STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 5 March (#1)

[ozymandius]

Friday March 5, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 324
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 84 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 136 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 348
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 832
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 4, 2004

Dow... 10,588.00 -5.11 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq... 2,055.11 +21.75 (+1.07%)
S&P 500... 1,154.88 +3.84 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.03% -0.03 (-0.76%)
Gold future... 393.20 +0.50 (+0.13%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.14 Change 0.00 (0.00%)

related article:

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4504893

Dollar Holding Steady Ahead of U.S. Data

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar extended recent gains to four-month highs on the yen and held fairly steady versus the euro on Friday on expectations the United States would report jobs data later that could hasten U.S. interest rate hikes.

Bets the U.S. saw its fastest jobs growth in more than three years last month boosted the dollar this week to 2004 peaks versus the yen and the euro and dealers say market optimism may have outpaced the 125,000 new jobs forecast for the 8:30 a.m. EST report.

The greenback received help climbing above 111.40 yen, its highest since November 3, from speculation Japan has continued intervening to weaken the yen after stopping its rise at 3-1/2 year highs versus the greenback set last month.

"The focus is very much on the payrolls today. What the market needs to see now is a significant upside surprise to sustain this dollar strength," said Steven Saywell, senior currency strategist at Citibank.

"If we get a number that is completely consensus that would be disappointing now for the market and may see some dollar strength unwinding. What that would effectively signal is the jobs market is still improving only gradually and the Fed needs to be in no rush to hike rates."

<snip>

"The jobs data will be crucial for the dollar," said Kenji Kobayashi, senior manager of the foreign exchange and treasury division at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in Tokyo.

He said the dollar would likely continue moving upward if non-farm payrolls came in above 200,000 but if the figure turns out lower than 100,000, the U.S. currency could come under "very strong" selling pressure.

...more...

All the news is "poised on the cusp" for the jobs data - so until 8:30 EST it will remain in the waiting for Godo mode.

here's a link where you can see the reports for the day

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Maybe we can get that "delayed" PPI and see where the auto and truck sales actually ended up!

Great 'Toon, Ozy!

Have an exciting day at the casino, Marketeers!

[54anickel]

2. Forex Traders seem to be kicking themselves a bit today

http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

snip>
Are Traders Prescient or Self-fulfilling?

Although the Fed has signaled it will not raise rates until there is sustained job growth traders were feeling increasingly vulnerable to any change in expectations. The dollar should see further buying on a better than expected payrolls number today as traders continue to look for signs that the Fed will eventually raise rates

But if the payrolls data come in as expected there is little reason to expect the Fed to raise rates this year. Moreover, central banks likely saw the recent appreciation of the dollar from 1.2930 against the euro to 1.2055 as changing the imminent need for either a rate hike by the Fed or a rate cut by the ECB.

The market’s preemptive move in anticipation of either a rate hike or a rate cut by the ECB has now made that a remote possibility as a rising dollar makes the Fed less likely to need to raise rates, while a stabilized euro keeps the ECB from having a showdown with the markets.

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

"Stop Losses for Plunge Protection?"
The 1987 Crash Offered Little Warning

An e-mail comment from a reader on a recent FSO Market Wrap Up article, “Could the Market Crash – Everyone Says “No”:

<cut>

Are stop losses adequate protection from a crash in today’s stock market? You would have to consider that throughout history, one purpose of the stock market was to take wealth from the less informed public speculators and move it to the richer and more capitalized and informed players. However, the recent rally off of the October 2002 low has contradicted this timeless trend. You have a lot of the public, who are operating as technical analysts. The practice of the technical analyst public has probably reached unprecedented levels over the last few years. At this stage of the rally most of the public is net long in the usual suspects - technology stocks. So how do you think the market can return to its timeless trend of fleecing the public while the public playing the technical analysis/momentum game in unprecedented numbers? There’s only one logical answer, and that is a crash.

I realize that the Crash Theory I suggest has no basis in the “science” of technical analysis. The science suggests that technical analysis enables the analyst (us) to detect underlying weakness in the stock market before a precipitous drop or crash occurs. But with practically everyone practicing technical analysis and observing the same weakness-indicators, it is logical that everyone will act in the same way to the same “stimulus”. This, I believe, is the stuff of a steep and devastating crash.


The 1987 Crash Did Not Issue a Forewarning to the Public

Consider the 1987 July through October daily charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). At a time when that many people think a crash will issue a forewarning for technical analysts, much of the public is counting “distribution days” and other similar technical indicators. (A distribution day is defined by IBD as a day in which the average finishes significantly down for the day on higher volume than the preceding day.) However in 1987 the crash offered no such forewarnings. I’ve outlined the distribution days with a red arrow on of the charts below. As you can see, there were very few “distribution days” before the October 1987 crash.

Got Jobs?

We’re seeing a lot of positive economic data regarding the jobs picture that suggests that new jobs are just about ready to show up (just in time) in a strengthening economy. Are you seeing the same thing from your perspective? I think that you should have some anecdotes about company meetings where management indicates that, in spite of the productivity gains you all are providing, there is a need to hire new people (in the US) and soon. Feel free to e-mail these experiences to me. Or send a note if you are not seeing such management desire to increase pay rolls to meet demand. It doesn’t have to be a long note (short is preferred) or fancy.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[troublemaker]

47. Yes and No

re: The 1987 Crash Did Not Issue a Forewarning to the Public.

Not a contradiction, just an observation. A while back I went to the microfilm out of curiosity and was amazed to see that the front page of the business section had "Is the market going to crash?" stories for days before the crash itself. Having been saturated in the business reporting of the late 1990s I was blown away by the absence of "this is a good buying opportunity" advice following the pre-crash drops.

[54anickel]

49. Welcome to DU, troublemaker. What was the answer in the stories

with that type of headline back in '87?

[UpInArms]

4. 8:30 EST reports

8:30am 03/05/04

U.S. FEB NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 21,000 VS 130,000 EXPECTED

8:30am 03/05/04

U.S. FEB. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STEADY AT 5.6%

8:30am 03/05/04

U.S. FEB. AVERAGE WORKWEEK STEADY AT 33.8

8:30am 03/05/04

U.S. FEB. AVG. HOURLY WAGES UP 0.2%; 1.6% IN PAST YEAR

8:30am 03/05/04

U.S. FEB. PVT.-SECTOR EMPLOYMENT UNCHANGED

8:30am 03/05/04

U.S. FEB. FACTORY JOBS DOWN 3,000, 43RD DECLINE IN ROW

[54anickel]

6. Whoa, am I reading that correctly? 109,000 less than expected?

[UpInArms]

7. and notice the January revision downward

to 97K

[54anickel]

11. Ewww, I didn't catch that. From 112 to 97. Thought for sure this number

would come in right around expectations. Gotta check to see what the US$ reaction is. Silly, it shouldn't really matter for the buck outside of the expectation of rising interest rates. And what are the chances of that from a single decent report in an election year?
Those Forex traders are just being silly. :silly:

[Timefortruth]

33. You need to read it like a Republican.

"What these numbers today indicate is that the recovery is in full swing, that fact is clearly displayed in the increasing number of jobs created in the economy. Compared to a point not so long ago when there were job losses, this is a dramatic improvement. To say job growth is something to be concerned about is just more negative campaigning by the Democrats."

