STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday May 7

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday May 7, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 2

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 6, 2009

Dow... 8,512.28 +101.63 (+1.19%)
Nasdaq... 1,759.10 +4.98 (+0.28%)
S&P 500... 919.53 +15.73 (+1.74%)
Gold future... 911.00 +6.70 (+0.74%)
30-Year Bond 4.08% +0.03 (+0.72%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.15% -0.01 (-0.16%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

What are the Credit Markets Telling Us?
by Chris Puplava

Over the course of the past two months we have witnessed some stabilization in the financial markets as stocks have staged a strong rally and credit spreads have come down. While we have seen stabilization in the financial markets since the March lows the stabilization process actually began after the October 2008 panic lows. After the collapse of Lehman the markets came unglued and the Federal Reserve and Treasury worked over time creating lending facility after lending facility to ease the various sectors of the financial markets, and looking back, one would have to conclude they have largely been successful. But the question that lies ahead of us is whether or not their financial efforts will gain economic traction. Basically, do the recent green shoots have roots?

.....

One of the areas that I have been monitoring closely over the last several months in terms of gauging the anxiety of the markets as well as the force of deleveraging is the currency markets. The collapse of Lehman led to the unwinding of the yen carry trade in which cheaply borrowed yen was used to invest in higher yielding currencies. As the deleveraging process gained force the euro gave back in two months what it had gained in six years in terms of purchasing power relative to the yen. While the weakening of the euro relative to the yen was an early warning heading into the market collapse late last year, the stabilization and strength in the euro relative to the yen this year was an early warning of a coming market advance. As a break below the 200 day moving average (200d MA) was a warning of market stress, a break above the 200d MA is likely indicating greater stabilization in the currency markets and signs of easing in investor’s fears.

.....

It appears the easing of investor’s fears has been justified given the easing in the credit markets. For example, the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey for April hit the street on Monday and showed that the peak in tightening in the credit markets is probably behind us. The center of the current crisis has been housing, and the Fed’s survey shows that the net percentage of banks tightening standards for mortgage loans decreased significantly in the first quarter of the year with a slight uptick in the recent quarter, though still well below the wide tightening seen at the end of 2008. Accompanied with the easing in lending standards has been a rising trend in mortgage demand as the net percentage of banks reporting stronger demand has improved and actually turned positive for prime mortgages in the second quarter.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

21. "I Have Nothing Up My Sleeve..."

that's what the credit markets are telling us. The magician's patter, designed to distract and misdirect the audience's attention in order to perform a trick of skillful manipulation that deceives all but those in the know.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 05/02
Briefing.com 620K
Consensus 635K
Prior 631K

08:30 Productivity-Prel Q1
Briefing.com 0.9%
Consensus 0.6%
Prior -0.4%

08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q1
Briefing.com 2.5%
Consensus 2.7%
Prior 5.7%

15:00 Consumer Credit Mar
Briefing.com -$1.0B
Consensus -$4.0B
Prior -$7.5B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

33. Initial Claims @ 601,000 - last wk rev'd up 4k

05. US weekly initial jobless claims down 34K to 601K
8:30 AM ET, May 07, 2009

06. US 4-wk avg initial claims fall 14,750 to 623,500
8:30 AM ET, May 07, 2009

07. US ongoing claims up 56K to record 6.35M
8:30 AM ET, May 07, 2009

08. US 4-wk avg ongoing claims up 125K to record 6.21M
8:30 AM ET, May 07, 2009

09. U.S. 1Q productivity up 0.8% vs. 0% expected
8:30 AM ET, May 07, 2009

10. U.S. 1Q unit labor costs up 3.3% vs. 3% expected
8:30 AM ET, May 07, 2009

[54anickel]

42. And the futures crowd goes wild! We're in the money, we're in the money. We've got a lot of what it

takes to get you pwned!!!

Step right up, and grab yourself a seat on Mr. Monee's wild ride! Going up?!?!?!?

[Pale Blue Dot]

43. Why do you post that ongoing jobless claim number?

The only thing that matters is that this week's new claims were only very bad, rather than very, very bad:

Jobless claims at lowest level since January

WASHINGTON - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless aid unexpectedly fell by 34,000 last week, sinking to the lowest level since late January, new Labor Department data showed on Thursday.

At the same time, a four-week average of new claims declined for a fourth straight week.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits dropped to a seasonally adjusted 601,000 in the week ended May 2 from a revised 635,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30618701/

Another headline at MSNBC:

Retailers report smaller sales declines in April

Looks like everything's finally coming up roses!

[CatholicEdHead]

47. Exactly

I heard that on Morning Edition this morning (in-between the pledge drive) and I would be encouraged if it was lowest since last Sept, not Jan.

[54anickel]

51. It's been a standing joke for a long time in the SMW thread...as most gubbermint reports are.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

92. U.S. March consumer credit falls record $11.1 bln - down 5.2% annual rate

78. U.S. March consumer credit falls record $11.1 bln
3:01 PM ET, May 07, 2009

79. U.S. March consumer credit down 5.2% annual rate
3:01 PM ET, May 07, 2009

80. U.S. consumer debt up 0.1% in past year
3:01 PM ET, May 07, 2009

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises to six-month high near $58 in Asia

SINGAPORE – Oil prices jumped to near $58 a barrel Thursday in Asia, extending gains to near six-month highs on investor expectations global economic growth may begin to rebound by the end of the year.

Benchmark crude for June delivery was up $1.31 cents to $57.68 a barrel by late afternoon in Singapore, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Wednesday rose 4.6 percent, or $2.50, to settle at $56.34, the highest level since mid-November.

Oil has broken above a trading range of about $45 to $55 a barrel that it's been in since dropping from a record $147 in July, boosted by investor perceptions that the worst of a severe U.S. recession may be over.

....

U.S. oil inventories grew less than expected last week, suggesting crude demand may be stabilizing. Inventory levels for the week ended May 1 rose by 600,000 barrels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said Wednesday in its weekly report. Analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., had expected a build up of 2.2 million barrels.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for June delivery rose 2.65 cents to $1.65 a gallon and heating oil gained 1.71 cents to $1.49 a gallon. Natural gas for June delivery was stady at $3.89 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Ted Rall

[TeeYiYi]

90. Wow. That cartoon says a mouthful...

... I don't know if anyone else has experienced this, but ever since I got laid off from my job in mid April, my so-called friends have pulled an unimaginable disappearing act.

I don't use Facebook or Twitter, but phone calls, emails and texts go unanswered. The silence is deafening. What an unfortunate side-effect of sudden unemployment. The same thing happened to my sister when she found out she had cancer...

TYY

[Demeter]

103. Well, That's What We're Here For

To commiserate and share. Best Wishes!

[TeeYiYi]

105. Thank you Demeter . . .

. . . Your kind words are appreciated.

TYY :hi:

[Demeter]

107. Also Provide Refuge For Insomniacs!

[ozymandius]

5. Nintendo Forecasts Miss Estimates as Wii Sales Slow

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Nintendo Co., the world’s largest maker of video-game players, forecast earnings that missed analysts’ estimates as demand for its Wii console slows and sales of the portable DS player head for their first annual drop.

Operating profit, which excludes taxes and currency-related costs, will probably fall 12 percent to 490 billion yen ($5 billion) in the year ending March 31, 2010, Kyoto-based Nintendo said today. That missed the 536.9 billion yen median of 19 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Nintendo fell in Osaka trading after the company forecast sales of the motion-sensing Wii will rise less than 1 percent this fiscal year to 26 million consoles, below projections at Credit Suisse Group AG and Morgan Stanley. President Satoru Iwata is counting on the June release of the “Wii Sports Resort” game to help extend the Wii’s lead over Sony Corp.’s PlayStation 3 and Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox 360 machines.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=ae6LuLGHP_g4&refer=japan

---

It's difficult to see how Nintendo can sustain its profit margins when Wii games and peripherals are sold at major discounters like Big Lots.

[Tansy_Gold]

20. What happens when everybody already has one?

Oh, I know, that's when they come out with something NEW! and IMPROVED! and BETTER!

So then what happens when no one can afford it?






:crickets:




Tansy Gold

[Dr.Phool]

6. 491,000 to 580,000 jobs lost in April?

Private-sector employment in the United States fell by 491,000 jobs in April, the smallest decline in six months, according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday. The relative improvement was widespread across industries, said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, the consulting firm that computes the index for payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. from hundreds of thousands of anonymous payroll reports. Goods-producing industries cut 262,000 jobs, including 159,000 in manufacturing and 95,000 in construction. Services cut 229,000 jobs in April. It was the first month since October in which goods-producing industries cut more jobs than the services did.

The index comes two days before the government releases its estimate of April nonfarm payrolls. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are looking for payrolls to drop by 580,000 in the government survey, which would also be the smallest decline since October. The ADP index does not include government jobs. To get an apples-to-apples comparison with the Labor Department report, you have to add in about 8,000 jobs typically gained in the public sector. That suggests total payrolls fell by about 480,000 in April, compared with the MarketWatch consensus of 580,000 for the Labor Department's estimate. The March ADP index was revised to a decline of 708,000 from a decline of 742,000 previously reported.

Employment in the private sector has fallen by 5.27 million since the recession began in December 2007, ADP said. Through March, private-sector employment as measured by the government survey had fallen by 5.30 million. In April, employment in large companies declined by 71,000, employment in medium-sized companies fell by 231,000 and employment in small firms fell by 183,000. ADP provides payroll and human-resources services to about one in every six U.S. workers, serving more than 500,000 companies. The ADP sample is taken during the same week of the month as the government's survey, using similar methods.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Private-sector-jobs-fall-491000/story.aspx?guid={13600D45-3E89-4C21-821B-1CD9A2C860A3}

[ozymandius]

8. Well, of course, this is cause for celebration.

Instead of plummeting to the ground at 120 mph, we are merely plummeting at 95 mph. :woohoo:

[Dr.Phool]

10. Just a slight updraft in the turbulence.

I look for next month to be off the charts. That's when all the automakers layoffs will show up.

