STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday July 15

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday July 15, 2009



Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2

Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 3

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 14, 2009



Dow... 8,359.49 +27.81 (+0.33%)

Nasdaq... 1,799.73 +6.52 (+0.36%)

S&P 500... 905.84 +4.79 (+0.53%)

Gold future... 922.80 +0.30 (+0.03%)

10-Yr Bond... 3.47 +0.12 (+3.52%)

30-Year Bond 4.38 +0.15 (+3.45%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS

NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Stock Market Watch has been brought to you by Linux.

A friend spent a generous amount of time with me yesterday and installed Linux on the ten year-old Dell XPS T450. We totally blew out Windows XP. The installation took about an hour. He spent an hour on the tutorial. Linux takes about a third of the space of Windows. For those who are familiar with the technical details of Windows - this comes as no surprise. Windows is a wholly bloated piece of software with an unstable architecture design. What used to require nearly 9gB for Windows now requires 2.2gB with Linux.

Here's the odd thing: the Mac arrived while we were updating the Ubuntu apps. When we finished - I unpacked and connected the Mac. It was DOA. The box was crushed somewhere along the shipping route. The seller is a tremendous help. He tried troubleshooting with me. Alas, there is something seriously wrong with the Mac. UPS will need to make good on what appears to be damage that resulted from their shipping network. I'm glad that I bought the $3.50 insurance policy.

Now... on to the thread's daily bidness.

[Demeter]

8. What a Horror Show!

Can you imagine life without computers? How about life without computer failures?

[ozymandius]

10. My Windows-powered Dell was a horror show.

Linux rarely accesses the hard drive. I have heard the drive 'click' just a handful of times this morning- mostly while reconstituting bookmarks from the backup disc. This Linux operating system really has breathed new life into this Dell fossil.

I cannot imagine life without computer failures. To me - it's like the hassle of cleaning up the kitchen after dinner.

The Mac was bashed somewhere along its route. Until that issue is fixed, Linux will offer a reasonable rehearsal for the Mac system since they are based on the same architectural principles.

[Demeter]

17. I Apologize for Not Helping Out

Real Life is exploding around me like 4th of July fireworks. It's as much as I can do to keep sane (and I'm really failing at that, if the truth were told). By the end of August, the fireworks should have settled down.

What I want to know is why does the shit hit the fan after the winter, when it's time to come alive and do things? I am prevented from even trying to clean up the mess from last summer's explosions, which I did work on over the winter, but there's a limit to how much I could do with the weather being so severe and the economy tanking so rapidly. This is getting really old, really fast.

I think that there were only bad fairies at my cradle.

[ozymandius]

19. My issues were small-fry compared to the doozies you've had to contend with.

Personally, I like Winter. It is a time to regroup and contemplate. The cold focuses the mind and an extra layer of clothing can feel like armour or, at least, like insulation against outrageous fortunes' slings and arrows.

There is one member on the DU message boards with a really solid sig line. It says: 'If you're going through hell, keep going."

[Demeter]

21. Words to Live By!

Thanks!

[Tansy_Gold]

24. Demeter, I hear you

Mine aren't catastrophes, just incessant nuisances. And all compounded by the weather. For us, the tough time of the year is summer, and we're getting it in spades. We may get a break today and only hit 110. With clouds.


Tansy Gold, desert rat who does NOT like watering plants

[Warpy]

38. I'm getting there

because I'm sick of having this stupid machine take half an hour to boot up between bloatware updates and Symantec's little problems.

I have a pristine XP machine as backup, but this one will eventually be a Linux box.

Which flavor of Linux are you using?

[ozymandius]

59. Ubuntu 9.04

I really am amazed at what this OS can do.

[Warpy]

68. Thankee

I've been looking into Debian and Linux Mint as non geek friendly flavors. I've tried others and chucked them within a couple of days as unworkable.

[Hugin]

41. w00t!

:bounce:

:bounce:

:thumbsup:

:D

(Sorry to hear about your Mac... Kind of an unusual occurrence. :/ )

[Wednesdays]

45. Heh, insurance

Don't you find it strange that you have to pay for their screw-up?

[ozymandius]

60. Strange? Yes. Unusual? No.

Like insurance on almost anything - it was in case they screwed up. That has been a regular occurrence with UPS for about two years now. Something happening as expected has been the exception. I felt the insurance was worth the cost since it was, of all outfits, UPS that was tasked with moving a Mac across the continent.

[ozymandius]

2. Market Observation

Organized Inflation: A Methodical Dollar Decline
by Frank Barbera

In today’s turbulent global economy, perhaps the key question for most investors is whether or not the current global contraction will yield to a nascent recovery, or could things continue to get worse. As it happens, the weight of the evidence coming from a wide variety of economic data continues to suggest that the contraction, while losing some momentum on the downside, is still very deeply entrenched. In a recent survey, 7 in 10 Americans responded strongly to a query suggesting that they were fearful of losing their jobs. If American consumers remain nervous about the potential stability of their future income, American’s will continue to attempt to de-lever their personal balance sheets by saving money instead of spending.

So far, their has been virtually no improvement in retail sales, despite an uptick in confidence from the depths of the crisis low. On a global basis, the European continent is suffering amid chronic high unemployment, while in Asia the big question revolves around the longevity of the current inventory replacement cycle. As the global manufacturing center, inventory replacement can drive the Asian economic engine for a quarter or two, but more sustained growth will need to come from concentrated government spending as exports may revert to a sluggish posture later this year. Perhaps one of the key themes which is fairly clear is that the global monetary system is in strong need of re-alignment. Profligate central banking practices virtually guarantee a new cycle of competitive currency devaluations in the years ahead in what will most likely be a controlled decline. At the moment, it is in virtually no one’s interest, including China, to see the US Dollar collapse in a hail of bullets. The resulting currency market turmoil would drive rates up around the world, and would further cripple any prospect of even marginal growth. In fact, it is not an exaggeration to suggest that a major uncontrolled currency crisis at this juncture could easily send the world in a second Great Depression, which would fuel protectionist fires in virtually every corner of the globe.

