STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 9 March (#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday March 9, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 320
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 88 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 140 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 352
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 836
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 8, 2004

Dow... 10,529.48 -66.07 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq... 2,008.78 -38.85 (-1.90%)
S&P 500... 1,147.21 -9.66 (-0.84%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.78% -0.06 (-1.44%)
Gold future... 400.90 -0.70 (-0.17%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[revcarol]

1. CA strike lockout affecting profits of Albertson's.

CNBC just now. Profits were down from 54 cents a share to 35 cents a share. $9Billion(?, senior moment) in sales lost.No forward forecast, but commentator thinks they will have to have lots of discounts, promotions to try to get customers back.

Nothing yet on Kroger.

KEEP ON THE PRESSURE, CALIFORNIANS. NEVER go back to them until they are fair to their workers!!

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.11 Change +0.11 (+0.12%)

related articles:

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/103630/content.asp?menu=market&dia=932004

Patient means patient

Quite obviously the statement by Treasurer Snow made the BoJ step out of the way above 112. According to rumours the Japanese central bank removed its firm bids above 112, and market participants finally succeeded in dragging the cross lower. Whether or not BoJ will bury the hatchet on the field of intervention remains, however, to be seen. Fiscal year end in Japan on the 31'st of March may still spur further intervention by the BoJ, though we still expect the last samurai of the currency markets - BoJ - to lower his intervention sabre before long. They are running against the winds of a lower dollar in general, and at some point of time they will have to abide as well like most of the world.

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/102044/content.asp?menu=forecasts&dia=932004

Foreign Exchange Outlook

EVENTS No major US events today. Strategy After Friday's disappointing US jobs number the Euro jumped up an immediate 100 points from 1.2185 to 1.2285 before making it's high around 1.2430. The bad data from the jobs number prompted the aggressive jump in the single currency which was in part fueled by BoJ/MoF intervention to the tune of around 10 to 15 billion USD. This number and the continued BoJ/MoF intervention make the recent USD rally, appear to have been more of a correction rather than a long term trend reversal. To break the long term ascending trend line we need a move to around 1.1760 area, so as one can see we are a great distance from there. Now , after looking at the pair I am still unsure and am again looking at the key 1.2350 level as the pivot point in the Euro.

On the Dollar/Yen front the market has officially surrendered to the Japanese MoF/BoJ. The Ongoing and hugely successful efforts to stem the appreciation of the Yen and protect the nascent recovery of the Japanese economy after almost 11 years of no gowth show no signs of stopping with intervention activity adding up to almost 120 billion USD this year. The coments from both the IMF and Alan Greenspan have shattered the illusion that the Japanese have backed themselves into a corner and cannot continue this policy is an error. These factors lead us to target 115 as the next very spot for a move in USD/JPY.

http://www.boston.com/business/markets/articles/2004/03/08/dollar_mixed_as_japanese_bids_are_pulled/

Dollar mixed as Japanese bids are pulled

NEW YORK -- The dollar was mixed Monday and weak against the yen, after Japanese monetary authorities' bids for dollars through agent banks were apparently pulled.

In late New York trading, the dollar was quoted at 111.26 yen, down from 112.02 yen late Monday.

Earlier, the dollar had reached a fresh five-month high against the yen. But its sudden slide sent it lower against other main rivals and was easily the main talking point in a previously rangebound session almost devoid of other market-moving news.

"They caught us all napping," said Grant Wilson, senior dealer at Mellon Bank in Pittsburgh, referring to the Japanese Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan.

...more...

Looks like the BoJ comes in at night and kicks the dollar back up to or above 88 - the see-sawing motion is really obvious when you look at the charts.

With Japan's yearend being the end of this month, it will be interesting to see if they can keep it up. Next month we will see another meeting with the G7. China is now saying that they are going to leave the yuan alone. Lots of stuff in the mix in between it all.

Perhaps Coventina could do a reading for it?

Have a Great Day, Marketeers!

[54anickel]

6. Pulled their bid, interesting move. WTF is the hidden message in

Snow's comment?

Snow said allowing market forces to work unfettered allows currency values to send proper price signals that encourage optimal investment decisions.

Certainly it would not mean investment decisions in the US$, would it? Are they trying to push more investment into the Euro to force the hand of the ECB to drop rates? A stealth, market force Plaza Accord II? Start with the ECB, then next Canada or Australia, lower rates around the globe one strong currency at a time? :shrug:

[ozymandius]

3. SPECIAL EDITION WRAPUP - "Open the Checkbook - Buy the Ounces"

Fundamental Review
by Jim Puplava

The bull market in gold and silver has barely begun. It is still in its infancy as gold and silver move into their rightful role as real money. Unlike the last bull market of the 1970s where gold and silver were plentiful, this bull market is being driven by scarcity and the debasement of currencies around the globe.

<cut>

Factor 1: Trade Deficit

The price of gold rose from its Bretton Wood price of $35 an ounce to $850. Gold and silver, which had been regulated and suppressed, rose like a Phoenix from the ashes assuming its historical role as money. The 1970s was a period of an expanding money supply, escalating government budget deficits and dollar debasement. Over three decades later we now find ourselves in the same predicament. However, the fundamentals of the gold and silver markets are far more favorable today for three specific reasons. In addition to an expanding money supply, we now must add America’s monstrous trade deficits which are putting vast amounts of dollars into foreign hands.

Today’s Markets

Markets were up overseas and lower here in the U.S. on Monday. The Dow closed at its lowest price in a month led lower by a fall in the prices of Intel, Kodak, and GE. The NASDAQ got hammered losing almost 2% on the session. There just aren’t a lot of catalysts right now and share prices are steeply overvalued. The economy is starting to soften again as it looks like the U.S. dollar remains vulnerable. The only thing holding up the dollar is the central banks of Japan and China. Outside these large buyers of dollars there is nothing fundamentally holding up the greenback but fiat air. While the share price of almost everything was in the red today, there were a few exceptions in silver shares and oil.


<cut>
Technical Review
by Eric King

I have stated that I liken the coming consolidation phase in the gold and silver market to that of the networking sector in the 1990s and I coined the term for the future consolidation as the "PAC-MAN" phase. Higher share prices for major mining companies such as Newmont Mining coupled with declining production is signaling that the consolidation phase which I have previously written about is at hand. As the share prices of networking companies vaulted higher they began to use their stock as "currency" in order to make acquisitions and offset the fact that their acquisition targets had also gained significantly in market value. The culmination of this paper "currency" acquisition frenzy, or as I like to call it "PAC-MAN" phase, ended with Cisco purchasing Cerent Corp. for 6.9 BILLION dollars in an all stock transaction late August of 1999. At the time, Cerent incredibly only had $9.9 million of sales and had lost $29.3 million in the first half of its fiscal year!!! Nortel had already purchased Bay Networks for $9 billion and Lucent had purchased Ascend Communications for $20 billion in all stock transactions. The main thing to consider here is that the companies which were making significant acquisitions during that time period watched their share prices climb to extraordinary levels while competitors were left in the dust. It was during this time that the "PAC-MEN" ruled.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[KoKo]

36. Message Moved.

[54anickel]

39. Ha! That's great - shows real conviction doesn't it? Hows that

mamma.com stock doing today anyway? Can't believe the price action on that baby lately. :eyes:

[54anickel]

42. Oh look, Mamma.com made it to "Stupid Investment of the week"!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BC5F2D6A2%2DD396%2D4209%2DB242%2D28B3990651F9%7D

[54anickel]

4. Those Magic Unemployment Numbers

This is a pretty decent article explaining the slow job growth numbers. It does make sense and lends some credence to what the talking heads have been saying, but in a much less mean spirited way so that it's a bit easier to follow and digest.

It's a bit long, but interesting. Here are a few snips to get the jist of the article, but snips can't do it justice.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/mauldin030804.html

snip>
"Outsourcing? Offshore manufacturing? On the surface, it seems to be the culprit. It makes for good copy, as it is easy to see a manufacturing plant closing in Wisconsin and opening in Shanghai. But it is not that simple. If we look at the numbers, I think we can find another perpetrator. There was a 17% rise in worker productivity over the same periods noted above, with just a 3% drop in production. We are producing roughly the same amount of 'stuff' with a lot fewer workers. We produce almost twice as much as we did just 24 years ago."

But it is more than that. There are longer term structural changes at work and a shift in the nature of business investment, which we will look at. Plus, I think we can offer a few reasons why consumer confidence is going down, even as US household wealth hit a record high this last month. This has important implications for the economy and public policy and ultimately for our investment portfolios.

snip>
No great conspiracy here, but the unemployment numbers are developed in such a way that unemployment is understated. If there was some conspiracy, we would not be able to look at the detailed way in which the numbers are developed. The fact that most commentators do not look beyond the headline number is not a conspiracy. It is laziness. Big difference.

snip>
Many economists are looking at historical charts of recoveries and predict that any day now we will see employment rise substantially. That is because in past recoveries, by 18 months after the end of the recession the employment numbers were soaring. Even in 1991, which was the first jobless recovery, the job growth started later than the typical recession cycle, but eventually took off.