And I think tomorrow, the Arcelor-Mittal steel mills in Cleveland and Georgetown go down to skeleton crews, just to maintain equipment.

[ozymandius]

11. It's just astonishing to me how this logic works.

I read at Ritholtz's blog, "Less bad is the new good". Funny that many have forgotten how many jobs need to be created just to keep pace with population growth. But still we see people popping champagne corks because only half a million people lost their jobs in April. WTF?

[AnneD]

77. I said the very same thing on the last jobs report....

even my GOP leaning mom is starting to doubt all the Faux happy news when it comes to jobs. Luckily, all her kids are gainfully employed or self employed doing well. She and Step Dad have so much equity in their house that they are doing fine too, even though they are still paying a mortgage.

[Lucky Luciano]

78. True, but a deceleration of job losses will have to come

before jobs get added....so the deceleration in horrific economic numbers can be taken to be bullish after the horrible run we had (and continue to have). I can see why the stock market goes up before a recovery because traders want to place their bets once the deceleration of horrible numbers starts to happen rather than waiting for job growth and GDP growth to happen. Of course if that deceleration switches gears and goes the other way, then that will be pretty awful and there will be huge selling after this massive rally.

[Dr.Phool]

9. U.S. April Job Cuts Rise 47% From a Year Ago, Challenger Says

By Courtney Schlisserman

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Job cuts announced by U.S. employers in April increased 47 percent from a year earlier, led by government agencies and companies in the automotive industry, while the total was the lowest since October.

Firing announcements rose to 132,590, compared with 90,015 in April 2008, Chicago-based Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said today. Government employers and auto companies announced the largest cutbacks, accounting for 39 percent of the layoffs.

“Job cuts are still at recession levels, but the fact that they are falling is certainly promising and may suggest that employers are starting to feel a little more confident about future business conditions,” John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of the placement company, said in a statement. Still, he said, “state and local governments, as well as school districts, are really feeling the impact of this downturn.”

The easing pace of layoff announcements adds to evidence that the recession is abating and raises the prospect of a sustained recovery in consumer spending. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that while job losses and increased unemployment are likely in coming months, economic activity will “bottom out, then turn up later this year.”

A government report on May 8 may show payrolls fell by 610,000 in April, which would mark a record fifth straight month of losses greater than 600,000, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The jobless rate probably jumped to 8.9 percent, the highest since September 1983.

Unemployment Rolls

Already, the economy has lost about 5.1 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, marking the biggest employment drop in any postwar economic downturn. The number of people on unemployment rolls has broken records for 13 straight weeks, according to the Labor Department, totaling 6.27 million as of the week ended April 18.

“The most recent information on the labor market -- the number of new and continuing claims for unemployment insurance through late April -- suggests that we are likely to see further sizable job losses and increased unemployment in coming months,” Bernanke said yesterday in testimony to the congressional Joint Economic Committee.

Still, today’s report showed that on a month-to-month basis, the number of planned job cuts fell 12 percent from the 150,411 announced in March. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects, so economists prefer to focus on year-over- year changes.

Auto Industry

Job losses will probably continue at automakers and parts suppliers as General Motors Corp. tries to avoid bankruptcy and Chrysler LLC goes through those proceedings.

Chrysler has idled most of its factories. Chief Executive Officer Robert Nardelli said April 30 the company may resume production when it emerges from bankruptcy proceedings or sooner if it resolves supply issues.

Cummins Inc., Chrysler’s fifth-largest unsecured creditor, said May 5 it cut production to two days a week at its plant that makes diesel engines for Chrysler’s heavy-duty Dodge Ram pickup truck.

The Challenger report on firings does not always correlate with figures on payrolls or first-time jobless claims as reported by the government.

Many job cuts are carried out through attrition or early retirement. Some employees whose jobs are eliminated find work elsewhere in their companies, and many announced staff reductions never take place because business improvements.

Challenger’s totals also include foreign affiliates.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aoMAyV8N1S3Q&refer=news

--------------------------------------------------------

This takes some of the spin out of the "happy" ADP numbers.

[Dr.Phool]

15. The Real Unemployment Report

Wednesday, May 6, 2009
The Real Unemployment Report
Posted by Tyler Durden at 3:59 PM
TrimTabs Investment Research estimated today that the U.S. economy shed 745,000 jobs in April (20,000 more than their March job loss estimates) as wages and salaries plunged an adjusted 5.7% year-over-year. TrimTabs estimated that the economy shed a record 5 million jobs in the past 12 months.

"If job losses continue at the present rate, the unemployment rate could top 10% by summer," said TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman.

In a research note, TrimTabs reported that income tax refunds are up 16.5% year-over-year this year, providing a short-term boost to consumption. Unfortunately for the economy, however, the support from refunds is winding down.

Moreover, TrimTabs explained that President Obama’s "Making Work Pay" tax credit is too small to help the economy over the longer term.

"The Obama tax credit will distribute $20 billion to consumers from May through July," said Biderman. "This amount is less than one-quarter of the $90 billion the Bush tax credit pumped into consumers’ pocketbooks in the same period last year."

Finally, TrimTabs reported that real-time income tax data indicates that the personal savings rate was 1.6% in March, well below the 4.2% estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/real-unemployment-report.html

[ozymandius]

17. This data emphasizes the unseriousness of the banks' stress tests.

The U3 rate of unemployment at 10% belongs in the worst case scenario of the stress tests. To go further - that rate of unemployment was not expected to be reached until 2010 in the testing algorithms.

[ozymandius]

7. Billionaire Donors Split With Obama on Law That May Hurt Hotels

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Three Chicago billionaires who helped fund President Barack Obama’s election campaign are fighting legislation he backs that would make it easier for unions to organize hotels they own.

Penny Pritzker, Obama’s campaign finance chairwoman and a director of Global Hyatt Corp., has told the president she is opposed to the measure, known as card check, said a person familiar with the situation. Neil Bluhm, a partner in Walton Street Capital LLC, also opposes the bill, the person said. Lester Crown, chairman of Henry Crown & Co., criticized the proposal in an interview.

For the city’s business leaders who nurtured Obama’s White House bid, card check is a gut check on support for their hometown president. Labor, which spent $100 million on Democratic campaigns last year, made it a top priority to enact a bill giving workers bargaining rights based on signing cards instead of winning a secret-ballot election.

.....

Under the National Labor Relations Act of 1935, employers can demand an election even if more than half of workers sign cards supporting a union. The bill would take away that right, and opponents say it would leave employees open to retaliation if they refuse to sign up.

.....

While the U.S. Chamber of Commerce plans to spend about $20 million this year on advertising and lobbying to block card check, labor leaders said they are determined to get a filibuster-proof margin in the Senate.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6A3G.MZZqIw&refer=exclusive

---

If the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is against something, you can be sure that it would benefit people who actually work.

[Dr.Phool]

12. Good morning Ozy.

Just a rule of thumb I go by. If the Chamber of Commerce takes a stand one way on an issue, I go the opposite way.

And why so many small businesses support them, is beyond me. They usually support things detrimental to their interests.

[ozymandius]

13. Good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Likewise, I do the same. I wonder if the hideous positions that the national Chamber of Commerce advocates is reflected by the local chapters. This idea puzzles me because I know of some businesses that are members of the local Chamber of Commerce that do not treat their employees like shit and pay them a living wage.

[Demeter]

23. Quote From "1776"

"Don't forget, most men would rather protect the possibility of becoming rich than face the reality of being poor, and that is why they will follow us TO THE RIGHT! Ever to the right! Never to the Left! Forever to the Right!"

[AnneD]

45. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. One of the interesting things about marrying someone from another country is finding out what they like about this country and it's culture. Last night I put on the first Dirty Harry movie. To my suprise, my non violent squimish at the sight of blood Indian hubby LOVED IT. I mean really LOVED IT. I was shocked. but then as I thought about it, I think I know why it struck a cord with him. It's not about violence-it''s about justice. And it's not about in the sky by and by heavenly or karmic justice...it's about instant gratification justice. I am sure that is why my Hindu hubby loved it.

And then I started thinking (always a dangerous propisition). So what is this current crop of Wall Street hoods. They may wear nicer clothing and better smelling after shave, but they are nothing more than than common hoodlums and thugs-they just rob you at pen point rather than knife point or gun point.

So Demeter, I want vigalante justice this weekend-even if is only Hollywood style. I would like to propose a Dirty Harry WEE. If that is too rough for you-we can always do the woman's version of Dirty Harry... 9 to 5 for WEE.

"I know what you're thinking. "Did he fire six shots or only five?" Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk? "

Doctor: Sure, Harry. We can save the leg.

Harry Callahan: What are you going to do with those?
Doctor: Going to cut your pants off.
Harry Callahan: No. I'll take them off.
Doctor: It'll hurt.
Harry Callahan: $29.50, let it hurt.

Doralee: this is the last straw! Look, I've got a gun out there in my purse. Up until now I've been forgivin' and forgettin' because of the way I was brought up, but I'll tell you one thing. If you ever say another word about me or make another indecent proposal, * I'm gonna get that gun of mine, and I'm gonna change you from a rooster to a hen with one shot! And don't think I can't do it.

Violet: Oh, God. They know about the rat poison. I might as well just turn myself in.
Doralee: Violet, it was an accident.
Violet: I'm a murderer.
Judy: No, you're not.
Violet: I'm a murderess. I'm gonna go to the pen. My poor kids. I'm gonna lose my job.
Judy: Violet, stop this.
Violet: I'm no fool. I've killed the boss, you think they're not gonna fire me for a thing like that?

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Demeter]

53. Okay, You Got It. Dirty Harry It Is

I wish we could get some instant justice real time to go with it, but...

[DemReadingDU]

55. Go Ahead, Make My Day

:)


yeh, Dirty Harry!

