STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 8

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 8, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 2

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 7, 2009

Dow... 8,409.85 -102.43 (-1.22%)
Nasdaq... 1,716.24 -42.86 (-2.44%)
S&P 500... 907.39 -12.14 (-1.32%)
Gold future... 915.50 +4.50 (+0.49%)
30-Year Bond 4.26% +0.18 (+4.39%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.30% +0.14 (+4.54%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

On the Subject of Bottoms
BY MICHAEL PANZNER

Bond prices were hit hard, extending their recent slide to multi-month lows as investors demanded higher-than-expected yields at today’s auction of $14 billion of 30-year Treasurys. Not that anyone should be too surprised. According to Bloomberg, increased government spending will likely require Washington to raise a record $3.25 trillion in the current fiscal year -- a tsunami of supply that suggests yields have lots more room on the upside. Also worth noting is the fact that the yield curve is steepening in the U.S. and in other countries where governments are cranking up the printing presses, signaling that investors are losing faith in those who control the public purse strings.

-chart-

Although it’s anyone’s guess what tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report for April will bring, odds are it will show that at least one trend that has been in effect since the 2001 recession is still intact: a steadily declining private sector share of the overall job market. Indeed, with most businesses cutting costs as the supposedly bottoming U.S. economy continues to weigh on orders and revenues, the government is quickly turning into the employer of last resort for a great many Americans.

....

As long as we are on the subject of bottoms, I thought it would be a good time to examine whether we are seeing the kinds of valuations that have existed at the start of prior bull markets. In that vein, I discovered an interesting chart over at the Macro Man blog. Simply put, estimates based on a “bottoms-up” evaluation of operating earnings -- which excludes the string of allegedly one-off losses that much of corporate America has been taking lately -- suggest the market is, at best, trading near fair value -- in other words, it’s not cheap.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Average Workweek Apr
Briefing.com 33.2
Consensus 33.2
Prior 33.2

08:30 Hourly Earnings Apr
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Apr
Briefing.com -590K
Consensus -600K
Prior -663K

08:30 Unemployment Rate Apr
Briefing.com 8.9%
Consensus 8.9%
Prior 8.5%

10:00 Wholesale Inventories Mar
Briefing.com -0.9%
Consensus -1.0%
Prior -1.5%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

33. NFPs drop 539,000 - Unemployment rate @ 8.9%

01. U.S. April nonfarm payrolls fall 539,000
8:30 AM ET, May 08, 2009

02. U.S. April unemployment rate rises to 8.9%
8:30 AM ET, May 08, 2009

03. U.S. April payrolls largely as expected
8:30 AM ET, May 08, 2009

04. U.S. April manufacturing payrolls down 149,000
8:30 AM ET, May 08, 2009

05. U.S. April services payrolls down 269,000
8:30 AM ET, May 08, 2009

06. Record 27% out of work longer than 6 months
8:30 AM ET, May 08, 2009

07. U.S. April average hourly earnings up 1 cent
8:30 AM ET, May 08, 2009

08. U.S. jobs fall 5.7 million, or 4.1%, in recession
8:30 AM ET, May 08, 2009

[burf]

34. March revised

-699,000 from -633,000.

[Dr.Phool]

37. 10% off. What was March, just a guess?

[tclambert]

61. U-6 for April, 2009 from BLS

U-6 = Total unemployed (official unemployment or U-3), plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

The officially announced unemployment rate is the seasonally adjusted U-3.

Seasonally adjusted U-6: 15.8% for April vs. 15.6% for March.

Unadjusted U-6: 15.4% for April vs. 16.2% for March.


Seasonally adjusted 2009:
January 13.9%
February 14.8%
March 15.6%
April 15.8%

Unadjusted 2009:
January 15.4%
February 16.0%
March 16.2%
April 15.4%

http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab12.htm

[tclambert]

75. More interesting numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

(All seasonally adjusted.)

Civilian Labor Force 2009:
January: 153,716,000
February: 154,214,000
March: 154,048,000
April: 154,731,000 (an increase from March to April of 683,000)

Employment Level (# of jobs) 2009:
January: 142,099,000
February: 141,748,000 (a decrease of 351,000)
March: 140,887,000 (a decrease of 861,000)
April: 141,007,000 (an increase from March to April of 120,000)

Unemployment Level (# of jobless) 2009:
January: 11,616,000
February: 12,467,000
March: 13,161,000
April: 13,724,000 (an increase from March to April of 563,000)
_____________________________________________

Look, B+C=A. Don't you love it when things add up?

Yes, that middle one does in fact say the number of jobs increased in April. The Civilian Labor Force population increased by more, however, so we ended up falling behind by 563,000. The population went up a lot in April. I'm wondering if that is because of graduations? It says "seasonally adjusted" data, though.

When this recession began, the number of jobs was about 146,665,000. So, we're about 5.6 million lower. Meanwhile, the damn population keeps growing. Obviously, we either need a job creation plan or a population destruction plan.

[Robbien]

88. Civilian Jobs increased in April?

The government added 60,000 positions for Census related jobs in April, but where in the world did a net of 120,000 jobs be added to the civilian sector? Could there really be that many summer jobs offsetting all the massive amounts of job cuts in construction and finance?

[tclambert]

92. Not sure if civilian means non-military or non-governmental.

Don't know if the FBI counts. Don't know if Blackwater, er, Xe counts.

I do know a couple of ice cream places opened. They must have a couple of employees each. So there's 4.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises above $57 on economic recovery hopes

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $57 a barrel Friday in Asia as investors bet that a year-end recovery in the global economy will boost oil demand.

Traders have shaken off weeks of dismal economic news amid signs that the slowdown has eased and a recovery could gain steam by the end of the year.

....

On Thursday, several U.S. retailers, led by Wal-Mart Stores Inc., reported better-than-expected April sales, and new applications for jobless benefits fell to the lowest level in 14 weeks, signaling a wave of layoffs may have peaked.

Still, some traders are skeptical that the recent run-up in prices is warranted, given the slump in consumer demand and surging crude inventories. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the global economy will shrink 1.3 percent this year.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for June delivery rose 3.44 cents to $1.70 a gallon and heating oil gained 3.22 to $1.52 a gallon. Natural gas for June delivery jumped 5.2 cent to $4.13 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Hugin]

17. Well, there goes the Economic Recovery.

:shrug:

It's up over $0.29 a gallon here in the last week.

[tclambert]

22. It does seem the oil bidness is determined to ruin the country.

Left to themselves they would happily run us up to the last drop of oil, without making any plans for a future source of energy, just as long as each quarter showed big profits for Exxon-Mobil. Then all the Texas oilmen would get big retirement packages, and everybody else could go to hell.

For 36 years, we should have had national plans in place for moving past an oil-based energy economy. Brazil did it. Why couldn't we? Because all those Presidents, Democrats and Republicans, weren't really leaders, just corporate tools, who allowed, or in Cheney's case specifically asked, the oil companies to design our energy policy.

[Hugin]

23. Yes, I agree.

Thirty-six years is a long time to go without a plan.

But, it's not like there weren't any people trying to work up alternatives... However, Big Oil's resistance hasn't been exactly passive either.

[AnneD]

38. Carter tried....

What did Reagan do when he got in-reversed everything.

[Wednesdays]

45. Exactly...Carter tried, and he paid the price

The gasoline price spike in 1980 (among other things) and the ensuing recession was no accident, IMHO.

[AnneD]

59. Your Dirty Harry quote for this situation.....

Harry Callahan: Well, when an adult male is chasing a female with intent to commit rape, I shoot the bastard. That's my policy.
The Mayor: Intent? How did you establish that?
Harry Callahan: When a naked man is chasing a woman through an alley with a butcher's knife and a hard-on, I figure he isn't out collecting for the Red Cross!