"LOOK, OVER THERE, LAND SHARK! OR IS IT A TERRORIST?!"

[54anickel]

48. SNARF! Good one. Those darn negative Dems!

[Maeve]

12. Ye gods and little fishes!

"If the Democratic policies had been pursued over the last two or three years, the kind of tax increases that both Kerry and Edwards have talked about, we would not have had the kind of job growth that we've had."
--Dick Cheney

[UpInArms]

14. That was priceless Maeve!

ROFL!

What planet do these things exist upon?

Certainly not the one we do.

[54anickel]

16. That's a great quote Maeve!! Good to see you pop in! n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

20. Cheney is right on the money.

We would not have had the same kind of job growth that we've had. It would be much, much better.

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning Marketeers! I miss being here more often.

Lately it seems that I have been abandoning this thread just after posting. My son's daily schedule has changed and cabin fever coinciding with some gorgeous weather has called us away. Funny, though, our outings have afforded some job opportunities. I still continue to look for steady work. The fruits of this search have yielded some free-lance audio tech prospects. Otherwise, I continue to network in hopes of finding a steady gig.

As was mentioned some time ago - I am a woodworker who is about to close his shop. The date for turning out the lights is May 1st. So far, I have no plans to scale back into a smaller and cheaper space. There are buyers ready to purchase some of the bigger pieces of shop equipment. So I will, at least, leave this venture with some liquidity.

I thank you folks for carrying this thread through the day. It does make for interesting reading!

[54anickel]

8. I miss you during the day Ozy. But you certainly have your priorities

correct putting your son above watching this madness. I have always admired you for that.

Good luck in the job search, and enjoy the weekend. :hi:

[UpInArms]

9. Good Morning Ozy and 54anickel!

we miss you during the day Ozy, but understand that life is a priority (wish I had more of one these days :)

Are you watching gold?

It's up $7.20 right now.

Wow! Look at that Bush Job Machine! Going, Going, Gone!

[54anickel]

13. Dang, I knew I should have made a move before these numbers came

out. Missed another blue-light special. Oh well, I'm sure there will be a few more opportunities.

[Dogmudgeon]

10. And the Futures markets lose 1% in 15 minutes

Gold's up six bucks for 1.5%.

Gotta be some kinda record.

--bkl
Like maybe "Blitzkrieg Bop"?

[54anickel]

15. Wow, that is quite a cliff showing up on the futures chart. n/t

[JNelson6563]

17. Fascinating morning

Good morning all!

Ozy, glad you are doing what you need to do. No need to apologize for keeping your priorities straight. I really appreciate you kicking things off every morning and look forward to the superb toons you treat us to daily.

UIA and 54anickel, you both rock! You've added a new dimension to this thread a while back and it's great! I'm so glad you've been able to step in since some of us have had to reduce our input. I hope lots of lurkers stop in and enjoy all the great stuff you both post. I always enjoy when the once-in-a-while posters join the discussion too.

Onto the day's activities. Early morning hours I saw flat to lower futures in anticipation of the jobs report. I left at about 8:25 to take my son to school got home about 8:45. Futures had plummeted which made it obvious the jobs report was bad. I watched CNBC for 15 minutes straight and I did not hear what the jobs #s were. You know that if those #s had been good I'd have heard them several times in that time-span. ;-)

Bob Pissani's on now scraping the barrel to feed us any good news to be found. haha

Will check back in after open. Looks like a shiney day in Gold and Treasuries. Flight to quality anyone? What will the $ do today I wonder.....

Julie

[54anickel]

18. Awwww, I am blushing. Thanks Julie, and glad you are able to pop

in occasionally. It does tend to get a bit lonesome out here once in a while. I am so glad that UIA is still able to contribute and keep me in line. I do have that tendency to get off track sometimes.
But hey, tinfoil hat moments make life fun!
Miss you all, and look forward to everyone being able to get back to some semblance of normalcy soon.

:grouphug:

[KoKo]

42. Nice to see you Julie, and 54 and Ozy much appreciation for this post

every day. It's my morning treat and I check back through the day to read the many articles which are posted by you all here which I'm convinced will save me from financial ruin.

After the Crash I gave up my CNBC addiction. CNBC also turned into a total "Media Whore" just like the rest of the media after 9/11 and GE turned the screws on any honest financial features or reporting that was left. So, it's been good to check in here where my generally bearish sentiment at least gets an airing, although there's always a nice balance given by the posters here, so I know this isn't a total Bear Forum. The questioning and analysis here, is better than what one would anywhere out there, imho, for these times when all media is so suspect for "pump and dump" features and loyalties to keeping the hype going for the Bush Gang.

Holding on to whatever coins we have left in our wallets and trying to survive through the terrible job decline is hard enough. It's great to have you all here for support. :-)'s & :toast:

[54anickel]

50. Good Morning KoKo, and thank you.

We just try to dig thru some of the news articles and commentaries in an attempt to understand what's going on.

[54anickel]

19. February Job Growth Surprisingly Weak

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040305/economy_jobs_6.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers added a paltry 21,000 workers to their payrolls last month, far fewer than expected, according to a government report on Friday that was likely to weigh on President Bush as he seeks re-election.

In its report, the Labor Department said private-sector employment was unchanged in February, while the government added 21,000 workers.

The report also showed job creation in December and January was weaker than previously thought, adding to the weak tone of the report. The department revised lower its count of jobs gains in January to 97,000 from 112,000 and for December to just 8,000 from 16,000.

snip>
Over the last three months, employment has risen an average of just 42,000 per month, down from the 79,000 average of the prior three months and far short of the 150,000 or so jobs needed each month just to keep pace with growth in the labor force.

[JNelson6563]

21. Job growth provided by the government

The Republican government!! That's downright socialism!! haha! I wonder what Rs will say when that is pointed out to them.

This is a delicious tidbit for us hard-core fans of irony. :toast:

Julie

[54anickel]

25. Someday we'll ALL be working for Homeland Security, keeping tabs

on our neighbors making sure they make no bad comments about the pResident.
Guess I will have to turn myself in. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

26. it is priceless that every single job added for the month of

February was taxpayer funded

In its report, the Labor Department said private-sector employment was unchanged in February, while the government added 21,000 workers.

The "shrink the government" bath-tubbers are so full of shit that their eyes are brown.

How and the ANWAR (yes, I know it's ANWR spin make me :puke:

Between the twin mantras of destroy what is pristine and cut taxes, these spinning vomitoids have lost what little credibility they ever possessed.

[54anickel]

22. Snow: Economy improving

http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/05/news/economy/snow.reut/

HOLLYWOOD, Fla. (Reuters) - Economic activity is gathering steam, but excessive reliance on imported oil poses a threat not only to growth but also to national security, Treasury Secretary John Snow is set to warn Friday.

Government officials who previewed Snow's address to the Maritime Trades Department, which represents U.S. shipping interests, said he was urging that it was time to look again at letting oil companies drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).

snip>
With his election campaign getting into full swing, President Bush is aiming to portray himself as being the most capable of guarding the country against more terror attacks like those of Sept. 11, 2001. On Thursday, the Bush campaign began running television ads using images of the destroyed World Trade Center in New York to emphasize its claim that he was the best leader for troubled times.