[Joe Chi Minh]

65. Naaa.... A Few Dollars More. That was a bank robbery and rape. Almost as larcenous

and depraved as owning a bank and demanding a bail-out to finance your bonuses and pensions.

[AnneD]

75. Well,

we had a western theme recently with City Slickers. But we can keep that in Mind....

The Good....Elizabeth Warren
The Bad....Tim Geitner
The Ugly....Ben Bernanke

Only trouble with the Spaghetti Westerns is that Clint didn't say much. Say didn't we have a Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid once?

[Joe Chi Minh]

82. My favourite's Lee Van Cleef, actually.Colonel Douglas Mortimer,

one-time Colonel of a regiment of sharp-shooters in the Carolinas. (Reminds me of Larry King)

[Demeter]

87. Clint Is a Much Better Actor When He DOESN'T Have Dialog

At least in his earlier movies--the less said, the better he looked.

[DemReadingDU]

91. Rowdy Yates

Rawhide anyone?
http://crazyabouttv.com/rawhide.html

[AnneD]

95. I had my first crush...

on him. Dad couldn't figure out why I started watching westerns with him. Twelve and already corrupted by eye candy.:rofl:

[ozymandius]

14. Regulators put bank CEOs on notice

Banks that need capital after stress tests will have a month to give regulators a plan and to review management to make sure they have "sufficient expertise."

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Banks that need more capital under the stress tests will have a month to present regulators with a fundraising plan, federal officials said Wednesday.

The banks will have six months to raise the funds, according to a statement from the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

The banks will also have to review their management and board within a month, "to assure that the leadership of the firm has sufficient expertise and ability to manage the risks presented by the current economic environment," the bank regulators said in a statement Wednesday afternoon.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/06/news/stress.plans.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009050703

---

Notice the code words "sufficient expertise." No way in hell will banks cut exorbitant executive pay while on taxpayer-funded life support. Expertise costs money. The kind of expert who knows how to tank the global economy is truly a rare breed.

[ozymandius]

16. Government: Stress Test Results to be released at 5 PM ET (after markets close, of course)

from Calculated Risk

Joint statement from Treasury, Fed, FDIC and Comptroller: The Treasury Capital Assistance Program and the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program

During this period of extraordinary economic uncertainty, the U.S. federal banking supervisors believe it to be important for the largest U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) to have a capital buffer sufficient to withstand losses and sustain lending even in a significantly more adverse economic environment than is currently anticipated. In keeping with this aim, the Federal Reserve and other federal bank supervisors have been engaged in a comprehensive capital assessment exercise--known as the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP)--with each of the 19 largest U.S. BHCs.

The SCAP will be completed this week and the results released publicly by the Federal Reserve Board on Thursday May 7th, 2009 at 5pm EDT. In this release, supervisors will report--under the SCAP "more adverse" scenario, for each of the 19 institutions individually and in the aggregate--their estimates of: losses and loss rates across select categories of loans; resources available to absorb those losses; and the resulting necessary additions to capital buffers. The estimates reported by the Federal Reserve represent values for a hypothetical 'what-if' scenario and are not forecasts of expected losses or revenues for the firms. Any BHC needing to augment its capital buffer at the conclusion of the SCAP will have until June 8th, 2009 to develop a detailed capital plan, and until November 9th, 2009 to implement that capital plan.

-emphasis added-

[Demeter]

25. Bet You a Nickel It Doesn't Happen

Bet you we never see the stress tests, and have only leaks and rumors.

[DemReadingDU]

28. Those stress tests will be whatever they want them to be

Whatever banks 'they' want to need money, that's what the test will say.

[Dr.Phool]

18. "Sufficient Experise", in raising funds.

Girls going door-to-door selling Citibank cookies? Get a free CDO in every box?

[AnneD]

79. I'll think we all get a box of those Italian suppositories....

Innuendos.

So stock up on the KY Jelly folks. Don't get stuck without it.

[Dr.Phool]

80. That Kentucky Jelly sucks.

I don't know what kind of fruit they use, but it tastes terrible.

[Hugin]

85. I hear ya Dr.P! I assumed it was Kiwi Fruit due to the name on the label...

But, man! It does leave an after-taste and it tastes nothing like Kiwis. :blech:

The only reason I keep buying it is that it's the only Jelly I can find that doesn't have High Fritos Corn Syrup in it.

Also, it makes a good mixer with the cheap store-brand Tequila I've been getting to ward off the Porcine Flu.

It is odd they don't sell it in the Juice Section... Must be because it's all organic... organismic... or something like that.(It says so on the label). :shrug:

[AnneD]

93. Don't laugh...

but a patient did once make a similar comment to a Nurse friend of mine when she went to pick up the breakfast tray. I almost wet my pants before I could get to the rest room I was laughing so hard. Seems she got the jelly from the bedside table and not the breakfast tray. OOPS :blush:

It took me a while to figure out that some one that was taking peanut butter balls was actually on phenobarbital.

I gotta million of 'em. Ask me about the time I drank apple juice with a few graham cracker crumbs in it from a urine specimen cup and made one of the new interns :puke: I did the same thing with vanilla pudding and a sterile vaginal speculum.

[Hugin]

102. True story.

I literally had to 'snort' Kwye Jelly for six months after a sinus surgery.

It was back in the old days when it came in tubes. Also, it came in one flavor... Blandish/Sweet.

Everyone thought I was nuts.

[AnneD]

108. Wonder what it is worth on the black market.......

yes-I've heard of that. I actually had a Doc perscribe colace to be placed in the ear (colace is usually a stool softner). We were checking the drug book on that route.

[ozymandius]

19. Leaked info on which bank needs how much money

Calculated Risk has the info. See the chart.

[DemReadingDU]

30. Fifth Third and KeyCorp need the same amount?

$3.3 billion


State Street needs an unspecified amount.

These results are going to be cooked to whatever 'they' want them to be.

:eyes:

[Demeter]

24. And So Valuable

If you want to start a global revolution. One would think losing the continent of South America was a sufficient object lesson, but some men will never learn or change.

[Festivito]

22. Debt: 05/05/2009 11,227,464,371,841.48 (UP 7,494,388,827.79) (Tiny debt rise.)

(A tiny rise in debt, the rest, most of the total was FICA stuff, like yesterday.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,927,814,023,783.68 + 4,299,650,348,057.80
UP 122,936,524.80 + UP 7,371,452,302.99

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.79, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,294,943 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $36,655.73.
A family of three owes $109,967.19. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,677,160,888.37.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,696,584,651.47.
The average for the last 32 days would be 2,528,048,110.75.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 73 reports in 105 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.10B$ per report, 0.16B$/day so far.
There were 148 reports in 217 days of FY2009 averaging 8.13B$ per report, 5.54B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,356 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 18.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/05/2009 11,227,464,371,841.48 BHO (UP 600,587,322,928.40 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,202,739,474,929.00 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/14/2009 +000,167,862,523.71 ------------********
04/15/2009 +044,205,591,028.33 ------------**********
04/17/2009 -038,696,374,097.81 -
04/20/2009 +000,193,620,436.16 ------------******** Mon
04/21/2009 -000,363,758,089.93 ---
04/22/2009 +000,051,738,680.14 ------------*******
04/23/2009 -012,857,484,009.95 -
04/24/2009 -000,133,239,400.23 ---
04/27/2009 +000,285,896,492.06 ------------******** Mon
04/28/2009 +000,154,949,620.57 ------------********
04/29/2009 -034,727,762,120.64 -
04/30/2009 +079,347,503,951.43 ------------**********
05/01/2009 -003,202,605,992.57 --
05/04/2009 +000,068,750,275.89 ------------******* Mon
05/05/2009 +000,122,936,524.80 ------------********

34,617,625,821.96 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,562,832,568,582.41 in last 229 days.
That's 1,563B$ in 229 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 154% of that highest year ever only in 229 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 229 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3863526&mesg_id=3863615

[Festivito]

96. Debt: 05/06/2009 11,226,807,485,330.04 (DOWN 656,886,511.44) (Tiny debt fall.)

(A tiny fall in both debts. Do they only Friday dump the increases? Today may have done what Friday afternoon will tell.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,927,755,259,710.47 + 4,299,052,225,619.57
DOWN 58,764,073.21 + DOWN 598,122,438.23

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.79, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,301,115 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $36,652.85.
A family of three owes $109,958.54. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,520,941,556.69.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,582,023,808.24.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 74 reports in 106 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.04B$ per report, 0.13B$/day so far.
There were 149 reports in 218 days of FY2009 averaging 8.07B$ per report, 5.51B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,355 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 18.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/06/2009 11,226,807,485,330.04 BHO (UP 599,930,436,416.96 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,202,082,588,417.60 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/15/2009 +044,205,591,028.33 ------------**********
04/17/2009 -038,696,374,097.81 -
04/20/2009 +000,193,620,436.16 ------------******** Mon
04/21/2009 -000,363,758,089.93 ---
04/22/2009 +000,051,738,680.14 ------------*******
04/23/2009 -012,857,484,009.95 -
04/24/2009 -000,133,239,400.23 ---
04/27/2009 +000,285,896,492.06 ------------******** Mon
04/28/2009 +000,154,949,620.57 ------------********
04/29/2009 -034,727,762,120.64 -
04/30/2009 +079,347,503,951.43 ------------**********
05/01/2009 -003,202,605,992.57 --
05/04/2009 +000,068,750,275.89 ------------******* Mon
05/05/2009 +000,122,936,524.80 ------------********
05/06/2009 -000,058,764,073.21 ----

34,390,999,225.04 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,562,175,682,070.97 in last 230 days.
That's 1,562B$ in 230 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 154% of that highest year ever only in 230 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 230 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3865535&mesg_id=3865592

[Demeter]

26. AIG to post $5 billion loss: source

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090506/bs_nm/us_aig_results_1

...The insurer's net loss is expected to be about $1.80 per share, the source said.