The Mayor: He's got a point.

[Demeter]

65. You're Jumping the Gun, If You'll Pardon the Expression

Gotta save the good stuff for WEE.

[AnneD]

83. Well....

just in case something happens to me-I am leaving some morsels here that can be shared. Harry left us plenty. I haven't done much with Magnum Force and the Dead Pool.

[ozymandius]

4. World markets gain after US bank test; jobs eyed

HONG KONG – Asian stocks ended the week on a high note Friday as investors braced for a key U.S. jobs report that could bolster — or undercut — a growing belief that recession in the world's largest economy is starting to ease. European markets opened higher.

....

Investors will be eyeing Friday's U.S. jobs survey — regarded by Wall Street as the most important economic news each month — for any evidence of that rebound. Fewer job losses would be a boost for Asia and its export-driven economies, sensitive as they are to the spending moods of U.S. consumers.

....

Early in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.7 percent, while Germany's DAX and France's CAC-40 each added 1.4 percent. With U.S. futures higher, Wall Street was poised to rebound. Dow futures were up 65 points, or 0.8 percent, to 8,452 and S&P 500 futures climbed 7.3, or 0.8 percent, to 914.30.

In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average gained 47.13 points, or 0.5 percent, to 9,432.83, setting a fresh six-month high. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed up 171.98 points, or 1 percent, to 17389.87.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090508/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets_31

[rfranklin]

10. Banks insolvent! Full speed ahead!

Futures are up. Let's party!

[ozymandius]

12. There's just no helping some people.

Willful ignorance is an impenetrable defense for one's actions.

[Hugin]

13. Isn't this exactly the opposite of what the IMF was saying?

"Fewer job losses would be a boost for Asia and its export-driven economies, sensitive as they are to the spending moods of U.S. consumers."

It's wrong to assume that since fewer Americans are going to be at the soup lines each month that the rest of us are going to rush out and buy stuff we don't need.

"jobs eyed" :scared:

[AnneD]

64. Our Dirty Harry quote......

Harry Callahan: Are you trying to tell me that ballistics can't match the bullet up to this rifle?
District Attorney Rothko: It does not matter what ballistics can do. This rifle might make a nice souvenir. But it's inadmissible as evidence.
Harry Callahan: And who says that?
District Attorney Rothko: It's the law.
Harry Callahan: Well, then the law is crazy.

[tclambert]

24. "U.S. jobs survey — regarded by Wall Street as the most important economic news each month "

They have a funny way of showing they regard it as "the most important economic news each month." Their actions seem to show they ignore it, or do the opposite of what the news implies.

Today, of course, the numbers will be lower than in previous months, and that gives Mr. and Mrs. Howell an excuse to pop the champagne corks.

"Cheers, Lovey, only half a million little people lost their jobs last month."

"Oh, Thurston, does that mean our bank will soon be solvent again?"

"Now, now, don't spoil the festive mood, dear."

"How much longer must we hide on this tiny island?"

"Oh, hush, hush, Lovey! We mustn't let the staff hear. They still think we're marooned."

[AnneD]

58. LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

I'll take another slice of coconut cream pie.

[Demeter]

66. I Sense an Upcoming WEE Theme

It will have to be Memorial Weekend. Please remind me!

[AnneD]

72. I thought the same thing.......

:rofl:

[tclambert]

76. Goody. I have a whole thesis worked out for what was really going on with the Minnow.

An uncharted island that close to Hawaii? Ha!

[Hugin]

77. It was a fictional TeeVee comedy, dude.

:eyes:

:rofl:

[Hugin]

85. Unlike "I Dream of Jeannie" which was certainly an integral part of the MK-ULTRA program.

Which I throughly detail in my soon-to-be-published manifesto.

Look for it at Amazon.com. (Kindel version available)

Buy it.

Read it.

Believe it.

[Tansy_Gold]

87. You're tooooooo funny!

:rofl:







Tansy Gold, who really did write a thesis on romance novels. . . . .

[Hugin]

89. I consider it a gift...

A gift from watching way too much of the History Channel late at night. ;)

[tclambert]

95. Maj. Nelson was almost as dumb as Darrin Stephens.

My rule is if you hook up with a beautiful blonde who has magical powers and is willing to do anything for you . . .

LET HER!

[Hugin]

98. Good rule... Except for one thing.

Don't marry 'em.

I did and now I still have to take out the garbage and beg for the occasional Banana Cream Pie.

That 'do anything for you' stuff fades after about the sixth season. ;)

[tclambert]

94. "It was a fictional TeeVee comedy, dude."

That's what the Howells WANT you to think.

(This might be a good time to invest in tin foil.)

[ozymandius]

5. U.S. banks race to fill $74.6 billion stress test hole

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. regulators told top banks on Thursday to raise $74.6 billion to build a capital cushion officials hope will restore faith in financial firms and set a course out of the deepest recession in decades.

Within minutes of release of the bank "stress test" results, which showed smaller capital needs than once feared, several of the 10 firms needing capital immediately issued statements detailing how they planned to raise it.

Bank of America Inc, which accounted for almost half of the total capital shortfall with $33.9 billion to be raised, said it planned to sell assets, issue $17 billion in common stock, and take other steps to fill the hole.

....

MIXED VIEWS ON CREDIBILITY

The relatively modest size of the hole discovered by regulators carrying out the tests, which were based on an "adverse" economic scenario, led to both applause from investors who believe the worst is over and skepticism among those who think the examination wasn't rigorous enough.

....

The doubters believe the banks will need much more of a capital cushion than stipulated by the regulators, as the U.S. jobless rate soars and the housing market and economy takes time to pull out of a funk, driving up credit losses.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090508/bs_nm/us_financial_banks

[ozymandius]

6. Yet More Stress Test Doubts

From Naked Capitalism:

The unduly charitable coverage of the stress tests continues. Even though the New York Times does raise a few questions, it still features industry preening and misses some of the important lapses:

Industry executives reacted with jubilation, as if they had proved their critics wrong and passed the tests with flying colors.

“The results off the stress tests should put to rest the harmful speculation we have seen over the past few months,” declared Edward L. Yingling, president of the American Bankers Association, hours before the results were even made public.

Investors had already bid up share prices of the big banks in reaction to leaks about the results earlier this week.

Regulators and bank executives alike predicted that most of the institutions would be able to build up the necessary capital from private sources — either by selling off assets or by converting shares of preferred stock into ordinary stock.

Now on the one hand, the Times does get credit for distancing itself from the bankers' crowing about the outcome. However, there is nary a word in the story about:

1. The fact quite a few of the banks negotiated their fundraising requirements down, calling the integrity of the process into question

2. No mention that the purpose of this exercise from the outset was to prove the banking system to be solvent. What kind of a test is that?

3. No mention that asset sales (the reason Citi was able to negotiate its fundraising down from $10 billion, and presumably others as well) are almost certain to be a non-starter.

more at link...

[Demeter]

67. “ stress tests result should put to rest the harmful speculation we have seen over the past months"

No, I don't think so.

[ozymandius]

7. Even More on Stress Tests

from Calculated Risk:

Earlier I pointed out that some of the numbers seemed puzzling.

Peter Eavis at the WSJ has a similar reaction, but uses a different example: U.S. Banks' Not-So-Stressful Test:

The government's 13.8% worst-case loss-rate for second-lien mortgages seems fair. But it is a stretch to think Wells Fargo, with its large home-equity book focused on stressed housing markets, will have a lower-than-sector loss rate of 13.2%.

