AP Poll Finds Bush, Kerry Tied in Race

[Paragon]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=1&u=/ap/20040304/ap_on_el_pr/ap_poll_president

WASHINGTON - In the first poll since John Kerry locked up the Democratic nomination, Kerry and President Bush are tied while independent Ralph Nader has captured enough support to affect the outcome, validating Democrats' fears.

The Republican incumbent had the backing of 46 percent, Kerry 45 percent and Nader, the 2000 Green Party candidate who entered the race last month, was at 6 percent in the survey conducted for The Associated Press by Ipsos-Public Affairs.

Bush and the four-term Massachusetts senator, who emerged as the nominee Tuesday after a string of primary race wins over several rivals, have been running close or Kerry has been ahead in most recent polls that did not include Nader...

[West Coast Democrat]

1. Nader will NEVER get 6% of the vote

But Bushco can keep dreaming.

[bluestateguy]

2. Thanks Ralph!

You disgusting communist pile of shit!

[The Zanti Regent]

58. Let's open the Skeleton closet again

Let the world see what a narcissistic asshole Nader REALLY is!

http://www.realchange.org/nader.htm

Nader--NO FRIEND OF LABOR!

"How can we go out and try to save the world from people when we're grinding people to death all the time?"-- John Esposito, original staffer at Nader's Center for the Study of Responsive Law

"Nader strikes me as conforming to the stereotype people have of sociologists and politicians: they bleed for the poor and downtrodden but mistreat their maids." -- David Sanford

Like many Washington politicians, Ralph Nader's groups have long taken advantage of earnest young ambitious workers, with two differences; Nader was more controlling and paid far less. In 1976, many were paid $5,000 per year and only a few at the top made as much as $20,000. (Nader's organizations refuse to release information on what they pay workers.) Meanwhile, Nader required daily logs of everything the workers did from 7am to 9pm, plus monthly summaries of these logs. If you didn't turn in your logs, you didn't get paid.

Nader often called workers after midnight or on sunny weekend days, with instructions, or just to test their willingness to work hard. When a revolt over working conditions broke out in the Congress Project and students demanded a group session with Nader, he contemptuously scheduled a meeting at 7:00 am, believing that few would show up.

9 marriages of staffers broke up under the pressure, including John and Nancy Esposito's, Mark Green's, Sid Wolfe's, and Davitt McAteer's.

What makes this meanness worse is that Nader claims to be defending workers -- for example in opposing the GATT treaty -- and that his organizations have a huge surplus of money, accumulating millions of dollar with which Ralph has played the stock market.

[bluestateguy]

71. Also

This "progressive" supported the Clinton impeachment and was silent during the war in Iraq.

[progressiverealist]

3. looks like Ralphie has gotten his wish... he will be able to help re-elect

George W. Bush.

And people wonder why we hate this lousy puke.

[Demobrat]

20. I don't understand that reasoning.

Why the assumption that anybody who would vote for Nader would vote Dem if he wasn't in the race? It seems to me that a Nader vote is a protest vote against both parties, and that if he didn't run that group would find another way to protest, not just shrug and vote Democratic.

[progressiverealist]

28. the reasoning:

first, you're right that not all of the Naderites would vote dem if Ralphie didn't run... but a hell of a lot of them would.

Second, with Bush attacking from the right and Nader attacking from the left, Kerry must fight a two-front war, so to speak.

[Carni]

29. Oh yeah- right...

I know a lot of right leaning Republicans that will vote for Nader as an alternative to bush.

[Demobrat]

31. Nader isn't an alternative to anybody.

I know plenty of Nader voters here in SF, and they wouldn't vote for either mainstream party. I have always thought that any attention given to Nader or Nader voters by Dems was a waste of time. Better to concentrate on the middle and those who's minds are not already made up. Nader voters are a group unto themselves.

[MessiahRp]

74. That's not entirely true.

I know a lot of 2000 Nader voters who were all Dems but thought Gore was too vanilla or too establishment... so they gave the Greens a shot, but they all now suffer from Buyer's Remorse as anyone with a shred of conscience should have and will vote Dem this year to not repeat the past four years of Republican Right Wing Hell.

