CIA Director Sees 'Low' Chance for Iraq Civil War

[pinto]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - CIA (news - web sites) Director George Tenet on Tuesday said there was "low" probability that civil war would break out in Iraq (news - web sites) before the planned handover of sovereignty on June 30.

On Monday, Iraq's Governing Council signed an interim constitution, and full democratic elections are due next year.

But the signing was overshadowed by criticism from Iraq's top Shi'ite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who objected to an unelected entity being given power to make legislative decisions. Sistani has immense influence over the Shi'ite majority, who make up about 60 percent of Iraq's population.

Asked about the likelihood that a civil war would break out and hinder turning sovereignty over to Iraq, Tenet told a Senate Armed Services Committee (news - web sites) hearing: "At this moment we see the probability as low."


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&e=1&u=/nm/20040309/ts_nm/security_cia_dc

[La_Serpiente]

1. Oh puleeze

The issue regarding Kurdish autonomy hasn't even been settled yet. Of course, the Kurds want to be autonomous, but Turkey won't allow it at all.

And here from Newsday:

Ethnic strains imperil Kirkuk
As Kurds stake a claim to their former city, Arabs and Turkmens are ready to fight back

KIRKUK, Iraq -- The grousing of a young member of the Iraqi Turkmen Front over prices at a Kurd-owned grocery last week nearly triggered an ethnically charged street fight on Kirkuk's main drag.

The shopkeeper snapped back with an ethnic slur, and the Turkmen Front member retreated across the street to ITF headquarters to retrieve his Kalashnikov, according to Iraqi police and witnesses. He then climbed up to the building's balcony and reportedly fired two rounds in the general direction of the shop.

Within minutes, police and U.S. soldiers were at the scene, but not before dozens of Kurds poured into the street screaming obscenities at the Turkmen as he and his compatriots pointed weapons at the crowd.

Such is life in the tinderbox that is Kirkuk, where ethnic conflict among Arabs, Kurds and Turkmens has smoldered for months, complicating the delicate task of forging democracy in Iraq.

more...

Ethnic strains imperil Kirkuk

[displacedtexan]

2. ... and he sends greetings from planet Oh! Right! Sure!

What an idiot! The civil war has already started.

This story is a political 'floater,' which is put out there to be referenced at a later date. Either way, media whores can cite this quote to say Tenet was right (only a possibility of civil war, which never came to pass) or to say that he thought civil war was possible (and media whores will offer him kudos for being oh so prescient).

[pinto]

4. and Tenet was careful to use a June 30th time frame, after that....

we'll be demanding UN intervention to help with civil "unrest". I agree, the civil war has already begun.

[mike1963]

3. So is he still using the same Magic Eight Ball from 2002?

:eyes:

[MisterP]

5. "before the planned handover of sovereignty"

aw, nuts

[Jacobin]

7. Bingo. That qualifier tells all

Great, so no civil war for four months. What's up after that?

[SoCalDem]

6. Did they intercept a communique to "tele-flora"??

That must be it.. The Iraqis have ordered the flowers that they will gently toss at the "liberators"... :eyes:

[Rex]

8. Why is it that whenever one of these snakes says something

I automatically believe the opposite?

[Mel]

16. Because you are paying attention!

;)

Tenet is full of it I watched a little of that hearing and I don't believe a word he's saying either.

I'm working on reading "The Price of Loyalty" Author Ron Suskind.
Tenet is all slung up in it and he's not going to tell Congress the truth.

Kerry should fire Tenet as soon as he wins the election.

[Malva Zebrina]

9. Does this clown have any credibility left at all?

I watched him today. He is the master of double speak , obfuscation and denial. He is a shameful person to have as the director of our intelligence facilities because obviously he is supporting Bush.

If he is not, then he certainly looks like a stupid ass who cannot think , or parse and is dedicated to the spin, the Bush spin and this is most embarrassing for our country.

It simply does not matter what he thinks about the possibility of civil war in Iraq. He has been effectively mooted.

[0007]

17. I watched it all also. George Tenet fools no one with his

obfucation and denial. When tenet didn't want to talk about something, he said it would have to talked about it behind closed doors.

[Chango]

10. Bad news, considering the CIA's past screw-ups

If the CIA sas no civil war is imminent, I'd give odds that it's about to bust out.

[JohnOneillsMemory]

21. Just after the SOTU, unnamed CIA warned civil war was imminent.

I remember the article. It completely contradicted what the White House was saying about how smooth and groovy things were in Iraq.

I thought that it might be true or possibly CIA shaking the limb the White House was on to get some movement on the Plame outting case.

[Nevernose]

11. Where do I get some of what Tenet's smoking?

Sure, it can't be as good as what Cheney's been snorting, but it still must be pretty good.

[pinto]

12. just saw the replay on CSPAN (PST), Tenet was surprised to learn

that Feith's (discredited) intel allegations were used by Cheney in his recent TV interview.....someone's lying or they're all loose cannons, or they got that personal agenda thing going, or something. Tenet got pushed by Kennedy......

[peterh]

15. Tenet’s answers reek of being disingenuous and aloof…..

When Tenet said policy-makers don't use precisely the same words as
intelligence analysts, Kennedy said, "I'm not talking about parsing words. We're
talking about words that are basically warmongering."
Kennedy asked if Tenet believed the administration had misrepresented facts to
justify the war.
"No, sir, I don't," Tenet said.
Though he generally did not discuss when he had spoken to administration
officials about their intelligence statements, Tenet said he contacted Cheney
after the vice president had said in an NPR interview in January that trailers
seized in Iraq probably were biological weapons labs. Intelligence agencies now
doubt that was the case.

Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., noted a Jan. 9 interview with the Rocky Mountain
News in which Cheney referred to a Weekly Standard article on links between
al-Qaida and Saddam Hussein. That article was based on a classified Defense
Department assessment that was later retracted by the Pentagon.
Tenet said he wasn't aware of Cheney's comments until Monday night. "I will
talk to him about that," he said.



Replacing this twit should be high on President Kerry’s agenda….

[0007]

20. " Tenet said he wasn't aware of Cheney's comments until Monday night."

Yeah, and he acted like watching, "Meet the Press," was beneath him. I fell out of my chair on that one.

[Aidoneus]

13. On that point he is correct, depending on how one defines it

With exception to the north (Kirkuk particularly), the war of resistance against the occupyers and their collaborators will be the only war there, for many years if it need be. If this could be considered as "civil war", then that is what it will be composed of. The mercenary gangs that the occupation forces hire to attempt the stirring up of sectarian trouble may make occasional waves, but the effects will not be lasting.

On the other hand, there is the Chicken Little mantra that if the sun rises a minute late tomorrow, there will be civil war....

[frank frankly]

14. what a relief!!! WHEW!!

I only hope that there are enough patriots in the CIA to save us from the traitors in the CIA.

the twillight zone
that must be Tenet's home

[teryang]

18. It is isn't a civil war...

It sure looks like one. Hundreds of Iraqis have been killed and wounded in the last several days alone. But no one appears to be keeping track of the deadly toll on Iraqi society, otherwise they would have to admit that chaos and anarchy prevail.

Why were Shia bombed at their holy places? Where are police often attacked and killed, almost regularly. The newspeak answer: because it isn't a civil war.

[loftycity]

19. Wanna take bets..with his track record...let's bet no

We win...again. If they Paid us DU'ers everytime we were right...
we'd be well better off. Skinner too!

[IndianaGreen]

22. George Tenet's record of predictions is second only to the great Criswell