....

Unfortunately the Fed grouped Construction & Development loans (C&D) in with other CRE loans. The losses on C&D at loans are rising sharply, and it would have been easier to analyze if the Fed had released the data by each separate CRE category.

more at link...

[ozymandius]

9. more critical analysis from Calculated Risk

excerpt:

The projected $600 billion in losses over the next two years under the "more adverse" scenario are in addition to the estimated $400 billion in losses and write downs are already taken by these 19 banks. Because of existing resources, future earnings, and planned transactions, the Fed estimates the banks need to raise $75 billion in capital. This is a huge question mark: Is this enough?

....

Some of the numbers don't make much sense. Using BofA as an example, the indicative two year loss rates for first lien mortgages are 7% to 8.5%, and I believe BofA is in worse shape (because of their acquisition of Countrywide) than most banks. So I would expect losses substantially higher than the indicative rates. Instead they were lower (only 6.8% of first lien mortgages).

And I was expecting more details. Under Commercial Real Estate (CRE), the Fed grouped Construction & Development (C&D), Multi-family, and other non-residential in the same category. However the indicative loss rates suggest these assets perform very differently (C&D the worst), and it would help to break out each category. Especially since it appears the banks have under reserved for CRE losses.

How can BofA only have 9.1% in CRE losses over two years under the "more adverse" scenario? I'd like to see their exposure to C&D, and other categories.

Also, I was expecting to see the losses and loss rates for both the baseline and more adverse scenarios. Although the "more adverse" is the new baseline, I was hoping to construct a new scenario based on differences in these losses. Without the baseline data, this is impossible.

much more...

[Demeter]

14. I Sincerely Doubt that There Are Enough Rich Fools In the World

to willingly give the banks $75 billion to lose.

I suspect the TARP money is yet again being recycled into bank shares, to further pauperize the shareholders. either that, or they think China has an appetite for owning zombie banks.

[DemReadingDU]

26. there has to be a reason that the FDIC credit line was increased to $500B

This is a lot of money, considering the limit was only $50B before. So are they thinking bigger banks will fail anyway because they won't be able to increase their capital after the 'stress test'?

[AnneD]

68. Our Dirty Harry quote for this situation.....

Harry Callahan: Well, I just work for the city, Briggs!
Lieutenant Briggs: So do I, longer than you, and I never had to take my gun out of its holster once. I'm proud of that.
Harry Callahan: Well, you're a good man, lieutenant. A good man always knows his limitations...

[Demeter]

112. sounds Like Pelosi and Her Naked Table

[ozymandius]

116. Naked?

Harry Callahan: When a naked man is chasing a woman through an alley with a butcher's knife and a hard-on, I figure he isn't out collecting for the Red Cross!

[Hugin]

15. They'll get it by jacking interest rates and fees to levels...

that would make Al Capone swoon.

All sanctioned by some DUers in GD... of course.

I'm still amazed that most of those in Washington and Wall Street still seem oblivious that Taxpayers and Consumers are the same people.

[Wednesdays]

46. As long as American Idol comes on and there's cold beer in the fridge

90% of the taxpayers/consumers don't give a shit.

[DemReadingDU]

50. even if unemployment has run out, and they still have credit card

people are happy happy.


When people have lost everything and have no credit, no shelter, and are hungry, that's when they will wake up.

[Wednesdays]

118. They'll wake up,

drink all the beer in the fridge, and pass out. When they come to with a massive hangover, they'll blame the Democrats. 'Cause the teevee told them so.

[tclambert]

25. If the stress test didn't involve a reamer,

then it wasn't rigorous enough.

[AnneD]

70. Dang TC.....

that sounds like a Dirty Harry quote.......


battered crook has accused Harry of beating him
Chief: Have you been following that man?
Harry Callahan: Yeah, I've been following him on my own time. And anybody can tell I didn't do that to him.
Chief: How?
Harry Callahan: Cause he looks too damn good, that's how!

[tclambert]

78. I almost said corn cob instead of reamer.

What movie does THAT bring to mind? Do you hear banjo music?

[AnneD]

81. Sueeeeeeiiiiiii

and me all out of Kentucky Jelly.:spray:

[Festivito]

8. Debt: 05/06/2009 11,226,807,485,330.04 (DOWN 656,886,511.44) (Tiny debt fall.)

(A tiny fall in both debts. Do they only Friday dump the increases? Thursday may have done what Friday afternoon will tell.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,927,755,259,710.47 + 4,299,052,225,619.57
DOWN 58,764,073.21 + DOWN 598,122,438.23

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.79, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,301,115 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $36,652.85.
A family of three owes $109,958.54. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,520,941,556.69.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,582,023,808.24.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 74 reports in 106 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.04B$ per report, 0.13B$/day so far.
There were 149 reports in 218 days of FY2009 averaging 8.07B$ per report, 5.51B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,355 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 18.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/06/2009 11,226,807,485,330.04 BHO (UP 599,930,436,416.96 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,202,082,588,417.60 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/15/2009 +044,205,591,028.33 ------------**********
04/17/2009 -038,696,374,097.81 -
04/20/2009 +000,193,620,436.16 ------------******** Mon
04/21/2009 -000,363,758,089.93 ---
04/22/2009 +000,051,738,680.14 ------------*******
04/23/2009 -012,857,484,009.95 -
04/24/2009 -000,133,239,400.23 ---
04/27/2009 +000,285,896,492.06 ------------******** Mon
04/28/2009 +000,154,949,620.57 ------------********
04/29/2009 -034,727,762,120.64 -
04/30/2009 +079,347,503,951.43 ------------**********
05/01/2009 -003,202,605,992.57 --
05/04/2009 +000,068,750,275.89 ------------******* Mon
05/05/2009 +000,122,936,524.80 ------------********
05/06/2009 -000,058,764,073.21 ----

34,390,999,225.04 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,562,175,682,070.97 in last 230 days.
That's 1,562B$ in 230 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 154% of that highest year ever only in 230 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 230 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3865535&mesg_id=3865592

[Festivito]

101. Debt: 05/07/2009 11,256,266,640,050.20 (UP 29,459,154,720.16) (Typical rise.)

(A not too awful increase just in time for the Friday dump. Already enjoyed my Star Trek. Yum.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,955,434,473,527.65 + 4,300,832,166,522.55
UP 27,679,213,817.18 + UP 1,779,940,902.98

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.79, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,307,286 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $36,748.28.
A family of three owes $110,244.85. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,704,263,918.84.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,449,793,540.48.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 107 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.18B$ per report, 0.24B$/day so far.
There were 150 reports in 219 days of FY2009 averaging 8.21B$ per report, 5.62B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,354 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 18.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/07/2009 11,256,266,640,050.20 BHO (UP 629,389,591,137.12 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,231,541,743,137.80 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/17/2009 -038,696,374,097.81 -
04/20/2009 +000,193,620,436.16 ------------******** Mon
04/21/2009 -000,363,758,089.93 ---
04/22/2009 +000,051,738,680.14 ------------*******
04/23/2009 -012,857,484,009.95 -
04/24/2009 -000,133,239,400.23 ---
04/27/2009 +000,285,896,492.06 ------------******** Mon
04/28/2009 +000,154,949,620.57 ------------********
04/29/2009 -034,727,762,120.64 -
04/30/2009 +079,347,503,951.43 ------------**********
05/01/2009 -003,202,605,992.57 --
05/04/2009 +000,068,750,275.89 ------------******* Mon
05/05/2009 +000,122,936,524.80 ------------********
05/06/2009 -000,058,764,073.21 ----
05/07/2009 +027,679,213,817.18 ------------**********

17,864,622,013.89 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,591,634,836,791.13 in last 231 days.
That's 1,592B$ in 231 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 156% of that highest year ever only in 231 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 231 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3867580&mesg_id=3867600

[ozymandius]

11. New York Fed Chairman, With Ties to Goldman, Resigns

He sounds a bit defensive...

The chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Stephen J. Friedman, abruptly resigned on Thursday, days after a newspaper article raised questions about his ties to his former employer, Goldman Sachs.

....

Mr. Friedman, who led or co-led Goldman from 1990 until 1994 and remains a director, was chairman of the New York Fed at the same time. He also held a substantial stake in the firm as the Federal Reserve drew up plans to keep Wall Street’s banks afloat.

....

Because the New York Fed approved a request by Goldman to become a bank holding company, the chairman’s involvement in Goldman was a violation of Fed policy, The Wall Street Journal reported in an article this week.

The New York Fed had asked for a waiver, which, after about two and a half months, the Fed granted, the newspaper said. During that time, Mr. Friedman bought 37,300 more Goldman shares, which have since risen $1.7 million in value.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/08/business/08fed.html?ref=business

[Demeter]

16. YES! YES! YES!

Does this go on your header, Ozy? It ought to!

I'm thinking more and more that we need a Goldman tracker, until each and every Alumnus is behind bars or in exile.

[Tansy_Gold]

28. We need a daily tracker, like the Debt watch or Dollar watch

Like a daily update on all the financial criminals and what's happening to them. Each of us could contribute what we have with links to info?
Like kind of a mini wiki or something?


Tansy Gold, who is NOT raising her hand

[Hugin]

36. That reminds me...

I'm redoing and renovating the SMWEI based on new data sources.

As I pointed out once before... There's this skew in the Index. After running the data up and down the last 20 years (I don't feel comfortable going much outside of that boundary because of very large changes in the Economic situation outside of that timeline... Population, being one of them.) the Index has never been above a +4 and that was for a very short time. This may be reality. Maybe the situation for the Median American has never been any greater and that was in the mid '90s...

What is more alarming is that for the vast majority of the time, it has been a negative value. Below the zero which I've been assuming is neutral... Not getting ahead or behind.

Very depressing... :/

[DemReadingDU]

43. Index being negative most of the time

Isn't that what has been occurring the past 20 years? Perception looked good, but reality wasn't. People have had this false sense of affluency for the past 20 years with easy credit, buy now/pay later. People perceived they were doing great! But reality was they were going in the hole. Even with both parents working, they still couldn't get ahead.

[Hugin]

49. And now I've heard stories of Both Partners working a combined 7 jobs...

Now, what's wrong with that picture!

I translate it to mean that in a real reality those seven jobs represent enough work for 1 full time and 1 part time job.

But, TPTB have fractionalized the work so they can pay bottom dollar for the labor and as a cherry on top, pay no benefits.

Discarding any fractional worker at their whim...

This is exactly what I'm talking about when I speak of people... Human Beings, for crying out loud... being treated as a commodity.

Now, it's gone even beyond that (If you can believe it.) in that they are Offshoring those fractional jobs...

Edit: Fixed the subject so it didn't look like the Couple was working 7 jobs each.

[DemReadingDU]

51. When do they sleep?

Working 7 jobs, each? Is that 1 job per day?

[Hugin]

54. Yes, In some cases...

One Partner works 4 jobs and the other 3.

(Remember during the 2004 elections... Bush's encounter with the 3 job Woman? He thought it to be a very good thing.)

It's cobbling together a living out of a variety of so-called 'part time' fractionalized service sector 'jobs'.

This mode has become increasingly common recently to the point it may soon be the 'norm'.

Now, mind you... These aren't 'uneducated' people. Many have completed High School... (And tried College only to walk away with a Student Loan debt load.)

[DemReadingDU]

57. if this is the new 'norm'

then your index shouldn't be negative.

I'm thinking people aren't happy with this new 'norm'. They miss what their parents had in a standard 40 hour week job, with plenty of free time and discretionary spending. Who wants to work all these jobs in order to pay bills, and still be underwater in debt? Something is majorly wrong.

[Hugin]

60. Yep, there is a definite malfunction here.

Starting off with the sick statistical lie that $50,000.00/year is 'Middle-class'... And that's been the definition of 'Middle-class' as long as I can remember! :wtf: The difference now is that to even get that far people have to expect to work multiple jobs. Since when is working multiple jobs (with absolutely no QOL time) 'Middle-class'?

People are finding a way to survive... In what is increasingly an environment hostile to them.

Yes, the situation is very broken and the more I look at it the more discouraged and depressed I become.

I have to ask... Is it slavery yet?

[tclambert]

80. Shhhh! Massa might hear you!

[Dr.Phool]

62. When my dad first retired in '86, he moved to the Phoenix area.

It was his first encounter with a "right to work" state.

He got a job, and was amazed at the low wages people worked for. One night, he went to a party at a friend of his nephew's house. The guy was a carpenter by trade, and he had a really nice house. My dad asked him, "How in the hell do you afford a place like this, on the wages that they pay down here"?

The guy replied, "I'll tell you how. I work 2 or 3 jobs all the time. My wife works 3 jobs. And if we lose one of them, we're in bankruptcy".

Who knew Arizona was ahead of their time? Besides Tansy, I mean.

[Hugin]

74. Case study: A Hairdresser.

From what I understand the booth fees charged to the 'Independent Contractor' Hairdressers around here averages $650.00/month.

They also have to provide their own supplies... Shampoo, Coloring... etc.
Say around $150.00/month.

That's $800.00/month just to work.

At around $25.00/simple cut-and-wash it's 32 cuts/month just to break even. At $40.00 it's around 20.

Now, if I add in what's necessary life-support costs...

Since they aren't home because both are working and they have kids... Which it's common to have kids.
Say around (when I was paying it) $200.00/month.
Rent... $1,000.00/month
Food... $450.00/month
Energy/Taxes/etc... $150.00/month

That's $1,800.00/month or 72 $25.00 cuts or 45 $40.00 cuts.

Total... 104 cheap cuts or 60 more expensive cuts per month just to get by... Oh, and each and every one of those cuts better show up every month.

[Tansy_Gold]

100. As an "independent contractor" I recognize this all too well

I'm fortunate that my costs aren't nearly that high: no rent for the workplace and I'm at home so I can do the laundry and stuff while I "work." But the rest of it, yeah, except your estimates are probably too low.

Child care can run $200/week in some places; my son and D-I-L are working different shifts to keep that to a minimum until their son is in school.

Utilities (phone, cell phone, water, gas, electricity, cable, internet, etc.) are more often in the $300-400 range.

Don't forget transporation costs -- car payment, insurance, gas, maintenance.

A family with housing (rent or mortgage) and children cna't get by comfortably on less than about $4000/month. As a single person with no mortgage, no kids, little debt, I can do it on $1500/month but that's not a lavish lifestyle. Therefore, the non-financial benefits of the contractor job make it both attractive and feasible for me, but it's not a way to get rich.

Oh, and there are many "cheap cuts" places in Arizona where a hair cut is $10 or less.


Tansy Gold, whose hair does not get cut.. . . . . by anyone

[Demeter]

63. Of Course You Aren't

How's today treating you, Tansy? I'm in agony from digging in the rain yesterday. Dirt gets a lot heavier when it's wet, and then there's trying not to fall. But spring is running out of our fingers, so at least while it isn't snowing, I dig.

[Tansy_Gold]

99. Actually, I'm better today.

I had light work yesterday, probably for the week-end, too. Managed to get in some walking, which helps. Talked to a friend this morning who had the same thing, said it took him two months to get over it. Said he knew EXACTLY what I was going through.

