STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 7

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 7, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 4, 2009

Dow... 10,388.90 +22.75 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq... 2,194.35 +21.21 (+0.98%)
S&P 500... 1,105.98 +6.06 (+0.55%)
Gold future... 1,169 -49.30 (-4.05%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.48 +0.10 (+2.99%)
30-Year Bond 4.40 +0.07 (+1.55%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation by Tim W. Wood

Housing

The bottom line is that we should expect further weakness in this sector into early 2010.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

12. In Other Breaking News, Dog Bites Man

[Tansy_Gold]

30. And water is wet!

Rain is moving into Central Arizona so I may be able to prove this once and for all.





Tansy Gold, who had almost forgotten what rain even looked like until she woke up to some yesterday.

[Dr.Phool]

31. I forgot what snow looks like.

And I want to keep it that way.

edit: Don't type before you've had a sip of coffee.

[Roland99]

34. I'll drink to that!

[Ghost Dog]

54. Don't tempt me. Roland.

I dream of soft, even verging on the heavy, continuous prolonged rain.

The occasional 'showers' that fall this time of the year around here on this parched land at sea-level on the islands tend to be... heavens-open solid water... devastatingly destructive, unless you've taken serious private measures (I have, but sometimes I collect too much, and overflow the underground aljibes) from experience over the years. And to add insult to injury, the water tends to run straight off into the ocean, without soaking in (with politically-corrupted Spanish engineering unable to capture much of it for the common good by the way).

At least we can rely on the morning dew. :evilgrin:

Um. That was Grateful Dead.

This is Jeff Beck Group.

And, a bit more traditional (Jig/Lament)... Twa Corbies.

... ...

[Roland99]

57. Ah, gotta love Livin' With the Land

sorry for the Disney reference. :)


Was listening to some Guitar Shop earlier!

[Ghost Dog]

60. Yeah, I guess you need not to forget being in touch with the Land,

just as I need to not forget being in touch with the

Metropolis.

[Tansy_Gold]

36. We get some once or twice a year up on/in the mountains

And that's as close as I want to see it.

The tourists -- and some of the residents -- all flock to take pictures.



Tansy Gold, takin' the dogs out once more time before the rain gets here

[Ghost Dog]

56. You're only joking, Tansy?

Perry Como's Winter Wonderland: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laZdtffMevI
... :silly:

When icicles hang by the wall,
And Dick the shepherd blows his nail,
And Tom bears logs into the hall,
And milk comes frozen home in pail,
When blood is nipp'd, and ways be foul,
Then nightly sings the staring owl,
To-whit! To-who!—a merry note,
While greasy Joan doth keel the pot.

When all aloud the wind doe blow,
And coughing drowns the parson's saw,
And birds sit brooding in the snow,
And Marian's nose looks red and raw,
When roasted crabs hiss in the bowl,
Then nightly sings the staring owl,
To-whit! To-who!—a merry note,
While greasy Joan doth keel the pot.

- Love's Labour's Lost, V.ii; written circa 1593

/.. http://oldpoetry.com/opoem/show/52089-William-Shakespeare-Spring-And-Winter

[Tansy_Gold]

62. No, not joking at all.

I live in the shadow of Superstition Mountain, which is one block of the greater Superstition Mountains.

We get snow on Superstition Mountain once, maybe twice a year. It's so stunning that everyone gets out their cameras.

[Ghost Dog]

65. Sweet home Arizona.

(not joking either).

I see.

Here's an edited shot a took a while ago (from the air) of my neighbor:

[Tansy_Gold]

67. At the moment it's pouring rain

Nice winter female rain. The first real rain we've had since, oh, September, maybe August. I totally forget. We need it desperately.

Probably won't get cold enough for snow even up on top of the mountain, but at higher elevations -- Prescott, Flagstaff -- it probably will.

But if we get some white stuff up there on "my" mountain, I'll get some new pix.


Tansy Gold, shivering 'cause it's only about 50 F degrees outside

[DemReadingDU]

42. Snow flurries in Ohio

I'm ready for spring, already.

[Demeter]

44. The Ground Froze Hard Saturday Night

I am reminded of the song "Camelot"

It's true! It's true! The crown has made it clear.
The climate must be perfect all the year.

A law was made a distant moon ago here:
July and August cannot be too hot.
And there's a legal limit to the snow here
In Camelot.
The winter is forbidden till December
And exits March the second on the dot.
By order, summer lingers through September
In Camelot.
Camelot! Camelot!
I know it sounds a bit bizarre,
But in Camelot, Camelot
That's how conditions are.
The rain may never fall till after sundown.
By eight, the morning fog must disappear.
In short, there's simply not
A more congenial spot
For happily-ever-aftering than here
In Camelot.

Camelot! Camelot!
I know it gives a person pause,
But in Camelot, Camelot
Those are the legal laws.
The snow may never slush upon the hillside.
By nine p.m. the moonlight must appear.
In short, there's simply not
A more congenial spot
For happily-ever-aftering than here
In Camelot.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCtselIX4yg

So far, it's been a Camelot kind of year here in the best of states.

[amandabeech]

73. We had four inches of snow here in the northern DC suburbs on Saturday.

I'm originally from a snowbelt area in Michigan, so I know how to drive in the stuff. My Taurus does just great!

It's the lunatics around me that scare me to death. The locals are clueless and the many transplants from warm climates are less than clueless, and won't learn anything by emulating the locals. All of them should just follow cars with northern plates, and emulate the drivers' techniques.

Then you have those SUV drivers who think that they can drive just like they drive on a dry, sunny day. I always love to see them spun out on the shoulder or in the median a couple of miles later. Yer drivin' a truck, guys, not a Maserati!

Me, I just stay in until the stuff melts and the lunatics give up and go home.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

14:00 Consumer Credit Oct
Briefing.com -$11.6B
Consensus -$9.3B
Prior -$14.8B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Oil below $76 as OPEC ministers flag steady output

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered below $76 a barrel Monday in Asia after several OPEC ministers said they don't expect their group to change production levels at a meeting later this month.
.....

Top oil officials from Libya, Kuwait, Algeria and Qatar said Saturday that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies about 35 percent of the world's crude, will likely leave output levels unchanged at the group's next policy meeting on Dec. 22.
.....

In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil rose 0.97 cent to $2.04 and gasoline was steady at $1.98. Natural gas jumped 11.5 cents to $4.70 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Jobless professionals vie for holiday sales work

.....
Retailers report a surge in applications this year from professionals who had never applied for such jobs before.