.....

For students new to the markets it is worth understanding a typical picture that often precedes a major panic. Unlike the popular conception that ‘panics’ tend to hit out ‘left field,’ a fair amount of time they act as an exclamation point of sorts to a market trend that had been in force for some time, often years. While we are not saying that there are not occasions when crisis can erupt from ‘thin air,’ what we are saying is that a lot of the time, real panics tend to come from trends that have already been in motion for some time. The classic picture of this outcome is the curvilinear decline where a market down trend slowly gains increasing downside momentum over a long period of time. Eventually, the building downside momentum snowballs into a full-blown crisis, and prices fall precipitously in a short period of time.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

11. One Wouldn't Think this Question Even Needed to be Raised

There is no mechanism for improvement inherent in the system, because it crashed when all the regulation was removed. No regulation has been returned to the system, ergo, it's gonna get worse, and worse, until Change We Can Believe In and Count On actually occurs.

Why Obama is totally tone deaf, blind and otherwise deluded on this point, after 6 months of trying it the GSG (Goldman Sachs Gang) way, is a real puzzlement.

But then, Obama is getting a lot of positive feedback from his jaunting about the world and rubbing elbows with royalty and heads of state. He doesn't want to do the hard work: fixing the economy.

Obama came out to lecture Michigan about how everybody should go to community college. To become dental assistants? Or electricians? How many of these does a dying economy need? Obama parrots the GSG line: those manufacturing jobs, especially autos, are not coming back. Well I have news for the President: if we don't get the auto industry and other manufacturing efforts back in this country, there won't be a country. Why the hell else would every other nation keep their auto and other manufacturing industry alive and subsidized and protected by trade barriers, except for the fact that manufacturing is the backbone of a nation's wealth?

And let's consider agriculture, too. We were the world's breadbasket, and then Monsanto poisoned the market with Frankenfood and proprietary seed. Now we are the toxic waste producers, on a level approaching China, in agriculture.

Without solid, sane and functional Agriculture and Manufacturing Bases, a country is merely a beggar in the global economy, no better than most of Africa or the other 3rd world countries torn by war and disease and lack of infrastructure and investment in the things that matter--public health, safety and welfare.

It's getting really worrisome that there's no sign that Obama is getting the feedback.

Rahm is getting the feedback on healthcare--if he still philosophically abhores the public payment thereof (wonder how much he's in hock to the Big Hospitals and Big Pharma?)

Holder is getting the feedback on prosecuting war crimes and upholding the Constitution (would that Pelosi was!).

But Obama is in thrall to the Shadow Bankers, who have his ear and probably hold hostage his very life.

[ozymandius]

16. These conditions are ignored at Obama's peril.

One thing Reagan gave political campaigns is the question: "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?"

That has always been a cudgel one candidate found quite useful to use against another to place a glaring spotlight on matters of economic policy. I am equally perplexed, Demeter, in that Obama appears to basking in the warm, confident glow of his world tour despite the nerve-crunching crises at home. But then, every new President does this.

My guess is that President Obama can only personally manage as much as he is competent to do so. The unfortunate aspect of the presidency, at this time, is that Obama is a captive audience for a tight bunch of people who offer really bad advice. Not bad advice for them, the selfish interests of the Goldman Sachs gang are, understandably, well represented. We, the governed, do not have fair representation at the table. I keep thinking about how Paul Volcker and Elizabeth Warren have been alienated from the "in-crowd". And that is perilous for this new administration.

The Banksters have shown they are willing to blow up their own companies for personal gain. Why not a presidency? That aspect of Obama's circle of advisors worries me endlessly for what their contributions mean for a President who came into office with such great promise - and what it means for the rest of us.

[Tansy_Gold]

25. That is why -- I think and I fear -- only a catastrophe will

wake this country up.

I don't know what form it will take, or what form it NEEDS to take, but the sheep will not become lions until they are jolted from their peaceful grazing. Perhaps they are like koalas, drunk on their eucalyptus.



TG

[DemReadingDU]

30. That's my family

Totally clueless college educated, all have professional financial planners. They truly believe recovery is just around the corner, stock market always comes back, are buying cars, taking exotic vacations. It'll be some form of castastrophe before the majority wake up.

[Po_d Mainiac]

43. One needs only to look at the HOME page to

see why the shitter awaits US. The topics that get the most attention are not those that the very future of the Nation depend on. Are they important, no doubt. But they are diverting peoples focus from the certainty that continued job losses and currency dilution will bestow upon all but the most ruthless financial institutions.

I do get the impression that more people are starting to actually "get it," but on the same token, the vast majority are willing to accept the crap from the MSM about market bottoms, green shoots, signs of recovery, etc.

I actually was able to listen to Glenn "the douche bag" Beck yesterday without wanting to punch the radio out of the dash. He did a semi-decent job of airing Matt Taibbi's work, instead of blaming the world's problems on "free choice" advocates or the "tin hats" that believe in the truth about climate change.

For the rest of the day, I'm going to take advantage of a rare rainless afternoon/evening and go cast some flies on the river.

ps......Here's are local story about a venture some close friends are involved with. IMHO and good way to start bring back some of our small town Main Streets. http://morningsentinel.mainetoday.com/news/local/6605972.html

[Tansy_Gold]

46. it's bread and circuses. . . . .

without the bread.

[Tansy_Gold]

47. Greenfield Mills IN

http://www.newrinkelflour.com/

I used to purchase their products when we lived in nearby Angola, IN

[TheWatcher]

66. There's a Flip Side to that equation, my dear Tansy.

One that keeps me up at night.

