop-swine-flu-vaccine-despite-bird-flu-scandal.html

. . .
As reported by multiple sources last month, including the Times of India, vaccines contaminated with deadly live H5N1 avian flu virus were distributed to 18 countries last December by a lab at an Austrian branch of Baxter.

It was only by providence that the batch was first tested on ferrets in the Czech Republic, before being shipped out for injection into humans. The ferrets all died and the shocking discovery was made.

. . .

And the U.S. MSM reports the story like this:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D97QDNFG0.htm

But a kudo to MSNBC

http://boards.msn.com/MSNBCboards/thread.aspx?threadid=989992

[dipsydoodle]

18. See #17 above.

"Next time I say "Oh, I'll just pass that flu shot by, somebody slap me." That option may not exist.

[Danchi]

13. Swine Flu Pandemic-The Real Deal

As with the "Bird Flu" that was hyped a few years ago and it never got off the ground, so shall the Swine Flu go the way of the wind.
The word Pandemic has been hyped way out of proportion but no one really has taken the time to really understand what that means.

Just What is a Pandemic Anyway?

A pandemic does not necessarily mean what you think it does, it is NOT black-plague carts being hauled through the streets piled high with dead bodies. Nor does it mean flesh eating zombies wandering the streets feeding on the living. All a pandemic means is that a new infectious disease is spreading throughout the world.

By definition, a "pandemic" is an epidemic that is geographically widespread. Fear-mongers are always careful to add the innuendo that millions of people could and probably will die, as in the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 that killed about 20 million people worldwide.

Two excellent articles on this media made frenzy can be found at:Critical Alert: The Swine Flu Pandemic – Fact or Fiction? http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/04/29/swine-flu.aspx and How to Deal with Swine Flu: Heeding the Mistakes of 1976 http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1894129,00.html.

Both articles put things into perspective.

[jwirr]

15. My daughter and her guy are on their way home from Mexico on

Wednesday and she called tonight because the kids told her that I was going to move out and go to my other daughters. The kids are sticking with me and so they are going to quarantine themselves for four days. We have 5 babies in the family and I have diabetes so we do not want to take any chances on complications.

[jus_the_facts]

16. My mom told me that her friends son had Swine Flu after a return trip from Cabo San Lucas, Mexico...

....he drove straight to the ER to a Bosie hospital after his return trip frin Cabo San Lucas and told them he had flu symptoms..he was told he DID have the Swine Flu...later he was told he did NOT have the Swine Flu after the CDC did testing on the swabs he'd submitted in the ER....so WTF is goin' on?! :argh:

His parents tried to play it off as....PRAYER SAVED HIS LIFE..they are fundy freaks...this is gettin' too freaky for me. :tinfoilhat:

[defendandprotect]

19. Yeah . . . what was killing Cheney was the TORTURE word raging on and on . . . !!!

6,000+ die every year from TB -- thanks Poppy Bush!

[Tx4obama]

23. regular and

swine flu has to be better than

ELEPHANT FLU
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/grantcart/187

[happygoluckytoyou]

24. "not worse than any other flu" love petunia

[Fly by night]

25. Sur-prize, sur-prize, sur-prize (not). Yet 24/7 coverage drives torture off the news.

Mission accomplished.

More people died at the hands of our "just doing our duty" torturers at Gitmo than have died world-wide from this outbreak. Plus, the mass hysteria adds its own distraction factor as well.

Swine slaughtered in Iran, Mexicans detained without due process in China, schools closing down all across the planet (right when final exams and graduation should be occurring), parents forced to miss work for days/weeks to care for their very healthy and not-at-risk children out of school, a rush to use Tamiflu inappropriately (thus accelerating the development of Tamiflu resistance by the pathogens it was developed to cure) --- the list goes on and on.

I got trapped in a flame-fest here at DU last week when I stated, as an epidemiologist, that it does us no good to allow diseases to be politicized and used as a distraction. The only good thing that came out of all that was that I added another person to my "ignore" list (only the fourth in four years here at DU.)

We do face real threats to our bodies and to our body politic. It is prudent to prepare to respond to both. It is also wise to keep our powder dry and our concerns a few notches below hysteria level.

Just my thoughts here in Tennessee, where our Republicans are marching forward in lock-step to prevent the removal of DREs from our voting process. Smiling, I am sure, through their white surgical masks.

God, I wish this country was what it sells itself as being.

[Mojorabbit]

26. As a retired nurse I disagree with you

This is basic public health and I am happy with how our govt responded. We are still early into this and as Dr Osterholm stated today, "People who tell you what flu is going to do have no idea what they're talking about," said Michael Osterholm, a flu expert at the University of Minnesota. "We have no idea."

[Fly by night]

27. You're welcome to disagree. As a practicing epidemiologist, I expected the current course.

In fact, the only thing that surprised me early on was the high number of fatalities reported from Mexico (over 100 H1N1 deaths reported early on), which would have resulted in a high case fatality rate (in excess of 10%) for flu. Thus, it was no surprise for me to learn that about 90% of the early Mexican fatalities had been misdiagnosed cases of pneumonia instead. I note that has been corrected in the past few days.

The media is obviously starving for non-Hollywood melt-down distractions. Even with the attempts to dial down the panic by DHS and CDCP, the panic is maintaining a life of its own. Such is life in our 24/7 noos cycle these days.

Mike Osterholm was one of the first to use the media interviews to dial down the H1N1 panic. That is to be expected, since he is one of our nation's most respected epidemiologists. I had the opportunity to get to know Mike a bit during our early days dealing with the HIV epidemic and I am glad to see him being used to dampen down the panic now. IMHO, the quote you used from him is not representative of the H1N1-related interviews I've seen and heard with him on NPR and PBS in the past week.

[Mojorabbit]

28. I have listened to many of his interviews

this week and he repeatedly maintains it is too early to tell what this virus will do. I trust his assessment.There needs to be a fine line walked between panic and keeping the public aware and practicing good hygiene. Instead we are getting, there is nothing to worry about and we don't know that yet. Canada just had it's first severe case. I am in wait and see mode. It may end up staying mild and I hope it does.

[quiller4]

30. So far the only severe cases have hit individuals with

underlying respiratory disease. That was true of the Canadian case as well as the Texas cases. While it could return in the fall in a more severe form, it seems now that cases are becoming milder not more severe.

[Hannah Bell]

32. thank you for that. when i heard them reporting 100s of deaths "striking down

young people in the prime of life" preferentially one day out of the gate i was pretty sure it was way beyond any hard data they could possibly have.

[Hugin]

29. I agree with your disagreement.

I'm also happy with what has been done... If for only the reason it exercised a response system which until now has only been theory... It 'should' work.

Oh, and Hey... Who's to say a Pandemic hasn't been lessened or averted?

[Hannah Bell]

33. "pandemic: refers to how widely dispersed a disease is, not how serious.

[Hugin]

35. And how is what I said counter to your definition?

Lessen can refer to a reduced area of spread and avert can mean an Epidemic doesn't become of 'Pandemic' proportions at all.

:shrug:

[rainbow4321]

34. What's that saying about public health?

When public health works, nothing happens.
And that is usually followed with the public criticizing public health by saying "they overreacted, NOTHING happened"

[texastoast]

36. Surely did get the torture word off the news

Has the media even mentioned that we generally have around 30,000 deaths from flu each year anyway?