One thing I have to do is cut down on the hours spent at the desk. 8-10 on paid work plus 2-4 for personal stuff is what's causing the problem. Paid work can be cut back slightly and I'm gonna start looking into getting a laptop for some of the personal stuff. Anybody have any recommendations?


Tansy Gold, feeling almost human for the first time in two weeks.

[Demeter]

113. Yoga?

It's supposed to cure everything, they say.

[Wednesdays]

48. A newspaper article did it, huh?

Eh...he wasn't aware of potential conflict-of-interest until a newspaper article pointed it out for him. :eyes:

[Demeter]

69. Say Rather That the Authorities Weren't Aware of It

until the press sprung a leak.

That's why newspapers are dying. That's why the Internet is thriving.

[AnneD]

79. Dirty Harry has a quote for that.....

"Go ahead. Make my day."

First used in Sudden Impact-the 3rd and best Dirty Harry Movie produced and directed by Eastwood.

[DemReadingDU]

82. I'm going to need to do some googling

Dirty Harry had a bunch of good stuff! Except, I've forgotten most of them.

[tclambert]

93. 5 movies in the Dirty Harry canon.

Bound to be some good material there. Except it's Clint Eastwood. He probably said less in 5 movies than most actors do in one monologue.

[Demeter]

18. Tech, poor auction hits Wall St.; banks up late

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090507/bs_nm/us_markets_stocks_55



NEW YORK (Reuters) – Wall Street stocks slid on Thursday as investors took profits from the technology sector's recent surge, while analyst downgrades hurt telecoms and a tepid response to a government bond auction raised fears about public finances.

Bank stocks also succumbed to profit-taking, with the KBW Bank index (.BKX) dropping 3.5 percent, a day after leaked results from so-called stress tests suggested that most U.S. banks were healthier than previously thought.

But stock index futures rose after the official government results were released at 5 p.m. EDT (2100 GMT) as regulators told leading banks to raise $74.6 billion to build a capital cushion officials hope will restore faith in financial firms and set a course out of the deepest recession in decades.

Shares of several major banks, including Citigroup (C.N) also rose after the bell, with Citi gaining 6.6 percent to $4.06 after regulators said the bank's capital need was $5.5 billion. Citi had ended the regular session down 1.3 percent.

"The results should end the concerns about failure or nationalization," said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at NorthStar Investment Management Corp in Chicago. The Select Sector SPDR Financial ETF (XLF.P) rose 1.2 percent after the bell.

In the regular session investors worried that poor demand for government debt could raise the cost of capital and hamper chances of a U.S. economic recovery.

U.S. debt prices slid, sending the 30-year Treasury bond yield to its highest since November.

"The auction is big news because now it's showing that maybe the Chinese don't want our bonds. If the cost of capital for the United States becomes more expensive, then the recession is going to take that much longer to get out of," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.

Shares of International Business Machines Corp (IBM.N), down 2 percent to $102.59, were the Dow's top drag, while Apple Inc (AAPL.O), off 2.6 percent, pressured the Nasdaq.

The semiconductor index (.SOXX) fell 6 percent, but is still up 33.6 percent since the broader market's 12-year low of March 9. Tech has provided a crucial underpinning of the market's run-up since then, along with bank stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) dropped 102.43 points, or 1.2 percent, to 8,409.85. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) slid 12.14 points, or 1.32 percent, to 907.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) fell 42.86 points, or 2.44 percent, to 1,716.24.

The $14 billion Treasury bond auction met below-average demand from investors, who bid aggressively to force the government to pay a higher yield as it pushed ahead with plans to help finance its burgeoning budget deficit with more longer-term debt.

Other tech casualties included Hewlett-Packard (HPQ.N), off 5 percent at $34.53 and Qualcomm (QCOM.O), down 3.2 percent to $42.34. Shares of networking equipment maker Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) fell 3.4 percent to $18.95 despite the company posting a stronger-than-expected quarterly profit late on Wednesday.

Homebuilders were also losers on Thursday, with the Dow Jones home construction index (.DJUSHB) off 6 percent. Shares of big manufacturers were hit hard, with Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) sliding 5.2 percent to $37.92.

At Thursday's closing, the S&P 500 showed a gain of 34.1 percent from the March 9 low, paring back from the rise of 36 percent it had through Wednesday session.

Among banks stocks, shares of JPMorgan (JPM.N) slid 5.3 percent to $35.24 in regular trade, and were little changed after the stress test results. The government concluded that the No. 2 U.S. bank had no need to raise additional capital.

Shares of Bank of America (BAC.N) rose 6.8 percent after the bell to $14.43 after regulators said the largest U.S. bank would need $33.9 billion of fresh capital, in line with what had been leaked earlier. The stock had ended regular trading up 6.5 percent.

Wells Fargo (WFC.N) shares slid 7.8 percent to $24.76 in regular trading. After the bell the bank announced a $6 billion common stock offering after regulators told the bank to raise $13.7 billion of capital by November 9.

Trading volume was active on the New York Stock Exchange, with about 1.97 billion shares changing hands, above last year's estimated daily average volume of 1.49 billion, while on Nasdaq, about 3.22 billion shares traded, also well above last year's daily average of 2.28 billion.

Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones by a more than 9-to-5 ratio on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

[Demeter]

19. Oil groups to end 40-year exile from Iraq

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/86834368-3a6c-11de-8a2d-00144feabdc0.html

International oil companies are preparing to go back into Iraq by the end of the year, in spite of Baghdad’s failure to pass an oil law and continuing concerns over security.

BP and Royal Dutch Shell are among companies expected to bid for oil service contracts in June, with the long-term objective of being allowed to develop the world’s third-largest oil reserves.

Executives from many of the world’s biggest oil companies – expelled almost 40 years ago – have assured Iraqi officials they plan to commit to working in the country.

Jeroen van der Veer, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, said his company was participating in the bidding process and that the new contract terms had made it more attractive to invest there. “Yes, sure. In the end, you have to make up your mind,” he said.

The service contracts, which are divided into six groups of fields, include up front guarantees of soft loans totalling $2.6bn (€2bn, £1.7bn).

A BP spokesman said: “If successful, we could see ourselves back in Iraq by the end of the year barring any unforeseen delays.”

For five years, following the US invasion of Iraq, oil executives had been insisting on better security and the passage of a hydrocarbon law – seen as crucial by the previous US administration as an indicator of political stability – before they would be willing to invest billions of dollars. Now the companies say they are prepared to return to Iraq even though the country’s oil law remains bogged down by political discord and its fragile peace faces two imminent tests: the forthcoming elections and the US military’s departure.

Thamir Ghadhban, chairman of the advisory board to Iraq’s prime minister and a former oil minister, told the Financial Times that the coming bidding round – the first since the end of the 2003 war – would be heavily subscribed.

“International oil companies are short of reserves and opportunities and us countries control almost 88 per cent of oil reserves. The only real opportunity is Iraq.”

He said an oil law would no doubt make the companies “more satisfied, but we are not working from a void. We have laws”. He said not a single company had come to him with second thoughts or to declare it would not bid because of the absence of a hydrocarbons law. “The oil companies will bid and it will be competitive.”

BP, Shell Total and ExxonMobil were part of the consortium of oil companies whose assets were appropriated by Baghdad when the country nationalised the industry in early 1973.

Iraq, which produces about 2.4m barrels of oil a day, holds reserves of about 115bn barrels, which are relatively easy and inexpensive to tap.

Only Saudi Arabia and Iran hold more oil, but both are off limits to international companies, which have had to move into increasingly remote or expensive areas such as the Arctic and Canada’s oil sands.