Snow's call for more drilling in the Arctic played on a similar theme: "You know that opening up Alaska means good jobs... more reliable energy supplies and a more secure country."

snip>
Snow said that while signs of economic turnaround were increasing, job creation still lagged, and that meant everything possible had to be done to push expansion including ensuring adequate energy supplies.

U.S. oil prices hit their highest since the Iraq war this week, touching $36.68 a barrel. Economic policymakers, however, have tempered concern energy costs will stay high or that they would be a significant drag on the economy if they did so.

"I think that at current levels the U.S. economy, and the expansion, can absorb those increases," Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke said Tuesday. "But obviously a sufficiently large increase in oil prices would slow the growth of the economy."

more....

:puke:

[ze_dscherman]

23. Some more pressure on the economy: Oil prices rise amid Venezuela turmoil

Crude futures prices on Friday reached their highest levels since the run-up to the Iraq war last March as concerns mounted about potential supply disruptions from Venezuela, a key oil exporter.


The country has seen increasing tension over opposition attempts to force a referendum on the rule of president Hugo Chávez.

During electronic trading the IPE Brent crude futures contract for April delivery matched its post-Iraq war peak of $33.40 a barrel, which was touched earlier this week, before retreating to trade at $33.25, a rise of 36 cents. The benchmark crude contract has risen more than $1 in the past two sessions. The contract reached a post-Gulf war high of $34.50 a barrel last March during the lead-up to the Iraq war conflict.

The April Nymex WTI crude futures contract burst through the $37 a barrel level in electronic trading for the first time since March 13 last year, a few days before US-led forces invaded Iraq. The benchmark crude futures contract reached a high of $37.12 a barrel before retreating to $37, a rise of 36 cents.

More: http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381551868&p=1045050946495

On edit: Fits well to the citation in the posting above, in which Snow warns of the pressure of the oil price. How stupid can these people be, kindling another crisis in an oil producing country?

[Chicago Democrat]

24. Hello Market Watchers!

Hello this is Tim.

I'm an investor who doesn't like to pay attention to it all. Its all so very confusing, especially now.


15% High Dividends Stocks
50% Mutual Funds (Fidelity and Merrill) (Various)
35% Bonds and CDs

I recently moved Bonds into Mutual Fund and have done well. The best results were in overseas funds thanks to the dollars decline. All of the flight from the Bonds and banks because of low interest has me concerned that the stock market may be overheated.

Im tempted to invest in more overseas? Could the dollar go down further? Investing in US securities seems like a disaster if the dollar continues to become more worthless, they are just offsetting the equity gains. (?)

Given the disasterous job news and the continuing trade deficit I don't see how the dollars slide can be stopped. More importantly, I don't think Bush has any desire to stop it as it is the only thing helping US exports.

[54anickel]

40. Good Morning Tim,

Sorry, I can't offer help in answering your question. I'm not a broker nor a banker. Normally I think your mix would be considered pretty good and fairly conservative (depending upon your age and what type of Mutual Funds those are). However, these just don't seem like normal times right now. :shrug:

Really can't offer you any advice.

[UpInArms]

41. Hi Tim!

glad to have you join the Market Watch -

Wish we could tell you what will happen, but none of has a functional crystal ball.

We don't give advice, we still leave that to those guys that get money for that skill.

We (or maybe I just speak for myself here) just try to figure out what is happening and why it occurs. How policy meets the highway and affects the daily lives of so many.

Each of us have our own opinions as to what influences the markets and how those markets will be affected - and there are always lively discussions to be had.

Jump in and join the party anytime! :hi:

[UpInArms]

27. Market Numbers at 9:36 EST

Dow 10,529.40 -58.60 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,036.08 -19.03 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 1,149.05 -5.82 (-0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 3.821% -0.208

Dollar

Last trade 88.11 Change -1.03 (-1.16%)

[UpInArms]

28. Update and blather

at 9:56 EST

Dow 10,550.08 -37.92 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,040.79 -14.32 (-0.70%)
S&P 500 1,152.10 -2.77 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 3.820% -0.209

9:40AM: Market heads south in the early action with little or no news to send it higher... Today's headliners - Intel's (INTC 28.94 -0.71) mid-quarter update last night and the February employment report this morning - have both been negatives in that they have fallen short of expectations... The world's largest chip maker narrowed its Q1 (Mar) revenue range from $7.9-8.5 bln to $8.0-8.2 bln (consensus of $8.27 bln), and nonfarm payroll growth in February was a measly 21K (consensus of 125K)...

This event in particular has raised more questions about hiring in the recovering economy, and suggested that economists might have gotten ahead of themselves in forecasting triple- digit gains for the last three months...

9:12AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -7.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.0. Stage remains set for a substantially lower start to the day as the futures indications continue to slide... The sparse 21K increase in Feb nonfarm payrolls (consensus of 125K) has led traders to sell into the week's (slight) gains, along with disappointment that INTC's mid- quarter update last night was not more upbeat.

[54anickel]

29. Place your bets, they'll be back up to the water line in no time. The

blather will explain it as the markets realizing that the bad job numbers mean interest rates will remain unchanged. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

31. I would be remiss in my duties if I failed to show this lovely

upward movement at 10:06 EST

Dow 10,575.92 -12.08 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,046.63 -8.48 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,155.03 +0.16 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 3.825% -0.204

[54anickel]

32. U.S. stocks down, but off lows as rate fears soothed

This is getting old :eyes:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040305/1f2aeae7ab8918f0e3b8c5d5f3cff326_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks shook off early weakness to trade just modestly lower Friday, as a much weaker-than-expected employment report helped soothe fears of an earlier-than-expected rise in interest rates.

The Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased 21,000 in February, about 110,000 less than expected by economists. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6 percent. See Economic Report .

CBS MarketWatch chief economist Irwin Kellner said the jobs data was "disappointing all around," and puts the economic recovery at risk.

He added that if there was a positive, it's that a rate hike by the Federal Reserve was "clearly off the table.".

more...

edit to add weather Ya, that's the ticket (again)

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said that while employment was "no doubt" weak in February, he thinks weather was a "very significant" factor in depressing payrolls.

"In our view, weather is key here," Shepherdson said. "In March, better weather and the end to the California strike should equal job growth of more than 200,000."

[UpInArms]

38. oooohhh! Yes! Let's wait for the numbers in March!

progress is just around the corner, about to be here any moment, next month, tomorrow, in a little while, on the cusp... ad nauseum...

Pardon me while I :puke:

and now I must clean my keyboard :(

[Pale Blue Dot]

30. Question for the marketeers:

Everyday it seems, the market takes a nose dive at the opening bell only to level off by the end of the day. Is there any logical explanation for this, other than my tin foil hat theory of the PPT?

Thanks.

[UpInArms]

34. that is always a possibility

but Frodo feels that looking there is too simplistic and does not believe that there is any market intervention (of if there is, it is a good thing - Frodo, if I have misrepresented your position, please feel free to correct me)

I don't have any way to verify or validate the PPT activities. It could merely be the industrial traders having a go at taking the drop as an opportunity to buy lots and lots of stock for the portfolios that they manage.

The markets do not seem fickle - they seem to only go up - and any naysayers are thusly labeled :tinfoilhat: people.

[54anickel]

36. Yep, lots and lots of stocks and really fast too! From the article I

posted above:

The S&P 500 Index (CBOE:^SPX - News) was unchanged at 1,155, erasing earlier losses of as much as 6 point.