What if said catalyzing event occurred and The Sheep DID NOT awake from their slumber, but simply EMBRACED The Criminals and whatever Solutions they offered when they rode in on their White Horses.

"Save Us. We just want to get back to watching Reality TV and Sports and not have to deal with this hard stuff. We'll go along with whatever, just let us have or false paradigm back."

I am afraid at this point I MAY be too cynical to have that kind of faith in the American People that an extreme Crisis would galvanize them.

What it might do is just make them that much more eager for slavery and bondage.

:(

I know, I know, I need to stop thinking so positively.

What am I, Tony Robbins? :)



"Now, I'll hypnotize you with my teeth and convince you to buy tapes to feel better about yourself."

[Tansy_Gold]

80. Thre is indeed.

I'm thinking, though, that a true crisis would be so widespread and so far beyond the powers of the The Powers That Be to fix that something else would have to take over.

I'm surprised though, reading through the rest of this thread this evening, that there haven't been more whistleblowers, especially folks like Bair and Volcker. I mean, c'mon, they gotta know this shit can't hold up much longer. Don't they? Or are they in on it too, like the pod people from Invasion of the Body Snatchers?


Tansy Gold, not a movie buff

[TheWatcher]

82. Sadly, one of them. Volcker, I Beleive, is deifnitley in on it.

TheWatcher, enough of a Movie Buff to cover the whole Board. :)

[Demeter]

33. Does It Make Sense To Give The Economy To Banksters Who Nearly Died for Their Sins?

That's exactly what happened. People who would deservedly be on the streets selling pencils (and riding the subways) were "rescued" by the biggest boondoggle in the world, and as a bonus, given the rest of the world economy to destroy.

So we are all sacrificed on the altar of their incompetence. Competent thieves wouldn't kill the goose that's laying their golden eggs.

[Hugin]

44. "Why not a presidency?"

"The Banksters have shown they are willing to blow up their own companies for personal gain."

Exactly... or why not a whole country? The biggest bang of them all! It's not like they see themselves as Citizens here, anyway. They see themselves as Globalists. Immune from the domestic laws and regulations the rest of us must observe to reside here.

[Tansy_Gold]

81. Exactly. Scary, ain't it.

[Dr.Phool]

27. But, didn't you hear? He reads 10 e-mails a day from us.

But, I think Rahm screens them.

He only gets the ones that say "Best President Ever", and "You Rock Barack"!"

There's a reason he was 7th on my list of Dem candidates. He might be 6th now, just ahead of Dodd and Clinton.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises above $60 as traders eye US inventories

VIENNA – Oil prices rose above $60 a barrel Wednesday as investors looked to a weekly inventory report for clues on U.S. gasoline demand.

Benchmark crude for August delivery was up 88 cents to $60.40 a barrel by noon European electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Tuesday, the contract fell 17 cents to settle at $59.52.

Crude has loitered near $60 a barrel for the last few days as investors try to gauge the strength of the global economy. Oil shot to an eight-month intraday high of $73.38 a barrel on June 30, more than double the price in March.

....

Traders will be eyeing a weekly inventory report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Analysts expect the EIA's gasoline inventory numbers to rise 750,000 barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline and heating oil for August delivery rose by more than 2 cents to $1.67 andf $1.53 a gallon. Natural gas for August delivery increased by 4 cents to $3.47 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Today's Reports

08:30 Core CPI Jun
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.1%

08:30 CPI Jun
Briefing.com 0.6%
Consensus 0.6%
Prior 0.1%

08:30 Empire Manufacturing Jul
Briefing.com -3.0
Consensus -5.00
Prior -9.41

09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun
Briefing.com 67.9%
Consensus 67.9%
Prior 68.3%

09:15 Industrial Production Jun
Briefing.com -0.6%
Consensus -0.6%
Prior -1.1%

10:30 Crude Inventories 07/10
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -2.90M

14:00 Minutes of FOMC Meeting June 24

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

29. 8:30 reports: Yay! We have great horrible numbers!

U.S. July Empire State index -0.6 vs. -9.4 June
8:30am Today

US June CPI rises 0.7%, as expected
8:30am Today

US June core CPI rises 0.2% vs 0.1% expected
8:30am Today

US CPI down 1.4% over past year
8:30am Today

US core CPI up 1.7% over past year
8:30am Today

US June food prices no change
8:30am Today

US June energy prices up 7.4%
8:30am Today

US June real weekly earnings fall 1.2%
8:30am Today

[ozymandius]

5. Stock futures rise on earnings reports

....

Intel's upbeat report followed strong earnings from Goldman Sachs.

Ahead of the opening bell, Dow Jones industrial average futures are up 84, or 1 percent, at 8,388. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures are up 11.30, or 1.3 percent, at 912.70, while Nasdaq 100 index futures are up 26.75, or 1.9 percent, at 1,473.50.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090715/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/us_wall_street_43

[ozymandius]

6. House bill would make health care a right

WASHINGTON – House Democratic leaders, pledging to meet the president's goal of health care legislation before their August break, are offering a $1.5 trillion plan that for the first time would make health care a right and a responsibility for all Americans. Left to pick up most of the tab were medical providers, employers and the wealthy.

"We cannot allow this issue to be delayed. We cannot put it off again," Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., the chairman of the House Energy and Commerce committee, said Tuesday. "We, quite frankly, cannot go home for a recess unless the House and the Senate both pass bills to reform and restructure our health care system."

In the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid said he wanted floor debate to begin a week from Monday. With the Senate Finance Committee still struggling to reach consensus, that timetable could slip. Even so, it underscored a renewed sense of urgency.

.....