The breakthrough on Iraq’s contracts comes after months of negotiations between Iraqi officials and oil company executives.

Alex Munton, analyst at Wood Mackenzie, the industry consultant, said: “There has been an effort to try to go as far as they can so the oil companies’ concerns, raised by the absence of a hydrocarbons law, can be met through the contracts.”

He added: “Iraq may be at the bottom of any scale ranking investment climate – even for hardened oil companies – but it is at the top of any scale ranking the attractiveness of its oil reserves.”

Bids are due at the start of June and the winners are expected to be revealed by the end of that month. Iraq’s cabinet plans to ratify the agreements before the end of August, which would mean companies have to begin work in November or risk losing the contract.

“Iraq is not interested in signing contracts that will not be worked on,” Mr Ghadhban stressed, noting that the contracts committed companies to begin work three months after ratification.

Given Iraq’s recent record, delay and derailment remains a possibility. For Baghdad, however, getting the contracts signed has become more urgent since the collapse in oil prices – to $50 a barrel from $147 last summer – left a gaping hole in its budget.

For the companies, the drop in the oil price may have drastically reduced available cash but not so much as to force them to forgo the biggest investment opportunity since the fall of communism lifted the barriers to Russia and the Caspian.

GOT TO PAY OFF THE LOANS FOR ISSUING DIVIDENDS SOMEHOW. TALK ABOUT THE TRIUMPH OF HOPE OVER EXPERIENCE!

[tclambert]

29. Cue Richard "Dick" Cheney:

"You see, the war was worth it. We got our oil companies back into Iraq. If you'd put me back in power, we'd be in Iran, too. And just so know, we never tortured anyone. Besides, the torture worked, even on the ones we tortured to death. Especially on them! Worked better than that Viagra stuff, I'll tell you."

[Demeter]

20. Gold sales cost Europe’s central banks $40bn

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/433a92b4-3a67-11de-8a2d-00144feabdc0.html

Europe’s central banks are $40bn poorer than they might have been after they followed a British move taken 10 years ago on Thursday to shrink the Bank of England’s gold reserves, analysis by the Financial Times has shown.

London’s announcement on May 7 1999 that it would sell a large share of the Bank’s gold reserves in favour of assets offering a return, such as government bonds, was the high water mark of so-called “anti-gold” sentiment among European central banks.

Many of these banks, such as those in France, Spain, the Netherlands and Portugal, decided later in 1999 to follow Britain and sell off their reserves. At that time, gold was worth around $280 an ounce, less than a third of its current level of more than $900.

European banks sold about 3,800 tonnes of gold, reaping about $56bn, according to calculations from official sales data and bullion prices.

Taking into account the likely returns from the investments in bonds, the banks have gained another $12bn. But because today’s gold prices are far higher, they are about $40bn poorer than if they had kept their reserves.

The biggest loser is the Swiss National Bank which sold 1,550 tonnes over the decade and at today’s gold prices is $19bn poorer, followed by the Bank of England, which is $5bn poorer.

The UK Treasury on Wednesday defended its decision to sell gold as a way to diversify reserves and cut risk. “As a result of the programme, a one-off reduction in risk of approximately 30 per cent was achieved,” it said. The Swiss National Bank declined to comment other than to say that it did not plan to sell more gold.

However, central bankers are confident that over the long run their move out of gold and into bonds will pay off and reduce the volatility of their portfolios, people familiar with their thinking said. Analysts also argue that because some banks had more than 90 per cent of their assets in gold, some disposals were warranted.

The proportion of European reserves held as gold remains extremely large even after years of sales, at an average of about 60 per cent, compared with the world average of 10.5 per cent.

After 10 years of steady sales, Europe’s gold sales are set to slow to their lowest levels since 1999, while central banks outside Europe have already become net buyers of gold. The US, the world’s biggest holder of gold, decided not to follow Europe’s move. Germany and Italy are the only two big European central banks which did not follow the UK, mostly because of domestic disputes about what to do with the proceeds.

[Demeter]

21. Shareholders shoot down Provident bonuses

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/476e7526-3a7b-11de-8a2d-00144feabdc0.html

The spreading shareholder revolt over executive pay issues intensified as investors voted down plans by Provident Financial to pay a bonus and double-digit salary increases to senior executives.

More than 51 per cent of votes on the Bradford-based sub-prime lender’s remuneration report were cast against it at its annual meeting on Wednesday.
The size of the opposition signals the growing militancy of investors under pressure to be tougher on boards and pay.

PROVING THE ENGLISH ARE STILL SMARTER THAN AMERICANS.

[Joe Chi Minh]

27. Until such shareholder democracy takes hold in the UK, (beneficial) corporate governance will

remain a chimera. The Mail's city editor, Alex Brummer wrote a piece on the subject the other day.

[tclambert]

30. Regarding the cartoon:

That is the way to shrink a political party. The Republicans have for quite a while now been freely accusing any moderate of being a RINO. The insistence on ideological purity will eventually reduce a party to one member.

Prediction: Look for a number of minor parties splitting off from the Republican side.

Another prediction: Since the big money players don't really care about ideology, only ROI, look for money shifting from the Republican side to the Democratic side.

Yet another prediction: As the Democratic numbers grow, disagreements within the party will also grow. (That's a cheap prediction. They were bound to grow anyway as the shine wears off the new administration.)

[TheWatcher]

31. It Looks Like The Insanity is going to continue today.

Ozy was right, but in a bigger context I think.

There is no helping this COUNTRY, at this point.

I turn to Demeter at this junction, whose quote yesterday really crystallized simply, and eloquently why we are in this Nightmarish Twilight Zone:

"And that's where the conflict is growing: between those who want things fixed, and those who want good times."

Take a little Trip through GD and GD: Presidential, and you'll see how dead on Demeter is.

Maybe those of us who are sane who post in this thread should make up a snappy nickname for our group like "The White Rose Society."

Because that's exactly what it's beginning to feel like.

A Brave few trying to put out a blazing inferno of willful ignorance, and our only weapon is a squirt bottle. :(

Does the country really have to be completely destroyed for people to come to their senses?

Are we REALLY going to have to "Go There"?

At least it's Friday.

:beer:

I can't get to sleep
I think about the implications
Of diving in too deep
And possibly the complications

Especially at night
I worry over situations
I know I'll be alright

It's just overkill

Day after day it reappears
Night after night my heartbeat shows the fear

Ghosts appear and fade away.....

-Men At Work

[Pale Blue Dot]

39. Instead of The White Rose Society, how about "A Confederacy of Cassandras"?

That's how I feel most days.

[Tansy_Gold]

44. Ditto. Ditto.

I mean, how often do we greet new SMWers with "We've been sayin' that for months!" when they join us by posting their astonishment at how long it has taken various and sundry members of TPTB to recognize what we've been staring at all along.

Maybe we could start a think tank? Y'know, like the Heritage Foundation or Cato Institute? We could get funding from . . . . . someone. . . . .and pay ourselves outrageous salaries and bonuses?

:rofl:


Tansy Gold, the eternally frugal

[DemReadingDU]

53. Ditto, Ditto, Ditto

No one that I know, ever discusses the economy. Either they believe the happy spinning propaganda, or they are in denial that the economy can't/won't implode/crash. Nothing has stopped anyone, yet. They continue with their lives just as they normally do. Buy this, go there, spend, spend spend, or use credit cards.

[Demeter]

71. The Dealers Are Trying to Wind Things Up for the Summer

The only question I have, is what does "winding things up" mean this year?