I would like to reiterate this same position to anyone who thinks not voting for Kerry is so important to their own conscience. Four years of Bush not facing an electorate will make your life so miserable it's almost like saying you'll be sorry if you don't just work to get Bush out.

Sorry to put it that way but reality is just that and four years of Bush with a Republican Congress and no electorate to answer to is going to be as bad as allowing the Nazis to take over here....

Rp

[Crachet2004]

54. I know one who did last time...

No joke! He did it as a protest against the GOP...but I explained the whole deal, and he's with us this time.

Plus, I read just today on one of the boards, some woman said she was Democrat while her husband always voted 2ND amendment...said HE might vote for Nader this time! Unless the gun debate gets stirred up again!

I hope it does not!

[alittlelark]

47. Call me a whacko, but I think his reasoning is sound - for the result

he wants. The ONLY way that the US will become Nader's utopian dreamland (I think it's a great IDEA....) is through a revolution of the masses. If * somehow gets re-elected, there would be a good possibility of just such a thing happening.
Who would be the obvious leader in the aftermath?

Think it through before you flame me.


Dated Clark, Married Kerry

[Frances]

49. Fat chance

Like the people in Russia revolted against Stalin or the people in Germany revolted against Hitler or the people in Alabama revolted against George Wallace

No, the scenario would be the same as the one after the Civil War. African Americans and poor whites got power. Then the rich whites turned the poor whites against the African Americans and were in total control of the South until Martin Luther King. Now the rich whties are taking back the power King gave to poor people. And Nader is helping them.

[alittlelark]

52. I'm talking about his Mind-Set

the way HE sees the world. That it would actually happen is highly debatable. However, the only Logic I can see in what he is doing is this scenario. Perhaps I'm missing something.........

[Crachet2004]

55. Get real...not Ralph!

Ralph Nader couldn't run a 7-11.

[alittlelark]

57. To you as well - analyze it from the perspective of HIS thought process.

Is there any other LOGICAL reason he is entering the race??

[Crachet2004]

66. Sure there are other logical reasons.

Ralph is on the take and always has been, for one! He won't reveal his tax returns, because they will show buys and sells of the very corporate monstrosities he rails against. Ralph is in it for the money...just like everyone else. Why is that so hard to believe?

He first gained notoriety with "Unsafe at Any Speed", a book which effectively trashed a rear-engine, aircooled American-made automobile the Corvair...took it off the road. Soon it was replace by a
German-built rear-engine aircooled automobile...the VW. Ralph made token protest against it too, to no (of course) avail.

If Ralph rants against oil companies, it is because coal companies are paying him. If he raves against 'both parties' who does it really hurt? Then ask yourself, who does it help? That will be who is paying Ralph! Everytime. He does nothing for free.

Go to his exploratory website and check out the Donate button. The FReepers almost have it worn out! Ralph knows none of us are gonna contribute. That's his 'bribe button'.

Believe what you will, but Ralph Nader is no damn good and never has been! He knows exactly what he is doing and it isn't nearly as convoluted as you seem to believe. With Ralph, it is all about money and always has been!

[alittlelark]

67. I want to believe that he does what he does for honorable intent

but I have no proof. I REALLY REALLY WANT to believe that someone would work for the good of the masses. Thusfar, he is not the one.

[Crachet2004]

72. No he isn't...but those type people really are born occassionally.

DK might be such a man. A lot of people thought John Kennedy was such a man. I don't know. I figure he was, because they shot him. Bobby, MLK, Wellstone,Huey Long and there are many more. The really good ones don't make it, if it looks like they are getting ready to make a difference.

I've watched Nader for over 30 years, and trust me, he doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath with the men mentioned above.

That's partly why some of us get so worked up over this new candidacy of his. He is a flimflam man who will do everything he can to destroy the legacy of these giants (and many others) listed above-and he is doing it for money. If Ralph were for real, he would have long since begun to annually reveal his tax returns.

He cannot. To those who believe in him, it would be like in the 'Wizard of Oz', when they rip aside the curtain to reveal...a man. Nothing more. Not a saint, not a crusader, not a man on a white horse...just an ordinary, greedy, little man.