The legislation calls for a 5.4 percent tax increase on individuals making more than $1 million a year, with a gradual tax beginning at $280,000 for individuals. Employers who don't provide coverage would be hit with a penalty equal to 8 percent of workers' wages, with an exemption for small businesses. Individuals who decline an offer of affordable coverage would pay 2.5 percent of their incomes as a penalty, up to the average cost of a health insurance plan.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_health_care_overhaul

[Demeter]

13. They Better Be REALLY Good Bills, Senator Waxman

because anything half-assed will destroy the nation and the efforts to rebuild it. There are no second chances left for this country. We are on our last chance here, for at least a generation and probably two, and you don't want to see what kind of violence it would take to reverse that course if it isn't fixed now, within the next 5 years.

[ozymandius]

7. Lehman’s U.K. Administrator Seeks Return of Assets

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may return as soon as next year some of the $11 billion of hedge- fund assets still frozen when the New York-based securities firm collapsed in the largest bankruptcy on record.

PricewaterhouseCoopers, Lehman Brothers International Europe’s administrator, will ask a court at 11:30 a.m. in London today to block any creditor claims for assets after this year. That would allow PwC to return money Lehman had held in trust for fund managers as soon as the first quarter of 2010, the accounting firm said in a statement.

....

The proposal is “the best hope that many people have got of getting their trust assets back in the short term,” said Darren Fox, a lawyer at London-based law firm Simmons & Simmons who represents some Lehman creditors. “If this doesn’t go through it could, according to the administrators, take a decade or more to get assets back out to people.”

....

Assuming the court approves the plan, creditors will vote on whether collateral that had been pledged to Lehman and then lent out by the bank -- a process called rehypothecation -- can be “netted,” or counted toward repayment of loans, according to Lehman prime-brokerage clients. If netting is approved, funds whose loans are considered covered by rehypothecated assets will get back any other money now frozen at Lehman.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asgw2t_L87sg

[Demeter]

14. There wouldn't be anything LEFT Ater a Decade!

What a FUBAR.

[ozymandius]

9. Credit Swaps Investigated by U.S. Justice Department

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Justice Department is investigating the market for credit-default swaps, according to Markit Group Ltd., the data provider majority-owned by Wall Street’s largest banks.

“Markit has been informed of an investigation by the Department of Justice into the credit-derivatives and related markets,” spokeswoman Teresa Chick said yesterday in an e- mailed statement in response to questions from Bloomberg News. She declined to comment on the nature of the investigation. “We will work with the Department to provide any information requested of us.”

The antitrust division sent civil investigative notices this month to banks that own London-based Markit to determine if they have unfair access to price information, according to three people familiar with the matter. U.S. lawmakers plan to regulate the $592 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market, which includes credit-default swaps blamed for helping worsen the biggest financial calamity since the Great Depression.

....

Credit-default swaps -- contracts that protect against or speculate on corporate defaults by paying the buyer the face value of a bond or loan if a company fails to meet its debt agreements -- ballooned almost 100-fold within seven years to represent about $62 trillion by the end of 2007, according to estimates from the New York-based International Swaps & Derivatives Association.

Unregulated trading of the contracts made it difficult for the U.S. to assess how connected banks had become following the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September. Credit markets froze when the New York-based firm, once the fourth- largest U.S. investment bank, collapsed in the world’s biggest bankruptcy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ahcdJoyFIDsk

[Demeter]

15. Well, It's a Start

Pulling on one little thread could unravel the whole nasty sweater if they aren't careful. :evilgrin:

[Po_d Mainiac]

31. Besides, GS has already cashed in their CDS's

And lost 2 major competitors almost simultaneously.

[Demeter]

34. They Probably Did Some More, Though

on the theory that there's more where that came from.

[ozymandius]

12. Yes, Unemployment Is Worse Than Reported (Ritholtz)

One of our longstanding complaints has been that the traditionally reported measure of Unemployment, U3, dramatically under-reports unemployment in America. It is far too narrow and ignores too many people that want to work full time, but cannot.

We have detailed this over the years, and last summer, modestly proposed the media begin reporting U6, the broadest measure of joblessness. (see Previously, below)

So you can imagine our pleasure when yet another MSM gets hip to this. In the rpesent instance, it is the New York Times, Part-Time Workers Mask Unemployment Woes:

In California and a handful of other states, one out of every five people who would like to be working full time is not now doing so.

It is a startling sign of the pain that the Great Recession is inflicting, and it is largely missed by the official, oft-repeated statistics on unemployment. The national unemployment rate has risen to 9.5 percent, the highest level in more than a quarter-century. Yet it still excludes all those who have given up looking for a job and those part-time workers who want to be working full time.

Include them — as the Labor Department does when calculating its broadest measure of the job market — and the rate reached 23.5 percent in Oregon this spring, according to a New York Times analysis of state-by-state data. It was 21.5 percent in both Michigan and Rhode Island and 20.3 percent in California. In Tennessee, Nevada and several other states that have relied heavily on manufacturing or housing, the rate was just under 20 percent this spring and may have since surpassed it.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/yes-unemployment-is-worse-than-reported/

[Shireling]

69. Same unemployment rate as the Great Depression,

which, according to an article on Yahoo News (sorry, don't have it), included the underemployed when figuring the unemployment rate during that time. HMMMM...

[ozymandius]

18. Bair and Bernanke Back Size Disincentives For Banks

From Naked Capitalism

In an about-face, the Administration seems to be getting serous about trying to Do Something about the too-big-to-fail syndrome.

Or is it? The proposal comes from Shiela Bair, and does not have the support of the Treasury Department. Curiously, Bloomberg reports that Bernanke has endorsed the Bair plan, which unusually puts him in opposition with Geithner.

Is this move to bolster the Fed's bona fides as a systemic risk regulator? Probably not, since Bloomberg gives the impression that Bernanke is on board with Bair's proposal, when in fact the evidence is thin indeed. If you read the Bloomberg piece, its current headline, "Bair, Bernanke Push to Toughen Plan to Curb Biggest U.S. Banks " suggest that Bernanke and Bair are allied on this measure, while Bernanke has simply said restricting size is a "legitimate option."