To get a clue as to what's so different now, let's go to a study from the New York Federal Reserve entitled "Has Structural Change Contributed to a Jobless Recovery?" by Erica L. Groshen and Simon Potter. I am going to pull several paragraphs directly from the paper, rather than summarizing, as they do a very clear job for economists in explaining their research. (www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci9-8.html)

snip>
"Invoking the works of David Ricardo, there are two factors of production capital and labor, and the cost of capital as measured by the equipment & software price deflator has hit a 25-year low and in the past eight quarters is roughly down 2%. Over this 2-year span, the employment cost index has risen by almost 8%. Employment costs are not being driven down by the wage rate, which is decelerating, but rather by the acceleration in benefit costs. Benefits, largely healthcare and workers' compensation, now account for over a third of employment expense and is running near their fastest rate in 13 years. The challenge for the household sector is that wages are discretionary income while benefits are targeted.

"While everyone is looking for the answers to this lackluster job market cycle, businesses are actually far from stingy. They are focused on the input that is increasing less costly in the production process, with a focus towards upgrading their tech infrastructure. In fact, real business spending on tech capital expenditures has risen in 7 of the past 8 quarters and at an average annual rate of better than 12%. At the same time, more than 2 million payrolls have been shed and even the household survey shows job creation basically in line with the sluggish upturn in the early 1990s.

"The net effect has been to boost productivity sharply, which is running at a 5.3% year-on-year rate, almost double the pace of two years ago. At the same time, slack in the labor market has helped companies keep a lid on wage growth and as a result we have unit labor costs running at a -2.3% y/y rate. Unit labor costs have the most powerful statistically significant correlation with core consumer inflation, and are a key reason why the Fed can remain accommodative and the primary reason why corporate profit margins have remained wide even in the face of rising raw material prices."

more...

[54anickel]

5. Interesting thoughts on coming deflation -

It's a bit gold-buggy, but an interesting take.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/taylor030804.html

In this election year we are hearing rising cries about imposing barriers against imported goods and against corporations that outsource work and in the process lay off high-priced American workers. But a less-recognized form of protectionism comes in the form of currency devaluations. Not since the 1930s have we seen this kind of cheating by country after country in an effort to gain an unfair advantage over other countries in the international trade arena. Underlying this are the same dynamics as were caused during the 1930s, albeit on a much smaller scale. The world is faced with excessive supplies of a host of goods and services, which are pushing profit margins down. These oversupplies were caused by the excessive creation of money out of thin air by fiat currency regimes of every nation, especially the U.S., and the dollarization of the global economy.

And, in my view, the end result of all this will be a similar or perhaps a greater deflationary depression than we suffered through in the 1930s. I believe this to be true because the raw material of fiat money is debt, and debt is deflationary. The Fed's Bernanke can talk big about dropping money from helicopters, but when he does that, he cannot get away from the fact that ours is a double-entry fiat money bookkeeping system and that the paper he drops from helicopters, unlike gold mined from the ground, has ZERO INTRINSIC VALUE! And so as the debt, which is growing much, much faster than GDP, finally becomes unserviceable, there will be a mad scramble for dollars.

As Richard Russell points out, the world is very, very short on the dollar. If you are in debt and own no cash, you have a major dollar-short position. As the true reality of our economy painted by Mr. Richebacher comes into focus, there will be at some point a scramble for dollars as declining incomes will necessitate the sale of nonessential items in order to get dollars from which to meet life's daily requirements. Thus, as Dave Morgan pointed out in my March interview with him, people will be faced with tough decisions about whether to pay their health insurance or buy groceries. The unwinding of this extremely high leveraged economy is what the debt repudiation process that Ian Gordon describes is all about. The liquidation of nonessential assets to purchase essential assets will result in an enormous drop in the prices of all kinds of goods and services. When that happens, cash and/or gold will be king. Unlike the 1930s, cash which is no longer backed by gold may not be king, because as a liability money, it may not be accepted in the markets as a medium of exchange. Gold and very possibly silver, however, which are asset money, are likely to evolve as acceptable mediums of exchange when confidence is lost in paper money.

What are the most important ways for you to prepare for the upcoming economic trials and tribulations? (1) Stay out of debt, (2) hold some cash in the form of currency notes (paper dollars), and (3) own gold and silver in the form of coins as well as gold and silver equities. Holding cash in the form of dollars when they pay virtually no interest does seem painful, but not nearly as painful as holding stocks when the next phase of the bear market continues and holding non-corporate bonds when they default.

[Nederland]

63. Fiat Money

...is immune to deflation.

[54anickel]

69. Hi Nederland. That would seem to tie into Ben Bernanke's thought

on the issue. What are your thoughts on the idea and the inflation vs deflation debate?

[Nederland]

77. My Thoughts

Fiat money and metal backed money are two different solutions to the same problem: how to create a stable money supply.

Metal backed money is nice because it is immune to inflation. Its impossible for money that is backed by a relatively fixed supply of a material to lose much of its value. While the US was on the gold standard, the only time you saw real inflation was when a large discovery of gold flooded the market and caused a drop in its value. On the other hand, metal backed money frequently suffered from deflation. While on the gold standard, the US was basically counting on the country's supply of gold to grow as fast as the economy. When it didn't, which happened fairly often, you'd see periods of severe deflation.

Fiat money has the opposite problem. Any currency has value only because it is scarce. With metal backed currency, that scarcity is real--there is in fact only so much gold/silver in the world. With fiat currency, the scarcity is artifical--it depends completely on a government's restraint in printing it. When a government loses that restraint (as 3rd world governments frequently do...), and print too much money, its currency loses its value, resulting in inflation.

Therefore, the idea that a fiat based monetary system could become deflationary is simply silly. If prices start to fall, all the government needs to do is start printing money hand over fist until the value of the currency starts falling.

[54anickel]

82. Thanks Nederland. I have one concern on that theory which is, what

if there is no longer confidence in that fiat money and no one will buy your debt? If the US tries to continue to print money like crazy, how long before no one accepts it as payment? Sure, we may get by domestically, using a wheel barrow full of dollars to buy a loaf of bread, but what about the rest of the world? And what would that do seeing the US$ is now the world's reserve currency?

This whole deflation vs inflation thing is hard to grasp. Some speculate that Greenspin just uses the threat of deflation to keep money flowing. In the housing market, as more and more people default or sell things to get money to buy necessities, wouldn't that tend to pull prices down as well? :shrug:

I remember reading a speech by Bernanke posted here a while back that basically stated they don't really know how to fight deflation as the US has never incurred the problem before. Sometimes I think we're flying without a compass. I also think that the US is more than a bit concerned with certain parts of the world considering the Euro as a secondary or alternative reserve.

[Nederland]

111. Answer

I have one concern on that theory which is, what if there is no longer confidence in that fiat money and no one will buy your debt?

Whenever people lose confidence in fiat money its value will decrease, i.e., you'll get massive inflation.

[UpInArms]

7. market is open - numbers at 9:39 EST

Dow 10,495.49 -33.99 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,003.06 -5.72 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,143.76 -3.44 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 3.779% +0.003

shall we don our :tinfoilhat: as the Dow is going below 10,500 and the NASDAQ is approaching 2,000?

Let's see if the downward movement accelerates or it it reverses...

[KoKo]

9. From what I've read if Nasdaq breaks 2000..... look out below?

I believe it's a technical benchmark..anyone have an article archived on this? I think it was Goldberg from "Financial" Sense back in January?

Is this a buying opportunity or the start of a retracement back to 1,600? :eyes:

[ozymandius]

12. The numbers tend to be psychological barriers.

The bar of "acceptability" is constantly moved to accommodate the new averages. Suffice to say - I agree that we could hear the call for "lookout below" if the Nasdaq breaks this barrier. As for retracement: Buffett has been in the news quite a bit in the past week. His central message conveys overall weakness in corporate strength and inability to justify these stock averages. To note: Buffett does not like tech stocks.

[54anickel]

14. Here's the last technical break points from Iossif

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/2004/0224.html

[KoKo]

24. Thanks 54, I think this is one of the more recent articles I was looking

for. It will be interesting to see how today goes keeping Iossif's article close by. :-)'s

[54anickel]

11. Let me check for geo-magnetic storms real quick first - SNARF!!!

[ze_dscherman]

29. Current space weather conditions

http://www.spaceweather.com

"A solar wind stream is flowing toward Earth from a coronal hole on the sun, and auroras could appear when the stream arrives on March 9th or 10th. " Also, a huge sunspot appeared.

I check these quite regularly, ever since I saw my first aurora - quite a rare appearance in Germany.

On edit: Some more fun. Could we work this into a new I Ching?