[Protagoras]

77. actually this sounds like a pretty funny poll

with a lot of people converting to Ralph just to mess with the results. Nader at the peak of his support got what...2.5%? So 6% is laughable...I suspect a lot of currently disappointed democrats and greens who plan to vote with the Democratic nominee in November used their answer on this poll to tweak some noses. But it won't change what's going to happen in the end.

[BeyondGeography]

4. Nader at 6%, that's the good news

Hard to see how most of that number doesn't wind up in JK's column.

[Zero Gravitas]

11. I'll tell you how

a bunch of smug, self-satisfied, sanctimonious, mental midgets will go ahead and vote for Nader because they'd rather have four more years of War-President Bush than actually get off their backsides and make a real difference to the country.

They expect the Democratic Party to transform itself overnight into something they approve of 100%. Of course they won't actually DO anything to make that change happen other than whine about how it isn't happening. They won't even lower themselves to vote for a less than ideal candidate even to get rid of the Bush fascists. They are as much our enemy as the freepers are. Pricks.

[progressiverealist]

25. exactly. Naderites are no different than freepers in my book.

[illumn8d]

69. Hmmmm....sounds a lot like

The "Gore and Bush are the same argument" that Nader ran on in 2000. Get a grip, Nader didn't 5% last time (which is why a lot of people voted for him so the green party get the matching funds), he won't get more than 2% this time. Anyway, if you want to live up to your internet handle, progressiverealist, try getting these people to vote Kerry. Here's a hint, don't call them freepers ;)

[ellie]

38. Thank you WPE

I couldn't have said it better myself!

[sendero]

51. I won't say ditto...

... but I will say well said. A protest vote is the equivalent of a 2-year-olds temper tantrum. It is utterly useless.

[AlabamaYankee]

5. It's not the number of votes, it's the distribution

As we know to our sorrow, it doesn't really matter who is "ahead" in total vote count, what matters is how these votes are distributed across the states. In the end the Electoral College votes are the only ones that count.

[seasat]

6. I've got freinds that are Nader supporters.

They tell me that when polled they will say they support Nader but when they vote, they will vote for Kerry. I don't see how anyone that stands for what Naders stands for could dislike Kerry that much. Kerry has one of the best voting records ever during his term on issues that Nader supports such as the environment and consumer protection. I think we'll here how much support Nader has but in the end, they'll vote for what's best for the country.

[Frances]

62. Have your friends thought about how much easier it will be

for Bush to manipulate the touchscreen voting tallies if the polls say that the race is even? He will have a much harder time if the polls say that he is 10 points down.

[onehandle]

7. Bull. 1% max. Nader is history. Bad History. nt

[Logansquare]

43. Only 2.7 percent in 2000--where'd they get this 6 percent figure?

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040223/ap_on_el_pr/nader_10

[peacebuzzard]

59. Sent Kerry a contribution...thanks for link

He has got to rack it up for the big fight...just cream him, Kerry.

[Zero Gravitas]

8. Fucking Naderites

make my blood boild almost as much as Bush does.
Grrrrr.

[progressiverealist]

9. Duh huh Duh huh... I'm anti-establishment! I vote Nader! See how

counter-culture I am! Help help! I'm being oppressed by the DLC! Nader!

Nader!


Nader!!

[Evil_Dewers]

10. Bullshit.

Nader got 2.7% of the vote in 2000.

But now he's going to get 6%?

Bullshit.

[truebrit71]

19. There is no fucking way Ralphies gets anywhere CLOSE to 6%...

Look, the only way they can steal this election is if they maintain that it is close right up til November... that way noone bitches when Diebold hands the victory to *.

If the truth were EVER told, which is that * is gonna get his ASS handed to him in Novemeber, then a steal would be very difficult to pull off....

Look, I think that Grandpa Nader has some valid points, but this election is too crucial to be fucked up with some vanity candidacy...So thanks but take a seat old man...we got some bush to eat.... ;-)

[redqueen]

21. Awww, c'mon

People are clearly in need of something to hyperventilate about... I guess we might as well let it be republican spin that nobody but them believes, right?