On an adjusted basis, AIG is expected to post a first-quarter loss of about $2.4 billion, which comes to a little less than 90 cents per share, the source said...

[Hugin]

41. Okay, three things for today and I'm outta here...

I'm having one of my few lucid days and I don't want to waste it howling into the wind.

1. I heard via Cenk on TYT that President Obama had a dinner meeting with Krugman and Stiglitz recently to 'talk Economy'. Apparently, it lasted several hours. How come I heard nothing about this on the Corporate (Financial Sector) News? Oh, :headsmack: The Corporatists don't want that rogue thinking entering 'The Bubble of Consciousness'.

2. The alternative (Read: Written by the Mortgage Brokers for the Mortgage Brokers) Mortgage Bill sponsored by a Sen. Dodd(D-AIG) passed yesterday 91 to something. (Which can't be good for the Middle-class American.) I was reading through it and it's pure junk. Basically unloading the whole economic crisis on 'Bad Apple Sub-Prime Lying Borrowers'. It was some of the most poisonous political cynicism directed at a relatively non-existent class of people I've ever had the displeasure of reading. Puke worthy... I was wrong. I thought the rise of the Financial Sector Monday was the sick victory lap bullshit... No, it turns out -THIS- Bill was. :grr:

3. Anybody find out what is up with antigop from yesterday? :/

[Demeter]

27. I Like This Cartoon Better

http://dilbert.com/dyn_file/str_strip/52201/gif/strip.print/

And Here's Oliphant

[Demeter]

29. How the boss absconded with your benefits.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2009/05/who-ran-away-your-401k



...It started with the 1974 Employee Retirement Income Security Act, the law ostensibly designed to ensure that workers could collect the retirement benefits they'd earned. erisa brought some important reforms—including establishing the federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (pbgc) to help workers whose pensions went bust—but it also was riddled with favors to business. And in the decades since, legions of lobbyists have helped create numerous new loopholes, exemptions, and special deals. The result is two separate and unequal pension systems: Executives get the equivalent of antebellum mansions, while workers get leaky shacks liable to collapse at the first harsh economic wind. Here are 10 of the key ways in which it happened. (Be warned: This stuff gets a bit technical. Washington is full of people who are very well paid to figure out insanely complex ways to take money from you and me.)

The Top Hat Club: In erisa, lawmakers put a cap on how much of an employee's pay companies could count in calculating his retirement benefits. The reasoning was solid: Congress let companies take a tax deduction for money they put in their pension plan, but didn't want to extend that taxpayer subsidy to the highest-paid workers. The cap rises with inflation; this year it amounts to $245,000. That is more than 99 percent of workers earn, but it is also far below what top executives are paid.

So to guarantee a retirement in keeping with the income they are accustomed to, executives have created their own plans, known appropriately enough as Top Hat plans. If you thought ceo pay was lavish, consider this: Most of the numbers you see reported don't include retirement benefits, even though they typically raise compensation by about a third. And since these funds are separate from the regular workers' pensions, executives have no personal motivation to safeguard the latter.

The government does not guarantee these executive benefits; in theory, if a company ends up in bankruptcy, creditors can take the money. But as Diana B. Henriques and I showed in a 1996 series for the New York Times, in practice executives get nearly every cent (and some even double their money) when their companies fail. The reason? Executives of bankrupt companies threaten to walk unless they get their pension money in full, but promise to stay and help rehabilitate the firm if their money is guaranteed.

The Tax Dodge: Contributions to pension plans are tax free, but companies have to pay taxes on the money they put into Top Hat plans—a cost that can amount to several billions over the years for a large firm. How do companies pay for that extra cost? First, they shortchange the rank and file by reducing their benefits. (Workers are often told their benefits must be cut because of competition; they just don't realize that the competitors are their own bosses.) Second, they buy tax shelters—depriving the Treasury of revenue that must be made up by the rest of us.

The Bonus Bonus: Under most pension plans, workers' benefits are calculated based on salary and years worked. However, a number of subtle rules tend to reduce these benefits—such as averaging pay for the last five years on the job, excluding overtime and bonuses, etc. For executives, it works exactly the opposite way: Benefits are maximized by counting only their highest-paid year, bonuses and supplemental pay are included, and so on. In calculating Snow's pension, for example, csx even counted the 250,000 shares of stock it gave him. Based on similarly generous pension rules, controversial ceo Jack Welch left General Electric in 2001 with a pension worth $9 million a year, and Lee Raymond retired as ceo of ExxonMobil in 2006 with a lump-sum pension payment of $98 million.

The Social Security Swindle: erisa allowed com­panies to reduce prom­ised pension benefits by the equivalent of most of a worker's Social Security check. Thus, if a secretary were due a pension of $1,000 but could expect $732 in Social Security, she might receive as little as $400 from the pension fund. (Thanks to the Tax Reform Act of 1986, only half a pension can be taken away via the Social Security offset.)

Prudent Man's Hand: When you buy an annuity (which is essentially an individually financed pension plan), the insurance company that manages it will invest primarily in high-quality, safe corporate bonds. Had Congress held to this sound accounting principle, few pension plans would be in trouble today. But instead, Congress in 1974 created a "prudent man test" for plan managers, who were expected simply to look to what others in their field were doing. Soon, plans were falling over each other chasing the higher returns to be found in stocks and even hedge funds; at the same time, pension lobbyists worked to kill laws limiting pension investments in stocks.

The Phantom of the Pension Fund: In erisa, Congress allowed companies to treat their own estimates of how much their pension investments would earn as if they had actually earned that much, even when the true returns were much smaller. Thus, a company can estimate that it will earn 8 percent, actually make 3 percent, yet still value its pension plan as if it had made the higher amount. In theory, this process, known as "smoothing," is supposed to account for fluctuations in asset valuations over time. In practice, it means that pension plans can become filled with phantom assets. At one point in 2004, the New York Times reported, the entire net worth of General Motors was accounted for by these imaginary investment gains in its pension plans. (The fanciful accounting practice has since been limited somewhat.)

Under erisa, if a plan had $1 in assets for each dollar owed in benefits, no more tax-deductible money could be put in. (In 2006, that ceiling was changed to $1.50.) So when the stock market was riding high, companies would stop making pension contributions even though they were flush with profit and could afford to put money aside. In the '80s and '90s, some big firms like General Electric, ibm, and US Steel went years without adding a dime to their pension plans because the soaring stock market made the funds appear flush. Then the inevitable cyclical declines came, leaving some plans deep in the hole—and with the economy weakened, companies claimed they couldn't afford make-up contributions.

The Boehner Bungle: Under the 2006 Pension Protection Act, a misleadingly named law sponsored by Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio), now the House Republican leader, companies can convert single-employer plans to multi-employer plans. A little-noticed side effect: If those pension plans fail, the maximum government guarantee is no longer $1,000-plus per week, but about $250 per week. Public disclosure is limited, so it's hard to tell how many companies have done this.

40 Is the New 60: Since 1985, more and more companies have switched from traditional "guaranteed benefit" pensions to a new system, called a cash balance plan, that is a mixture of the traditional pension and a 401(k)-type plan. A cash balance plan typically costs a company about 20 percent less than a traditional pension plan and can cost workers 40 and older half their expected retirement benefits. Yet the federal courts have rejected claims by ibm employees and others that this amounts to illegal age discrimination.

The Deep Freeze: Once upon a time, only troubled companies shut down their pension plans. But in the last decade, ibm, Neiman Marcus, and many other healthy companies have done effectively the same thing by freezing their plans, meaning that employees' benefits will not go up no matter how long they work for the company. Other companies, including Alcoa, Nissan North America, and Lockheed Martin, have kept their plans going but barred new hires from joining, while others yet (such as DuPont) cut newly accrued retirement benefits by as much as two-thirds.

The Coming Bailout: In February 2008, just as the stock market was beginning to tank, the three-person board of the pbgc (Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez) ordered the agency's staff to sell some of its bond holdings and buy stocks and hedge funds instead. Fortunately, that didn't happen. Still, as of last September 30 the guaranty corporation owed $11.2 billion more to workers in failed pension plans than it had available to pay them. And while the feds could simply boost employer premiums to the pbgc to make up for the shortfall, a likelier outcome is a taxpayer bailout if (or when) more plans fail. At least this time the money will go to elderly people who did nothing to bring on their misfortune.

Back when Congress created the contemporary pension system, the idea was that workers' benefits (which are really just wages deferred to old age) should be guaranteed even if their employers failed. Executives' benefits, meanwhile, were supposed to be risky, tied to their companies' fortunes.

What we now have is the opposite. Nearly 44 million workers are at risk of not being paid the benefits they are due. But few executives will miss out on their golden years.

[Demeter]

32. Bernanke's Crystal Ball

http://dailyreckoning.com/bernankes-crystal-ball/


...Thank god for laser eye surgery! Now, the people who were blind to the biggest financial crisis in the history of the world can see clearly again. And what do they see? A recovery!

"Bernanke strikes note of hope on economy," says the headline in today's International Herald Tribune.

"The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, said Tuesday that the US economy appeared to be stabilizing on many fronts and that a recovery was likely to begin this year."

Is this good news? Or what? 'Or what' is our bet....Can the feds now fix the trouble they never saw coming? Can the people who ran banks into the ground now run the banks that will help finance the recovery? Can the investors who bought trashy investments with borrowed money now recognize the good investments that are put in front of them?


"Let us remind you, history shows this rally still has room to run:





"The current rally is smaller - in order of magnitude and duration - than the average Great Depression rebound. Should history rhyme, we still have another 5% to the upside and more than 20 days to go.

"Here's the 'money' lesson: Despite 5 rallies from 1929-1932 that exceeded 15% - including the doozy that soared almost 48% - the Dow fell from 300 to 60 over the same period. That's an 80% crash.

Caveat emptor.