"You'll find Wall Street stock brokers and small business owners trying to find temporary retail jobs during the holidays," said Ellen Davis, vice president of the National Retail Federation.

The pay is low, the jobs temporary. And the work is hardly equal to their experience or expertise. Yet the nation's unemployment crisis left these people jobless so much longer than they'd expected that many count themselves fortunate to have anything.
.....

The trend illustrates the despair of unemployed people with professional backgrounds who face a pitiless job market, said John Lonski, chief economist of Moody's Capital Markets Research Group. Even though the economy has begun growing again, employers aren't confident enough in the recovery or their own businesses to step up hiring.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091207/ap_on_bi_ge/us_unemployment_holiday_jobs

[Demeter]

11. Oh, I Don't Know

Making a hard sell for store credit cards to a strapped and hostile public sounds like what they've been doing all along.

[54anickel]

18. Good one!

[ozymandius]

21. I was offered a Target card application over the weekend.

As soon as those words left the cashier's lips I could not contain a guffaw, saying, "Oh goodness no!" (laughing). She laughed too and wished me a good evening.

I think most people "get it" now. Every store debt credit card should come with complimentary shackles.

[AnneD]

49. My standard reply....

No thanks, I am a cash and carry gal for 6 years now!

[Ghost Dog]

58. Letters to The Guardian, Dec 5, Re: Bankers:

All is well with the Hampstead bankers

I live in Hampstead, the banker's dormitory (Bankers told: join the real world on pay, 4 December). Here, all is well with the world, as they breathlessly anticipate their bonuses. The restaurants, bars and designer shops hum with international accents. The Filipino nannies walk the dogs, while the yummy mummies clog the streets with their 4x4s taking designer-togged toddlers to private prep schools. Little sign here of the devastation some of them have helped bring about in the lives of others; no sign at all of any remorse at having done so. How wonderful it would be to call their bluff and wave them off to France or Germany. It's time to lance the boil. Any political party which doesn't promise to wield the knife has no right to seek to represent the mass of the people of this country.

Alan Clark

London

/more... http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/dec/05/bankers-bonuses-public-spending-cuts

(imho, well said. But, Mr. Clark is (typical Brit) out of touch. "Wave them off to France or Germany"? No way. Let them suffer the likes of Dubai, at least, or even

Michigan.

[amandabeech]

76. Let them become urban pioneers in Detroit.

They'd really be well ahead of the trend wave if they did. Isn't that what they're looking for?

It might be something to tell the grandchildren.

[ozymandius]

5. US expects to recover most bank rescue money: report

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US Treasury Department expects to recover all but 42 billion dollars of the 370 billion it has lent to troubled US companies since the financial crisis began last year, The New York Times reported.

Citing a new yet unpublished Treasury report, the newspaper said the new assessment of the 700-billion-dollar bailout program was provided by two Treasury officials on Sunday ahead of a report to Congress on Monday.
.....

But the new estimates would lower the administration?s deficit forecast for this fiscal year, which began in October, to about 1.3 trillion dollars, down from 1.5 trillion, the paper said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091207/ts_alt_afp/useconomyfinancebankingbailout

[Po_d Mainiac]

25. What about the AIG bucks?? Guess that don't count :grr:

[Demeter]

45. Found money never does

[54anickel]

29. Did ya catch this one on the 700-billion dollar man?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7165785

<snip>

It was October 2008 when Hank Paulson announced that the government rescue operation, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), would be run by his aide, Neel Kashkari. The choice was met with considerable surprise. Who was Neel Kashkari? He was too young, too inexperienced and had ties to Wall Street, detractors said. To some, the appointment seemed all wrong. Critics described Paulson as a "Dr. Evil" figure who brainwashed Congress into giving him unprecedented financial authority so that Kashkari, his "Mini-Me," could distribute it to Wall Street friends.

Overnight, Kashkari became the face of the biggest, and one of the most controversial, market interventions in American history. Even he questioned their chances of success.

The Friday evening he was named, he slumped over a bowl of chips in Bethesda with a childhood friend. He held his head in hands and said: "Dude, tell me something funny."

"Man, what's going on, Neel?"

"I've been tapped to put TARP together. I gotta set up these seven teams and build this thing from scratch -- by Monday morning."

</snip>


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/04/AR2009120402016_3.html?hpid=artslot⊂&sid=ST2009120402037



Snip>

He rubs the scruff on his chin, and takes out his BlackBerry.

In Washington, he used his BlackBerry to determine the bailout sum presented to Congress. His arithmetic: "We have $11 trillion residential mortgages, $3 trillion commercial mortgages. Total $14 trillion. Five percent of that is $700 billion. A nice round number."

Looking back, he says, he is more confident about the two-by-sixes.

"Seven hundred billion was a number out of the air," Kashkari recalls, wheeling toward the hex nuts and the bolts. "It was a political calculus. I said, 'We don't know how much is enough. We need as much as we can get . What about a trillion?' 'No way,' Hank shook his head. I said, 'Okay, what about 700 billion?' We didn't know if it would work. We had to project confidence, hold up the world. We couldn't admit how scared we were, or how uncertain."

more...

[AnneD]

51. I alway figured he was selected......

because of his last name...Kash kari. But maybe I'm reading too much into it. It couldn't be THAT transparent, could it?

[54anickel]

75. That was the first thing I thought of. Paulson gets this memo from some unknown about wanting to

tag along and Paulson thinks, "Oh hell ya, with a name like that! It'll be a hoot!" :eyes:

[Ghost Dog]

69. Yeah. Nice-looking wife (sorry).

So he's writing a book (with Paulson),

and has contacts in the media...

And what, wants absolution?

[54anickel]

74. Sheeee-it GD, I never even looked at the slideshow! The article sort of made my

stomach queezy...like I'm supposed to feel sorry for this guy? Or beholden to him for what he did? Hell, I still think the whole TARP/bailout thing is going to result in some severe blowback. It's still nothing but a house of cards far as I'm concerned.

[Ghost Dog]

77. I did say, sorry. These are nice people. Leave them alone.

Just go after the real perps.

Hell.

[54anickel]

78. Wasn't implying anything about them personally - the guy was used, plain and simple. Just the whole

story reeks. Not blaming him for what happened, but I just can't really muster much sympathy for what he's been through either...yet that's what the article seemed to be looking for. I suppose we're all guilty in some respects...



