Honduras: the devastating effects of the Coup
Friday, 4 December 2009, 10:01 am
Press Release: Council on Hemispheric Affairs
Honduras: the devastating effects of the June 28th coup on the Honduran economy are not likely to be undone by illegitimate elections
by COHA Research Associate Michaela D'Ambrosio
Whether one sides with the ousted President Manuel Zelaya or with the interim leader Roberto Micheletti, there is no denying the devastating impact of the June 28 anti-Zelaya coup d’etat on the Honduran economy. With the November 29 election of Porfirio ‘Pepe’ Lobo of the conservative Partido Nacional, backers of the status quo hope that Honduras can resolve its conflicts and begin a new path to economic recovery. However, even with Micheletti briefly stepping down during the election period to add much needed validity to the process, the legitimacy of the ballot and the integrity of Lobo are both ruinously compromised as the elections were held without Zelaya’s participation and thus carried out under an unlawful framework.
While Washington has troubled much of the world community by giving the de facto government the go ahead and recognizing the outcome of Sunday’s election, a majority of Latin American countries will not acknowledge Lobo as the legitimate winner of the presidential ballot. Hope for an economic recovery in the near future has been all but squandered unless Congress votes today to return Zelaya to office, which will allow him to hand over the Presidency to his successor in January.
Honduras, a country with a long history of extreme poverty and exploitation at the hands of a corrupt American-run banana industry, has developed a stable but patently unjust political environment, resulting in an attractive investment environment and a fairly prosperous tourism industry, but a shortage of social justices. The country still faces ominous development challenges, evidenced by a poverty rate of over 60%, an infant mortality level of 31 per 1,000 and chronic malnutrition cases of about one third of all children under five years of age. Traditional struggles over a fight for economic survival have been aggravated by the global economic downturn, as well as by Honduras’ ongoing political crisis. While, the country experienced a respectable economic growth rate of roughly 7% under Zelaya in the past two years, estimates project that it will shrink by 4.5% in 2009, most likely because of the worldwide suspension of aid and investment due to the coup. The ouster of President Zelaya plunged Honduras into a state of internal turmoil that has cost the country $50 million a day over the past five months, with a disproportionate burden falling on the country’s poor. If Lobo is successfully seated, he would need the backing of the international community to mend Honduras economy, support that he is currently lacking. It is easy to say that Honduras’ current economic strife is far from over.
Zelaya’s Economic Success—Not Appreciated by All
Since Zelaya took office in January 2006, Honduras experienced a gradual improvement in its social and economic indicators, including poverty reduction, a decrease in inequality, and increased educational and development opportunities. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in recent years showed some promise, growing by 6.6% in 2006 and 6.3% in 2007; however it declined in 2008 as a result of the world economic crisis. President Zelaya’s social and economic policies gradually decreased the number of households living in poverty from 65.8% in 2005 to 60.2% in 2007. Under Zelaya, several social initiatives increased educational opportunities, such as the abolition of school fees which resulted in about 450,000 more children attending school, while 25% more students are receiving free school lunches.
Zelaya’s gradual success in targeting reforms for the poor was far from appreciated by all, and his mounting interest in catering to the poor was increasingly resented by the country’s wealthy elite. Honduras is a country ruled by a small group of privileged figures who, in the absence of a large middle class, control almost every aspect of the government, economy and society. Historically, the ruling oligarchy chose the president and legislators in a political process that was driven by class factors. According to Ramon Romero, professor of economics at the National Autonomous University, power in Honduras is concentrated in the hands of about 100 people from approximately 25 different families. These elites originally supported Zelaya because he was one of them and represented their interests; but when he became increasingly sensitive to the injustice that afflicted Honduran public life, his former boosters turned on him as it became clear that he was breaking with tradition by implementing socially-conscious policies. This constituted a transformative shift in his support, winning him support from the poor, but resentment from the rich.
More:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO0912/S00046.htm
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