[twilight]

77. yeah where are those PPI #'s ?

Must be bad - now they are juggling the books last I heard.

Something stinks bigtime. I was thinking of putting my IRA into this mess of a market ... now I am leaning heavily against it.

The #'s are all bad. There is no recovery. There is inflation and no jobs. The dollar is collapsing. I find this whole thing frightening.

:dem: :kick:

[UpInArms]

80. from the Bureau of Labor's website

here is the latest posting (dated March 5)

http://www.bls.gov/ppi/delaynotice.htm

As announced on February 17, the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January 2004 has been delayed from the originally scheduled date of February 19, 2004. The length of that delay now means that the release of February data originally scheduled for Friday, March 12, must also be postponed.

The delays have been caused by unexpected difficulties in the conversion of PPI data from the Standard Industrial Classification system to the North American Industry Classification System. These difficulties have taken far longer to resolve than we originally expected.

We will continue to work diligently to resolve the remaining issues holding up the calculation of the PPI. When revised release dates for the January and for the February 2004 Producer Price Indexes have been determined, we plan to announce them at least one day ahead of time on this web page and through news advisories.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics expresses its sincere apologies to those who have experienced any problems as a result of this delay.

Last Modified Date: March 05, 2004

All I can think is that this report must have some horrible mojo going on.

[54anickel]

82. Gee, maybe they've decided the report is immaterial at this point

in time as well as immoral. I don't need no dang spun up report to tell me I'm spending more on everything these days.
PHFFFFT!

[ozymandius]

35. Ain't three years of supply side economics grand!

Let's see: we've seen the fastest expansion in the gap between rich and poor in decades; The wealthiest pay the least federal taxes - ever; Stock prices have risen (and the corporate bottom lines have gotten fatter) while millions have lost their jobs to cheaper overseas markets; Industrialists are writing environmental and industry oversight policy; Social Security is being looted as workers have been overpaying contributions for twenty years in order to cover the shrinking share of tax revenues collected from the nation's wealthiest citizens.

Like I said: ain't supply side grand?

And remind me why so many people still embrace this Reagan-esque economic policy.

Gotta run Marketeers! Have a wonderful weekend.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

37. Bye Ozy, You have a great weekend as well!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

39. bye Ozy!

Have a great weekend! :hi:

[UpInArms]

43. UPDATE at 10:35 EST

Dow 10,644.51 +56.51 (+0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,066.83 +11.72 (+0.57%)
S&P 500 1,162.96 +8.09 (+0.70%)
10-Yr Bond 3.832% -0.197

Who was that masked man?

blather

10:25AM: The market's recovery effort builds steam as the Dow and Nasdaq cross into positive territory... The consolation that - despite the large miss in February nonfarm payrolls - the Fed will most likely maintain its neutral policy over the next six months and make no change to the 45-year low interest rates (at 1.00%) has propped up stocks... Right now, the financial, transportation, homebuilding, gold, and insurance shares are showing decent gains, and the semiconductor sector has just erased its losses...

Its reversal has boded well for the indices' turnaround, and suggested that they can move higher with this key group's participation...NYSE Adv/Dec 1669/1200, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1103/1592

[54anickel]

45. Dang, ya beat me to it!

[UpInArms]

46. nah, great minds just think alike

:D

terrific simul-cast posts!

[54anickel]

44. Yee-haw, check out this rally at 10:36? My guess at the time may be

off - System having graphic problems so not getting the full chart. Time for a reboot!

Dow 10,634.51 +46.51 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,064.65 +9.54 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,162.09 +7.22 (+0.63%)
30-yr Bond 4.729% -0.152

10:25AM: The market's recovery effort builds steam as the Dow and Nasdaq cross into positive territory... The consolation that - despite the large miss in February nonfarm payrolls - the Fed will most likely maintain its neutral policy over the next six months and make no change to the 45-year low interest rates (at 1.00%) has propped up stocks... Right now, the financial, transportation, homebuilding, gold, and insurance shares are showing decent gains, and the semiconductor sector has just erased its losses...
Its reversal has boded well for the indices' turnaround, and suggested that they can move higher with this key group's participation...NYSE Adv/Dec 1669/1200, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1103/1592

Edit to disclaim the time!

[JNelson6563]

51. 11:21 and PPT off to lunch

Dow 10,572.88 -15.12 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,046.36 -8.75 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,153.22 -1.65 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 3.840% -0.189

Wild party in Treasuries. Whoo-hoo!!

Julie

[54anickel]

52. Hey, what's up (down) with that? n/t

[54anickel]

53. Interesting change in the last 2 blather reports -

11:30AM: The market suddenly dives lower as buyers back out of the market... The Nasdaq was unable to make much headway above its 50-day simple moving average on account of a negative turn in the semiconductor group, and that has reined the indices in at this point... Right now, most of the technology sub-sectors - software, networking, computer services, internet - are deep in the red with no follow-through buying interest to push them higher... Intel (INTC 29.07 -0.58) has moved near its lows of the day and is the worst performing stock on the Dow... SOX -0.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 2081/1001, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1440/1469

11:00AM: Buyers continue to make their way back into the market scene, encouraged by the indices' quick reversal off their opening lows... The Nasdaq is hovering just above its 50-day simple moving average, at 2061, in a move that would add more fuel to the bulls' fire... Strikingly, a similar rally is going on in the bond market this morning... The yield curve has flattened significantly in response to the weaker than expected February employment report... The price on the 10-year note has spiked 45 basis points, which has brought the yield to 3.85%...

The implications for mortgage rates has put the homebuilding and mortgage names at the head of the equity market...NYSE Adv/Dec 2288/708, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1810/1012

[UpInArms]

55. Update and blather

Dow 10,591.33 +3.33 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,050.67 -4.44 (-0.22%)
S&P 500 1,156.97 +2.10 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 3.826% -0.203

12:00PM: The market has tried - at times - to make the best of bad news this morning, but so far, the bears have won out in their desire to take the market lower... Intel (INTC 29.12 -0.53) narrowed its Q1 (Mar) guidance range to $8.0-8.2 bln from $7.9-8.5 bln - below the Reuters Research consensus estimate of $8.27 bln - and the February employment report was a huge disappointment to investors anticipating moderate job growth... Nonfarm payrolls rose just 21K (consensus of 125K) and the January and December figures were both revised lower (to 97K and 8K, respectively)...

The frustration that hiring still remains an uncooperative component of the strengthening economic picture has kept the market from running substantially higher ... However, the 'silver lining' of this scenario was that the Fed would not raise interest rates anytime soon... Tellingly, the federal funds rate went from pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a 25 basis point increase in August, to pricing in a 60% probability of the same interest rate hike in September...

This fact has provided a floor of support to both the equity and treasury markets, the latter of which is on a tear with the yield on the 10-year hitting a 7-month low... Right now, industry participation is fairly mixed, with interest-rate sensitive groups like financial and homebuilding outperforming the market, and tech sectors like semiconductor and software dragging it lower... As a result, the indices at mid-day are split around the unchanged mark...

Those nasty "bears" have the cheerleaders a bit depressed?

[54anickel]

57. Well, they DO have that "silver lining" mentioned. Funny how the

valuation concerns that were all over the blather earlier this week aren't mentioned. Well, except for that round about method of mentioning fed fund rates pricing in.