[54anickel]

49. He-heh, thanks for sharing. Watching for these doesn't seem anymore

far fetched than the what the talking heads, Greenspin and Snow spew out these days. :evilgrin:

I have gotten to see some magnificent aurora's in my lifetime here in WI. Last fabulous one was about 10 years ago, I'd guess. It was the most colorful and there were some very thin clouds swirling that night. It was breath-taking, like the heavens themselves were going to open up. We have a lot more "light pollution" now, even in this tiny little suburb as the new developments within the village limits require a faux gaslight at the end of each driveway.
:puke:

[ozymandius]

8. 9:51 numbers and blather

Dow 10,506.07 -23.41 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,009.50 +0.72 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,145.03 -2.17 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 3.766% -0.010


Stocks Open Lower
11 minutes ago

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks opened lower on Tuesday, following losses in the previous session, as investors looked for early indications on corporate profits and pondered whether stocks have become too expensive after a year-long rally.

tiny blurb

[ozymandius]

10. Treasuries Consolidate After Huge Rally

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Treasuries were a shade lower on Tuesday as profit-taking set in after two sessions of large gains and the market prepared for sales of new U.S. government debt later in the week.

Benchmark 10-year yields had plunged 26 basis points in just two days, the biggest such fall since 1995 and a move more normally associated with a cut in official interest rates.

<cut>
"Barring a heavy fall in equities in coming days, we would expect 10's to resist against the 3.75 percent level, especially if the retail sales data continues to point to a healthy consumer later this week," said Richard Gilhooly, fixed-income market strategist at BNP Paribas.

<cut>
There are the usual hopes that Asian central banks will be active in the auction and there is no doubt the Bank of Japan has a lot of dollars to invest having intervened massively in recent days to restrain the yen.

story

[ozymandius]

13. not much bounce at 10am

10:08
Dow 10,518.96 -10.52 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,009.85 +1.07 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,145.45 -1.75 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 3.770% -0.006

U.S. stocks mixed in early trading

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks were mixed in early trading Tuesday, with technology shares up slightly after a rosy outlook from Texas Instruments.

Declining stocks outpaced gainers by about 5 to 4 on the New York Stock Exchange, while winners slightly outpaced losers on the Nasdaq.

more...

[ozymandius]

15. Consumer Confidence Falls Again in March

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Confidence in the U.S. economy slipped again in March after yet another disappointing jobs report, a survey showed on Tuesday.

Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence said their economic optimism index fell to 54.5 in March from 56.5 in February and a 22-month peak of 60.6 in January. A reading above 50 indicates optimism.

<cut>
"There's no denying that the bad news on jobs is depressing public optimism," said Terry Jones, associate editor of Investor's Business Daily.

story

[54anickel]

16. Still plenty of bullish sentiment out there, in spite of non-confirmation

in the transports. Amazing, isn't it.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/russell031004.html

March 8, 2004 -- US consumers continue to buy "like there's no tomorrow." According to last Friday's Fed report, consumer credit outstanding rose by a larger than expected $14.2 billion in January to a seasonally adjusted $2.016 trillion. Wall Street expected a $5.9 billion gain. At the same time, "investors" in January bought just over $40 billion in mutual funds, one of the biggest buying months in recent history.

Mark Faber notes that according to a Yale School of Management poll, 95% of individuals and close to 92% of financial institutions believe US stocks will be higher 12 months from now. People are bullish about the stock market.

The percentage of cash held by mutual funds has dropped to an historic low of 4.3%. Funds are extremely bullish regarding the stock market, at least with other people's money.

Advisors have remained bullish for 44 consecutive weeks. Bullishness is now rampant with Investor's Business Daily's poll of investment advisors showing the bullish percentage now at 59.6% while the bearish percentage is at 18.8%. The bullish percentage of advisors has prevailed for months on end.

In the face of all this bullishness, stocks continue to be drastically overvalued. And despite 45-year lows in short interest rates and the greatest spate of liquidity ever seen, none of the major stock averages, the Dow, the S&P, the Nasdaq or the Wilshire, has been able to rise to new highs. Eighteen months have passed since the bear market lows of September 2002, which is a long time for a bear market rally to remain in force.

Meanwhile, the "conventional wisdom" holds that if there's to be any trouble ahead, that trouble will be held off until "after the elections." Why? How? "Easy, the Fed won't let it happen."

But now we see important divergence in the stock averages. On January 22, the D-J Transportation recorded a closing high of 3080.32. Two trading days later on January 26, the Dow rose to a high of 10702.51. Following that high, both Averages turned down. On the rally that followed, the Industrial Average advanced to a new high of 10737.70 on February 11. The Transports failed by a wide margin to confirm.

In fact, in the face of continuing strength in the Industrials, the Transports have now formed a series of declining peaks.

January 22 -- Transports closed at 3080.32.

February 11 -- Transports closed at 2951.92.

March 1 -- Transports closed at 2916.61.

This is continuing divergence, and a very negative sign for the market. So while investors appear highly bullish and the retail public continues to buy heavily into the market -- the Averages are waving a "warning flag,"

more...

[ozymandius]

17. Are we becoming "fatalistic" as a society?

Is there an overall willingness to ignore the perils of overspending and racking up debt on double-digit credit card interest rates? The Fed gives us little incentive to save with historically low interest rates that reward frugality not one whit.

[54anickel]

21. Check out the article in post 19 - He-heh!!!!

[ozymandius]

18. U.S, Stocks Lower, Value Questioned

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are trading lower on Tuesday, following losses in the previous session, as investors looked for impetus after a year-long rally that many say has left stocks too expensive.

After several weeks of aimless movement, the Dow Jones industrials (^DJI - News) and technology-focused Nasdaq Composite (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News), are now sitting at levels they hit around the turn of the new year.

"The big run-up in tech last year has not persisted into this year, because of the high valuations," said John Davidson, president of Partner Re Asset Management Corp. Davidson says he is looking to Thursday's initial jobless claims numbers for a firmer read on the economy and the likelihood of stocks regaining their upward thrust.

<cut>
Two reports on the economy also failed to spur markets. The Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index in February rose slightly from January, while confidence in the U.S. economy slipped again in March, a survey showed on Tuesday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040309/markets_stocks_8.html

[54anickel]

19. We have reached utopia! We will never have to work again! I remember

making the comment recently, in jest of course. "Kidding on the square?" :evilgrin:

Kalian had posted this article in the Economic Forum. All I can say is amazing, does Greenspin truly think this way?

:wow:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig3/blumen4.html

snip>
"Using the most modern econometric techniques, we can project where the mortgage payments of all home owner reaches 100% of national wage income. Basically what we do is draw a graph of the percentage over time, lay a ruler over it, and draw a straight line. The point where the line crosses 100% is our forecast," he stated.

Some have charged that this type of forecasting is devoid of any economic reasoning, and even that it violates common sense. How, for example, could mortgage payments reach or exceed 100% of income?

The mainstream economist responded to these charges. "Home owners can simply extract equity from their home by refinancing and use the cash they take out to pay the difference between their income and their mortgage." Home owners extracted $491 billion of equity from their homes last year according to the Wall Street Journal. "Home owners are already using home equity from refinancing to meet ongoing monthly expenses," he continued, "It is a small step forward to start using these funds for the mortgage itself."

He continued, "Those worry-mongers who are always complaining about debt are laboring under the quaint notion that debt is supposed to be repaid. The purpose of going into debt is so that you can acquire more debt in the future. Governments have known this for a long time, but in a democracy, why shouldn’t ordinary people be able to take advantage of this as well?"

snip>
If the use of debt to fund current consumption is to be sustainable, continually rising housing prices are required so that a plentiful supply of home equity to be cashed out is always available.

This might sound like a perpetual motion machine to old-school economists, who have argued that wealth creation required savings and investment. But thanks to recent developments in economic thinking, the use of permanently rising asset prices as a means of wealth creation now has a sound basis in economic theory.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was one of the first to see how rising home values could be a source of economic growth:

As an economic consultant in the 1960s, Alan Greenspan had a novel insight about buying and selling homes. He noticed that when a house changed hands, the mortgage the buyer took out almost always was bigger than the one the seller was retiring.

Mr. Greenspan went on to conclude that this borrowing played an unexpectedly large role in consumer markets, by generating extra spending power backed by the value of homes. At the time, it was an arcane thesis that few other economists accepted or even understood.

snip>
Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines has emphasized the important role of the GSEs in ensuring continually rising home prices. In a speech to the SIA, Raines calculated the supply of credit that would be available for mortgages. Raines then made an independent calculation for the demand for mortgage loans, based on the entirely reasonable assumption of continued home price appreciation.

According to Raines, credit demand would have exceeded credit supply by a significant margin. This would undoubtedly lead to a complete shutdown of the housing market, as home prices remained stuck at high levels that buyers could not afford. Fortunately, Fannie Mae was able to step in and provide the additional credit that was needed to make up the difference between supply and demand.