....

While this is better than nothing, Glass Steagall v. 2,0 would have a large impact on Citi, JP Morgan, and Bank of America. I'm not opposed to that, but this move has the effect of singling them out without doing anything to Morgan Stanley or the great (from a reregulation standpoint) untouchable. Goldman.

It would presumably lead these firms to separate their traditional banking businesses from their investment banking operations. That is not a bad move, but the benefits are probably overstated. The safety net has clearly been extended to what were investment banks. "No more Lehmans" is now official policy. So reducing complexity is a step in the right direction, but we still have the boys with the big trading operations with a de facto government guarantee, no charge for it (like FDIC insurance) and insufficient supervision given the guarantee.

I'm also leery of piecemeal approaches, It's easier for the industry to mobilize against initiatives launched separately, and single measures create the impression that the problem is being tackled, when any one measure will have limited effect.

More at link...

[Demeter]

23. The Bloom is Off Bernanke's Rose

and Geithner's been revealed as the skunk cabbage he really is.

So Bernanke needs allies who can be useful, make him look good. Sheila Bair is a rising star, as is Elizabeth Warren. Competent women to clean up teh mess the boys made.

This might be the first sign of Geithner's departure--I'm guessing and hoping. With any luck, Bernanke will still not be reappointed, and we'll get a new team. But just getting Geithner (and Larry Summers) out would be a big plus.

[Po_d Mainiac]

32. But there does not appear to be any distance growing between

the oval office and LS. Replacing someone that fails to understand the basic problem (BB) with someone who helped to cause the problem, and fails to realize/acknowledge that (LS) fails to make me feel warm and fuzzy.

[Demeter]

35. You Are Preaching to the Choir!

Perhaps there's someone behind the scenes that can bring down Larry Summers, although last time, he brought himself down....:evilgrin: The biggest bastards always do themselves in.

[DemReadingDU]

20. Here's a good video: ITS JUST SURREAL

7/14/09
appx 9 minutes long,
discusses the rigged earnings by Goldman Sachs,
how it's all about saving the banks first,
It's really good appx 7 minutes into the video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dkJqxC-zh8

edit: contemplating sending this to my clueless family who usually just delete anything I send them because, well, they have 'other priorities'

[DemReadingDU]

22. video from The ModernMystic

7/14/09 Market Mover Meredith
appx 4 minutes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEQJewX_Uac

He has some comments about Meredith Whitney, and reads ilargi's comments posted from The Automatic Earth http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/07/july-13-2009-bull-call.html

[Tansy_Gold]

26. UPDATE THE FRONT PAGE -- Another one behind bars

UpInArms posted this yesterday afternoon in LBN

US judge gives fraud lawyer 20 years in prison

By Grant McCool

NEW YORK, July 13 (Reuters) - Marc Dreier, a high-profile New York lawyer who admitted to a $400 million investment fund fraud that unraveled at the same time as Bernard Madoff's huge swindle, was sentenced to 20 years imprisonment on Monday.

Dreier's sentencing proceeding in Manhattan federal court was punctuated with discussion and comparison to the multibillion-dollar Madoff fraud after the government had asked for a 145 year sentence for Dreier. Madoff, 71, was sentenced to 150 years in prison last month for a fraud of as much as $65 billion with thousands of investors swindled.

"When you turn to the facts of the crime that Mr Dreier committed, one must still be appalled," U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff said. "It is a huge fraud by any standard, other than the Madoff standard."

Even though the better-known Madoff's fraud was much larger than Dreier's scheme, U.S. prosecutors had requested the same effective life term for the Harvard and Yale educated lawyer as they did for the once-respected financier.

*****

The gray-haired Dreier, dressed in a dark business suit, stood in court and made his own statement before the judge handed him a 20-year prison sentence. He acknowledged that he had disgraced his former colleagues and the legal profession.

"I am sorry, deeply sorry for the harm, the sadness that I have caused so many people," Dreier said. "An apology doesn't fix anything, doesn't give anyone's money back and doesn't give anyone their job back."

[ozymandius]

28. Oh Goody!

Another one doing the pokey in the pokey.

[Demeter]

36. Dreier is only 59; 20 years isn't a life sentence!

After all, I doubt he ever went without the best health care money can buy.

Of course, now that he's in the tender arms of the State, that will change.

[Demeter]

37. Wouldn't You Like to Fly in The GS Balloon?

Pumping away like mad.

[UpInArms]

39. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i


Last trade 79.410 Change -0.621 (-0.80%)


Dollar, Dow and Deflation

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Chart_Patterns_and_Implications1247665941457.html

Crowd behavior trends and reverses in recognizable patterns and in turn affects free market price behavior. The model that recognizes as much is the wave principle (commonly referred to as Elliott Wave). The following charts and accompanying analysis expand on the June 18th Equities and Carry Trade Topped report. The interpretation of multiple markets’ price patterns indicate that the deflationary environment experienced in the summer and fall of 2008 has returned. There are several ways that Forex participants can take advantage of the situation, most notably through buying the US dollar and/or shorting carry trade currency pairs.

<snipping chart>

Stock markets, whether in Europe, Asia, or the United States, all appear headed lower throughout the remainder of 2009. With global equity markets moving in sync since topping in 2007, a view of the DJIA will suffice. The decline from the 2007 high above 14,000 was in 5 waves (an impulse) and the recovery from the March low is a corrective 3 wave affair. Market movements in the direction of the larger trend occur in 5 waves. Similarly, 3 wave market movements are classified as corrections. The rally from the low is corrective (in this case a complex correction), and will therefore be entirely retraced. Is it possible that a larger degree brings the Dow back to 10,000 or so before the larger bear resumes? Anything is possible but other markets appear to have already turned, which favors the downside from the current juncture. Also, corrections tend to end near the 4th wave of one less degree, which is the case here (see arrow). The position of the 200 day SMA (in red) also supports bears. The smaller chart is a 240 minute bar chart and shows the wave count at a smaller degree of trend. An acceleration of the decline this month is expected.