[UpInArms]

54. interesting article on Dick Grasso

http://www.forbes.com/work/2004/03/05/cx_da_0305topnews.html

Dick Grasso Is Dangerous

excerpt:

Brendan Sullivan, Grasso's lawyer, has already sent John Reed, the NYSE's interim chairman, a letter accusing him and the NYSE, in effect, of hiding behind the SEC's and Eliot Spitzer's skirt. In the letter, Sullivan, famed for representing Col. Oliver North, said that Grasso refused to return any of the $140 million he has already received and that he may seek the $50 million he allegedly left on the table.

"Mr. Grasso has no intention of returning any portion of his compensation to the Exchange. If the Exchange believes it has a valid claim, it should file it, rather than conducting a campaign through the press and intermediaries in an attempt to pressure Mr. Grasso," Sullivan wrote.At this point, Grasso is a very dangerous individual because he has nothing to lose-- except of course the $140 million. He has already lost his job and there is no indication he is about to take another. If SEC or the New York Attorney General does go after him, he could wreak havoc-- much like Oliver North threatened to do--by exposing dirty laundry all over Wall Street.

The subpoenas were sent to Wall Street honchos like Bear Stearns' (nyse: BSC - news - people ) James Cayne, Morgan Stanley's (nyse: MWD - news - people ) Philip Purcell and Lehman Brothers' (nyse: LEH - news - people ) Richard Fuld, as well to ex-Time Warner (nyse: TWX - news - people ) CEO Gerald Levin. Home Depot (nyse: HD - news - people ) Director and key Grasso ally Kenneth Langone, who just sold his seat on the NYSE, will also come under scrutiny as he sat on the NYSE compensation committee. So would Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ) CEO Henry M. Paulson Jr., former boss of current NYSE president John Thain.

Spitzer is also said to be considering a lawsuit against the directors who approved Grasso's deal.

But whether the directors are backing the suit or the defendants in it, Grasso's lawyers would likely seek to question them about the meaning of "excessive" and what they consider proper disclosure of their own pay packages. This would get ugly, and, for that reason, look for Spitzer and the SEC to drop it.

Sullivan has worked this tactic, which is legitimate, before, and with much more at stake. After Oliver North was indicted in March 1988, along with many others, Sullivan succeeded in getting many of the charges dismissed on the grounds that the government would not or could not comply with his discovery demands. He also represented North during his Congressional testimony. After North was found guilty on three counts, mostly involving obstruction of justice, Sullivan successfully appealed on the ground that his trial might have been impermissibly tainted by the use of congressional testimony, for which North had received immunity.

...more...

To compare our NYSE with the Iran-Contra era is quite a picture.

(edited to make sense of my note)

[54anickel]

56. Wow, so many scandals looming, hard to pick what will be the lead for

2004. I'm reminded of that article I posted a while back that was trying to figure that out - there were so many possibilities mentioned.

[54anickel]

58. More of those "Non-fundamentals" for gold.

Sorry, I just couldn't help myself B-)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Ogden/mar052004.html

Over 90% of the discussion and writing on gold is concerned with its role as an alternative currency to paper money and its role as a haven in times of political, economic and social upheaval, as well as insurance against inflation. If we accept this argument, then we should look for gold to appreciate in direct correlation to adversity and recede in price with prosperity.

The last time investment demand exceeded jewelry fabrication demand was in 1981. Over the past 20 to 25 years, there has been a persistent and steady reversal of gold’s economic and social function worldwide. While it is true that gold bullion responds to adversity in the short run, its trend in the long run is a function of widened world prosperity, which in turn leads to an enlarged market for gold jewelry.

Over half of the gold ever mined currently resides in the form of jewelry. As each year passes, this percentage increases.

We need to differentiate between the two basic forms of jewelry demand:

(1) Investment grade jewelry
(2) Fashion jewelry

In the Middle and Far East, where financial and banking are not fully developed or universally available, gold takes the form of high carat, heavy jewelry. Sold at a low markup it can easily be turned into bullion.

In the more affluent Western countries, it is more often low carat, high design and high margin fashion jewelry. Demand for this type of jewelry is more income related than it is price sensitive.

Demand for “fashion jewelry” is highly sensitive to the business economic cycle, increasing as the economy expands and decreasing as it declines.

Overall jewelry demand dwarfs retail investment by a factor of 8 to 1. The majority of scrap bullion sold comes from jewelry. Scrap sales increase as the bullion price rises or when economic adversity sets in.

snip>
Most of the increase in demand for gold comes from extremely price sensitive markets, such as the Middle East and the Indian Sub Continent. The typical investor there, unlike his counterpart in the West, is far more rational and invests for the long haul. They tend to buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high, which is the reverse of many Western short-term momentum traders.

As developing countries prosper and urbanize, they tend to switch towards Western style fashion jewelry. In rural India, it is regarded as the property of women; a haven against divorce or widowhood. Two-thirds of Indian gold is held in rural India.

more...

[54anickel]

59. 12:48 numbers and blather

Dow 10,582.23 -5.77 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,049.37 -5.74 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,156.77 +1.90 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 3.827% -0.202

12:30PM: Indices hold tight and maintain their trading pattern around the flat line... The breadth figures reflect the indecision of buyers with advancers and decliners mixed at the NYSE and Nasdaq...

One investment vehicle that has suffered as a result of speculation that the Fed won't tighten in August is the dollar... The greenback has posted its largest drop against the euro in six weeks, ending its recent strengthening move...

This has boosted the performance of gold, which is up $6.60 at $399.80/oz, and made the gold issues the best performing group in the stock market...NYSE Adv/Dec 2105/1086, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1426/1562

[54anickel]

60. European Bonds Surge After U.S. Adds Fewer-Than-Expected Jobs

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=as8kl5_Q1oHI&refer=europe

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- European government bonds surged in London, pushing the yield on the 10-year German bund to its lowest since July, after a government report showed the U.S. added fewer than expected jobs last month.

The 4 1/4 percent German note due in April 2014 rose 0.9, or 9 euros per 1,000 euro ($1,221) face amount, to 102.2 in London at 2:09 p.m., according to UBS AG. Its yield fell 10 basis points, or 1 percentage point, to 3.98 percent, its lowest since July 15.

snip>
``This is not going to help growth or inflation become stronger in the euro zone,'' said Padhraic Garvey, head of investment grade strategy in Amsterdam at ING Bank, a unit of Europe's fifth-largest financial-services company. ``This will put the European Central Bank under more pressure to cut rates. It's bullish for bonds.''

The ECB yesterday decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at 2 percent, the lowest for any of the dozen nations that share the common currency since at least 1946 and twice the rate charged by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The bank has kept its lending rate at this level since June.

more...

[54anickel]

61. Warren Buffett in the news

http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/04/pf/buffett_preview/

snip>
The latest edition of the missive will be published this weekend on the Web site of Berkshire Hathaway, the holding company Buffett controls. The letter will be equal parts folksy charm, hard-headed number crunching, and economic punditry.

Expect him to address topics like the federal budget deficit and its effect on the financial markets. He may also talk about the Bush administration's tax policies -- he's prominently opposed to them, especially their treatment of dividends -- and the weakened dollar.

He will almost surely say that stocks in general are overvalued, because, well, value guru Warren Buffett usually thinks this is the case. He said so last year, then Wall Street turned in a banner performance anyway.