It was thought by older economists that supply and demand could not be permanently out of balance because the movement of prices would occur until supply and demand were matched. In this mode of thinking, supply, demand and price were seen as interdependent phenomena. Indeed, without Fannie Mae, the price system would have been required to bear the full burden of bringing supply and demand into balance. This would have meant either higher interest rates, lower home prices, or some combination of the two.

more...

[ozymandius]

23. Eventually, housing sales will cease.

This model suggests that homes will eventually become so expensive that no one will be able to qualify for a home loan. The home you own today will eventually be passed to your survivors after your demise.

Now that I see my words in print, the suggestion of using equity as income appears even more ludicrous.

[54anickel]

27. It is just so unfriggenbelievable, isn't it? I didn't think we would ever

actually see an article making those claims.

"I don't think we're in Kansas anymore Toto".
We have reached the "Outer Limits" - thanks Greenspin.

[UpInArms]

30. sounds a lot like

auto-cannibalism.

[KoKo]

31. This has to be demented ravings. Someone is actually trying to sell this

point of view? I'll link to the article later to read the whole thing, just the snips here had me ready to lose my breakfast.

Nothing is believable anymore is it? Maybe that's the idea. Make it all so surreal that we hunker in a hole because we can't believe what we know because it's distorted. Possibly a PsyOp's campaign :tinfoilhat:

Since this article now has ME raving I will move on to something else.
:crazy:

[ozymandius]

20. Someone just flushed - 10:39

Dow 10,486.74 -42.74 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 1,996.38 -12.40 (-0.62%)
S&P 500 1,141.47 -5.73 (-0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 3.768% -0.008

[54anickel]

22. Uh-oh - Just broke 2 psychologically important points will the technicals

be next or will the PPT, geo-magnetic storms or bargain hunters move in to save the day?

[KoKo]

25. Just checked my "little basket" of stocks I watch and looks like either

traders covering, or traders buying. It's hard to know right now, but it looks like an attempt to buy in, but could just be "short covering" tech glitch? Since it's the techs in my basket that are reacting, it makes me wonder. The other non techs, haven't moved today.

[ozymandius]

26. We can always count on the bargain hunters.

They will float the numbers upward as they grab choice stocks. The day traders will probably move in after awhile to turn around a quick 24 hour profit after a flea-sized sucker rally has been established.

[UpInArms]

32. lookie at those vertical lines 11:00 EST

careful they might put your eye out

Dow 10,500.44 -29.04 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,000.13 -8.65 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,142.22 -4.98 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 3.764% -0.012

[54anickel]

34. Simutaneous post again! High fives!!! n/t

[UpInArms]

35. great minds?

[54anickel]

38. Old Elvis song is playing in my head right now -

"Suspicious Minds"

[salin]

28. Interesting... for the past several weeks

movement seems to have been bounded (by the closing) between 10,500 and 10,700 - not really falling below or climbing above. In a sense things have remained rather vertical.

So right now we have fallen just below that bar - but the day is early. Will that seemingly mass-pyschological barrier be broken today or will things shift upward enough to keep this vertical movement going.

Btw, on my opinion of the PPT - I don't think it has been involved at all - no need for smaller ups and downs. I think the last time we may have seen some intervention was well over a year ago during the huge - potentially destabilizing swings - that occured during the second round of corporate implosions (i.e., Worldcom, Adelphia, Tyco, etc.)

[54anickel]

33. Looks like there's a nice little bounce to the pysch barriers

Dow 10,500.52 -28.96 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,000.13 -8.65 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,142.22 -4.98 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 3.764% -0.012

edit for html

10:55AM: The failure of the Nasdaq to respond to good news is the tale of today, as that index slips below 2000...semiconductor company Cymer (CYMI 37.62 -0.90) opened up over a dollar after raising revenue estimates above Wall Street expectations...now, it is down almost a dollar...the Nasdaq is also looking weak on the charts to the technical analysts...the tech sector may be dragging the overall market down, but at least Nike (NKE 76.65 +2.16) has reacted positively after it guided current quarter profit estimates higher...NYSE Adv/Dec 1190/1756, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1062/1783

10:30AM: Market gives way across the board on no specific news...the failure to hold as the Nasdaq went positive and the S&P approached unchanged may have prompted more selling pressure...the market is now broadly lower with few standout movers on the actives list other than Texas Instruments (TXN 26.91 -0.99) and Sun Microsystems (SUNW 4.44 -0.22) after a downgrade by Banc of America Securities to a neutral rating...NYSE Adv/Dec 1361/1473, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1399/1363

[KoKo]

44. This headline is going to have Rove Sweating:"Nasdaq Wipes out 2004 Gains!

CBS MarketWatch
U.S. stocks lower as Nasdaq wipes out 2004 gains
Tuesday March 9, 10:48 am ET
By Rex Nutting

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks were lower Tuesday as broad weakness in the technology sector took the Nasdaq below 2,000, wiping out all its gains for 2004, while Alcoa, International Paper and Eastman Kodak kept the Dow under pressure.

"Going under 2,000 on the Nasdaq certainly has a psychological impact," said Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan, Beck & Co. "But obviously we're still in something of a trading range. The market is unable to move higher and it won't until we see an improvement in the employment situation in the U.S."

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040309/e701edf97d127ef899761cec5c3c4d0b_1.html

[54anickel]

51. Yeah, I don't think this misadmin appreciates the constant reminder of

the employment situation. That little comment has got to sting a bit.

[54anickel]

37. Hard to tell, is it PPT or bargain hunters -

We recently read a market wrap-up discussing how there are now so many traders using technical analysis. If you add to that the "fragile" predicament the markets have now found themselves, I tend to suspect some manipulation these days. We can never be sure, but those vertical lines in the charts just now have got to raise your curiosity just a bit, No. :shrug:

[KoKo]

40. Some might enjoy this comment from Trader on Yahoo Finance Msg Board..

This is a worthless high flying tech I watch because it has huge trader activity. (actually its a Trader Pump Stock)

It expresses Trader attitude perfectly. (Love their optimism!) :D


---------------------------------------------------------

I really didnt expect this much of a sell off.
by: sam_wacksell (52/M/Jail)

Long-Term Sentiment: Hold 03/09/04 10:20 am
Msg: 303368 of 303375

still bought more at this price 39.12 and will only buy more on strength now.

will only sell bellow 35

-----------------------------------------------------------

[54anickel]

43. I replied to the original post 36.

[KoKo]

47. ROFL! I missed Mamma.com. Oh the fortune I could have made?

Why couldn't I be more optimistic about our wonderful American ability for Innovation? (sarcastic comment brought to mind by Friedman's article about Job Oursourcing to India being balanced by Innovation of t-shirt sloganeer.) :crazy:

[salin]

41. I tend to think of two things

first I believe there is a bit of mass pysch that goes on - esp when things move progressively in one direction or the other over time (e.g., weeks.. little bumps but overall upward moves that take things, for example, from the mid 9,000s up to the mid 10,000s) - and that sometimes that works to set relative boundaries. This includes a lot of "following others trends" behavior.

I also think that this is fairly typical behavior. For years the index remained below 5,000 - that means all of the trading was relatively bound. In this perspective it would appear that a 'new' stability point would have been found - and that the steep climb over the 90s is the more unusual event (from a more longitudinal/historical perpsective) than is the relative vertical trading.

[54anickel]

45. Could very well be. It's very hard to tell what's going on whether it

be bargain hunters, savy players seeding/baiting a move up before a fleecing or the PPT. What I think can be discounted is P/E ratios and real growth expectations in most stocks right now. There may be a few that are doing well, especially in the banking and finance sectors, but certainly not many truly under valued offerings right now.
Besides, I think the PPT is a saner boogey man to believe in that this:

http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=AFD46B63-2852-4812-BE83E6D0C777F4BF&method=display

[ozymandius]

46. Saying goodbye at 11:39

Dow 10,503.55 -25.93 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,009.48 +0.70 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,144.39 -2.81 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 3.749% -0.027


U.S. stocks lower as Nasdaq '04 gains under threat

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks were lower Tuesday as broad weakness in the technology sector briefly took the Nasdaq below 2,000, wiping out all its gains for 2004, while Alcoa, International Paper and Eastman Kodak kept the Dow under pressure.

"Going under 2,000 on the Nasdaq certainly has a psychological impact," said Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan, Beck & Co. "But obviously we're still in something of a trading range. The market is unable to move higher and it won't until we see an improvement in the employment situation in the U.S."

<cut>
Bonds, currencies

The Treasury market rally reached its third day, keeping benchmark yields at July lows on speculation tepid U.S. job growth will keep the Federal Reserve off the interest-rate trigger for several months.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up modestly, priced at 101 26/32. Its yield (CBOE:^TNX - News) which moves inversely to price, remained at 3.77 percent.