"'875 is the number to watch on the S&P 500,' notes John Wayne Burritt, architect of Easy Money Options. 'Because the market reversed course to the downside February 9th at that level (875), and that peak is called - in technical parlance - a 'resistance' level.

"'The market also failed to penetrate this resistance level just a few trading days earlier, on Jan. 28. All told, that means 875 is a pretty tough point for the market to get above. That's why the market's most recent action is more significant than most investors and traders are thinking: It smashed above key resistance at 875 like a walk in the park. No doubt about it, that shows uncommon technical upside strength.

"'Here's the best part: When the market breaks through resistance - especially after failing to do so in previous attempts - that resistance level has an excellent chance of becoming a stopping point when the market decides to turn down again.

"'In other words, strong resistance - once defeated - becomes solid support for future price action. So when the market pulls back - and it surely will - it's very likely to not fall too much below 875.'

"And if the S&P 500 fails to find support at 875? All bets are off...

In the first place, the rally in stocks is likely to be a bear market trap. A real boom would require a real increase in profits. That is not likely to happen. Housing prices may be nearing a bottom - or not - but they're not likely to begin another huge rise again in our lifetimes. Once a bubble pops...it's usually over for that sector at least until another generation comes along. It will be a long time before homeowners forget what happened to their house prices. And it will be a long time before investors are willing to make big gambles on housing debt.

[54anickel]

35. Bwahaha!!! I LOVE that Dilbert toon in your link. Made my day! n/t

[Demeter]

36. It Has Become MY Life Plan As Well

Living small under the radar, pushing like mad for big changes. Staying solvent.

[54anickel]

44. A very good plan indeed! Best wishes on that journey. That center goal is a bit tough especially

on one's own. Even tougher when trying to adhere to the other two goals that surround it. Guess that takes community....and organization. :think:

:hippie:
:beer:
:smoke:
:hi:

[AnneD]

81. Let's See......

Living in paid for RV trailer.....check
all assets moved in checking, savings, precious metals, and canned goods commodities.........Check

WOW-my assets and my tax based pension plan add up to more than my worthless ex will ever have.

Guess that ADN and living a real life before I settled down and had a kid at 34 really paid off for me too.

Who'd have thunk that was the road to success.


LOL LOL LOL Great toon.

[UpInArms]

31. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 84.106 Change +0.129 (+0.17%)

Euro Vulnerable Ahead OF ECB Rate Decision, Will U.S. Bank Stress Test Reverse Optimism

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro_Vulnerable_Ahead_OF_ECB_1241691512272.html

The Euro has started to find support after falling to as low as 1.3251 against the dollar as speculation has started to increase that the ECB may not cut rates which was supported by March German factory orders unexpectedly gaining 3.3%. It was the first positive reading in activity for the regions largest economy in seven months which helped push the euro/dollar to as high as 1.344. The most encouraging component was that an increase in foreign demand was led by a 6.1% increase from Euro-zone members adding to signs that the recession may be slowing.

The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps to a record low 1.00% today, which the committee may set as a floor for monetary policy as several members have expressed reluctance to go below. If this is the case we could see the euro find support if the action isn’t coordinated with quantitative easing measures. The central bank has been reluctant to follow the BoE and Fed in purchasing government debt as the strategy is more difficult to execute with an economy consisting of 16 countries and their various debt instruments. Recent improvements in the German IFO and Euro-zone PMI reading could lead the central bank to keep rates on hold as they chose to maintain their measured approach. Considering the current division amongst them, there may not be the necessary votes to make a policy change. However, if policy makers surprise with a more aggressive rate cut and or quantitative easing measures then we could see the euro sink below support at 1.3151-the 50-Day SMA.

The pound has seen choppy price action ahead of today’s BoE rate decision, where the central bank is expected to keep their benchmark rate at 0.50%. The MPC doesn’t have much room to maneuver and will most likely keep rate sat their current record low for the time being. However, the central bank may add to their quantitative easing efforts which have started to impact credit market as we have seen Libor rates fall below 1% for the first time. At the last policy meeting Governor King stated that it would take at least two months for the central bank to finish their initial government bind purchasing program which could make today’s rate decision a non-event. The committee will most likely not provide a statement if they keep rate sin hold and refrain from initiating more non-traditional efforts. The GBP/USD reached as high as 1.5186 today leaving the January 8th high of 1.5375 as the next barrier. Support lies below at 1.500 and 1.4819-the 20-day SMA.

The dollar was initially trading higher against the euro and pond with the pending BoE and ECB rate decision, has since come under pressure as higher equity markets in Asia and Europe continue to fuel risk appetite. However, that sentiment could change if the U.S. government’s bank stress tests results reveal that more banks need to raise capital than the early rumors have dictated which could reverse recent optimism and lead to dollar support. It has been leaked that Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan are adequately capitalized while Bank of America and Citigroup will most likely raise capital through issuing common shares Although, price action will be dictated by the European policy makers and the bank stress test results, today’s initial jobless claims release also has the potential to be market moving. The employment figures come on the heels of yesterday’s ADP report which showed that the labor picture is improving. Markets will be looking to see if the number of claims supports the brighter outlook ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report. Also, ICSC same store sales will show if increasing optimism and improving economic conditions are translating into increased consumer demand. If traders see that the U.S. consumer is coming back online then we could see equity markets continue to rise and the dollar weaken.

...more...

Bank Stress Test Could Sink Optimism And Fuel Dollar Support

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Bank_Stress_Test_Could_Sink_1241624854393.html

On May 7th the U.S. government will reveal the results of the stress tests that they put the country’s nineteen largest banks through to see if they could withstand further economic deterioration. The worst case scenario could include several bank failures which may sink growing optimism and spark dollar support on increased risk aversion.

On May 7th the U.S. government will reveal the results of the stress tests that they put the country’s nineteen largest banks through to see if they could withstand further economic deterioration. The worst case scenario could include several bank failures which may sink growing optimism and spark dollar support on increased risk aversion. We have had divergent preliminary reports over the past few weeks including an early report that stated that no banks had failed. On April 24th banks received the results ahead of the public and since then there has been speculation that anywhere from one to as many as ten banks will need to raise more capital. Several of the nineteen evaluated including Wells Fargo have already disputed the claims saying that it is strongly capitalized. The Federal Reserve said its tests were aimed at ensuring adequate capital was in reserve so that major banks could continue to lend in potentially bleaker conditions, and not a measure of banks' solvency. They released their methodology for the tests which included two scenarios a baseline and a severe and asks banks to determine their capital needs under each. The scenarios included estimates for GDP, unemployment and house prices or 2009 and 2010.



Considering the speculation there is no telling what we may expect from the bank stress test results but it appears that it may be one of three outcomes. The most pessimistic scenario would be that several banks are required to secure immediate funding without government aide. The Obama administration is reluctant to go back to Congress for more funds and may leave the responsibility to the financial institutions to meet their liquidity needs. The troubled banks may not only have the inability to raise the needed capital but could be in jeopardy of failing as their fragility could discourage new business. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stated “A relapse in financial conditions would be a significant drag on economic activity and could cause the incipient recovery to stall.” Therefore, if we see some of the larger banks fail it could have a ripple effect throughout the banking system and could undo the efforts of the central bank to provide liquidity. Investors may fear the worse sparking risk aversion and reverse the recent rally in equities driving safe haven flows back into the dollar and yen. The recent beneficiary’s of the increase in optimism like the pound, Australian and New Zealand dollars could lose support.


...more...

[Demeter]

34. Defeating Homeowners: A Pyrrhic Victory for the Bankers

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ann-pettifor/defeating-homeowners-a-py_b_195182.html


...the United States is now a bank-owned state. As if to prove my point, the banks used their power over 12 Democratic members of the Senate to defeat Senator Durbin's "Helping Families Save Their Homes in Bankruptcy" amendment. And they financed the lobbying of taxpayer representatives with some of the billions of bail-out dollars provided by - taxpayers.

This was a defeat for American democracy. It represented a failure of senators to represent their constituents, honor the constitution and 'establish justice, insure domestic tranquility and promote the general welfare of the American people. But while it was a defeat for democracy, it was a Pyrrhic victory for the bankers. One more such victory over Congress and the White House, and the bankers will be facing ruin.

Why? Property makes up most of the collateral backing up toxic assets owned by bankers. The upward spiral of foreclosures places downward pressure on property prices - the banks' collateral. With falling collateral values, bank debts rise and become unpayable - forcing even more financial institutions into bankruptcy.

American homeowners - both those facing foreclosure and their neighbors - need a floor to be placed under falling house prices, for obvious reasons. Realty companies need a floor to be placed under falling house prices. The economy needs a floor to be placed under falling house prices. Above all bankers need a floor to be placed under their most important collateral - house prices.

The market will not stop house prices falling. So government has to intervene. Not just to save the homeowners, but also to save banks, because the banking system is still at risk of systemic failure.

The best way to protect the banks is via the route proposed by Senator Durbin. By managing bankruptcy law in such a way as to keep homeowners from forced sales of their homes, or from defaulting on their mortgages. In other words, by using bankruptcy law to place a floor under falling house prices.

Be sure, this route will cost American taxpayers a lot less than another bailout of the banks.

The bankers and their lobbyists on the Hill just did not get this. They may be voraciously greedy and anti-democratic, but, ironically, they are not pursuing their own best interests. By defeating Senator Durbin's amendment, they are voting for more foreclosures, more bankruptcies and more bank failures.

In other words, they are like turkeys voting for Thanksgiving.

[Tansy_Gold]

39. Just some raw data

I went to foreclosure.com and plugged in my old zip code for Buckeye, AZ -- 85326.

Ten years ago, 1999, Buckeye was a small far-west suburb of Phoenix, predominantly rural, population maybe 3,000. Beginning in about 2000, developers started building thousands and thousands of homes, primarily in the huge developement along I-10 called "Sundance" and in the upscale community of Verrado. By about 2006, the population of Buckeye had grown to about 35,000, maybe more.