Such melodrama... :eyes:

[onehandle]

12. This poll is Not what it appears...

Here we see that the poll was mostly conducted before Kerry had the nomination sewn up. Super Tuesday was not decided until late on the second of March. Not until the third for people not paying attention. Also, these are Not all registered voters. (Larger margin of error)

"The Associated Press-Ipsos poll on the economy and President Bush is based on telephone interviews with 1,000 randomly selected adults from all states except Alaska and Hawaii. The interviews were conducted March 1-3 by Ipsos-Public Affairs. The sample includes 771 registered voters.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040304/ap_on_el_pr/ap_ipsos_president_method&cid=694&ncid=2043

Let's see what the numbers are in a couple of weeks, bozos.

[jwcomer]

76. ipsos polls

Ipsos runs a so-so poll. From my analysis, Ipsos has some problems with consistency of its sample pool. But more significant, its sample pool seems to run more liberal than that of most of other polls (by about 5% points). I suspect that the unrealistically high Nader count is mostly due to the bias in their survey pool. From the data it is not possible to determine if the bias swing from Nader to Kerry is sufficient to overcome the bias swing from Kerry to Bush as the sample pool is moved to a more accurate one. If I had to guess, I would say the two biases cancel each other out, and Kerry and Bush really are neck-and-neck but at ~48% each.

[eagler]

13. Need some dirt on Nader

Time to start acting like repugs.

[davhill]

34. Like is he being funded secretly by the RNC?

[underpants]

14. That's fine a looooooooooong way to go

6% huh? Sounds a bit high but that just could be making noise to get KErry to pay attention to them. Could also be people from both sides messing around.

[eagler]

15. Don't you find it a bit wierd that

its always so evenly split?

[symbolman]

17. Exactly

anyone notice within the last 4 years or so that nearly ALL races are "neck and neck" and that the country is "evenly divided" on issues as we are "polarized"..

it's how they steal elections.

and a media ploy.. got some serious psyops now being used against OUR OWN PEOPLE.

I predict that even if Bush eats a dead rat on live television that it will be a "close call" and "down to the wire", etc, etc..

[Emillereid]

16. I'd say this is a message to Kerry that if he wants to win, he needs the

Nader vote -- which means he needs to shore up his left flank. Even though I have decided to vote for him, he is not speaking to me (I am passionately antiwar and anti US foreign policy). I'm one of the people who would probably vote for Nader if I ever felt free enough to vote my conscience!) I am sure that he will be advised to pander to the so-called middle and not worry about the left -- well maybe Nader being in the race will make him think twice about that strategy. We are tired of being taken for granted. LEAD Kerry LEAD -- don't just follow the tired, old, prevailing wisdom. You can articulate another vision of America that will give us a real choice. George Bush has moved the spectrum so far to the right -- Kerry needs to move it back. He will get the so-called middle if he is honest, consistent and shows leadership.

[GOPBasher]

18. I'm not one to bash Nader voters, but here's what I don't get.

I really don't want to bash Nader voters. And I can see why people wanted vote for him in 2000, because Gore was really running as a centrist. However, John Kerry is as left wing as it gets in this country. He'd be our most left wing President since Lyndon Johnson. So why vote for Nader now? If Kerry is not left enough for you, that's cool, I can understand that. But please realize, Kerry is as good as it gets in this country. In fact, I'd say Kerry is to the left of LBJ, because of war issues.

[redqueen]

22. Nader's being a tool

Don't be another one... recognize repug spin for what it is.

There is NO WAY IN HELL Nader's gonna get 6%.

He's not even going to make the freaking BALLOT in most states! :eyes:

[progressiverealist]

24. so then the dipshit Naderites will write him in n/t

[Jackpine Radical]

44. Only the ones that can write.

[tom_paine]

23. AP is an institution thoroughly infiltrated by Busheviks

It is no coinkydink that AP has been "selected" to do the Exit Polling after VNS was conveniently disbanded in 2002, the Year of the Stunning Bushevik "Upsets".