The dollar was little changed against the world's major currencies.

story

You folks have a wonderful afternoon. It has been great being here with you for an unusually long time.

Ozy :hi:

[KoKo]

48. Thanks Ozy. It's a lively day indeed, here. Enjoy the rest of the day!

:hi:

[54anickel]

50. Bye Ozy, Thanks again for getting this thread off and running each day!

[54anickel]

52. Hmm, If the dollar is little changed, what's moving gold up 4.90 now?

[54anickel]

54. Hey, even silver broke 7.00. What's up with that?

[UpInArms]

53. Market Numbers at 12:02 EST and blather

Dow 10,462.59 -66.89 (-0.64%)
Nasdaq 1,998.93 -9.85 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 1,141.51 -5.69 (-0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 3.738% -0.038

11:30AM: Nasdaq makes another run at getting to breakeven and pops back through 2000...the next big event for the market just might be Oracle's earnings report due after the close Thursday...expectations are for operating profits of $0.12 a share, up marginally from $0.11 last year...revenue is expected to be up to about $2.5 billion from $2.3 billion the year before... NYSE Adv/Dec 1290/1777, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1275/1667

[54anickel]

55. OUCH!!! See what happens over the lunch lull. Blather doesn't quite

fit the chart and numbers, does it?

[KoKo]

57. Nasdaq looks like a roller coaster since 10:a.m. Very odd. Haven't seen

a day like this in a long while. It ticked below 2000 then went up to 2009 and now testing 2000 again.

Dow 10,466.74 -62.74 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,000.13 -8.65 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,141.15 -6.05 (-0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 3.731% -0.045
NYSE Volume 627,428,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,021,441,000
Quote data provided by Reuters

[54anickel]

59. KoKo, I don't track volume, is that considered high or low?

[KoKo]

61. I don't honestly know, 54. I'll try to check it out. Not a volume

watcher myself, either.

[UpInArms]

62. here's a java chart

where you can look at the volumes

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=djia&time=&freq=

[54anickel]

64. Why thank you UIA. Not sure if I'm reading this correctly, but it looks

like the volume on the NASDAQ is so-so. Not high or low, but really I can't tell.

[KoKo]

65. Thanks, UIA. I checked Nadaq volume and today's so far doesn't look quite

as high for volume as January when the market took that big dip. I guess we will have to wait and see. Since the PPI numbers weren't released (article here on DU) today, I wonder if that could have upset the markets. Maybe the "manipulation" is beginning to sink in or it could be the Consumer Confidence number down. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

76. you're welcome KoKo01 (and 54anickel :)

I'm not really a volume watcher, but occasionally refer to that chart to see if I missed something :)

as for the PPI reports (now Jan and Feb), I knew I recognized that odor drifting from the BoL - it does remind me of books cooking :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

80. Ah yes, the PPI, will we ever see that report, or should I just wait until

my grocery bill hits $300 to assume we might be suffering from just a wee bit of inflation. :eyes:

[kysrsoze]

99. No kidding! Everything is up these days.

I locked in on a 30 year mortgage rate of 5 1/8 today so I can offset my upcoming HUGE real estate tax increase. We're getting reamed on everything outside mortgage rates. I won't be moving anytime soon. Rolled all my debts into the mortgage and have started saving again. My car has been paid off for two years and I have no intention of getting a new one anytime soon. No more credit cards. Personal debt is getting out of control and I think reckoning time is coming soon.

[54anickel]

101. Congrats on that mortgage rate and starting to save again!

[54anickel]

56. Gold edges up on central bank pact (Old news, ain't it?)

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures moved higher Tuesday, with traders cautiously buying into the precious metals market after some European central banks agreed to a plan to limit gold sales.


"Fears of dramatically higher central bank sales have now eased thanks to the latest accord," said Peter Grandich, editor of investment publication The Grandich Letter.

Twelve European central banks agreed Monday to limit their total combined gold sales to 500 metric tons per year for the next five years. The agreement commences on Sept. 27, when a previous pact, known as the Washington Agreement, expires.

With that in the backdrop, and "after several weeks of high volatility, gold is attempting to re-establish its march towards $500 an ounce," said Grandich.

Gold for April delivery traded at $401.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.

The "ups and downs of the euro remains gold's largest influencing factor," Grandich said.

snip>
Silver at fresh six-year high

In other metals trading Tuesday, silver for May delivery stood at $7.065 per ounce, up 7.5 cents. The contract has not traded at levels this high since February1998.

"Prices have risen dramatically over the past months as speculators, both large and small, have piled into the market," Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, said in a note to clients.

"Prices have risen over $1 per ounce over the past three months even as the fundamentals of the silver market deteriorate rapidly," he said.

[54anickel]

58. Appreciation of TL Boosts Demand for Gold

http://www.zaman.org/?bl=economy&alt=&trh=20040309&hn=6164

Turkey has surpassed Saudi Arabia and Japan on its way to capturing fourth place in the gold market. Istanbul Gold Market (IAB) Assistant Manager Vedat Ozdan said yesterday that they have reached record numbers. If one were to compare it to 2002, 2003 was basically a 'gold' year.

Ozdan emphasized that in general demand for gold is decreasing worldwide; however, Turkey is an exception to the rule. Ozdan indicated that appreciation of Turkish Lira (TL) against dollar has caused a serious spike in demand, thus necessitating an increase in gold imports.

bit more....

[54anickel]

60. PBOC ponders bank reserves

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-03/09/content_1353960.htm

BEIJING,March.9(Xinhuanet) -- China is considering to differentiate the reserve requirement for its commercial banks as an attempt to restrain their lending capability amid the over-heating economy.

The People's Bank of China is in discussions to launch a new set of reserve requirements for mainland banks to support a healthy macro-economic development, said Zhou Xiaochuan, Chinese central bank governor.

The chief monetary regulator said that by diversifying the reserve requirement, banks with better asset quality and less operation risk can expand quicker, while other lenders would slow down their expansions.

snip>
Reserve requirements regard the amount of funds banks must hold in reserve against deposits made by their customers. The money must be in the banks' vaults or at the central bank.

In increasing the requirement, about 150 billion yuan in reserves has been frozen, the central bank said.

Meanwhile, Han of Haitong Securities said that an increased reserve requirement will not weaken the big-four state-owned commercial banks' financial strength as "they are currently sufficient in capital while the quality of their assets need to be improved."

snip>
Local analysts said that tightening monetary policies, such as increasing the reserve requirement, is a substitute method to hiking interest rates to ease inflation.

[UpInArms]

66. Market Numbers and blather

Dow 10,463.18 -66.30 (-0.63%)
Nasdaq 1,997.42 -11.36 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,140.36 -6.84 (-0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 3.726% -0.050

1:00PM: There just isn't a whole lot on the calendar this week to break the doldrums...economic releases tomorrow are trade balance and wholesale inventories...stocks may not even notice...Thursday brings the regular new claims data, as well as retail sales...Friday shows business inventories and the Michigan Sentiment Index...retail sales may provide some useful information, and the sentiment data usually has at least a short-term impact...

there are a number of retail earnings reports still to come this week, but most of the talk is now about first quarter earnings and the possibility of warnings as the calendar quarter winds down...NYSE Adv/Dec 1344/1805, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1260/1779

12:30PM: The indices stay in trading ranges with every effort at a rally having been quickly beaten back...volume remains light and there has been little news to prompt much movement...there just hasn't been much to get the market going today and the Nasdaq remains on the defensive, holding just above 2,000...NYSE Adv/Dec 1246/1903, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1151/1868

Dollar

Last trade 87.79 Change -0.21 (-0.24%)

[54anickel]

67. Huh. Maybe people are reading Buffett's newsletter articles after all.

I don't think we'll be seeing a rally in the buck for a while again. Too bad, I missed that last window on gold. Hopefully there'll be a couple of more chances, this is, afterall, an election year. :evilgrin:

Perhaps another opportunity will come around when Greenspin finally raises rates. I too, can be patient.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/opinion/09_03_04_e.asp

[KoKo]

68. Nasdaq "break points" to watch from Iossef, plus Gail Dudak veteran Mkt.

Guru sent out flash to her newletter subscribers today (as heard on CNBC, just now) advising them to watch out for a market "Correction."

Here's the quote from Iossef with what his charts tell him are the numbers to look for if there is a downturn for those who are "Nasdaq Watchers" and need the comfort of "signposts or markers," like I do.

First of all, we ought to acknowledge that NASDAQ has yet to violate inner channel support. Notice that the green line has been tested five times, and every time it has held. Moreover, even if the inner channel support line is violated, there is still outer channel support at 1970, and even at 1925. So NASDAQ can fall another 113 points, or 5.5%, and still stay within its upward rising channel. My point is this, we can have an additional 5.5% decline, but the intermediate term up-trend will remain intact. It will take a close below 1925 for the bears to claim victory. Assuming that the overall character of the markets remains bullish, and the intensity of demand for speculative stocks remains the same, then we ought to see NASDAQ bottoming between current levels and 2000. Not only 2000 was the break-out level, but also the Andrews Pitch Fork points to it, and there is a support line from the October and December lows. If the intensity of demand for speculative stocks has abated somehow, but the overall character of the markets remains bullish, then we may see an additional decline up to 5.0%-5.5% before it turns back up again.