According to foreclosure.com, there are currently 3,055 properties listed as being in foreclosure or pre-foreclosure or whatever in that zip code.


Buckeye is the textbook example of how the boom went bust. And even with homes that were selling for $300k four years ago being listed now at $65K, they aren't selling. We ain't hit bottom yet.



Tansy Gold

[Demeter]

40. Grim Indeed! Good Morning Tansy!

How's the sciatica?

[Tansy_Gold]

48. You don't wanna know :-(

The sciatica remains awful. Ice doesn't work. Heat doesn't work. No time to exercise because I have to sit in a chair all day and transcribe insurance claims, which is what brought on the sciatica in the first place.

drugs help the pain, but they don't fix the cause.

ANYONE HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS?


Tansy Gold, the uninsured

[Hugin]

49. Have you tried writing a LTTE?

:shrug:

I'm no help... :blush:

Anyway, recently, I was going to PT for a shoulder pain and neck injury. The Therapist also noted I wasn't sitting-flat-on-my-ass. You might try sitting-flat-on-your-ass.

Seriously, proper posture at the keyboard makes a world of difference.

Oh, and finding a food supplement with Turmeric in it helps tremendously.

[Tansy_Gold]

50. Proper posture is indeed essential.

My problem is that I'm short, so my feet don't comfortably reach the floor. And to operate the foot pedal on a dictation machine stresses all the leg, back, and gluteus muscles even more. I've tried various solutions, but haven't found one that gets me flat-assed yet.

But I'm workin' on it!


Thanks!

TG

[Hugin]

57. How about all of this modern medical terminology, eh?

:)

[Demeter]

54. One of Those Kneeling Type Chairs?

The design was Norwegian or Swedish or something.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneeling_chair

http://sitincomfort.com/kneechairs.html

[Tansy_Gold]

59. Unfortunately, they don't work for transcription

have to have foot/feet free to operate pedal.

several writer friends who years ago tried the kneeling chairs found that they didn't work as well as expected over the long haul, primarily from lack of back support.

Besides, considering how many times a day I have to get up and down to let dogs out, let dogs in, get dogs a cookie, find out what dogs are barking at, etc., etc., that kneeling thing doesn't look convenient.

Nice try, though! ALL suggestions are welcome!

TG

[Hugin]

60. ...

I sent you a PM with a suggestion.

[tclambert]

61. Surely they have shorter chairs.

Or perhaps a footstool. Something to change the angle of hip joints and legs.

[Tansy_Gold]

72. It's the whole ensemble, tc

I have to have the chair high enough to comfortably reach the keyboard and see the monitor, which then makes it too high to reach the effing foot pedal. So I have the foot pedal on a platform under the desk. This helps considerably, but once the sciatica hit, it hit and I was stuck with it.

Conventional wisdom and various websites suggest it will work itself out in 4-8 weeks. We'll see.

Moderate exercise helps, exercise I don't have sufficient time to do because I'm at the desk doing the $$$ work too many hours. I did manage to get the workload lightened for a few days, so maybe that will give me a chance to recuperate/rejuvenate/resuscitate.

But goddess only knows what I'd do without the SMWers lookin' after me!

And did anyone ever find out what was with antigop's "adieu" message yesterday? I worry about things like that. . . . .


I do.



Tansy Gold

[Hugin]

46. The author of this article seems unaware of the money in CDSs and

derivatives.

Basically, bets that the Mortgages will fail. I suspect the Financiers are heavily into these so they have a conflict-of-interest in keeping Mortgage Payers solvent.

Same as with the Automobile Industry.

So, I'm not misunderstood... They WANT them to fail. They BET they would fail. They don't CARE because they get paid either way... (But, often paid more on failure.)

There's the rub in this mess... Until that conflict-of-interest is regulated or eliminated this will continue and earnest investment will be sidelined or absent. Growth via investment will not occur.

[Tansy_Gold]

52. Yeah. Someone brought this up yesterday . I think it was

me.

:hi:

And the response was "We don't need no stinkin' rules."

;-)


And they don't. they don't give a rat's ass about conflict of interest or insider trading or any of the other rules that apply to people like you, me, and Martha Stewart.


Now, where are those FRSPs again?



TG

[Demeter]

88. They're On Back Order, in France

They kidnapped the boss when he announced a layoff. We may get a break on the price if they have been pre-used...

[AnneD]

84. That was the most shameful display by alleged Democrats...

and I say alleged because they haven't proven that they are Dem's. It is just like the Debt Restructuring Act that was a gift to the credit card companies.

Time we start taking names and kicking asses. Some of these folks need to lose their seats. All it will take is one or 2 as examples. I can hear some folks whining but we'll lose control of Congress. No we won't I promise. When they see the grass roots mean business-they'll start voting in their own self interest (ie what will get them re-elected). You solve the foreclosure problem-you solve homeless, dropping home value, banking. Only thing it can't solve is the need for jobs-but even the help save their homes in bankruptcy would help stabilize the situation.

[Demeter]

37. Reviving Pecora's Ghost

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-kuttner/reviving-pecoras-ghost_b_195407.html

I think we need another election cycle before this happens, one in which Reid and Pelosi bite the dust.

[AnneD]

94. One subtle thing this article points out.......

and it happens a lot in political elections. Politicians think the election was about them. Obama thinks it is more of an anointing-but it's not. People were voting for a change and willing to put up their own money to get it. Obama came in with the fewest strings attached. It goes to their head and they are surrounded by yes men and they no longer see folks outside the gate. Obama rode on a tidal wave of change, but if he doesn't start doing for the middle class what they put him in office for-you can time his popularity with an egg timer.

He has every reason to fear a populist up rising-because he will be the focus of it. The assessment of tea bagger by some on this board are completely wrong. The government (GOP and DEM)are taking taxpayer money and bailing out Wall Street. What these tea baggers are saying is we are getting screwed-you are stealing our money and bailing out your friends. We know you will be stealing more by expecting us to pay up. We don't believe you will give the middle class a tax break because you need the money so Fuck You we aren't going to pay-so now what are you going to do. Can't steal money we refuse to give you. It will be a revolution this time because, unlike Roosevelt-Obama refused to take a stand against Wall Street and regulate.

I listened to Obama's stump speeches and I voted for his populist promises. He needs to stand by his promises (they are on you tube)Congress needs to get with the program also because there will be a lot of shoe throwing (if they are lucky).

[Tansy_Gold]

106. The revolution becomes an evolution

How many of us right here on SMW are living somewhat off the grid, either by choice or by necessity? How many of us have jumped off the consumer merry-go-round?

It's a beast that must be starved, and we must stop feeding it.

If the good-paying jobs disappear (many/most already have) we must find alternatives. Consume the products of someone else's labor and produce our own. Co-op. Barter. do without. make do.

We cannot have it both ways. there is a tipping point but we haven't reached it yet. even if unemployment is really at 20%, the grocery stores are still full of food, the gas stations still have gas, dead cars are not be abandoned on the side of the road by the hundreds and left there.

I don't know if anyone here heard Joshua Cooper Ramo on Diane Rehm the other day. I only caught a few minutes, but I was fascinated by some of the things he said. Amazon has the first chapter of his book "the Age of the Unthinkable: Why the new world disorder constantly surprises us and what we can do about it" available as a pdf at http://g-ecx.images-amazon.com/images/G/01/LITTLems/The_Age_of_the_Unthinkable.pdf and even that little bit is very intriguing. Like Altemeyer's "The Authoritarians" or Lifton's "Superpower Syndrome," the ideas Ramo presents about human behavior in response to various situations illuminate our current condition in a way that allows us -- those of us who aren't paralyzed with fear -- to prepare for the opportunities that may present themselves.

The attempts to save the institutions that are too big to fail are attempts to stop time. Some day, eventually, Bank of America will fail. Wells Fargo will fail. The GOP will fail. Trying to keep these institutions alive is much like trying to keep Terry Schiavo alive. The body is technically alive, but there is no life left in it. Everything that makes it alive is there, but everything that gives it life is long gone.

We post our bitter sarcasm about the corporations that are intentionally pushing Chrysler and GM into bankruptcy so they can collect on their CDS policies. But if Chrysler fails, there will be a much greater bankruptcy and that is the US treasury as the jobs disappear,teh tax revenues disappear, and there is no more money to be borrowed from China. Will China absorb us? Will we or our children or grandchildren become the colonial slaves of a Chinese elite? :shrug: I dunno. But it could happen.

And that is evolution. That is survival of the fittest, via natural selection. the ongoing (r)evolution.


Tansy Gold

[AnneD]

109. Thanks for the resources....

What is being described is the end game. What I am describing is a possible step. What made Roosevelt so great was that even though he 'went against his class', he managed to save capitalism in the process. His first 100 days left an indelible mark. Obama's fist 100 days have not even made a nick.

Even Faux has not been able to brainwash my GOP leaning Mom. In our last conversation she even said, the problem was obviously the Congress. They have been bought by these bankers and are playing the right against the left and making us (middle class) all look like fools.

Roosevelt breathed new life into our system and the fact that the cycle of boom and bust was prolonged until the 80's when Reagan and Bush (with help from Clinton)managed to undo the regulation of Roosevelt's reforms-gives credence to the reforms.

I don't buy into the inevitability. I think the best way to untangle the knot is to work your way back to the point of unraveling. Put back some of these regulatory laws, strengthen unions or workers rights, and tax reform. The wealthy will always bitch about it but they need to remember-the system is what allowed them to accumulate wealth and privilige in the first place and this is the price of maintaining the very system that has served them well.

[Demeter]

38. GM posts $6bn loss as bankruptcy looms

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7053ff16-3afc-11de-ba91-00144feabdc0.html



Carmaker burns through $10.2bn in cash

[tclambert]

73. Forbes says the NYSE is gonna drop GM from the Dow Jones Industrial Index.

Say Goodbye To GM
Steve Schaefer, 05.07.09, 03:00 PM EDT
No, the automaker's days in the Dow Jones industrial average are numbered.