Just as every cop is a criminal
And all the sinners saints
As heads is tails just call me Lucifer
I'm in need of some restraint

So if you meet me, have some courtesy
Have some sympathy and some taste
Use all your well learned politics
Or I'll lay your soul to waste, mmm yeah

Pleased to meet you
Hope you guess my name, mmm yeah
But what's puzzling you
Is the nature of my game, get down
Woo hoo, ah yeah, get on down, oh yeah

[Ghost Dog]

80. I was thinking: were actual real nasty civil war to break out in the USA,

who would send some International Brigades to elp out the goof, sorry, god, sorry good (sticky keyboard) guys?






































http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpNoniDH6IY

[Demeter]

82. God Helps Those Who Help Themselves

Sorry, 29 years in exile in New England--the Puritanism tends to rub off on one.

Of course, for those who DID help themselves ("And pretty freely, too!" as the Queen of the Fairies exclaimed to the House of Lords in Iolanthe) there's no man or god gonna help them. Not with Blackwater's Prince self-destructing before our eyes....

and Ghostbusters isn't going to be much help.

[Tansy_Gold]

86. At this point, GD, I don't think anyone would help us

And I can't say as I'd blame 'em for stayin' home and lettin' us fight our own battles for a change.

Thing is, no one needs us any more, and we haven't figured that one out yet.


Tansy Gold, who is in a very very very nasty mood tonight

[Ghost Dog]

89. I'm not sure anyone would dare, from outside...

But I sure as hell am hearing, heartfelt, from many cultural origins, from many walks of life, over here, north and south, east and west,

that we'd hate to lose your brave, intelligent liberty (nutjobs excepted).

[Tansy_Gold]

92. I could get all mushy patriotic on you over that

but I won't.

I'll go to a little party insteady, where everyone is to the right of me, some just slightly and some faaaaaar right of me, but it'll be okay.




TG

[Ghost Dog]

93. Well, in spite of all the reasons to criticise,

counting our dead, you understand.

Party. Make hay while you may.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6aCMgy0ES4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgVBuriy1g4

[54anickel]

90. Nice clip - thank you! I'm coveting that coat Mick's wearing too!

[ozymandius]

6. Government official: Dubai World may sell assets

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Dubai World, the indebted conglomerate at the heart of this sheikdom's credit problems, may sell off assets it acquired during a multiyear building and buying spree to raise cash, according to a senior government official.

Dubai Finance Department Director-General Abdul Rahman al-Saleh did not say which pieces of the company are for sale in an interview posted on al-Jazeera's Web site Monday. However, he emphasized that the assets in question would be the company's, and not those held by the government of Dubai.
.....

The sale of any major Dubai World assets would mark a shift for the conglomerate, which repeatedly downplayed questions it would need to unload pieces of its global empire even as Dubai's financial concerns grew more acute over the past year.
.....

The company runs the world's fourth-biggest seaport operator, DP World, with operations on six continents. Its wide-ranging investment portfolio includes luxury retailer Barney's New York, a stable of high-end U.S. hotels, and stakes in Las Vegas casino operator MGM Mirage and Cirque du Soleil.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jgIwsGJtixo-F6a2j5e8hebIbaEwD9CEDE3G0

[Demeter]

9. Ah Yes, I remember Bush selling off the ports to foreigners, or trying to

now we know why.

This crash was anticipated a long time ago. Planned, even. Designed to stroke a middle Eastern ego.

[willing dwarf]

27. Wow, I didn't put that together...

very interesting point. Have you come across any articles that analyze the relationship between Dubai world, the ports deal and the Bush people?
Sickening, isn't it?

[Tansy_Gold]

47. Yeah, there was some stuff here on DU over the week-end

Not sure what thread, but IIRC Dubai Ports -- to which booosh was gonna hand-over control/operation of our ports -- is a division of Dubai World.

I could be wrong, but I think that's the way it was explained. NO ONE however mentioned that the operation of US ports could just as easily have been in the hands of a bankrupt sheikh.

Makes that photo of boooosh kissin' up to the Saudi prince even creepier, don't it?




TG

[Demeter]

84. I'm Sure There Was Something In It For Bush

and probably some massive pothole for the emir, too.

I wonder if W bought the island of Texas? Bet he could get it cheaply now.

[Hugin]

13. Kuwait Investment Fund Sells Citigroup Stake for $4.1 Billion

By Fiona MacDonald and Poppy Trowbridge

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Kuwait Investment Authority, the nation’s sovereign-wealth fund, sold its stake in Citigroup Inc. for $4.1 billion after helping the U.S. bank boost capital amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

The fund converted preferred securities of Citigroup that it purchased for $3 billion last year into common shares and sold them, making a profit of $1.1 billion, KIA said in an e- mailed statement today.

The transaction “will be a confidence-booster,” said M.R. Raghu, head of research at Kuwait Financial Center, a Kuwait- based investment bank, in a telephone interview. “It looks to be good news, making a profit in these times.”

Sovereign wealth funds are selling investments in financial stocks as they seek to reduce risk and address domestic criticism over investment priorities. The funds, fueled in part by oil revenue, had become sources of capital around the world for companies including Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, helping them to withstand the credit market seizure that followed the collapse of U.S. subprime mortgages.

More here... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a15zye5r9w9Q&pos=2

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Very interesting... Especially keeping in mind the events in Dubai and the next article I'm going to post.

[Hugin]

15. Treasury Said to Link Citigroup Sale to TARP Payback (Update1)

By Bradley Keoun

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury Department aims to hold off on selling its 34 percent stake in Citigroup Inc. until the bank and regulators agree on a broader plan to repay all obligations remaining from last year’s $45 billion government bailout, a person close to the department said.

Treasury officials are concerned that a sale now of its 7.7 billion shares in the New York-based bank may weaken investor demand should Citigroup subsequently be required to raise capital as a condition of exiting the bailout program, said the person, who declined to be identified because the government hasn’t publicly discussed the plans.

Citigroup executives have pressed Treasury for at least three months to sell the stake as a first step toward leaving the bailout program, according to people familiar with the matter. They want to escape government-imposed pay limits that may make the company vulnerable to employee-poaching by unfettered rivals. Bank of America Corp., the only other large U.S. bank under pay limits, last week announced a plan to exit the program.