[54anickel]

70. I think the last line in the quote from Iossif might be the key there.

If the intensity of demand for speculative stocks has abated somehow, but the overall character of the markets remains bullish, then we may see an additional decline up to 5.0%-5.5% before it turns back up again.

Lots of concern on valuation in the news these days. So does the character remain bullish or not? Seems from an article that I posted earlier today that there is no shortage of Bulls right now. But, that could change on a dime.

Guess we'll watch for 1970 first followed by 1925 on the downside. On the upside, if I remember correctly, 2061 was an all important benchmark. :shrug:

[54anickel]

71. Post lunch update at 1:31

Dow 10,467.70 -61.78 (-0.59%)
Nasdaq 1,998.91 -9.87 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 1,141.32 -5.88 (-0.51%)
30-yr Bond 4.670% -0.042

Blather:
1:25PM: There is still no sign of a rally attempt...the indices slide to near the lows of the day and the Nasdaq dips below 2000 again...the Nasdaq is now 5 points below the 2003 level it entered 2004 at...the S&P 500 index is still up 30 points (2.7%) on the year...NYSE Adv/Dec 1351/1850, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1192/1898

[54anickel]

72. Hey UIA, any new words of wisdom from the Daily Reckoning today?

[UpInArms]

74. The Daily Reckoning

is only for those that are not faint of heart :evilgrin:

But since you asked ...

"It's completely natural," we explained to the reporter
from "20 Minutes" on Friday, "people try to improve their
living standards in the easiest way possible. But it's
unnatural when they can print the world's money whenever
they need some spending cash. Then, it is too easy. People
begin to think you can get rich by not saving... or by
borrowing and never paying back. It is dangerous; you
almost can't resist slitting your own throat."


We had been asked to condense the theme of our book
(recently a best-seller in France) into a sentence or two,
for a broad audience. "20 Minutes" is a newspaper read by
thousands of people on the metro in Paris every morning.


"Americans were on top of the world after WWII," we
continued. "Gradually, they lost the habits that had made
them rich... they became less thrifty and more immodest.
Over 5 decades, my countrymen switched from making things
to buying things, from saving money to spending it, and
from lending money to the rest of the world to borrowing
from it. The economy gradually changed from production to
consumption, from manufacturing to retailing, from GM to
Wal-Mart. And Wall Street mutated, too... from investing in
industries, to investing in speculative finance."


"But the latest GDP numbers show the U.S. economy doing
very well," protested the reporter.


"Ah... but there are different kinds of economies," we
replied. "There's the kind of economy that makes people
wealthy - in which people make things and sell them at a
profit. And there's the economy that helps rich people get
rid of their money... a consumption-led economy, with few
factories, but plenty of credit and shopping malls.


"Unfortunately, most economists can't tell the difference.
And the GDP numbers make no distinction between a
productive, wealth-creating economy and a declining,
wealth-consuming one. GDP only measures activity. It is a
bit like taking the temperature of a shooting victim; you
mightn't spot the problem until the body cools."


"Every day, the lifeblood of the U.S. economy dribbles
overseas," we went on. "Profits, jobs, revenues... all flow
towards lower-cost production centers. Today's
job report out of the federal government, for example,
shows about 100,000 fewer jobs than economists expected.
Where are the jobs that should have been created by this
stage of the 'recovery?' No one knows. All they can think
of is the novel idea that productivity and innovation more below] have now made labor unnecessary - just as they
said the New Era made savings unnecessary. But is all fraud
and chutzpah... "


The Feds try to rescue the situation; they attach jumper
cables of credit... stand back... and give the body a jolt.
The poor schmuck jumps from the table, refinances his
houses, and falls again in a heap. But the juice ends up
stimulating economies in China, Malaysia and India! That's
where they make the things Americans want to buy.


Thank God for Zembei Mizoguchi. The VP of the Japanese
Ministry of Finance keeps the patient on life-support. He
spent $250 billion of Japanese taxpayers' money last
year... buying U.S. debt. This year, he may spend $270
billion.


As long as the money pumps back into the U.S. economy,
Americans' home prices rise... and they borrow and spend
happily. No one, neither Republican nor Democrat, high nor
low, drunk nor sober, seems to notice that the patient is
bleeding to death.

[54anickel]

78. Sheesh, I had to ask, didn't I? Not a pretty picture there. Maybe I'll

go check out the NRO for some happy "Cheerleading".

[54anickel]

87. In my quest for cheerleading, all I could find was this tidbit on Insider

Trading and Martha. Always nice to know what the other side thinks.

http://www.nationalreview.com/moore/moore200403090901.asp

What’s Wrong with Insider Trading?
The railroading of Martha Stewart.

I'm anything but a fan of Martha Stewart, and the idea of her stuck in a cage making baskets of potpourri for the next two years is not at all unappealing. Stewart lost all my respect when, after the first indictment against her came down, she accused her adversaries of being part of a vast right-wing conspiracy against her.

snip>
Libertarians have long argued that insider trading should not be a crime, because 1) there is no victim, and 2) because everyone who makes money in the financial markets is engaging in some degree of insider trading — some just have better information than others. Being a good stock picker involves having more information, and knowing how to get it, faster than other traders. What is the difference, really, between a hot stock tip, and insider trading? The line is so murky that it makes the enforcement of insider-trading laws inconsistent and capricious.

Now, advocates of insider-trading laws are probably irate at this proposition of mine to legalize insider trading, because insider trading "hurts the mom-and-pop investor." They also say that we need to enforce this law to maintain the integrity and the public confidence of the financial markets. Baloney. The market fell — it didn't rise — on the news of Martha Stewart's conviction. If investors believe that the SEC can throw you in jail for making trades that can be construed by a federal prosecutor as based on "insider information," this has a chilling effect on the financial markets and all stocks are hurt. That means all investors are also hurt.

I'm in favor of repealing insider-trading laws and replacing them with a new "let the investor beware" rule in publicly traded companies. My colleague from the Cato Institute, Doug Bandow, has written persuasively on this topic for years, and I would recommend his logic on the subject. Why not let those who have access to insider information trade on it? Let companies have bylaws in their charters to deal with selling on insider information. Repealing insider-trading laws will simply lead to information being spread faster and more efficiently throughout Wall Street.

:puke:

[UpInArms]

91. I am so impressed

My colleague from the Cato Institute, Doug Bandow, has written persuasively on this topic for years, and I would recommend his logic on the subject.

And Ken Lay was with the American Enterprise Institute.

Dropping names???

Let's drop a few more - Halliburton, Harken, Bechtel, Reliant Energy, Duke, Dynergy :mad:

:nuke:

[kysrsoze]

100. That's such horsesh*t. Us 'little people' don't get the benefit of

insider trading. What a bunch of pricks.

[54anickel]

102. Consider the source - I always like to see what the other side thinks, but

then I tend to regret every looking. Sort of like watching a horror flick, you cover your eyes, then like an idiot you peek thru the cracks in your fingers and spend the next 20 minutes praying to the porcelain god.

[KoKo]

105. Typical Libertarian Garbage. Me/Me/My/Mine....My Rights/My Stuff...arrgh.

[54anickel]

108. Hey, I got mine - you go get your own!! HA HA!!!! Sounds like Shrub!

[KoKo]

79. OMG, UIA.........I can see why you waited until asked for posting that one

Since you've done it, I will add that Chalmers Johnson who wrote "Blowback" and serves on a US/Japanese Policy Council amongst other things has written a book "Sorrows of Empire." He was on C-Span and a quote from him about where the US is headed was: "Outside of buying a condo in Vancover, I can't recommend any way out for Americans."

Between our "faux economy" and "Empire Building" things don't look so good. :-(

[UpInArms]

81. there are moments that

cause me to worry about our future - but there have been so many in the past 3+ years that I have had to develop a real coping mechanism - and it sounds so very simplistic, but for whatever reason it does work for me:

Think global - act local

I try to figure out how to keep me and mine as secure as possible in worst case scenarios and to do all that I can to awaken others to the dangers of the policies of our government.

I don't plan on leaving here - that question has been put to me in so many ways - this was my country long before I was born and long before these bastards have tried to make it unrecognizable. I don't know what the answers are, all I know is that knowledge is power. Don't let it frighten you into running. The more light we can shine on the inner workings of our goverment and the financial communities, the better off everyone will be.

I understand what Johnson is saying - but I say this is ours and to leave it gives the green light for it to continue and then where do we go when it spreads?

