(NDP Leader Jack) Layton leading Mills in Toronto riding, poll says

[Screaming Lord Byron]

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040302/NATS02-4/TPNational/Canada

A new poll suggests NDP Leader Jack Layton has a significant lead over incumbent Liberal MP Dennis Mills in the federal riding of Toronto-Danforth.

The survey, taken Feb. 24-26, was paid for by the NDP with an eye to an expected spring election.

The poll by Strategic Communications suggests Mr. Layton is favoured by 46.3 per cent of respondents and Mr. Mills by 28.8 per cent. Another 14.3 per cent were undecided.

The sample size is 423, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

[La_Serpiente]

1. Could Layton become the Prime Minister?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

2. In four years, maybe. Now? Not likely.

But Canadians have a long tradition of destroying governing parties at elections, so I don't want to make any assumptions about anything.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

3. PEI NDP Leader reckons we have a good shot in Quebec

http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/MainPage.aspx?PageType=FullStory&PartialStory=No&StoryID=10816

Provincial NDP Leader Gary Robichaud returned from a meeting of the party’s federal council in Toronto on the weekend with a renewed spirit of optimism about the party’s chances in the next federal election.
Robichaud, who was accompanied by former provincial NDP leader Dr. Herb Dickieson, said there was a real can-do spirit at the Toronto meetings.

“Everybody was optimistic at those meetings,” Robichaud said Sunday night.

“In terms of election planning we will be trying to make gains in every province, including here in P.E.I. We feel very good about our chances, even in Quebec where it appears we have a very real shot at several seats.”

Robichaud said he and others attending the meetings are buoyed by the success party leader Jack Layton has achieved in raising both the party’s profile and his own profile as leader, despite the fact he doesn’t have a seat yet.

-I agree about PEI, we may take Charlottetown, but Quebec? Who knows.

[Minstrel Boy]

4. And he won't be alone, either!

His wife, city councillor Olivia Chow, is almost certain to take Trinity Spadina, and former councillor and exec director of Greenpeace Peter Tabuns looks good in Beaches-East York.

Those are the three "traditional" Toronto ridings for the NDP, but there could be more gains:

Parkdale-High Park. Municipally was represented for years by now-mayor, NDPer David Miller. Strong candidate in former CAW exec Peggy Nash.

Etobicoke Lakeshore. I think Irene Jones, 15-year city councillor, is expected to run. The National Post reported in early January that Liberal internal polling forecast losing this seat to the NDP. And that was before the scandal broke.

Davenport's more of a longshot, but it could be a pickup, since Caccia's retiring.

A lot going in the NDP's favour in Toronto. Having recently elected a popular NDP mayor doesn't hurt. And the Liberal MPs in Toronto are largely do-nothing backbenchers with little to show for their time in office.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

5. Trinity-Spadina is going our way. Here's some figures.

2000 Result - Trinity-Spadina
Lib - 47.56, NDP 37.99

But, remember, due to the redistribution, the seats will be rearranged, with I think, the loss of one seat in the City of Toronto.