[AnneD]

90. I have ventured out into GD....

but I don't stay long. Age and menopause has caused me not to suffer fools too well these days. When the highlight of your month is Happy Hour with you battle weary fellow Nurses-you are way past bull shit.

And speaking of which, we head out today for that golden hour. It is always a blessing to know a memorable moment when you experience. I always like to stop and take a mental picture for the scrap book I have in my brain. I have a whole bunch of special moment that I like to look back on.

When I look back on my life and what I did right-the planning and ideas that came from our happy hours will be one of them. Our legislative and organizing ideas that has come from these wonderful happy hours have made a difference in the lives of the children of Texas and the Nurses in this State. What the world needs is more pubs and less politicians.

[Dr.Phool]

91. I'll drink to that!

:toast:

More pubs, less politicians!

[Tansy_Gold]

102. More pubs, FEWER politicians

:evilgrin:


Tansy Gold, grammar fiend

[AnneD]

103. Some folks are writers..

some folks are editors, and some folks get to the bar earlier than others. :toast:

Anne DeLay schooled in the Hemingway method of writing.

[Dr.Phool]

104. What do you want? I started Happy Hour early.

:beer: :evilgrin: :beer:

[Tansy_Gold]

105. Soooooooooo. . . . . . . . . . .

does that make me the default designated driver and syntax cop?



Tansy Gold, who is just very grateful today that driving isn't a literal pain in the ass as it has been the past two weeks

[Demeter]

114. I've been Known to Police the Language

I LOVE Captain Hook in Peter Pan:

"By----carbonate of soda, NO!

Split me infinitives!"

The man had a way with creative swearing.

[UpInArms]

32. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 83.597 Change -0.214 (-0.28%)

US Dollar: US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) Could Shake Majors From Key Levels

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Dollar__US_Non_Farm_Payrolls_1241717854074.html

The US dollar has started May off on a weak note, trading just above key support versus many of the major currencies. However, US leading indicators for this Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFPs) suggest the results could be rather optimistic, providing potential for further dollar declines as traders will opt to buy up risky, higher-yielding currencies.

What is the Market Expecting for April Non-Farm Payrolls?



Arguments for an Improvement In Non-Farm Payrolls

1. Initial jobless claims have gradually backed off from the March 27 high of 674K down to 601K
2. ADP employment change fell less than expected by 491,000, the least since October 2008.
3. Challenger job cuts rose by 47 percent from a year ago, the smallest increase since September 2008
4. ISM services, manufacturing employment indices are still well below 50, but both have improved slightly
5. Conference Board, University of Michigan consumer confidence both surged in April

Based on both a Bloomberg News poll of economists and a variety of leading indicators, Friday’s release of US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) is likely to show job losses for the sixteenth straight month in April, but the rate of decline is anticipated to slow. At the time of writing, Bloomberg News was calling for NFPs to plunge by 600,000, but looking at the range of estimates, economists are anticipating that NFPs could fall anywhere between 360,000 and 750,000. Based on the improvements we’ve seen in leading indicators like initial jobless claims, consumer confidence, and the employment components of ISM non-manufacturing and ISM manufacturing, we expect that NFPs may drop somewhere in the range of 500,000 to 600,000.

That said, the steady accumulation of job losses does not bode well for economic growth going forward and indicates that the unemployment rate will continue to climb. In fact, for the April reading of the rate is projected to rise to 8.9 percent, the highest since September 1983, from 8.5 percent. At the same time, initial estimates of Q1 GDP for the US showed a 2.2 percent jump in personal consumption, after spending contracted for the previous two quarters, suggesting that aggressive discounting by retailers has been able to counter the impact of falling incomes, to a certain degree. In coming months, it will be important to get a sense if the rising optimism amongst consumers – which has been focused more on the economic outlook than current conditions – can remain robust even if growth doesn’t bounce back in the second half of the year.

...more...

Immediate Risk Appetite, Dollar, Stock Response To Fed Stress Test A Sign Of Optimism?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Immediate_Risk_Appetite__Dollar__Stock_1241747671552.html



• Immediate Risk Appetite, Dollar, Stock Response To Fed Stress Test A Sign Of Optimism?
• Bank of England And European Central Bank Struggling To Keep Pace
• What Happens When Speculation Turns To Fundamentals For Support?

Investors and traders have waded through the most densely-packed week for event risk in months; and the initial report is that optimism has held up well despite a relatively dour mix. However, until fundamentals catch up to (and support) sentiment, the recovery will be built on unstable ground. The recent tempered pace of what is now a two-month recovery in risk appetite may be a sign that investors are slowly coming to this realization – though recent ‘better than expected’ data and performance gauges have kept the various asset classes from faltering under the weight of a weak backdrop. With headlines covering smaller than expected quarterly losses for major companies and signs of a slower contraction in the global economy, side-lined market participants have been encouraged to put their capital back to work in traditional securities. The benchmark Dow has pushed to near-four month highs in a 30 percent advance from its 12 year lows. The same sentiment is reflected in the currency market. A quick recovery in carry interest has brought the Index up to its highest level since the short-term rebound following the market crash back in October. As far as support goes, a measured recovery in investment levels and yield appetite is warranted through a steady reduction in risk and very early signs of a recovery in rates of return. Volatility in the deeply liquid currency market has pulled back to levels not seen since September and the interest rate outlook for the Australian dollar has just recently ticked higher. On the other hand, market sentiment is still recovering from a near panic state and returns on every other asset are contacting. So, is sentiment overshooting the actual recovery?

Whether the current recovery in optimism and investment levels continues into the medium term will become more and more a factor of fundamentals. A natural boost in the markets is natural as participants reinvest and early speculators trying to jump back in the market to make up for their crushing losses through 2008. However, such sentiment can prevail for only so long before investors are discouraged by the lack of a return over benchmarks and risk-free instruments – or are driven away by another unforeseen shock to the financial system. For this week, another leg of the recovery has been won through the relief provided by the results of the Federal Reserve’s Stress Test. Despite the government’s requirement for 10 of the United States’ largest banks to raise another $74.6 billion dollars and forecasts that 19 of its institutions could see a combined $600 billion in additional losses through 2010; investors were calmed by the fact that things weren’t worse. However, this data shows a fundamental issue. Further losses are inevitable. More importantly, global growth is fully expected to contract going forward. At the most fundamental level of finance, returns are borne from economic expansion and the lending and investing it generates. With both the BoE and ECB reporting their efforts to shore up the markets this past week and government funds still holding things together, it is clear that a recovery can’t yet support itself.

...more...

[tclambert]

35. Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in April (-539,000)

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: APRIL 2009


Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in April (-539,000), and
the unemployment rate rose from 8.5 to 8.9 percent, the Bureau of Labor Sta-
tistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Since the recession
began in December 2007, 5.7 million jobs have been lost. In April, job los-
ses were large and widespread across nearly all major private-sector indus-
tries. Overall, private-sector employment fell by 611,000.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons increased by 563,000 to 13.7 million in
April, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.9 percent. Over the past 12 months,
the number of unemployed persons has risen by 6.0 million, and the unemployment
rate has grown by 3.9 percentage points.
____________________________________________

So, 539,000 or maybe 563,000 or maybe 611,000 people lost jobs. Let the revels begin.

[DemReadingDU]

40. video - cutting $100 Million from budget

How much is the $100 million dollars in budget cuts compared to the federal budget as a whole? This video imagines the budget as $100 in pennies to provide the answer.
appx 1.5 minutes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWt8hTayupE

[Pale Blue Dot]

41. Insiders selling at a FURIOUS PACE

Last week there was a report that corporate insiders were selling at a faster rate that at any time since October, 2007 -- right near the top of the market.