The United States economy has been moving away from heavy industry for many years. Anyone who hasn't noticed will get a stark reminder soon, when venerated General Motors is ousted from the Dow Jones industrial average.

The automaker has until June 1 to prove it can successfully restructure, or else it will follow Detroit rival Chrysler into bankruptcy. To that end, GM has filed plans with the SEC that include a 1-for-100 reverse stock split and a 50.0% equity stake for the U.S. government in return for forgiveness on $10.0 billion in loans. The split will likely end the automaker's run as one of the big thirty stocks.

"It's sure looking like the endgame for GM (in the index)," said John Prestbo, editor and executive director of Dow Jones Indexes and a "designated helper" who participates in the index's selection process.

Prestbo says every sign points to GM ending up under significant government control or in bankruptcy (after the automaker recorded a $6.0 billion first-quarter loss Thursday any other options are remote) and either result would disqualify the automaker as a Dow component. The second-longest tenured Dow component -- behind General Electric -- GM has been long been the auto industry's delegate within the blue-chip index.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/07/gm-dow-jones-markets-equity-history.html?partner=yahootix
__________________________________________

They might want to rename the index, too. Industrial doesn't seem right. Maybe replace "Industrial" with the word "Bullshit."

DJBSA just closed down about 1.4%.

[Demeter]

56. Crossposted

That was a heckuva deal for Cerberus that bought Chrysler in 2007 for $1.35B
Posted by leveymg in General Discussion
Wed May 06th 2009, 02:30 PM
RESPONSE TO POST: "Surprise, Surprise. Chrysler Won't Repay ($8B in Federal) Loans
Of course, they knew the Treasury was going to do a bail-out. Cerberus only had to put up $1.35 B to acquire the company from Daimler-Benz.

Guess who owns Cerberus? And, had a 51% stake in GMAC Capital? Madoff's primary feeder, Ezra Merkin.

As for Cerberus-Gabriel's actual cash investment, it was negligible. Cerberus took 81 percent control from Daimler-Chrysler in the deal. The payout was structured to minimize cash up-front for Cerberus:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEsBUqQgWJ.4&refer=home

Of Cerberus's total contribution, $5 billion will flow into the industrial business of Chrysler, $1.05 billion into Chrysler's financial services business, while Daimler gets the balance. Daimler will end up paying $650 million in the transaction, including granting a loan of $400 million to Chrysler.


Original Post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5604945

[DemReadingDU]

58. The more I think about this, there's probably CDS involved

Years ago, the corporations knew they were in big trouble. They started doing these Credit Default Swaps, for when the corporations went bankrupt, knowing the taxpayers would bail them all out. So they all did the CDS, on all the corporations, all of them.

So now the taxpayers are supposed to bail out all these corporations and all these CDSs? We don't have enough money, our Treasury is being bled empty, and our national debt is over $11T.

When this bubble bursts, it will be heard around the world.

[MARALE]

63. This reminds me of It a Wonderful Life

When Potter was giving $0.50 for every dollar of the banks stock. George says..."Can't you understand what's happening here? Don't you see what's happening? Potter isn't selling. Potter's buying! And why? Because we're panicking and he's not."

[Dr.Phool]

62. Simon Johnson on whitewash (stress tests)

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/05/about_those_stress_tests.php

He says the window for real reform is gone.

[TheWatcher]

64. Comfortably Numb.

After observing the Market Activity for the past few days, The Economic news, and how it has been presented, and the Public Reaction to it, I can unabatedly conclude, without fear of conviction, that there are 3 things that America and it's Citizens DO NOT WANT, under ANY Circumstances

1. Representative Government- A Government run BY the People, FOR The People, serving the needs and interests of WE THE PEOPLE, ad out forefathers fought and died for, and intended.

2. A Functioning Economic System that serves the needs and interest of WE THE PEOPLE as a whole, instead of the Criminal Mafioso, Banksters, Wall Street, Corrupt Government, and Criminal Corporations that TRULY run this country, and wield the Strings Of Power.

3. The Truth in ANY shape or form. Addicted to Junk Politics and Junk Culture, the American people are willing to sacrifice themselves, their families, their country, and the fate of future generations, blindly believing in Spin, Rhetoric, and any Platitude they are told, as long as it makes them feel good and shapes a false paradigm, a Bubble of Comfort and an Illusion of everything they WANT to believe as True and Factual.

America simply does not have the will, the conviction, nor the desire to be a Free Country any longer.

It is merely getting what it wants, and the monsters who preside over it are gladly feeding the animals what they have ordered, while continuing the systematic destruction of the Democracy born and shaped in the blood of those who fought for it over 233 years ago.

"Fear", "Terror", and "Patriotism" have been replaced with "Hope", "Change", and "Optimism" as the Weapons Of Mass Deception used on the Public to control, manipulate, obfuscate, and debilitate.

We are no longer capable of holding our leaders accountable for their actions, and our country is fast becoming an out of control, imperialistic, lawless land of Outlaw Political and Economic Chaos.

We have simply lost our way, and most of the country shows little to no willingness to attempt to reclaim it.

We Simply Just Can't Be Bothered.

As for today's headlines, they read like something out of a bad Jerry Bruckheimer Script, or perhaps one of Verhoeven's cautionary tales like Robocop or Starship Troopers:

Traders cash in winnings after week's rally

( :wtf: I mean seriously :wtf: This headline looks like the Weekly Reader for off track betting enthusiasts)

Investors lock in profits as unexpected drop in new jobless claims fails to galvanize buyers

* Sara Lepro, AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors heard some more good news about the economy Thursday but locked in profits anyway following huge gains earlier in the week.

Upbeat reports on the job market and retail sales initially sent stocks higher but the gains eroded by mid-morning as traders asked "What's next?" and trimmed their holdings following the 4.8 percent gain so far this week in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

"This is a market that is starting to bake in a lot of positive surprises," said Craig Peckham, a market strategist at Jefferies & Co.

The selling comes ahead of the formal release of results from the government's "stress tests" of bank balance sheets after the closing bell. News reports have already given investors a decent idea of what to expect so analysts aren't predicting big surprises.

A massive two-month rally has left the S&P 500 index in the black for the year and up more than 30 percent from 12-year lows reached in early March. Analysts said it wasn't surprising that the market would take a break after such big gains.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Traders-cash-in-winnings-apf-15168309.html

Yes kids, you NOW live on a Planet where 601,000 Job Losses and declining Retail Sales are considered UPBEAT

But it gets WORSE:

New jobless claims plunge, retail sales improve

New jobless claims plunge unexpectedly to 610,000, while retail sales improve in April


WASHINGTON (AP) -- New applications for jobless benefits plunged to the lowest level in 14 weeks, a possible sign that the massive wave of layoffs has peaked. Still, the number of unemployed workers getting benefits climbed to a new record.

Retail results also improved as discounter Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other stores reported April sales figures that beat expectations. Analysts acknowledged the positive economic signals but cautioned that any recovery will be subdued as long as unemployment stays high.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that the number newly laid off workers applying for benefits dropped to 601,000 last week. That was far better than the rise to 635,000 claims that economists expected.

But the total number of people receiving jobless benefits climbed to 6.35 million, a 14th straight record.

The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims, which smooths out volatility, totaled 623,500 last week, a decrease of more than 30,000 from the high in early April. Goldman Sachs economists have said a decline of 30,000 to 40,000 in the four-week average is needed to signal a peak.

Meanwhile, retailers' business last month was helped by warmer weather, tax refunds, and a shift in the Easter holiday, helping Wal-Mart and many mall clothing chains post better-than-expected results.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-jobless-claims-plunge-apf-15169595.html

Retail Sales were Still DOWN Overall, and they are not showing signs of improvement. Stories of "Ghost Malls" are cropping up all over the country, and Commercial Real Estate is the next shoe to drop.

From the SAME Article:

But consumer sentiment and business in many areas remains weak, and analysts expect a drawn-out recovery as unemployment remains high and other economic woes persist. Warehouse store operator Costco Wholesale Corp. reported a deeper-than-expected same-store sales drop, hurt by the closing of its stores on Easter.

AGAIN :wtf: "Things are very bad, but look how much better things are getting" :crazy: And Costco was hurt because of EASTER? Bullshit. The results in the retail sector are the cause and effect of severe deterioration that has been occurring for MANY MONTHS now, and is STILL WORSENING.

And finally, THIS Gem:

Retailers report smaller sales declines in April

Stores post smaller sales declines in April as shoppers feel a little better about the economy ( :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl: )

* Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Retail Writer
* On Thursday May 7, 2009, 1:16 pm EDT


NEW YORK (AP) -- Consumers enticed by warmer weather and glimmers of hope for the economy bought a few more items in April, helping discounter Wal-Mart Stores and many mall clothing chains post better results for the month than expected.
Related Quotes

Business in many areas remains weak, however, and analysts expect a slow recovery as unemployment remains high and other economic woes persist.

Among merchants that reported sales Thursday, mall-based clothing stores including Gap, American Eagle and Wet Seal posted smaller declines than analysts had forecast. The Children's Place, T.J. Maxx owner TJX Cos. Inc. and The Buckle saw bigger gains than expected.

But warehouse store operator Costco Wholesale Corp. reported a deeper-than-expected same-store sales drop, hurt by the closing of its stores on Easter. :banghead:

"I think we are seeing signs of stabilization that is taking hold," said Michael Dart, senior partner at consulting firm Kurt Salmon Associates. "But this will be a long, drawn-out recovery, rather than a quick rebound" amid a litany of economic problems.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Retailers-report-smaller-apf-15169198.html

Newsflash for the Sheep that keep BUYING this Snake Oil:

THERE WILL BE NO RECOVERY OF ANY KIND WITHOUT JOBS AND IMPROVING WAGES TO MEET COST OF LIVING DEMANDS.