[KoKo]

85. I agree. A "condo in Vancouver" is no hideaway when what goes on here

affects the whole world. Won't make one any safer, or financially more secure than finding a way to cope where we are. Hopefully our experience here on DU will help us be better prepared to deal with whatever is coming. The other folks....well, I don't know. But, "knowledge is power" and we just have to do what you said and try to keep those loved ones around us safe and spread the word to help others who can open their minds to listen.

Thanks!

[54anickel]

73. CEO confidence slips

http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/09/news/economy/ceo_confidence/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Business leaders remain confident about the future health of the U.S. economy, but their optimism has cooled from last year's peaks, according to a recent survey.

TEC International Inc., a private CEO development firm, said Tuesday its index of the confidence of CEOs of small- to mid-sized U.S. companies slipped to 113.9 in the first quarter from 115.6 in the fourth quarter of 2003.

"Although firms did expect a slightly slower pace of growth, they still judge overall economic conditions quite favorable," Richard Curtin, TEC confidence index consultant, said in a release. Curtin also directs the University of Michigan's closely watched monthly consumer-sentiment surveys.

The results echo those of a monthly survey by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), which said Tuesday that small-business confidence slipped a bit in February, but remained at still-high levels.

snip>
TEC said about one in five CEOs surveyed planned to move jobs offshore in the next 12 months. With the labor market in its longest slump since the Labor Department started keeping track in 1939, "offshoring" has become a hot-button political issue -- though its impact on the broader labor market has so far been relatively minimal.

More important to the job situation has been the broad drive among companies to contain costs, sometimes by moving jobs overseas, but more often by using technology and other methods to enhance efficiency.

TEC says that small- to mid-size businesses are critical to the health of the broader economy, creating about 75 percent of all new jobs

[54anickel]

75. Discontented U.S. consumers still shop, for now

http://www.forbes.com/markets/economy/newswire/2004/03/09/rtr1291849.html

NEW YORK, March 9 (Reuters) - Disappointing jobs growth darkened U.S. consumers' view of the economy in March but it did not stop them from shopping, reports released on Tuesday showed.

Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence said their economic optimism index fell to 54.5 in March from 56.5 in February, although an industry research group said retail sales in the first part of the month grew 7.0 percent on a year-over-year basis.

snip>
The component measuring confidence in federal economic policies dropped 3.0 points to 47.5, just above its lowest reading of 47.4 under U.S. President George W. Bush.

This could prove to be an obstacle for President Bush as he seeks reelection this year.

"Those who are more apt to support Bush surprisingly took a dimmer view of the economy ... than his opponents," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. :evilgrin:

snip>
After February's surprisingly weak payrolls report, analysts are watching retail sales to see if consumers can shrug off worries over sluggish jobs growth and continue to drive the economy.

snip>
"We believe last week's disappointing payroll employment report simply underscores the need for a continued rise in consumer spending to help stimulate corporate demand for workers," said Steven Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist at ABN AMRO Incorporated, in a recent report.

So get yer butt out there and buy some socks! :7

[SEAburb]

83. Capital fleeing stocks to safe haven bonds, doesn't look good for

the future economic recovery.

[54anickel]

90. Just think of it as a bit of simple consolidation. It doesn't hurt as

much that way.

It also tends to save me from banging my head against the wall when it starts to rally for no apparent reason in a couple of days as well. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

84. A Perennial Gift From Greenspan

The latest from Rep. Ron Paul(R)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul163.html

For years, the central planners at the Federal Reserve have assured us that inflation is dormant, if not dead. Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke, during a recent speech in Washington, took pains to emphasize that inflation is “Under very good control.” But considering the relentless increase in the money supply engineered by the Fed over the last decade, one wonders whether Mr. Bernanke, Chairman Greenspan, and company protest too much.

Austrian-school economists demonstrate that true inflation is monetary inflation. True inflation therefore can be measured by an increase in the money supply. Mr. Greenspan and Fed policy makers have more than doubled the M3 money supply in less than ten years. While Treasury printing presses can print unlimited dollars, there are natural limits to economic growth. This flood of newly minted US currency can only increase consumer prices in the long term, as more and more dollars chase available goods and services.

snip>
“The Federal Reserve always promises that it’s working to bring down inflation, but as Murray N. Rothbard shows in The Case Against the Fed, it never does. Since the Fed came into being, the dollar’s value has plummeted to less than a penny, and even at a 3% inflation rate, prices will tend to double every 25 years… The Fed wants to cover its crimes by appearing more successful at ‘battling inflation.’ What the Fed doesn’t want to talk about is the real cause of inflation: not greedy consumers, avaricious workers, or price-gouging corporations, but the central bank itself, and its power and practice of creating money out of thin air.”

more...

[UpInArms]

86. Market Numbers at 2:30 EST

and the bloodletting continues...

Dow 10,440.00 -89.48 (-0.85%)
Nasdaq 1,992.03 -16.75 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,138.41 -8.79 (-0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 3.725% -0.051

[KoKo]

88. Well my "trader benchmark" tech stock has flatlined and is holding, so

maybe the worst is over. If that one ticks down again then I'll get worried. It's been my weathervane for years. It's the home of the Trader Bulls which is why I watch it so carefully.

Will keep you posted.

[54anickel]

89. Well, we can certainly toss out any suspicions of market manipulation

today!

[JNelson6563]

94. Someone make the bad man stop!

Howdy Marketeers!

Looks like the "correcetion" is in full swing!

2:56

Dow 10,436.07 -93.41 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq 1,989.32 -19.46 (-0.97%)
S&P 500 1,138.00 -9.20 (-0.80%)
10-Yr Bond 3.727% -0.049

How low can those crazy Treasuries go?

Hope it's all good with you-all! :hi:

Julie

[54anickel]

96. Hey, hey!! Good to see you Julie. Correction indeed. My S&P below

1139, not good, not good at all.

[KoKo]

97. Hi Julie! interesting day, here. BTW Yahoo Finance supports: 1983/1980.

So their benchmark supports aren't as low as Iossif's before they worry.
-----------


2:40PM Nasdaq Composite probing Feb low again (COMPX) 1992 -16.75: -- Update -- -- Technical -- The index held at the Feb low (1991.05) during a morning test but it has slipped back toward this level again in recent trade. The next minor supports are at 1983/1980 and the 1976/1973 area. First step needed to improve the bias is sustained move back above 2000 and 2009/20012.

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[54anickel]

92. Fannie Mae faces $25bn derivatives losses (Uh-oh here we go)

The FT server is getting overloaded with requests for another article linked to this one - I'll keep trying

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381640902

Fannie Mae paid a net $25.1bn on derivatives transactions in under four years - nearly all of which may represent losses that cannot be recouped, in turn depressing future earnings.

The potential scale of the liabilities, which have yet to be recognised in the company's earnings or in the minimum capital adequacy required by its regulator, raise fresh doubts about the financial health of the mortgage finance giant.

Regulation of Fannie Mae and its sibling Freddie Mac is rapidly moving up the agenda in Washington, amid concerns that the two goverment-sponsored entities have grown so big that they pose a systemic risk to the US financial system. The two entities own or guarantee mortgages totalling $4,000bn.

On Tuesday John Snow, US Treasury secretary, renewed the criticism, saying: "We don't believe in a too-big-to-fail doctrine, but the reality is that the market treats the paper as if the government is backing it."

more...

[54anickel]

93. Snow: U.S. doesn't back Fannie Mae

http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/09/news/companies/snow_gse.reut/

Treasury Secretary says government-sponsored firms, like Fannie, Freddie, are not too big to fail.
March 9, 2004: 2:21 PM EST



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow took direct aim Tuesday at mortgage finance firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, repeating previous warnings to investors that government-sponsored enterprises are not financially backed by the U.S. government.

"We don't believe in a 'too big to fail' doctrine, but the reality is that the market treats the paper as if the government is backing it. We strongly resist that notion," he said in prepared remarks before a bankers group here.

"You know there is that perception. And it's not a healthy perception and we need to disabuse people of that perception. Investments in Fannie (FNM: Research, Estimates) and Freddie (FRE: Research, Estimates) are uninsured investments," he said.

Because the companies were originally chartered by Congress and have access to multibillion-dollar emergency lines of credit, some investors treat their securities as almost equivalent to riskless U.S. Treasury debt.

[KoKo]

98. Now he warns investors. Yes, Snow, the cow is out of the barn and you

saw it coming but did nothing until opening your yap when the cow is way out into the pasture.

How many folks don't know if these two giants go belly up they don't have any recourse.

[54anickel]

109. Finally, I can get to the linked article! The link was called "Doubt

Oover Derivatives" The actual story is now titled "The Debate Over Derivatives"

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381640936&p=1012571727088

The debate over Fannie Mae's derivative positions hinges on an area of its accounting known as accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI).