“This should be well thought-out for the benefit of all constituencies, and in this case that includes shareholders, the government and the taxpayers,” said Dennis Santiago, chief executive officer of analysis firm Institutional Risk Analytics in Torrance, California. “Just because Bank of America goes doesn’t mean you have to rush Citigroup.”

More here (Including a picture of Timmeh for his fans) ... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akkvblzbDFxA&pos=1

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Things what make one go... Hmm.

[kickysnana]

43. Bankruptcy courts usually break all union contracts. n/t

[Demeter]

7. Cartoon Reminds Me of the Fall of Saigon, Somehow

Maybe it's the public outing of national failure...

I can't take too much reality on the national level right now...I read through the Top 10 Conservative Idiots and nearly fainted from the lack of intelligence.

Normally, people become warmer, more tolerant and loving at holiday time. Not this year, apparently.

[ozymandius]

10. I've missed the Top Ten over the past few weeks.

I think I'll go have a look.

That was just nasty. And creepy.

[54anickel]

33. EEK! EGADS!!! That pic! Are they cloning her now? Ugh, the stoopid just burns!

[Ghost Dog]

70. The 'girls' alwways tend to do that.

A while ago, they mostly all tended to look a bit like (Princess) Diana, around here.

[AnneD]

52. Demeter.....

It's time to let Saigons be bygones and get on with your life. :evilgrin: :hide:






Boy I never though I'd get to use THAT one twice. HEHEHE

[Demeter]

83. Let Me Get My Wet Noodle

such a terrible pun! You should be ashamed of yourself!

[ozymandius]

8. Asian Shares End Mixed; Resource Stocks Tumble

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Resource stocks were a major weak spot Monday in the Asian stock markets after gold posted its first weekly loss since the end of October, but Japanese exporters extended their rally following the yen's recent losses.

Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 1.5% higher, South Korea's Kospi Composite and the Shanghai Composite index each added 0.5% and Taiwan's Taiex climbed 1.6%, but Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.6%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index shed 0.8%.
.....

A favorable U.S. nonfarm payroll report "resulted in elevated expectations of U.S. rate hikes" sending Hong Kong, the most sensitive market, lower, analysts at the Royal Bank of Scotland said in a note to clients. "Whether the elevated expectations for U.S. rate hikes materialize or not, equity returns will become more concentrated in countries where earnings expectations are likely to be met -- key amongst these are China, India, Indonesia and Korea," they said.

Elsewhere in the region, New Zealand's NZX-50 shed 0.3% and Philippine shares fell 0.5%. Singapore's Straits Times Index was up 0.2%, and India's Sensex lost 0.8%. Thailand's markets were closed for a holiday.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091207-702587.html?mod=rss_Global_Stocks

[Demeter]

14. Veteran of S&L crisis sees gold in toxic assets (April, 2009--Where Is he now?)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLNE53502H20090406

The U.S. Treasury's toxic assets clean-up plan is the greatest market opportunity since the savings & loan crisis, says veteran investor Bill Bartmann.

Hedge Funds

He should know: Bartmann made a fortune snapping up distressed loans from the wreckage of failed savings banks some 18 years ago.

"The current crisis is creating a whole new playing field and, with that, a whole new opportunity," Bartmann said in an interview. "It's going to be a bigger opportunity this time than last crisis."

Bartmann's Commercial Financial Services was among the first to purchase distressed assets from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp and the Resolution Trust Co following the failure of some 2,500 thrifts in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Now, Treasury's plan to help private fund managers purchase securities and loans from struggling banks has inspired the Tulsa, Oklahoma, businessman to dust off his Rolodex, assemble his partners and raise a $1 billion (670 million pounds) fund from wealthy investors and hedge funds.

Bartmann, who is 60, said his fund would purchase consumer loans from struggling banks through the public-private investment partnership. With a matching co-investment from Treasury and as much as six-to-one leverage through FDIC-backed bonds, Bartmann could purchase up to $14 billion in loans.

Several major fund managers, such as Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, have poked holes in the government plan and said they will not participate. Yet Bartmann argues Treasury may finally have found the tool that will revive banks and put the economy back on its feet.

"It's a great opportunity for us to finally get back on the road to recovery, but we can't get there until we admit we have some really bad loans stinking up the books of our financial institutions," he said. "This is going to be their chance to purge."

CONSUMER DEBTS

In the last crisis, Bartmann said his closely held firm bought 4.5 million loans with a book value of $15 billion from 800 failed banks. Bartmann packaged these loans into $3 billion of asset-backed securities that were then sold into the market, raising cash to finance new purchases.

This time around, Bartmann hopes to have his fund in place and ready to invest within two months. The fund, he said, would target credit card loans and other consumer assets.

The government, he explained, also needs to act quickly.

Commercial real estate losses, expected to rise as the recession drags on, have only begun to impact results, he said. Indeed, without the toxic-assets plan, Bartmann estimates some 500 banks could go bust.

Treasury, he said, will help banks unload problem assets and boost capital so they resume lending and help fuel the economy, he said. The cleansing process will also restore investor confidence in banks.

"What the FDIC is telling 8,300 banks is, 'Gentleman, we have a bad loan amnesty program,'" he said. "They're saying, 'Give us your bad loans, pull them out from their hiding places, all those loans you've been in denial about or trying to defend, and we will let you disgorge them.'"

Bartmann, who in the 1980s struck it rich investing in Oklahoma oil wells, said inspiration for the new fund came last fall. That's when then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

The TARP ultimately became a capital- injection plan, but the government has followed up with a series of taxpayer-funded bailouts. Yet current Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's toxic-assets plan, announced last month, served to reassure Bartmann that his investment plan was the right idea at the ideal time.

"We saw the TARP as a wonderful opportunity," he said. "Little did we know there was $2 trillion more right behind it. This is wonderful squared."

BARTMANN IS A PRODUCT OF HIS OWN CREATION, APPARENTLY--THE SELF-MADE, SELF-PROMOTING KIND. AND A FOX NEWS REGULAR.

[54anickel]

94. "I Was A Loser, Baby, So Why Don't You Pay Me?" - THAT Bill Bartmann?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_18/b4032066.htm

snip>

This is Bill Bartmann's come-on, his preamble, the most concise explanation he can offer for why he became a billionaire and those listening to him haven't even come close. On a Saturday in September, a couple dozen people, mostly entrepreneurs, of their own volition or at the urging of frustrated spouses and business partners, have paid $49 to attend a daylong motivational seminar with Bartmann at the Reno-Sparks Convention Center in Nevada.