THERE WILL BE NO RECOVERY OF ANY KIND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AND CHANGES IN THE REAL ECONOMY, OF WHICH THERE ARE ABSOLUTELY NO SIGNS OF

There never HAS BEEN.

There never WILL BE.

It's called fucking HISTORY.

But the people continue to believe all of the Propaganda being fed to them.

Meanwhile the Autos go bankrupt, the Banksters continue to rob, steal, and loot unabated, and our "Chosen One" laughs and giggles and spews out soothing rhetoric and platitudes to his flock, as if it MEANS something, and the sheep Bleat and Nod in approval, unquestioning and unrelenting in their faith.

I think if this country were a Monty Python Skit, it would go something like THIS:

"If you hadn't Manipulated the Market and Perpetuated the Propaganda this country would be Pushing up The Daisies!!!!!"

"Bereft Of Life, The Economy Rests In Peace!!!!!"

"It has gone to meet it's Maker!!!!!"

"It has kicked the bucket, It has shuffled off it's mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the choir invisible!!!!!

"THIS Is An EX-DEMOCRACY"



As for me, I think I have finally thrown up my hands and washed them of this insanity that most of our countrymen now refer to as "Reality".

Welcome To The Land Of They Thought They Were Free

America The Deluded: So Full Of Shit It Could Fertilize the Entire Planet For The Next Harvest.

When they turn the pages of history
When these days have passed long ago
Will they read of us with sadness?
For the seeds that we let grow?
We turned our gaze
From the castles in the distance
Eyes cast down
On the path of least resistance

Cities full of hatred
Fear and lies
Withered hearts
And cruel, tormented eyes
Scheming demons
Dressed in kingly guise

Beating down the multitude
And scoffing at the wise

The hypocrites are slandering
The sacred halls of truth
Ancient nobles showering
Their bitterness on youth

Cant we find
The minds that made us strong
Cant we learn
To feel whats right and what's wrong

WHAT'S WRONG?

Cant we raise our eyes
And make a start

Cant we find the minds
To lead us closer to the heart.....

Rush- A Farewell to Kings

[TheMachineWins]

66. or uncomfortably numb in their cognitive dissonance

I just posted in GD that the banking stress tests are a propaganda fraud and my grammar was corrected and I was informed that Obama isn't Bush and isn't trying to misinform anyone.

I think some of these people have a bent axis.

[Tansy_Gold]

71. GD -- enter at your own risk --

I was going to put GD = Obazombieland but decided that was a bit too inflammatory.

SMW is safe, at least for now.

Tansy Gold

[Irish Girl]

86. and I am extremely grateful for that.

When I'm bursting with rage and ready to howl my frustration or doubting whether my perspective is skewed, SMW is a safe haven which helps me retain tiny bits of my sanity.

:grouphug:

[TheWatcher]

98. Oh Dear GOD I saw that TMW.

They can't debate the issues, they can't face reality, and they ignore ANYTHING that threatens their little feel good bubble of Hope, Worship, and Optimism.

So they fall back on ridiculous and juvenile tactics like grammar correction and assaulting you with the SAME Propaganda and Fiction that you present a valid case AGAINST, as if the Propaganda was THE TRUTH to begin with.

GD is Poison.

Best to stick with sane threads like this one.

[DemReadingDU]

67. People have become zombies

Not people here, but people in general, mindless human beings, who have forgotten history what others fought and died for.

:(

[tclambert]

70. Then zombie banks make perfect sense.

Are we talking slow, staggering zombies like in "Night of the Living Dead" and "Shaun of the Dead" or fast, mean zombies like in "28 Days Later?" I'm thinking the people are like the mall walking kind in "Dawn of the Dead." Banks remind me of the skinless zombie dogs in "Resident Evil." Or maybe like the teenage boy zombie in "Return of the Living Dead" who seduces his girlfriend into letting him eat her brains. "If you loved me, you'd let me eat your brains." Yeah, that's the Wall Street firms. And Geithner's the girl.

[Hugin]

68. Breathtaking post (as usual), TheWatcher.

I've noticed a shift in your posts lately, tho.

It looks like a transition from the Orwellian School ("1984") to a more Huxlinian School ("Brave New World").

I know I'm experiencing a change of mind about the current mood-at-large.

Are you sensing this as well?

[TheWatcher]

97. I am, Hugin.

I don't know what I find more frightening.

What TPTB are doing to this country, or the blind and willful ACCEPTANCE and FACILITATION that the country is showing for it.

Things just keep getting darker, and the Public in General keeps feeling BETTER about it, and seems to want MORE OF THE SAME.

This is wholesale insanity.

This foolishness has got to stop.

For ALL of our sakes.

[DemReadingDU]

99. Both are very frightening

and the continuation of both cannot continue. Eventually both will stop. Maybe this year, maybe next year. Something will happen, the bubble is going to burst. I don't know if it will be something deliberately done, or some unintended consequence, perhaps from somewhere else in the world.

[ozymandius]

101. It's Stockholm Syndrome.

We've become so accustomed to the discomfort that we've begun to admire the machine that inflicts pain.

[Demeter]

104. It's Such A Relief to Get the Drooling Idiot and Dr. Strangelove Out

I don't think the general Public has progressed to the next step: REFORM.

I know for a fact that Obama hasn't. And that's where the conflict is growing: between those who want things fixed, and those who want good times.


The country is groaning, screaming and crying for Justice, not lower mortgages and taxes. For a rule by laws for ALL.

[ozymandius]

100. Tocqueville said it well.

"America prefers a soft despotism." ~in French, of course, but it translates easily enough.

Riveting post, The Watcher. Walks in the woods might help relieve the strain evident in your prose. As always, thank you for cutting to what matters in the jangling dissonance of the information superhighway.

[Hugin]

69. Wal-Mart's Move To Drop Sales Reports Has Broad Ramifications (WSJ (I know... I know....))

By Karen Talley
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--With Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) dropping monthly same-store-sales reports, investors are losing a valuable barometer and may also expect other retailers to follow suit in what could be a sea change in the way the industry disseminates information.

Wal-Mart's move "is a loss of a very important indicator and put a laser on the issue," said Peter Brown, vice chairman of consulting firm Kurt Salmon Associates. "They are the best gauge of what is going on with general consumer spending in America."

In tandem with issuing better-than-expected April same-store sales figures on Thursday, Wal-Mart said it was dispensing with the monthly report it has issued since 1979. The move will better align investors with Wal-Mart's own long-term approach to business and also cut volatility caused by holiday shifts, said Chief Financial Officer Tom Schoewe in a statement.

The company will now issue forecasts for the 13 weeks that roughly track its quarterly reporting periods.

Wal-Mart is not the first retailer to stop issuing monthly sales reports. Over the past year, about a half dozen retailers have done so, but they are mainly specialty retailers like AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (ANN), Guess Inc. (GES), Bebe Stores Inc. (BEBE), Cache Inc. (CACH) and Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. (PSUN). Analysts say many of the stores acted because their comparable-store-sales were deteriorating and it is also more of a cost drain on them compared to better-capitalized large retailers.

More... http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090507-719132.html

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

At least WM isn't going to drop them all-together.

[Lucky Luciano]

74. Wells Fargo to issue $6B in common stock.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3866619&mesg_id=3866619

[tclambert]

76. More FBI agents sought to probe financial crimes

* More prosecutors, lawyers, bankruptcy attorneys sought

* Justice Dept. budget at $26.7 billion, up 3.8 percent

By James Vicini

WASHINGTON, May 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department's proposed $26.7 billion budget for fiscal 2010 included more FBI agents to investigate mortgage fraud and white-collar crime, Attorney General Eric Holder said on Thursday.

In prepared testimony to a Senate appropriations subcommittee, Holder said the 3.8 percent increase in the total budget from the previous year included more money for combating financial fraud and for a number of other areas.

Increased funding would be used for "additional federal prosecutors, civil litigators and bankruptcy attorneys to protect investors, the market, the federal government's investment of resources in the financial crisis and the American public," he said.

The FBI has said it has 43 corporate fraud cases under investigation directly related to the financial crisis, and they include allegations of financial statement manipulation, accounting fraud and insider trading.

FBI Director Robert Mueller told Congress in late March the law enforcement agency is bracing for a wave of fraud and corruption cases stemming from the government's multitrillion-dollar effort to stimulate the economy and bail out financial institutions.

Holder said the FBI already has more than doubled the number of agents investigating mortgage scams.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN0738232320090507?rpc=44
______________________________________________________

May I just say, "YAY!" :headbang:

Let me also add, "Lock 'em up!" and "Let's see some big numbers on Ozy's scoreboard!"

[BelgianMadCow]

83. Eurozone interest rates cut to 1% (and key ECB decisions on "extraordinary" measures)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates in the eurozone to a record low of 1%, down from 1.25%.
...
The central bank also agreed a plan to pump about 60bn euros (£53.5bn; $80.6bn) into the eurozone economy by buying up debt.
...
The ECB said it would lend banks unlimited funds for up to 12 months, up from six months.
...
Mr Trichet also said that the European Investment Bank, the EUs long-term lending bank, would be allowed to gain access to ECB funding by taking part in the central bank's money market operations.

more at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8037523.stm

MAN THE SPIGOTS!

This settles it for me - the EU is going down the US slippery slope (after rejecting this path repeatedly). Do you guys have used printing presses on sale by any chance?

As opposed to this article which pegs the debt as euro-denominated covered bonds, a safer type of corporate debt, our local finance paper has it the 60 billion will be repackaged mortgages "with a high credit rating". If you combine the two, you know WHOSE debt they're gonna buy. Where have I heard that before? :freak:. Rating, by whom? The mofos that sold the mess in the first place? And if those bonds are so secure, why buy them? I call BS.

[Demeter]

89. It"s All Electronic Now--No Presses, Paper or Ink Needed

Funny money is so much more fun these days.