AP Exit Polling is as trustworthy as Soviet Pravda Exit Polling.

No surprise that this AP Poll, like other Bushevik polls designed to "fill a phony backstory", is as different than all the others as I'm sure a Heritage Foundation poll would be.

Parts of AP may still be vibrant and honest, but AP is a Bushevik organization. I imagine they targeted a long time ago, considering small-town Amerika get 98% of it's news stories off the AP Wire.

They are NOT trustworthy and this Bushevik-skewed poll coincientally out of whack with all the others, is merely more proof.

Do NOT trust AP.

[The Blue Knight]

27. Wasn't Kerry beating Bush by 12 points last week?

Rofl, I love the polls!

[progressiverealist]

Kerry's lead evaporated when Ralphie declared his candacy.

[tom_paine]

32. He still is, in all the other polls

Which was my point. A Bushevik Totalitarian Tactic is to commission these polls to provide a backstory for election theft.

It has happened before.

[llmart]

26. Oh, come on people!

You don't really believe this AP shit, do you? Tell me how only a week ago the polls were showing both Kerry and Edwards stomping *'s ass in the polls and now it's neck in neck? I don't believe this for a minute! Propaganda.

[Art_from_Ark]

39. I certainly don't believe this shit

This is coming from a "news" organization that had posted articles about "events" before they had even happened!

[DemNoir]

30. Relax!

There is no possible way he can get 6%. The fact they are showing him at
that level shows the poll is wrong or just plain corrupt.

[Voltaire99]

33. Peaking so soon? So much for "electability"!

But...but...we were told the reason we had to grit our teeth and back Kerry was that he's so eminently "electable."

Chalk it up to a lesson learned: the corporate right wing of the Democratic Party will always tell you that your progressive principles must be sacrificed for victory.

Let us step back in time for a moment. Many months ago, the left warned the party not to try foisting another DLC candidate upon us. Nader even offered to stay out if the Democrats picked a progressive.

And were these warnings heeded? Dean was summarily destroyed, Kucinich and Sharpton were trivialized, and Edwards was ignored. Now we see Kerry peaking only a few days after securing the nomination. Nobody can say we weren't warned.

Everyone here understands, or should understand, the numbers. To surmount GOP scare tactics and likely election fraud, the Democrats need a significant lead going into November. That includes Nader's 6 percent.

Railing against Nader is a dead end; it only fuels his candidacy. Kerry had better find a progressive as running mate. Then, if that doesn't weaken Nader's numbers, he'd better go to Nader and start trying to compromise.

[progressiverealist]

35. if we gain these dumbass naderites, we lose more from the middle

Ralphie is doing nothing but helping to re-elect Bush. If he wanted to do any real good he would run for an office that he actually had a chance of winning.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

37. addressing corporate globalization won't drive away voters

only corrupt corporate donors

kerry needs to get sme balls and rely on individuals and unions and go after the issue

[nofurylike]

46. get sme balls

so sick of the males are superior crap

yuck

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

36. unless kerry reaches out to the dean folks

who wanted to take the party back from the terry mcaulliffe crowd and give it back to the democratic wing of the democratic party, your reports of nader's politcal demise and irrelevance will be very premature

those of us who opped the war, took the streets by the thousands want a better explanation from kerry than 'i was misled'

if all of here at du and the millions worldwide could see through chimpy, then why couldn't kerry?

and we would like more than lip service on issues like NAFTA/GATT/MTR for China/FTAA/WTO, the patriot act, and more

we want real promises to address environmental, labor, and civil rights concerns-not just vague rhetoric that slightly hints at the subject

we'd like to support the democratic party, but we won't be taken for granted

[Demobrat]

40. Reach out? People wearing Dean gear are being kicked out

of Kerry events. He doesn't want anything to do with Dean supporters. Their money yes, them no.

[regnaD kciN]

73. I don't know about "Kerry events"...

...but that certainly has been the message from Kerry's most zealous supporters right here on DU. "Bow down to The Nominee, you pathetic liberal losers, or get the hell out of here and go vote for Nader."

Step 1: Turn your back on the progressive wing of the party.