Under hedge-accounting rules, the AOCI is the place on the balance sheet that houses changes in the current value of Fannie Mae's derivatives. AOCI gains or losses do not show up in the company's earnings. As the hedge positions reach maturity, the results gradually move to the net income statement.

In its fourth-quarter 2003 report, Fannie Mae's AOCI position was a negative $12.03bn. If these accumulated losses were included in the company's current earnings and regulatory capital, Fannie Mae's recent earnings would have been smaller and far more volatile, and the company would have fallen below its minimum capital requirements.

Fannie Mae says that AOCI is irrelevant to current earnings or capital levels, saying it provides a misleading view of the company's fiscal health. Jonathan Boyles, Fannie Mae's vice-president for financial standards and taxes, argues that "every financial regulator always ignores the AOCI amount".

But Fannie Mae's critics say it does matter. Cliff Stearns, a Republican congressman, said in House testimony last year that Fannie complies with Financial Accounting Standards (FAS) 133, which governs derivatives accounting. But Mr Stearns says that in correctly applying this rule, Fannie Mae has "used the special hedge accounting rule to defer the billions of dollars in lost shareholder value to the future".

more...

[54anickel]

95. Derivatives in the news

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/09/rtr1291552.html

JP Morgan's credit derivatives chief steps down

LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Tim Frost has left JP Morgan (nyse: JPM - news - people), where he was head of credit trading for Europe, a spokeswoman for the bank said on Tuesday.

Frost was with the U.S. investment bank for 16 years and was key to the development of JP Morgan's credit default swap business, where the bank has built a leading market position globally.

Sources close to the situation said they believed one of the reasons for Frost's departure was to pursue his political interests ahead of the next UK election.

JP Morgan, which declined to comment, has not yet decided on a replacement.


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=ap_v9NZs7JEI&refer=uk

Eton School Lost $7.8 Mln in 2002 on Derivatives, Times Reports

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Eton School, the U.K. private school, lost almost 4.2 million pounds ($7.8 million) in 2002 on the derivatives market, the London-based Times said, citing Eton's bursar Andrew Wynn.

The school, which charges pupils 21,000 pounds in annual fees, lost the equivalent of 3,000 pounds per student when it invested its 140 million pounds portfolio in futures and currencies, the paper said.

The losses were ``a pity,''.....


http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=21&story=36024
Fixed-income derivatives deals flouting the rulebook

Although over the counter (OTC) derivatives like currency options have picked up well, banks are entering into fixed income derivatives deals that are structured to flout the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) guidelines.

“The RBI norms have prohibited certain things in an option. They are leveraged swaps, discounting of rupee inflows and non-receipt of premium by corporates. While leveraged swaps create multiple risks on a single underlying asset, discounting of inflows happen when demand for cash dollars is high. Non-receipt of premium by corporates mean that corporates could not be net sellers of options. However, in order to maintain client relationship, various flexibilities are being used in the structures so that corporates end up receiving premium” said a banker.

One such deal structured between a corporate and bank in the recent past was “callable range accrual swap”.

snip>
Sources also added that since derivatives are yet to catch fancy of Indian market, various permutations and combinations are being tried by banks to woo customers. Moreover, interest rate conditions are also favouring such deals now.

However, if the customer is not savvy enough, it might be caught in the wrong foot when the conditions reverse.


http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/story/0,4567,110254,00.html
Mounting debt, rising asset prices worrying

GLOBAL financial markets rallied to a healthy start this year with 'a robust appetite for risk', but the unusual build-up of debt and rapid growth in asset prices, particularly in the housing market, are a cause for concern, according to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).

snip>
Despite the likely asset-price bubbles looming large over the US, whose budget deficit touched well over US$500 billion, and the continued weakening of the greenback against major foreign currencies, global financial markets showed a sustained rise in the prices of equity, corporate bonds and sovereign debt.

Commenting on the developments during the last quarter of 2003 in financial markets, the BIS, which is regarded as the central bank to central banks, says equity and credit markets rallied as government and swap yields declined, implying growing hunger for debt securities among investors.

snip>
Of late, the BIS, along with other central banks such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, seems gravely concerned over the rapid growth in asset prices, particularly in the US, and suggested the need to tackle them effectively through a strong monetary policy that would involve rising interest rates. In fact, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates to counter such a trend.

snip>
In Asia, there was substantial new net issuance of international debt by the Chinese government and financial institutions, indicating that borrowers could raise funds easily because investors found the yield low amid a continued narrowing of credit spreads.

The performance of derivative markets, which provide liquidity to the financial system, was far from impressive at the end of last year.

The aggregate turnover of exchange-traded financial derivatives contracts monitored by the BIS shrank further in the last quarter of 2003, with the combined value of trading in interest rate, stock index and currency contracts amounting to US$207 trillion, a 7 per cent decline from the third quarter.

[54anickel]

103. I don't think I'm buying this story -

BIS seeks to reassure over Asian forex moves

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381640105

There is no long-term correlation between Asian intervention in the foreign exchange markets and US treasury yields, according to a study this week by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

snip>
The Fed leader sought to calm fears over the possible impact of a withdrawal of Asian funds. He claimed that the buying is heavily concentrated in short-term maturities and that the size of the market and its liquidity, would limit the impact of any sale by Asian banks.

But that might not matter to the market. Traders pointed out - as the BIS accepted - that the current belief in Asia's power over the market would alone be enough to send yields sharply higher should the market take fright.

The good news is that central banks are not fickle investors. Japan's purpose in buying Treasuries is to limit its currency appreciation and invest in a safe asset. It would not be in its interest to sell the bonds and repatriate the proceeds.

Richard Gilhooly, fixed- income market strategist at BNP Paribas, says Japan "may stop buying but the chances of liquidation are quite small".

snip>
Investors will pay close attention to the auctions this week for signs of ongoing Asian demand.

Damned right we will!

more...

[54anickel]

104. US TREASURY OUTLOOK - Going once, going twice

http://www.forbes.com/markets/bonds/newswire/2004/03/09/rtr1292078.html

NEW YORK, March 9 (Reuters) - The bond market is gearing up for another Treasury auction over the next two days, and traders expect solid demand despite a mammoth rally in prices that has made the securities expensive compared with recent sales.

The two-part auction kicks off on Wednesday with $16 billion in five-year notes, followed by $11 billion in reopened 10-year notes on Thursday.

Of particular interest will be the extent of buying from indirect bidders, which consist mostly of foreign central banks that have become huge buyers of U.S. government debt over the past year.

There has been concern that the dollar's recent rebound would prompt the Bank of Japan and other Asian central banks to shy away from intervening in foreign exchange markets. That would mean turning off the spigot of cash that has helped compress Treasury yields over the past year.

more...

[nolabels]

106. Looking at the way things are shaping up, tomorrow should be??

:think: (me thinks, Yikes)

[KoKo]

107. We could do "derivatives and hedge our bets" on Up or Down for tomorrow.

Oops....too short a time frame. Anyone have 5 Bucks? We could do it the "old fashioned way" and forget the Hedges.

I'm not sure enough about this one-day correction to be sure which way. Given it's an election year, I would say some high rollers will get phone calls from Rove or Snow tonight. That means UP.

OTOH, if the cracks are getting wider like many of us who post here feel, then stuffing some more dollars in the wall of disinformation and hype there might not be working the way it used to. I'd say maybe we pull up over 2000 and trade in a ten point range tomorrow up and down. (Taking the middle road) :shrug: After that? Depends on the high rollers and the Bullish Traders, methinks.

[54anickel]

110. Closing numbers and the yada yada yada

Dow 10,456.96 -72.52 (-0.69%)
Nasdaq 1,995.16 -13.62 (-0.68%)
S&P 500 1,140.58 -6.62 (-0.58%)
30-yr Bond 4.672% -0.040

Close: A minor, late bounce did little to improve a poor day for the stock market...the tone was bearish right from the start, as the negative sentiment from Monday carried over into the open...there was seemingly good news from Texas Instruments (TXN 30.26 -0.34), Cymer (CYMI 37.80 -0.72), and TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT 7.45 -0.67) as all three semiconductor firms gave upbeat outlooks...but each of the stocks was down within the first hour...

the inability of these stocks to rally halted a couple of early attempts by the Nasdaq to push into positive territory, and once those failed, the market slid steadly until a rally in the final half hour cut some of the losses...still, the Nasdaq closed below 2000 and is now down for the year, while the Dow is up just 3 points for 2004...the next big event is Oracle's (ORCL 12.30 -0.06) earnings report after the close Thursday, but the market has not gotten any help from good news out of the technology sector of late...in the Dow, only 5 stocks were up, all marginally...industrials such as DuPont (DD 43.34 -1.01), General Motors (GM 46.74 -0.89), and United Technologies (UTX 88.75 -1.71) were down sharply...

the bearish sentiment was widespread as decliners led advancers by a wide margin...perhaps the best news was the third straight up day for bonds, as the 10-year note yield dropped to 3.72%...