None are familiar with his name. Bartmann, 58, made (and lost) his fortune in the debt collection business, and both his rise and fall brought him to national attention, if fleetingly. He was well-known in the financial world and in the business schools that studied his then-pioneering approaches to raising money; in Tulsa, where he was among the biggest employers; and in certain Las Vegas casinos, where he was a regular at the blackjack tables. But few outside those circles would have followed his tumultuous career.

"Why am I an authority? Because I've lived it. I've seen both sides of self-esteem. I went from poverty and welfare to being the 25th-wealthiest person in America. I went from being a high-school dropout to becoming a lawyer. I went from working at a traveling carnival to being named National Entrepreneur of the Year. I went from being a million dollars in debt to a billion dollars to the good. I learned how to change. I went through a significant, some say remarkable, transformation."

Bill Bartmann's career has been one of seized opportunities: oil in the 1980s, consumer debt in the 1990s, and now, in the age of Oprah, inspiration. Motivation, in all its guises, has become a $10 billion industry even as its very premise--that its advice can change lives--remains unproven. Companies spend close to $3 billion a year to hire people, among them former executives, sports coaches, and survivors of all kinds, to inspire and train employees; books ranging from The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People to The Millionaire Next Door are on BusinessWeek's list of longtime best-sellers.

snip>

HITTING BOTTOM
By then CFS had become the world's largest holder of bad consumer debt; unlike its competitors it owned the debt outright and was trying to collect on some $14.5 billion. A few skeptics wondered at the company's rapid growth; by many accounts its revenues had doubled every year since 1994. When Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS ) proposed taking the company public the summer of 1998, CFS was reckoned to be worth $3 billion.

Four months later, credit agencies received an anonymous one-page letter accusing CFS of shady dealings. Bartmann would eventually be indicted on 57 federal counts of fraud, conspiracy, and money laundering related to an alleged scheme to make the company's collection rate appear higher than it was. After an 89-day trial in 2003, he was acquitted of all the charges against him (his partner, Jay L. Jones, pleaded guilty to conspiracy and served 3 1/2 years of a five-year prison term). It took Bartmann until 2006 to contend with various civil suits, and during that time he declared bankruptcy. He and Kathy had to give up 19 acres of their 20-acre estate. They lived off credit cards, borrowing from their two daughters when they had to.

more...Interesting comment section as well

[Demeter]

95. Excellent Research! I Had Looked, but Not Found That

We at SMW make a good team, you know?

[54anickel]

96. R & D used to be my "vocation" - old habits. Thanks. SMW has always had the best teams!

One stop shop for market info.

[54anickel]

16. OMG, these headlines at INO this morning just crack me up! Don't mean to steal UIAs thunder here,

but check these out...

- German October Factory Orders Fall 8.5% On Year, Consensus 6.2% Decline ...
German October Factory Orders Down 2.1% On Month, Consensus 0.8% Rise

- German October Factory Orders Down 2.1% On Month, Consensus 0.8% Rise ...
European markets drop as dollar surge continues

European stock markets fell Monday as the dollar jumped to a five week high against the euro amid improved expectations about the pace of recovery in the world's largest economy. The euro was down 0.4 percent at $1.4797, having earlier fallen to $1.4757, its lowest level since early November. Before Friday's news that U.S. employers shed a much lower than anticipated 11,000 jobs in November and the unemployment unexpectedly fell to 10 percent, the euro was trading near its 16-month high of $1.5144....
:eyes:

[ozymandius]

20. Wha...?

Jeebus! How could they have been so wrong? I get the monthly and annual differences. But didn't Germany trumpet great gains recently? I wonder how that slavish dependence on their export based economic model is helping their confidence and bottom line?

[54anickel]

24. But the US is "surging" Oz, we're sizzlin' hot! At least according to the bit of

blather posted there. The headline seems to imply EU is tanking because the dollar is "taking off". Oh yeah, it's soaring like a turkey!

Since when are economies/markets driven by the buck? Here I thought it was the other way around. :silly: Still looks to me as though we've lost a hell of a lot of purchasing power, regardless.

[AnneD]

55. Our theme for today......

That great American Classic.....Old Turkey Buzzard

Old Turkey Buzzard
Old Turkey Buzzard
Flying, flying high

He's just awaiting
Buzzard's just awaiting
Waiting for something down below to die
Old buzzard knows that he can wait

'Cause every mother's son has got a date
- a date with fate, with fate
He sees men come he sees men go
crawling like ants on the rocks below
The men who scheme, the men who dream and
die for gold on the rocks below

Gold, gold, gold
They just got to have that
Gold, gold, gold
They'll do anything for gold

snip

Old Turkey Buzzard
Old Turkey Buzzard
Flying, flying high

snip

[Ghost Dog]

71. (You're not supposed to pay any attention to Europe)

(As if it matters).

Oh, Fuck!

[Tansy_Gold]

81. (it matters)

(a lot)

[Ghost Dog]

87. Ummmgnffft. n/t

:hug:

[Tansy_Gold]

88. Okay, I know it's not Spanish or French, so it must be

Basque? Catalan?

:hug: back atcha

[54anickel]

91. Awww, I'm sorry GD. I wasn't trumpeting the EU bad news, it was the

last headline of the 3 trying to tie EU's misfourtunes to the buck - like it's all because the dollar is up or something.

[Demeter]

17. The Lessons of the Savings-and-Loan Crisis William Black

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123940701204709985.html#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1

By JACK WILLOUGHBY

AN INTERVIEW WITH WILLIAM BLACK: The current bank scandal dwarfs the 1980s savings-and-loan crisis -- and could destroy the Obama presidency.


WILLIAM BLACK CALLS THEM AS HE SEES THEM, which is why we enjoy talking with him. Black, 57 years old, was a deputy director at the former Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corp. during the thrift crisis of the 1980s, and now serves as an associate professor, teaching economics and law at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. At FSLIC, a government agency that insured S&L deposits, Black prevailed in showdowns with the powerful Democratic Speaker of the House, Jim Wright, and helped identify the infamous Keating Five, a group of U.S. senators (including Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who lost his bid for the presidency in 2008) who tried to quash his attempt to close Charles Keating's Lincoln Savings & Loan. Wright eventually resigned amid unrelated ethics charges, and the senators were reprimanded for poor judgment. Keating went to jail for securities fraud.
Ron Berg for Barron's

"It's like Gresham's law: Bad money drives out the good. Well, bad behavior drives out good behavior, without good enforcement." –William Black

For Black's provocative thoughts on the current financial crisis, read on.

Barron's: Just how serious is this credit crisis? What is at stake here for the American taxpayer?

Black: Mopping up the savings-and-loan crisis cost $150 billion; this current crisis will probably cost a multiple of that. The scale of fraud is immense. This whole bank scandal makes Teapot Dome look like some kid's doll set. Unless the current administration changes course pretty drastically, the scandal will destroy Barack Obama's presidency. The Bush administration was even worse. But they are out of town. This will destroy Obama's administration, both economically and in terms of integrity.

So you are saying Democrats as well as Republicans share the blame? No one can claim the high ground?

We have failed bankers giving advice to failed regulators on how to deal with failed assets. How can it result in anything but failure? If they are going to get any truthful investigation, the Democrats picked the wrong financial team. Tim Geithner, the current Secretary of the Treasury, and Larry Summers, chairman of the National Economic Council, were important architects of the problems. Geithner especially represents a failed regulator, having presided over the bailouts of major New York banks.

So you aren't a fan of the recently announced plan for the government to back private purchases of the toxic assets?

It is worse than a lie. Geithner has appropriated the language of his critics and of the forthright to support dishonesty. That is what's so appalling -- numbering himself among those who convey tough medicine when he is really pandering to the interests of a select group of banks who are on a first-name basis with Washington politicians.

The current law mandates prompt corrective action, which means speedy resolution of insolvencies. He is flouting the law, in naked violation, in order to pursue the kind of favoritism that the law was designed to prevent. He has introduced the concept of capital insurance, essentially turning the U.S. taxpayer into the sucker who is going to pay for everything. He chose this path because he knew Congress would never authorize a bailout based on crony capitalism.

Geithner is mistaken when he talks about making deeply unpopular moves. Such stiff resolve to put the major banks in receivership would be appreciated in every state but Connecticut and New York. His use of language like "legacy assets" -- and channeling the worst aspects of Milton Friedman -- is positively Orwellian. Extreme conservatives wrongly assume that the government can't do anything right. And they wrongly assume that the market will ultimately lead to correct actions. If cheaters prosper, cheaters will dominate. It is like Gresham's law: Bad money drives out the good. Well, bad behavior drives out good behavior, without good enforcement.

His plan essentially perpetuates zombie banks by mispricing toxic assets that were mispriced to the borrower and mispriced by the lender, and which only served the unfaithful lending agent.

We already know from the real costs -- through the cleanups of IndyMac, Bear Stearns, and Lehman -- that the losses will be roughly 50 to 80 cents on the dollar. The last thing we need is a further drain on our resources and subsidies by promoting this toxic-asset market. By promoting this notion of too-big-to-fail, we are allowing a pernicious influence to remain in Washington. The truth has a resonance to it. The folks know they are being lied to.

I keep asking myself, what would we do in other avenues of life? What if every time we had a plane crash we said: 'It might be divisive to investigate. We want to be forward-looking.' Nobody would fly. It would be a disaster.

We know that with planes, every time there is an accident, we look intensively, without the interference of politics. That is why we have such a safe industry.

Summarize the problem as best you can for Barron's readers.

With most of America's biggest banks insolvent, you have, in essence, a multitrillion dollar cover-up by publicly traded entities, which amounts to felony securities fraud on a massive scale.

These firms will ultimately have to be forced into receivership, the management and boards stripped of office, title, and compensation. First there needs to be a clearing of the air -- a Pecora-style fact-finding mission conducted without fear or favor. Then, we need to gear up to pursue criminal cases. Two years after the market collapsed, the Federal Bureau of Investigation has one-fourth of the resources that the agency used during the savings-and-loan crisis. And the current crisis is 10 times as large.

There need to be major task forces set up, like there were in the thrift crisis. Right now, things don't look good. We are using taxpayer money via AIG to secretly bail out European banks like Société Générale, Deutsche Bank, and UBS -- and even our own Goldman Sachs. To me, the single most obscene act of this scandal has been providing billions in taxpayer money via AIG to secretly bail out UBS in Switzerland, while we were simultaneously prosecuting the bank for tax fraud. The second most obscene: Goldman receiving almost $13 billion in AIG counterparty payments after advising Geithner, president of the New York Fed, and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, former Goldman Sachs honcho, on the AIG government takeover -- and also receiving government bailout loans.

What, then, is staying the federal government's hand? Have the banks become too difficult or complex to regulate?

The government is reluctant to admit the depth of the problem, because to do so would force it to put some of America's biggest financial institutions into receivership. The people running these banks are some of the most well-connected in Washington, with easy access to legislators. Prompt corrective action is what is needed, and mandated in the law. And that is precisely what isn't happening.

The savings-and-loan crisis showed that, too often, the regulators became too close to the industry, and run interference for friends by hiding the problems.

Can you explain your idea of control fraud, and how it applies to the current banking and the earlier thrift crisis?

Control fraud is when a seemingly legitimate corporation uses its power as a weapon to defraud or take something of value through deceit.

In the savings-and-loan crisis, thrifts engaged in control frauds in order to survive. Accounting trickery proved to be the weapon of choice. It is at work today with the banks, and it is their Achilles heel. You report that you are highly profitable when you engage in accounting-control fraud, not only meeting but exceeding capital requirements. These accounting frauds create huge bubbles, which in turn create large bonuses, which in turn lead to huge losses.

Why then is there so much smoke and so little action?

First, they are inundated by the problem. They are trying to investigate the major problems with severely depleted staffs. Honestly. We have lost the ability to be blunt. Now we have a situation where Treasury Secretary Geithner can speak of a $2 trillion hole in the banking system, at the same time all the major banks report they are well-capitalized. And you have seen no regulatory action against what amounts to a $2 trillion accounting fraud. The reason we don't see it -- aren't told about it -- is that if they were honest, prompt corrective action would kick in, and they would have to deal with the problem banks.

Are there any parallels between the current crisis and the savings-and-loan crisis that give you hope?

Of course. Objectively, our case was even more hopeless in the S&L debacle than in the current crisis. If we were able to do it in such an impossible circumstance back then, we have reason for hope in the current crisis. I know how easily things can get off course and how quickly things can turn back again. The thrift crisis went through several lengthy courses and distortions before it finally was resolved under the leadership of Edwin Gray, the chairman of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, which oversaw FSLIC.

We went through almost a decade of cover-ups by a Washington establishment intent on helping thrift owners. Back then, we had the Justice Department threatening to indict Gray, the head of a federal agency, for closing too many thrifts. Next, there were those so-called resolutions, where the regulators worked day and night -- to create even bigger problems for the FSLIC. Years later, these so-called resolution deals had to be unwound at great expense by closing down even larger failures. Or how about the bill to replenish the depleted thrift-insurance fund that was blocked and delayed by then-Speaker of the House, Texas congressman Jim Wright?

You say the evidence of a breakdown in the regulatory structure comes from the fact that America avoided an earlier subprime crisis in the 1990s.

Exactly. Why had no one heard of the subprime crisis back in 1991? Because America's regulators also faced down the crisis early. The same thing happened with bad credits being securitized in the secondary market. Remember the low-doc or no-doc mortgages done by Citibank? Well, the problem didn't spread -- because regulators intervened.

Obama, who is doing so well in so many other arenas, appears to be slipping because he trusts Democrats high in the party structure too much.

These Democrats want to maintain America's pre-eminence in global financial capitalism at any cost. They remain wedded to the bad idea of bigness, the so-called financial supermarket -- one-stop shopping for all customers -- that has allowed the American financial system to paper the world with subprime debt. Even the managers of these worldwide financial conglomerates testify that they have become so sprawling as to be unmanageable.

What needs to be done?

Well, these international behemoths need to be broken down into smaller units that can be managed effectively. Maybe they can be broken up the way that the Standard Oil split up back in the early 1900s, through a simple share spinoff.

The big problem for the last decade is that we have had too much capacity in the finance sector -- too many banks have represented a drain on our talent and resources. All these mergers haven't taken capacity out of the system. They have created even bigger banks that concentrate risk to the taxpayer, and put off dealing with problems.

And a new seriousness must be put into regulation. We don't necessarily need new rules. We just need folks who can enforce the ones already on the books.

The bank-compensation system also creates an environment that leads to mismanagement and fraud. No one has to tell someone they have to stretch the numbers. It is all around them. It is in the rank-or-yank performance and retention systems advocated by top business executives. Here, the top 20% get the bulk of the benefits and the bottom 10% get fired. You don't directly tell your employees you want them to lie and cheat. You set up an atmosphere of results at any cost. Rank or yank. Sooner rather than later, someone comes up with the bright idea of fudging the numbers. That's big bonuses for the folks who make the best numbers. It sends the message -- making the numbers is what is most important. There is a reason that the average tenure of a chief financial officer is three years.

Compensation systems like I have just described discourage whistleblowing -- the most common way that frauds are found in America -- because the system draws upon the cooperation of everyone.

The basis for all regulation and white-collar crime is to take the competitive advantage away from the cheats, so the good guys can prevail. We need to get back to that.

Thanks, Bill.

[DemReadingDU]

26. Black has been quite vocal about the insolvent banks

He has a blog that I noted last Friday
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4170630&mesg_id=4170783

[Festivito]

19. Debt: 12/03/2009 12,087,361,675,014.75 (DOWN 3,463,328,355.51) (Thu)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,709,701,348,736.40 + 4,377,660,326,278.35
UP 2,787,837,042.67 + DOWN 6,251,165,398.18

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,107,038 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,231.05.
A family of three owes $117,693.14. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,179,526,787.32.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,625,668,751.13.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 44 reports in 64 days of FY2010 averaging 4.03B$ per report, 2.77B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,144 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/03/2009 12,087,361,675,014.75 BHO (UP 1,460,484,626,101.67 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,177,532,671,503.00 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,012,491,017,165.55 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********

121,327,415,698.11 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4170630&mesg_id=4170695

[Festivito]

64. Debt: 12/04/2009 12,087,444,121,549.05 (UP 82,446,534.30) (Fri)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,709,911,899,968.76 + 4,377,532,221,580.29
UP 210,551,232.36 + DOWN 128,104,698.06

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,115,678 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,230.21.
A family of three owes $117,690.64. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,166,209,463.00.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,616,346,624.10.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 45 reports in 65 days of FY2010 averaging 3.95B$ per report, 2.73B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,143 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/04/2009 12,087,444,121,549.05 BHO (UP 1,460,567,072,635.97 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,177,615,118,037.30 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,997,377,201,286.38 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********

115,901,987,507.89 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4173839&mesg_id=4173871

[ozymandius]

22. Market Hesitant, Futures Point to Mixed Open

Stock index futures are pointing to a mixed opening, with the broader market set to open slightly higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq futures pointing lower.

Wall Street comes off two consecutive winning weeks as investors head towards what's likely to be the best year for the stock market since 2003. It should be noted that 2008 was one of the worst years in stock market history, but many investors point out that in mid-March, it still appeared that the market was on its way to another year of considerable losses.
.....

Only one economic number is on the schedule for today and that doesn't come until 3 pm, when the government issues consumer credit figures for October. Economists think outstanding credit shrank by $10 billion during the month, compared with a drop of $14.8 billion in September.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34308832

[ozymandius]

23. Ben Bernanke needs friends.

Three Strikes on Ben Bernanke: AIG, Goldman Sachs & BAC/TARP

Three Strikes on Ben Bernanke: AIG, Goldman Sachs & BAC/TARP
December 7, 2009

.....
To us, the confirmation hearings last week before the Senate Banking Committee only reaffirm in our minds that Benjamin Shalom Bernanke does not deserve a second term as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Including our comments on Bank of America (BAC) featured by Alan Abelson this week in Barron’s, we have three reasons for this view:


First is the law. The bailout of American International Group (AIG) was clearly a violation of the Federal Reserve Act, both in terms of the “loans” made to the insolvent insurer and the hideous process whereby the loans were approved, after the fact, by Chairman Bernanke and the Fed Board. The loans were not adequately collateralized. This is publicly evidenced by the fact that the Fed of New York (FRBNY) exchanged debt claims on AIG itself for equity stakes in two insolvent insurance underwriting units. What more need be said?
.....

Martin Mayer reminded us last week that the Fed is meant to be “independent” from the White House, not the Congress from which its legal authority comes by way of the Constitution. Nor does Fed independence mean that the officers of the Federal Reserve Banks or the Board are allowed to make laws. None of the officials of the Fed are officers of the United States. No Fed official has any power to make commitments on behalf of the Treasury, unless and except when directed by the Secretary. Given the losses to the Treasury due to the Fed’s own losses, this is an important point that members of the Senate need to investigate further.


The FRBNY not only used but abused the Fed’s power’s under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. In AIG, the FRBNY under Tim Geithner invoked the “unusual and exigent” clause again and again, but there is a serious legal question whether the then-FRBNY President and the FRBNY’s board had the right to commit trillions without any due diligence process or deliberate, prior approval of the Fed Board in Washington, as required by law. The financial commitments to GS and other dealers regarding AIG were made always on a weekend with Geithner “negotiating” alone in New York, while Chairman Bernanke, Vice Chairman Donald Kohn and the rest of the BOG were sitting in DC without any real financial understanding of the substance of the transactions or the relationships between the people involved in the negotiations.

more at link...

[Tansy_Gold]

28. There's always Facebook. . . . .

(I have never been on Facebook, have no "friends" there, have not responded to requests from others to become their "friend." a real live friend said it's a time-sucker, and I don't have any time left to be sucked!)


TG

[DemReadingDU]

38. My daughter invited me

Now I'm friends with her, my son, his wife, a couple others. But that is all I can keep up with. One of my nieces has 634 friends! Who has that kind of time???

[54anickel]

39. I'm thinking "friends" might be stretching it, or perhaps these on-line

communities like Facebook have redefined the term. I tried for a while, but just didn't see trying to keep up as the best use of my time. Though I have to admit it's a great tool for locating people from your past - assuming they are on there and want to be located....I was traveling pretty much incognito.

[Tansy_Gold]

40. Well, see, that's another reason for avoiding Facebook

I don't WANT to find anyone (else) from my past, and I REALLY don't want them to find me.



Tansy Gold, who found the only person that mattered and is now having second thoughts. . . . .

[DemReadingDU]

41. more like a friend of a friend of a friend

It seems to be used for communicating tidbits of useless information primarily by young women.
Not beneficial to me at all. I much prefer to read the SMW!

[Dr.Phool]

53. I tried it a couple of weeks ago.

It seems really stupid. Now I see why Sarah Palin spends so much time on it. I canceled the account after about a week. The first thing I noticed was that it brought up a whole bunch of people I know, with pictures, who didn't even have facebook accounts, asking if I wanted to make them friends.

Then there were friends of friends, and people I've never heard of, wanting to be friends. Overall, the couple of days I tried it, it was a dumb experience. With some severe privacy issues.

[Dr.Phool]

32. Give yourselves a Xmas present.

If you live anywhere within a days drive of wherever the Trans-Siberian Orchestra is playing, DO IT! You'll only regret it if you don't. We had tickets for last years performance, and I had to go up to South Carolina for an emergency, and I missed it. Now, I'm pissed.

We went to see them yesterday for the 3:00pm show. I wanted to buy tickets to see it again at 8:00.

AWESOME!!!!!

Now, little Sara Sweetface knows it's park time, and is bugging the shit out of me. Later.

[Roland99]

35. I settled for (sorta free...already paid the annual pass fee) Disney this weekend. I might be on TV!

They were filming the Christmas Parade at the Magic Kingdom.

My daughter got *this* close to touching the Jonas Brothers so there's a chance her short little self will be see on Christmas morning. In the meantime, yours truly was dancing in the street in front of a float with Mickey and Minnie on it. OMG I'm sure I'll look like a complete buffoon! But it was fun.


:)

[Dr.Phool]

37. I was over there last week.

I had to pick up my dad, and drop him back off at Orlando-Sanford airport. That was just the start of the Week From Hell.

[Roland99]

50. Sorry to hear that

That's where I typically send my daughter back up to Ky from. It's about 10 min away and cheaper out of there.

[Demeter]

46. Christmas Came Early! Five AIG execs say may quit over pay: report

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34309703/ns/business-us_business/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Tansy_Gold]

48. Oh, I'm sure they're bluffing.

They won't quit. They'll come up with some excuse -- didn't two rescind their threat already? -- to stay, citing "the company needs me" or "loyalty to my friends." Truth is, they know they can't get that kinda work for that kinda money ANYWHERE ELSE these days.

Personally, if I were their boss, I'd take their comments as evidence that they were no longer committed to the company and I'd boot 'em out right now.

But I'm not their boss.


I'm just




Tansy Gold

[bread_and_roses]

59. where's that "jump, you fuckers" photo when you need it?

cause that's what I say to them. hope they do quit, and end up in a tent city on the outskirts of Detroit or similar "rust belt" town. though of course, i'm sure they've socked away enough to retire to Costa Rica, or where-ever.

[Ghost Dog]

63. Will this do?

Jump you fuckers (version).

(Not sure if music is original. Image is my own screen capture)

Hmmm. Try here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yge311sFhC8

[bread_and_roses]

66. good enough! thanks!

[Ghost Dog]

72. OK.

:evilgrin:

[DemReadingDU]

61. video toon - Are you unemployed?

12/4/09 Are you *officially* unemployed? The reported rate actually excludes millions of jobless Americans.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ulu3SCAmeBA

and take a similar quiz,

Who’s officially unemployed?
To determine the unemployment rate, the government conducts a monthly survey of 60,000 households. Only those who say they are out of work, available to work and actively job-hunting are counted as jobless. How do you think these individuals would be classified?

https://news.fidelity.com/news/article.jhtml?guid=/FidelityNewsPage/pages/officially-unemployed-fq03-p1&topic=economy

[TalkingDog]

68. The Independent: UK economy to drop out of top 10

Britain seems doomed to be relegated from the "premier league" of international economies over the next few years - with serious implications for its diplomatic status and international "clout". Stagnation at home and rapid economic growth in developing economies will push the UK as low as 11th in the global pecking order by 2015, according to analysis by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

Having clawed up to fourth place by the start of this decade, the recession has already seen Britain overtaken by China, Italy and France, and it seems likely that the slide will get worse.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/sean-ogrady-uk-economy-to-drop-out-of-worlds-top-10-1835493.html

Wow.....

[54anickel]

79. And the US being overtaken by 2020...hmmm, is that why we're continuing down the path of

the Military Industrial Complex? Gotta wonder how well that strategy will work now that we need to import nearly all the materials and products these days.

[Demeter]

85. What Cannot Continue, Will Not Continue

but how long, oh Lord, must we wait? And is there any way we could speed it up a little?