...more...


Rising U.S. Consumer Prices Could Raise Interest Rate Outlook and Dollar Support

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Rising_U_S__Consumer_Prices_Could_1247631378558.html

U.S. consumer prices are forecasted to have fallen to -1.5% in June on an annualized basis signaling that deflation risks remain. Yet, prices are expected to have risen 0.6% over the month on the back of surging commodity prices which account for 39.6% of the index.



Fundamental Outlook

U.S. consumer prices are forecasted to have fallen to -1.5% in June on an annualized basis signaling that deflation risks remain. Yet, prices are expected to have risen 0.6% over the month on the back of surging commodity prices which account for 39.6% of the index. Indeed, we saw producer prices over the same period jump 1.8% on higher gasoline costs which was twice as much as expected. Gasoline costs and automobile prices constitute the transportation category which rose 0.8% last month and is trending higher. Its 15.3% weight will also contribute to a higher headline figure. However, oil prices falling back below $60 bbl and the drop in the annual reading will keep deflation concerns alive. A rise in inflation will raise the interest rate outlook and could provide dollar support which would validate the bearish EUR/USD technical outlook.

...more...

[Dr.Phool]

40. These cigarette taxes are getting ridiculous.

$23,148,855,308,184,500 for a pack of smokes
N.H. man surprised to see 17-digit charge after purchase at gas station


MANCHESTER, N.H. - A New Hampshire man says he swiped his debit card at a gas station to buy a pack of cigarettes and was charged over 23 quadrillion dollars.

Josh Muszynski checked his account online a few hours later and saw the 17-digit number — a stunning $23,148,855,308,184,500 (twenty-three quadrillion, one hundred forty-eight trillion, eight hundred fifty-five billion, three hundred eight million, one hundred eighty-four thousand, five hundred dollars).

Muszynski says he spent two hours on the phone with Bank of America trying to sort out the string of numbers and the $15 overdraft fee.

The bank corrected the error the next day.

Bank of America tells WMUR-TV only the card issuer, Visa, could answer questions. Visa, in turn, referred questions to the bank.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31920273/

--------------------------------------------------------
What the hell did he buy? A pack of Derivative King Menthol?

And he had to spend two hours on the phone trying to get BoA to straighten out the charge!

[Hugin]

42. I bet he's wishing it had been a cash advance...

One can almost disappear with $23 Quadrillion Big...

'Cept for your wallet. They could probably spot that well into the next galaxy... What with this fancy Hubble Telescope and what-not.

[mbperrin]

48. See? Smokin's bad for ya!

I know at those prices, my dad never could have smoked five packs of Camels a day!

:evilgrin: :evilgrin:

[mullard12ax7]

49. Anyone catch that pullback in trading today? Oh there wasn't one?

No corruption here, move along, nothing to see here.

[DemReadingDU]

50. Well, Fed boosts outlook for overall economy in 2009 and 2010

7/15/09 Bad news and good news from the Fed
The central bank said unemployment could hit 10% this year, but also said the economic decline could soon end and raised its growth forecast for 2010.

The unemployment rate could top 10% later this year, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday, but the central bank also said it believes the end of the recession could be in sight.

These forecasts were included in the minutes of the central bank's June 24 meeting. At that meeting the Fed left its key interest rate near zero percent, but said there were signs of a recovery in some sectors, including the financial markets.

Fed policymakers now believe that the unemployment rate will rise to between 9.8% and 10.1% in 2009 before declining modestly next year. The Fed had forecast in April that unemployment would top out in a range of 9.2% to 9.6% this year, but the rate reached 9.5% in June.

The Fed also issued a slightly more optimistic forecast for the economy. The Fed said the nation's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, should decline by between 1% and 1.5% in 2009, compared to an earlier forecast of a drop of between 1.3% to 2%. Policymakers also raised their forecast for GDP growth in 2010.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/15/news/economy/fed_minutes_economy_forecast/index.htm?postversion=2009071514


:eyes:

[mullard12ax7]

52. FED speaks, FED pumps with the help of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, et al

Nobody dares step in their way, we've got a corrupt and failed system of deregulated capitalism to protect!

[florida08]

51. Investors Say ‘Tarnished’ Fed Shouldn’t Oversee Risk

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Investors led by two former U.S. securities regulators are urging that an independent board monitor firms that pose a risk to markets, breaking with the administration’s plan to give the job to the Federal Reserve.

A committee led by former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairmen William Donaldson and Arthur Levitt also said the U.S. should consider limiting banks’ proprietary trading, merge some agencies and bring insurance companies under federal supervision. The group, in a report released today, says it’s offering a “bolder” overhaul of market rules than proposed by the Treasury Department last month.

The Fed’s “credibility has been tarnished by the easy credit policies it pursued and the lax regulatory oversight that let institutions ratchet higher their balance sheet leverage and amass huge concentrations of risky, complex securitized products,” the report by the Investors’ Working Group said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=ahejSLs7kIMM

Won't hold my breath

[mullard12ax7]

53. Consumer prices jump at quickest pace in 11 months except they're down

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consumer-prices-jump-apf-785736054.html?x=0


---Consumer prices climb in June at quickest pace in 11 months, industrial production slide slows

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer prices shot up in June by the largest amount in 11 months, reflecting the biggest jump in gasoline prices in nearly five years.