No fan of derivatives
Many of Buffett's macroeconomic warnings over the years have prompted public debate but not much more.

Last year, he sounded an alarm on corporate governance. "As stock prices went up, the behavioral norms of managers went down," he wrote. "CEOs who traveled the high road did not encounter heavy traffic."

In most boardrooms, "collegiality trumped independence," Buffett wrote. He acknowledged that even when he was a director, challenging a CEO "would be like belching at the dinner table."

more...

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2004/commentary040304sh.htm

Buffett Sells. Should You?

Warren Buffett is clearly not finding many opportunities to invest the U.S. stock market today. Despite the fact that he has $27 billion of cash sitting idle, concerns about valuation are driving him to sell some stocks and increase that pile of cash. In doing so, he is sending a strong, clear message not only about the specific stocks he is selling, but also about the U.S. equity market in general. Individual investors should be listening closely.

snip>
As of Dec. 31, Berkshire and its subsidiaries held stakes in 30 companies with a total market value of $34.9 billion. As Buffett has often written in his annual reports, he believes strongly in a concentrated portfolio of stocks where the holdings are rigorously analyzed -- or, as he has characterized it, "putting all your eggs in one basket and watching that basket closely." Given his extraordinary track record, Foolish investors should be paying close attention to any changes in his portfolio.

Foolish vs. foolish
Berkshire Hathaway rarely sells stock. Buffett articulated his point of view about selling in his 1985 letter to shareholders: "We do not sell holdings just because they have appreciated or because we have held them for a long time. (Of Wall Street maxims, the most foolish may be 'you can't go broke taking a profit.')."

Buffett has repeatedly stated that he sells stocks for only one of two reasons: The market judges a business to be more valuable than the underlying facts indicate it is to him, or because he and his team require funds for "still more undervalued investments or ones believe understand better." Given that they are currently sitting on $27 billion in cash, the latter reason is not likely to apply today. Berkshire is selling stocks today because Buffett and his team believe that the current valuations are unsustainably high for those securities.

more...

[54anickel]

62. US Treasuries surge, a rate cut in all but name

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/05/rtr1287990.html

NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices flew higher on Friday, shoving benchmark yields to eight-month lows as a shockingly weak report on U.S. payrolls was seen delaying a Federal Reserve rate hike for months, if not all year.

Short-term yields plunged 15 basis points on the news, a move more normally associated with a cut in official interest rates, while a dive in longer-dated yields looked certain to drag mortgage rates sharply lower.

"The figures say the clock hasn't even started on a Fed tightening," said James Glassman, senior economist at J.P. Morgan. He said the economy would have to add 2 million jobs before a rate rise would be thinkable.

snip>
The impact was all the greater since Fed officials have been playing up the prospect for imminent jobs growth while warning that interest rates would have to rise at some point. That had led to speculation it might move to hike in the summer before the November presidential election gets in the way.

"I don't think I've ever seen people so shocked by a figure -- the whole dealing room was just staring at the screens in silence for minutes after the release," said J.P. Marra, managing director of government bond trading at Lehman Brothers.

When traders got their voices back it was to holler: "Buy." The benchmark 10-year note <US10YT=RR> leapt 1-15/32 in price, driving yields to 3.84 percent from 4.02 percent on Thursday.

snip>
Five-year notes <US5YT=RR> jumped 27/32, taking their yields down 2.84 percent from 2.99 percent on Thursday and again hitting eight-month lows.

"The old trading ranges have been shattered and we're in a whole new world," said Lehman's Marra. "We're getting some profit-taking now, but 2.90 percent looks like a decent ceiling for the five-year going forward," he added.

[54anickel]

63. Fed seen on hold for months as jobs upset sinks in

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=4507854

NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - Financial markets dramatically pushed back their expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase until after the November U.S. presidential election after another stunningly weak payrolls report on Friday.

Wall Street economists who had been predicting a move in official rates this summer conceded that now looks less likely, since a persistent dearth of new jobs will make it hard for the central bank to justify removing some of the support that low interest rates give to the economy.

"The message to the Fed in this unambiguously ugly report is clear enough -- there's no way to justify rate hikes in such a weak jobs climate," said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial.

snip>
TESTING PATIENCE ON JOBS

The disappointment was all the more acute because the recent surge in economic growth should be producing jobs as well, but companies seem to be squeezing their existing workers instead of hiring.

In previous recoveries, job growth of around 200,000 per month was the norm.

For months, economists have been predicting a big jump in jobs growth that will prove the U.S. economy is finally on a sure footing and set the scene for an eventual hike in rates.

For months, they have been wrong.

"Financial markets have been waiting for the 'break-out' month for payrolls since last August," noted Ian Morris, chief economist at HSBC.

The concern is that if the labor market doesn't show solid growth, the recent burst in economic activity could falter, as it did in 2002.

"If payrolls are still weak when the consumer tax refunds are behind us (in late May/June), then the economy could be in real trouble," Morris said.

more....

[54anickel]

69. Large Deficits May Pressure Market Rates Up (Not so fast there!)

http://www.quicken.com/investments/news_center/story/?story=NewsStory/dowJones/20040305/ON200403051331000637.var&column=P0DEC

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto said Friday it's too soon to say when it will be time to tighten central bank monetary policy.

"I can't tell you when interest rates are going to rise," Pianalto said. But, she added, "I know that this is a difficult time we are facing," and the February jobs data highlights "this change we are going through."

snip>
In other comments, the Cleveland Fed bank president said that while high government budget deficits may eventually push market rates higher, the Fed remains committed to controlling inflation expecations.

Current and expected fiscal deficits "could present a problem" given that "it is the general thinking that large budget deficits will drive up interest rates, " Pianalto said in response to audience questions after a speech before the City Club Forum in Cleveland.

snip>
Pianalto also warned that protectionist trade measures are not the answer to what ails the economy on the trade front. She also said that recent comments before Congress by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that cutting Social security benefits is one way to reign in budget deficts were the chairman's own personal views.

[UpInArms]

70. distancing the Fed from the Meanspin?

She also said that recent comments before Congress by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that cutting Social security benefits is one way to reign in budget deficts were the chairman's own personal views.

[54anickel]

72. So it seems. Can't say I blame her on that one. n/t

[54anickel]

71. BoJ was busy again today - 20 billion

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aL2vg.uImrIw&refer=home

snip>
``The first reaction out of most people was to scratch their eyes in disbelief,'' said Jeremy Fand, senior proprietary currency trader at WestLB AG in New York. ``Every signal I have tells me the dollar is to be sold.''

Against the euro, the U.S. currency weakened to $1.2379 at 2:41 p.m. in New York, losing almost two cents from $1.2203 late yesterday, according to EBS prices. It is the dollar's biggest drop since Jan. 27. Still, the dollar is 0.9 percent higher versus the euro this week, for a third week of gains.

The dollar took a different path against the yen, surging to 112.15 yen, the highest since September, as the Bank of Japan sold yen for dollars, said a trader whose bank deals with the BOJ. There is speculation the BOJ may have bought $20 billion today, potentially a record amount, said Enrico Caruso, chief trader at currency hedge fund Tempest Asset Management in Irvine, California.

snip>
The yen and South Korean won were the only two of 16 major currencies to weaken against the dollar today as the Bank of Japan sold its currency.

