PM unable to elevate Liberals: poll - Globe and Mail

[Screaming Lord Byron]

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040309.wxpoll0209/BNStory/National/

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pdf/media/mr040308-3tb.pdf

Ottawa — Paul Martin's strategy of tackling the sponsorship scandal head-on has burnished his personal popularity but left his party stalled in minority-government territory less than one month before the Prime Minister has been widely expected to call an election, a new poll indicates.

The survey, done by Ipsos-Reid for The Globe and Mail and CTV, puts Liberal support at 38 per cent nationally, with the Conservative Party at 26 per cent and the NDP at 17 per cent.

The brightest spot for the governing party is that Mr. Martin enjoys broad support among Canadians — with almost six in 10 voters saying they approve of the job he is doing.


Regional Breakdown
BC - Lib-33, NDP-29,CPC-27, Green-10
AB - CPC-57, Lib-24, NDP-16
SK/MN - Lib-36, NDP-31, CPC-24
ON - Lib-47, CPC-31, NDP-16
PQ - Bloc-49, Lib-31, NDP-8, CPC-6
ATL - Lib-49, CPC-31, NDP-17

Two assertions -
Firstly, the Liberals will gamble everything in an early election on Martin's considerable personal popularity.
Secondly, the NDP is closing in on the Liberals in Alberta, and has overtaken the PC's in Quebec. This means seats.

[Spazito]

1. Two things hit me on that poll...

One, that the Liberals are leading in B.C., that shocks me given that it is a bastion of old Alliance voters and

Two, that the Bloc may become the Official Opposition again which is ludicrous, they could hold the balance of power, geez!

[Screaming Lord Byron]

2. Check out the Green Vote in BC - 10%

There appears to have been a swing against the Reform base in BC.

[Minstrel Boy]

3. Ipsos Reid inflates the Green vote

by prompting respondents by naming the Green Party in their list of options. Other pollsters don't, and their findings for "Other" are much more in line with precedent.

BC is shaping up as an exciting three-way race. Gotta like the plummet for the Allia- er, Conservatives, there.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

6. Y'know, with the exception of Alberta, the CPC is way down across the west

That's a developing trend. It'll be very interesting once they have a leader, which is bound to affect their support. When people choose a leaderless opposition party, it's an easy protest, but what person are they thinking of as leader? Then it becomes more difficult for the Tories to soak up the protest vote.

[Spazito]

4. I hope you are right, I live in a Conservative infested area lol

it would be nice to see either the Liberals or NDP take my riding for a change. The Greens are strong here compared to elsewhere but still a small minority overall.

[Minstrel Boy]

5. The Conservatives are really showing poorly.

Their number is bedrock rightwing vote in Canada. I think it's about what the Alliance vote was in 2000. They have a lot going for them now - a Liberal scandal, and their own leadership contest - but that they can't do better now doesn't auger well for them in an election. Once they actually have to stand for something, they room for growth is curtailed.

[Spazito]

7. The faux "merger" was not a winner for them, imo

Hardliners from both the Alliance and the Conservatives won't accept any policy changes so it will be the same old, same old, and Canadians know it, no matter who they choose as leader in the end. My bet is Harper and the policies will be the old Alliance ones.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

8. Actually, this may surprise you.

2000 results

BC

CA - 49.4
Lib - 27.6
NDP - 11.3
PC - 7.3

AB

CA - 58.8
Lib - 20.9
PC - 13.5
NDP - 5.5

Where the hell is the NDP surge in Alberta coming from?

[Spazito]

9. Looks like those that voted PC last time have gone NDP rather than...

New Conservative, very interesting! I would have thought that they would have gone Liberal if anywhere.

[Minstrel Boy]

10. Interesting. And here's something else:

The recent Ekos poll said that the most popular second choice of Canadian voters is now the NDP. It had been the Liberals. So there are now more people who would consider voting NDP than would consider voting Liberal.

As for Alberta's federal PCs supporting the NDP, I guess they, more than anyone in the country, know the true nature of the "Conservatives." To resist the pull of the Alliance, they must have been dyed in the wool Red Tories.

There was a rumour, I don't know how well founded, that Maureen McTeer might have been approached to run for the NDP in Calgary Centre. I don't believe it myself, but it's almost believable.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

11. Well, we've absorbed quite a few members of Joe Clark's team into the NDP

which is very encouraging. Our candidate in North Centre (Calgary Centre was split two ways) is John Chan, who is going to attempt to motivate the considerable Chinese vote in the riding. The riding is a target for the party, as it covers an area we have represented Provincially.

[Tommy_Douglas]

12. This is not surprising...

The CA got votes because they claimed to stand up for the west. A new nation wide Conservative party does not do that. And as such there is no reason for many voters to vote for them.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

13. There's also the feeling among many Reformers

that they've just wasted sixteen years of their political lives. They went from the PC's to Reform back to something suspiciously similar to what made them Reformers in the first place. Many will stay home, deflating turnout, leading to some surprise results in BC, and possibly in Edmonton.

[molok555]

14. Speaking for BC

The provincial Libs have just about burned all the support for the federal Libs and the CPC: either they are too close (see arrests in Leg last year) or they are former Reformers who have f***ed up BC. Voters there have seen the results of "don't tax and spend" and "privatize everything" and they don't like it. For the federal parties, it's guilt by association.

[MrPrax]

15. As much as I like Layton and the NDP...

I certainly HOPE I can vote for them...

These polls are not encouraging...it was much better for the NDP before the scandal...

It rather looks like New Dems will max at 20% nationally...
The CPC running at 24% in SK/MB is probably the result of the Grant Devine fiasco...
A momentary blip...

Jack and the Boys had better do something and quick if there is a spring election...