Well, the market's only raged higher since then and insider selling is only getting more intense.

The Pragmatic Capitalist here has aggregated recent insider transactions. As you can see from his data collected (unfortunately the tables won't fit here, do click over), insider sales dwarf insider buys both in frequency and in volume. Insiders are selling their stocks in multi-million dollar blocks, while the few buys are much smaller.

If nothing else, it means that a lot of executives probably saw the abyss (a violent drop from the ranks of the wealthy to poor) and want to de-risk to ensure that no matter what happens to their stock, they've taken some skin out of the game.

http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/2009/05/insiders-selling-at-furious-pace.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

42. MORE ON INSIDER SELLING

I recently wrote about reports that insider selling was at record highs and buying was practically non-existent. The selling has become even more alarming in the last week and the buying has slowed to an absolute trickle. Below you’ll find the list of latest insider buys and sells. The sells are staggering with the amounts ranging from $3MM to $63MM (and I was only able to copy one page). The buys, on the other hand, are meager and range from $100K to $635K (the $800K purchase is a few months old and shouldn’t be in the data). You’ll also notice that the screen came up with just 18 total purchases vs 170 total sales (the lowest of sell screen data were sales of over $400K which is not shown here due to the large size of the results).

Insiders are overwhelmingly bearish on this market and have become even more so in recent weeks. I can’t remember the last time the ratio of selling:buying was so lopsided….

http://pragcap.com/more-on-insider-selling

Screen shots are at the links.

This is absolutely terrifying. How much longer do we have?

[DemReadingDU]

47. What do the insiders know?

Not sure why they are selling now. I would think the market will really start tanking sometime this summer/fall when it becomes obvious to everyone the number of people unemployed from GM and Chrysler shutdowns.

[Tansy_Gold]

52. I think you just answered your own question

They know -- as we've known for some time -- that the continued downtrend in the REAL economy -- jobs that produce both consumer goods and the wages for people to buy them with -- will eventually trigger a nosedive in the paper economy. There's been a concerted effort to keep stock prices inflated long enough for the fat cats to exercise their options, buy low, and then sell if not high at least higher than the buy point.

All of this has been done with taxpayer money. Not only have our dollars been used to prop up the stock market, but now the looters (to conveniently steal one of Rand's favorite terms for the bad guys) are stealing again by dumping their worthless stocks for real cash.

Our cash.



TG

[DemReadingDU]

55. Guess I did

I was thinking that insiders would wait a month or 2, before selling, for the market to go a bit higher. When the unemployment numbers start coming in for the laid off auto jobs, then the market would tank. But what do I know, I'm not an insider.

:eyes:

[Pale Blue Dot]

86. Don't forget that it's not just auto jobs

Tens, or maybe even hundreds, of thousands of education jobs are going to be eliminated by the end of June. School districts all over the country have already announced the cuts, which won't go into effect until school is done for the year.

This could be a long, hot summer.

[DemReadingDU]

96. many school levies in our area are not passing

Teachers are getting cut, families must pay big bucks for their kids to play sports, school buses being eliminated (except for the very rural).

Also state/city budgets can't be met either, because not enough money is being collected from taxes, so even more people and/or services are going to be cut.

long hot summer, into an even longer colder winter


When people aren't getting the services they are used to receiving, I suppose they will start waking up (and getting angry)

[tclambert]

109. I think it was a shutout here in SE Michigan.

No millages passed. School by candlelight next year.

[Demeter]

73. Maybe a Clue There As To What "Getting Ready for Summer" Means

convert all paper to cash or real goods.Liquidate.

[DemReadingDU]

84. Could be

I've got some real goods, but spouse is eating them all up. I need to start stocking in triplicate.

:P

[Robbien]

56. Subprime Lending Is Back With a Vengeance

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water... Subprime lending has come roaring back.

But this time, reckless financial innovation isn’t being hatched on Wall Street. Instead, state governments are angling to “monetize” first-time homebuyer tax credits so borrowers can purchase homes with little or no money down.

If this sounds eerily similar to the type of lending practices that got us into this mess, well, it should.

The federal government, as part of the recently passed economic stimulus package, will refund first-time homebuyers up to $8,000 if they meet certain eligibility requirements. The program is frequently cited as one of the myriad reasons a bottom in the housing market is imminent.

Critics, however, argue that rebates don't end up in a buyer’s pockets until his or her 2009 tax returns are filed - even though rebates are credits, not just deductions.

In an effort to boost home buying -- even for marginally qualified borrowers -- a number of states are finding creative ways to advance the tax credit to buyers on the day they get their new keys, rather than having to wait for next year's refund check. This allows buyers to pay for things like closing costs, mortgage points - or even the down payment.

States are employing schemes whereby they offer prospective buyers low or no-interest loans for the amount of the tax credit, due upon of receipt of their money from Uncle Sam. If the borrower doesn’t make good, the loan becomes a junior lien on the property, with an interest rate that is far from usurious - usually just a bit over the prime lending rate.

Missouri was the first state to launch such a program, and has since been joined by Delaware, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and others. States are even lobbying the IRS to deposit the refunds directly to the states, rather than to the home buyers, in order to circumvent non-payment. The IRS, for its part, “is reviewing” this idea.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Credit-fre-fnm-PHM-len-subprime/index/a/22591/p/1


Re-pumping the bubble.

[TheMachineWins]

97. It's double plus good, less worse by the day.

A few quotes from today's propaganda machine, aka "The Press":

Nothing is as bad as expected, there is light at the end of the tunnel, everyone passed the stress test, the pace of layoffs slowed, it's not nearly as deep as thought, the worst of the downturn has past, the gears of our economic engine do seem to be slowly turning once again, there are glimmers of hope. We are moving in the right direction, glimmers of hope have emerged that the recession may be losing its grip on the country, big banks don't need as much capital as some had feared, employers cut 539,000 jobs last month -- the fewest in six months, "The news is never all good when you've hit bottom," said Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist at Edward Jones. "But that doesn't change our view that the rate of decline is slowing.", the economy should bottom out later this year and begin expanding again, the battered labor market has been showing signs of moderation, "Every economic report, every earnings release is going to continue to paint a picture of an economy that is on the mend and that is going to form the foundation for this rally, which I think is sustainable, there is still skepticism and pessimism and uncertainty, but the market will climb that wall of worry.

[alterfurz]

106. Less bad is the new good!

It's the same media spiel as with Iraq.

[DemReadingDU]

108. Welcome to SMW

:hi:

[tclambert]

111. And welcome to SMW!

And less hideous is the new beautiful! Oh, wait, maybe I fell asleep with E! on.

[DemReadingDU]

107. that light at the end of the tunnel????

it is a train

:scared:

[tclambert]

110. Welcome to SMW! You forgot

we've also successfully colonized Mars. Oh, wait, maybe I fell asleep with the SciFi channel on.

[Demeter]

115. Guess What I Learned from NPR This Afternoon!

The economy isn't totally insolvent, not as bad as everybody thought.

Little Timmy took the gamble that he could prop up the banks and they'd get over their faintness, and he won.

And Obama is sending us all to school, so we can learn to be corporate executives and push paper, because paper is our most important Product!
We're going to get wealthy selling insurance and sub-prime loans to each other. We won't make any REAL goods, because Manufacturing is so lower class.

On NPR. How low the mighty have fallen. Harold Meyerson should be ashamed of himself.

Oh, one last Nugget: we had to keep the Big B Banks alive, or our WHOLE ECONOMY would have collapsed!

I may have to drink to sleep tonight.

[Hugin]

117. "...because Manufacturing is so lower class."

I'm taking a break from stripping the layers of paint off of an old vanity... And what do I read?