Step 2: Tell them to take the treatment you're dishing out, or leave.

Step 3: If they do the latter, and you lose, blame your loss on them.

:eyes:

[Logansquare]

41. Is Nader going to be on any ballots?

I also thought the Green Party wasn't backing him this time.

[troublemaker]

42. Chill Out Folks

The only number that matters this far out is Bush's % which is pretty bad. If Bush gets 46% Kerry wins in a walk.

This race is closer than 2000, which is saying something... I think the chimp was up 5-7% at this point and throughout the race he was always polling a couple of points ahead of Gore except maybe right after the Dem convention.

The Nader "vote" is, at this early juncture, a generalized protest vote. If AP had added LaRouche to this poll instead of Nader, then Larouche would have pulled 4-5% and Bush would have stayed at 46%.

In the article they even describe a Republican who picks Nader just because he was pissed at Bush. That guy is not going to vote for Ralph Nader. I suspect he'll vote for Bush or Kerry.

[Skittles]

45. yeah but

if the media convinces everyone it's neck and neck it makes it all the more easier for that bastard Bush to be reinstalled, just like last time. As a last resort you know they will tamper with the results.

[Thucydides]

48. "the 2000 Green Party candidate " I see that Ralph is still riding

on the coatails of the Green Party! Should'nt that read "the 2004 independent candidate". I wonder how the Greens feel about that, since he bitch slapped them with a verbal tongue lashing?

[agincourt]

50. There is no difference. not

In 2000, Nader saying there's no difference between candidates might have made some sense. No one knew how bad Bush would govern.
After 3 years of this swine ,the difference between him and a democratic president should be obvious in spades by now. Nobody with a brain will buy that now.

[JohnnyFianna1]

53. With the exception of the Ultra Left 110% pure Nader voter of course N/T

[raysr]

56. This is not the time

for a protest vote. I feel that if Bush is re-selected this country will be changed for the worst so much, we'll never live long enough to get it back. Look what he's done in just 3 years! And that's just things we know about. Bush has to go. Nader needs to be smeared. I can't believe someone thinking Kerry won't be better than Bush.

[bagnana]

61. If Bush wins that's it. We are screwed for the forseeable future.

The repubs have gerrymandered the Congress into a probable majority for the next 20 years. The next pres. will likely control the makeup of the U.S. supreme court. If we lose this election, we lose the country, and may never get it back. Yes, I feel that desperate. So much rides on this election. You think the repubs don't know it? They are teetering on the edge of total u.s. and thus world domination. For the first time in history it is within their grasp, and if they get it, no one will be safe. Roe v. Wade will certainly fall. Gay rights? Ha! Gay incarceration would be more likely. Faith based-everything. More imperialist wars. Wars over oil. Environment thrown to the complete and unfettered control of corporate lobbyists. Privatized social security. No lawsuits against corporations whose negligence causes horrible injury and death. No punitive damages. The divide between haves and have-nots will turn this nation into a virtual third world country. It is happening already, and they are just waiting to get a chance to make it permanent. I donated to Kerry yesterday. He wasn't my first choice. I will donate again before the election is over. I donated to the DLC. I will donate again. Bush must go!!

[Onlooker]

60. Wanna go crazy? Start paying attention to polls.

Bush is a formidable candidate. A lot of people like him because he comes across as a typical suburban neighbor--friendly, loyal, narrow minded, patriotic, etc. But, he's been a poor president, and Kerry has some really impressive credentials.

Resign yourself to the fact that it's going to be a seesaw right up until election night.

[Name removed]

63. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[CookieD]

64. Actually, CryptoDude does not seem like your typical Freeper ...

For one thing he could spell "BWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAA."

[Nashyra]

65. If enough Democrats see this that were not motivated

it might them get out and register, also this could hurt the get out and vote effort of the Repukes if they think that Nader will do the job for them.

[leesa]

68. BS poll. Bush doesn't even have his 30% base of insane racists

and corporate whores any more. Just the most stupid of the stupid Fundies.

[Name removed]

70. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[nolabels]

75. Please tell me about fear, I would like to know

http://www.johnkerry.com/