``The talk is it's over $20 billion'' in dollars that the BOJ has bought today, said Caruso at Tempest. ``They're going for the jugular here.''

The yen has fallen about 6.6 percent since trading at a 41- month high of 105.17 on Feb. 11. It fell yesterday even after a Ministry of Finance report showed Japanese companies were optimistic for a second quarter between January and March.

Going for 115 Yen

``Japanese authorities would be pleased to see the yen above 115,'' said Monica Fan, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London. ``They've got no intention of letting up on their intervention.''

more...

[UpInArms]

73. so how long do you think

that the nascent recovery in Japan can prop up the faltering (nice word, isn't it?) recovery in the US?

[54anickel]

75. I dunno, the just got another 40 TRILLION yen approved -

Guess it will depend how long that can last.

This is really gonna hurt Europe, sometimes I think that's what Shrub is really up to. He does not like the idea that OPEC, Russia and Venezula consider the Euro an alternative reserve currency.

from the article:

The lower house of Japan's parliament today approved a government request for 40 trillion yen in extra funds to help weaken the yen in the fiscal year beginning April 1. The move comes after parliament last month endorsed a 21 trillion yen increase in the limit on currency sales this fiscal year.

[UpInArms]

64. Update and blather

Dow 10,604.29 +16.29 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,052.00 -3.11 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,157.73 +2.86 (+0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 3.823% -0.206

1:30PM: Blue chip averages continue to lead the Nasdaq as the technology sector remains sluggish... Semiconductor and semiconductor equipment have been notable laggards on account of Intel's (INTC 28.99 -0.66) narrowed Q1 (Mar) revenue guidance last night... Despite this weakness, the Nasdaq is still poised to finish the week with gains, which would mark its first winning week after six weeks of losses... The Dow and S&P 500 are also poised to finish with gains, albeit fairly small ones...

This type of choppy behavior that has been in keeping with Briefing.com's neutral view over the past month, and lent support to the idea that buyers need to be selective in their investment decisions... We continue to favor stocks with low betas in this defensive environment... NYSE Adv/Dec 2174/1040, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1534/1513

1:00PM: Market remains stuck in low gear as it continues to hug the unchanged mark... Most industry groups have turned in lackluster performances, and that has contributed to indices' inertia... One sector that has moved in a decisive manner, however, is retail... The group has benefited from the implications that interest rates will stay at their 45-year lows, and an AG Edwards upgrade to Over-weight from Even-weight... The firm cites sustained strong consumer spending that should be buttressed by a round of federal income tax cuts...

Briefing.com noted after February Same Store Sales yesterday - which were some of the best in years - that the consumer should remain a key force in the economy's recovery... NYSE Adv/Dec 2186/1003, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1500/1522

guess the briefing.com people have a really functional crystal ball and that the markets are going to end UP today!

Bad news is good news! Oh, that's right - the news is only bad if you are needing a job and these guys still have theirs.

[54anickel]

66. HA, first winning week after 6 weeks of losses! They couldn't have

picked a worst time to pump the NASDAQ up.
Hmmmm, any bets that she'll hit the 2061 technical support number for the day as well?

[54anickel]

65. U.S. Treasury chief says jobs data disappointing (Pushing tax cuts)

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=4507057

snip>
Speaking to reporters before addressing a maritime trade group on a short trip to Florida, Snow said government data on Friday showing a weak gain of 21,000 jobs last month showed it was vital to make Bush administration tax cuts permanent.

"The numbers suggest we need to keep the economy growing and reinforce our view that it would be a terrible mistake to raise taxes on American families and American businesses that are working to create jobs," Snow said.

When asked if he would resign if job creation rates do not pick up significantly, Snow said only, "The important thing is that we continue to be focused on what creates jobs. And what creates jobs is growth."



Who was that masked reported anyway? :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

67. Consumer Credit woes

http://www.heraldnet.com/Stories/04/3/4/18279973.cfm

I beg to differ with you, Mr. Greenspan

snip>
Overall, the household sector seems to be in good shape," he said in a recent speech to the Credit Union National Association.

Good shape?

Only if you think the debt-related obesity that consumers are suffering from is just baby fat.

Consider these facts:

* According to the Federal Reserve, last year America's consumer debt topped $2 trillion for the first time.

* Personal bankruptcies for all of 2003 rose to 1.63 million, up 5.6 percent from a year earlier. And, according to bankruptcy researchers Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Warren Tyagi, authors of "The Two-Income Trap," for every family that declares bankruptcy, there are seven more whose debt loads suggest that they ought to.

* The average household credit card debt is $9,200, according to CardWeb.com

* Each year, almost 9 million consumers seek debt counseling.

* The average client seeking help from a credit counseling agency has more than $15,700 in unsecured consumer debt and $30,000 in gross income.

Take a moment to reflect on this last fact. Some people are carrying consumer debt (mostly credit card debt) that is just a little more than half of their gross pay.

So where are folks turning when their good shape goes to pot?

They go looking for help from counseling agencies, many of which have come under scrutiny for deceptive practices, poor advice, excessive fees and abuse of nonprofit status.

more...

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=4507903

Americans struggle with credit card bills - survey
Fri Mar 5, 2004 12:16 PM ET

NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - Americans, facing a weak labor market, are struggling to pay off their credit card bills, according to an industry survey released on Friday.

At the same time, they have no plans to rein in their spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy, the Cambridge Consumer Credit Index survey said.

Thirty-nine percent of the 1,000-plus people surveyed last week said they paid off their monthly balance in full, down from 43 percent a year ago, according to the survey.

snip>
"The haves either don't use their credit cards at all or feel secure about paying off their credit card bills when they arrive," Jordan Goodman, a spokesman for the Cambridge group, said in a statement. "The growing number of have-nots, however, are being forced to borrow to pay for their daily necessities, and are getting deeper into debt."

snip>
The Federal Reserve is set to release January data on U.S. consumer debt at 3 p.m. EST (2000 GMT). Analysts polled by Reuters on average forecast consumer credit, from sources such as credit cards and car loans, grew by $5.9 billion in January after rising $6.6 billion in December.

[54anickel]

68. Bank of England team in India on a familiarisation trip (Vultures circling

the dying US$?)

http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=21&story=35827

A high-level delegation from the Bank of England is in India for the first time.

Paul Fischer, head-treasury, Bank of England, told Business Standard that the team is on a fact-finding mission as India has come up as one of the major emerging markets in recent times.

In a meeting organised by the Forex Dealers’ Association of India, Fischer said that globally interest rates are on an upswing and the Bank of England has decided to raise interest rates as strong signals of economic growth abound. The team will be also visiting Thailand later.

snip>
Some dealers also said that with most of the Asian central banks laden with reserves, the team is also interested to find out the plans and procedures of reserve management with India being a case in point.

In the recent past, many of the central banks have been shuffling part of the reserves from dollars to euro.

Therefore the team is also expected to make a pitch for more investments in pound sterling, said a dealer. In fact, Fischer invited the audience to participate in the ensuing three treasury bond auction in England.