The Labor Department said Wednesday that inflation at the consumer level rose by 0.7 percent last month, slightly higher than the 0.6 percent increase that economists were expecting. It was the biggest one-month gain since a 0.7 percent increase last July.

...Underscoring the low threat of accelerating inflation, prices in June compared to a year ago were actually down by 1.4 percent, the biggest year-over-year decline in nearly six decades.---


Isn't propaganda wonderful? AP can put out a headline that has nothing to do with reality and contradict their own story in their own story and nobody cares! Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

[Robbien]

54. Company bankruptcies better option for bankster creditors

'Company Failure Can Pay Investors More Than Success'

July 15, 2009 (FinancialWire) -- Dr. Susanne Trimbath's "Outside The Ivory Tower" blog at Investrend Weblogs recently laid-out a strong argument that, in the current market environment, lack of success for a company could mean the opposite for shareholders. As an example, Trimbath notes the market value of Bank of America (NYSE: BAC | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) in March was $32 billion, while the contracts that payoff if Bank of America fails are worth $119 billion.

From the blog post:

"Back in March I wrote a piece for NewGeography.com, called Burnin' Down the House, on the financial crisis. I used data on derivatives outstanding made available by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation for publicly traded credit default swap contracts and compared that to the market value for public companies based on recent closing stock prices. In case after case, there are more derivatives than there are underlying assets - meaning you could buy all the equity to take control of a company, drive the company into default, and profit from the derivatives payoff.

"Here's an example of just how absurd this is: The market value of Bank of America in March was $32 billion; the contracts that payoff if Bank of America fails are worth $119 billion. This isn't rocket science math. It could be worth a lot more to someone to see Bank of America fail than it is to see them succeed. The article includes a table with some financial companies and home builders, alongside some countries, to give an idea of what the potential payoff would be of letting them collapse.

more . . .

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2422639/



Which I guess answers the question of why Goldman is pushing the Obama Admin to allow CIT Group to fall into bankruptcy.

[Hawkowl]

71. GS did the same to Lehman

GS is giving a new meaning to the word "predatory". They will destroy the entire worlds economy because the US government has guaranteed to pay off the insurance GS has taken out via AIG and others. A direct pipeline of tax payer dollars into the pockets of GS employees.

Were are being systematically fleeced with no sign of stopping.

[Robbien]

55. Trading of CIT has been halted

CNBC just reported that a resolution should be coming within 24 hours.

[DemReadingDU]

56. Resolution?

Bailout?
Bankruptcy?
neither?
both?

[DemReadingDU]

63. CIT Announces That Discussions with Government Agencies Have Ceased

* Press Release
* Source: CIT Group Inc.
* On Wednesday July 15, 2009, 6:03 pm EDT

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT - News), a leading provider of financing to small businesses and middle market companies, today announced that it has been advised that there is no appreciable likelihood of additional government support being provided over the near term.
The Company’s Board of Directors and management, in consultation with its advisors, are evaluating alternatives.

Individuals interested in receiving future updates on CIT via e-mail can register at http://newsalerts.cit.com.

About CIT

CIT (NYSE: CIT - News) is a bank holding company with more than $60 billion in finance and leasing assets that provides financial products and advisory services to small and middle market businesses. Operating in more than 50 countries across 30 industries, CIT provides an unparalleled combination of relationship, intellectual and financial capital to its customers worldwide. CIT maintains leadership positions in small business and middle market lending, retail finance, aerospace, equipment and rail leasing, and vendor finance. Founded in 1908 and headquartered in New York City, CIT is a member of the S&P 500 and Fortune 500. www.cit.com

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CIT-Announces-That-bw-984603536.html?x=0&.v=1

[Demeter]

70. Guess they didn't kiss the right asses.

[Robbien]

73. TPTB are trying to put the CIT blame on Sheila Bair over at FDIC

The team of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and OCC chief John Dugan are trying to paint Sheila Bair and the FDIC as the villains in the CIT situation. CK this missive I just got from one of the members of the working press:

“The lobbyists are ready to string Bair up and claim this could be the end of every small business in America. The lefty academic types say it’s a terrible precedent, too small to care etc

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/cit-is-not-the-fdics-problem/




What Do AIG and CIT Have in Common? Asset Deflation
http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAstory.asp?tag=370

The Fed and Treasury (and the lobbyists for the small business mafia) are trying to get a bailout a la the banks in terms of cheaper funding costs for CIT, but FDIC is right to say no. CIT’s bank, which we rate “F” by the way, has a whole $3 billion in assets. But the real issue is that the asset values of CIT and most of the financials are falling — and the markets know it. No amount of subsidy will fix this situation.

The trouble with CIT is the same problem affecting many financials, namely that the value of assets is now below the face value of the liabilities. As Nassim Taleb any many others have suggested, the only way to fix this is debt-for-equity conversion and asset write-downs. The policy of “extend and pretend” that is being used by the Obama Administration is going to soon run out of time. CIT illustrates the basic issue and one that we’ll be hearing a lot about in coming months. — Chris

[Robbien]

72. No US Bankster will be hurt in this process---Europeans left holding the bag

European CDOs would suffer widespread hit from CIT

LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - CIT Group Inc (CIT.N) tops the list of names in portfolios of European synthetic CDOs rated by Standard & Poor's, which would mean widespread default losses in the nearly $600 billion market if it files for bankruptcy.

S&P said in late 2008 that 1,053 European synthetic collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) -- 66 percent -- included CIT, a New York-based lender to small and mid-sized businesses, in their portfolios of credit default swaps (CDS).

CIT stock and bonds have fallen this week on fears of a bankruptcy filing, while a source familiar with the matter said the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp was opposed to a rescue favoured by the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve.

. . .

"CIT is quite large with $80 billion in assets and $39 billion in debt, and a bankruptcy will have some impact on the market (overall)," BNP Paribas credit strategists wrote.

more . . .

http://www.reuters.com/article/BROKER/idUSLD5536520090714?sp=true

[TheWatcher]

57. Today's Economic News in a nutshell.

Intel and Goldman Sachs have saved the entire Global Economy with one phony earnings statement.

The Recession is now over.

Return To Your Homes.

Praise Marty Moose.

Oh, and "Green Shoots."

That Is All.

[Dr.Phool]

58. Who is Marty Moose?

[tclambert]

61. Marty Moose is the cartoon mascot of Walley World in National Lampoon's Vacation.

"Sorry folks! We're closed for two weeks." Clark Griswold punches the Marty Moose speaker in the nose.

Some say Marty Moose is a parody of Mickey Mouse. Some say Walley World is a parody of Disney World. And some say "The Stig" is not a single individual at all. (That's a Top Gear reference.)

[TheWatcher]

64. Very good tclambert.

:)

I knew you had potential. :)

The whole thing is a Parody of Disney World and Six Flags. It's always been one of my favorite comedies. Chevy Chase, when he was on, was one of the best.

I think I use that line a lot because Clark Griswald pretty much reminds me of the mentality of the American Public when it comes to most.....Anything really. :)

[TheWatcher]

65. Hey Doc, did you see what happened with The Vix while the criminals were goosing the Casino today?

I think said criminals are sending us a message.

Something is UP.

And I have a strong feeling that pretty soon it won't be this Market.

[Dr.Phool]

74. No, I was pretty much gone all day.

What's up?

[TheWatcher]

75. The Vix ROSE Sharply during the silly run-up

The Vix hit its lowest level this morning since last September and then reversed sharply despite the Meth party that Wall Street threw today.

Found these opinions on the matter:

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/07/strong-upside-day-for-stocks-vix-higher.html

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/stop-trading.html

I would pay close attention. This isn't a healthy environment.

The Market is so manipulated at this point that maybe the technicals and fundamentals are irrelevant, but traditionally, this divergence is a sign that Something Wicked this Way Comes.

Or they could just run it up to 10,000 for the rest of the summer and everything falls apart in September/Early October.

We'll see. :)

[Dr.Phool]

78. Things settled down for a couple of weeks.

Just as the Goldman program trading was coming to light. I wondered how long they could keep their hands out of the cookie jar.

[TheWatcher]

79. I know. I think the Goldman Trading thing was pretty much the smoking gun that revealed

That our Markets are completely fake.

"Could be used to manipulate the Market in unfair ways....."

COULD Be.....

:eyes:

I meant to comment about that when the story came out, but things have been so busy I didn't get the chance.

What astounded me was the almost complete mute response on DU, save for this thread of course.

Further illustrating the fact that America just can't be bothered defend itself against what is now it's obvious DOMESTIC enemies.

It's all a complete joke.

[Zenlitened]

62. Important economists strongly believe...

"Important economists strongly believe current seasonal lull is low point of the industrial depression; some good news in week-over week freight increase and June rise in construction contracts. Drop in steel backlog not as bad as feared; oil curtailment making progress; increase in rail freight rates."

News From 1930

[TheWatcher]

67. You know, before I read the title of the link, I could have sworn that was from Bloomberg. TODAY.

Pretty scary, huh?

[Zenlitened]

83. Yep. Kinda jaw-dropping, some days.

:wow:

[Festivito]

76. Debt: 07/13/2009 11,525,392,902,001.60 (UP 786,611,836.56) (Down a tiny bit.)

(Small move down 0.0006B$.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,180,647,818,637.96 + 4,344,745,083,363.64
DOWN 617,291.42 + UP 787,229,127.98

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,861,542 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,558.94.
A family of three owes $112,676.81. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 6,838,189,656.06.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,014,672,414.44.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,852,908,788.17.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 119 reports in 174 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.29B$ per report, -0.13B$/day so far.
There were 194 reports in 286 days of FY2009 averaging 7.74B$ per report, 5.25B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,287 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.3 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/13/2009 11,525,392,902,001.60 BHO (UP 898,515,853,088.52 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,500,668,005,089.20 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/23/2009 +000,354,103,704.29 ------------********
06/24/2009 -034,732,231,983.69 -
06/25/2009 -002,856,149,844.34 --
06/26/2009 +000,335,751,413.22 ------------********
06/29/2009 +000,126,971,012.08 ------------******** Mon
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********
07/09/2009 +010,396,425,012.59 ------------**********
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon

53,312,975,845.86 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,860,761,098,742.53 in last 298 days.
That's 1,861B$ in 298 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 183% of that highest year ever only in 298 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 298 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3967795&mesg_id=3968986

[Festivito]

77. Debt: 07/14/2009 11,528,990,866,940.74 (UP 3,597,964,939.14) (Up some.)

(Small moves up.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,180,892,052,603.57 + 4,348,098,814,337.17
UP 244,233,965.61 + UP 3,353,730,973.53

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,868,742 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,569.78.
A family of three owes $112,709.34. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 6,697,310,320.54.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,134,604,579.08.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,813,691,792.89.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 120 reports in 175 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.32B$ per report, -0.14B$/day so far.
There were 195 reports in 287 days of FY2009 averaging 7.71B$ per report, 5.24B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,286 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.3 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/14/2009 11,528,990,866,940.74 BHO (UP 902,113,818,027.66 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,504,265,970,028.30 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/24/2009 -034,732,231,983.69 -
06/25/2009 -002,856,149,844.34 --
06/26/2009 +000,335,751,413.22 ------------********
06/29/2009 +000,126,971,012.08 ------------******** Mon
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********
07/09/2009 +010,396,425,012.59 ------------**********
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********

53,203,106,107.18 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,864,359,063,681.67 in last 299 days.
That's 1,864B$ in 299 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 183% of that highest year ever only in 299 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 299 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3969602&mesg_id=3971014