[UpInArms]

74. U.S. consumer credit up $14.3 bln in Jan (YOUCH!!!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38051.6253472222-812701263&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Consumer credit in the United States rose $14.3 billion, or at an 8.6 percent annual pace, in January, to $2.02 trillion, the Federal Reserve said Friday. The rise was much higher than the $5.7 billion predicted by economists polled by CBS MarketWatch and is the fastest rise in eight months. In December, total consumer credit rose a revised $8.3 billion, more than the $6.6 billion increase initially estimated. Nonrevolving debt, such as auto loans, rose $8.9 billion in January, while revolving credit, such as credit cards, rose $5.3 billion.

Wowie Zowie! Them's some hot credit cards!!!

[54anickel]

76. HOLY SH*T! Over twice the expectation! Over 2 TRILLION US$

Oh. my. God!!! :wow: Gotta go have one :smoke:

[KoKo]

78. I wonder if this is due to unemployment rising and folks stretching with

those "checks" the credit card companies keep sending out (which I cut up) but many folks may need to use them just to keep themselves going.

It's hard for me to believe that folks are still out buying clothes and electronics at Walmart in huge numbers. Still, I would think if it's "survival credit debt" it would show up in "same store sales" being way down. I haven't seen anything so far that has shown a steep decline in those numbers.

It's puzzling to me because since most of our GDP is based on Consumer Spending, that it would seem that along about now there would start to be a disconnect if people are using the credit for necessities rather than discretionary purchases.

When it will really hit the fan is when that disconnect occurs. But, somehow I suppose they are still banking on Unemployment not affecting folks Purchasing Power. :eyes: It's all very strange. How long can this all go on?

[54anickel]

81. Those evil "inconvience" checks that they mail out monthly - what a

pain in the butt! Worst part is their use is treated as a cash advance by most of the credit card companies as well.

Yes, according to the article I posted earlier a lot of folks are using the credit cards for necessities now.

2.02 Tr-r-r-r-r-r-illion dollars! Unfriggenbelievable!

[UpInArms]

84. and here's a bit from The Daily Reckoning

(if you needed to feel any worse)

It's true that 'deficits don't matter' - as long as
creditors don't seem to care. A man can run up as much debt
as he wants. It doesn't matter... until it matters. That is,
as long as he is able to go even deeper into debt, it
doesn't matter. It's a bit like a man jumping off a tall
building; it's even exhilarating... right up to the end. But
when creditors want their money back... or refuse to lend
him more money... all of a sudden, he hits the sidewalk, and
the lights go out.


There was a time when America's creditors were America's
savers. Even then, deficits mattered; but they mattered
less, because the feds could rip off our own citizens
easily. All they had to do was to stimulate a little
domestic price inflation... which undermined the value of
their bonds and savings; the lumps should have known better
anyway.


But when Americans stopped saving, the nation had to turn
to foreigners. Now, it takes nearly 80% of the entire
world's savings just to allow Americans to continue living
in the style to which they had become accustomed. The
gollywogs and krauts are probably as dumb as Americans,
especially their central bankers, but they are more mobile.
They can shift their money out of dollars into euros... or
yen... or yuan. When the foreigners decide they've had
enough... when they stop lending and sell off their U.S.
dollar assets - that is when it will matter. U.S.
government benefits will be cut whether Americans like it
or not. Standards of living will fall. Jobs will be lost.
Then, the U.S. economy will go into a long, dark night of
recession, deflation, and financial crisis.


Raise taxes? Well, yes... why wait for the foreigners to
kill the economy when we can do it ourselves? If Americans
have to pay more in taxes, they will have less to spend.
Consumer spending is 70% of the economy. When people begin
to consume less... the consumer economy goes into
reverse... and then comes the splat... and the long, dark
night.


Either way, the lights are going out. Buy candles.

[54anickel]

87. Oh my! Guess I'll head out this weekend to stock up on candles, it

surely does seem that there is now way out of this mess.

[trogdor]

86. Those go in the shredder.

That's what I bought it for.

[54anickel]

88. I always worry about them getting riped off in the mail. It's not like I

would know to be looking for them. Tried several times to get them to stop sending them. No luck, so "hubby" is changing his card to my credit union (They don't do that crap).

[54anickel]

79. 3:14 numbers & WTF BS

Dow 10,596.96 +8.96 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,050.69 -4.42 (-0.22%)
S&P 500 1,156.76 +1.89 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 3.833% -0.196

3:00PM: Little change in the past half hour as equities continue to run in place... Biotech, drug, brokerage, and energy remain the standouts of the day, and have kept the blue chip averages in positive territory... The energy group has been helped by another increase in the price of crude oil, to above $37.50/bbl - levels reminiscent of the Iraq War... Areas that have bucked the trend, however, and prevented the market from running higher have been parts of basic material and technology...NYSE Adv/Dec 2235/1039, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1637/1467

2:30PM: Indices improve their stance as the Nasdaq approaches the unchanged mark... Today's trade has been extremely choppy with no true trend - or reaction - developing from the February jobs report... This action has been in keeping with the pattern this week as the market has tossed and turn with little or no conviction... The market's inability to move noticeably higher for seven weeks now has been a source of concern for the investment community, and suggested to many that now is not the time to open positions...

Briefing.com would agree with that interpretation, with the caveat being that exposure to equities (even in this envionrment) is a must with interest rates low and corporate profit growth strong...NYSE Adv/Dec 2239/1006, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1598/1483

:wtf: Are they saying stay in but don't put in anymore, or are they saying it sucks everywhere, but ya just gotta be in the market. :wtf:

[jab105]

83. I justs got out of a lot of my stocks...

about three weeks ago...there is too much propping it up on shaky stilts for me to be comfortable with this "recovery"...

[KoKo]

89. Yes....one of the linked articles here talked about "Mad Money" meaning

what you invest in on your own outside a 402-K or Roth, Mutual Fund.

I have a "teeny" mad money in some stocks. I understand where you are coming from. Although it depends on the stocks one's in whether one decides that's correct for them to do based on their age, level of tolerance, and financial situation. (just quoting from various "how to books" here.) ;-)

[54anickel]

85. Closing numbers & blather

Dow 10,595.55 +7.55 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,047.63 -7.48 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,156.86 +1.99 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 3.831% -0.198

Dollar stats:
Last trade 88.17 Change -0.97 (-1.09%)

Settle 88.18 Settle Time 15:37

Open 89.20 Previous Close 89.14

High 89.27 Low 87.76


Close: Today's session ended relatively unchanged, which was probably appropriate considering the mixed implications the February employment report had for the economy - and interest rates... On the most obvious level, the paltry rate of job growth - 21K (consensus of 125K) - was disappointing and indicated that the labor market is still the weak link in the economy... At the same time, the wide miss in nonfarm payrolls lent support to the idea that the Fed will maintain its accommodative policy with hiring slack...

The federal funds rate went from signaling a nearly 100% probability of tightening (25 basis points) in August, to just a 60% likelihood in September... These two considerations most likely 'canceled themselves out' in trading today and left the indices with slim gains (or losses)... This was not true for the dollar or treasury market, in which the former plunged and the latter rallied off the impact for interest rates... Sectors that were interest-rate sensitive (homebuilding and financial) in the equity market also found large bids off the employment report, and pulled the blue chip averages into positive territory...

Conversely, the semiconductor sector was a notable laggard in tech - following Intel's (INTC 28.95 -0.70) mid-quarter update in which it tightened guidance to the low-end of the prior range, and that kept the Nasdaq down for much of the day...

Have a great weekend Marketeers :hi: